On the brink of war

[Rote 8]

Given that it seems increasingly likely that we will be going to war with Iraq shortly how do people feel that this will affect the employment prospects of wannabes like ourselves?

Do you think that the recovery within the airline industry will be set back by talk of impending war, or that the inevitable long term growth in air travel will continue regardless?

I am no expert but know enough to appreciate that a war in the Middle East will probably be bad news for people like us, any one planning to consider curtailing or postponing their training already as a direct result of what is going on?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts

Cheers

[GolfFoxtrot]

I have just compiled or rather plagiarized the stats below. Short term some sort of conflict will have a very definite impact on pax numbers, but over all growth should approximate the predicted levels. This was the case I found for the 1991 Gulf War, when I was evaluating the accuracy of previous forecasts.

If anybody has a black and white tie between passenger numbers and aircrew employment I'd appreciate it. I'm currently preparing a business plan for the bank and I'd like to make that connection as clear as possible for them.

Cheers
GF




Below is a summary of air traffic statistics compiled by two independent organizations.

Air Traffic Forecasts for the United Kingdom 2000
(Department For Transport)


Key Points

▪ 1998-2020 should see a predicted 4.25% annual increase in passenger numbers.

▪ Between 1998-2020 the UK international market will see a 4.4% annual increase in passengers traveling for leisure purposes and a 5.5% per annum growth in passengers traveling for business purposes.

▪ Between 1998-2020 the UK domestic market will see an overall 3.5 % per annum increase in passenger numbers as the absolute number of passengers increases from 33.6 million to 71 million.

▪ The low-cost market is expected to see a 15% per annum growth in passenger numbers up to 2005. The overall average for the 1998-2020 period is expected to stabilize at 6.6% per annum as routes mature.





European Air Traffic Forecasts 1985-2015
(Air Transport Action Group)

Key Points

▪1998-2005 passenger growth is predicted at 4.8% per annum
▪2005-2010 passenger growth is predicted at 4% per annum
▪2010-2015 passenger growth is predicted at 3.8% per annum

▪ The UK is and is predicted to remain the dominant air traffic market.

▪The annual GDP for Western Europe in 2005 is predicted at 2.5%, which is higher then any year between 1998-2010. GDP is a key parameter in predicting the annual percentage increase in passenger numbers.