War with Irak!!!!!!!

[xabi200]

Hey guys,

What do you think the job opportunities will be once war would have started with Irak?

In my opinion we will be back to square one which is sept 11th or even worse last war with Irak.

Any one here could have a word with Blair and Bush?

Good luck to all.

[Just_Another_PPL]

Firstly it is Iraq.

A war would be good, it would reduce oil prices (after obvioulsy) and this would give an airlines an advantage.

[ETOPS MAN]

How would a war on Iraq reduce oil prices?

If Dubbya gets his six shooter out in the near future and attacks Iraq without the nod from the UN security council and some kind of support from the Arab world...............watch the the Saudi 's put the squeeze on prices! :eek:

This could be their way of giving a very dissaproving message
to Dubbya!

In my opinion only :cool:

[Luke SkyToddler]

Dubbya's not as stupid as everyone thinks he is ... you watch.

The game plan will be

1. Invade Iraq, kick out Saddam and instal US-friendly regime.

2. Get that Iraqi oil flowing to the USA again.

3. By virtue of steps (1) and (2) you have now secured an alternative supply of oil for the 'states before you carry out your main master plan, which is ...

4. Go in there and sort out the real bad boys of islamic fundamentalist terrorism, which is of course the Saudis themselves

THAT is the country that needs to be brought to heel. Has everyone forgotten the nationality of Osama himself (and 3/4 of the hijackers)? Saudi Arabia is the home of Islam, just like Rome and Catholicism. Just about all of the anti-US poison that sloshes around the middle east originates as edicts from a handful of the chief Islamic clerics and high priests, who are all Saudis, and all based in Mecca or Medina. The only way to get a long term resolution to this hate-America fixation that's been going on for decades is to isolate or depose that crowd.

It's that simple. This has got ****** all to do with Saddam getting hold of nukes, and to be honest I can't even see him being stupid enough to fire them if he had them. George Bush can't start a war with Saudi Arabia - or even start talking tough to them - until he's got his oil supply from elsewhere, and the only country that can supply it in the requisite amounts is Iraq.

[Wedge]

Some very good points there Luke, but I am not sure about point 4.

One of the ways of getting support behind war on Iraq is to persuade all the morons that Saddam is a threat to us, and judging by the (English) people on the news who were asked about it the propaganda is succeeding:

"He's going to kill us so we have to kill him first". Utter nonsense but Dubbya won't be complaining, the vast majority of thick Americans think the same thing.

There is no way Saddam could get the capability to launch a nuclear attack on the UK/USA. The only credible threat is a terror, chemical or 'dirty bomb' attack.

True that oil (therefore economic) interests are the primary factor for America - but they also want Saddam removed for strategic political reasons.

I don't think that the long term plan is to 'sort out' Saudi Arabia however. Even if it were possible I don't see how America could silence the voice of Islam forever (which in their perfect world they would). I'm not at all sure that America does have point 4 on the agenda Luke. The Saudis are an 'ally' of America - remember that they participated in the previous Gulf War on the Allied side. They would still need large amounts of Saudi oil even if the Iraqi supplies became available to them.

Just_Another_PPL - I can't see how a war on Iraq would be positive in any way for wannabes. The price of oil short term would rocket, the public would stop flying again, airlines would go out of business, pilots would be layed off etc etc etc. It's not something wannabes should be supporting for their own selfish reasons.

Whether it should be supported for other reasons, well I am still undecided. America cannot go ahead with the sole support of the UK. But we would all (including the long suffering Iraqi people) like to see Saddam taken out. And I mean taken out properly.

[Shanks]

Saw an article in the Guardian by Mo Mowlam in which point 4 was held up as the main reason for the removal of Saddam:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,786332,00.html

And another along the same lines by a reporter in The Observer:

http://www.observer.co.uk/iraq/story/0,12239,772577,00.html

Whatever the reason, we have no idea what the outcome of a war on Iraq and the reaction of mainly Muslim countries. The situation worries me far more than the prospect of no work for me in aviation upon completion of an ATPL course...so what the hell, I may as well go for it!!! :eek: :confused: :cool:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Personally I am somewhat persuaded by the theory of a benign Iraq allowing an anti-Saudi stance.

However, in the context of Wannabeism, a war would be bad news. Oil prices spike, insurers get greedy, Joe American doesn't travel abroad and everybody worries about bombs on airliners.

There are now genuine signs that things are picking up. I am hearing daily of people being recalled to lost jobs. Looking 3 month ahead when the traditional airline hiring season will be wide open I can see significant movement. Ryanair and EZY's requirements alone will see 2 new crews a week. BA may well need to hire once the TEP's are soaked up in 6 months and the frnachises are already recruiting in some cases.

If the economy can just pootle along and avoid a recession as looks likely then next year could see significant opportunities arising for airline recruitment.

51 weeks ago people were having a go at me for being too downbeat about recruitment. Unfortunately the downbeat analysis held true for this year. If a major conflict in the Gulf can be avoided then I am mildly upbeat about next years prospects.

Cheers

WWW

[Nearly Man]

Why not try to keep this forum in the same ball park as asking what a war will do to flying jobs in the near future?

I don't see anything in the original question as a starter for ill thought out opinions or table top battle plans?

[Wedge]

Nearly man - just as I was about to reply I see you edited your post.

I am glad you withdrew the 'racist' accuasation but not before I saw it. I have seen no racism here, and the only ill thought out rubbish was what you had just posted.

[Nearly Man]

Wedge

Couldn't give a flying f@@k if you saw what I wrote or what you think of it!
I took the racist bit off cos I didn't want replies from clowns like youself ... go on, reply again and make me laugh!

I didn't make my post personal or aimed at anyone, just posts like that don't have anything to do with jobs or the job market, do they?

So, if you don't like it, too bad fella and you can blow it outa your arse

[Shanks]

Nearly Man,

I think the original question does have relevance on this forum. With the hindsight of the impact of the Gulf War on the aviation industry, I think it's a question which many wannabes will want to debate as they think of embarking on a course of studies.

[Gassbag]

BLACK GOLD.
I blame OPEC. Nothing more than a price rigging club. They like to keep the price of oil between $22 and $28 a barrell. They have their reasons.
Well if you bought oil from Russia, who aren't in OPEC that would put the willies up them. But we can't control whose crude we buy it's not up to us.
OOOOHHH
I'M GETTING ANGRY
I'M GOING.
:mad: :mad:

[Superpilot]

Luke and Just_another_PPL,

When you have stopped chewing on your cigars, and removed from your desks your feet try taking a reality check and do some research on the reality of war. Have you no value for human life? or wait, is that only an American / European (white) life? A new war is going to topple any minute chance the aviation industry had of recovering. It's going to kill thousands more, ruin millions of lives and result in hundreds of thousand of job losses.

One thing that is bugging me…I would like to ask you how you can be so sure of the nationalities of the hijackers. It made the BBC and CNN foot-lines, 7 of the so-called hijackers the FBI put forward are still alive and one died 2 years earlier!!! Making 8 people totally unaccounted for, unidentified, lost, forgotten and brushed aside to justify this con war. (19-8)/19 is just over half, not ¾’s.

Furthermore, an end to the “hate America fixation” is not going to come about with Dubbya nuking those god damn aye-raaabs to hell!!! It’s only going to come about when the so-called “civilised” leaders get their fingers from underneath their arses and start to give a fecking ***** about the rest of the world.

The greatest danger to world peace and economic stability is an unelected half-wit living on the other side of the pond. Why don't you open your bloody eyes. :mad:

;)

[PPRuNe Radar]

Nearly Man's point ... which seems to have been missed .... was that the answers were talking about the politics of the situation. The vehicle for raising and debating those aspects already exists in other more appropriate Fora ... such as JetBlast or Military Aircrew.

Apart from the exchanges about Nearly Man's point and the replies to that specific point ... 6 replies so far made absolutely no mention of how the whole situation might affect the industry against 2 which did. We don't need to debate the whys and wherefores of the looming war on this Forum ... what people want to hear are viewpoints on the possible ramifications for those who are embarking on careers in aviation, as well as those who are already on the wannabe treadmill, or looking for that first elusive job.

So, if you want to talk politics without any link at all to the purpose of this Forum, do it in the right place.

Perhaps this thread gives a lesson to Wannabes in a way .... when the time comes to sit the ATPL exam ... read the question carefully ... and answer what is being asked, not what you think you'd like to be asked.

[tigershark1]

I agree with Pprune Radar too many of the subject starting points get sidelined for pointless personal debates.
The issue here is that a war would put the industry back again. Dubbya and Blair seem to have an illusion that it would be quick to remove saddam, it won't. This for wannabies means that the effects may well be the same as the gulf war where recruitment was tough for quite a few years after.

I can also see that if the war does go ahead then more people will be pissed off with the west and, i hope I am wrong, but there may be more attacks on us the pilot fraturnity (via terrorist activity) which will drive people away more people from the market. Results as seen last year. Lets just hope that WWW is correct (as he has been) in predicting the U-turn in the job market.

War = Problems for wannabies because it would not be a quick one.

Just my thoughts
TS1

[Luke SkyToddler]

All right, PPRune Radar & Nearly Man :

I think the answer to the question "will wannabe airline pilot's short term employment prospects be damaged in the event of another Gulf war" is a short, sweet and bleedin' obvious YES!! As long as Dubbya's boys are busy rushing about in Osama's homeland like a bull in a china shop, then I for one will not be flying on any aircraft going to or from the states.

I do think however that discussion of the USA's wider aims and ambitions is a valid topic of conversation for this thread. It's clear to me that until there is some permanent moves to settle down the politics of the middle east, the aviation industry will continue to have a cloud hanging over it. If, however, they can work a miracle and bring about some kind of a settlement that's acceptable to all parties and cools the hot heads of Hamas / Al Qaeda etc, then we could be heading into some absolute golden years for aviation, the wannabe scene, and the world economy in general.

[Wedge]

Hello again Nearly Man

"Couldn't give a flying f@@k if you saw what I wrote or what you think of it! "
"So, if you don't like it, too bad fella and you can blow it outa your arse"

Don't see how you can reconcile those two statements. If you couldn't give a f**k why did you reply? Touched a nerve there!!
:D :D :D

Wishy washy lefty student nonsense!

OK I have been drawn into an innappropriate slanging match here and I realise that some of the posts on this thread may not be entirely relevant to the question. However the whole issue of a war in Iraq has great implications for wannabes so I don't see why the rights and wrongs of it should not be discussed here.


Edited for typos

[PPRuNe Radar]

Luke,

Why didn't you make your most recent post in the first place ? It's certainly more relevant now and actually answering the topic which was raised. Thanks.

Wedge

It's the implications of the war that we want opinion on, the rights and wrongs can be discussed elsewhere. Not sure which bit of that you don't understand.

[Sagey]

Mmmm

War on Iraq etc, well there is an obvious case example of the Gulf War and I don't think anyone needs to know how that hit the aviation industry.

As an economics grad, I do not get the bit about a war lowering the cost of oil. I remember a professor at University gleefully telling us that he was invited to a meeting about oil prices during the Gulf War. Many economists were sitting there stating extremely complicated theories and formulas, his answer was simple, it is supply and demand. Demand for oil is inelastic, supply is threatened so there will be a short term oil price hike. He was proved correct.

A war on Iraq will certainly not help the UK or USA economies, both have been surviving due to consumer expenditure. A war will affect consumer expenditure, and I would expect both economies to enter recession.

Business travel still hasn't fully recovered from Sept 11th, the holiday market is picking up, but that is partly related a) increasing confidence in air travel, b) consumption going around in the economy.

I honestly cannot believe that a war on Iraq can be positive for air travel or wannabes. I sadly can only see it increasing redundancies, leaving an experience available workforce , with new license holders miles back in the queue.

Sorry to be all gloom

Sagey

[Pilot16]

whateva hapened to 'peace' 'justice' and 'freedom', doesnt bush see that so many inncocent people mainly children are already dying in Iraq everyday as a direct result of its economic sanctions? i sometimes cant stop my self from thinking that the west
only sees amercan lives. A Million lives (mainly children) have been lost in Iraq after the Gulf war as a result of this sanction. babies are born prematurely, childrens in mulnutrition and deprived of education. We dont need more killing in this world than we already have. What harm is this sanction doing to saddam? yet its the innocent people that suffer.

Yes, it will effect the aviation market, we all want a job. I certainly do after i finishing all my expensive training. I am very young and have limited experience in life, but I can say quite confidently those people in Iraq dont need any more WARS in there lives...they are already suffering enough having to struggle to find their next meal. Just because it is not on BBC and CNN, doesnt mean its not happening. Atleast we people are privelliged eat to our to eat to our full.
What should be of more concern is that MORE lives will be lost in this WAR.
And whats this about Islamic fundumentalism? Its quite obvious I think why so many Muslims (and others) in this world are against American policy...lets just OPEN our EYES. Is a war on IRAQ really necessary?

[Seriph]

Pilot16, is the 16 your age or IQ? Who do you think is responsible for the deaths of millions of Iraqi's and their neighbours, the USA?Hussain could comply with UN resolutions and give his people one of the highest standards of living in the world. So why doesn't he ? Who killed millions in a war with Iran? Has tried chemical weapons on his own subjects? Invaded Kuwait? Murders opponents without any qualms? Could it be that he is a very wicked and evil man who wants to rule or destroy the world? If so should we let him in the interests of peace, justice and freedom and of course your job.

[InTheAir]

Seriph,

The man you describe is a manufactured tyrant, a puppet of the US. If he committed any crimes he more than likely done it with the permission of the US at some point. Bear in mind, all that you say about him is not true just because you or the West say so. One thing we in the West are good at is demonizing our enemies. Read for example the interview with Yvonne Ridley, the journo who got captured by the Taleban.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

All very interesting chaps but not really appropriate to this forum. By all means go discuss Mr Hussein and the wider geo-political issues on Jet Blast or Non Aviation forums.

Try: http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=65904

And read this first: http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,786332,00.html


The impact on the airline hiring market is a valid discussion here though.

WWW

[Wedge]

Why was my last post deleted? I was making some important points about OPEC and the oil price fixing.

Can a moderator tell me why my post was deleted please?

[PPRuNe Radar]

Wedge

The reason is in the PM I sent to you when I deleted your post. A post which contained nothing about Wannabes or the effects on the aviation industry. Just more political and economic viewpoints.

You posted this after I twice said that we were not here to discuss anything other than in the context of Wannabes. You did not heed that and seem to think that you can dictate the site policy and are above moderation somehow. This is now stated for a third time by WWW above.

It won't be stated for a fourth time, I can assure you.

[Wedge]

PPRuNe Radar

Thanks for the PM which I have now read. Sorry if it appeared that I thought I was above moderation also, that was not my intention.

I realise that there needs to be strict moderation and that here only subjects relevant to wannabes should be discussed. If you read my first post I was addressing both the politics and the implications for wannabes - as indeed did WWW:

"Personally I am somewhat persuaded by the theory of a benign Iraq allowing an anti-Saudi stance."

My point was that the politics has great implications for wannabes and that's why I continued to discuss it here. We are all agreed that the war would have a great impact on the pilot market and therefore surely it can be argued that the politics of the war is a reasonable debate. Clearly you don't agree, but in my opinion at times the moderation does get a little over-zealous.

[scroggs]

Pprune Radar tried to put it politely, but it seems that some of you do not understand his version of English.

The question, which was entirely appropriate, was basically 'What would the effect of a war in Iraq be with respect to the international pilot jobs market?' Address your answers to this question, and this question only. Those of you with better memory than your average goldfish will remember that this topic came up only a few weeks ago. I even had to take myself in hand for getting off the topic!

If you want to discuss politics, justice, the price of fish, beer, cars or whatever DO IT SOMEWHERE ELSE!!! This forum and, yes, this topic, is for the discussion of matters DIRECTLY relevant to the business of getting your licences or your first job.

I have no problem with deleting the entire thread if you fail to understand this final, final warning!

[xabi200]

I was effectivelly more concerned about my immediate future (selfishly?) as a pilot.

So, as www stated, I'm only interested about the repercussion on the industry

I'd like to thanks www who always comes up with interesting post. I would agree with him that a war would put us back to the sept 11th situation at best (It is picking up quite well after only 10 months) and at gulf war at worse (Little jobs for nearly 10 year).
Nevertheless, few more years to wait for a decent job (I'm lucky I've got one) is too long. Specially if that war could be avaoided.

Thank you as well to the few people out there who know how to read a question.

For all the others "read the ****ing question".

Good luck to all.

[Shanks]

Apologies Nearly Man, I misread your original post...though the tone of your second was a little inflammatory ;)