Britannia/bmi/Monarch Retirements

[Hobo]

Much has been said about BA's retirement "bulge", but does anybody know about potential recruitment numbers in Britannia/bmi/Monarch with SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO RETIREMENTS IN THE NEXT3-4 YEARS . These airlines are steady long term players and it might help us wannabes' decisions if some figures for them were available.

[scroggs]

Don't get too hung up on retirement numbers. Remember that those who retire are the highest-qualified, experienced commanders and trainers. Their replacements have been in the airline for some years already. I appreciate that you are looking at the total number of pilots in the airlines, but you are making assumptions about the future plans of those airlines that you can't justify.

Basically, you can't plan your future employment prospects based on retirement numbers. Far more relevant are stated expansion plans and announced recruiting targets. If there is no sign of either, then your chances of employment probably aren't good - at least in the short term.

Scroggs
Virgin/Wannabes Moderator
[email protected]

[High Wing Drifter]

Pilots rettiring will obvioulsy suk new pilots into the botom rung; albeit fewer. Overal pilot retirments woold and should be a componant of the decision to follow the wanabee road.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well not necessarily. I heard that BAY were looking at some of the larger A330 family to replace their ageing Boeing fleet. Such a move would allow them to still move the same amount of holiday makers, using fewer pilots.

On the flip side there are moves in the likes of LH and BA to operate smaller types but increase the frequency on premiu, routes. Thus requiring more pilots to move the same number of pax.

Another issue is that with very large IT Charted airlines they are often part of an even wider group. Think BAY and TUI etc. To an extent the amount of "work" each airline has can be divied up amongst the groups thus creating expansion and contraction in different parts of the group at the whim of the accountants and their tax advisers.

Then on top of all that there is the JAA to consider. SAS are laying off hundreds of jet pilots. Air Liberte are going bust. Sobelair did (though I their callsigns still!?) etc. etc.

Retirement "bulges" can be radically thinned out. You always get some pilots loosing medicals as they approach their final ten years in the flightdeck. Then there are the guys who take early retirement as their houses are now worth a fortune and they want to spend more time with their investments etc. Further still are the chaps who stay on after the expected retirement age. Often on a part time basis, as trainers or as in Britannias case I believe they have recently agreed that Captains can stay on post retirement age but as FO's.

For most of the latter 90's people harked on about the BA retirement bulge.... blah 450 pilots every year leaving blah... expansion will need at least 600 new pilots a year blah... won't be able to cope, will empty all the other airlines blah.... pilot shortage, chimps with CPL's being given jobs blah...

Well it never quite happened.

WWW

[scroggs]

HWD

I take it that the style of your post is an attempt at satire? Well, good try, but I doubt the effort was worth it. As you no doubt discovered while constructing the post, poor spelling makes your message more difficult to read - and write :rolleyes: .

As for your suggestion that retirements should be taken into account when deciding where to aim, I think you're wrong. Firstly, and as Hobo implies, airlines don't tend to discuss their pilot retirement numbers, so it's difficult to get the information in the first place. Secondly, there is not necessarily any corollary between retirements and job availability - as WWW points out. Fleet changes and route structure plans are a far more reliable guide, and far easier to get hold of.

In any case, no plans that you make to aim at any given airline will be worth anything if the airline isn't looking for people. For ab-initio entries, there will always be a public announcement of intent to recruit, followed by a competetive selection process. You can't steal a march on your wannabe peers by getting inside gen!

On the other hand, when you have a few thousand jet hours and a couple of useful types under your belt, the detective work could well pay off.

Scroggs
Virgin/Wannabes Moderator
[email protected]

[High Wing Drifter]

What to yuo mean? Whats wrong with my smelling? And as for your spelling of "competetive" - a grime against humanity. Boom! Boom!

Firstly, and as Hobo implies, airlines don't tend to discuss their pilot retirement numbers, so it's difficult to get the information in the first place.
I assumed that one just needed to look at the table on the CAA site, the one that shows types of licenses by age and extrapolate with some guestimate adjustment the numbers into the "large", "medium" or "small" category. One has to make the best of the incomplete information on offer. And you cannot be suggesting that numbers out has no effect on numbers in. But then again it is not worth getting into a row about.

On the other hand, when you have a few thousand jet hours and a couple of useful types under your belt, the detective work could well pay off.
Very smug today aren't we?

:D

[Jetdriver]

A handfull over the next few years which is normal. You need to understand that airlines do not normally wave goodbye to retirees at 60 and start seeking their replacements from fresh new licence holders.

Retirement can occur at any point between 55 & 60 which in itself has a levelling effect. Some pilots are forced to retire early for medical reasons. All of this is natural and has always been the case.

Recruitment is from 2 sources as a rule. One is other airlines/ operators and the second is the military. Both provide Pilots of a high calibre which is what the airlines want. These sources have provided enough Pilots to satisfy the normal demand. There is presumably a trickle down effect through the smaller operators etc which may be encouraging.

In times of rapid growth it might be necessary to seek recruits from sources of less experience but that tends not to happen too often. Generally speaking the airlines need to replace their most experienced Pilots with the best levels of experienced recruits they can get and as I have said that is other airlines and the military.

There are pockets of rapid growth notably the low cost airlines that might provide some encouragement. It is reasonable to assume that they are also looking for the best they can get. They need experienced pilots in the right seat to fill their left seats at an early opportunity.

It sometimes seems that the concept of entry level jobs in air taxi, small operators, and domestic freight etc are overlooked these days. There is a perception that a new licence means right hand seat of 737 or 757. For a few that may be the case, but for many it will be very dissapointing if that is the belief.