Six months on from Sept 11th

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

At the time I advised delaying major training investment for 6 months. After that period a much more sensible assessment of the state of the market could be made. Those 6 months have now passed.. .. .Since Sept11 about 400 IR's have been issued by CAFUU. Assuming none of these have found work, and that there were 200 unemployed pilots already out there with low hours prior, at the moment the queue is about 600 long.. .. .I think most of the experienced pilots who lost their positions at Gill, Virgin, Air2000, British Midland et al have now been soaked up into new companies or their old ones. Not all though and some are on temporary contract for the summer only.... .. .The large and small professional FTO's seem pretty full. There certainly was not a wholesale loss of business following Sept11. There is something like 230 pilots under training due to get their CPL/IR Frzn ATPL in the next six months.. .. .I am for the time being ignoring pilots from abroad able and willing to come to the UK for work.. .. .Most airline hiring is now either announced, complete or under way for the summer 2002. There has frankly been only a tiny amount and I doubt that more than a dozen low time guys got anything. Which means that when the Autumn hiring season comes around for low time guys there is going to be something like 820 in the queue.. .. .In the very good years when things were really booming there were perhaps 400 airliny jobs available each year. There is therefore something approaching a good 2 years backlog that will probably take 4 years to clear completely and return us to a 'good' hiring market.. .. .I would guess that BA will start sponsorship again within 12 months and that the smaller players will follow cautiously the year after.. .. .The actual industry will recover quite strongly. Many airlines over reacted to Sept11 and cut capacity a little too far. Finding staff travel or standby tickets on a great many flights is nigh on impossible... The UK economy has weathered the threat of even a mild recession very well. The rise of low cost airlines is growing the market for air travel at a rate that has not been witnessed since the birth of the inclusive tour jet package holiday to the Med in the 1970's.. .. .War in Iraq could spoil the whole party in a big way but speculation about that is too wide a topic to tackle here and by me.. .. .On the GA front things are pretty miserable. Flying Instructor jobs just have not happened this year. The mags should be full of ads for summer instructors but they aren't. For every slot I have heard of by word of mouth there have been a dozen over qualified applicants within 24hrs. Too many PPL's are going to the USA still, too many are taking the fully integrated courses rather than modular and not many people want to learn to fly as an idle curiosity post Sept11. In addition there has been a marked spike in the number of FI ratings issued as many low time graduates faced with no airline job tried to dive into instructing.. .. .This has resulted in a drop in the terms and conditions for many instructors at the bottom of the food chain. You will not make back the cost of your FI rating this summer and possibly not the next.. .. .If I were considering a CPL or an IR right now I would advise myself (!) not to bother.. .. .The PPL and some hour building in the US might be fine. Starting a distance learning package for the ATPL exams might also be a reasonable move.. .. .I would stay/find as well paid a job outside of aviation as possible and build up my training fund for that IRT fail. I would bide my time. There is no sense rushing to join the back of a massive queue when the annual fee for being in that queue is something like £2000. . .. .Another 6 months will tell a lot.. .. .What are peoples thought?. .. .WWW

[Rowley]

A very good synopsis.. .. .I believe what you are saying is true and statistically correct. The situation will pick up a little sooner than was predicted but we need to wait for the 'soak up' to happen!. .. .The instructor/PPL market, from what I have noticed, is not all doom and gloom. My local school which only offers PPL/IMC is bursting at the seems with students and similarly instructors. Their problem is a lack of aircraft. The instructors there are all waiting for the rise to enable them to move on.. .. .It is my opinion that this rise will be fairly dramatic next October02/February03 when the demand/ recruitment is met for the following summer.. .I believe that this year they maybe over reacted to the amount of pilots they are going to need and so they will hire a fair few to counter act this for summer 03.. .. .Low Costs can only continue to grow and grow which as we all know is good starting ground for most low hour pilots, especially if going through the CTC scheme.. .. .Now,as WWW has said, would be a good time to go down the modular route!. .. .Well thats my two penneths worth. Probably all wrong but well, atleast I had a go! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Roll Eyes]" src="rolleyes.gif" /> . .. .There are people who dream of doing the things they want, but then are the people who just do them! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" />. . . . <small>[ 27 March 2002, 11:20: Message edited by: Rowley ]</small>

[JetMouse]

WWW I agree mostly with what you say – however the point about there being 800 odd people qualified and looking for jobs is all well and good – but are you assuming a 100% conversion rate from qualification to job?. .. .As we all know through many people’s (often bitter) experience on this forum there are quite plainly many who have a (f)ATPL who unfortunately are not of the right calibre or fit into the corporate culture of the employing airline...even in the “good old days” only a small percentage of those who were qualified were picking up jobs…. .. .Now the question is how many of those 800 have done the GAPANs/CPI and morrisby tests/interview training or even know how to write a decent CV? All of which will give you at least more of a fighting chance…. .. .I will probably get flamed for this from all sorts of people who have done the above and still can’t get work – but are they representative of the majority? Just a thought…

[low n' slow]

Interesting thoughts welshman!. .Where did you get all the numbers from?. .I also believe that many airlines overreacted to the tragedy, however, many airlines found buisness to be a struggle even before the 11th of september. Many airlines took advantage of the tragedy to cut away the company's deadloads such as ineffective employees and routes not doing too well aswell as making customers believe the increased fares were justified. Perhaps these increases in travel costs would have been justified even before, but by blaming it all on the crash, it made it more understandable. . . But your analasys seems to be correct, I just want to know where the numbers came from.... .. .regards/lns

[Desk-pilot]

WWW,. .. .Thanks for a very interesting and informative post which I have to say leaves me (and I suspect others) with a difficult dilemma. I have as mentioned on an ealier thread put my hand up in the hope of securing a redundancy package which would amount to around half the cost of an integrated at Oxford. If I don't leave my desk job this side of the Summer the opportunity for severance will diminish (it is by no means guaranteed now).. .. .It seems to me that whilst airline flights are very full yield is down. Capacity is being added back on the line - the upside of this being it will require more pilots and crews but increasing capacity will further exacerbate the industry's problems.. .. .I was banking on the effects of the retirement bubble and the cessation of airline sponsored cadets meaning an improved situation for self-sponsored wannabees by the later part of 2003 - after reading your post I wonder if I'm being optimistic.. .. .I do feel (IMHO) that you are most likely to be recruited by a major within the first 6 months of Graduation - much more than that and any airline would be concerned about your currency. The absence of instructing jobs is a worrying sign. I am being taught PPL by an ATPL with 3000 hours and so am worried that if he can't get an airline job what hope does a 250hr OATS Graduate have?. .. .What we all need is a register of the percentage of unemployed pilots 6 months after Graduation from flying school. Not only would this reveal whether this really is a stupid/risky thing to do because only a very few make it or whether a majority of Graduates get jobs. It would also encourage the flying schools to work harder at helping their Graduates with employment. I for one would like to know if the extra £ OATS charge is reflected in higher pass marks or employment rates. We've got league tables for schools and Universities - why should Flying schools be able to take £50 000 off people and not have any published metrics?? It's that lack of transparency which worries me.. .. .All this however doesn't really help people decide what to do. The airline market is clearly expanding in trend terms but timing is everything. I know I want to fly - I just don't want to lose everything I've spent ten years working for in pursuit of a dream which could be scuppered entirely by reasons beyond my control such as conflict in the middle East. . .. .I'm in the position that I have a nice house and can afford to fly at weekends in a Warrior for fun - should I content myself with that? My head says I should but my heart is an entirely different matter.... .. .Desk-pilot

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The figures come from me talking to FTO's, and I have an inside man in both CAAFU and Flight Crew Licensing.... .. .Having moderated here for a number of years I am pretty well plugged into the sources of info needed to generate the figures.. .. .I agree there will not be 100% of conversion. However I left out low time guys coming to the UK from continental Europe. I think the two balance each other out leaving the figures as I pretty much said.. .. .Will post more later but right now its a lovely day and I am taking Miss Welshman out for a liquid lunch in the sun.. .. .Later,. .. .WWW

[GJB]

Sigh <img border="0" title="" alt="[Frown]" src="frown.gif" /> . .. .Wait another 6 months.. .. .Still at least I can see planes from my office window and God has sent an angel, in the form of a new secretary who must have come from the same loins as Jennifer Lopez <img border="0" title="" alt="[Razz]" src="tongue.gif" /> . .. .Good advice and interesting stuff - thanks to all for their contributions.. . . . <small>[ 27 March 2002, 13:41: Message edited by: GJB ]</small>

[wobblyprop]

My gut feeling is that what WWW is saying right and for good reason.. .. .I started distance learning last may when i was on the bench from my consultancy. Instead of paying (wasting) my train fare to guildhall i sat in my garden and read. I read a lot. By August i had finished the first 8 subjects and sat the exams. . .. .I left it for a month after i was made redudant.. .. .With another job under my belt i ordered the next half of the notes. Then 11-spet happened. What do i do? . .. .Well it wasn't until x-mas that i actually opened the first subject. Its now march and i'm half way through the second lot of notes. My g/f is more appealing than those notes, so i've taken my time.. .. .I plan to sit the next lot of exams in july/aug and then mop up.. .. .I was gutted when 11-sept happened. But, i've kept going because i knew it would pick up. It has so far and quicker than expected. After I've done my exams i'll look at the situtation and see what's going on. I've got the cpl and ir money saved so everything from no on is a bonus. At 25 hopefully age is still on my side.. .. .I want to keep my job as the income is always nice <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" /> . .. .Well its more of a storey but there you have it.. . . . <small>[ 27 March 2002, 13:54: Message edited by: wobblyprop ]</small>

[tailscrape]

WWW,. .. .Quite cogent and sensible posts. As indeed are everyone elses.. .. .I don't always agree with what you have said, but I think you are pretty accurate here.. .. .My two penneth's worth:. .. .I have been threatened by redundancy this winter. Luckily because of a strong BALPA Company Council, high BALPA membership and an upturn in business I will be lent by my employer to another UK 757 operator from May onwards along with 9 colleagues..... .. .I will be a fully paid up member of my company wearing another uniform and flying someone else's aircraft.. .. .What does this mean?. .. .I think it means airlines know things are improving, but are still being very cautious.. .. .I hope to see a little recruitment later this year, but it will remain very tough for low hours guys in the future.. .. .With the right type rating and experience, there are still jobs about. But without, I am not too sure..... .. .I would never suggest to people not to train, but if you do train now, expect a long wait, or at best a lot of luck!. .. .Be prepared to have to fly at clubs in your spare time at your own expense. Ask yourself if you will have enough money to do this after leaving your training.. .. .To all of you who need a job, good luck. Keep looking. It will happen, it just may take a while.. .. .And do seriously consider the CTC scheme. It got me my seat, and opportunities after that as well. An excellent outfit if you get in.. .. .So, to sum up:. .. .A few jobs knocking around this Winter I think for next year. But not lots....

[thparkth]

WWW:. .. .An interesting and informative post. But I do have a question.. .. .If there have been 400 IRs issues in the last six months, that means there are around 800 in a year. Is that a resonable supposition?. .. .You say that in a *good* year there are around 400 job openings. This would suggest that there are 400 excess pilots every year! Even allowing for the fact that these numbers are estimates, it is clear that there is an fundamental oversupply in the market, even before Sep 11th.. .. .It is clear that the "backlog" of excess pilots will *not* clear until the oversupply is corrected. .. .Is this a correct summary of the situation as you understand it or am I missing somthing?

[Gazeem2]

Don't forget to account for the famous retirement buldge.. .. .You know! The one that says over half of pilots currently employed are at least in their late forties or older.. .. .There is also a large stack at 50 plus. . .. .Some went after 09-11 but.... .. .It still remains a timebomb for the airlines.. .. .-Also_. .. .Terminal 5 is going to be built, air travel will increase, the tabloid readers will shortly be asking 'What happened on September 11th? Why can't I get a cheap flight to Tenerife?'.. .. .In the short term things aren't rosy, but if it is your bag, hang in there because in the medium term it WILL swing around.. .. . <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" /> If all else fails blind optimism and a pig headed refusal to face up to reality will see us through. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" />

[prob30]

Thank you WWW for the post.... .. .here is a thought to put the cat amongst the pidgeons.... .As we all know the best time to be snapped up is within 6 moths of getting and ATPL. Given that the best prediction of recovery is this coming winter, that should mean that graduates this summer and onwards are going to be in the hot seat should airlines start looking for low hour guys....but what for the other poor sods who graduated between september and now?...

[Cricketer]

Jetmouse. .. .In your opinion then if someone is capable of getting IR first time and no probs (major) with the flight training, they are going to be less likely to get a job had they done GAPAN and then taken two goes to get the IR and had many problems along the way? . .It seems interesting that people still cling to the myth that you need GAPAN to okay you to fly even if you can handle the training. Surely this must be a cause for concern, it seems that the CPL/IR issued by the CAA is not testing people for what they are going to be doing. You say many people are unsuitable to get jobs but pass the IR then why does the IR not test to a degree that.. .. .IMHO surely the point of the CPL/IR is to make you a commercial pilot - what is the point of the test if people can get through and not then get a job. I can understand that certain faces fit certain places and cultures but is it really fair to say that some with IR's just can't get any job.. .After all I would say that almost half the jobs that are got in this industry are through the old boys network and croneyism. Does it not strike anyone as strange that anything like this in any other industry would have the media throwing a fit and complaining about the 'institutional racism/nepotism/old boys network'. Quite simply any other industry would not allow it to the extent that it happens with the airline recruitment scene.

[JetMouse]

Cricketer. .. .What I am saying is that once you are qualified you join the level of all the other professionally qualified pilots who have been through the torment that is the ATPL knowledge and the CPL/IR - however this is plainly NOT enough to get you a job – quite simply look at the CTC scheme (one of the few schools getting low hour pilots jobs) you have to go through a host of psychometric/personality tests before they will even consider you for their course (which only a small proportion pass according to the CTC) and that is after you have jumped through the CAA’s hoops.... .. .The prevailing attitude of the schools in the past (in my opinion) has been to get you in to do the course and then tell you you’re capable of flying commercially (which of course is technically correct) however they are not testing you to see if you have the characteristics for command (ultimately what the airlines are after).. .. .Which brings me back to my original point - of those 800 WWW referred to, even though they have the licence, how many will have or have been tested for, what the airlines are after in a pilot? (GAPAN is only one small part of that – and you’re right if you’ve done the IR then you’ve proved you can fly) but it seems it takes more than a (f)ATPL to get a job and that is being dictated by those employing...

[wobblyprop]

At the risk of going off the subject.. .. .I went to one of the early pilot assist college open days. There was a lovely SFO from GO who was talking about training and the way GO select their pilot peeps.. .. .She said that the best thing to do before even paying for the Class 1 is to do the Morrisby/GAPAN test to see if you have what it takes. That way you (potentially) don't waste upto 18 months of your life and hard cash doing something you may only get a job in if you were the last pilot on earth - ok maybe thats a bit harsh.. .. .However, when i was up at the BE/Cabair FI sponsorship tests last week the modualr training manager Paul, said that the morrisby test were to see if you were capable of doing the ATPL theory in the first place.. .. .Paul also stated that he talks to fleet managers on a weekly basis. They all say they are desperate for pilots but the same old story about bean counters keeping the beans in their little leather pouches comes out. He also says that 'this is the best time, for young guys, like you, to train'. .. .Anyway thats four pence worth now. So still confused and still aiming for that job.

[Broken Wings]

WWW. .. .Excellent synposis but sadly for me I'm one of the 820 (5000 hours, Frozen ATPL[Full when MPA-LST obtained], ex-RAF VC10 Captain).. .I too hope that there was a slight over-reaction to 9/11 and that the airlines start hiring again in the autumn... we'll have to see though. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Frown]" src="frown.gif" />

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I acknowledge that for many readers it is already too late to delay the critical CPL and IR modules. For those job hunting at the moment I feel desperately sorry. There are several self sponsored AND ex-airline cadet guys out there that I have trained myself that are looking. It is very depressing to talk to them about stacking shelves and answering telephones when they worked so hard to get their licenses. They followed all the right advice, trained hard and well, and now they work in Tescos. Its very harsh. I often think that if I ever spawn a WWW-Junior I won't encourage him/her to get into aviation. A stable, lucrative and more social profession can be had for less money, less time and less risk. Earn enough to have a good share in something rather fun (I'll do the checkrides as crusty old grandpa Welshman!) and have a happier life and enjoy flying every time you feel like it.. .. .Getting back to topic.. .. .You will be at an advantage at your Sim assessment and at your interview if you did your IR within the last 6 months. Ideally you pass your IR last week, take the MCC this week and next week you have your first couple of interviews lined up.. .. .Looking at the timeline then one would perhaps decide that interviews might be becoming more readily available in Autumn 2004. You can work back 13months for the integrated and perhaps 18 months for the Modular from that target and arrive at a start date.. .. .Peter Moxhams article in Flyer was quite well balanced. I wrote and scolded them for not mentioning this forum and they apologised. In fact there is a bigger PPRuNe related article coming to Flyer in the future.... .. .I urge all Wannabes to join the IPA and subscribe to Co-pilot. Student membership of Balpa might be useful but less so than the first two. A swathe of info is available from these subscriptions.. .. .Nobody seems to think the industry has anything other than an expanding future. There will doubtless be a "shortage" in future years. As ever it will be marginal, limited and very short lived. But it IS all cyclical it HAS all happened before and it surely WILL happen again. Hopefully next time you will all be comfortably up a seniority list somewhere.. .. .Timing has always been critical in this industry. I have met several pilots who went through the 1990 crash. One I can think of got a job with Air UK a fortnight before all recruiting stopped. He hung onto his RHS through the lean early 1990's, made the LHS then moved to the RHS of a 737 in the late 1990's. He became a captain as the millenium turned and now in his early 30's he is well set up for a long and fruitful aviation career. Another chap I know well had a job offer with what would recently have been called British Regional in 1990. The offer was withdrawn as troops poured into the Gulf. He went back to being a desk driver, scratched around GA ferrying old nails about for maintenance and doing a bit of instructing usually just for petrol money. He got his break in 1998 back into Regional on a Another Technical Problem <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" /> and after 2 years moved on to a well known airline on a jet. Hovering near the bottom of the seniority list as the Jets ploughed into the twin towers he was to find himself redundant by Christmas. He had a big mortgage on a new house, had just paid off his training debts from a decade ago and had little in the bank to tide him over. No option but to take a quick job showing people around houses on behalf of an estate agent chain. This is a chap with 2,500hrs ATPL and TP + EFIS Jet experience.. .. .The Air UK FO started his job a fortnight before the British Regional FO would have done. Two weeks. Two weeks that altered imeasurably the path of their careers. Get the timing right and it all seems so effortless. Get it wrong and the industry will do its level best to crush every bit of enthusiasm out of you.. .. .Don't kid yourself or anyone else either that LUCK has a significant part to play.. .. .As the curse goes, may you live in interesting times.. .. .Good luck,. .. .WWW

[Rowley]

To me them two weeks could only have been luck! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" /> . .. .No matter how depressing these posts become, you'll never stop me trying. In the end WWW, the only people who fail are the people who dont try!. .. .It would seem like you are trying to breed a forum of failures with your words of discouragement! Shame on you! <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" /> . .. .This may be posted in blind hope, but i'll never get to where i want to be without the FATPL. So i intend to train next month. My current job will still be here in a years time. So what have i got to lose? Absolutely nothing....and everything to gain!. .. .Im not having a go WWW <img border="0" title="" alt="[Razz]" src="tongue.gif" /> <img border="0" title="" alt="[Razz]" src="tongue.gif" />

[batty]

Cricketer. .. .An IR (at the end of basic training) is merely a test to let you fly an aircraft as a single pilot in Instrument conditions , as its name suggests. It is not a personality test or anything the like and neither should it be, it is a handling test.. .. .An airline wants someone with an IR to show that they are able to fly but it is then the airline who has to decide if you will fit in with the company culture. Each airline is different in its ways from the British Airways to the Ryanairs.. .. .I am sure in what ever field you have come from that you have worked with people who are academicaly qualified and able to do the job but are an absolute nightmare to work with. There are also people who have the academics who still cant do the job. The airline industry is the same but generaly as flight crew you work much closer to your workmates than in an office. It is also much more safty critical that you are able to interact as a team.. .. .CRM is taught on the MCC course but if your a prat to start with the MCC will teach you nothing.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rowley. Fair enough. I am not trying to discourage anyone. I have spent the last 5 years encouraging people in every way possible. I am merely offering advice. To be heeded or ignored at will.. .. .Good luck,. .. .WWW

[G - HIGH]

WWW,. . Can you tell me what the IPA and co-pilot are? . .. .I'm always on the look out for new resources, and I don't think i've heard of these two before.. .. .Cheers. .G-high

[Rowley]

Advice is heeded mr Welshman <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" />

[A and C]

WWW the only thing that I would take issue with is the attitude that once the CPL/IR is passed that you join a "queue" the fact is that when a company fires the gun in the recrutment race all people who are licenced for the position start from the same position.......the top of the aplication form.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Co-pilot was a Gatwick based organisation that produced a monthly newsletter about which airlines were hiring etc. I can't find a link on the web to them though which is a bit worrying... IPA is the Independent Pilots Association for all those that have asked via email.. .. .On the matter of queues. Its only a phrase, but I think a useful one.. .. .You are an average pilot. Most of the other people applying with your experience will also be average like yourself. You may think you have some advantage in experience, character or history. In fact this is unlikely.. .. .Therefore I feel you are in a queue in so much as your CV is in a pile of - say - 800 odd. You have no real reason, being an average low time pilot, to be at the top or indeed the bottom of that pile. The size of the pile (queue in my terms) is of direct interest to you and it was this that I was trying to quantify.. .. .I am quite disspassionate about the whole thing. I always assumed things would take longer, cost more and work out worse than they actually did for me. I suggest you do the same regardless of a strong spirit of determination. . .. .The situation at the moment is terrible. Nothing has moved for 6 months job wise and nothing will for another 6 months. That means that there is an entire years worth of new low time pilots out there chasing every job. That is a disaster for the job hunter compared to pre-Sept11. There is no use pretending otherwise. I can make all the encouraging noises you like but it doesn't change the facts. Were someone to turn my clock back a couple of years I would want to hear the realistic disspassionate number driven analysis I tried here to provide. Thats why I provided it. Its the kind of thing I would have like to have read. . .. .I do remember what its like - my Instrument Rating is less than two and half years old.... .. .All I have said is booking a CPL course or an Instument Rating is not a good idea right now in my opinion. A PPL, an ATPL correspondence course or some hours building is fine.. .. .I think sometimes that you need to know some people with all the licenses and ratings who can't find a job. In fact can't get an interview. In fact can't get an airline to acknowledge a letter or even enter them into their records. I know people like that at the moment. Good people. Clever, witty, personable and talented people. People you'd like to go for a pint with. People who would make great airline pilots. When you then see new people come along in a dang hurry to spend £50,000 in the expectation of beating them to a job you gain a new perspective on things.... .. .Not that any of this is going to stop anyone. Nor should it.. .. .WWW

[RVR800]

&gt;WWW. .&gt;Since Sept11 about 400 IR's have been issued by &gt;CAFUU. .. .This represents a large increase since . .2000/1 when 183 professional IRs were issued. .and only 30 Private IRs were issued. .. .If you dont believe me then see their stats:. .. .<a href="http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fcl_LRIssues2000_01.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/srg_fcl_LRIssues2000_01.pdf</a>

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hmm, see what you are saying. That 183 figure seems wrong though. You've got about 8 IRT full time examiners available which would mean they only pass 22 people a year each... There would have been about 180 students at OATS alone in 2000/2001... Something awry with those figures I think. . .. .After all, more than 183 pilots retired from BA alone in that year so if the figure quoted is right then the pool of pilots out there was actually shrinking at a time of rapid expansion..!. .. .Can't work it out. Will confer with My Man.. .. .WWW