Complete Shutdown?

[christep]

I ask merely as a very concerned SLF (so please be gentle with me) ...

TVB news has just reported that an internal memo suggests a very strong possibility that CX could suspend its entire operation in the near future!

Any insider care to comment? Quite scary if true!

[shimmydamper]

yeah, I saw it to.
it said that cx only carries 6000 people a day at the moment, down from 30000 a day.
and no bookings for easter as well.

s.

[Wirraway]

Saturday April 12, 11:46 PM AEST
Cathay May Halt Passenger Flights in May
By Rico Ngai

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways is considering stopping all passenger flights in May due to a sharp fall in the number of travelers amid fears over SARS, the pneumonia-like epidemic that is sweeping through the former British colony.

"We forecast that the number of passengers could fall to less than 6,000 per day in May in which case we will have to consider grounding the entire passenger fleet," a Cathay Pacific's internal Internet posting sighted by Reuters said.

Cathay is currently carrying less than 10,000 passengers per day compared to the usual passenger levels of more than 30,000, the memo said.

The firm's executives were not immediately available to comment.

"We are literally hemorrhaging cash -- approximately US$3 million per day. The current strategy is simply to stem the bleeding and buy time," Nick Rhodes, Cathay Director of Flight Operations said in the grave memo.

Rhodes was citing a briefing given by the airline's chief executive officer David Turnbull on Friday.

Rhodes said the airline currently has canceled about 42 percent of its flights and the remaining flights are operating at a load factor of 30-35 percent. Load factor indicates the number of paying customers as a proportion of seats available.

Hong Kong's Airport Authority said on Saturday about 33 percent of the total number of scheduled flights for April has been canceled.

Cathay, Asia's fourth largest airline with a turnover of more than HK$33 billion (US$4.23 billion) in 2002, issued its first-ever profit warning on Friday citing adverse impacts by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus and the war on Iraq.

The warning hammered Cathay's shares to their 16-month low, closing at HK$8.95 on Friday. They had lost nearly a quarter of their value in the last three weeks when SARS first reared its head in Hong Kong in March.

Uncertainties ahead of the airline increased when the World Health Organization issued an advisory on April 2 urging travelers to postpone visits to Hong Kong in light of the city's failure to contain the spread of the pneumonia-like disease.

Cathay has already stopped all "non-essential" expenditure and it is offering voluntary unpaid leave.

"If there is not a miracle cure for SARS soon and a sudden withdrawal of the WHO advisory against travel to Hong Kong, the cuts are going to have to be deeper," the memo said.

The measures include involuntary unpaid leave and job sharing, it said.

"Whatever scheme is agreed, the company is determined that every employee will share the pain equally. We are all in this together," it said.

"Even if all employees worked for nothing at present, we would still be losing nearly US$2 million per day. Any savings will only buy time," it added

[Detour]

Cathay's Press statement on 12th April:

<<Cathay Pacific has no plans to stop operation

Cathay Pacific has no plans as of now to stop operation at any future date.

Despite the current difficult situation with 42% of the Cathay Pacific schedule cancelled, the airline is maintaining its network and providing scheduled services as much as possible.

Cathay Pacific has considered a number of contingency measures to maintain its services, preserve cash and minimize expenditure. Some of these measures are already in place such as stopping all promotional and advertising activities. More measures will be implemented as and when necessary. We certainly hope the situation will improve soon. Cathay Pacific will continue to work closely with the Hong Kong community to overcome the
current challenges together.>>

[big moosey]

This was 'leaked' out by someone who clearly wants to see the airline fall apart, possibly someone who lost their job?!

I hope now that all of you who are still paying 5% to the union to keep these people will seriously reconsider if this is the thanks you get for it.

[jtr]

moosey

The info was put on the anthraCX site where any CURRENT EMPLOYEE can see it.


If Nick wants to go around shaking the cage with suspect quotes on the company website, then he may want to give the communications dept a call first.

5% huh? Showing your intimate knowledge of the present situation.

[Flying Bagel]

Let's stop the union/management rhetoric for a second. I think this goes well beyond the realm of such discussion.

It's a bad time for everyone, not only the pilots, but the cabin crew, ground staff, etc. The unfortunate thing is that there is no way to predict when the epidemic will be contained. Original estimates of the summertime may perhaps be a bit optimistic. In light of this, I'm not surprised about the shutdown at all. Now whether or not it's just unpaid leave, or actual layoffs (which I assume will be coming), I'm hoping is just the former.

And would Cathay recover if it does end? Has this done irrepairable damage to the Hong Kong economy?

Have to stay optimistic, I suppose.

[big moosey]

I was actually talking about the incorrect leak to the press.

[Flying Bagel]

Cathay is quite a large company, and what Nick Rhodes said is definitely not confined to the pilots alone. All you need is one dumbass with a triggerfinger to leak this info to his or her cousin who works at the T.V. station, and that would be it.

[Fly747]

We are in deep trouble here, it was like a ghost town when I came throught the terminal yesterday. I reckon the loads are even lower than the press suggest. The only way to protect the business may well be to stop flying altogether and ride out the storm. Us truckies will keep flying the freight so there is something to rebuild from.

[jtr]

74, I overheard a conversation along the same lines a few days ago. How exactly are they going to do what you propose, bearing in mind contracts, seniority lists etc?

[Cpt. Underpants]

If it gets to that (after voluntary LOA etc.) last in, first out.

[thegypsy]

I seem to remember that Tony Tyler always maintained that Cathay had 'deep pockets' so surely you are all worrying unnecessarily??

[RRAAMJET]

Just my 2-pence worth, and I'm trying to cheer you guys up....

I think this should be analysed as a temporary blip for CX, not a requirement for fundamental re-structuring such as we are seeing here in the US. When this epidemic passes, Asian travel will rebound in its normal high-yield way...I think, and hope, that N.R. and the other managers at CX are smart enough not to force downsizing prematurely, or tinker with a business model that clearly matched Hong Kong well. You want to keep as many of your folks landing current and ready to respond for the inevitable re-bound....

Hope I'm right, hope you guys are okay...best wishes under difficult circumstances.:(

[JetDriverWannabe]

Guess it would be safe to assume that all recruitment activity has been put on hold then. May be I shouldn't post my cadet application form so soon. :(

[Ozpilot414]

i just got the call.... my interview has been cancelled...post-poned
:{

[Fly747]

jtr I fly classic, so if seniority is taken into account then those above me will need to be trained back onto the classic. We all hope it is short lived so there is not much point doing that if they then have to be re-trained back again. It is a huge problem and management will have to consider some drastic options which will not be to everyone's liking.

[jtr]

74, we all have it pretty well spelled out in the contract, retraining or not, the fact of the matter is, there are a bit under 1000 people who hold seniority to you (I assume you joined the list when everyone else did) which means, if CX are going to lay peolpe off, and if they are going to adhere to the contract (big if), then it is last on, first off, just like it says on your contract. Don't see anything about involuntary unpaid leave, or anything similar in the contract, just redundancies.
Sadly the feeling might be different if it weren't for the current climate, but in simple terms, try telling a 9 year f/o why he should take unpaid leave so that the freighter Captain who took his command slot, and the S/O who joined against the ban don't get laid off.
I don't wish redundancy on anyone, but should it come to that, then there is a mechanism in place for that. If it gets that far up the list that it starts to affect those on the freighter, then imo your saving grace may be that they don't want to retrain guys twice (assuming things will pick up) so they may keep you on, whilst paying guys above you to sit on their asses at home.
I know it is a complex issue, but in simple terms, there is a procedure in place, a contractual obligation between employee, and employer, and if they want to start screwing with it, they are just going to have to spend more time in court.

Looking foward to shortly's wisdom:hmm:

[raitfaiter]

And, of course, since Murray won, legal backing that a contract with your employees is legally binding........:suspect:

[Chimbu chuckles]

I posted this on D&G...I'm just stunned at what Govts are letting the media get away with. At some point we're going to have to get media controls before these morons destroy the world economy single handed...what did more economic damage to the US...the 9/11 terrorists or the media/govt over reaction after??


A Doctor, who happens to be a old friend of my Uncle, was interviewed on a Sydney radio station today...he's a Virologist or whatever the specialist label is for this sort of bug.

He's simply dismayed at the level of panic caused by media and Govt alike over what is, essentially, nothing.

One statistic he used was 35000/annum die of Typical Flu in the US...think about that !!...it's nearly 100/day, every day, week in and week out, year after year.

What are we up to now...200 spread over Asia and North America in the last several months...even if it was 2000 is it worth the reaction being ellicited by frenzied Media bored with the war?

60 Minutes report last night drew direct comparisons with 1919 Flu pandemic and the Black Plague...suggesting 747s are the rats of the 21st century

They ask Doctors who have been working around the clock and who are exhausted leading questions get the sort of emotional answers which lead to panic, and do so with no thought other than to ratings.

What price freedom of the press?

40 million people died of Flu in Europe over something like 2 years just after WW1...that's 55555/day...in a period in history before anyone understood personal hygene and before antiviral drugs were invented.

Where's the comparison??

A few times every century a bug comes along and knocks off a chunk of the population...this, in the Doctors professional opinion, is not one of those.

Chuck

[Eddington the Rodger]

Reading and believing in the lines of a contract in the face of a potential global pandemic is foolishly blind.
How long do you think CX can operate before they have to make
painful decisions?
This whole outbreak will take months to heal the economic and financial mess even if sars can me isolated at this moment.
This whole SARS issue is just the beggining of a very real and
frightening outbreak.
It is an absolute tragedy for the whole Asian region.
Potentially a tragedy on an International scale.
The simple fact is...everyday more people are being infected and more people are dying.

[gissmonkey]

Eddington the Rodger, read the previous post, that all it is, a simple flu. Don't try and add fuel to an already out-of-control fire, go join the media.........................

[compressor stall]

Not only last night was I having this discussion with the local medics.

The death rate is "only" 4% - not dissimilar to influenza. Why the hype? Thousands more people are dying of many other equally or more infectious diseases every day, and where is the rush?

Its also not as if entire planeloads of people are getting ill from the recirc air either. All it means is that the host can take it to another corner of the planet, where it is still not that deadly. Aircraft take all sorts of diseases from one corner of theplanet to another. There would scarcely be one amongst us who have not caught a mild influenza or cold from aircraft travel. Yet this virus is not infecting people by the plane load.


P.S. How you doing? - you've been lying low!

[shortly]

This company will weather the storm. Some very difficult and painful decisions will have to be taken to stop the haemorrhageing of our excellent reserves of cash. Seniority in unpaid leave? I doubt that will be a consideration. I imagine the company will require all, that is everybody, to take either 1 week a month unpaid leave or a 25% pay cut. It is interesting and uncommented on by the pit bulls that other airlines around the globe are taking this opportunity to lay off lots more of our colleagues. Yet our company, once again in time of adversity, states that there are NO PLANS TO LAY OFF STAFF and that all contingency planning is designed to 1) Save the Company and 2) Save all our jobs. It seems to me that there is a serious rift between the AOA rank and file and the AOA leadership. One wants to help the company, the other is again only interested in themselves - which is which lol. If it does unfortunately come to redundancies then I would think what you are flying now will be a factor. Good luck to all - stay healthy.

[Cpt. Underpants]

Shorts - You spend WAAY too much time on the internet (lol, rotflmao and other inane acronyms). I think we all recognize that this is very serious. There is an issue here on contractual obligations: As CX well knows, a contract is binding in law, and my contract states, in essence, "last in, first out." I might be prepared to allow my elected representatives negotiate around this, if certain "other" issues could be addressed. This really has come at a bad time for the lads on the 3rd and 10th floors, hasn't it? First the two contra-judgments, then this..?

One issue really bothers me here: is there a real desire on CX's part to offer stable careers, or a reluctance to part with 6 month's salary if one is made (temporarily) redundant? As our MD and DFO have already stated, this crisis will not be used to make "opportunistic raids" on our COS, so I hope for everyone’s sake that this clause still stands. This might just be the force majeur issue we could ride to end the impasse between the AOA and CX, its workgroups and our (inadequate) personnel department.

When all of this is over, I predict big changes on the horizon, not least of which a possible early move for a newly-appointed quick-fingered gunslinger on the 10th floor..? How is the inopportune "internal memo" leak being viewed up there? I couldn't imagine anyone in Swires being terribly happy with Billions being wiped off the value of the company for lack of a little "diplomacy".

[shortly]

Of course it might be a case of the knickers calling the bloomers black CU. Mein Gott, there are portions of your post with which I agree, must be a first for me. I hope and pray that all sensibly minded people do use this major tragedy as a force for conciliation between t'management and the rank and file. I don't think the issues which recently went against the company are over with, appeals etc to come. I understand a degree of cynicism on the part of some/many of our colleagues and indeed from some in management. But I hope the modest, more moderate majority of us prevail and we do get things back together as best we can. GL. By the way the acronyms, from the perspective of a two fingered typist, are anything but inane. More a Godsend.

[raitfaiter]

As I understand it the HKAOA is offering a complete return to normal working in this time of crisis...........let's hope that there is a reciprocation when the crisis is over.

The WHO on the World Service last night sounded a great deal more worried about SARS than the apologists above, in fact it seems to me that attitudes like 'don't worry it's only flu....' were part of the reason that all this got out of control. The WHO said they were increasingly worried that, amongst the 9 that died yesterday, some were fully fit before contracting the disease, and yet still died, refuting the suggestion that it was a disease that only killed those already in some sort of respiratory distress. More info can be found for both pax and crew on the Center for Disease Control website, based in Atlanta, which is in overall control of this sort of situation.

For those who say that SARS only has a 4% death rate, a: who wants to volunteer to be one of the 4%? b: the world population is now 4.8 billion, many, many more than in the 1919 influenza pandemic, and the spread of vectors through all sorts of travel could turn this really nasty. Multiply 4.8 billion by 4%, and see what the answer is, and you'll see why the WHO and CDC are worried. Hiding under the covers over this will not help to find a solution, and in fact may make things a great deal more difficult to control.

Finally, while worrying about your one weeks unpaid leave, spare a thought for the local people in Hong Kong, attempting to get through this difficult and fightening time under a drastically underfunded medical system overseen by a bunch of bureacrats who are obviously desparately out of their depth.

[Kaptin M]

Excellent post, raitfaiter. Hope you don`t mind, but I have cut and pasted the "guts" of it (with due acknowledgement to you) on the D & G forum.

The "she`ll be right mate", "let`s ignore it, and it will go away" mindset of some, is a great cause for concern.
Perhaps some short term, drastic measures - such as cancelling SOME flights NOW - will allow ALL of us to get back to a fully operational position much sooner than doing nothing, and helping spread SARS farther afield, faster.

[D.Lamination]

Dear Kaptin M,

Im afraid your Dr. Mahahtir solution (ban everything) won't work.

The 1919 flu pandemic mentioned above was spread entirely by ship and land travel.

[Life as a journey]

Excellent reading:

'Tidal Wave', by Robert Prechter Jr.

'Achilles Shield', by Philip Bobbit (not the bro to Lorraine).

Before you wind out a vitriolic response to Prechter, take a long, hard, objective look at his record.

Same goes for Bobbit.

How does this relate to SARS?

Any replication of mine, here, regarding the research and conclusions of these two giants would be a poor one indeed, so just go out and buy the book yourself, or go to a library.

Go ahead. Wail and gnash the teeth. Then hit me with a few abusive emails or posts, but the Dow is set to go to 1000, minimum, after 300 years of a larger trend upwards.

SARS is one road; ghastly nuclear explosions in major cities, another.

And we are at war again - after an end to what is being referred to as the Long War (1914 - 1990), this time with global terrorism, pitted against against a nation-state (USA) that has proved it is not going to sit by and idly watch the virtual nation-state of Al Qaeda tear its avowed enemy apart.

Prepare for a long and difficult 50 years.

And say goodbye to some major icons; in this case, CX (SARS).

[sean1]

I though it was 4% mortality rate of the number of infected cases.Not 4% of the global pop.

[raitfaiter]

sean1, you are quite correct.

But how many infected cases ARE there? India is ominously silent on this, and given their governments attitude towards the HIV/AIDS pandemic, who knows?:uhoh:

[PCav8or]

One of my Chinese friends mentioned that a local Hong Kong daily has reported one of the CX Cabin Crew is a suspected SARS case. Any truth to this?

[christep]

Yes, a male CX cabin crew is a confirmed SARS sufferer. However, it is not clear whether he contracted the disease onboard or elsewhere. Statistically, I think you would expect one or two CX personnel to catch the disease if 1400 people out of a population of 7 million have it, particularly since they will be one of the more mobile groups.

[ronnie123]

CX Cabin Crew say he got it from his wife, who had friends in Amoy.:confused:

[christep]

That's interesting ronnie - do you know if his wife is suffering symptoms or is she somehow an immune carrier?