Air Defender 23 - commercial aviation implications

[davidjohnson6]

Many will be aware of NATO's rather large military exercises planned to take place over multiple areas of Germany during 12-23 June 2023. A basic press release can be found at https://ac.nato.int/archive/2023/AD23_announcement
Germany ATC have published some maps at https://www.dfs.de/homepage/de/medien/ifr-vfr-informationen/vfr-informationen/aip-sup-militaerische-uebung-air-defender-2023/
It's clear that this exercise will be rather larger than previous years, and some areas of German airspace are expected to be closed or restricted. I'm aware military flying is Monday-Friday only and in each exercises zone, airspace will be closed for a limited number of hours per day.

Would anybody who's actively involved in mass flight planning / operations be able to give an opinion on how this will affect COMMERCIAL NOT MILITARY flights - be it cancellations, delays, etc. I'm aware that major airlines and airports in Europe have been very quiet on the topic, and the only public comment by those working in commercial aviation has been people appearing to cover their backsides.
Will flights that substantially pass over Germany (but do not land) likely be cancelled ? Is German ATC realistically able to handle this without lots of images of people stuck in airports making the headlines ? Other related questions that are worthy of discussion ?

Note - please don't turn this into a NATO good/bad debate, a discussion of whether EU261 compensation applies, or into anything else that should be in Jet Blast. I'm interested in what European aviation will or won't be able to do - not a blame game.

[NudgingSteel]

I can only comment in general terms about these sorts of events. I haven't seen the Germany info. Sounds like a fairly routine situation for flight planners, with large sections of an airspace region closed (usually this happens with ATC strikes, or ATC equipment failures, various military exercises, significant weather - this one is of course a short-notice situation - and so on). They will usually plan to fly around the affected airspace, assuming the upper level of the closure prevents them flying over the top.

As an example, a Denmark - Italy flight might (and bear in mind this is simply a general example) choose to file to the west of German airspace and route via the Netherlands, Belgium, Fance / Switzerland, Italy. Or perhaps go east via Poland - Austria - Italy. The advantage being that they can still operate the flight. The disadvantages being the extra distance, fuel burn, time and so on. Also, adjacent FIRs will become more congested during the closure times and might have flow restrictions applied, which adds to the potential for delays.

It's more an inconvenience than a major problem for the airlines; it's something which happens on an extremely regular basis and they are well used to dealing with re-routes. Eurocontrol does a pretty good job of managing these sorts of route disruptions especially when everyone's had plenty of notice to plan for them, and such closures happen regularly and generally unnoticed by the travelling public (save for perhaps an increased wait for pushback on a slot time).
No idea if any airports are located within notified sections of airspace due to close, but they would probably have either pre-approved routes in and out, or individual coordinations with military ATC to ensure they could continue to operate. In practise I'm sure the airspace closure won't cover any major airports, to limit such disruption anyway.

[SWBKCB]

As it's all quiet, presumably this has had little impact on air travel?

[Rutan16]

Probably the best place to find out about this and other military stuff is via Scramble a Dutch aviation society -They specialise in all things NATO related and have for years .

[SWBKCB]

Doesn't cover the impact on air transport - presumably it has been minimal.

[Rutan16]

Doesn't cover the impact on air transport - presumably it has been minimal.

A band of airspace east of Bremen towards Mecklenburg/Rostock is currently restricted - Traffic to Hamburg from Southern and Eastern Europe is being re-routed.

Thats about it if it helps.