ATPL Graduate unemployment rates

[Desk-pilot]

I've spent the past two years trying to work out when would be a good time to jump in to Integrated training. I finally took severance from a well paid job at the end of September and am trying to eliminate the flying school hype from the cool analysis required of whether now is the time.

I've hesitated not because of a lack of passion for aviation but because frankly if you study medicine for example you have a 90% chance of getting a job but pilot training isn't like that. I know it's deeply cyclical and wildly unpredictable but if I knew how many were getting jobs now and had a feel for future intention of airlines I could judge whether I'm prepared to gamble on odds of say 50/50.

The flying schools I speak to are all keen to point out that there are signs of the market picking up but I need hard facts.

Would recent Grads of OATS, CABAIR, JEREZ etc care to comment on the number of people on their a course who have obtained a flying job at the end of it. If what the schools are saying is true then I would expect to see say 50% of those Graduating this month with interviews or job offers lined up as opposed to 30% in say November.

What % of Graduates from the leading schools are getting flying jobs within say 6 months? I have no idea whether it's 60-70% or 10%. Such information would greatly assist in deciding whether or not to commit.

Does anyone have a view on the trends within the industry - can we realistically expect things to get better late in 2003?

I have a wife to think of and this is an awful lot of money. She's 100% behind me and this is all I have ever wanted to do. I have frankly spent 2 years trying to talk myself out of it but aviation just will not go away and there's a limit to how many Discovery Wings programmes a man can watch!

If you'd rather email offline I'm on [email protected]

I'm grateful for your input.

Desk-pilot

[Flypuppy]

Desk-pilot,

I cannot speak for Integrated courses, but of all the people I know who have completed Modular CPL/IR training in the last 18 months I only know of 2 of that group of people who have flying jobs.

Not very scientific, but that is 2 out of about 20 people. Both bought type ratings, one to convert a foriegn licence and the other because he could afford it.

If you can I would wait and see how things pan out in the Middle East over the next few months.

[Cricketer]

HI Jonathan

Congrats for even considering it in this time and it does show you are committed. Well the truth as I have seen it is this:
The flying schools I speak to are all keen to point out that there are signs of the market picking up - no offence but you can not be that naive - of course they will say that - they have no shareholders only the customers to keep paying their wages - there will never be a downtrun for them if people keep paying. Sure there might be some signs but not in the sense we are all hoping for - more like unique cases.

If what the schools are saying is true then I would expect to see say 50% of those Graduating this month with interviews or job offers lined up as opposed to 30% in say November That is quite frankly BS, I can not believe they are allowed to say that. That has to be false advertising, maybe a check with trading standards is in order. I would say out of a class of ten, 1 might have something lined up at the end due to having a contact (relative) in an industry, there will always be approximately two who will never get jobs. I refer you to Scroggs and WWW who have stated this before and there will always be these people in the industry. The other seven will I reckon take between 1 year and 5 years to get any type of job at the moment. It could all pick up in a year but I reckon a year is minimum and even then I do not think it will become anything more for at least two years if not three.

What % of Graduates from the leading schools are getting flying jobs within say 6 months? I have no idea whether it's 60-70% or 10% I would say at the present time it would have to be 10% - just look at some sponsored courses for their difficulties and then look at the self-sponsored. Probably worth searching the threads as I know the gurus WWW and scroggs have done this to death already in other posts. Worth asking others as well as there are a lot of cooks and way too many indians.

Above all: DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING THE SCHOOLS SAY REGARDING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES AS THEY ARE IN THE DARK AS MUCH AS WE ARE. They want to see you a product and will do anything to do that. Think - if they had such good results why not produce it for all to see and let the CAA verify it. Even if they do produce results, no-one can verify it and it will not provide an accurate view. All of my friends who graduated - from the best to the worst are still looking for jobs and only one of my friends has got job thanks to the school. That was one out of about 50 people who had finished the courses.

Having said all that - do it now and then it will be ready for when it will pick up but try to keep some income coming in to offset massive loans. If you really want to do it then just do it. Beware what the schools say.

[fogatgatwick]

i'd say about 10% was pretty close to the mark. i know of about 6 or 7 people who graduated from my (integrated) school in the past year or so who have jobs now, and about half of those were well connected in one way or another.

best of luck

[scroggs]

There doesn't seem to be anybody collecting, or at least publishing, this data. Part of the problem is that self-funded wannabes lose touch with their schools a few weeks or maybe months after graduation, and may well not report back their successes and failures. Sponsored candidates, of course, are assumed to have a job on graduation.

My general feeling is that there are fairly few jobs out there for newly-graduated fATPLs. The current uncertainty of the Gulf situation has very recently caused many companies to suspend their recruiting plans indefinitely, and until we see some light at the end of that particular tunnel it's impossible to guess what the near future holds. Things will pick up eventually - they always do - but there are always new obstacles to overcome. This week's suggestions in the press that aviation fuel and tickets could be taxed to slow, or even halt, the growth of air traffic in the UK will have caused some serious head-scratching in many boardrooms!

Scroggs
Virgin/Wannabes Moderator
[email protected]

[tunneler]

Did an integrated at one of the larger schools, graduated late 2002 with 5 others. Only one person has a flying job at the moment..... Of other courses I know of two other guys who graduated December and have jobs flying commerical stuff.

Have to work bloody hard and then be exceptionally lucky.

Best of luck.

Tunny.

[witchdoctor]

Finished integrated course at OAT last summer. Of 15 on the course, 2 are employed by airlines (both have residency rights in a tax haved south of the UK and employed at bases there). Only know of 4 other people working for airlines from all the other self-sponsored courses I had any contact with (2 at Ryanair, 1 also tax haven based and 1 working far east).

Everybody else finding it hard to get into the airlines in the RHS, but still the school is talking up the prospects.

[AH64 APACHE]

Tunny

Now I wonder who the one with the job is?????
I am sure there is affirmative action for those north of the border!!

I think this is a realistic post of those with jobs and not. I am sure there are enough people on PPrune who have gone to the schools who could post their course graduation dates and how many out of them with jobs. If somebody from each course did that we could get an accurate idea of employment rates.

As Cricketer said I doubt that it would be anywhere near what the schools are saying.

[Strangely Brown]

I graduated SFT May 2000. I have kept in touch with about 18 people who finished around the same time.

After 33 months 4 now have jobs (2 in last 12 months)

The remainder have continued to hour build and renew their IR/medical each year. Most of us now have 400 - 600 hours and rigoursly pursue any sniff of a flying job in this country and overseas.

Read into this what you like

[Desk-pilot]

Keep the information coming, it makes for very sad reading but is also immensely informative for those of us contemplating making the move.

Many thanks to those who have posted so far and I wish you all the very best of luck in joining the paid flight deck crews of the world.

Frankly this calls into question the morality of encouraging so many people to pursue a course of training with such dire job prospects at the end of it. It's perfectly legal, but is it moral? I can't think of another course of study anywhere with such low employment rates and which is so costly in terms of time and money. Worrying really because having left a rather well paid IT job in September, aged nearly 34 I'm fast running out of options.

I really wish I could love IT as much as I love flying!

Desk-pilot

[no sponsor]

Depends which religion/philosophical view you take. From the perspective of the schools, if they did not take anyone into training, they would all go out of business, and loads more people wouldn't have jobs.

Only a fool believes a marketing man.

I had a chat with my partner last night about this topic. She gave me a surprising answer when I mentioned to her that virtually no-one who is getting qualified is getting a job - no matter where you train. And she explained that even if I blew £60K on training and got no job, ending back up where I am today, then it didn't matter; if I never try, I'd always wonder what-if!

Still, it doesn't make it any easier in deciding when and where.

[Desk-pilot]

No Sponsor,

Your conversation with your partner is interesting because it echoes my wife's feelings ie it is better to try and achieve things in life than to stay put if unhappy. Certainly if I had stayed put in IT I'd be guaranteed a professionally unfulfilled life, albeit one with good job security and a nice house.

You only get one life and this isn't a dress rehearsal.

Are you still working or currently free to jump into training?

Desk-pilot

[Footsie]

The only thing that's certain is no ATPL, no shiny jet job.

Getting an ATPL is the entry requirement. You need this to play the game. No more, no less. Certainly no guarantees. Is it better to have a go and give it your best, accepting the very small chance of a job in the near future, or to forever regret. 'What if?' The answer depends on you and your situation.

Please let's not start a moral argument over blaming the schools for the 'more pilots than jobs' situation we currently have. It's down to two factors - a depressed world economy with much current uncertainty, and the fact that flying is still perceived as a glamorous job that appeals to many.

To quote Mark Twain

He had discovered a great law of human action, without knowing it - namely, that in order to make a man or a boy covet a thing, it is only necessary to make the thing difficult to obtain.

The schools only have one duty to their pupils - to provide the best training they can. But don't ask their opinions on the state of the market - they're commercial businesses and want your money. If there's any chance for optimism, they're going to place a positive spin on that. They are no better and no worse than any other commercial enterprise.

One thing I can't quite fathom with some wannabes is the impression given that a jet RHS is some automatic right. For those of us in non-flying jobs - didn't we work our way up, from the lowliest jobs to a more acceptable level? If that's true of less glamorous jobs like IT, surely even more so for aviation, which so many more want to enter?

The argument that it's more expensive to get into/bigger risk is a non-starter. These are the entry requirements to even get a look in. If you don't like it, or it's too big a risk, then you should definitely stay with what you're doing.

Hope this doesn't sound too harsh. Desk-Pilot, I'm the same age as you and have the same dreams. But we have to be realistic about this and not seek to blame others for the current employment situation. That's just how it is. We don't have to enter this game. The schools aren't forcing us. All the pressure is coming from within you and me and all the many others like us.

[scroggs]

To those who have posted their course successes and failures (so far), thank you - this is very useful information. I, and others, would be very interested to hear from more of you. Please try to avoid duplicating information about given courses, if you can. It's not very helpful to learn from each of the 18 students on one course that 2 have jobs and none of the others have - this would distort the overall picture.

Those of you who have decided to continue with your eyes wide open to what is going on: well done and the very best of luck!

Scroggs
Virgin/Wannabes Moderator
[email protected]

[Smokie]

Desk- Pilot,

The bottom line is that you need the (F)ATPL to get a look in and even be considered, you also need "Hours" the experience that is generally used as a yard stick in aviation.

Unfortunately most of the young up and coming tyro's think that they automatically deserve a RHS Jet position on "graduation".

You only need one major airline or even a not so major one to go down the swanny, then you have a market full of ready trained Captians and First officers who will suddenly "Jump the Queue" and put you back 3 or 4 years. Trust me on this because I have been there. (Air Europe and Dan-Air spring to mind.)

Its not all gloom and doom though, there is more than one way to skin a cat. As I have mentioned above experience does count for a lot, so you may have to go further afield to obtain it.

Providing you are not in to much of a hurry to get that RHS Jet job
there are plenty of oportunities to gain experience in places like Africa, the Caribbean, Canada, the Far East and South Pacific.
With jobs such as Bush flying, Pleasure flying around the Game Reserves, Sea plane flying in Canada, the list goes on.
The majority of these companies will fly your @rse off for you, so loads of hours, although the rates of pay vary wildly from very good to abysmal.

You should at least be able to get a position flying say, C404's
B-18's or if you are lucky DC3/C47 or C46, DC4, DC6 DHc4, all piston engines but brilliant experience. There's also Turbo - Prop B-200, C406, EMB110, DHC-6, SD330/360, CV440, L-188 Electra's, again the list goes on.

From your first post, it seems that you are financially OK, in which case GO FOR IT. Once you have got your license, the market may have improved somewhat and you may well get straight into the Jet RHS, if not then the world's yours mate. You may have to do say a local license conversion ( my Canadian one wasn't too much hassle and very cheap to boot, in fact it was about a tenth of the UK costs.)

What ever you decide, good luck and never give up, there is more to flying than just with the major airlines; if you only want the Jet RHS then you will probably have a very long wait, otherwise the experience you gain along the way will be invaluable.

Happy Landings :cool:

[whisperbrick]

very sad to see, but thats the reality at the moment.

I recently went to see britannia and of the seven there, five were ex-military just about to leave the forces.That was the aspect i overlooked when initially trying to get a job:there are four competing groups:ab-initios, ex-instructors, military and those looking to change jobs !

Certainly there are still well experienced pilots still waiting to get back in:of about 60 pilots who worked with me who were laid off, about 20 now have jobs:all with lots of jet time etc...

keep at it , but plan for a couple of years rather than weeks or months....

[tonyblair]

I was told by a 'guru', who is better placed than anyone else I have come across, that over the last 10 years in the UK about 1,500 people a year on average start out training and that there have been 300 new commercial jobs per year when those that go to the ex-military are taken into account. He said there have been good times (like just before 11th September) and bad (like now), but that is the long-term average.

80% of wannabes never get their first job.

I was pretty gobsmaked, but looking at these posts, from people who are not just setting out but who have graduated from flight schools successfully (how many have not made it this far?), maybe these depressing numbers are right. :(

If they are, I cannot accept that the flight training industry is without blame. They knowingly prey on people's dreams, taking life savings in many cases. They tell us what we want to hear. They devise elaborate glossy 'shells' for standard courses and put up the price, knowing the lure of 'that first job' (“you have more chance if you give your money to us, honest”) will colour the wannabe's judgement. It's outrageous. And it's off my chest!

:*

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hmmm, I wouldn't put the number at 80%. More like 50%. Nobody has the actual statistics on this, not even the CAA, but its been speculated on for many years right here.

I'd say that of the people who get a Class One and enrol on some form of groundschool about 10% give up during training.

Of those that actually get a Frzn ATPL issues and a valid IR I think about half get into airline employment. A further chunk will find work flying non-airline work and stay in that arena.

Instructors usually have strong hunches about which course members will make it and which won't post-training. Nevertheless I have been suprised to hear that so-and-so got hired straight onto a jet whilst such-and-such can't get an interview with the Fragrant Harbour Rubber Novelties Trading company.

Illustrating that either:

a) Instructors have no idea who is actually above or below average, or

b) Lifes not fair.


It was always particularly galling when you had a self sponsored student at the same time as an airline sponsored student. the galling part being the Cadet was Captain Klutz whilst the self sponsored guy had an Great Uncle called Chuck somewhere in Arizona... You just knew one was going straight to a jet whilst the other would be hawking a CV around with fingers crossed for months.

Which led most Instructors of my acquaintance to believe that most airline cadetship selection systems were mostly a lottery. Some airlines seemed to have a better idea than others - that was clear.

Good luck,

WWW

[FlyingForFun]

This has been one of the most interesting threads I've seen for a very long time.

I agree - it is very important not to get into training without your eyes very wide open. In my case, that means holding on to my IT job during training, and until I get offered my first flying (most likely non-airline) job. Others may not have that option - but it is vital to have a backup plan of some kind.

The schools are not to blame for this at all. Everyone has the right to have a go at becoming a commercial pilot, and as long as we are willing to take the plunge, the schools will continue to provide us with the service we ask for.

Interesting point about self-sponsered students being left on the pile while airline-sponsored students get the jobs. This is not just an airline thing. When I graduated from university, I applied for an IT job at GCHQ (Government Communications Headquarters). I was invited for a full-day interview, and was put up in a hotel, together with 5 other candidates, the night before. Whilst chatting in the bar that evening, we discovered that one of our fellow candidates had been sponsered through university by GCHQ.

The morning of the interview, we all came out of our hotel rooms in our best interview clothes. The sponsored guy was carrying a folder. "What's in the folder?" "Oh, just some notes about my final year project at university, in case we get asked about it." It wasn't a huge surprise when, mid-morning, we were asked to give a presentation on our final year projects. Guess who got the job?

So no, nothing special about airlines in this respect - it goes on in IT, too, and even in government jobs. It's just that we have an even higher number of potential candidates battling for an even lower number of jobs - so we'd better make sure we've got something on our CV which is going to make us stand out from the crowd.

Good luck!

FFF
--------------

[Cricketer]

Providing you are not in to much of a hurry to get that RHS Jet job there are plenty of oportunities to gain experience in places like Africa, the Caribbean, Canada, the Far East and South Pacific.

Not sure I whole heartedly agree with that statement. Admittedly I have only investigated the possibility slightly but from what I hear you need to have been there for a while and got your face pretty well known to secure that kind of employment. I am sure someone will say that if you want to really do it then you will but is that realistic?

I would say 1% of us would be able to just turn up in an African city and hang around there with no income etc and be able to be there long enough to get a job. Do they not get competition from locals first and foremost? I would love to do something like this, as well as a good friend of mine, but there is a dearth of information about how to go about it. Everyone says you have to be there etc but where/when/how? I am not seeking an easy win but a step in the right direction would help. Would it help to have got some form of type rating before going?

Does IR help in the African bush? What kind of hours expected there?

[SpiralDive]

Well, I'm afraid I'm gonna have to call bullsh!t on the post saying you should just go around the world and it'll be easy to find a flying job in places like Africa or Canada. Fact is, I have buddies in Canada with loads of hours who can't get a job and have been laid off numerous times in the last year or so. Generally you'll have to work your ass off on the dock in Yellowknife for a year or more before you get right hand seat in a twotter, and if you think its easy getting a job on the dock then go talk to the ten or so guys working at the local pancake house or gas station. It sounds good to talk about these opportunities elsewhere but whether or not they exist is another matter.

Some insinuate that our problem is being too ambitious and holding out for a RHS in a jet, but this is not correct of the people I know in a similar situation. Fact is that a lot of the 'traditional' apprenticeships have dried up since the turboprop went out of style and the LCCs took over the majority of regional flying. I don't know any fATPLer who wouldn't give his right nut to get a seat in a Saab340 or a Shed, but the jobs aren't there.

For what its worth I know of two who have secured jobs out of 14 or so on my course that finished a year a go. Bit of luck and good networking is what it takes, and there are no guarantees. Incidentally the two I know who have been hired are both in jets, despite being turned down by all the prop outfits this side of France. Its true to say you need the fatpl to get a job, but you're investing 60 grand and if your odds of any return in a year is about 15% you have to be pretty sure you don't need the money before you throw it at a school. You may also tell yourself that you'll work extra hard and be in that top 15%, but as WWW pointed out that may not be good enough, unless you've got a horseshoe up your butt and you know you're lucky!

Other side of the argument is that this may be a good time to enter the market, buy low sell high and all that. If things pick up in a year and a half you could well be right. Personally I'd wait for a clear sign of the improvement before i started, so all us sad cases that have been sitting around for a while are either hired or have given up before you enter the market. Good luck whatever you decide!