Fewer wannabes?

[clear prop!!!]

No doubt the moderators will have the answer, but is it just me, or have the number of posts on the wannabes forum reduced of late? I have to say that in many cases the breadth and quality of posts is not the same as it was a year or so ago.

Could this be symptomatic of the current gloom and doom and a general swing away from aviation as a career option?

There was an article in Flt Int about 18 months ago which talked about the fact that a career as a pilot was not seen as being as glamorous as it was in the 70’s and 80’s. The article went on to say that airlines had noticed that whist the number of applicants for cadet schemes still attracted the similar sorts of numbers, the calibre of applicant was not as high as they would have liked. It was suggested that something should be done to improve the image of the profession and attract a higher quality of cadet, or the industry would suffer in the long run.

Whilst in the short-term job prospects may look bleak, things WILL improve, particularly in Europe. If ‘should-be’ wannabes were being put off looking at aviation as a career, then ‘would-be’ wannabes are probably now joining them after the recent set of events and the sort of comments and negativity we are reading here on Pprune.

Career advisors very rarely put forward a career as a pilot, perhaps because it is not a rational choice. I.e.:

Horrendous training costs,
No social life while studying
The possible loss of partner during training!
The intense level of study
The poverty if self funding
The breadline salary if instructing
The comparatively low starting salary of a FO
The antisocial working hours
The danger
No Home life
Etc etc

Not really a rational choice of career path.

Perhaps the reason that so many fail the psychometric tests, is that the tests favour rational behaviour!!!

Now all of us irrational pilot types who have paid the cash and got the t shirt know that the good out ways the bad!..it does doesn't it?????

What we should be doing here is encouraging the next generation of wanabees and not scaring them away. The situation will improve and jobs will come back. Maybe not next week but hopefully soon.

Lets not take a snapshot in time and turn to gloom and despair. The industry needs quaulity and not just dreamers. Lets not put everyone else off!

This site was an inspiration and huge help to me…if I tuned in now, I think I would take up another career!

Think positive it Will get better, but there might not be anyone out there interested!


:D

[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: clear prop!!! ]

[Sagey]

Good question.

Fewer wannabes or are there fewer attemptobes?

Sponsorships have stopped, means you have to pay for your license now, and with constant media coverage of job losses it isn't the ideal career to tell the school, uni careers board.

Sagey

[Superpilot]

I was thinking the same thing; The “How to get started threads” have come down to an all time low (although there was one). A lot of ‘would be’ wannabes you speak about would quite happily continue their lives within another profession. I’ve gathered this through meeting various personalities at assessments. I would guess at least a third apply for sponsorships with no serious intention and probably just over half with no prior flying experience (not even a trial-lesson). I met a guy once who didn’t know what a Class 1 med was and told me I was getting too technical when I demonstrated to him how airliners land in minimum viz!
Or maybe I was showing off :rolleyes:

:D

[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: Superpilot ]

[fuddly duddly]

I agree with clear prop and sagey.
when I was at school all the careers master wanted to do (it seemed )was to get his quota's for the car factory and the ship yard.
I was positively discouraged from being a pilot of any variety by someone who probably had dificulty understanding his own key roles and objectives, let alone those of the professional pilot. In fact at my school the careers master was not interested in anyone unless they were in the top 10% of the form.
At the age of thirteen when a professional
person tells you that there is no chance of ever flying as a career or as a hobby(yes)
because you will never have what it takes,
then they were believed.(should have asked the c**** for a show of his license)
anyway enough of my moaning on about the folly that is my past, I finally get to the point.
My point is that you should never give up in trying to achieve your goal, whatever that may be!
Life is too short to be worrying about what may happen in the future.
As with the sad events of sep 11th and the knock on effects to the industry and general aviation i would still encourage people to
learn to fly and develop themselves with a view to becoming a professional pilot.
anyway enough of my rattling on, good luck everyone !


ps down with negative attitudes. ;) :rolleyes:

[Cardinal Puff]

clear prop

You left out the short period pilots are actually licensed. They're only valid while currency is maintained, medical passed and IR valid. At most this is one year. What other career would require you to consider the possibility that you may have to look for another career path EACH YEAR?

We must be nuts!

[Cardinal Puff]

clear prop

You left out the short period pilots are actually licensed. They're only valid while currency is maintained, medical passed and IR valid. At most this is one year. What other career would require you to consider the possibility that you may have to look for another career path EACH YEAR?

We must be nuts!

[TALL]

Just testing my connection

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Wannabe activity and turnover has in fact never been higher than in the last 12 months.

It is certainly true that during the late 90's and until very recently the profile of those applying for flying careers had changed.

VArious factors are at play. The career is seen more closely on TV and in the flesh these days and a lot of the 'glamour' of flying has dissapeared in the last decade. Its getting so routine these days.

Economic times have been good for 5 years or more and young people have had plenty of job options available. In particular the IT industry sucked up a lot of high calibre people and spat them out with comfy jobs and well padded salaries.

Many teenagers lost all contact with military flying durining the 90's as local bases closed and ATC units were withdrawn. The cold war was no longer being fought and there were no nightly news items showing steely eyed Phantom pilots on QRA etc. etc.

Over the last few weeks I suspect many Wannabes have tuned out of this forum because they don't want to hear the bad news, are taking a break from serious Wannabeism until the crisis has passed, or, have decided to just go for it and are too busy with their plans.

They'll all be back.

I know that many cast me as the Head Doomsayer.

This is a little unfair. All I have advised is that anyone starting on a full time course and able to do so wait 3 - 6 months before starting is they can.

Additionally I have tried to contextualize and put ballpark figures on the upcoming pilot hiring market.

To summarise:

160 Virgin pilots
200 BA pilots - don't care that they have retired from Speedbird, at least this many will re-surface in other airlines to while out their last 5 -10 years of flying.
70 Gill pilots

---

80 Aer Lingus cadets
40 BMI cadets
130 BA cadets albeit in a holding pool but bet your bottom dollar that they will be applying for every job going whilst in that pool
60 pilots who were under contract to start with airlines but who have been terminated prior to their type ratings

---

The full time colleges will collectively output 340 full time ab inito cadets self sponsored in the next 12 months

There will be about another 400 self sponsored students graduating in the next 12 months.

All joining the approx 300 (Co-Pilot Register) pilots actively seeking employment prior to WTC.

---

An unknown quantity of pilots from abroad. With Swissair, Sabena, Ansett, AirNZ to mention but a few either collapsed or waiting for the day there are an unknown number of ex-colonial or JAA member state pilots out there.

---

UK airline recruitment needs over the next 2 years will be.........?

Million Dollar Question.

Traditionally about 450 in the good times according to the IPA.

---

Good luck,

WWW

[clear prop!!!]

Oh well, it’s always good to think positively!!


WWW….. I have to say that this is becoming a little bit tiresome. Every time someone tries to put a positive spin on things or offers a suggestion that this cyclical industry might just remain cyclical …you hijack the thread and pour even more gloom and doom.

You have gone beyond offering advice and have become a complete and utter negative pain in the arse.. It might ‘just’ look like a case of Jack being all right.

Do you not hear what those who have been in the business for at least 10 years longer than your 5 months are telling you on your other doomsday threads?

Don’t bother to reply….I, like others have had enough and won’t be here to read your predictable condescending and patronising reply!

CP...OUT! :mad:

[Devils Advocate]

Imho WWW is right to suggest a rethink on folks training time-scales because, as many of us know, getting your break into this business is more about luck, who you know, and timing, than anything to do with what grades you got in you (F)ATPL exams or some such.

To be fair, until a few weeks ago we'd all have said that it was probably ok to steam full-speed ahead and get the license exam and flying tests done - such that you'd be ready for the 'seasonal' recruitment period which would normally start at the end of the summer season - in an apparently buoyant market.
However it's now all changed. Very soon there will be experienced & type-rated pilots almost begging for jobs, e.g. - and somewhat cruelly -

Q ) "What do you say to a Virgin B747-200 or BA-EOG B737 pilot ?"

A ) "Big Mac and fries please mate !"

I joke yee not. :(

So, and whilst it might be an unpalatable truth, the fact is that if you passed you exams yesterday and your IR today it's very likely that you'll not stand an earthly chance at securing that coveted first flying job for quite some time to come - the airlines are all reviewing their hiring (and firing) and are basically waiting for the dust to settle (so to speak) in the wake of Sept 11th (and some airlines are indeed using that heinous day as an excuse to chop-out some folks who'd already become surplus to requirements pre September 11th).

Also, the harsh reality is that to secure a flying job you need to hit the market place with your flying skills as current as possible, i.e. having a stale IR will do you no favours when it comes to passing a sim check and, unless you have a lot of cash, keeping up that level of flying proficiency is very hard to do.

So, imho, that is why WWW is suggesting a rethink on the previously sanctioned headlong rush - i.e. he's not being negative, just realistic !

[DoleBoy]

My opinion is that maybe WWW is protecting his own position in the market which let's face it makes him a realist and would anyone else do anything different (Sorry if I'm way off the mark WWW it's just an opinion), He gave me some advice some time ago regarding myself and a bad experience with an instructor while doing my BCPL, the advice was to question if it was the instructor or my abilities that were at fault, I listened to what he and others said thought about it and in the end I grabbed the bull by the horns and decided the only way to get around the constant Bo^&$"&ings was to become what the instructor wanted a Professional, this made all the difference and the guy signed me off with plenty of praise to boot, I then missed out on the deadline due WX but that's another story. My advice is I have learnt that there is never a good time to do anything in aviation but remember it was/is what we all dream of and with hard work and determination most make it, maybe it's later rather than sooner for most but what the hell even if you don't make it to the RHS you probably have done more with your life than many other people out there. ;)

[ 30 September 2001: Message edited by: DoleBoy ]

[Chunks]

Do airlines ever get sponsored cadet pilots dropping out?

[fuddly duddly]

dole boy

hear, hear.
at last positive attitudes!

more of this please wannabes( and this includes you mr www.) (http://www.)) :cool:

[Shanks]

:mad: Dole Boy - you are completely out of order, WWW already HAS the career we're chasing and yet has spent his own time passing on his experience and advice. To accuse him of posting advice in order to safeguard his position shows complete ignorance - unless I'M well off the mark, you and the rest of us wannabes pose no threat to his career whatsoever (why did you chose that pseudonym anyway???).

I'd already made my mind up on postponing investing my savings for a few months to see how things panned out, however this is simply what WWW was advising. To do otherwise would have been highly irresponsible in his role as a moderator.

Rank, forget the facts (large numbers of experienced pilots out of work, sponsored students completing their courses with no jobs, the rest of the sponsored courses postponed but ready to start up again at short notice, possible competition for European jobs from unemployed pilots from further afield) - go ahead, splash out 50K and start your course now!!! Don't hold off a while to see what happens to the industry, and certainly don't take the more cautious modular route. Feel any better for that blindly optomistic (OK, very sarcastic) advice? :mad:

[fuddly duddly]

shanks!,

sarcasm is noted, but it is not required. yes this is a troubling time for the industry, and i do sympathise with all those who are shortly to be out of work ( been there a couple of times myself) but if we all just gave up at the slightest sign of trouble then i feel we would be in a worse state than we are in at the moment.
i did not wish to let anyone get the wrong idea al i wanted to do was try to convey a sense of optimistic confidence, not get up anyones noses.
any to get anywhere in this game then i think a thick skin is required.

see ya
toodle pip!! ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not sure just how I could protect my position. I am merely giving my best assessment of the current situation based on my limited insight.

I am suprised Clear Prop!! that you can get so annoyed by that. If you think I am wrong then by all means present your views and perhaps you'll persuade me.

No doubt about the fact the industry will bounce back. Its just the timing is so critical to Wannabes. Its all very well saying things will be OK againin 2 years time in an offhand manner. TWO YEARS!!! Cripes, what the hell are you supposed to do with a Frzn ATPL 200hrs, no job and a £50k debt?!? :eek:

You end up flipping burgers and getting rusty. Then when you get a sim ride you flunk it becuase you are so out of practice. Its a NIGHTMARE. I have several good friend, real mates, in just this situation and I tell you its horrific and I can't find much in the way of good news or silver linings for them - much as I try.

Facts are that over the last 3 weeks Wannabe job hunting or sponsorship prospects have fallen off an enormous cliff. We went from a buoyant market to a total freeze and hundreds of unemployed experienced pilots available in a matter of a week or two.

If YOU have a problem with the fact that this matter has featured on PPRuNe Wannabes so heavily then that is your naivety.

No airline is hiring. All sponsorships are cancelled (I am pretty sure BEA will do the same but I am waiting on confirmation on that one).

When I was a Wannabe who didn't know much about the aviation industry back in say 1998 the one thing I really really used PPRuNe for was gathering a 'feel' for the hiring market. Its more important than anything to do with training costs, choice of school, CAA regulations et al. Much more important.

I look forward to the industry upswing as much as the next man. I'm sure near the bottom of my seniority list and quite frankly its a chilling prospect.

Still - no need for anyone to fall out. I am sure that were we having these discussions in a bar we would all be getting on famously, even if we did not share the same view. Nature of the medium and all that.

Cheers,

WWW

[northern boy]

Gentlemen, the only pilots that the airlines will consider now and for some time to come are those with appropiate type ratings and relevant experience counted in the thousands of hours.

I know this because I and others have suddenly re-entered the job market.The competition is fierce. I have valid ratings on the A320, 737, 146 and ATP, 3500 hrs and 6 years continous airline experience and I can find exactly zip in the way of a job.

Things will not improve until the new year at the earliest providing no-one hijacks any more airliners.

If you have a career then stick with it for the time being because the airlines recruitment needs will be met from the ranks of people like me and my colleages who have families to feed for some time to come.

The reason? we cost less to put on line and represent less training risk than a 200hr wanabee no matter how keen.Its that simple.

We all want things to pick up but naive wishful thinking and slagging off WWW and the others who take the time to spell out the facts of life to you will not make it better.

[Cypher]

WWW - I'm glad someone has their head out of the sand.

I'm in that position that your mate is in. Getting rusty, trying to scrape whatever to live on blah blah blah.

You are right, no one is hiring, and airlines are falling over left right and centre.

If you thing that things are all rosy and the world is a cheery place, I suggest taking off those rose coloured lenses. Things take a long time to bounce back in the aviation world.

But the decision is up to you.

[CliffordAgius]

Well Thanks to you all for your insight into the industry. I am about to start my training by flying to the USA this weekend for my PPL etc and plan to start ground exams in January.

I have read most of the posts and threads on the PPRUNE network and with great interest.

However I'm sure you all see a career in aviation, as lifetime dream. I have been working as an engineer for the past years always with the dream of becoming a pilot.

I now have the funds and plan to put myself through the training. I do hope that the industry recovers in the next 2 years so that when I do qualify there will be jobs. However if this is not the case at least I'll know that I have tried and I can still use my training flying part time (GA).

So my outlook on all this is that it's a personal dream and a personal battle, which I fully intend, on fulfilling.

And before anyone thinks it NO I don't have cash to burn my funds are from working very hard and long a saving like a demon!

So to all my fellow wannabes don't lose sight of the dream that has got you this far. After all if you don't do it now (Or even soon!) you'll be kicking yourself for year to come.

But having said all that thanks to the people like WWW and other with the (Dare I say it!) negative vibe as it have made me think and prove to myself that this is my dream.

Dillon.
;)

[Clare Blacklock]

It's fantastic to see that others are not giving up on their dreams of a flying career - good luck to all!

Although not a pilot myself, I have been a "wannabe" for many years, but denied the chance of a professional flying career by 0.25 dioptres. The day before the tragic events in the US, I found out the JAA Medical committee had agreed in priciple on the proposals to increase the eyesight requirements and that I'd meet them. For 24 hours, I was probably the happiest lass on the planet.

Now I very much doubt if this will happen, especially with so many experienced pilots being let go. This in itself is a tragedy and my heart goes out to all that find themselves in this position. I'm not just saying that either - I have a friend who flies professionally in the US and know how tough things are over there.

Maybe I am crazy to still want to pursue this (feel free to disagree!!) as my chances are very slim. Even if I only end up with a PPL, it will be an achievement in itself. In that vein, I encourage anyone with an interest and the funds to go for it.

In the meantime, I shall carry on with my final year in Aerospace Technology and hope to hell there is an industry for me to go into after five years of study and £10k of debt.

Long live commercial aviation - the world depends on it.

[fuddly duddly]

Gaun yirsells,clara, billy and dillon !
Like you lot I am not dripping with readies, but, I am paying for my training on a month to month basis on my salary (who gives a monkies if the wee one needs shoes)
I also do ops at my flying club to part cover the cost of my training, plus it is a good way to learn about a lot about flying in situations that you may never come across in your own flying training.
However, as WWW and others have pointed out
caution does need to be exercised , but you need to look carefully at your own situation and make your own decisions, at the end of the day it would be unwise to be sitting with a frozen ATPL and 250 odd hours and unable to get a job at the end of it, with bills etc. coming in.
Anyway that is the last i will say on this thread (hurray!!) except that Rank Badjin expects all Wannabes to do their best and be the best pilots they can be however fasr they get, because after all it is the goal we all seek.
Look after youselves and fly carefully.


Ta Ta!!
:cool: