Impact of a wider war on ME3

[5strypes]

With tensions rising between Iran and Israel, multiple airlines have rerouted around Iranian airspace. Qantas have cancelled direct Perth-Heathrow flights to avoid overflight.

My question is, what effect will this have on the ME3, who are mostly all apparently in a bit of a boom currently? You would imagine it will greatly affect world travel in general, but specifically to and through the Middle East. Will oil prices explode and are we potentially looking at the start of a new downturn?

Apologies for the wholly negative view.

​​​

[milhouse999]

With tensions rising between Iran and Israel, multiple airlines have rerouted around Iranian airspace. Qantas have cancelled direct Perth-Heathrow flights to avoid overflight.

My question is, what effect will this have on the ME3, who are mostly all apparently in a bit of a boom currently? You would imagine it will greatly affect world travel in general, but specifically to and through the Middle East. Will oil prices explode and are we potentially looking at the start of a new downturn?

Apologies for the wholly negative view.

​​​

EK are still overflying Iran including flights from the UK. At one point they flew over Iraq instead but did this change?

[Hotclown]

Nothing

i don't think uae is reckless as israel

[richardstroker]

Qantas have not cancelled LHR PER

[SpringHeeledJack]

But it has been converted to a QF209 flight number and a fuel stop in SIN for the foreseeable future.

[AfricanSkies]

Assuming Iranian and Northern Iraqi airspace closures, ME3 would all have to route north via Egypt, which would be quite a bottleneck and would affect ultra long range flights to the US due to extra distance. Libya, Sudan, Syria and Ukraine are closed.

[what-to-do]

With tensions rising between Iran and Israel, multiple airlines have rerouted around Iranian airspace. Qantas have cancelled direct Perth-Heathrow flights to avoid overflight.

My question is, what effect will this have on the ME3, who are mostly all apparently in a bit of a boom currently? You would imagine it will greatly affect world travel in general, but specifically to and through the Middle East. Will oil prices explode and are we potentially looking at the start of a new downturn?

Apologies for the wholly negative view.

​​​

Flew there (Iran) the other night :=

[5strypes]

Flew there (Iran) the other night :=
That may have been your last one for a while...

[dhc1180]

Would anyone operate to TLV at present? I for one wouldn’t.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Well I’m guessing you won’t be flying over Iran anytime in the near future…..

[Raph737]

The whole thing is a poo show. They did attack the embassy but somehow the “right to defend itself” only applies to them. There is legitimacy under international law over this retaliation and albeit the rhetoric is very much on Israel’s side, we’d hope that there are grown ups in the room as these people simply want chaos. We had enough of trouble as an industry in the last five years and this is the last thing we need for our livelihoods, whether you fly in the ME or not. I believe that escalation would lead to the beginning of a dry period. Oil barrel will inevitably go up and there would be supply issues due to trade routes closures. Also, the potential to retaliation in our home soils through terrorist cells can cause nervousness in the general public. People tend not to fly to certain places because of fear, remember the Tunisia beach attack led
to near destruction of tourism there, my own airline ceased their contract there altogether because of it. This is not looking good, and all because our leaders are weak and don’t have the cojones to tell the Israelis to go to bed as they did enough nonsense already. I feel that Emirates and Qatar will slow recruitment until there’s some clarity on how the markets will be affected. Etihad survives because of rich leadership but they weren’t hiring enough as it is. They were all worried about losing pilots to Saudi so that’s the only positive for them, if it does escalate, nobody is moving.

[FQT2YS]

The whole thing is a poo show. They did attack the embassy but somehow the “right to defend itself” only applies to them. There is legitimacy under international law over this retaliation and albeit the rhetoric is very much on Israel’s side, we’d hope that there are grown ups in the room as these people simply want chaos. We had enough of trouble as an industry in the last five years and this is the last thing we need for our livelihoods, whether you fly in the ME or not. I believe that escalation would lead to the beginning of a dry period. Oil barrel will inevitably go up and there would be supply issues due to trade routes closures. Also, the potential to retaliation in our home soils through terrorist cells can cause nervousness in the general public. People tend not to fly to certain places because of fear, remember the Tunisia beach attack led
to near destruction of tourism there, my own airline ceased their contract there altogether because of it. This is not looking good, and all because our leaders are weak and don’t have the cojones to tell the Israelis to go to bed as they did enough nonsense already. I feel that Emirates and Qatar will slow recruitment until there’s some clarity on how the markets will be affected. Etihad survives because of rich leadership but they weren’t hiring enough as it is. They were all worried about losing pilots to Saudi so that’s the only positive for them, if it does escalate, nobody is moving.

Sounds like a very realistic scenario. If that escalates any further, it will have a massive impact. Not just on the ME carriers…

[Raph737]

Sounds like a very realistic scenario. If that escalates any further, it will have a massive impact. Not just on the ME carriers…

The North Atlantic market is saturated and there’s no expansion for EU/UK airlines. Many are hiring frantically due to knee-jerk reactions during COVID. So if this kicks off, they can slow down and pilots won’t be able to return from the sandpit.

The ME3, only QR and EK have serious projects in my view, specially QR with their money orders and capacity expansion at Doha airport but if people are scared of flying to ME or through it, now what?
low demand, high fuel costs, management goes after T&C’s, unhappy pilots leave, no jobs back home because let’s face, Europe and UK are over. UK for example has an inflation rate of 4% and the highest energy bills in the world. An ME wide war will make it extremely unattractive to live there and pay even more to survive on heavily taxed salaries. High crime, a number of post Brexit issues, crap weather etc. Every angle you look at this there’s poo, al over it.

I find it extremely concerning. Just an opinion.

[Hotclown]

The whole thing is a poo show. They did attack the embassy but somehow the “right to defend itself” only applies to them. There is legitimacy under international law over this retaliation and albeit the rhetoric is very much on Israel’s side, we’d hope that there are grown ups in the room as these people simply want chaos. We had enough of trouble as an industry in the last five years and this is the last thing we need for our livelihoods, whether you fly in the ME or not. I believe that escalation would lead to the beginning of a dry period. Oil barrel will inevitably go up and there would be supply issues due to trade routes closures. Also, the potential to retaliation in our home soils through terrorist cells can cause nervousness in the general public. People tend not to fly to certain places because of fear, remember the Tunisia beach attack led
to near destruction of tourism there, my own airline ceased their contract there altogether because of it. This is not looking good, and all because our leaders are weak and don’t have the cojones to tell the Israelis to go to bed as they did enough nonsense already. I feel that Emirates and Qatar will slow recruitment until there’s some clarity on how the markets will be affected. Etihad survives because of rich leadership but they weren’t hiring enough as it is. They were all worried about losing pilots to Saudi so that’s the only positive for them, if it does escalate, nobody is moving.

finally someone wise here

[valhalla634]

Israel had every right to bomb the Iranian consulate in Syria and Iran does not have any right to respond. If you say otherwise then you are being antisemitic.

[Raph737]

Israel had every right to bomb the Iranian consulate in Syria and Iran does not have any right to respond. If you say otherwise then you are being antisemitic.

The antisemitism card ran out of credit I’m afraid, it’s been declined. Do you have another one?

Because bombing civilians, murdering toddlers and babies, starving then to death based on their race and religion(palestinians are semites) is in fact, antisemitism.

[Aero_manoloman]

Israel had every right to bomb the Iranian consulate in Syria and Iran does not have any right to respond. If you say otherwise then you are being antisemitic.

70% of the people living in Israel are Jewish. Among those the vast majority are Sephardi and Ashkenazi. They aren't Semitic but Iberian and Northern European. On the other hand the majority of Arabs are semitic. So if you're going to use the anti-semitic card at least know who are "descendants of Sem" and who aren't. Taking into account all the events preceding what's happening right now and understanding that the people who are suffering weren't really looking for trouble (Either in Israel, Iran, Syria, Lebanon or Palestine) is not anti-semitism. We're all fed up with the crap that our politicians put us through but in the current events it's very clear who the bad guys are (not meaning that the others are the good guys either).

[Giuff]

It is quiet clear that Israel will respond, probably in the next 36 hrs.
Leaving politics aside, lets hope for the best.
This could be another Covid.

[SaagPaneer]

Anybody know if this will affect our bonus at EK?

[Senior Pilot]

Numerous posts moderated and two contributors given a week off.

This is not a thread for Politics, racial stereotyping or general JetBlast garbage. Any more and the thread will be closed.

[Raph737]

I think that the Big 3 will be fine, was looking at Flight radar and the routes were open even ofer Iranian airspace for them. Remember that the Emir and the UAE big chiefs all have cordial relations with them.

[Sailvi767]

It’s getting very biblical, something about a flood now!