Pilot Shortage your prediction for 2001/2?

[RVR800]

Future predictions for

1 Type rated vacancies
2 Airline experienced Pilots and above
3 Jet/Turboprop and above
4 100hr+ Multi Engine Pilots and above
5 1000hrs+above
6 CAP509
7 200hrs+
8 PPL Sponsorship
9 Ab-initio part sponsorship
10 Total sponsorship

My prediction based on the US model

1 Increase
2 Increase
3 Increase
4 Increase
5 Increase
6 Increase
7 Increase
8 Increase
9 Increase
10 same

Based on US experience ?

[Dragger of Tail]

Wot?

[foghorn]

And here's mine (with one extra category, 4a)

4a Number of overseas pilots with 1,500hrs+ TT and 100hrs+ ME time.

1 Increase
2 Increase
3 Increase
4 Increase
4a Large Increase
5 Increase
6 Same
7 Same
8 Same
9 Same
10 Same

Why? I think that the gap will be plugged by jacking up salaries for RJ and mid-jet first officers which will just suck in more people with high GA hours from overseas to fill these positions.

Before I get tarred with a Xenophobic brush, there is nothing wrong with hiring overseas pilots per se. The problem starts when the airlines hire a lot of overseas pilots. It is a known fact that many overseas workers are not going to settle here, but are just here to broaden their horizons before returning home. In the case of overseas pilots, this also means getting some jet experience before returning to parts of the world where there is less of a pilot shortage and airlines have higher experience requirements.

If the predictions are correct and aviation is going to expand for a while yet, packing the mid-hour jobs with overseas pilots who then return home once they hit the levels required for their own flag-carrier, is just a short-term fix which defers the pilot shortage and makes it bite at a higher experience level. It closes the door to gaining experience to those local people who have had to train in a country with much fewer GA routes to hours, which would be a more sustainable approach to curing the shortage.

(Dons asbestos jacket as this is always a controversial issue...)

[This message has been edited by foghorn (edited 31 January 2001).]

[foghorn]

I'm surprised that this thread just died like it did. Bringing to top.

[Robbo2Alpha]

Well done foghorn, nicely put, but I do think the overseas pilot influx is slowing because of the extra costs of securing a JAR licence, and unless they have lots of turbo prop time, overseas pilots will always find it hard, partly due to the BMC precident.

Mark my words, big things are about to happen in the UK airline industry, with BMI at MAN (LHR?) and even more fun and games to occur in Scotland. Just pray the economy holds out, and Tony gets a second term, any change now will be bad, trust me.

[foghorn]

I hope so, because I plan to be (f)ATPL/IR by October!

[Pilot Pete]

Well said Robbo2Alpha

Foghorn, I know exactly how you feel too and 'lots' of foreign pilots is a short term cure as most will go home to sunnier climes. But, and here's the controvercial bit, if we don't want to be seen as whingeing poms why don't we take advantage of the strength of the pound and go and gain all those hard come by GA hours in places like the US, South Africa and AUS/NZ. Admittedly you'll have to pay for them but 100hrs multi gets a turboprop interview out of a total of less than a thousand. Get your multi and instruct for the rest 'free' and there you have it, take on the 'immigrants' head to head. Even stress at your interview how long you would stay for.........but is it true? Wouldn't you just move on to the first jet operator who offered you a start? That's all they're doing.

It only happens for those who make it happen. Evidence is those who are willing to come half way round the world to do it. The industry owes nobody a start, and for the guy who worked in Transair Victoria and tried to dissuade me from going commercial because he didn't get a job and let everything lapse.......I guess you're one of the statistics now. Don't be a statistic, jump ALL the hurdles.

work hard, get hours, bingo.

PP

[mutant]

I hope I won't be classed as one of those 'Foreign pilots'.I have been flying overseas primarily because I couldn't afford the cost of flight training in the UK.
I, for one, will not be b*****ing-off once I have the pre-requisite turbine hours. Get your hankies out, but I miss the rain, the green grass and "Flossy"!!!
:) :) :)

[ZAZOO]

Guy's

Everyday I hear this thing about shortage of pilots e.t.c.

Well, I have always wondered one thing, why is it that the airlines in europe and especially here in the UK don't find it in their interest to sponsor their nationals who are fully qualified with F.A.A. CPL or even ATPL to their own license. Would it not bring down the cost considerably to them and even the time it takes, as to doing the full sponsorship course.

I have met so many of them in the UK and even in the US some who got their US qualification by hard work, and are first class aviators in their own right, all still struggling to find the funds to convert.

After all most of the institutions in the UK and most part of europe that operate these schemes with the airlines do most if not all the flight training in the US now.

Would it do any harm to put up a sponsorship scheme for these guys.

This does not mean that I am in anyway against their current full sponsorship course.

Regards
Zazoo

[Deck-Cam]

Just a long shot but perhaps the airlines already have enough candidates with BSc's in Whinging.
Like it or lump it Aviation is a global profession so if you cant stand the heat get out of the kitchen.
Deck!

[rolling circle]

ZAZOO - The reason is that there is a glut of newly qualified pilots in Europe. The large and ever increasing shortfall is in experienced F/O's suitable to fill the Captains' slots developing over the next year or two. Airlines are not sponsoring because they don't need the product of sponsored training - qualified but inexperienced pilots.