Venezuela poised to invade Guyana

[ORAC]

The Brazilian Armed Forces have reportedly been placed into a Hhightened state of readiness due to a significant movement of military equipment and troops to Eastern Venezuela on the border with Guyana,

Officials believing that Venezuela may soon Invade Guyana in order to annex the “Guayana Esequiba” region which accounts for over 60% of the Guyana’s territory and which is claimed by the Venezuelan government and which is holding a referendum on Sunday to legitimise their claim.

Guyana achieved independence from the United Kingdom as a dominion in 1966, became a republic in 1970, and remains a member of the Commonwealth

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-d3e65757ca8da2355994ec8a44c148ba

https://tinyurl.com/ypsvxmz5

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba

[Asturias56]

Venezuela is just creeping back to decent relations with the US etc - an invasion would sink that immediately

Do you know how much money US oil companies have sunk into Guyana? It's BILLIONS - and Guyana is a democracy

[chevvron]

As Guyana is Commonwealth, there is probably some sort of UK presence in the country isn't there?

[ORAC]

And Venezuela isn’t, but is an ally of Russia - which would love the USA to have yet another war on another continent to further distract the USA, and Europe, away from the war in Ukraine.

Not sure what the UK could do even if asked for assistance - we used to have a handful of Harriers and a few troops in Belize to deter Guatemala, but I’m not sure we could even raise a few F-35Bs and troops for Guyana, or how much of a deterrent they’d be.

[jolihokistix]

Venezuela will be tempted to take a leaf out of Russia’s book re Ukraine.

Plus they have Russia’s backing militarily and politically in this wonderful new ‘anti-white bloc’ world order that Russia envisions.

[rudestuff]

Fire up the task force! I wouldn't want to be 2 Para CO right now.

[chevvron]

There's always a frigate patrollng the Caribbean isn't there? That would be the closest 'asset'.

[ORAC]

That will be useful in a land war….

HMS Dauntless, there since May for the hurricane season, currently in South Carolina on her way home for Xmas.

[Biggus]

The in theatre RN warship can no doubt evacuate embassy staff, dependents, etc if required.

Otherwise we have nothing military to contribute to this situation, the cupboard is bare - and one has to ask the question why should we.

We are no longer a world power and haven't been for some considerable time.

[Exrigger]

Don't know how accurate or believable the figures are:

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php

[DuncanDoenitz]

Dateline 28 Nov; according to North Korea's KCNA (and why should we doubt them) there is a British carrier in Norfolk, Va.

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1701123042-401263654/respected-comrade-kim-jong-un-receives-report-on-operational-preparation-of-reconnaissance-satellite-from-nata-pyongyang-general-control-center/

[ORAC]

HMSPWLS is indeed off the east coast of the USA.

https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/HMS-Prince-of-Wales-aircraft-carrier-1434


She’s been doing trials with US based F-35s and the Mohave UAV, but doesn’t have an air wing of her own onboard.

[Lonewolf_50]

I wonder if XVIII Airborne Corps got put on alert.

[langleybaston]

If it is a republic, "nothing to see here, move on please".

History teaches us to mind our own business, but very few politicians disagree with Henry Ford re. history.

[Wetstart Dryrun]

Where's the harrier force when you need it?

[Video Mixdown]

Where's the harrier force when you need it?
It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs.
The UK has no responsibility for Guyana's defence. If this kicks off the only task that might possibly involve UK forces would be if Embassy staff needed emergency evacuation.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/analyticacamil1/status/1730040395084583316?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Folks, I can’t stress this enough.

If the US ‘does not’ intervene in any Venezuelan invasion of Guyana, Guyana and Brazil are ‘going’ to be steamrolled by the Venezuelan military.

The Venezuelan Air Force is simply qualitatively and quantitively superior to the Brazilian Air Force; the Venezuelan Army has a qualitative edge over the larger Brazilian Army (which can’t even supply its troops that far north because Brazil’s railheads terminate well south of Guyana — while Venezuela shares a land border with Guyana); and Brazil’s Navy is ‘extremely’ vulnerable to strikes from the Venezuelan Air Force.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1125/image_41528ee3bceb6e9ab2f835b045dd8aa7bb5ba69a.png
​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

I'm sure the Venezuelan Gvt remember what happened to the last dictatorship that took on a democracy------

[langleybaston]

Folks, I can’t stress this enough.

If the US ‘does not’ intervene in any Venezuelan invasion of Guyana, Guyana and Brazil are ‘going’ to be steamrolled by the Venezuelan military.

The Venezuelan Air Force is simply qualitatively and quantitively superior to the Brazilian Air Force; the Venezuelan Army has a qualitative edge over the larger Brazilian Army (which can’t even supply its troops that far north because Brazil’s railheads terminate well south of Guyana — while Venezuela shares a land border with Guyana); and Brazil’s Navy is ‘extremely’ vulnerable to strikes from the Venezuelan Air Force.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1125/image_41528ee3bceb6e9ab2f835b045dd8aa7bb5ba69a.png


Thank you, and just as may be.

However I am not going to allow S America to add to my worry list, and I certainly don't want the Uk government to do so either.
We were all happier when ignorant and ill-informed, "mental elf" hardly got a mention, now all the world and his wife is on diazepam or something stronger.

where ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise.

​​​​​​​Nurse, pass the tablets.

[caiman27]

I have been close to the Venezuela / Guyana border several times. What people are missing is that there is no transport infrastructure whatsoever in that part of the world. This is dense rain forest. People travel by river boat. An army would just get swallowed and spat out.

Secondly, the Venezuelan military may look strong on paper but most of the equipment is unserviceable, training is poor and the army is not in any form of condition to invade anywhere. In particular, Russian jets don't respond well to tropical humidity.

The whole thing is just Maduro playing election games.

The great majority of remaining Venezuelans are just happy to find basic services and food. It's also worth remembering that millions of Venezuelans are refugees elsewhere in South America where they have no interest in further destabilisation.

[SLXOwft]

The ICJ which is examining the territorial dispute has ordered the Venezualan Government to do nothing to alter the status quo. The consensus is tha Maduro is testing the strenght of his support. as caiman27 implies. THe UK has a defence training agreement with Guyana but asa far as I know nothing public by way of an agreement to provide miltary support.

Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

The court did not expressly forbid Venezuela from going ahead with a referendum on Sunday over its rights to the region around the Esequibo river, as Guyana has requested.

But judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - as the World Court is formally known - ruled that any move to alter the status quo should be stopped."The court observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area," presiding judge Joan Donoghue said.

"Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation," she added.
(...)

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vociferously encouraged voters to approve the referendum, in what political analysts say is a test of government support ahead of planned 2024 presidential elections, rather than a prelude to bellicose action.

The referendum, which is "consultative" and can be approved by simple majority, asks Venezuelans, among other things, if they agree to incorporate the region and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.

The analysts said the referendum will probably be approved, given the lack of any 'no' campaign and the likelihood that voters who are opposed will stay home.

Friday's ruling is the latest development in the larger border dispute. The ICJ said in April it had jurisdiction over the case, but a final ruling could be years away.

World Court orders Venezuela to refrain from action in border dispute with Guyana (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/world-court-orders-venezuela-refrain-action-border-dispute-with-guyana-2023-12-01/)

[ex-fast-jets]

Your opinion VM - others still use the Harrier/AV-B or variants of it. Our GR-9 would still be a valid force component for any current conflict, with the weapons it could now carry, and it would add capability to QEII and PWLS without much added support infrastructure - plus interoperability with USMC and other vessels. Not as capable as the F-35B, maybe, but I have no valid knowledge of the difference the two offer with modern weapons capability of either or both. The old Harrier did well in Belize with its very limited weapons, so I think a GR-9 with a much more capable weapons load could have done quite well in an environment such as Guyana if we had not sent them to the scrap yard. Just my opinion.

[Lonewolf_50]

The ICJ which is examining the territorial dispute has ordered the Venezualan Government to do nothing to alter the status quo. The consensus is tha Maduro is testing the strenght of his support. as caiman27 implies. THe UK has a defence training agreement with Guyana but asa far as I know nothing public by way of an agreement to provide miltary support.

Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

The court did not expressly forbid Venezuela from going ahead with a referendum on Sunday over its rights to the region around the Esequibo river, as Guyana has requested.

But judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - as the World Court is formally known - ruled that any move to alter the status quo should be stopped."The court observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area," presiding judge Joan Donoghue said.

"Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation," she added.
(...)

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vociferously encouraged voters to approve the referendum, in what political analysts say is a test of government support ahead of planned 2024 presidential elections, rather than a prelude to bellicose action.

The referendum, which is "consultative" and can be approved by simple majority, asks Venezuelans, among other things, if they agree to incorporate the region and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.

The analysts said the referendum will probably be approved, given the lack of any 'no' campaign and the likelihood that voters who are opposed will stay home.

Friday's ruling is the latest development in the larger border dispute. The ICJ said in April it had jurisdiction over the case, but a final ruling could be years away.

World Court orders Venezuela to refrain from action in border dispute with Guyana (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/world-court-orders-venezuela-refrain-action-border-dispute-with-guyana-2023-12-01/)
The "world court" has no enforcement arm, so how does this end up as anything but a load of noise?
Concur with the terrain by caiman27 (https://www.pprune.org/members/191863-caiman27).
Not sure about Venezuelan army readiness: not sure if we'll find out either.

ORAC: are you sure Brazil wants to fight over this?

And lastly: Where is OAS in all of this?

[DaveReidUK]

Plus they have Russia’s backing militarily and politically in this wonderful new ‘anti-white bloc’ world order that Russia envisions.

I can't see military backing from Russia amounting to much, given its other current commitments.

[Countdown begins]

It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs.
The UK has no responsibility for Guyana's defence. If this kicks off the only task that might possibly involve UK forces would be if Embassy staff needed emergency evacuation.
You seem at odds with the facts and the experienced that have been in harms way.
Forget Flight Sim, have you any aviation experience to bring us?

[langleybaston]

You seem at odds with the facts and the experienced that have been in harms way.
Forget Flight Sim, have you any aviation experience to bring us?

Not relevant to the points that VM makes, and a cheap shot re Flight Sim or otherwise is not called for. This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.

[Countdown begins]

Not relevant to the points that VM makes, and a cheap shot re Flight Sim or otherwise is not called for. This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.
Yet again, Langley, you seem to think you are the POO. Clearly, in this instance of confusion, you have missed that exact point.
let’s keep the church out of it, let’s consider who is chatting to who. Understand?

[Atlasisrubbish]

Yet again, Langley, you seem to think you are the POO. Clearly, in this instance of confusion, you have missed that exact point.
let’s keep the church out of it, let’s consider who is chatting to who. Understand?
Politely put, CD.

[Video Mixdown]

You seem at odds with the facts and the experienced that have been in harms way.
Forget Flight Sim, have you any aviation experience to bring us?
There was no call for that. You are correct that I was not aircrew, but Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time. It served the UK very well, but that was in the past and I would not want to see RAF/RN pilots sent into combat in an aircraft that is clearly outdated by today's standards. Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.

[langleybaston]

Yet again, Langley, you seem to think you are the POO. Clearly, in this instance of confusion, you have missed that exact point.
let’s keep the church out of it, let’s consider who is chatting to who. Understand?

Do please educate me on the exact point. I can handle longer sentences and longer words.

Try starting with: "the exact point is" and take it from there.

[Atlasisrubbish]

There was no call for that. You are correct that I was not aircrew, but Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time. It served the UK very well, but that was in the past and I would not want to see RAF/RN pilots sent into combat in an aircraft that is clearly outdated by today's standards. Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.
GR9
’It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs’
Not a great , informed or otherwise, statement from someone who then pleads ignorance of their remarks… because they they know absolutely nothing about it, it would seem.
Weatherboy, same for you.

[Countdown begins]

There was no call for that. You are correct that I was not aircrew, but Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time. It served the UK very well, but that was in the past and I would not want to see RAF/RN pilots sent into combat in an aircraft that is clearly outdated by today's standards. Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve.
GR9
’It's obsolete and in a scrapyard where it belongs’
Not a great , informed or otherwise, statement from someone who then pleads ignorance of their remarks… because they they know absolutely nothing about it, it would seem.
Weatherboy, same for you.

‘Weatherboy!’! Now that is particularly funny, some outgrow their use, some remain in their swim lane…. Some just don’t.

[Lonewolf_50]

We were all happier when ignorant and ill-informed, Speak for yourself.
Harrier in its various forms from GR.1 to GR.9 formed an important part of my work throughout my time in the RAF, and nobody admired its achievements, capabilities and pilots more at the time.{snip} Engineer/maintenance? Nor would I want scarce defence funds to be spent keeping it in service when the money is needed for the modern equipment that they deserve. Our Marines got a lot of use out of the Harrier. While it's a bit long in the tooth at this point, a few of them are still in active service.
VMA 231 and 223 are still flying them.
USMC and Italian Navy AV-8Bs are being replaced by the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II), with the former expected to operate its Harriers until 2025.
Starting in 2007, Spain was looking to replace its Harrier IIs—with the likely option being the F-35B. The Spanish government, in May 2014 however, announced that it had decided to extend the aircraft's service life to beyond 2025 due to a lack of funds for a replacement aircraft. I realize those aren't UK Harriers, but some Harriers have a way to go before the boneyard summons.
If it is a republic, "nothing to see here, move on please". Speak for yourself.

Back to the Venezuelan saber rattling: not sure if it's just noise or a case of "we'll see what we can get away with" ...

[fdr]

Re Venezuelan vs Brazilian AF, would be interesting to see how unsupported F16s geo against just a handful of JAS39's, the Su's are used toot being maintained. Airlift wise Brazil has it all over V.

[tdracer]

I doubt many Venezuelans - outside of those in power - are more interested in Guyana than where their next meal is coming from.
Classic political ploy to distract the people rather than allowing them to focus on what the real problems are.

[rattman]

ORAC: are you sure Brazil wants to fight over this?



It seems more like we dont want you coming through our territory thing. THey aren't going to attack V

[RomeoAlphaMike]

Another thread derailed by old farts reminiscing about Harrier.

Like clockwork.

[mahogany bob]

Langley Baston

This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.

diverse opinions are always welcome - so keep posting!
us Aircrew have broad shoulders!
by the way any idea when this ‘cold snap’ is going to end?

PS wish we still had the ‘great’ Harrier

[chevvron]

by the way any idea when this ‘cold snap’ is going to end?

PS wish we still had the ‘great’ Harrier
In SE England it should get a bit milder tonight.
Should have kept some Harriers at least in storage for 'police operations' like this and Belize, maybe the Falklands where they could operate on some of the outlying islands.
Don't forget USAF keep a small force of F-117s flying for special ops.

[Bob Viking]

Regardless of whether or not the Harrier would have any operational relevance to add to any current or future conflict it is a completely moot point. We do not have the pilots to fly them.

A shed full of Harriers would need to be maintained. That needs engineers. If they were pulled out of the shed and brought up to operational readiness that would require a shed load more engineers.

You would then need pilots. They would need training to fly an aircraft that most of them have never flown.

Those engineers and pilots would need to be drawn from current fleets. Which defeats the whole object.

The same argument holds true for Tornado, Jaguar, Phantom, TSR2 and any other historical type you can think of.

Take me as an example. I last flew a Jaguar in 2007. If the UK ever became desperate enough to need to bring them out of retirement, firstly, that would be a very bad world and secondly it would take me a good few months to get back up to speed and be useful. Thats aside from the fact I am no longer serving. If you took one of my colleagues who used to fly the Jaguar and is still serving, they are all either flying Typhoon, F35, helicopters or a desk.

BV

[T28B]

BV has hit the nail squarely upon its head.
I will suggest a return to the topic of a possible military operation in the Guayana/Venezuela/Brazil region (with hopefully some focus on the air assets of those in the region).
That would align with this thread remaining of interest to "the broad church".

Warmest regards to all (yes, it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere :})
T28B

[Spunky Monkey]

There are two ways to move through the jungle - by boat or in a helicopter.
On foot is Jost not possible by more than a mile or two per day.
So the Vs would only really likely be able to attack along any Highways or along the coast.
A surprise attack is highly unlikely as crossing the boarder in force would be quickly swallowed up and give time for neighbouring nations (USA) the opportunity to apply a great deal of external pressure, even our own warship would be able to greatly hinder a costal hoping incursion.

In my past career, I was a Jungle Warfare Instructor and have served in this region, including training aircrew survival techniques. Much of the area along the coast is secondary jungle and almost impenetrable. A small defending force could hold up a larger army or poorly equipped troops indefinitely.

This is a political distraction technique.

[langleybaston]

‘Weatherboy!’! Now that is particularly funny, some outgrow their use, some remain in their swim lane…. Some just don’t.

I really like "Weatherboy!" The last time I was called that was when I was appointed P Met O 1 Group and Supervisor of Met. Training for aircrew [except rotary]. The nickname stems from the post having hitherto been filled by 55 year-olds, and I was a mere 43, younger than most of my team.
Weatherboy indeed.

[ORAC]

Google Maps have put a line through the middle of Guyana representing the 60% of the country that Venezuela claims in its upcoming 'referendum'...

Just checked, still there.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1436/image_67b8bbc20d9e43fe9086d902e2fa39fbdd6e8f8b.png

[Big Pistons Forever]

Folks, I can’t stress this enough.

If the US ‘does not’ intervene in any Venezuelan invasion of Guyana, Guyana and Brazil are ‘going’ to be steamrolled by the Venezuelan military.

The Venezuelan Air Force is simply qualitatively and quantitively superior to the Brazilian Air Force; the Venezuelan Army has a qualitative edge over the larger Brazilian Army (which can’t even supply its troops that far north because Brazil’s railheads terminate well south of Guyana — while Venezuela shares a land border with Guyana); and Brazil’s Navy is ‘extremely’ vulnerable to strikes from the Venezuelan Air Force.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1125/image_41528ee3bceb6e9ab2f835b045dd8aa7bb5ba69a.png

The Russian military was supposed to be world class and a peer competitor. The reality was very different. The Venezuelan military is just like Russia with senior leadership chosen for fealty to the President, not military competence. That combined with institutional kleptocracy will ensure they are combat ineffective at every level.

[fdr]

In SE England it should get a bit milder tonight.
Should have kept some Harriers at least in storage for 'police operations' like this and Belize, maybe the Falklands where they could operate on some of the outlying islands.
Don't forget USAF keep a small force of F-117s flying for special ops.

-2C, @15:00... Oxford. The UK..land of warm beer, cold women and freezing fog as the Germans would say, which makes their interest in moving borders westwards back in the bad days all the more perplexing.

:}

Hope my Brexit irritation isn't showing...


.

[chevvron]

-2C, @15:00...

.
BBC Woking @2100 gives -2C now, 0C at 2300 and +4C by 0500.

[pr00ne]

The in theatre RN warship can no doubt evacuate embassy staff, dependents, etc if required.

Otherwise we have nothing military to contribute to this situation, the cupboard is bare - and one has to ask the question why should we.

We are no longer a world power and haven't been for some considerable time.

The cupboard is NOT bare, we have plenty to contribute to this situation, and we would because we have a Commonwealth liability...

[Asturias56]

"The cupboard is NOT bare, we have plenty to contribute to this situation"

Lets hope the contribution arrives quickly - a small amount of prevention (See Belize) beats a late response (the FI)

[sycamore]

Well,we could send a few Gazelles,maybe a couple of `Chinnys`,even the Arrows ,(for `winter training),and call it 1310 Flight again,as was in`65/`66...oh,,and a couple of C-130s from Cambridge.....to help the GDF....HHA could supply a few Hunters as well...add an A400 ,for `noise`accompaniment`..JOB DONE...

[SASless]

Considering the Order of Battle of the UK forces today and current overseas commitments.....just what is there to send....and how do you propose to get it there in a timely fashion and be Ops Ready upon arrival?

Not trying to start a bun fight....just asking a legitimate question.

What force mix does this situation require and how long would the UK be able to fund the forces to be deployed?

If you inject Operational Security you are only avoiding the question as this is all hypothetical.

Anything in storage in Arizona the RAF could bring back on line or was the contingency planning limited to just sending the Aircraft and associated stores to the scrap yard?

[Video Mixdown]

Considering the Order of Battle of the UK forces today and current overseas commitments.....just what is there to send....and how do you propose to get it there in a timely fashion and be Ops Ready upon arrival?
Not trying to start a bun fight....just asking a legitimate question.
What force mix does this situation require and how long would the UK be able to fund the forces to be deployed?
If you inject Operational Security you are only avoiding the question as this is all hypothetical.
Anything in storage in Arizona the RAF could bring back on line or was the contingency planning limited to just sending the Aircraft and associated stores to the scrap yard?
I think you are indeed trying to start a bunfight by going out of your way to sneer at the UK. Does it make you feel big and tough?

[West Coast]

I think you are indeed trying to start a bunfight by going out of your way to sneer at the UK. Does it make you feel big and tough?

Questioning the political commitment of your government, the capabilities along with timeliness of a response by the UK is hardly seeking out a bun fight. I ask those same questions of my government/military, that hardly makes it controversial.

[Video Mixdown]

Questioning the political commitment of your government, the capabilities along with timeliness of a response by the UK is hardly seeking out a bun fight. I ask those same questions of my government/military, that hardly makes it controversial.
To pose such questions is entirely legitimate. To sneer and denigrate unfairly is not.

[dctyke]

Langley Baston

This forum is a broad church, otherwise I and many others would not be here or hereabouts.

diverse opinions are always welcome - so keep posting!
us Aircrew have broad shoulders!
by the way any idea when this ‘cold snap’ is going to end?

PS wish we still had the ‘great’ Harrier

extinct in U.K. sadly. Luckily we still have the Marsh, Hen and Montegues…………😉

[Ninthace]

Considering the Order of Battle of the UK forces today and current overseas commitments.....just what is there to send....and how do you propose to get it there in a timely fashion and be Ops Ready upon arrival?

Not trying to start a bun fight....just asking a legitimate question.

What force mix does this situation require and how long would the UK be able to fund the forces to be deployed?

If you inject Operational Security you are only avoiding the question as this is all hypothetical.

Anything in storage in Arizona the RAF could bring back on line or was the contingency planning limited to just sending the Aircraft and associated stores to the scrap yard?
It is not just a question of what but also where. Without a carrier, the only option is to base your force in someone else's backyard. That requires quite a few please and thankyous these days.

[Jimlad1]

Its worth noting to the usual "we're useless now and if only it was the past" brigade, who, as usual, are out in force here, that the UK has never had any strategic interest in defending against this sort of scenario. I've crawled through a lot of papers on defence planning from 50s -70s and this scenario never once featured in planners assumptions for contingency planning. People seem to be moaning that we don't have the ability to intervene in a situation we've spent roughly 70 years assuming we wouldn't get involved in anyway...

[Video Mixdown]

It is not just a question of what but also where. Without a carrier, the only option is to base your force in someone else's backyard. That requires quite a few please and thankyous these days.
Care to explain why you think neither carrier could deploy if necessary?

[Ninthace]

Is either yet in a position to deploy with sufficient and appropriate forces and with no support from other nations?

[langleybaston]

Care to explain why you think neither carrier could deploy if necessary?

As in cannot be in two places at the same time and presumably where they are currently was deemed not trivial?
Not to mention that "a carrier" on its own is as much a liability as an asset.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/venezuela-referendum-2023-results-guyana-region-claim-succeeds-sovereignty-essequibo

Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana

Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/03/tensions-rise-as-venezuelans-vote-on-disputed-territory-in-neighbouring-guyana) an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.

Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters…..

Venezuelan voters were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries.

“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after the results were announced, before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.

Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centres in Caracas. Reuters witnesses visited voting centres across the country – many had few or no people waiting in line. In Maracaibo, in the oil-rich state of Zulia, poll workers told Reuters that turnout was low.

Still, before the 12-hour voting window was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority official, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation”.

Participation of more than 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in 2012….

Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, ICJ president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggested it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute”.

“Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said….

[Lonewolf_50]

For ORAC: heh, for once they "listen to their voters"
Vox populi!
It is not just a question of what but also where. Without a carrier, the only option is to base your force in someone else's backyard. That requires quite a few please and thankyous these days. Perhaps in Surinam? I recall working with a Dutch Air Force major years ago whose family was originally from there. Is there an air base there? NATO allies helping one another, perhaps?
I've crawled through a lot of papers on defence planning from 50s -70s and this scenario never once featured in planners assumptions for contingency planning. People seem to be moaning that we don't have the ability to intervene in a situation we've spent roughly 70 years assuming we wouldn't get involved in anyway... Then again, the Americans in '83 had no plan for what to do about Grenada, and cobbled together an op plan in something less than four days. Yes, it was a lot closer to our homeland ... but I suppose it could be managed...with a little help from your friends.
Is either yet in a position to deploy with sufficient and appropriate forces and with no support from other nations? As Ringo Starr once intoned: Oh, I get by with a little help from my friends" - I think the US would probably offer some help to get a UK op up and running.
Biden doesn't have Obama's Anglophobic streak in him, and Maduro (like Chavez before him) is mostly a pain in the butt, foreign policy wise, for the folks in Washington.

[SASless]

The votes have been counted and the people have approved the taking of Guyana by Venezuela.

Does the 1899 Treaty no longer remain valid?

Will this lead to War and see the end of Guyana as we know it?

Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?

Does the Biden Administration hold to the Monroe Doctrine or just beg for cheap oil?

Does any of this really matter?


https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuela-approves-referendum-take-over-neighboring-oil-rich-essequibo-region-controlled-guyana

[Lonewolf_50]

Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?
Probably Citgo.

[Chugalug2]

LW50 :-
Then again, the Americans in '83 had no plan for what to do about Grenada, and cobbled together an op plan in something less than four days. Yes, it was a lot closer to our homeland ... but I suppose it could be managed...with a little help from your friends.

​​​​​​​So which friends helped you to cobble that one together then Lonewolf?

[Tengah Type]

Despite all the gainsayers, this is not a major problem for the UK military. They are certainly all over it at the moment, but
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas

[Lonewolf_50]

LW50 :-


So which friends helped you to cobble that one together then Lonewolf? There was a time when "the special relationship" was such that ease of communication was a thing.
I'd need to check my old notes, but I recall that the special relationship was an asset.

[GlobalNav]

The votes have been counted and the people have approved the taking of Guyana by Venezuela.

Does the 1899 Treaty no longer remain valid?

Will this lead to War and see the end of Guyana as we know it?

Which oil company winds up with the windfall from the "annexation"?

Does the Biden Administration hold to the Monroe Doctrine or just beg for cheap oil?

Does any of this really matter?


https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuela-approves-referendum-take-over-neighboring-oil-rich-essequibo-region-controlled-guyana

Somebody should offer Maduro some Kool-aid. Drink deep.

[Lonewolf_50]

Mr Maduro is doing more or less what is expected of him - following his own inner voice, rather than listening to anyone outside of Venezuela (and particularly nobody in Washington since 2002 or before if we include the Chavez years).
What that means to me is that if the US uses rhetoric to try and convince him that this move into Guyana is not in his interests, someone will have to show him rather than tell him. (And if China tells him "don't" or if Russia tells him "don't' perhaps there would be a different response. Not sure).

A WSJ article on Mister Maduro is probably more US politics-ish, so I'll spoiler it (actually, just an excerpt) but I think it applies to this case in terms of who can apply persuasive means to convince him not to do this.
Apparently, one of the major South American nations, Brazil, isn't going to be heeded in terms of advising him not to do this.


Well, that was predictable. On Nov. 30 the Maduro regime in Venezuela ignored the U.S. deadline to lay out a process to reinstate opposition candidates for a 2024 presidential election.

In return for that Maduro promise, made Oct. 17 with the democratic opposition, the Biden Administration eased sanctions for six months on the export of Venezuelan oil and new investment in the country. The U.S. also lifted bans on dealing with the government-owned mining company and on trading some Venezuelan securities.

At the time Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. had “conveyed our expectation and understanding that” by Nov. 30 Venezuela would “define a specific timeline and process for the expedited reinstatement of all candidates” who had been banned from running. He added that opposition candidates had the right to run on “a level electoral playing field” that includes “freedom of movement” and guarantees of “their physical safety.”

He also said that Venezuela had to “begin the release of all wrongfully detained U.S. nationals and Venezuelan political prisoners.” Mr. Blinken warned that “failure to abide by the terms of this arrangement will lead the United States to reverse steps we have taken.”

The Blinken deadline passed on Thursday. Venezuela released five political prisoners in October but it still holds some 270, including three Americans that the State Department deems wrongfully detained. The regime also hasn’t reinstated banned presidential candidates, including the popular Maria Corina Machado.

[ORAC]

H I Sutton - Covert Shores (http://www.hisutton.com/Venezuelan_Navy_2023.html)

Overview of Venezuelan Navy 2023

[Lonewolf_50]

Men mean more than guns in the rating of a ship.
~ John Paul Jones ~

If we go back into some ancient history, the Argentine San Luis, a type 209, was a capable submarine that was sent to contest the amphibious operation in and around the Falklands.
How well trained that crew was is open to some question, as regards the deployment of the Torpedoes they were armed with. (Atlas Elektronik (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Elektronik))

From a USNI analysis of the patrol of the San Luis ... athough there are a variety of differing versions of these events depending on what one reads...
The War PatrolThe San Luis began her patrol with the intention of striking the task force north of the Falkland Islands. During her one continuous patrol she claimed three torpedo attacks against British shipping. She claimed to have fired two German-manufactured SST-4 antisurface ship torpedoes and one American Mark 37 antisubmarine torpedo.
Her first engagement was against HMS Yarmouth (Type 12 frigate) and HMS Brilliant (Type 22 frigate).
The San Luis’ attack did not result in any hits and she sustained a determined ASW battle for 20 hours, surviving depth charges and one torpedo.
The San Luis broke contact and began her second run on 8 May against a British submarine. Twelve minutes after firing her torpedo, the San Luis heard an explosion from her target’s same bearing; however, the Royal Navy claimed no losses of any submarines during the conflict, and it is speculated that the San Luis’ torpedo may have struck the bottom.
Her final run was conducted on 10 May against two more warships, firing one torpedo against HMS Arrow (Type 21 frigate) and HMS Alacrity (Type 21 frigate).
After six minutes, a small explosion was heard on the frigate’s bearing, and when HMS Arrow retrieved her towed countermeasure, it was evident that she had been hit.
What Went Wrong?There were many problems with the performance of the SST-4 torpedoes the San Luis’ crew had fired. According to a postwar analysis conducted by the U.S. Department of the Navy (https://www.usni.org/apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a133333.pdf) in September 1983:

"The main British Task Force was located and attacked without success by the Type 209, San Luis. That submarine was at sea, and at times in the area of the British force, for an estimated 36 days. The threat from Argentine submarines was a continuous concern for the British Task Force commander, and numerous attacks were made against suspected submarine contacts, with a large number of ASW weapons being expended. In any event, San Luis survived all British ASW efforts, but at the same time was unable to inflict damage on the British force because of materiel problems.”

The submarine has been identified as firing its munitions too deep, having an outdated fire-control system that required the crew to calculate their solutions manually; broken wires after the torpedoes were fired, which denied the ability to steer the fish to their targets; lack of preparation of the SST-4s in the torpedo room’s tubes; which did not allow the torpedoes to arm themselves after firing, and an inexperienced crew.
All these factors combined to allow the targeted ships to escape the San Luis’ attacks. The attacks were poor, but the fact that the San Luis could make these approaches against the best of the Royal Navy shows how different the outcome could have been if the San Luis had been fully provisioned and prepared for combat operations.









While the quoted summary lists "materiel problems" some of those issues were training, readiness, and maintenance related.

So I ask anyone who knows: what's the state of training and readiness of the Venezuelan (Type 209) submarine's crew that may be able to get to sea?
A question worth answering, or having a good answer to.

If Guyana gets no support from other places, or from someone like OAS, Venezuela gets a cake walk if they get organized.
Given that both Venezuela and Guyana are members of OAS, the next meeting will doubtless involve a lot of tooth sucking and extra coffee. :p
From the OAS web site:
The nations of the Americas have overcome their civil wars and bloody conflicts which unfortunately characterized the region for many years. Only one nation today continues to struggle with a conflict within its borders. However, the idea of “peace” extends beyond armed conflicts and is one that the OAS is committed to continue fostering among its member states. Through its many programs, such as the OAS Peace Fund, the Organization is helping to work towards this goal.
The OAS works towards preventing conflicts and resolving disputes through a range of conflict resolution mechanisms including direct negotiation, mediation, judicial settlement and arbitration. So how's that last bit going for you?

[West Coast]

Despite all the gainsayers, this is not a major problem for the UK military. They are certainly all over it at the moment, but
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft;
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas

I think of war through the prism of US capabilities, but would think those long runways would be cratered within the first few hours. Not sure what capabilities Venezuela has to effect that.

[Lonewolf_50]

Despite all the gainsayers, this is not a major problem for the UK military. They are certainly all over it at the moment, but
are not announcing their plans on PPrune, for obvious reasons.
But if you look at what we could do with Victor/:Harriers to Belize and Victors/F4s to the Falkland Islands it should
not be impossible for Voyagers/Typhoon/F35 to Georgetown. After all the runways are 11,250ft long and British Airways
operate B777 from there. So possibly a reasonable capable airfield. We can also probably find a couple of "Daddy Hercules",
aka A400, to carry support crews and some khaki clad bretheren to assist.
Also we have a Flatop in the area, which we could populate with aircraft; But you'd need ground security forces and some air defense to keep that Air Port of Entry into the theater open.
(Yes, I've had to do logistics planning in the dim and distant past). Not sure how robust Host nation is on that score, but if Nutty's opening post is close to the truth, bring your own.
Just in time for "Operation Deny Christmas!!"
Merry Christmas Good call! :ok:
On the US side: starting from going into Somalia, we had Operation Deny Christmas events every year for a few decades somewhere in the world. :p

Back to Venezuela:
How long does it take to get an Amhpibious ready group from, say, Little Creek Virginia, on load a MEU and put an air group on the LHA/LHD/whatever, and bee bop on down to Guyana?
(I have a 'back of the napkin estimate" on hand, but I'll let you all argue about it).
The ARG could possibly sail in company with a certain carrier, with whom our Marine aviators have an existing working, relationship ... Op Deny Christmas indeed!
I'll send cookies.

[SASless]

Crater the runway....pooh!

Motor graders, Bull Dozers, School buses, junk automobiles work a treat for blocking a runway.

Cubans did that in Grenada.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/maduro-venezuela-guyana-essequibo-referendum-vote-turnout

Madero vote to claim Guyana’s territory backfires as Venezuelans stay home

The government of Guyana has breathed a sigh of relief after a referendum intended to rubber-stamp Venezuela’s claim to about two-thirds of the tiny South American country’s territory appeared to have backfired.

Nicolás Maduro had hoped to leverage his country’s century-long claim (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/01/venezuela-oil-guyana-essequibo-vote-nicolas-maduro) to the disputed Essequibo region to mobilise public support but voting stations across the country were largely quiet on Sunday as most voters shunned the issue.….

Venezuela’s government has said that more than 10.5 million people voted in the referendum – which would be a higher number than voted to re-elect Maduro’s more popular predecessor, Hugo Chávez, in 2012. Venezuela’s electoral authority said it had extended the voting window on Sunday evening due to “massive participation”.

The government figures have been widely scrutinised, however, given that analysts say they do not correspond with the scenes at voting stations. (https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/lo-que-deja-referendo-venezuela-expertos-saltan-alarmas-psuv-esequibo-en-riesgo-/7382590.html) “They haven’t admitted it explicitly but it’s obvious [they rigged the results],” Gunson said.

An image purported to have been shared and later deleted by Venezuela’s electoral authority showed a table with about 2 million votes for each of the five questions, suggesting that they tallied the number of votes rather than voters to spin the public relations disaster.

The Venezuelan government has not published any detailed or regional results, adding to doubts around their validity. “If the government stands by their claim that this is a massive success they should have no difficulty in publishing the breakdown of votes,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“This is a massive PR disaster for Maduro. They’ve been firing the propaganda machine on all cylinders for months but despite their best efforts turnout is way below what we expected,” he added.

Intelligence collected by Guyana and its allies suggest the actual turnout was fewer than 1.5 million people – less than a 10th of the population – said a source close to the Guyanese government who described the move as “rigonomics”.

“I think Maduro miscalculated in a very, very big way,” the source added….

[Asturias56]

H I Sutton - Covert Shores (http://www.hisutton.com/Venezuelan_Navy_2023.html)

Overview of Venezuelan Navy 2023

Not exactly impressive

[ORAC]

Hopefully the rest of their forces on a par..

[Lonewolf_50]

Hope is not a method.
As to the election, I guess we'd need to dig into the laws in Venezuela to see what level of participation does, or does not, constitute a valid referendum.
I don't know, does anyone?

I lamented recently the problem of a recent referendum in our district/county; the voter turn out was just over 10% but the measure still passed or failed regardless of how many showed up.
Whomever showed up to vote made the difference.

[Biggus]

Latest from a UK newspaper:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-guyana-takeover-mines-oil-gas-exploit#:~:text=Venezuelan%20president%20Nicol%C3%A1s%20Madu ro%20has,Venezuela%20claims%20as%20its%20own.

[Lonewolf_50]

Latest from a UK newspaper:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-guyana-takeover-mines-oil-gas-exploit#:~:text=Venezuelan%20president%20Nicol%C3%A1s%20Madu ro%20has,Venezuela%20claims%20as%20its%20own. Thanks for the link, source noted. On Sunday Venezuelans approved a referendum called by Maduro to claim sovereignty over Essequibo.

Venezuela has long argued the territory, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana (https://www.theguardian.com/world/guyana), was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.

Guyana has denounced the referendum as pretext to annex the land. It had appealed to the International Court of Justice, the United Nations’ top court, which on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action to change the status quo until the panel can rule on the two countries’ competing claims, which could take years. I guess that the referendum passed, and the ICOJ is sitting there having coffee and discussing the esoterica of international law. :p

[SASless]

Well that confirms it if the Guardian has spoken.

[MechEngr]

Guyana needs to hold a referendum of its own, annexing Venezuela.

[Lonewolf_50]

Guyana needs to hold a referendum of its own, annexing Venezuela. While that got a laugh out of me, :} not sure they will be able to organize a referendum on short notice.

[fdr]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/04/venezuela-referendum-2023-results-guyana-region-claim-succeeds-sovereignty-essequibo

Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana

Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/03/tensions-rise-as-venezuelans-vote-on-disputed-territory-in-neighbouring-guyana) an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.

Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters…..

Venezuelan voters were asked whether they support establishing a state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, granting citizenship to current and future residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ top court in settling the disagreement between the South American countries.

“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after the results were announced, before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.

Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centres in Caracas. Reuters witnesses visited voting centres across the country – many had few or no people waiting in line. In Maracaibo, in the oil-rich state of Zulia, poll workers told Reuters that turnout was low.

Still, before the 12-hour voting window was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority official, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation”.

Participation of more than 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in 2012….

Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, ICJ president Joan E Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggested it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute”.

“Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said….

surprised it wasn't 50 million voting yes out of 20 million voters.

Maguro seems to have messed up his math.

P.S.: I can't see.Brazil, UK, USA or the UN sitting back and letting Maduro do a land grab that impacts both sovereignty that is established by recognised treaty, and that includes hydrocarbons.

Assume that as a dicktater, Maduro sees this as a popularity win, trading his troops lives for jungle and a fleeting hope to have more of the orinoco flow.

[tdracer]

surprised it wasn't 50 million voting yes out of 20 million voters.

Maguro seems to have messed up his math.

P.S.: I can't see.Brazil, UK, USA or the UN sitting back and letting Maduro do a land grab that impacts both sovereignty that is established by recognised treaty, and that includes hydrocarbons.

Assume that as a dicktater, Maduro sees this as a popularity win, trading his troops lives for jungle and a fleeting hope to have more of the orinoco flow.
The strange thing to me is, since when has a "popular" vote of people in one country been recognized as justification for the invasion and forced takeover/annexation of another sovereign country? Heck, Hitler didn't even bother asking the people if they wanted to invade Poland (or Russia, France, et.al.). He just did it, then claimed it was for the good of the people.

[Lonewolf_50]

Posturing is a thing.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/venezuela-to-pass-law-to-annex-territory-in-guyana-0stlw02zv)

President Maduro of Venezuela has said his government will soon pass a law to formally incorporate a territory in neighbouring Guyana. He has also appointed an army general to oversee the annexed region.

The move follows a referendum in Venezuela on Sunday, in which Maduro’s government sought support for a historic claim, going back almost two centuries, over part of Guyana known as the Essequibo. The vote received overwhelming support, although there have been widespread allegations that the official figure of a high turnout was wildly exaggerated.

The International Court of Justice had ruled that Venezuela should refrain from taking any action to change the status quo in the region.

In a television address, Maduro said the region was “de facto occupied by the British Empire and its heirs”. He insisted he wanted a “peaceful rescue of the region”. State media has released a new map of Venezuela, moving its frontier with Guyana as much as 165 miles to the east.

Guyana is calling for international support following the statements, which its president, Irfaan Ali, said represented “a direct threat to the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Guyana”. He said he plans to take the matter to the United Nations security council.

“The Guyana Defence Force is on full alert and has engaged its military counterparts, including the US Southern Command. By defying the [International Court of Justice], Venezuela has rejected international law, the rule of law generally, fundamental justice and morality, and the preservation of international peace and security. They have literally declared themselves an outlaw nation,” he said.

Maduro also announced the creation of a military division to serve the territory, which will be initially based in the Venezuela town of Tumeremo, about 45 miles from the border with Guyana.

He has told the Venezuelan state oil company to immediately begin granting operating licences for the exploitation of crude oil, gas and mines in the neighbouring region.

Guyana and Venezuela have agreed to keep communication channels open over the territorial dispute.
Analysts have said Maduro’s statements remain in the realm of bravado, or even fantasy, as the unpopular leader who has overseen the world’s steepest recession over the past decade, attempts to shore up what little remains of his popular support. “Reality check: Maduro still needs a visa to visit Essequibo,” tweeted Phil Gunson, a consultant from the think tank Crisis Group.


In 2015, the US oil giant ExxonMobil made a series of massive oil discoveries off the coast of Guyana, in an area which Venezuela says is the maritime extension of its sovereign territory. Production of the oil, which began in 2019, is set to transform the former British colony. Last year its economy expanded by 63 per cent, making it the fastest growing in the world. Guyana’s population is just 800,000.

“We will not allow our territory to be violated, nor for the development of our country to be hindered by this desperate threat,” said Ali.

The Brazilian army said it was reinforcing its presence in the northern cities of Pacaraima and Boa Vista as part of efforts “to guarantee the inviolability of the territory”.

The United States was keeping an eye on mounting tensions, the White House said. John Kirby, National Security Council spokesman, said: “We obviously don’t want to see any violence occur here or conflict occur.”

The boundary dispute has its roots in the early 19th century, when the newly independent Venezuela protested that its neighbouring colony, British Guyana, had encroached on its land by drawing a frontier far to the west of the Essequibo river.

In 1899 an international arbitration committee, made up of five judges — two from Britain, two from the United States and one from Russia — agreed on a new boundary, which was close to the one claimed by the British. The Venezuelan side initially accepted the decision but later suggested that the British had bribed the Russian judge.

[ORAC]

Guyana going to the UN Security Council and reaching out to the Commonwealth and allies for assistance, in particular the USA, Brazil, France and the UK….

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1732492715143664056?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

[Chugalug2]

There was a time when "the special relationship" was such that ease of communication was a thing.
I'd need to check my old notes, but I recall that the special relationship was an asset.

It would seem that "the special relationship" at the time (the US invasion of Grenada) reflected its usual form as seen from this side of the pond, LW50 :-

A recorded conversation between an apologetic Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher over the invasion of Grenada has been published for the first time.

"We regret very much the embarrassment that's been caused to you," the US leader said during the call.

Baroness Thatcher was angered that she was not consulted before the Americans invaded a Commonwealth state.

United States troops were sent to Grenada in 1983 to topple the Caribbean island's Marxist regime.

While US forces were still in action, the president phoned Lady Thatcher to explain the action he had taken.

"If I were there, Margaret," he said, "I'd throw my hat in the door before I came in."

The saying refers to a Civil War-era practice in which a visitor might throw his hat into a room before entering - if he was unwelcome, it might be thrown out again or even shot at.

"There's no need for that," Lady Thatcher replied.


Reagan's apology to Thatcher over Grenada revealed - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29986729)

Sorry about the delay in replying to your post #67. Events, dear boy, events!

[fdr]

While that got a laugh out of me, :} not sure they will be able to organize a referendum on short notice.


Guyana's referendum came in with 2.5 billion votes for annexing Caracas, and turning Mr Madero into head WC janitor at Angel falls. That is an overwhelming vote considering the population is 800,000 and only 350,000 have the vote..

[WhatsaLizad?]

Guyana's referendum came in with 2.5 billion votes for annexing Caracas, and turning Mr Madero into head WC janitor at Angel falls. That is an overwhelming vote considering the population is 800,000 and only 350,000 have the vote..

Capuchin monkeys voted, notorious ballot box stuffers if properly bribed with treats.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/07/guyana-venezuela-land-dispute-us-britain-support

US to conduct flights within Guyana amid Venezuela territorial dispute

The United States has said it would conduct flight operations within Guyana that build on its routine engagement, as Britain and Brazil expressed concerns about growing border tensions between Guyana and Venezuela…

Brazil’s army intelligence has detected a buildup of Venezuelan armed forces near the Guyana border, according to a senior military source.

The US Southern Command, which provides security cooperation in Latin America, will conduct flight operations with the Guyanese military within Guyana on Thursday, the US embassy in Georgetown said in a statement.

“This exercise builds upon routine engagement and operations to enhance [the] security partnership between the United States and Guyana, and to strengthen regional cooperation,” it said.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, spoke with Ali late on Wednesday and reaffirmed the unwavering US support for Guyana’s sovereignty, the state department has said.

Analysts and sources in Caracas have said the referendum was an effort by Maduro to show strength and gauge his government’s support ahead of the 2024 election, rather than representing a real likelihood of military action.

Maduro’s government on Wednesday arrested opposition figure Roberto Abdul for alleged treason connected to the referendum and said warrants were also out for three staff members at the campaign of opposition presidential nominee María Corina Machado (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/21/venezuela-oppostion-election-2024-nicolas-maduro-maria-corina-machado).

A lawyer for Machado’s party has said the staff always acted correctly.

A US state department spokesperson said it was aware of the arrest orders and “closely monitoring the situation”.

[Archimedes]

This has a slight hint of this about it...

https://youtu.be/1gjln4gaeeg?si=5Y8GpVvEzm6OYBcL&t=180

[Lonewolf_50]

It would seem that "the special relationship" at the time (the US invasion of Grenada) reflected its usual form as seen from this side of the pond, LW50 :-

Reagan's apology to Thatcher over Grenada revealed - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29986729) I will guess that RR was pretty secure that he'd not get too much push back from MT given the US support to UK over the Falklands the previous year. ;) I also suspect that (1) he figured that it's simpler to ask forgiveness after than to ask permission before and (2) the OPSEC considerations for a 'rapid forming of a JTF and implementation of an OP Plan' favored the latter.
FWIW: Operation Urgent Fury was for many years used as a case study for how JTF's come into being and some of the highs and lows of how that process works, as was the later Operation Just Cause in Panama. I was in the fleet as an operational sort, not a staff sort, in both cases but it wasn't my detachment that ended up in either of those ops.
Capuchin monkeys voted, notorious ballot box stuffers if properly bribed with treats. As can various citizens ... I'll stop there. :p

On a related note, analysis here on where US policy in the Western Hemisphere needs to adapt (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2023-12-03/america-s-best-strategy-for-cold-war-ii-the-200-year-old-monroe-doctrine).

[SASless]

More than just flight operations....seems a whole kit bag of training, equipment, and other assets getting involved.

Assuming the information being released is accurate anyway.

A For What It Worth....the skies around my place have been buzzing of late....with sounds of live fire training going on along with increased air operations.

There is a large USMC presence in my neck of the woods.

The tempo seems normal for end of work ups when a MEU deploys.

https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2023/12/08/pentagon-holds-joint-exercises-with-guyana-as-socialist-venezuela-threatens-invasion/

[Lonewolf_50]

i wonder if the saber rattling was in aid of this, or if it was its own thing. (Headline, details in a variety of articles on the web). U.S. releases Maduro ally in exchange for 10 Americans imprisoned in Venezuela

[Heidhurtin]

I'm not sure how effective a River Class would be, and with an endurance of 35 days (Wiki) and unable to dock, how long it can stay there, but at least it shows some support. These vessels can operate Merlin, but are they normally deployed with one?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67806227

[ORAC]

Video…

https://x.com/sa_defensa/status/1740442563218477375?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Venezuelan President Maduro is ordering that the Venezuelan military conduct “defensive actions” against the Royal Navy’s HMS Trent while it visits Guyana.

[Lonewolf_50]

You can't make this shi!t up. Pure comedy gold.