Industry Observations - Pilot Shortage Coming or Not?

[Java]

Quick One, there seems an incredibly large amount of recruiting going on. QF haven't stopped for quite a while, Virgin Blue have been and are just about to get going again, and from what I hear there seems to be quite a few pilots being picked up by several Airlines. Also Cathay, Emirates, Qatar seem to be recruiting aswell.

My question is, do you think there is a pilot shortage coming, if these airlines keep recruiting the way they are. Don't forget that QF seem to be recieving new aircraft gradually over the next 8 years. SIA may come in domestically, and Virgin may go International next year.

Will there be a huge pilot shortage down the bottom in GA soon or am I just thinking wishfully???


cheers

Java

[Split Flap]

Not in a million years my friend.

Sure the airlines may have to be slightly less picky but have you been to a flying school lately? There pumping them out like never before!

[Piper Arrow]

Never a shortage, pilots are a dime a dozen here in Australia. :eek: :eek: :eek:

[Ozgrade3]

I don't believe the flying schools are pumping them out like never before, BK has never been quieter, thinking back to the late 80's when I stated mny training, youhad to book an aircraft and instructor 3 weeks ahead and you'd often wait for ages just to get into the runup bays. Sure a few big schools and colleges might be doing a lot, but the rest of the industry is quiet.

[wingnutt]

I find it hard to believe that the schools are pumping more students out than even five years ago. With the cost of flying now, the cr@ppy dollar, bigger landing charges and fees for just about everything, surely its turning a few people away.

And with the possible CASR changes with their increased experience requirements it makes you wonder if there will be an increased rate af attrition as it becomes much harder for a fresh pilot to get a start.

Not saying that this will neccasarily result in a pilot shortage, the void will probably be filled with cadets like the rest of the world, but it does make you wonder what GA will be like.

In the meantime, we remain steadily over the barrell ......

:eek: :(

The Nutt

[awetzel]

Training organisations will always tell you there is a pilot shortage to keep their businesses going.

If we can get more aviation businesses going like transport and freight to create a need for newly trained pilots then you’re not wasting your money on training. There are still heaps of fully trained pilots out of work but no where to go.

If you’re going to learn to fly do it for the fun of it as a private pilot. We need to crank up the old fly clubs again and bring the fun of recreational flying back into GA and the local community. The AUF have taken what use to be General Aviations main strength of social and recreational flying.

;) ;) ;)

[Piz Buin]

Never has been and there never will be a shortage of pilots. Supply and demand just changes the available quality of pilots over time. ;)

[oldhasbeen]

Which will become very apparent if and when SQ start up.
Watch the phones start ringing then!!

[Piper Arrow]

You have to be kidding there will be a pilot shortage when SIA start up? If you have a look around the world, at how many airlines have shut shop, and including Australia, which would tell you there are a lot of pilots out of work. :eek: :eek: :eek: :rolleyes:

[Split Flap]

To answer the original question.

Not.

[Aviation_sl#t]

g'day

One flying school (no names) that could be refered to `pumping `em out' still has the same commercial pilot brochure as when there was a shortage (a few years ago). It went along the lines of `there is no better time' refering to how many of their pilots were getting employed in the G.A. companies because of the movement in the industry....

Maybe there is a shortage, you just have to think laterally and realize you may not be flying aeroplanes when you get your first job in the industry.


AS.

[NoseGear]

Lots of things are coming, Christmas, the weekend, my wife (hopefully!)

But no pilot shortage, never has and probably never will be a shortage. To get to the top has always been a long, hard road and it will always be so.

Nosey
:D :D

[otaio]

A true fact for you pilots out there.

In the last 6 months the charter company I work for has received 170 unsolicited cv's and applications for jobs.

We have not advertised for a pilot in as long as my filing system goes back.

No, there is no shortage and I would not expect one in Gods life time.

Blame Top Gun for that.

[Up and Away Again]

Yeah, I still remember that movie, it should be banned :)

[Grivation]

I'm not sure if CASA publishes similar statistics but the JAA and the UK CAA have released figures showing the number of initial instrument rating issues + renewals (a fairly good indicator of active professional licences) is substantially down and has been for the last 8 months or so.

In fact they are down so far that the number issued this year won't cover the estimated retirements in the same period. If this trend continues - we may well have a pilot sh.......... no I won't say it!

[Java]

Sorry for bringing this one back to the top, but in the light of another thread over on the general aviation forum by 'Diamond', I wanted to see if anyone wanted to add anything.
This other person 'Diamond' seems to think that there is a shortage of G II and G I instrutors. They also said that student numbers are down and one contributing factor is the cost of learning to fly.

Maybe there will not be a shortage of pilots in the next year or two, but if student numbers continue to drop the way it has been reported, then surely in the next 4 to 5 years there could be a real problem with pilot numbers. Especially if more young people opt for uni or tafe courses in areas such as IT, and even accounting and business finance where there have been shortages in recent years.

I know flying is great, but are the harsh realities of life such as financial security going to take its toll on the aviation industry. I know you say keep trying etc, etc ,etc but eventually you have to say sometimes, yeah I love to fly, but hey I have got other responsibilities and I have to be realistic.


I just seem to think that this industry seems so different to 10 years ago when I first flew, society has changed, economies have changed. Aviation is facing greater pressures than ever before, I really hope there is a future for this industry, but I fear with global pressures, more competitive markets and CASA more people maybe put off this as a viable career.

What's your thoughts.


Cheers

Java