Do weathermen forecast rain just to keep everyone else off the golf course?

[JimEli]

Does anyone know of any studies which quantify the accuracy of NOAA aviation weather forecasts?

Pilots depend upon these forecasts to make go/no-go decisions, and are ultimately held responsible for the decisions. Many times pilots are accused of using “bad judgement” when relying on these products. But if the data used to make these decisions is unreliable (or worse, wrong), maybe we should be doing it a differnet way.

Why Are Weather Forecasts Often Wrong? (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-are-weather-forecasts-often-wrong/)

[Luther Sebastian]

Amateur speaking here, and in the UK, but in five years I can remember exactly one time when the forecast turned out to be spectacularly wrong, and even then it just meant we had to do the exercise to the east of the field rather than the west.