NEW WANNABES: Go in with your eyes open

[foghorn]

To wannabes just starting out in training, I have just got back from the BALPA employment services conference in London. And I for one found it a rather sobering experience.

There were well over 300 people there who are looking for airline jobs in the UK. I doubt if that even represents a half of the professional licence holders in the UK who are not currently employed by airlines and are actively seeking airline jobs, probably a much smaller fraction than this.

In any average year there are no more than 400 airline pilot posts created in the UK from industry expansion, retirements and natural wastage. This figure has been estimated at more like minus 1,000 in the year since September 11th 2001.

As that American phrase goes, "you do the math". You must think about this before you invest in professional pilot training a huge amount of your current or future wealth, or that of a relative.

cheers!
foggy.

[fireflybob]

Whilst I would be the first to advise caution, this arguement only seems to cover the situation in the UK.

Surely worldwide there will be an increasing requirement for qualified pilots. For example, Emirates seem to be in the middle of a big expansion.

The requirement for pilots overseas will attract many pilots in the UK who wish to come home with a bucket of gold. This will free up places for those of us who wish to be nearer to home.

Yes, there are many unpredictables in the aviation industry but I think there is a lot more reason for optimism that we may think.

[Kefuddle_UK]

foghorn,

Thanks for radar blip. However, what about all those pilots due for retirement in the five years...plus the need for pilots due to expansion?

I'm gonna stick my neck out here as maybe I don't understand how to read the document but on the CAA site, in March 2000 there were 1200 pilots due to retire at age 60 in the next five years and a further and 1700 who will be 55 in the next five years (a statistic meant to account somehwat for BA pilots who retire at 55).

Just a thought :)

[BravoOne]

like any other career move decision there are risks involved. I for one am scared at the prospect of investing the best part of £45'000 just to obtain the licence, but on the other hand don't wan't to become one of those statistics who sit in the flying club saying, "You know I would like to have become an airline pilot, but because of X, Y or Z I decided against". They are now the ones who are wishing they were at my stage in life, and eager to achieve.

I don't recommend that anyone who has doubts invest further in their training, nor do I condem it, but I for one have also carried out my own research, am aware of the risks involved but am not prepared to be questioning my reasons for not continuing my training in 20 years time saying, what if!

As one pilot told me before, 'Keep your head down and your wings High' and a prayer to our neighbour in the sky helps too on occasion.

Regards,
B1.

[foghorn]

On the retirement bulge front, I did a little research into that - the bulge actually only means about another 100 pilot posts per year at its height (which is 2002-2003).

I've seen an interesting chart today from BA - they are expecting around 180 retirements per year for the next few years, this will fall to around eighty per year after that (climbing again in ten years time). This correlates with the CAA's professional licence holder by age data.

Also don't forget that many 55 year old BA retirees will not stop flying.

cheers!
foggy.

[Splat]

Yes,

and to add, I was at the BALPA conf.

Question to all those who attended WITHOUT commercial experience - informative as it was, did anyone out there enhance their employment prospects?

Also, did anyone else get the feeling that there was a bit of a poker game going on with some of the representatives?

Back to me beer.

S

[Miles High]

Foghorn is right to point this out, as is Bravo One for saying there is no point in looking back on your life saying 'If only'.

Thats why I remortgaged my house and here I am £40,000 poorer with a mortgage, wife, kids and no prospect of a pilot job 2 years after qualifying.

I think I'm a decent guy and (except for hours!) highly employable, and there are many commercial pilot friends who would agree but that is the situation I and who knows how many others are in.

I would also advise not to fall for these future pilot shortage stories that keep surfacing. They have been around on and off for as long as I can remember.

This getting a CPL is a serious business folks! Be careful.

[Kefuddle_UK]

I would also advise not to fall for these future pilot shortage stories that keep surfacing. They have been around on and off for as long as I can remember.


True, probably started by a training school at some point ;) However, the thing I have noticed with recruitment in general is the amount of lag that there is regarding take-up. I imagine aviation is not different to any other industry, that the employment needs can be represented as a sine wave and the available qualified pool as a cosine - always at odds with each other. The industry is in the duldrums now but will probably and suddenly be facing a 'skills shortage' in the next few years...as crazy as that may sound right now!

[Hamrah]

Splat,

Being at the conference myself, and being one of the "representatives", any chance you could elaborate on:-
Also, did anyone else get the feeling that there was a bit of a poker game going on with some of the representatives?

H

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You aren't the Splat who was onetime a student of mine at Jerez by any chance are you?

If so glad to still you are still trying.

Cheers

WWW

[JohnnyPharm]

Foggy,

I think it was about time you saw your Doctor and get prescribed some Prozac. I am not a judgmental type of person, but I think your glass is half empty rather than half full!!!

[Splat]

Hamrah,

Certainly. There seemed a lot of cagey type of answers given in response to some questions, and to add I'm only asking the question, but it left me feeling that some of the presenters (not you I might add) where reluctant do divulge too much on future plans/bases/recruitment in case it gave anything away to others there. It could be I've missread them, hence the question.

WWW, I've never met you, nor even know what you look like, so I guess the same goes for you. I'll ignore your reply.

JohnnyPharm, there is a fine line between reality and the half emtpy glass. I was there too, and I like to think of myself as an optimist, but I left feeling the opposite. Out of the presenters, I think you could have counted the forcast number of jobs on offer in the next 6 months at well less that 30 (remember 300 people there), plus in my case comments from JMC that they have too many people in the low fourties would make them not consider me. Further more, if you're either out of the old self improver route or done modular, several airlines consider you a higher risk.

To be fair to all those there, what did come across load and clear is that no one really know the numbers or when people will be hired. I think it's called life in aviation.

I'm having a personal rethink on this, not in terms of canning aviation, but in terms of getting a job.

S

[Flat-Spot]

Why worry about staying in Blighty or even Europe for that matter...head East, I did and it worked for me, the lifestyle and tax free salary is great!

Cheers, F-S

[airshowpilot]

I was there too. Firstly I don’t blame any of the ‘representatives’ for being cagey about bases etc. Let’s face it, there was already a lot of commercially sensitive information already on display such as salaries, hourly requirements and projections about their need for pilots over the next 12-24 months.

My overall feeling, and it was alluded to a few times, is that the airlines are unable to be precise at this time because of the uncertainty of the market due to the ongoing saga concerning the gulf. Indeed, some even suggested that their piloting requirements for next year could be determined in a matter of weeks rather than months such is the immediacy of planning these days.

My overriding concern from a ‘Wannabes’ point of view was that there were a few airlines stating that they preferred candidates from a specific integrated background but that they, nevertheless, employed the ‘individual’. They also suggested that they would not look favourably on an individual who ‘stereotypically’ had wealthy parents and had built their hours by flying circuits in Florida. Like the majority of airline pilots and Wannabes I wasn't born with a silver spoon in my mouth but have taken the modular option, and flown some hours in the USA, purely because this is how I have been able to afford to get licenced. It would have cost me twice as much to go another route - money that I simply did not have. It is ironic perhaps that certain students might be discriminated against because of their choice of ‘approved’ CAA school and their lack of funds…

Nevertheless, I personally will keep flying in a disciplined way, be positive, completely flexible with my movements and keep my ears wide open for any job, and I stress any job, that might be forthcoming.

[Ray Ban]

I was at the conference too and have mixed feelings about it, although I think it was worth going. Aviation is a tough nut to crack but I do feel that for the majority who persevere, an airline job will eventually materialise. The $64,000 question is when?

:confused:

[Hamrah]

Splat,

Ok, I can see your concern with the presentations. I think the hesitation on being specific with numbers on the part of the presenters is that there is still so much uncertainty in the industry, particularly in the Charter sector.

My Sunday papers are reporting the doom and gloom amongst the Tour Operators who are trying to decide how much capapcity to book for Next Summer, and consequently, how much flying they might need from either their in-house airline, or other airlines as required.

There should be little doubt that the Bush/Hussein Boxing Match is throwing a lot of uncertainty into the pot.

H

[Splat]

Hamrah,

Thanks for that. Pretty much my conclusion too. Just to add from a recruiting point of view, am I right in thinking that BA hold the starting gun, and once that goes off, things will start moving.

Further more, are there any airlines that have in the past have jumped the gun, such that one could use them as an indicator that BA are about to start?

TIA

S

[foghorn]

JohnnyPharm

What a waste of a bandwidth your post is, I am not a judgmental type of person yeah, right:rolleyes: .

Note the sentiments of the other people who were at the BALPA conference are not exactly rose tinted. Were you there? Do you have a licence?

You've got to be realistic about the whole project. If, like me, Miles High et al., you weighed up the very real odds of failure and still went ahead, well fair play to you. But particularly for those kids trying to re-mortgage their parents house for a place at Oxford, well, a healthy dose of realism (not Prozac) is the prescription.

My attitude is that if I don't get an airline job, well, at worst I still have the best hobby in the world.

--

On a side note I don't think I learnt much new about aviation yesterday, however the conference was worth attending as it did reinforce and confirm what has been gradually dawning on me in the year since I got my licence, and that is that being in a well-paid comfort zone away from aviation is not doing me any favours. Time to get my FI(R) finished.

btw. nice plug for pprune, Hamrah;)

cheers!
foggy.

[Hap Hazard]

I am always intrigued by these discussions of what if.
I think there will be an upturn in the market at some point, but when is anyones guess.
One thing is for sure, there will still be more pilots than jobs, always has and always will, especially as the number of operators out there keep reducing.
Investing in your future is a hard decission that only can be made by the individual because it is a gamble...
If you dont buy a lottery ticket, you cant win the lottery........
Good luck all.....

[Johnny 7]

We are in a similar situation now as experienced about ten years ago - things really should improve over the next few years . However , I know a few more type rated guys unemployed at the moment , which was not the case in the early 90's . The sad thing is that I'm aware that two of them at least are trying to get out of aviation completely as they can no longer accept the risk of continued fluctuations in the market - both young ( late 20's / early 30's ) , current on type & ex- sizable independant U.K. carrier .

A thread not too long ago enquired about the placing of non-sponsored students at OAT to airlines & was accompanied by a quote from their website . I recall 30 students were claimed to have been placed . No Oxford staff made comment & not one post could corroborate the claims . So the question remains ; of the hundreds of self-sponsored students , integrated & modular , who have graduated from an approved integrated training provider in the last 12 months , how many have gained regular employment as professional pilots ?

Anyone thinking of starting now really should research the market prior to the Gulf War & how that subsequently affected things , compare that with our present situation , & then predict how a potential sequel could further damage an already weak industry .

Good Luck !

[Hamrah]

Splat,

Not anymore. It will be some time before BA get into serious DEP recruitment. In the meantime, Easy will kick off a huge recruitment program, and that will start to clear the logjam. At the moment, there appears to be little movement between airlines, leaving most of the recruitment taking place at the inexperienced end of the market.

Should be good news really.

H

[Splat]

Hamrah,

Thanks for that. Your a good man. Maybe our paths will cross one day.

Regards

S

[Gazeem]

Foggy,

I totally agree with your thinking on remaining in the comfort zone.

I was at the Easy Jet recruitment presentation at Heathrow a couple of months back and what struck me more than anything Easy Jet said was the amount of other guys out there.

With that amount of competition out there jobs are never going to come to those who just wait sending in the odd CV and flying 4 hours a month. There is no way to guarantee a job, but if you really want one you have to compete properly not half-heartedly.

I have realised that I cannot stay with one foot in my present 'comfortable' job and one in the world of aviation - trying to avoid the inevitable low pay of an 'aviation apprenticeship' - in whatever form that may be.

Bon Chance

Gaz