Sydney Fog Sunday.

[hiltonbaby]

There is little point AMD a Taf when LVP have been started. A sea fog was sitting on the coast at Sydney most of Sunday arvo. Unsurprisingly to everyone, but BOM, it came ashore and caused chaos. To be fair the taf was amended very quickly when Viz was down to 500m so well done...after the event. They panick forecast after Mildura and no longer provide the staff to look out the window, unless binoculars can see from Cairns.

[43Inches]

To be fair if you are referring to the MIA VA/QF fog incident the BOM did have a TEMPO for low cloud on it all morning, including when the jets diverted. There was reported low cloud in the area, and the fog materialized pretty quickly from nowhere. Neither jets held for an hour before attempting a landing.

I agree with the issues at ports that seemingly should have met watch. Forecasts are for planning and at least the first 5 hours should be extremely accurate (as per the BOMs own statement). If there is fog nearby, put on a probability. It's better I have extra fuel and off load a bit of payload for nothing than plan min fuel on a good forecast only to be told at top of descent that there's suddenly fog. Forecasters seem to be confusing forecasting with issuing observations.

And yes, I've seen several occasions lately where the TAFs at SYD and MEL were amended as or after the weather deteriorated, not prior to.

[Jetsbest]

My recall is that Sydney’s TAF had PROB30FG for Sunday morning since the 09Z TAF issued on Saturday evening; it should have been considered by all aircraft arriving on Sunday morning until about 22Z. The fact is, the FG actually happened! Shock/horror!😯🙄

I observed several aircraft go around from Cat1 minima while others, presumably using the CAT2 approaches, landed successfully. Go figure.🙄

[C441]

And yes, I've seen several occasions lately where the TAFs at SYD and MEL were amended as or after the weather deteriorated, not prior to.
Not just lately…..

[ACMS]

My recall is that Sydney’s TAF had PROB30FG for Sunday morning since the 09Z TAF issued on Saturday evening; it should have been considered by all aircraft arriving on Sunday morning until about 22Z. The fact is, the FG actually happened! Shock/horror!😯🙄

I observed several aircraft go around from Cat1 minima while others, presumably using the CAT2 approaches, landed successfully. Go figure.🙄

The event was at 1915 onwards ……Sunday evening…….it was not forecast….I was there and just landed by the skin of my teeth at the Cat 1 minima….flew into the fog at 400’ over the approach lights and only just stayed visual.

[Jetsbest]

Sunday morning had similar problems for some flights…. despite the prior warning.

[Gunner747400]

The event was at 1915 onwards ……Sunday evening…….it was not forecast….I was there and just landed by the skin of my teeth at the Cat 1 minima….flew into the fog at 400’ over the approach lights and only just stayed visual.
Yep, even tower was making a mockery of the BoM, when they could see it clearly rolling in with nothing on the TAF and aircraft asking wtf was going on.

[Chronic Snoozer]

What was on the ATIS?

[mates rates]

A forecast is just that!! ALWAYS have a plan B.

[Will IB Fayed]

My recall is that Sydney’s TAF had PROB30FG for Sunday morning since the 09Z TAF issued on Saturday evening; it should have been considered by all aircraft arriving on Sunday morning until about 22Z. The fact is, the FG actually happened! Shock/horror!😯🙄

I observed several aircraft go around from Cat1 minima while others, presumably using the CAT2 approaches, landed successfully. Go figure.🙄
Superfluous information.
I arrived 6pm. Zero fog or mist on the the TAF, but visible just south of the field..
When I left, 800m RVR midpoint but LVP not in force.

[WhisprSYD]

BOM have been ridiculous for a couple of years.

Not the fault of the forecasters. Like another Dept of Many Name Changes, they have had their staff ripped out from under them and now can only triage the ports that have potential developing weather event based on the modelling.

Dispatchers and Pilots should really be applying a margin/contingency/fudge factor to the TAFS in these new 'efficient' times (good pilots always have done!).

It is not infrequent for ATC to look at the TAF and question if BOM remember what the F really stands for.

Wasn’t there previously an on-site, dedicated met unit based at Sydney Airport, that knew the local weather patterns like the back of their hands, and could forecast this type of occurrence to the minute?

What happened to them?

[hoss58]

S.A.M.U

Sydney Airport Met Unit.

Still there as far as i know

Hoss58




[framer]

I assume there is still a forecaster sitting at the field as per bullet point two. Is that not the case?
​​​​​​​The TAF3 will become the primary forecast in the first 3 hours and amended to provide similar responsiveness to the TTF.
Characteristics:
• Issued routinely every 3 hours;
• Kept under continuous weather watch by the responsible aviation meteorologist focusing on the next 5-hours of the:
– validity and timings of probabilities (PROBs) (updated if necessary); and
– validity and timings of TEMPO/INTERs (updated if necessary).
• Issued with minute granularity for FROM (FM) element;
• Provides a forecast vaild for 18-30 hours;
• Available at Gold Coast and Hobart airports – upgrading current aviation meteorological services;
• Available 24/7 at Darwin and Canberra airports – upgrading current aviation meteorological services;
• Identical code format as the standard TAF; and
• Stamped with ‘TAF3’ in RMKs section for easy identification

[mates rates]

Remember the good old days when the SOC (Senior Operations Controller) sitting in the briefing office could look out the window or receive actual visual reports and IMMEDIATELY override the TAF as required.

[Ken Borough]

Didn’t the SOC have authority to close airports? And often did?

[missy]

Wasn’t there previously an on-site, dedicated met unit based at Sydney Airport, that knew the local weather patterns like the back of their hands, and could forecast this type of occurrence to the minute? What happened to them?
AsA management decided they knew better, why should they allocate a couple of offices to BoM when no other Australian airport had a "SAMU", didn't fit the OneSky operating model and anyways both the major airlines have their own meteorologists.

I assume there is still a forecaster sitting at the field as per bullet point two. Is that not the case?
Bullet point 2
Kept under continuous weather watch by the responsible aviation meteorologist focusing on the next 5-hours of the:
– validity and timings of probabilities (PROBs) (updated if necessary); and
– validity and timings of TEMPO/INTERs (updated if necessary).

No, Sydney Airport has an observer and a bunch of cameras. The forecaster is located elsewhere eg Elizabeth Street in the city or Cairns or ?

The SAMU had access to the old Tower and would sometimes do their own observations. Sydney Tower should update the BoM as necessary including their own observations and pilot reports.

[Mugsgame]

Been caught out 3 times in as many months by s###house TAF's lately.
Melb Cavok and fog clearing on arrival a few months ago
TS closing TSV with TAF containing no more than light shwrs
SYD sea fog unforcast.

Absolutely cannot trust TAF's even for a 2-3hr trip between capitals.

[C441]

Melbourne Grand Prix day 2019. MEL TAF screams fog in all but the letters "FG" from at least 18 hours before.
Depart LAX for MEL with usual reserves plus a top-up to MTOW but not enough for a planned alternate other than ability to go to AVL.
4 or 5 hours out of MEL every aviator reading the MEL TAF or TTF except the BoM TAF and TTF writer knows MEL is about to fog in.
70nm abeam SYD TTF released "MEL 400m FG"….unfortunately AVL was also below Alt Minima and would probably be worse by the time we got there.
Divert to SYD via well south of CBR and landed in arguably even worse weather in Sydney - vis 2000m in pouring rain and a strong, gusty south-westerly. F/O did a great job!:ok:
A couple of hundred pax didn't make the GP as all the domestic flights were full and not enough standby A380 cabin crew in SYD so our jet went empty to MEL - but that's another story.:rolleyes:

It often amused me that the BoM operators could be incredibly conservative in forecasting non-critical weather (eg: INTER 5000m in RASH when there'll likely not be a cloud in the sky) but then be reluctant to forecast critical weather like fog and thunderstorms.

[framer]

No, Sydney Airport has an observer and a bunch of cameras.
Sorry to bang on about it but does that mean there is no meteorologist on the ground at Mascot for the purpose of providing trend information to the fancy new TAF3 ‘s?
​​​​​​​Crazy if true.

[markis10]

Sorry to bang on about it but does that mean there is no meteorologist on the ground at Mascot for the purpose of providing trend information to the fancy new TAF3 ‘s?
Crazy if true.

There hasn’t been meteorologists at airports since the demise of flight briefing many years ago, nor is there a need for one, observations from the technical officer along with instruments and the odd radio sonde gives the team all they need. There is a few jobs going at present in fact when it comes to airport positions https://www.seek.com.au/job/66220065?utm_source=joraau&utm_campaign=joraau&utm_medium=organic&tracking=ILC-S%2AAU%2A-JOR-Referrer-4324. As an aside - today is world meteorological day!

[10JQKA]

I think the reviews on Seek for these jobs tell you all you need to know about the current quality of Met products...

"Management is terrible. They're far more interested in politics and empire building. The core function of the organisation seems to be completely misunderstood by management as they have more IT staff than any other and those IT staff are generally inexperienced and incompetent, they've created an environment where actual meteorological products that could would be beneficial to the Australian public will never see the light of day."

[puff]

BOM forecasts are all done out of a city highrise building in MEL and BNE these days, thats only if the forcaster isn't working from home.

[framer]

Thanks for the info about where the forecasters are located. I had been taught and believed that if there was a trend function then there was literally a meteorologist on the ground at that port.
BOM forecasts are all done out of a city highrise building in MEL and BNE these days, thats only if the forcaster isn't working from home.
Please tell me you are joking about the ‘working from home’?
I can see the next accident report “ The failure to divert earlier can be traced to the failure to update the forecast which in turn was due to distraction. The primary cause of the distraction being an argument the forecaster was having with their seven year old about how much Nintendo Switch time was appropriate while off school sick.”

[PiperCameron]

Please tell me you are joking about the ‘working from home’?
I can see the next accident report “ The failure to divert earlier can be traced to the failure to update the forecast which in turn was due to distraction. The primary cause of the distraction being an argument the forecaster was having with their seven year old about how much Nintendo Switch time was appropriate while off school sick.”

Actually I'd see "working from home" as a plus.. at least they then have a window to look out of to see that it's raining and their forecast of CAVOK might require a TAF AMD.

AFAIK, met forecaster is the only job in the world where you get paid to be wrong. :-)

[Maisk Rotum]

Congratulations to the PIC that landed on 16L just as it got to it's worst at 1000 RVR, taxied off the runway at 23kts in the sharp turn, then taxied up behind a waiting Jet that surprised him as it suddenly appeared out of the fog, stopped, pulled out his phone and took a photo so he could quickly put it on social media as soon as the park brake was set. Australian aviators at their finest.

[das Uber Soldat]

Congratulations to the PIC that landed on 16L just as it got to it's worst at 1000 RVR, taxied off the runway at 23kts in the sharp turn, then taxied up behind a waiting Jet that surprised him as it suddenly appeared out of the fog, stopped, pulled out his phone and took a photo so he could quickly put it on social media as soon as the park brake was set. Australian aviators at their finest.
You know all this how?

[framer]

You know all this how?
Maisk was the f/o
​​​​​​​

[jj232]

Sorry to bang on about it but does that mean there is no meteorologist on the ground at Mascot for the purpose of providing trend information to the fancy new TAF3 ‘s?
Crazy if true.


Yes unfortunately it’s true, as someone who worked with the Sydney MET unit for many years I can tell you their Met knowledge and understanding of the local conditions were light years ahead of what we are suffering with now. They were closed down around the start of COVID, I believe it cost the airlines 2 million a year between them to fund the unit, I can assure you it’s now costed them 10 times more per year now and has to be one of the greatest own goals in aviation! People forget there existence came about because many years ago people realised the a better service was required. Unfortunately the ones who pushed for their closure didn’t have the slightest idea what they did or how import they were. The constant TAF amends with the back dating of actual weather has made the whole point of looking at the forecast a waste of time. I suggest you put on a lot of extra fuel these days!

[43Inches]

Yes unfortunately it’s true, as someone who worked with the Sydney MET unit for many years I can tell you their Met knowledge and understanding of the local conditions were light years ahead of what we are suffering with now. They were closed down around the start of COVID, I believe it cost the airlines 2 million a year between them to fund the unit, I can assure you it’s now costed them 10 times more per year now and has to be one of the greatest own goals in aviation! People forget there existence came about because many years ago people realised the a better service was required. Unfortunately the ones who pushed for their closure didn’t have the slightest idea what they did or how import they were. The constant TAF amends with the back dating of actual weather has made the whole point of looking at the forecast a waste of time. I suggest you put on a lot of extra fuel these days!

Hmm, $2mil a year vs how many tens of millions in fuel, displacement and re accommodating passengers after a diversion due low fuel state. I bet the accountants said "we can save $2million, but diversions are unknown costs until they happens o we can't account for them". Bit like, " staff cost to much screw down labor costs, retraining more cant cost that much, and who cares if we have to park a few planes, the customers will understand...." "and you cant show me a spreadsheet on how much experienced staff save us so we'll just say they don't and greens will be able to do it all the same..."

[framer]

What’s the formal process for reporting when a TAF is inaccurate? I think as pilots we need to use both the individual company reporting systems in parallel with a reporting system direct to either CASA or the BOM to build data on inaccuracies.

[jj232]

This is so sad. It is the type of decision making happening everywhere thanks to the latest cohort of "smartest guys in the room".

​​​​​​Signing off on risks to obtain "efficiency dividends" in the short term, knowing they will have moved on before the risk is realised (most of the time). It is endemic in what we're once trusted companies and organisations.

I can assure you it’s costing the airlines a small fortune no longer having SAMU( Sydney aviation met unit) in existence. Unfortunately in the ATC world we have gone backwards by about 20 years due to decisions made during COVID. No doubt in the future some bright spark will suggest to their boss what a great idea it would be to have an embedded met unit at major airports and the wheel will turn again, in the meantime we are all left trying to make the best of the current situation. Will be interesting too see what the ATSB have to say about the current met system when they investigate the QFA 28 diversion.

[missy]

What’s the formal process for reporting when a TAF is inaccurate? I think as pilots we need to use both the individual company reporting systems in parallel with a reporting system direct to either CASA or the BOM to build data on inaccuracies.

I can think of 3 possible reports to ATSB.

Occurrence Notification – Aviation
Select Other as the Event Type, and describe all details about the event, including precursors and consequences.

REPCON - voluntary and confidential reporting of aviation safety concerns.

Aviation Self Reporting Scheme


Bureau of Meteorology seeks feedback BoM feedback (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/feedback/)

[TopBunk]

Doesn't SYD have Cat III facilities yet, or is it still stuck in the 1950's?

[missy]

Doesn't SYD have Cat III facilities yet, or is it still stuck in the 1950's?
What? Spend money on something useful? How does that make a profit?

CAT II, and to give credit where credit is due then SACL and in particular KA has done a good job in improving facilities, dragging AsA kicking and screaming from the 1950's.

Increased spacing is required for CAT II (and CAT III) approaches so with the same number of aircraft the holding will blow out, press the General Holding button. Airlines favour a higher acceptance rate and then take their chances. The issue was unforecast fog and then the impact on the movement rate, with or without LVP being implemented.

[717tech]

"The Bureau" have an open survey for their Aviation products. Go here (http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/survey) and tell them what you think.

[jj232]

Arrival only spacing Cat II is 10 NM, if there’s a departure to get away it goes to 15NM. Obviously you don’t want to go into Cat II OPS unless it’s really required. In Sydney there’s not too many days a year where it would be needed, and as for CAT III I don’t think it’s ever required.

[pill]

50% of arrivals probably won't have LVO. How many of them will do an approach to take a look? No idea. Approach ban seems to thin the traffic out in Europe/India where this happens more than once a year.

[maggot]

50% of arrivals probably won't have LVO. How many of them will do an approach to take a look? No idea. Approach ban seems to thin the traffic out in Europe/India where this happens more than once a year.

yep, you'll still hold behind a saab

[frangatang]

On inspecting the BOM website l see they have their priorities right…indigenous weather forecasting! Woke at last

[jj232]

Yesterday afternoon in SYD was yet again another perfect example this system is broke, went to 25 only at around 1700L for about an hour and a half! Nowhere on any of the hundred TAF amends yesterday was there any indication of a 30kt westerly for an hour or so. Happened smack band in the middle of the evening burst and caused chaos! Funny enough the TAF amends went silent for a couple of hours, not even a speci!