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Vizsla
26th Apr 2003, 20:08
What can be deduced from White House story that US will ask UN to intervene in N.Korea muscle flexing.....
Could it be that bookmakers are not giving the same odds as Iraq

Hilico
27th Apr 2003, 04:13
Let me think...how much oil is there in North Korea?

Unwell_Raptor
27th Apr 2003, 04:23
The oil argument is way too simplistic. North Korea has a limited number of nuclear weapons and a huge standing army. The Dear Leader is possibly mad enough to use them. It is unrealistic to reply with nuclear weapons because geography means that South Korea, Japan, and, above all, China would be in line for the fallout.

Conventional political logic does not apply here, and diplomacy has to be given its chance.

tony draper
27th Apr 2003, 04:58
NK is just begging for a decapitation strike, get the intelligence right, when that loon and his henchmen are in one place hit the tit,and bang!!, problem solved.

mrsurrey
2nd May 2003, 10:27
The North Korean regime's first priority is regime survival.

The regime knows very well that a serious agressive act will spell the end for them.

They only want the nuclear bomb to blackmail more money from the USA and discourage attack. The USA's just making it clear the first ain't gonna happen whilst trying to get some international support.

I think it's best if we just sit here whilst tens of thousands die in their prison villages/towns every year. After all, I don't want to provoke a terrorist attack that kills hundreds of westerners.

Paterbrat
2nd May 2003, 22:08
To date the N Korean diplomacy has consisted of agressive begging, or demands with menaces. Their incompetance in managing their economy is matched only by their beligerance and perception of the world in general in an adverserial manner. It is going to be an 'interesting ' exercise in dealing with them, preferably through China.

Chaffers
3rd May 2003, 00:34
Though as Drapes has noticed much easier since the Gulf. Any leader planning to stand up to the States now knows that they are going to be first on the menu rather than sipping sherry on a plateau whilst their minnions are slaughtered.

They can be clever blokes those Gumps can. Nice to see deterrence theory being put to some use other than pontificating.

lunkenheimer
3rd May 2003, 03:31
'Gumps'?? At least it sounds better than 'Septic'...:}

Back to the thread...A war in N. Korea would certainly have the potential to be more bloody than Iraq, for both sides, due to the terrain, mainly. Of course, China would likely jump in to avoid having the US army end up on their border, so the net result could be similar to Europe in WW II with the Soviets on the east and the rest of the Allies on the west.

Paterbrat
3rd May 2003, 04:01
I believe that the Chinese are going to be increasingly interested in the stance taken by N Korea given that it is they who to a large extent prop up the present regime. Their contributions of food and oil go a long way to being all that stands between the N Koreans and total breakdown. The aggressive posturing presently being exibited by N Korea is having the effect of focussing US attention in a manner that is far from the previous administrations before and which was more appeasement oriented.
It is also co-incidental with the S Korean's anti-US demands for the withdrawal of US troops which would in fact suit the present administration very well. The present situation has large numbers of US troops in a comparitively vulnerable site between the two Koreas. Recent demands from S Korea may well be acted upon and the US may move some of these troops out of harms way to a more rearward though still geopoliticaly tactical position and where they would be more of a nuisance to China than where they are now.
China may also be increasingly concerned about the threat perception by Japan who might feel obliged to begin working on countermeasures to counter what it feels is an increasingly dangerous and unstable situation. Japan's natural present ally will be the US and not China who's surrogate N Korea is percieved to be.

Wiley
3rd May 2003, 05:19
I don’t know if it made the news outside Australia, but a North Korean ship was boarded by Australian Special Forces 150 miles (?) off the New South Wales coast two weeks ago after it had been seen dropping off 50 kg of heroin in Victoria.

Now I don’t think ‘private enterprise’ is the term that comes immediately to mind when one thinks of the North Korean merchant fleet, so it’s not too much of a stretch to say with some confidence that someone – and someone pretty senior – in the North Korean Government would have been behind – or at least fully aware – of this shipment.

Many assert that Australia is little more than the 51st state of the USA. I wonder what political mileage the US Government would have made of this had the North Koreans been caught red-handed at this time dropping off a multi million dollar load of dope off the coast one of ‘the mainland’ US States?



As for what’s actually happening between the US and North Korea as opposed to ‘what if?”: while I think the US will play extreme hard ball with the North Koreans after their recent successes in Iraq (however chimeral that success may prove to be in the long term), I believe they’ve got sense enough to allow China to take the front running in sorting Kim and his coterie out. (God, I hope they do.)

As much as the South Koreans might emotionally like the idea of re-uniting their country, I believe that in the current parlous economic climate, they would much prefer to see some face-saving solution to the crisis that stops well short of a total collapse of the North Korean regime. If the fourteen years since German re-unification are anything to go by, South Korea would be damn near bankrupted if it had to take on the total basket case that is North Korea as the West Germans did with East Germany.

For example, imagine trying to incorporate the million-strong North Korean Army into a national army… and, (given the experience in Russia with many of not most people’s behaviour when the totalitarian brakes were removed), what the many hundreds of thousands of ex North Korean soldiers will turn to when they’re discharged into the (non)workforce? As for South Korean industry and manufacturing… the mind boggles at the problems they’ll face trying to find jobs for (and actually get production from) people who’ve existed under a strict Stalinist system, with all its massive corruption and inefficiencies, for almost sixty years. I think the term ‘steep learning curve’ doesn’t do the potential problem even a modicum of justice.

Whichever way it goes, ‘interesting times ahead’ might be an apt phrase for Korea.

Vizsla
3rd May 2003, 18:23
Wiley,

Please, please, wait in line, UK were the 51st State as soon as Blair caught the glitz of being a President with all the trappings.