NATO vs Russia [Archive] - Page 2

Rockie_Rapier

10th Mar 2024, 07:20

https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/minister-radoslaw-sikorski-deliveres-speech-at-the-un-security-council
And here's the text of that speech.
Madame President,

I associate myself with the words of minister Kuleba and my colleagues from the European Union.

I’m amazed at the tone and the content of the presentation by the Russian ambassador.

And I thought I could be useful by correcting the record. Ambassador Nebenzya has called Kyiv a client of the West. Actually, Kyiv is fighting to be independent of anybody.

He calls them a criminal Kyiv regime. In fact, Ukraine has a democratically elected government.

He calls them Nazis. Well, the president is Jewish, the defence minister is Muslim, and they have no political prisoners.

He said that Ukraine was wallowing in corruption. Well, Alexei Navalny documented how honest and full of probity his own country is.

He blamed the war on US neo-colonialism. In fact, Russia was trying to exterminate Ukraine in the 19th century, again under Bolsheviks, and now it is the third attempt.

He said we are prisoners of Russophobia. “Phobia” means irrational fear. Yet, we are being threatened almost every day by the former president of Russia and Putin’s propagandists with nuclear annihilation. I put it to you that it is not irrational – when Russia threatens us, we trust them.

He said that we are denying Russia’s security interests. Not true. We only started rearming ourselves when Russia started invading her neighbours.

He even said that Poland attacked Russia during World War II. What is he talking about? It was the Soviet Union that attacked Poland together with Nazi Germany on the 17th of September 1939. They even held a joint victory parade on the 22th of September.

He says that Russia has always only beaten back aggression. Well, what were then Russian troops doing at the gates of Warsaw in August 1920? They were on a topographic excursion? The truth is that for every time Russia was invaded, she has invaded ten times.

He says that it is a perfidious proxy war by the West. My advice is – don’t fall into the Western trap. Withdraw your troops to international borders and avoid this Western plot.

He also says that there was an illegal coup in Kyiv in 2014. I was there. There was no coup. President Yanukovych murdered a hundred of his compatriots and was removed from office by a democratically elected Ukrainian parliament, including by his own party, the Party of Regions.

And finally he is saying that we the West are somehow trying to persuade that Russia can never be beaten. Well, Russia did not win the Crimean War, it didn’t win the Russo-Japanese war, it didn’t win the World War I, it didn’t win the battle of Warsaw, it didn’t win in Afghanistan and it didn’t win the Cold War.

But there’s good news. After each failure there were reforms.

Such demagoguery is unworthy of a member on a permanent basis of the Security Council. But what the ambassador has achieved is to remind us why we resisted Soviet domination and what Ukraine is resisting now.

They failed to subjugate us then. They’ll fail to subjugate Ukraine and us now.

Thank you very much.

Beamr

10th Mar 2024, 12:59

Meanwhile in Russia: weatherman Evgeny Tishkovets told Vladimir Solovyov that the weather is ideal for conducting nuclear strikes against NATO countries. You will never see a weather report like this anywhere else in the world.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1766213163547070699

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1766213163547070699

Lonewolf_50

11th Mar 2024, 12:54

Meanwhile in Russia: weatherman Evgeny Tishkovets told Vladimir Solovyov that the weather is ideal for conducting nuclear strikes against NATO countries. You will never see a weather report like this anywhere else in the world. It's a beautiful day to drop a bucket of sunshine somewhere. Curtis LeMay would probably offer a wry grin.

ORAC

12th Mar 2024, 22:27

https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-president-klaus-iohannis-launch-nato-top-job-bid-mark-rutte/

Romania’s president launches bid for NATO top job against Mark Rutte

https://www.politico.eu/article/romanian-president-a-vision-for-natos-future/

Romanian president: A vision for NATO’s future

ORAC

13th Mar 2024, 06:54

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1767698778411130971?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

BREAKING:

The U.S. State Department just issued its permission for Poland to buy 821 new JASSM Extended Range (900km) cruise missiles.

After the purchase, Poland will have more than 1000 cruise missiles, the most out of all European states.

ORAC

13th Mar 2024, 07:37

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1767624859243151739?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Poland will receive a USD 2 billion preferential loan and an offer to buy 96 Apache AH-64E attack helicopters, along with radars & various missiles.

The news were delivered by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

The helicopters will cost around USD 10 bn.

Lonewolf_50

13th Mar 2024, 13:06

Just gonna say that the AH-1Z might have been a better choice ...

Mil-26Man

13th Mar 2024, 17:01

Just gonna say that the AH-1Z might have been a better choice ...

Why? Genuine question.

henra

13th Mar 2024, 19:20

The U.S. State Department just issued its permission for Poland to buy 821 new JASSM Extended Range (900km) cruise missiles.

Hello Moscow, nervous? ;-).

Lonewolf_50

13th Mar 2024, 21:18

Why? Genuine question.
1. lower parts count
2. Fewer maintenance man hours per flight hour.
3. Capability solid, armament is in the same scale as Apache:

AIM-9 Sidewinder (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-9_Sidewinder) air-to-air missiles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-to-air_missile) – one mounted on each wing tip station (two total)
AGM-114 Hellfire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-114_Hellfire) air-to-surface missiles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-to-surface_missile) – Up to 16 missiles mounted in four 4-round M299 missile launchers, two on each wing

4. Czechs have them
5. Slovaks getting them. (But that's currently in work, deal not yet final).

Not that Apache is a bad attack helicopter ... it's fine.

ORAC

13th Mar 2024, 23:02

Question is where do they come from?

No longer in production. Out of 360 built the USMC operate around 190, leaving 150, Nigeria have 12+32 on order; Bahrain has 12 and the Czech Republic has an unnumbered order - let’s call it another 12. That’s 78, leaving 72 - ignoring losses etc.

Not enough airframes to cover the initial Polish order, let alone future replacements where they’d want an active production line and other operators in Europe for spares.

Logistically the Viper wasn’t a runner.

Mil-26Man

14th Mar 2024, 08:30

1. lower parts count
2. Fewer maintenance man hours per flight hour.
3. Capability solid, armament is in the same scale as Apache:

AIM-9 Sidewinder (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-9_Sidewinder) air-to-air missiles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-to-air_missile) – one mounted on each wing tip station (two total)
AGM-114 Hellfire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-114_Hellfire) air-to-surface missiles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-to-surface_missile) – Up to 16 missiles mounted in four 4-round M299 missile launchers, two on each wing

4. Czechs have them
5. Slovaks getting them. (But that's currently in work, deal not yet final).

Not that Apache is a bad attack helicopter ... it's fine.

AH-1Z more expensive than Apache, and don't get the commonality of spares and support that Poland will want with US Army mainly (but also UK).

henra

14th Mar 2024, 09:06

AH-1Z more expensive than Apache
???
Are you sure? And please don't compare US Army Fly away Unit cost AH-64 to export prices of AH-1Z

Mil-26Man

14th Mar 2024, 09:14

???
Are you sure? And please don't compare US Army Fly away Unit cost AH-64 to export prices of AH-1Z

The only public figures we have are the DCSA export notifications for both types. I accept dividing the estimated value by the number of aircraft doesn't give an accurate figure, given the inclusion of related equipment, weapons, spares, training, support, etc, but with the same being for both the AH-64 and AH-1Z they do provide a useful comparator.

For Kuwait Kuwait – AH-64E Apache Helicopters | Defense Security Cooperation Agency (dsca.mil) (https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/kuwait-ah-64e-apache-helicopters) the AH-64E comes out at approx $60 million apiece (taking into account some remanufactured airframes).
For Nigeria Nigeria – AH-1Z Attack Helicopter Related FMS Acquisitions | Defense Security Cooperation Agency (dsca.mil) (https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/nigeria-ah-1z-attack-helicopter-related-fms-acquisitions) the AH-1Z comes out at approx $83 million apiece.

Not scientific, but it is indicative.

Vzlet

14th Mar 2024, 12:17

Question is where do they come from?
No longer in production.
Production for the domestic (i.e., U.S.) market has ended, but the Czech examples are all to be new-built. Flight International adds "Bell extends H-1 production with $455m attack helicopter order from Nigeria (https://www.flightglobal.com/helicopters/bell-extends-h-1-production-with-455m-attack-helicopter-order-from-nigeria/157360.article)".

NutLoose

14th Mar 2024, 12:21

Denmark to introduce conscription due to threat from Russia.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1768006778837471247

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1768006778837471247

NutLoose

14th Mar 2024, 12:24

Quite liked this comment.

ivan
@halfmantuano
Lol Russia just ignited the biggest NATO military rearming and mobilization in decades ! Kudos Putin.

Lonewolf_50

14th Mar 2024, 20:45

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/800x1000/1710449094_ab7db92999ae854893012573e3a1b6f1c483ecd2.jpeg
I guess these numbers will be going up.

42psi

14th Mar 2024, 20:59

Is that specific spending on Nato operations or just general defence spending?

Either way, yes it seems it will be going up.

ORAC

14th Mar 2024, 23:09

At least 50% of the US spending is against China and not NATO related - and there is no reason to include Canadian spending along with the USA, NORAD is not NATO orientated - or integrated.

If you half the US budget and change the colour of the Canadian contribution an entirely different perspective emerges.

West Coast

15th Mar 2024, 06:03

Mil-26Man

15th Mar 2024, 14:28

I suspect locating Canada with the US is simply a nod to which side of the pond it lies on.

Indeed, a closer look at the graphic which states 'Europe' and 'North America' around the circumference of the circle shows as much.

ORAC

15th Mar 2024, 15:33

https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1768652698654523636?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

⚡️EU allocates $544 million to ramp up ammunition production.

The European Commission allocated 500 million euros (around $544 million) to increase the EU's ammunition production capacity to 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025, the commission's press service announced.

The announcement follows the recent adoption of the first-ever European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) at the EU level aimed at supporting the competitiveness and readiness of the bloc's defense industry.

https://kyivindependent.com/eu-allocates-544-million-to-ramp-up-ammunition-production/

ORAC

16th Mar 2024, 23:35

According to Business Insider (Germany), German intel services are now speculating on overt Russian military action against NATO as early as 2026. If govts in Europe trust these assessments they should embark on rapid military & industrial expansion.

According to Business Insider (Germany), German intel services are now speculating on overt Russian military action against NATO as early as 2026.

If govts in Europe trust these assessments they should embark on rapid military & industrial expansion….

https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/welt/geheimdienst-szenario-kursiert-in-regierung-greift-putin-ab-2026-nato-laender-an/

https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1768948083277115829?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1190/image_a96a774d1bd38970433078c2f48c2b1d196e7226.png

ORAC

16th Mar 2024, 23:46

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/931x397/image_672f7d2d045f83c0c5e7c8492449960c13f51456.png

ORAC

17th Mar 2024, 18:58

Consequences…

Romania going out to procure maritime drones for their Black Sea fleet, as well as naval strike missiles.

Bit of a translation issue - what they refer to as “priority zero” we would refer to as “priority one”…..

https://x.com/realdaciandraco/status/1769391538352619714?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

BREAKING: Romania starts an ambitious purchase: Maritime surface drones and submarine drones. Lessons taught by Ukraine in the Black Sea, learned. Maritime drones - priority zero

https://www-defenseromania-ro.translate.goog/romania-demareaza-o-achizitie-ambitioasa-drone-maritime-de-suprafata-si-drone-submarine-lectia-predata-de-ucraina-in-marea-neagra-invatata_627411.html?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

ORAC

17th Mar 2024, 21:35

Consequences….
https://x.com/realdaciandraco/status/1769328681527222410?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

It will be 17% larger than Ramstein. Romania builds the largest base in NATO Europe, $2.5 billion project, an unsinkable carrier at the Black Sea. Two! sister base is built in the middle of a mountain plateau, that will be the control centre of S-E Europe.

Centre is the watch tower, at the sea is the aircraft carrier….

https://www.euronews.ro/articole/cea-mai-mare-baza-nato-din-europa-in-constructie-noua-baza-de-la-mihail-kogalnice

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1214x683/image_07a49a863d9fc00c6056a589f3efdbe34e056726.png

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x682/image_d64e0d8dc17c3010cbcca03f5ac92e1c0d8dea82.png

https://x.com/realdaciandraco/status/1769458885796991251?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

English translated article.

https://www-euronews-ro.translate.goog/articole/cea-mai-mare-baza-nato-din-europa-in-constructie-noua-baza-de-la-mihail-kogalnice?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

ORAC

17th Mar 2024, 22:24

Consequences….. works just as well against Russia…

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1769274485541355821?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Pentagon Plans Sea Drone Fleet for Possible China War

The Pentagon is embarking on a $1 billion program to build an armada of remote-controlled killer sea drones.

The effort is the first phase of the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD) Replicator Initiative to build thousands of autonomous war-ready vehicles as tools to "deter conflict and, if deterrence fails, to fight and win the war," Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said last month.

The announcement comes amid concerns in Washington, D.C., over a potential future attack against Taiwan by China, which the DoD considers a "pacing challenge."

The U.S. is the self-ruled island's main arms supplier, but it maintains a longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity" to keep China guessing on whether Washington would commit American forces to Taiwan's defense.

Hicks said Monday that the department will ask lawmakers to allocate $500 million for Replicator this fiscal year, possibly as a reprogramming request, and another half billion dollars in the budget the DoD has submitted for fiscal year 2025, U.S. Naval Institute News reported.

In addition to the sea-skimming drones, the DoD's Defense Innovation Unit is working on software to enable swarms of surface and airborne drones to seek out targets on their own, with the decision to attack resting with human coordinators…..

T28B

17th Mar 2024, 23:19

If the Americans are going to do that, won't the Chinese do the same?
Asking for a friend.

jolihokistix

18th Mar 2024, 00:38

"Replicator". Hmmm...isn't the language growing a little too predictably, terrifyingly Terminator robotic futuristic?

DogTailRed2

18th Mar 2024, 03:18

Consequences….

It will be 17% larger than Ramstein. Romania builds the largest base in NATO Europe, $2.5 billion project, an unsinkable carrier at the Black Sea. Two! sister base is built in the middle of a mountain plateau, that will be the control centre of S-E Europe.

Centre is the watch tower, at the sea is the aircraft carrier….

https://www.euronews.ro/articole/cea-mai-mare-baza-nato-din-europa-in-constructie-noua-baza-de-la-mihail-kogalnice

English translated article.

https://www-euronews-ro.translate.goog/articole/cea-mai-mare-baza-nato-din-europa-in-constructie-noua-baza-de-la-mihail-kogalnice?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true
I find it fascinating comparing modern numbers against WW2 numbers. UK 6 Typhoons? That would have been two flights in WW2. I guess we will never again see the large aerial armadas we used to.

Ninthace

18th Mar 2024, 08:45

I find it fascinating comparing modern numbers against WW2 numbers. UK 6 Typhoons? That would have been two flights in WW2. I guess we will never again see the large aerial armadas we used to.
A bit like land warfare, we don’t form squares or fire volleys at serried ranks any more either.

jolihokistix

18th Mar 2024, 08:53

Video Mixdown

18th Mar 2024, 09:34

I find it fascinating comparing modern numbers against WW2 numbers. UK 6 Typhoons? That would have been two flights in WW2. I guess we will never again see the large aerial armadas we used to.
WWII: Hundreds of bombers, thousands of bombs, nearly all missing the target.
Now: One Typhoon/F-35/UAV, one bomb, target destroyed.

hunterboy

18th Mar 2024, 09:41

Won’t we run out of bombs and Typhoons before we run out of targets though?

Video Mixdown

18th Mar 2024, 09:48

Won’t we run out of bombs and Typhoons before we run out of targets though?
The whole of NATO? Unlikely.

DogTailRed2

18th Mar 2024, 16:45

A bit like land warfare, we don’t form squares or fire volleys at serried ranks any more either.
Not really a fair comparison. Ukraine and Russia are still fighting WW1 tactics. Trench warfare and all that.

DogTailRed2

18th Mar 2024, 16:47

Won’t we run out of bombs and Typhoons before we run out of targets though?
Which is kind of why I made the original comment. While 1000's of aircraft is no longer a reality perhaps 6 is also a bit low.

pax britanica

18th Mar 2024, 17:53

Russia of late has tended to focus on rebuilding the Soviet Union rather than expanding/invading non traditional Soviet countries . That probably works quite well with some elements of Russian society, attacking NATO might be seen very differently unless the Orange one wins the election and abandons NATO which might be too tempting for Moscow

ORAC

19th Mar 2024, 16:19

Consequences….

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1770089430017089685?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in Armenia for the first time in his position, which he holds for the tenth year

Stoltenberg held a meeting with Prime Minister Pashinyan, where issues of strengthening Armenia-NATO cooperation were discussed.

"We're interested in deepening our cooperation with #NATO, and I hope that the individually-tailored program for #Armenia will be accepted as soon as possible," said Pashinyan.

Beamr

19th Mar 2024, 17:15

Not really a fair comparison. Ukraine and Russia are still fighting WW1 tactics. Trench warfare and all that.
Trenches and mud yes, but mobility, drones, IR spectrums, EW, eyes in the sky etc are really making things very different. You need to shoot and scoot, be very mobile. In WW1 you were safe 5km behind the lines. Now you aren't safe 500km behind the lines. That doesn't comfort mobiks without proper training or gear and without any means to survive. In essence all they can do is turn into meat waves with lots of losses.

A sniper serving for Ukraine said that you can shoot twice but then you'll have to change positions or you'll start attracting FPV's, mortar fire or artillery fire.

Lonewolf_50

19th Mar 2024, 19:34

A sniper serving for Ukraine said that you can shoot twice but then you'll have to change positions or you'll start attracting FPV's, mortar fire or artillery fire. Way back in the 1970's while getting some squad and platoon level training from infantry vets in a place called Quantico, we were advised that a sniper usually planned multiple positions and after one shot typically moved ... this was an overview, though.
Since I wasn't trained as a sniper I am not sure how that art has progressed. Sounds like some of the fundamentals are still the same. .
(Gunny Hathcock/Carlos was pretty good at it. His biography is a good read).

Lonewolf_50

21st Mar 2024, 04:35

Interesting map/figure I saw this evening.
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x2000/1710995750_192f5b64dbeee0f135e287d13cb1e2ea096423ca.jpeg
Source = https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GI0chZCWcAAjX_S?format=jpg&name=large

The AGM-158 JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile)
is a low detection standoff (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standoff_missile) air-launched cruise missile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-launched_cruise_missile) developed by Lockheed Martin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin) for the United States Armed Forces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces). It is a large, stealthy long-range weapon with a 1,000-pound (450 kg) armor piercing warhead. It completed testing and entered service with the U.S. Air Force in 2009, and has entered foreign service in Australia, Finland, and Poland as of 2014.
An extended range version of the missile, the AGM-158B JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range), entered service in 2014 as well as an anti-ship derivative, the AGM-158C LRASM (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158C_LRASM) (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile), in 2018. By September 2016, Lockheed Martin had delivered 2,000 total JASSMs comprising both variants to the USAF.

Lonewolf_50

27th Mar 2024, 17:37

OH, the fun we have. Back to the 70's and 80's, playing tag at high altitude, the Cold War follies have been resurrected.US B-1B bombers face off with Russian MiG-31 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-b-1b-bombers-face-off-with-russian-mig-31-over-barents-sea/ar-BB1kzTP3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=93bdbca24fcc44f98e92e31f163bc9e7&ei=2) over Barents SeaSuch deterring flights by the Russians are not uncommon. A notable instance happened in mid-March, triggered by Sweden's move to join NATO. The Russian Federation dispatched a Tu-22M3 bomber alongside MiG-31 fighters, equipped with Kinzhal missiles, over the Baltic Sea. On Sunday, March 24, a similar event unfolded. The deployment of the Russian MiG-31 was apparently in response to the presence of two American B-1B bombers near Russian airspace over the Barents Sea, after having traversed Norwegian airspace.

According to The Barents Observer, the US aircraft never entered Russian airspace. The dispatched MiG-31 escorted the bombers away from Russia. Accompanying the B-1B bombers over the Barents Sea were three KC-135 Stratotanker aerial tankers, which were not subjected to interception. This incident coincided with the NATO Nordic Response 2024 exercises.

DaveReidUK

28th Mar 2024, 14:20

Lonewolf_50

28th Mar 2024, 19:16

Is that because of their superb ice-hockey coverage, Dave?

Zombywoof

28th Mar 2024, 21:05

As soon as I saw "ice-hockey", I knew it was an American. It's "hockey", period. :p

NutLoose

28th Mar 2024, 21:55

Meanwhile back in the Red Sea.

https://twitter.com/warintel4u/status/1773466049402323444

https://twitter.com/warintel4u/status/1773466049402323444

Ninthace

28th Mar 2024, 22:48

What! The whole fleet?

Winemaker

29th Mar 2024, 00:49

What! The whole fleet?
Here are some great videos from Drachinifel, who produces really interesting videos about ships. It's about the Russian Pacific 2nd Squadron voyage to Japan and its defeat in the battle of Tsushima. Sort of seems relevant to Moscow's current adventure in the Ukraine. Parts 1 and 2 below. Worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXpj6nK5ylo

DogTailRed2

29th Mar 2024, 02:33

What! The whole fleet?
No, just what's left.

ORAC

30th Mar 2024, 07:57

https://tvpworld.com/76702098/polish-president-signs-law-suspending-the-treaty-on-conventional-armed-forces-in-europe

Polish president signs law suspending the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe

T28B

30th Mar 2024, 16:31

What! The whole fleet?
That picture is misleading. As I read down through the TwitterX thread, it appears that two ships from the Pacific Fleet are in the Red Sea.
For those interested in what ORAC posted: Polish President Andrzej Duda signed a law regarding the suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). The suspension, announced by NATO countries last November, came as a response to Russia’s cessation of its treaty recognition.
The President's Chancellery reminded that the CFE Treaty’s goal was the reduction of conventional offensive armaments to then maintain them at agreed levels. This encompasses commitments across five categories of conventional armed forces: battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft, and attack helicopters. “The suspension of the Treaty means that the Republic of Poland, like other states that decide to do so, while formally remaining a party to this agreement, will not be obliged to fulfill its provisions,” the Chancellery stated.

Lonewolf_50

4th Apr 2024, 16:17

This article was translated from German.
Copyright 2024 DW.COM, Deutsche Welle. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
NATO was created to act as a bulwark against the Soviet Union and the West German army trained for the defense against attacks from the east. Three decades later, the threat is once again from Moscow.It was early 1996 when German soldiers in combat gear stepped onto the territory of another European country for the first time since the Second World War. The Germans did not come to Bosnia-Herzegovina as UN peacekeepers, or Blue Helmets, but as part of the NATO-led Implementation Force (IFOR).

In 1992, the former Yugoslavian republic had been plunged into the bloodiest war on European soil since 1945 by the country's ethnic Serb minority, with the support of the troops of the Serbian autocrat Slobodan Milosevic. In December 1995, the warring parties, the neighboring countries and the heads of state and government of the United States, Britain, France, and Germany signed the Dayton Peace Agreement.

NATO formed IFOR, which was succeeded by the Stabilization Force (SFOR), to maintain the ceasefire and stabilize peace in the small southeastern European state.

German Bundeswehr soldiers not prepared

Germany participated but the Bundeswehr was only partially prepared for the mission in the mountainous country. The soldiers of the German army had not been trained for "out of area" operations. At times, they had to widen roads because the heavy military equipment was unable to pass through.

During the Cold War, the Bundeswehr of the German Federal Republic (West Germany), which joined NATO in 1955, had primarily been responsible for defending against a possible attack by the Warsaw Pact countries, which were in the Soviet zone of influence and included the socialist German Democratic Republic (East Germany).

There were half a million Soviet soldiers stationed in East Germany. And the GDR's National People's Army (NVA) boasted over 150,000 additional soldiers.

Every year, scenarios of an attack were enacted in NATO maneuvers and exercises that took place on flat land in northern Germany, primarily with tanks.

The idea was that Leopard main battle tanks and Bundeswehr units would defend against such an attack from the east until unrestricted air sovereignty was established with the help of NATO's largest member, the US.

German army has halved in size

From 1958 to 1972, the West German army grew in strength from 249,000 to 493,000 troops.

Until the fall of the Berlin Wall, the number of troops hovered around 480,000. When the Bundeswehr integrated the National People's Army, with the primary aim of phasing out its structures, the number increased again briefly.

Some 20 years later, there were only about 200,000 soldiers left in the Bundeswehr. By 2023, it only had 181,000 members, according to the German Ministry of Defense.

Only a small proportion of these soldiers are trained to be deployed for combat as part of NATO missions.

Afghanistan deployments

The Bundeswehr's role in NATO changed again after the 9/11 attacks on the US in 2001 prompted the US to invoke the alliance's common defense clause and Germany met its treaty obligations. The German army was part of the US-led coalition that went on to invade Afghanistan and oust the Taliban.

For a long time, the Bundeswehr concentrated on training up units that could be transported quickly, even to Afghanistan. Until the Zeitenwende, or "turning point," a term coined by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a speech to the German parliament just days after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,

many in the military had not been preparing for such a surface land attack in Europe, three decades after the end of the Cold War.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has since said that the Bundeswehr must become "war ready." Some analysts predict that Russia, which has switched to a war economy, could launch an attack on NATO territory in fewer than five years.

After three decades of "out of area" operations, the Bundeswehr would currently only have enough ammunition to defend itself against such an attack for a few days.

Therefore, the idea now is to upgrade NATO to such an extent that it can be a strong deterrent to Russia attacking NATO territory. Just as it was during the four decades of the Cold War.
Background music is MLF Lullaby.

ORAC

4th Apr 2024, 17:36

Bit does it mean they can place troops in Ukraine as part of a NSTO mission rather than a national mission - with whatever protective measures that might permit?
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1775901774722764856?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

NATO countries decided to create an alliance mission in Ukraine

This was stated by the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry. According to him, the creation of the mission does not mean direct entry into the conflict.

"But it does mean that we will now be able to use #NATO's coordination, training, planning capabilities to support #Ukraine in a more coordinated way."

He explained, in particular, that more Ukrainian military personnel would be trained in Poland.

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1775909409199149318?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Britain, France and Northern European countries are preparing to send troops to Ukraine, - US State Department consultant Edward Luttwak said in a column for the UnHerd portal

In his opinion, NATO countries will soon have to send troops to Ukraine anyway, otherwise the alliance will be forced to accept a "catastrophic defeat."

https://unherd.com/2024/04/its-time-to-send-nato-troops-to-ukraine/

https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1775884362573295715?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

ORAC

6th Apr 2024, 14:38

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1776286294005436735?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Turkey suspends its adherence to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)

There will no longer be any limits on the number of soldiers and where they can be stationed….

NutLoose

6th Apr 2024, 21:00

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1776494046841868347

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1776494046841868347

Lonewolf_50

8th Apr 2024, 16:57

REFORGER (or REFORPOL) may have a few snags in it. The frigates to escort reinforcing forces are three years late ... and counting.
Constellation Frigate Delivery Delayed 3 Years, Says Navy - USNI News (https://news.usni.org/2024/04/02/constellation-frigate-delivery-delayed-3-years-says-navy)

DogTailRed2

8th Apr 2024, 17:25

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1776494046841868347
Might want to check that beautiful wall ornament they gifted just in case.

ORAC

9th Apr 2024, 14:11

https://kyivindependent.com/romania-led-nato-naval-exercise-begins-in-black-sea/

Romania-led NATO naval exercise begins in Black Sea

A multi-national NATO naval exercise in the Black Sea and Danube River delta, consisting of contributing maritime forces from 12 different alliance members and other partners, began on April 8, Romanian media reported.

The exercise, named Sea Shield 24 (https://www.romania-insider.com/sea-shield-military-drills-romania-black-sea-2024), is the second time the naval drill has been held, with the first occurring in 2015. The Black Sea has been a crucial theater of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, and the Danube River (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-ukraine-plans-to-bypass-poland-border-issues-by-adding-new-danube-export-route/) has emerged as an important alternative transit route in response to the Russian naval presence in the sea.

Hundreds of mines have been spread throughout the Black Sea since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Several civilian ships and navy ships belonging to countries not party to the war have struck sea mines (https://kyivindependent.com/media-oil-tanker-hits-mine-in-black-sea/) since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

According to a press release (https://www.navy.ro/comunicat.php?id=801) by the Romanian navy, the exercise will involve more than 2,000 soldiers, 27 ships, 17 planes, and other military-technical equipment.

It will be "the most complex event conducted by the Romanian Naval Forces," the press release said.

Among the participants will be Romania, the U.S., the U.K., Bulgaria, France, Turkey, and Poland, as well as non-NATO members Georgia and Moldova.

The goal of the exercise is to combat "illegal sea and river operations, maritime and river control, search and rescue at sea, assisting a vessel in distress, and securing critical infrastructure."

It will extend until April 21.

NATO members Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria announced in January 2024 that they had signed a memorandum of understanding on a joint mine-clearing task force (https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-romania-bulgaria-sign-deal-on-black-sea-mine-clearance/) in the Black Sea, but it was not clear when it would begin.

ORAC

9th Apr 2024, 14:54

https://x.com/jeff21461/status/1777667080646537606?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Germany plans a massive expansion of its artillery forces from the current 4 to 13 battalions. This is paired with the doubling of the country's artillery park. From 120 SPG and 40 MLRS to 300 SPG and 80 MLRS.

Contracts for both a wheeled SPG and wheeled MLRS system are expected to be awarded before the end of the year.

https://t.co/vtLNnOlPHW

ORAC

9th Apr 2024, 15:21

https://x.com/the_lookout_n/status/1777630908939456632?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Norway, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK has signed a joint declaration on protecting critical underwater North Sea energy and communications infrastructure.

This initiative will complement work done under the NATO umbrella.

https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/samarbeid-for-a-sikre-kritisk-undersjoisk-infrastruktur/id3033122/

https://www.politico.eu/article/6-european-countries-sign-pact-protect-critical-energy-infrastructure-north-sea-from-russia/

6 countries move to protect the North Sea from Russians

Potential foreign sabotage and attacks on critical infrastructure set off alarms.

NutLoose

9th Apr 2024, 17:15

The flooding n Russia has shut down one of their missile tracking stations, meaning they are having problems tracking ICBM’s

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1777744888844386375

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1777744888844386375

NutLoose

9th Apr 2024, 18:51

Russia has increased domestic production of drones from a few dozen to more than 200 per month - Welt media. By 2030, production of unmanned aerial vehicles in Russia should increase to 32,000 units per year, Deputy prime minister Andrey Belousov recently said. More than 11,000 are expected to be produced this year. Despite sanctions, Russia was able to steadily expand its production of rockets and cruise missiles, some of which require 40 to 50 Western components, thanks to gray imports. According to estimates by Western experts and the Ukrainian military, up to 130 missiles and cruise missiles with a range of at least 350 kilometers are produced every month as well as about 100 missiles with a shorter range. According to the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Russia produced around two million 152 mm and 122 mm shells last year, while the Estonian Ministry of Defense says in a report that there were 3.5 million. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the production of around 2.1 million shells is planned for the current year. Russia has lost almost 2,900 tanks, 5,500 armored personnel carriers, and similar vehicles since the invasion of Ukraine began. It now uses tanks that are partly museum-worthy, such as the T-62 and T-55, in poorly modernized versions. Experts say that with such a loss rate, Russia's reserves will last for 2-3 years.

How are we doing?

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1777405114061345033

DogTailRed2

9th Apr 2024, 19:18

"NATO should prepare for war"
Latest Breaking UK and World News & Opinion | LBC (https://www.lbc.co.uk/)
https://images.lbc.co.uk/images/644643?width=320&crop=16_9&format=webp&signature=1bHllzVJTsZayLRHzUhaZoSCAXs=

Ninthace

9th Apr 2024, 20:00

I thought NATO was always prepared for war, that’s their business. How prepared the contributing nations are, that’s the question.

DogTailRed2

10th Apr 2024, 06:10

I thought NATO was always prepared for war, that’s their business. How prepared the contributing nations are, that’s the question.
Isn't that a contradiction? If NATO countries are not prepared then NATO is not prepared.

jolihokistix

10th Apr 2024, 07:18

Norway, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK has signed a joint declaration on protecting critical underwater North Sea energy and communications infrastructure.
6 countries move to protect the North Sea from Russians
Potential foreign sabotage and attacks on critical infrastructure set off alarms.

Surely they need to take into account Chinese ships obligingly 'accidentally' dragging their anchors again. China has a track record in this area too.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2024, 07:31

Isn't that a contradiction? If NATO countries are not prepared then NATO is not prepared.
I have a relative in the UK military who works in Belgium, knowing a little of what he does, most of it being classified, it is not a contradiction.

ORAC

14th Apr 2024, 09:00

https://x.com/rikefranke/status/1779144754258661593?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
New survey from Austria

“If Austria were to be attacked militarily, should other EU member states support Austria militarily?”
72,28% say yes.

“Should Austria, in the case of an armed attack on an EU member state, support this state with armed troops?”
13,58% say yes.

https://x.com/rikefranke/status/1779231546257408255?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
If you find this whole topic of neutrality in the EU fascinating (as I do):
We published several super interesting essays on the neutral EU countries a while back. The Austria essay is particularly 🔥

https://ecfr.eu/publication/ambiguous-alliance-neutrality-opt-outs-and-european-defence/

Ninthace

14th Apr 2024, 12:47

But it would not be put to the vote would it?

West Coast

14th Apr 2024, 15:45

New survey from Austria

“If Austria were to be attacked militarily, should other EU member states support Austria militarily?”
72,28% say yes.

“Should Austria, in the case of an armed attack on an EU member state, support this state with armed troops?”
13,58% say yes.

If you find this whole topic of neutrality in the EU fascinating (as I do):
We published several super interesting essays on the neutral EU countries a while back. The Austria essay is particularly 🔥

https://ecfr.eu/publication/ambiguous-alliance-neutrality-opt-outs-and-european-defence/

Interesting Orac. The free rider problem at its best.

Lonewolf_50

15th Apr 2024, 13:36

The Alpine Irish.

ORAC

29th Apr 2024, 16:56

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1784664319403114506?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Poland just signed a deal with South Korea to buy another 72 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers for USD 1.6 billion.

They will come on top of the 218 Chunmoos bought in 2022.

The deal includes CTM-290 long-range guided missiles and technology transfer for production in Poland.

ORAC

30th Apr 2024, 21:58

ORAC

1st May 2024, 16:01

Former Pentagon employee sentenced to 21 years in prison for attempting to pass information to Russia

Former National Security Agency employee Jared Sebastian Dalk was found guilty and sentenced to 21 years in prison for attempted espionage, USA Today reports.

The 32-year-old information systems security designer was found guilty of attempting to pass classified defense information to a Russian agent whose role was played by an FBI agent.

Dalk asked for $85,000 for the information transfer because he owed debts on a loan, a payment the former NSA employee asked for in cryptocurrency.

Lonewolf_50

1st May 2024, 16:05

Poland has applied for NATO nuclear weapons deployment
#Poland has made an official request for the deployment of NATO nuclear weapons, Deputy National Defense Minister Pawel Zalewski said on Polish TV.
He specified that it is an application for participation in the Nuclear sharing program.
Zalewski specified that the decision on the use of nuclear weapons, in case of their deployment in Poland, will be made by the Americans.
That strikes me as a bad idea. You get targeted for that reason, but you can't release, nor threaten to release, your "deterrent" capability.
You have to ask Uncle Sam. At the ranges in question, I don't think the time will be available.
Former Pentagon employee sentenced to 21 years in prison for attempting to pass information to Russia
Former National Security Agency employee Jared Sebastian Dalk was found guilty and sentenced to 21 years in prison for attempted espionage, USA Today reports.
The 32-year-old information systems security designer was found guilty of attempting to pass classified defense information to a Russian agent whose role was played by an FBI agent.
Dalk asked for $85,000 for the information transfer because he owed debts on a loan, a payment the former NSA employee asked for in cryptocurrency. Crpyto currency: the currency of choice for criminals. (Glad someone caught him).

henra

1st May 2024, 16:15

That strikes me as a bad idea. You get targeted for that reason, but you can't release, nor threaten to release, your "deterrent" capability.
You have to ask Uncle Sam. At the ranges in question, I don't think the time will be available.

On the other hand on these airfields hundreds of somezimes specialised US soldiers are hanging around. Uncle Sam might be a tad pi**ed off if those guys get vaporised. If Vlad opens up on such a site he can't be sure he won't be answered in kind. A nuke on Warsaw or Krakow on the other hand has got reasonable chances of remaining unanswered. I do understand their rational.

Lonewolf_50

1st May 2024, 16:36

OK, I see your point, and I guess that we are truly living in the 1970's again.
I'll buy a Ford Pinto.

MAINJAFAD

2nd May 2024, 07:36

Sky News report about the state of UK Air Defences. Nice to see some of the Kit I've worked on from the past get a mention. Never expected to see the LCP and Bloodhound that I was involved in the restoration of would be on National TV.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-increasingly-vulnerable-to-threat-of-missile-and-drone-attacks-after-decades-of-cuts-experts-warn-13127263

henra

2nd May 2024, 07:56

OK, I see your point, and I guess that we are truly living in the 1970's again.

Rather worse. In the 70s it was a whole committee who would have had to go 'crazy Ivan'. Now it's just one guy nearing his personal end.

Woodsy2417

2nd May 2024, 08:16

No, in the 1970s we had a bigger Army, Navy and Royal Air Force and British forces Germany.

Ninthace

2nd May 2024, 08:24

No, in the 1970s we had a bigger Army, Navy and Royal Air Force and British forces Germany.
The Russians were much closer in those days too and perhaps more competent militarily

Lonewolf_50

2nd May 2024, 13:20

OK, I see your point, and I guess that we are truly living in the 1970's again.
I'll buy a Ford Pinto. I guess we are not in the 1970's, since Germany now has Poland as a buffer state. And my leisure suit doesn't fit anymore anyway. :p

rigpiggy

2nd May 2024, 15:09

I may have said it earlier, get rid of dual citizenship. Have one language for all government services. Bring back conscription of 18 months for all(male/female) with reserve status from 18-30 with battle kit at home like Switzerland.

Ninthace

2nd May 2024, 15:24

No more Welsh forms? Seems harsh!

Gargleblaster

2nd May 2024, 15:30

Mil-26Man

3rd May 2024, 09:09

Lucifer Morningstar

3rd May 2024, 13:01

Speaking as someone with dual-citizenship, what has dual-citizenship got to do with any of this?

I may be wrong but I believe that under conscription, dual citizens are exempt as they have a right not to be drafted for a nation to which they not 100% belong.
As a dual citizen, I fully support this. 😉

Mil-26Man

3rd May 2024, 13:10

I may be wrong but I believe that under conscription, dual citizens are exempt as they have a right not to be drafted for a nation to which they not 100% belong.
As a dual citizen, I fully support this. 😉

Dual citizens are usually liable for national service in any country in which they are a national that has national service. If the UK had national service, dual citizens could be made as liable as the rest of the population - it would be a decision for the government.

601

3rd May 2024, 13:11

As a dual citizen, I fully support this.
Dose the barbedwire ever hurt?

ORAC

3rd May 2024, 13:16

I may be wrong but I believe that under conscription, dual citizens are exempt as they have a right not to be drafted for a nation to which they not 100% belong.
Seeing as we don’t have any conscription legislation it cannot contain any exemptions.

IIRC there are numerous examples of dual UK/French citizens who in years past have had conscription papers served upon them, in fact when we did have conscription we had a bilateral agreement so having served in one exempted a dual citizen from having to serve in the other.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1964-12-14/debates/1c6b044e-3532-4990-ba6d-3cdec278cf77/Anglo-FrenchMilitaryServiceAgreement

I can also recall a diplomatic incident, after the opening of the Channel tunnel, when a dual citizen was arrested by the French police in the part of the yard in Folkestone under their jurisdiction and put on the train to Paris to be conscripted. It took the Foreign office to get them to send him back.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/france-frees-british-draftdodger-1255445.html

Lucifer Morningstar

4th May 2024, 10:49

Dose the barbedwire ever hurt?

I do not understand this comment.

Did you see the wink at the end of my ‘I support this’ remark? This is used to signify that the comment is not to be taken seriously.

OvertHawk

4th May 2024, 12:19

I do not understand this comment.

Did you see the wink at the end of my ‘I support this’ remark? This is used to signify that the comment is not to be taken seriously.

I think he's suggesting that you're "sitting on the fence"! ;)

ORAC

6th May 2024, 04:45

Another walking the walk while we just talk….

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/05/03/denmark-increases-defense-spending-in-view-of-russian-long-term-war/

Denmark increases defense spending in view of Russian long-term war

MILAN — Denmark will raise its defense spending by an additional $5.1 billion over the next four years in order to speed up investments in military capabilities, as the government has warned that Russia is readying for a long-term war.

With the war in Ukraine reaching its 800th day, and the battle showing little sign of resolution in the foreseeable future, European countries are doubling down on efforts to inject more funds into their military posture.

The Danish government (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/04/04/denmark-fires-chief-of-defense-runs-into-more-naval-issues/) announced this week that it would again increase the country’s defense expenditure from 2024-2028. Last year, the Scandinavian country had already committed to investing $21 billion in defense over the next decade.

Denmark’s defense spending for 2023 was $8.1 billion, a 39% increase over the previous year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute…..

The additional funds will go to reinforcing the Army’s 1st heavy brigade, which is Denmark’s fore package assigned to the NATO Response Force, acquiring more land-based air defense systems and bolstering the Navy’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

The unit in question will have to be deployable on short notice, based on NATO standards, and it receive new tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Denmark borders the Baltic and North seas along its 8,750 kilometers of shoreline, which could be vulnerable in the event of NATO-Russia tensions in the region.

Following Copenhagen’s submarine divestiture in 2004, lawmakers have been going back and forth about the possibility of acquiring and even leasing new undersea platforms.

Not Long Here

6th May 2024, 05:47

Another walking the walk while we just talk….

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/05/03/denmark-increases-defense-spending-in-view-of-russian-long-term-war/

Denmark borders the Baltic and North seas along its 8,750 kilometers of shoreline, which could be vulnerable in the event of NATO-Russia tensions in the region.
.

8750 km sounds a wee bit excessive!

jolihokistix

6th May 2024, 06:39

Scotland's shoreline is 18,672 km which sounds a wee bit more excessive.

Herod

6th May 2024, 06:43

They measure all the little inlets and coves, so it's not just a circle around the country

ORAC

6th May 2024, 07:10

Blame Slartibartfast….

Asturias56

6th May 2024, 07:25

They measure all the little inlets and coves, so it's not just a circle around the country

It's fractal maths - the closer you look at any coastline the longer the coast line gets as you count more and more of the smaller bays and inlets

vne165

6th May 2024, 07:33

He won an award you know....

Ninthace

6th May 2024, 13:27

I particularly liked his crinkly edges!

Lonewolf_50

6th May 2024, 20:19

And then we have the occasional own goal...A U.S. soldier was detained in Russia on Thursday, according to a U.S. official.

The soldier, a staff sergeant, had been stationed in Korea and traveled to Russia on his own, the official told ABC News on Monday. He is being held on charges of stealing, an accusation the U.S. is looking into, according to the official. My question for his company commander: you signed off his leave papers and you knew he was traveling to Russia? What could possibly go wrong?
And then this genius gets charged with shoplifting. *facepalm*

West Coast

7th May 2024, 00:36

And then we have the occasional own goal... My question for his company commander: you signed off his leave papers and you knew he was traveling to Russia? What could possibly go wrong?
And then this genius gets charged with shoplifting. *facepalm*

A honeytrap me thinks.

jolihokistix

7th May 2024, 02:09

There's a strange innocuous American habit of helping yourself to towels and things from hotels, as if you've paid so much for the room that you are entitled to take extra souvenirs. And that American student Otto Warmbier in North Korea was arrested for taking a poster from a wall. When in Rome Moscow.....

Actually, back to this thread, there is no "NATO vs Russia", thank goodness, but even as a theory, posting the idea like this carries the danger of gradually bringing the idea alive in ordinary people's minds.
IMHO, of course.

Gargleblaster

7th May 2024, 08:08

The winters are bloody awful, it would have been nice if Slartibartfast had placed it around 20 degrees further south in version 2. (Sorry for off topic and to people who have no idea what we're talking about).

Xhorst

7th May 2024, 08:35

Well, in Earth Mk II they did give him Africa to do. He did it with fjords for a lovely baroque feel, which was apparently "not equatorial enough"...

Ninthace

7th May 2024, 18:41

There is no pleasing some people!:ugh:

Video Mixdown

7th May 2024, 18:54

Well, in Earth Mk II they did give him Africa to do. He did it with fjords for a lovely baroque feel, which was apparently "not equatorial enough"...
That's the trouble with working for hyperintelligent pandimensional beings. Never satisfied.

ORAC

11th May 2024, 15:46

https://x.com/olganyc1211/status/1789192504065007862?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

“Russia has no moral right to abandon its compatriots living in the Baltic countries.” Russian Foreign Ministry

First Russia sends Russians into Western countries then they claim they need to “protect” them. The basis for terrorist Russia’s invasions and aggressions. Not to mention setting off chaotic protests and sabotage operations.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/770x683/image_b7622d896fa91650e545630dfb21d766a37b4438.png

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/711x683/image_fc534fef1987b588a6956e7e0b4d2b498802c09f.png

Asturias56

12th May 2024, 14:25

tho TBH there are a lot of Russians who are long term residents of the Baltic states. Trouble is this sort of announcement leads to people being forced to make a decision or get pushed out as potential 5th Columnists

Dr Jekyll

12th May 2024, 18:05

The additional funds will go to reinforcing the Army’s 1st heavy brigade, which is Denmark’s fore package assigned to the NATO Response Force, acquiring more land-based air defense systems and bolstering the Navy’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

The unit in question will have to be deployable on short notice, based on NATO standards, and it receive new tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
.
Sounds reasonable, deploying a light brigade to Ukraine tends not to end well.

ORAC

13th May 2024, 14:33

Video.https://x.com/alfaiomi/status/1790021643420512652?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russia is exploiting the refugee crisis by relocating individuals from Syria, Iraq, and Africa to the borders of Belarus and Poland.

Credible sources indicate that Russia is intentionally inciting these refugees to engage in violent actions, such as throwing stones and clashing with Polish border guards, in an effort to stir public opinion and create disturbances.

This strategy is part of a hybrid warfare tactic against Poland, orchestrated with the help of Belarus's Lukashenka.

Recently, over 140 illegal migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East attempted to forcefully cross from Belarus into Poland, exhibiting aggressive behavior and assaulting Polish forces with branches and stones.

In the past three days alone, 824 migrants have tried to illegally enter Poland from Belarus, with Belarusian border guards failing to intervene.

ORAC

15th May 2024, 05:12

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-conscription-boris-pistorius-military-service-ukraine-war-bundeswehr/

Serving the Vaterland: Germany debates reviving conscription

safetypee

16th May 2024, 09:01

Trump proofing Europe

"Though a second Trump presidency is not a foregone conclusion, Nato members are gearing up to Trump-proof the organisation and reviewing their defence strategies."

https://theconversation.com/trump-proofing-nato-why-europes-current-nuclear-deterrents-may-not-be-enough-to-face-biggest-threats-since-wwii-228334

and

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-recap-russia-wont-attack-nato-countries-says-putin-believe-it-or-not-226844

West Coast

16th May 2024, 14:44

Trump proof = being responsible for one’s own security.

Ninthace

16th May 2024, 14:48

The corollary of that is Europe telling Trump where to put it and the loss of US influence in Europe.

Lonewolf_50

16th May 2024, 16:09

The corollary of that is Europe telling Trump where to put it and the loss of US influence in Europe. And then come crying, pissing and moaning, cap in hand like the grasshopper to the ants, since you security leaches can't be bothered to invest in your collective security posture. Hiding your heads in the sand is just too easy and cheaper. W warned you Obama warned you, and Trump Warned you and you kept your heads in the sand.
And as a result, Putin found you bent over and rammed it in good. You are just lucky that his military leadership made enough mistakes to fail.

For safetypee: while what they call Trump proofing is a good idea - better late than never - why didn't they call it W proofing, Obama proofing?
Those two also called Europe out for their negligence.
Here's the funny bit: if the increase in spending and readiness is made, you then remove the root cause of Trump calling Europe out.
His core message (while in office) was "pay your share" and that was responded to negatively by Europe.
What was that old oil filter ad? (Fram oil filters). Pay me now or pay me later.
Let that sink in.
His recent remarks, with him not in office, was trolling. (1)
You all bit. He lives rent free in your heads.
I suppose the result is good enough. (Again, as often before, I don't think he'll win in November, but if Trumpaphobia will get the necessary assets allocated on your side of the pond, GOOD!)
{1} = To be fair, there is a portion of his base that would be interested in leaving NATO, but they are still a minority.

henra

16th May 2024, 16:21

The corollary of that is Europe telling Trump where to put it and the loss of US influence in Europe.
Plus it will likely kick off a massive nuclear uparming. Europe alone needs to urgently increase its arsenal to at least 1000 to 1500 nuclear warheads with a potentially even higher final target. It should be enough that not a single Russian would survive. That should be priority #1. Conventionally we currently see that Russia fails to conquer a 40Mio people Country. We need to stockpile enough ammo but otherwise should be mostly OK. Except for Air Defence including massive BMD to counter also the nuclear numeric advantage. On the nuclear side of things Russia is still a massive force to reckon with. This needs addressing.

Ninthace

16th May 2024, 16:50

Come off it Lonewolf 50, you know the US likes to be needed and tell other folk what to do. The more other nations get to be able to do it alone, the less the hold you have in them.

Lonewolf_50

16th May 2024, 17:36

What you believe is for you to believe, which does not equal fact.
There is no single American political view. There are a variety of viewpoints, to include the "no, we are not the world's policemen" bloc, who were extremely vocal after the Wall came down (Required reading for you, the case of Army Specialist Michael New). A similar strain after WW I, with the successful torpedo of Wilson's grand designs/League of Nations/etc was called "isolationist" and yet American involvement (particularly in commerce) all over the globe (particularly in Asia) increased after WW I. (Much to the chagrin of some of our neighbors in the Carribean region).
You are old enough to know of, or at least be aware of, the successful four-year lobby for the US to stay out of Bosnia since it was a European security problem. (Circa 1991-1995).
Other required reading for you: Walter Russel Meade, Special Providence.
You have claimed some affiliation/attendance/work/experience at Maxwell.
You do not demonstrate it.

Ninthace

16th May 2024, 19:01

Lonewolf_50

16th May 2024, 20:13

I perhaps came away from Maxwell with a different perspective. Have you ever heard the phrase American Imperialism? That is where I met it writ large when working with he students. I was able to enlighten then and explain being American does not actually give you an automatic right to move armoured divisions into other countries just because you feel like it. Depends on what year you were there, obviously, and your own hands are not clean. Hypocrite much? Yeah, you sure do.

In other news. However, China and Russia addressed their stance on nuclear war in their joint statement issued on Thursday. "There can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought," the statement reads. How nice to hear them say that.

SASless

16th May 2024, 20:26

Excuse me....but you not be addressing your comments to the Russians instead of Americans?

Last time I checked it was the Russians that had sent their tanks to somewhere without permission.

Or...did you simply ignore that small fact out of Pavlov like reaction to the mention of Trump's name?

Ninthace

16th May 2024, 21:09

That was the point I made to the students. It your plan involves your forces in other countries, then you have to talk to that country and allow for that in the planning. Their plan just assumed some sort of divine right to move forces around as they saw fit. Trump was still a minor TV personality then.

Saab Dastard

16th May 2024, 21:10

Gentlemen, please! No fighting in the War Room! This is the NATO vs Russia thread, not US politics nor UK / EU / US bickering.

Ninthace

16th May 2024, 21:12

Agreed. Friends should be able to take a little light criticism.

Lonewolf_50

16th May 2024, 23:42

For henra
I see your point about nukes, but the NPT is dead. If Pakistan has them, I have no issue at all with Germans having them. De Gaulle's independent nuclear posture is looking more prescient by the day.

For Saab:
Let's see, who dragged Trump into this?
Safetypee. Location=UK.
Europe not paying into the NATO common coffers sufficiently to satisfy Washington, where the treaty was signed, goes back to Ike.
It's an old story, basically as old as NATO, back when it was the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact Russia on the other side of the line.
That leaching habit was as obvious as a dog's balls when I was in NATO in the 90's.
There was one A-side. The US.
There was maybe a B-side or two.
The rest began as C-sides.
As the CIS was all that was left, and the Partnership for Peace was one of the promising initiatives ongoing, and we (NATO) were working with the Russians in Northern Bosnia, the friction subsided for a bit.

Now the setting is different. The pressure is on.
On the bright side, Sweden and Finland are now on side, which is a silver lining to the cloud.

West Coast

17th May 2024, 01:31

Come off it Lonewolf 50, you know the US likes to be needed and tell other folk what to do. The more other nations get to be able to do it alone, the less the hold you have in them.

Europe has become very comfortable in the subservient mode, you agree?

Asturias56

17th May 2024, 07:16

"On the bright side, Sweden and Finland are now on side, which is a silver lining to the cloud."

Exactly - a major change in pressure on Russia - they used to rule the Baltic - now they're trapped into two tiny areas of beach

Hot 'n' High

17th May 2024, 07:47

......................... Now the setting is different. The pressure is on. On the bright side, Sweden and Finland are now on side, which is a silver lining to the cloud.

One thing that's worried me a bit re NATO are some of the ex-Warsaw Pact countries who joined 99 - 04 and even Türkiye given their position on the war in Ukraine. Like any family, the more members that are gathered in the room, the more likely spats will break out leading to a less than united front. And, given the legacy of the old USSR/Warsaw Pact which still pervades (certainly in the Kremlin), some of the NATO "family" will undoubtedly have similar factions in their own political arenas. We have seen some of that already. And on a security front too............

No conclusions drawn ....... merely H 'n' H pondering "life, the universe and NATO"!

I'd be interested in any observations ....... tho, maybe PPRuNe is not the place ....... ;)

jolihokistix

17th May 2024, 08:37

Fear not, Putin’s stunning cunning plans will keep waking NATO, drawing them further together.
Comrade P, creating his own worst nightmare.

minigundiplomat

17th May 2024, 10:54

Ninthace

17th May 2024, 11:42

Europe has become very comfortable in the subservient mode, you agree?
It certainly suited some countries to let American stars sit in the expensive seats behind the big desks in NATO. Expect some difficulties if the cash ratios change.

Lonewolf_50

17th May 2024, 13:09

One thing that's worried me a bit re NATO are some of the ex-Warsaw Pact countries who joined 99 - 04 and even Türkiye given their position on the war in Ukraine. Like any family, the more members that are gathered in the room, the more likely spats will break out leading to a less than united front. And, given the legacy of the old USSR/Warsaw Pact which still pervades (certainly in the Kremlin), some of the NATO "family" will undoubtedly have similar factions in their own political arenas. We have seen some of that already. And on a security front too............
No conclusions drawn ....... merely H 'n' H pondering "life, the universe and NATO"!
I'd be interested in any observations ....... tho, maybe PPRuNe is not the place ....... ;)
Maybe on JB. Each nation is entitled to its own take on a crisis. If you look at the responses to the civil war in Yugoslavia, which ended up in NATO's first out of area operation, the responses were mixed - in part due to how any response was going to be received in Russia.
That's part of the fun with 16 or 19 nations, even more fun with 32. Herding cats.
It certainly suited some countries to let American stars sit in the expensive seats behind the big desks in NATO. Expect some difficulties if the cash ratios change. For sure. There was quite the shuffling and tooth sucking when the Spanish agreed to join the Military command structure, likewise when Sarkozy brought France back in (reversing De Gaulle's move) more shuffling was involved.
The NATO game of musical chairs doubtless amuses Vlad and his cronies.

In other news:
A top NATO general says Russian troops don't have the numbers or the skills to mount a strategic breakthrough in Kharkiv (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-top-nato-general-says-russian-troops-don-t-have-the-numbers-or-the-skills-to-mount-a-strategic-breakthrough-in-kharkiv/ar-BB1mxtdV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=c9ba2e0426414721925e3db2c06a4e8a&ei=11)

This is one of those "running off at the mouth" things that I wish flag officers and general officers would do less of.

A top NATO general says Russia won't be able to achieve a "strategic breakthrough" in Kharkiv.
US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli said Russia just doesn't have the numbers or skills to pull it off.
Last month, Cavoli told Congress that the Russian army is 15% bigger than when it invaded Ukraine.

And if Vlad's objective is "If I can't have it, nobody can have it, I'll just wreck it" how does that fit into your assessment?
What if the good General is underestimating the opponent? Never happened before has it? Oh, wait, yes it has ...
Maybe this is part of General Baldric's Cavoli's cunning deception plan: appear overconfident! That will fool 'em!

Hot 'n' High

17th May 2024, 15:03

Maybe on JB. Each nation is entitled to its own take on a crisis. If you look at the responses to the civil war in Yugoslavia, which ended up in NATO's first out of area operation, the responses were mixed - in part due to how any response was going to be received in Russia.
That's part of the fun with 16 or 19 nations, even more fun with 32. Herding cats.

I quite agree that, as you rightly mention, we have seen individual Nations taking a view on events over the years as NATO transitioned away from the old Cold War polarised world into a wider European environment which includes the Ukraine War. But I'm now looking beyond that as per the title to this thread - NATO vs Russia.

Given we seem to be reverting back towards a far more polarised world again with a resurgence of Russia (and China) against the West (certainly that seems to be Valds viewpoint), and given the old Soviet/Russian way of "working from within" to foment discord, what will be the impact on NATOs effectiveness in any NATO vs Russia scenario given that several NATO members have strong historic ties back to Moscow?

DogTailRed2

17th May 2024, 15:29

Help me here. How friendly is China to Russia? Seems to be a friendship of convenience to be honest favouring China's politics. Wasn't so long ago Russia was invading China.
China needs the Wests money more than it needs Russia's friendship.

Asturias56

17th May 2024, 16:10

Hot 'n' High

17th May 2024, 16:19

Help me here. How friendly is China to Russia? Seems to be a friendship of convenience to be honest favouring China's politics. ...........

Good question! I think Asturias56 sums the answer up well. :ok:

henra

17th May 2024, 18:10

China needs Russia as a counter-weight to the USA - if there was no Russia it would be a straight standoff and even Xi knows that probably won't end well for him. The USA saw of the Soviet Union, and it saw of Japan economically. I doubt he thinks they're much use except as a source of raw materials and some advanced military hardware but as long as they are causing a ruckus it divides US attention.
I think the Chinese strategic approach to friendship goes further. Russia's resource rich regions are close to the Chinese today's border. They will be eying basically all territories east of the Urals. Like a good drug dealer they will be best pal until pay- day comes. Then they will take the farm. I wouldn't be surpised if in 10-15 years from now Russia would end at the Ural.

Lonewolf_50

17th May 2024, 18:16

henra: not the first time I've seen that prediction (although the time horizon was about 25 years) but at least that would bound the NATO/Russia problem a bit more tightly.

Lonewolf_50

17th May 2024, 18:17

... in any NATO vs Russia scenario given that several NATO members have strong historic ties back to Moscow? Hungary has already shown how that works.
Turkey has been demonstrating it for about 50 years (see Cyprus among other fun issues).

Not everyone was in favor of NATO expansion but those in favor of it slowly got the support they needed.
The Germans now have their buffer states to the east, so I guess that they are satisfied.

Herod

17th May 2024, 20:47

If anyone has doubts about China's attitude to Russia, read "On the Beach", by Nevil Shute. Basically the account of how the war started. 1957 I believe it was written. Basically what Henra has said. China wants the eastern part of Russia.

Fly-by-Wife

17th May 2024, 21:45

What are the odds against chinese troops appearing in Crimea or captured territories, or even Belarus? The chinese bailed out NK in the 50s - would they bail out russia now? what would Ukraine and the West / NATO do if that came about?

Ninthace

17th May 2024, 22:40

Vanishingly small, I do not think there is that much love between the two nations such that one would fight and die for the other. They are no longer kindred in terms of political system and as far as I know, there is no treaty obligation. Moreover, if the situation were that bad, it would be reinforcing failure at the end of a very long logistic and communication chain. In fact, a weakened Russia would be to China’s advantage so it would have to be a hell of a good offer by Russia.

jolihokistix

18th May 2024, 01:05

Perhaps Putin has had to promise Xi that this time he will personally force through the pipeline from Lake Baikal to China.

wondering

18th May 2024, 03:33

Low average

18th May 2024, 05:42

The Chinese have a long memory. They remember the humiliation by the imperial powers in the 19th century. It's in their interest to keep the US and the West in a constant state of war. China will use everything at its disposal to wear the free world down. I reckon, communist Chinas longterm goal will be to walk into Taiwan before its 100's anniversary in 2049.

It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?

The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.

I think this is a reasonable assessment and a reason to accelerate the uncoupling of economic reliance on China. Identify what comes from China, slap some tariffs on, stop buying their stuff, build our own. Better to do it now rather than in a hurry like we did with Russia.

West Coast

18th May 2024, 07:38

The Chinese have a long memory. They remember the humiliation by the imperial powers in the 19th century. It's in their interest to keep the US and the West in a constant state of war. China will use everything at its disposal to wear the free world down. I reckon, communist Chinas longterm goal will be to walk into Taiwan before its 100's anniversary in 2049.

It's very convenient for China that Russia does the dirty work for them. It will make sure Russia can continue its aggression for a long time. It will cost NATO a lot of resources to rearm itself and to keep resupplying Ukraine. It's all about attrition. E.g. at what cost can Russia, China or North Korea manufacture a 155 mm shell? How much is it in the West? Is it a factor of ten?

The axis China - Russia - North Korea - Iran will keep challenging the West/ NATO for a long time.

Not saying you’re wrong, but a lot has changed since then that needs to be added to the calculus. Namely China’s desire to grow its economy and to pacify the citizens who have become accustomed to a certain lifestyle. War with the west isn’t consistent with those goals. Not to say the won’t be adventurous with Taiwan but I can't see Chinese troops slugging it out in Europe. How much market share will the Chinese lose if they do?

Asturias56

18th May 2024, 09:00

The Chinese have three military bases world-wide. This is the same as those superpowers Netherlands & Saudi Arabia. They don't want (or need) to get into other folks fights. They certainly don't see themselves as any sort of "policeman". And even in Mao's day relationships between China & USSR were pretty fraught. China will involve itself in adjacent areas - NK, Vietnam, S China Sea, Himalaya's, Burma but will not interfere directly further away - at least not in our lifetimes.

DogTailRed2

18th May 2024, 09:43

Not everyone was in favor of NATO expansion

People talk of `Nato expansion` as a threat, in the same tone as they would talk of Hitlers intentions towards Europe.
Nato is a response to a threat, lets not forget that. A threat from Russia after the end of WW2 when Russia started to divide up Europe starting with Germany.
Since WW2 Nato has not threatened another country. Non Nato countries have threatened Nato countries.
The biggest expansion will be in response to Russias aggression.

wondering

18th May 2024, 09:46

Of course, we won't see Chinese soldier fighting in Ukraine. China has border disputes with basically all its neighbors. They have enough on their hands to deal with. Let proxy Russia and others fight for its overseas interests. Weakening the West.

GeeRam

18th May 2024, 10:15

China has border disputes with basically all its neighbors. They have enough on their hands to deal with.

Including Russia. It wasn't that long ago that they were hurling ordnance over the northern border with each other.
Plus the large area of what was northern Manchuria, including Russia's important Pacific naval port of Vladivostok has only been in Russian hands for less than 150 years, and many in China would like to see it back to being part of China.
Pootin and his cronies heading to China last week with a large tub of Vaseline in hand for the shafting they are going to get as part of any deal with China likely shows how desperate they are getting, and China will be happy to accommodate for what it get out if it. With western sanctions, Russia has already turned to China for new cars/trucks etc and they'll see supplying Russian with fake' luxury goods plus all the cheap tat that might no longer head to the west.

Lonewolf_50

18th May 2024, 15:54

People talk of `Nato expansion` as a threat,
Who would that be? Certainly not me.
in the same tone as they would talk of Hitlers intentions towards Europe.
OK, there's your strawman, now go and set it on fire.
And in the future, try not to tell Granny how to suck eggs.

My general reservations about NATO enlargement had to do with working inside of NATO, and seeing what a nightmare it was to get anything done with 16 nations.
Still, a few things got done here and there.
As you grow that club, and the "all or nothing" model continues, it becomes more unwieldy as each new member joins the club.
It's getting to be like the UN, bloated and top heavy. (The recent addition of Finland and Sweden was an unexpected boon).

The 16 nations, collectively, chose (explicitly at Madrid, 1997) to grow rather than fold the circus tent now that the circus (the Cold War) was over.
That they made that decision collectively is significant.The result of the summit was that Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic were invited to join NATO. Fellow Visegrád Group (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_Group) member Slovakia was excluded from this invitation. Slovakia had held a referendum (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_referendum,_1997) on NATO membership in May 1997, but turnout in the referendum failed to achieve the required 50% of eligible voters and government sabotage was blamed, which in turn was viewed as one of a string of undemocratic measures taken by Prime Minister Vladimír Mečiar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladim%C3%ADr_Me%C4%8Diar). A majority of NATO members reportedly supported France's proposal to also immediately invite Romania and Slovenia as members, but this was strongly opposed by U.S. President Bill Clinton (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton), and even an "iron-clad guarantee" that they could be invited in two years time was watered-down in favor of an "open door" policy for new potential members. A main concern for the United States was the cost of potentially raising the military standards of the new Eastern European members. Estimates put this cost at as much as US$10 billion, which participants worried could lead to the treaty recognizing the new members being rejected by the Republican (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(U.S.))-held U.S. Senate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Senate).Like I said, not everyone was for NATO enlargement, but it eventually happened.

bobward

18th May 2024, 16:35

Many, many years ago I had a chat with an intelligence officer at an RAF Base. He suggested that, t understand the Russians you had to look at the world from their point of view.
To the West, NATO. To the South, China. To the North, over the Pole the USA. In their eyes they are surrounded by enemies of the Communist system. Treaties mean little to them: think about the Germaon-Soviet non-aggression pact of 1939, then what happened a few years later.

I don't say I agree with their viewpoint, although, sometimes it does help to see the world from the other guy's point of view.

How will this tragic war end? At some point there must be negotiation, and some form of reparations made. Any treaty must be credible, and the signatories trustworthy. Would you trust Mr Putin?

Lookleft

19th May 2024, 02:38

The Russians are paranoid, have always been paranoid and will be paranoid into the future. You only have to look at their rhetoric about the War in Ukraine to understand that. Their stance on NATO reflects this and no amount of Kremlin propaganda changes the fact that NATO was never, has never been and will not into the future be interested in invading Russia.

wondering

19th May 2024, 03:05

Many, many years ago I had a chat with an intelligence officer at an RAF Base. He suggested that, t understand the Russians you had to look at the world from their point of view.

A very valid argument. The same can be said for all the Eastern European countries which lived under the Soviet boot for decades. Why didn't the West see their point of view the last 30 years? Instead cheap raw materials and energy took priority over genuin concerns.

The whole argument about feeling threatened is moot with nuclear weapons. Who in his right mind would attack a country which is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons? Russia would not hesitate to use them if its statehood would be on the table. The same can not be said for our Eastern European partners. E.g. there is no way the Baltic countries could defeat a Russian onslaught on their own.

Russia is still mourning the loss of its empire. It's super power status. The war against Ukraine is all about restoring its former standing. If Russia is successful other countries will be absorbed in due course.

Asturias56

19th May 2024, 06:38

"China has border disputes with basically all its neighbors."

I'm not sure that is true. They currently have no beef with N Korea, Russia, Mongolia, the 3 Stan's, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Burma, Thailand & Vietnam on land.

They have a land disputes with India & Bhutan and the offshore islands with Japan and with everyone in the S China Sea (including Vietnam).

from WIKI

" Many of these territorial disputes are almost identical to those that the Republic of China (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China) (ROC), also known as Taiwan, has with other countries. Therefore, many of the subsequent resolved disputes made by the PRC after 1949 with other governments may not be recognized by the ROC.

According to academic Swaran Singh, China's generosity was likely motivated by the security concern of reducing foreign support for disgruntled groups within China's southwest border (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_China).] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#cit e_note-:3-33)In Central Asia, the newly-independent following the dissolution of the Soviet Union (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union) inherited the border disagreements with China, which had themselves been inherited from Tsarist Russia and the Qing dynasty. China negotiated bilaterally to resolve its borders with these conflicts.[35] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#cit e_note-:6-35) Ultimately, China obtained Central Asian territory significantly less than what it had originally claimed. Resolution of these disputes on territorial terms generally favorable to the Central Asian countries created goodwill for China, avoided conflict, and also resulted in recognition that the czarist era borders were imposed unjustly on China."

henra

19th May 2024, 07:55

The whole argument about feeling threatened is moot with nuclear weapons. Who in his right mind would attack a country which is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons? Russia would not hesitate to use them if its statehood would be on the table.

The mechanism they are afraid of works more subtle. You can see it in Ukraine and it is the way they lost their empire. Not by Countries invading but by Countries internally changing and letting lose of Russia, and switching to the other side and then being shielded by NATO from getting them back. For good. It is somewhat similar to the Iron Curtain where border patrol shot people who tried to flee over the fence. They knew once they were over the fence they were gone for good.
NATO is getting closer (which is not least a result of their past and current own behaviour but it is a fact) passively aggressively from their POV. By indirectly encouraging people in Countries to join 'the West' (not so much by sending their democratic vales but more by seeing the wealthy Western Countries and looking at one's own misery). And Russia is struggling to find a way to prevent this. Economically they can't. They gave up on this long ago. Ukraine was a different attempt which went t*ts up for the most part but I guess they still try to make an example for other Countries in their sphere. They see their empire futher eroding and haven't found a way to stop this or turn it around.

ORAC

20th May 2024, 06:23

Polish “East Shield”.

https://archive.ph/2024.05.20-020954/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/poland-announces-2bn-border-defence-project-to-keep-out-russia-3vqb2sgwm

Poland announces £2bn border defence project ‘to keep out Russia’

The East Shield scheme will make the Polish border ‘impenetrable’ to potential enemies, according to Donald Tusk

ORAC

21st May 2024, 10:02

Report in Norwegian but with English subtitles.https://x.com/selshevneren/status/1792263367530303999?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Interview on @NRKno about the maritime sea cable that was cut on 9th May right ourside Vesterålen.

The cable is a sensor that can also detect submarines, which could give Russia a potential advantage by increasing the uncertainty about the location of these submarines.

Geir Pedersen from Havforskningen and Tom Roseth - associate professor in Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Defence University College give comments.

ORAC

21st May 2024, 10:18

https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1792739759896592829?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Nine people arrested in Poland over alleged Russian sabotage plot.

The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.

https://kyivindependent.com/nine-people-arrested-in-poland-over-russian-sabotage-plot/

The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.

"We currently have nine suspects detained and indicted, who have been directly implicated in the name of Russian (intelligence) services in acts of sabotage in Poland," Tusk said.

The individuals were Polish, Ukrainian, and Belarusian citizens. Tusk also suggested they may have been recruited from criminal circles.

Acts of alleged sabotage include "beatings, arson, and attempted arson," not just in Poland but also in Latvia, Lithuania, and possibly even Sweden.

Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania….

Spunky Monkey

21st May 2024, 11:31

"Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania…."
Jeeez how will Europe cope against such outrages?

beardy

21st May 2024, 12:34

"Tusk explained that the group planned, for example, to set fire to a paint factory in Wroclaw, western Poland, and an Ikea center in Lithuania…."
Jeeez how will Europe cope against such outrages?
The effect of destabilising a population should not be confused with destabilising a government, although the former can lead to the latter.

TURIN

21st May 2024, 13:28

The whole argument about feeling threatened is moot with nuclear weapons. Who in his right mind would attack a country which is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons? .
Argentina? Although one could argue that Galtieri wasn't of sound mind.

ORAC

21st May 2024, 20:55

Russia adopting Chinese tactics - let’s see them try and enforce them the way the Chinese are doing…..https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1792996396926120049?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.

According to the document drafted by the Russian defense ministry, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region as its internal sea waters.

To do that, geographic coordinates of the points that determine the position of the baselines from which the width of the territorial sea of the Russian Federation is measured, as well as the adjacent zone off the coast and islands will be changed.

🔹️At the border with Finland, Russian government intends to correct the coordinates in the area of the islands of Yahi, Sommers, Holland, Rodsher, Maly Tyuters, Vigrund, as well as near the northern entrance cape of the Narva River, follows from the appendix to the Cabinet of Ministers.

🔹️On the border with Lithuania, the area of the Curonian Spit in the Gulf of Gdansk, the areas of Cape Taran, the cape south of Cape Taran, as well as the Baltic Spit came under review.

The current geographical coordinates established by the USSR Council of Ministers in 1985 “do not fully correspond to the modern geographical situation,” the authors of the project claim. The points were recorded “using small-scale maritime navigation charts,” which, in turn, were based on works from the mid-20th century, and this “does not allow us to determine the external boundary of the internal sea waters” of the Russian Federation, the document says.

As a result of the changes, “a previously absent system of straight baselines will be established on the southern part of the Russian islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, as well as in the area of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk, allowing the corresponding water areas to be used as internal sea waters of the Russian Federation; The passage of the State border of the Russian Federation at sea will change due to a change in the position of the external border of the territorial sea,” the authors of the project explained.

The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).

NutLoose

22nd May 2024, 01:17

Hmmmm that’s interesting, I wonder what the reason is behind that. Again that must be deemed as NATO territory.

[https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792988181723218211/QUOTE]

[url]https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792988181723218211

[QUOTE]https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1793050286006644800

https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1793050286006644800

(https://x.com/TristanSnell/status/1793050286006644800).

NutLoose

22nd May 2024, 01:45

A man making a whole lot of sense.

https://x.com/martenkokk/status/1792110889841066040

https://x.com/martenkokk/status/1792110889841066040

Lookleft

22nd May 2024, 05:40

I have considered the same thing. We are in the period of the late 30's where Japan was ascendant and Nazi Germany was grabbing land under the pretext of joining the German speaking people. The only thing that will change the outcome is the willingness of the Western countries to make clear its intentions to defend Ukraine with all means available to stop the spread of one man's revisionist ideas of history. Just like one man's desire for revenge due to Versailles we have another man wanting revenge for the collapse of Communism and its supposed humiliation of the citizens of the USSR.

Beamr

22nd May 2024, 07:30

The thing is, the Finland - Russia border cuts the Vanhasaari island in the middle (Malyy island in Russian). If Russia is to move the borders unilaterally thereby expanding their territory, they are actually trying to take Finnish soil. Personally I consider that as a declaration of war.

ORAC

22nd May 2024, 08:19

If Ukraine had done this years ago, Russia would not now be able to use the railways to support their front line…

Baltics take note….

https://x.com/prune602/status/1792907421569941843?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
“Finland is thinking about abandoning the “Russian” railway gauge after joining NATO”

Do it. Do it now.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/05/21/finlyandiya-zadumalas-ob-otkaze-ot-rossiiskoi-kolei-zheleznoi-dorogi-posle-vstupleniya-v-nato-a131376

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1290x1532/image_3edb3bda7ecdcb17c6ce997264e998ed6db3dbc5.jpeg

Asturias56

22nd May 2024, 08:25

Beamr

22nd May 2024, 10:32

You can't "change your border" unilaterally - all you are doing is making a claim (see "x-dash line").

In every border dispute it takes BOTH sides to agree (see Spain & UK at Gib.)

I don't think they are planning to change the border across any land - that really would be a war-like action - and against a NATO member.

They're redefining the baseline points on the coast from which they define their marine boundaries. This is a common issue in lots of places - Greece-Turkey for example. My suspicion is that the 1985 mapping was crook - old USSR maps were notoriously wrong - deliberately so . They may well have "bent" the maps in 1985 to make it harder for NATO to plan an attack - now they realise they actually screwed up..................
Most of the sea border of Russia is directly against Finnish or Estonian border, there is a very narrow international water area. In essence, if Russians wish to expand their area, it would be a demand towards Finland or Estonia.
This is no coincidence. Talks of 1985 maps being wrong is irrelevant Kremlin excuse.

NOTE: the islands in question today were part of Finland prior the Winter war, and Soviet Union made demands regarding those islands to Finland in 1938 "to protect SU interests against nazi Germany".

To make it short: Russians knew their baseline points in 1985, they know them now. It is just an excuse by Russians to test responses from individual countries, the EU, NATO and UN. Russia unfortunately is very good at such operations.

NATO has announced it will protect the freedom of navigation. What if Russia unilaterally announces parts of international waters as its own territory and sends warships to repell any ships entering the waters? What will be NATOs response?
What if Russia claims Estonian waters as their area? Rinse and repeat in the Kaliningrad area.

Maskirovka, again.

Asturias56

22nd May 2024, 11:14

"NATO has announced it will protect the freedom of navigation. What if Russia unilaterally announces parts of international waters as its own territory"

That's the point - it's unilateral - and it takes all sides to agree any boundary. If the Russians make a unilateral change and then seek to enforce it then, as you say, that becomes a potential incident. It took years for the N Sea to be divvied up - at one point the Dutch and the Danes agreed a boundary (which contained several gas discoveries) which severely restricted German waters. After a lot of noise it was amended in a 3 way discussion.

ORAC

22nd May 2024, 11:20

the point - it's unilateral - and it takes all sides to agree any boundary. If the Russians make a unilateral change and then seek to enforce it then, as you say, that becomes a potential incident.
Which why I suggest you look at what the Chinese have been doing in the South China Seas, particularly Vietnamese and Philippines waters….

ORAC

22nd May 2024, 11:22

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1793189495707259223?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Putin's plans include capturing the Swedish island of Gotland in order to gain control over the Baltic Sea, - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Mikael Büden in an interview with RND.

He stated that due to the increase of Russian aggression around the world, Sweden was forced to arm Gotland: "it is protected with the help of units permanently stationed there and the transfer of additional forces [in case of danger]."

Probably, the head of the Kremlin is also interested in the Åland Islands. "The Russians are closely monitoring what is happening at the entrances and exits to the Baltic Sea."

Putitnt's appetite for additional territories grows the weaker Europe reacts. And Europe has not responded at all so far.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1283x1523/image_2971ca3a4281aca7269d4e9552cdc5e4e5e48a65.png

ORAC

22nd May 2024, 11:28

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1020x2000/image_03034cf7db0a2d7aa62b5e62d9ef110f57d367f3.png

Gargleblaster

22nd May 2024, 11:48

Re the Baltic Sea, don't forget there are only three narrow straits out of it, and those have NATO countries on both sides of them.

Lonewolf_50

22nd May 2024, 12:57

Russia adopting Chinese tactics - let’s see them try and enforce them the way the Chinese are doing…..

The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as ineffective” (section “Baltic Sea”).
Just like the Turk/Greek bit in the Aegean, but maybe not as cordial now. (I say that with tongue slightly in cheek, the cordial bit).
we have another man wanting revenge for the collapse of Communism and its supposed humiliation of the citizens of the USSR. The Chinese have been leaning on their "century of humiliation line" for about 50 years. They still hold a grudge over the 19th century.
Which why I suggest you look at what the Chinese have been doing in the South Chia Seas, particularly Vietnamese and Philippines waters…. Yep. They'll push and see what they can get away with. Putin's playbook is quite similar.

ORAC

22nd May 2024, 14:50

https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/21/russia-likely-behind-fire-that-destroyed-warsaw-shopping-centre-says-tusk/

Russia “likely” behind fire that destroyed Warsaw shopping centre, says Tusk

It is “likely” that Russia was involved in the fire that recently destroyed Warsaw’s largest shopping centre, says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. However, he added that investigations are still ongoing.

At a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, at which he was discussing the formation of a new commission to investigate Russian influence in Poland, Tusk said Russian operatives could have been involved in the fire that earlier this month destroyed the Marywilska 44 shopping centre (https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/13/after-warsaws-largest-shopping-centre-destroyed-by-fire-owner-pledges-to-rebuild/).

That incident, in which no one was hurt, came amid a spate of other fires around Poland in the period of a few days, leading to speculation that they could be the result of a Russian sabotage campaign.

“We are examining the threads – they are quite likely – that the Russian services had something to do with the Marywilska fire,” said Tusk. But he added that “proceedings are ongoing” and full information would be provided when the investigation reached a conclusion.…

At the same press conference, Tusk also announced that three further people suspected of carrying out sabotage on behalf of Russia had been detained overnight, adding to the nine that he revealed yesterday (https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/21/poland-charges-nine-people-suspected-of-sabotage-on-behalf-of-russia/).…

Lonewolf_50

22nd May 2024, 15:55

Looks like the Russian may be walking that back: By Guy Faulconbridge and Stine Jacobsen

MOSCOW/COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -A Russian defence ministry proposal to revise Russia's maritime border in the eastern Baltic Sea was deleted on Wednesday from an official portal after creating confusion and concern among NATO members such as Finland, Sweden, Lithuania and Estonia.

In its official submission, the defence ministry said that a Soviet measurement of the border from 1985 had used mid-20th century nautical charts, and so did not fully correspond to more modern cartographical coordinates. But that proposal was deleted on Wednesday from the official portal where it had been posted.

A message said simply: "The draft is deleted." It gave no explanation. The defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
It was not immediately clear from the original draft decree exactly how the border might be adjusted and whether or not there had been any consultation with other states adjoining the Baltic Sea.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told the TT news agency: "Russia can't unilaterally decide on new borders."
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia had not been in touch, adding: "Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts."
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the proposal an "obvious escalation" against the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and the European Union.
He said it "must be met with an appropriately firm response".
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said: "At first glance, it seems to be an absurd notion."
In an emailed comment to Reuters, he added: "It cannot be ruled out that the report is an attempt to sow confusion."