Is it gonna get better or worse?-opinions please

[Eno]

Don't wish to be pessimistic or anything but one or two things are making me question if now is a good time to throw a huge amount of cash at a career in flying?

Would love to get opinions from some pros who have been around long enough to see good and bad times and hear just what they think the industry will go through in the near future and weather or not you would spend 50k on learnng to fly right now or would you hang on.


Thanks
Eno

[aces low]

I am not a pro, but always assume the worst. Your gonna blow £50k, wait a couple of years for a job while the bank breathes down your neck and you wait for the world to come out of recession while still trying to find a grand a year to keep your IR current.

If you still want to do it then go for it and to hell with the consequences. If the thought of losing everything you've got is a little off putting, you will find that there are wannabes out there who are sacrificing everything for a flying career. They'll be the ones that get the licences and eventually a job. Then one day you'll be 50 with kids and mortgages, flash cars and a wandering as to whether you should have gone for it after all.

Is there ever a right time? Remember making decisions when knowing all the facts isn't decision making or judgement...its just a foregone conclusion.

Starting to ramble now...but I hope this helps you to be bold and take control of your destiny (whatever that may be).

[scroggs]

There are no certainties in aviation, or anything else for that matter. The fact is that this is the best pilot market UK aviation has ever seen, right now. If it were to drop to 50% of its current level, it would still be better than it's been for most of the post-war years. The trouble is, as always, that too many people want to be pilots!
If you are going to start down this road, you must first ensure you have the physical and physiological ability to complete the course. Do your class 1 medical and Gapan aptitude tests now.
Secondly, you must decide that you WILL be one of the winners. Nothing should deflect you from your goal, whatever it might be. Many of those who start on this crazy rollercoaster give up; either lack of ability, lack of money, lack of determination, or lack of confidence. That's a hell of a way to waste £50,000.
There will always be some jobs. There will always be some winners. There will always be more losers. It's up to you (subject to ability) which you are....

[Baggy]

Would have to agree with Scroggs, in that there are many other industries that are going to suffer before aviation does...

Ater all, no matter what the market don't people always find the money to go on holiday???

If it's what you really want to do, and I can see why it would be, then don't be dissuaded, and go for it.

[Superfly]

Can't agree more with SCOGGS either,
If it had to be sumarized into one phrase I shall say : Winners never quit and quitters never win
I'm just a modest wanabee, but the idea of flying a nice aeroplane soon motivates me hard enough to get up everyday and go to my boring city job and get that cash. It may takes months/ Years to get there but I'll eventually end up pushing buttons and pulling levers and I tell you it's gonna take years to get this grin off my face :D :D

SF

[Speedbird777]

What do you guys out there think about the outlook for the job as a pilot? Do you think the lifestyle will get worse with lower pay and more time away from home or the opposite?

[InFinRetirement]

We are entering a recession, seems to be no doubt about that. There will be winners and losers in every industry, including aviation, but there is also a shortage of pilots, and it is getting worse.

It may be that the recession will be short lived but if I were starting over, I would still think that the "risk" it is worth taking because in the end the risk will be notable by it's abscence.

It's a big decision, just make sure it's what you WANT to do, and WANT it badly enough. No point wasting money if it isn't is it? And I do agree that you should do a Class 1 medical first.

[Eno]

Cheers for the reponses guys,
I think I managed to get a major bout of the jitters on account that I've just been laid off as a result of the US slowdown. However I've got my Class One and am doing the GAPAN tests next opportunity, so should they go well then may as well jump!

Thanks
Eno

[Pilot Pete]

The problem as I see it is that there is never a right time to do it because with the length of time it takes from deciding it's what you want to the point of applying for your first pilot job takes so long that the industry can have swung completely in the opposite direction.

Put it this way, if you wait for it to be a great time(like now), it'll be two years before you get a job (minimum), if you do start now and there is a downturn you may go though several hard years, but look at those who stuck it out in the early nineties when times were really hard, they were the first ones to be taken on when the industry turned round and are now in, if not, pushing for command. Those qualifying right now are joining an industry which has recruited quite heavily for the last few years and therefore (like myself) are now faced with having a lot of 'junior' pilots in front of them in the seniority list. Not trying to say it's all doom and gloom, just that if you are convinced this is where your future lies and have the determination to never give up you do not need to worry. You will get a job, but it will also be very hard work.

Good luck

PP