Chinese Spy Balloon loitering over continental US

[Greatman77]

A Chinese surveillance balloon has been spotted over the continental United States and scrutinized by the U.S. military for several days, prompting the Pentagon to consider shooting it down, senior U.S. officials said Thursday, a striking development in a time of rising tension between the two world powers. I would have thought a balloon couldn't accomplish anything that a modern spy satellite could? I'm too new to post a link, maybe one of you seasoned members could...

[unworry]

Currently over Montana. I recall a similar report last year but believe it was above FL450

Curious whether any NOTAMs have been published regarding this "incursion". Apparently there was a ground stop at KBIL

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn_4yQ4XEAA7Veo?format=jpg&name=largehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn_4yQ2WQAUd7XF?format=jpg&name=medium

[unworry]

BREAKING: U.S. State Department summons Chinese diplomat to deliver "very clear and stark message" after spy balloon detected over US

Tankers seem busy - wonder how many fighters are up there giving it the eyeball

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn_6zWtX0AQciAF?format=jpg&name=large

[unworry]

More details in this updated NPR article
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/02/1153997635/chinese-spy-balloon-montana-pentagon

[jolihokistix]

This shot looks very different to the dirigible cigar-shaped one posted in today's other thread. If this 'round' one is correct, then it looks very similar to one that drifted 'mysteriously' over Japan a couple of years back. There was at the time some debate as to whether the rack hanging from it could provide some form of guided propulsion or not, as I recall.

[9 lives]

Quick! Inflate a whole bunch of these!:
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/570x370/tanklift_thumb_570x370_122303_4c004bb1a26f7ed049ade0d8368f6a e4049da2bf.jpg

[India Four Two]

"You're gonna need a bigger gun!"

Deploy the dummy missiles!

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/696x926/racot_696x926_9d5529b6d095b928f88b233e9028f9f57dfcdbfe.jpg
Dummy SA-2 at the Air Force Museum in Hanoi.

[megan]

wonder how many fighters are up there giving it the eyeballReported elsewhere as two F-22 with tanker support.

[tartare]

One would assume our friends at Fort Meade are using national technical or some other means to listen in on what's going back to Beijing, which would also be a good reason for not shooting it.
As an old spook once said "...they were listening to you, and we were listening to them listening to you..."!

[Less Hair]

Imagine the same thing happening with a US spy-balloon flying over China. They would rev into red RPM.

[ATC Watcher]

Curious whether any NOTAMs have been published regarding this "incursion".

according to this statement no need for a NOTAM , we have enough of thsoe CYA ones already ...
Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, provided a brief statement on the issue, saying the government continues to track the balloon. He said it is "currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground."

[EDLB]

Hm, if this thing mysteriously deflates and comes down anywhere in the desert, who would complain?

[Mozella]

How high is this balloon? One talking head on the morning news said 300 miles! That doesn't make sense.

Then she went on to say something like, "Perhaps we can send up a fighter and cast a net over the balloon and drag it back down."

If they try that, I certainly hope they make a high quality video so they can use the footage in the next Spiderman or Tom Cruise movie.

Does the F-35 internal weapons bay have a "cast net" option that they've been keeping secret from us?

[JanetFlight]

Well...Even above FL450 any civil Gulf or Glex could hit it...At least till FL 510 iirc...Does anyone knows for sure wich FL he is opr?

[IBMJunkman]

We need a few darts players.

[dr dre]

Why all this fuss over “spy balloons”? Regular commercially available satellite imagery that everyone can view on Google Maps provides all the intelligence anyone needs:

To Find America's Nuclear Missiles, Try Google Maps (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/07/31/336847318/to-find-america-s-nukes-try-google-maps)

I’m sure the “spy” satellites used by various countries will show even greater detail, so no need for anyone to kick up a stink about being “spied on” from a balloon. Especially the US, when they are doing the same thing. There’s probably half a dozen NSA satellites over China photographing every square inch as we speak:

Everything We Know About America's Secret KH-11 Recon Satellites (https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a28937898/kh-11-satellites/)

[Pilot DAR]

Regular commercially available satellite imagery that everyone can view on Google Maps provides all the intelligence anyone needs

Complete speculation on my part, but maybe it's not images the Chinese seek, but rather relayed transmissions or signals?

[meleagertoo]

It would be illuminating, if not downright amusing for someone to explain just how Uncle Sam is supoosed to 'down' a balloon. Surveillance balloons tend to fly in the stratosphere way above the service cieling of most, if not all fighters which in any case are not equipped with any weapon that could credibly deflate a balloon. Perhaps a very close (feet away) supersonic pass might do the trick but you'd probably need an X15 or SR71 to get that high - if you were lucky and the balloon was low enough..

[dr dre]

Complete speculation on my part, but maybe it's not images the Chinese seek, but rather relayed transmissions or signals?

Even if there’s Chinese spies on the ground transmitting messages back to Beijing I don’t think they need to relay their signals via a massive balloon hovering over the middle of Montana.

The US government released a statement (https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/chinese-spy-balloon-surveilling-us-senior-official/story?id=96860718) pretty much admitting the reconnaissance capabilities gained by the balloon wouldn’t be as useful as what they already have via satellite.

(Retd USAF Col.) Ganyard predicted the balloon was an experiment gone awry.

Such balloons are not controlled after their release and while they are normally equipped with mechanisms to deflate over an open area, the mechanisms can fail, Ganyard said. So it's possible the balloon would have drifted over from China after multiple days, rather than being nefariously deployed.

China intentionally deploying a reconnaissance balloon over the U.S. would be highly provocative, with little value, Ganyard said, noting that Chinese satellites are able to collect information in a similar manner.

[atakacs]

Complete speculation on my part, but maybe it's not images the Chinese seek, but rather relayed transmissions or signals?
If so what would be the point of sending a huge stratospheric balloon that can be spotted miles away... ?

[Less Hair]

Why not just take a spare drone and rip it open while it is over the US and nobody has claimed it to be his? Say it just crashed.

I think this balloon intrusion is intended to become a political trade object versus US overflights of "their" (claimed) eastern pacific reefs and through "their" (claimed to be chinese) international airspace.

[albatross]

JOKE Well, perhaps one of these has been drifting around since WW2? JOKE OVER
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb

[jfill]

BALLOON HYSTERIA!

The intelligence collecting value of a balloon at 60000 ft has to be close to zero compared to satellites. Balloon path is influenced by jet stream winds and can be modified only slightly by changing altitude. NOAA flies numerous high altitude balloon missions and recently Project Loon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_LLC)flew world wide balloons attempting to bring internet/wifi to remote locations.

[Winemaker]

It would be illuminating, if not downright amusing for someone to explain just how Uncle Sam is supoosed to 'down' a balloon. Surveillance balloons tend to fly in the stratosphere way above the service cieling of most, if not all fighters which in any case are not equipped with any weapon that could credibly deflate a balloon. Perhaps a very close (feet away) supersonic pass might do the trick but you'd probably need an X15 or SR71 to get that high - if you were lucky and the balloon was low enough..
The U-2 might go high enough. Agree it would be difficult to down, it was difficult to shoot down WW1 German dirigibles and they were hydrogen filled. I wonder if this is hydrogen - way cheaper and easier to get than helium and provides greater lift.

[ATC Watcher]

Looking at the photo, the payload and the solar panels alttached to it, it looks more like a weather observation balloon than a spy/camera one , which , anyway as many have stated already here, makes no real sense as satellites would do a better job, and a Sat can be moved to specific areas , unlike ballons which depends on high altitude winds. I have seen athmospheric weather ballons self destruct fail and ended up having huge diameters in hundreds of feet , passing thoug 30-40.000 ft , hence the warning we had ,and still going up . At one point , if the enevoppe is strong enough they would stop climbing and drift. No idea at which excact altitude there is no more wind. but I would say probably in the mesosphere i.e. above 150.000 ft , and once the baloon reached this it just becomes stationary , . Could be just that.. But if it was I think surely the Chinese would have said it already., so a bit of mystery. remains.

As to shooting it down , I know you Americans guys love to shoot at things , but how ? A helium gas ballon can go up to 170.000 ft , as far as I know the US only has a F-22 today that could go up to 70.000 ft max. , still a long way to go if the baloon is above 100.000 ft. Funny enough ,( just looked it upt) the last altitude world records , up to 120.000 ft are held by good old MIG 25s. .

[BFSGrad]

But if it was I think surely the Chinese would have said it already., so a bit of mystery. remains.

As to shooting it down , I know you Americans guys love to shoot at things , but how ? A helium gas ballon can go up to 170.000 ft , as far as I know the US only has a F-22 today that could go up to 70.000 ft max. , still a long way to go if the baloon is above 100.000 ft. Funny enough ,( just looked it upt) the last altitude world records , up to 120.000 ft are held by good old MIG 25s. .The Chinese have claimed ownership as a “civilian” R&D asset.

All the way back in 1985, the U.S. demonstrated the capability to destroy a target hundreds of miles above Earth using a missile launched from an F-15. More recently, Operation Burnt Frost knocked down another satellite, using a ship-based missile defense system. And as I noted in another post, the Patriot system is available for altitudes up to around 80K ft. Ironically, all the U.S. air-defense and missile-defense systems are optimized for the technically-challenging fast-moving target. A balloon is certainly not that.

[Matt2725]

It would be illuminating, if not downright amusing for someone to explain just how Uncle Sam is supoosed to 'down' a balloon. Surveillance balloons tend to fly in the stratosphere way above the service cieling of most, if not all fighters which in any case are not equipped with any weapon that could credibly deflate a balloon. Perhaps a very close (feet away) supersonic pass might do the trick but you'd probably need an X15 or SR71 to get that high - if you were lucky and the balloon was low enough..


They did destroy a satellite in orbit with an F-15 once, so not out of the question.

[pilotmike]

Apparently China's latest 'explanation' is that it is a Met balloon, which was blown off course.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-64514120
​​​​​​​The Chinese authorities say a surveillance balloon sighted over sensitive US territory is theirs, but insist its purpose is for weather research and that it was blown off course by unexpected winds.
Do they not understand irony?

[MechEngr]

Shooting down the satellite was the dumbest thing to do. Sure, it's nice to know you can, but the problem is once the big boys do it then everyone else needs to prove they can as well. But that ignores one huge glaring error.

It's not possible to shoot down a satellite.

The US didn't and no one else has. What the US proved was that they could turn a functioning and still useful satellite into about 50,000 tiny non-functioning satellites, the majority of which are likely still in orbit as a giant debris field. The Russians added their debris field and the Chinese did also, somewhat recently. My hope is that the better educated Indian military will finally go, "Yes, you cannot shoot a satellite down." and be satisfied with knowing that they can hit things with missiles and not need to prove they can hit a satellite also.

Sure, put a missile into an airplane and the airplane comes down; not so for satellites.

[ATC Watcher]

Thanks BFSGrad for the explanation . I do not know how a Patriot missile finds its taget, but a balloon is stationary . made almost all of thin synthetic fabric and gas (Helium or Hydrogen) , the payload is rather small and it is not poducing any heat, so IR will be useless. But maybe it has contrast camera or laser detection.?
Just listened of the Pentagon briefing , did not say much other that it is apparently at 60.000ft, so much lower than I tought, and is able to manoeuvre , which kind of surprises me , up and down yes of course, but laterally ? .It was identified as a surveillance balloon . At one polint he said it was the size of 3 buses, but not saying if this is the payload or the balloon itself.

[tdracer]

Pentagon Briefing On Chinese Spy Balloon: "Does Not Pose A Risk To People On The Ground" | Video | RealClearPolitics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/02/03/watch_live_pentagon_briefing_on_chinese_spy_balloon_floating _east_across_america.html)

The balloon "has the ability to maneuver" and has "changed course," he explained. "Currently it does not pose a physical or military risk to people on the ground."

Doesn't sound much like a weather balloon.
I read elsewhere that the US doesn't want to shoot it down because they are gaining massive intelligence from their observations.
That being said, photos from 60k ft. could be much more revealing than a spy satellite 100+ miles up... There are several ICBM missile sites in and around Montana...

[DaveReidUK]

Just listened of the Pentagon briefing, did not say much other that it is apparently at 60.000ft, so much lower than I thought, and is able to manoeuvre, which kind of surprises me, up and down yes of course, but laterally ?

How does it manoeuvre vertically ?

Is it a hot-air balloon ? :O

[tubby linton]

Pentagon Briefing On Chinese Spy Balloon: "Does Not Pose A Risk To People On The Ground" | Video | RealClearPolitics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/02/03/watch_live_pentagon_briefing_on_chinese_spy_balloon_floating _east_across_america.html)



Doesn't sound much like a weather balloon.
I read elsewhere that the US doesn't want to shoot it down because they are gaining massive intelligence from their observations.
That being said, photos from 60k ft. could be much more revealing than a spy satellite 100+ miles up... There are several ICBM missile sites in and around Montana... Sites that can be seen from a satellite every day of the year

[Jump Complete]

Isn’t likely to be a test of reactions and / or a middle finger rather than a serious spying operation?

[ATC Watcher]

How does it manoeuvre vertically ?

Is it a hot-air balloon ? :O
The old basic way : you release gas to go down , you release ballast ( used to be sand) to go up. Same technique as in the 19th century.. You can only do this a limited number of times though...

[BigBoreFour]

That’s no balloon. It’s a space station…

[India Four Two]

There are several ICBM missile sites in and around Montana...

... that can be quite easily photographed from the road!


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1023x655/13137139505_9774ba7bda_b_c178e10efb871233d76c88ac01e97605627 38f98.jpg
​​​​​​​

[BFSGrad]

... that can be quite easily photographed from the road!




...or from a drone. But cross that fence line, and you will be served a hot supper.

[DaveReidUK]

The old basic way : you release gas to go down , you release ballast ( used to be sand) to go up. Same technique as in the 19th century.. You can only do this a limited number of times though...

Er, doesn't that normally rely on there being someone on board to do the necessary ?

[tdracer]

Sites that can be seen from a satellite every day of the year
But if you bothered to read the rest of my post " photos from 60k ft. could be much more revealing than a spy satellite 100+ miles up". Plus satellites can't 'linger'.
Now, why the Chinese would want or need such high-resolution photos, I have no idea. But given Montana is pretty much the definition of "nowhere", why would they maneuver to keep the balloon in that area for an extended period?

[Winemaker]

Er, doesn't that normally rely on there being someone on board to do the necessary ?
Why would you need a person to release gas or ballast? Seems like it would be a simple servo design operating a valve or actuator.

[what next]

They did destroy a satellite in orbit with an F-15 once, so not out of the question.

But the missile used for that purpose cost in the order of 50 million Dollars (the original plan was to deploy 112 of them at a total cost of 5.3 billion $, so roughly 50 a piece - from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASM-135_ASAT). Apart from the fact that probably no operational missiles remain, it would be a rather expensive way to get rid of a harmless photo balloon...

[DaveReidUK]

Why would you need a person to release gas or ballast? Seems like it would be a simple servo design operation a valve or actuator.

Commanded by whom, from where ?

Are you suggesting that the balloon is being controlled remotely from Beijing ?

Or that the entire mission is being performed autonomously, presumably to follow a pre-defined track (otherwise there wouldn't be any point in having a manoeuvring capability) ?

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it. :O

[BFSGrad]

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it. :O
Winds aloft at 53K relatively benign; at 60K probably more so. Just a relaxed scenic drive across the U.S.

[jolihokistix]

See other thread, bang, self-destructed or shot down.

[BFSGrad]

See other thread, bang, self-destructed or shot down.
But the other thread Twitter video allegedly was shot in Billings, MT. Balloon was sighted in Kanas City and then further east toward St. Louis. Does not compute.

[tdracer]

Commanded by whom, from where ?

Are you suggesting that the balloon is being controlled remotely from Beijing ?

Or that the entire mission is being performed autonomously, presumably to follow a pre-defined track (otherwise there wouldn't be any point in having a manoeuvring capability) ?

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it. :O
Considering we have the capability to control a drone - up to and including firing deadly weapons - from the other side of the world, is it really such a stretch that they could be controlling a balloon?
Besides, they'd want some sort of downlink for the acquired data.

[Winemaker]

Commanded by whom, from where ?

Are you suggesting that the balloon is being controlled remotely from Beijing ?

Or that the entire mission is being performed autonomously, presumably to follow a pre-defined track (otherwise there wouldn't be any point in having a manoeuvring capability) ?

Occam's Razor says it's going where the wind has blown it. :O
Certainly (as to being controlled remotely). They are receiving some sort of data from the machine or there's no point in flying it. Communications could easily go in both directions to change altitude. Agreed, the wind will decide its ultimate fate; I understand it is now over the state of Missouri.

[jolihokistix]

But the other thread Twitter video allegedly was shot in Billings, MT. Balloon was sighted in Kanas City and then further east toward St. Louis. Does not compute.
Good point. So that falling object was what then, the reported second one？ :confused:

[BFSGrad]

Second spy balloon is reported to be transiting Latin America.

[dr dre]

Second spy balloon is reported to be transiting Latin America.

It’s over Costa Rica. I wonder what ”nefarious activity” the Pentagon will claim the Chinese are doing there?? /s

Seriously guys, if any of you were semi ardent FR24 watchers you’d know from time to time ADS-B positions of high altitude balloons (FL600 or above) were displayed, often several at a time. This is no new thing.

What We Know About The High-Altitude Balloons Recently Lingering Off America’s Coastlines (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40638/what-we-know-about-the-high-tech-balloons-lingering-off-the-coasts-of-the-u-s-recently)

I think just because the word “China” has been mentioned has sent everyone into a panic.

[Klauss]

A look at HISTORY: In the 1990s, a met balloon once went astray over Canada. F16s shot at it, without effect. It crossed the atlantic, went to Finnland after a tiny detour into Russia.
For that, NOTAM were issued.
Where are the NOTAM for this balloon ??

[MechEngr]

What the balloon is really doing:

https://i.imgur.com/RqUcU9W.jpeg

[Less Hair]

"Explosion in the sky" above Montana. According to the daily mail.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11712125/Explosion-sky-Billings-Montana-Chinese-balloon-spotted-U-S-airspace.html

[Magplug]

Are we really suggesting that the object could survive overflight of Montana with 1.1 million gun-totin', MAGA wearin' Good 'Ol Boys with their assault rifles?

My guess is the USAF are looking for a way to retrieve the object intact for maximum intelligence value. When they figure out they can't do that effectively...... then they will shoot it down.

[kghjfg]

It would be illuminating, if not downright amusing for someone to explain just how Uncle Sam is supoosed to 'down' a balloon. Surveillance balloons tend to fly in the stratosphere way above the service cieling of most, if not all fighters which in any case are not equipped with any weapon that could credibly deflate a balloon. Perhaps a very close (feet away) supersonic pass might do the trick but you'd probably need an X15 or SR71 to get that high - if you were lucky and the balloon was low enough..

exactly this, the intelligence on whether they can get up to it, and how, is far more important than what the balloon is doing (if anything).

If they get an F22 up to it, they just found out what the service ceiling of an F22 is.

I met an F4 pilot that had been up to 70,000’
He explained how the engines flame out, and you have to come down a bit to reignite them.

I wonder what the service ceiling of an F22 is, I wonder if the Chinese can now tell you.

[Asturias56]

"If they get an F22 up to it, they just found out what the service ceiling of an F22 is."

I'm sure they've known that for many years - they have human agents, they listen to what people say in industry forums and bars, they break into people's computers

[ATC Watcher]

kghjfg (https://www.pprune.org/members/452440-kghjfg)
I wonder what the service ceiling of an F22 is,

As I recall from talking to the F22 demo pilot in KOSH the aircrat is "limited" to 85.000 ft, which would be in any case well above the 60.000 this balloon is reported to be. But what use to know if an F-22 can go up to 60.000ft ? , a basic old Lear jet 45 can cruise at 51.000 ft...

[Chesty Morgan]

Er, doesn't that normally rely on there being someone on board to do the necessary ?
RPAS can be controlled from the other side of the planet. Not too much imagination required to see how you can control a few hooks and a flap over a hole.

[pilotmike]

I met an F4 pilot that had been up to 70,000’
He explained how the engines flame out, and you have to come down a bit to reignite them.

That made me chuckle; it was worded as though the first option was to stay up at 70,000' and continue trying to relight until giving up and deciding to come down lower to try again.

[DaveReidUK]

RPAS can be controlled from the other side of the planet. Not too much imagination required to see how you can control a few hooks and a flap over a hole.

Let's wait and see the evidence (if any) that the balloon's altitude and track are being controlled remotely, shall we ?

Occam and I aren't holding our breath ...

[601]

Besides, they'd want some sort of downlink for the acquired data.
A couple cell phones perhaps?

[Geezers of Nazareth]

having been partially involved in some high-altitude un-manned ballooning from the UK I have a few thoughts.

From the pictures that I have seen of the balloon and its payload there does not appear to be a parachute - there might be one packed inside somewhere, but we don't know that. If the balloon is shot and ripped/torn then the payload will come down rapidly; technically, it will 'plummet', then 'terminal velocity', and finally 'unscheduled disassembly on the ground'. At which point the Intell community will have lost much of there chance to examine it for information. They will be able to gather some info the smashed remains, but not nearly as much as they could from the intact payload (assuming it isn't booby-trapped!).
There are a couple of scenarios to consider -
- let it continue floating slowly across the entire USA, and when it gets close to the eastern shore of southern shore, then you attempt to bring it down, such that it lands in the sea. It would still be a destructive landing, but it won't cause any harm to land, property or people.
- attempt to introduce a very small hole in the envelope of the balloon, such that the lifting-gas is lost gradually, and the balloon descends gradually. It is still uncontrolled in which direction it is going, and it is going to cause quite some chaos in the US airspace, but it will come down eventually ... hopefully not in/on a major population centre, but cannot be guaranteed. The problem with this is that to introduce a tiny hole in the envelope is extremely difficult ... a pin-prick becomes a small hole, which becomes a small tear and then a large tear, which leads to the 'sudden plummet' outcome.
What the Intell people want is for it to descend gradually and gently alight in a field in the middle of nowhere ... the payload suspended underneath is not too damaged, and then allows extensive analysis of whatever is on board. If it does land in a built-up area then recovery might be a bit more of a problem, but still 'doable'. It also might land in the top of trees in a forest, which is not ideal.

If we were to assume that it was taking pictures of whatever it flies over, it is a trivial task to to convert those pics to a digital format and transmit them to a ground station (hell, amateurs and enthusiasts have been doing it for years ...) and it is theoretically possible for those same images to be transmitted upwards to a passing satellite for storage and later download when over China. But that's what the intell people will be able to tell if they get theirs hands on a complete payload.

It is possible that the balloon knows exactly where it is because of GPS. Could they switch-off GPS for a short while to see if it confuses the entire thing? Could they GPS-spoof to make the balloon think that it was back over Chinese territory and see it it has a "I'm home, I will descend to land" system?

[DaveReidUK]

Could they switch-off GPS for a short while to see if it confuses the entire thing? Could they GPS-spoof to make the balloon think that it was back over Chinese territory and see it it has a "I'm home, I will descend to land" system?

I suspect that the scenario where one of their balloons continues circumnavigating the earth to return to its launch point probably hasn't occurred to the Chinese.

[Chesty Morgan]

Let's wait and see the evidence (if any) that the balloon's altitude and track are being controlled remotely, shall we ?

Occam and I aren't holding our breath ...

How does it manoeuvre vertically ?

Is it a hot-air balloon ? :O
Well, you only asked how not if.

I didn't say it was being controlled.

[Winemaker]

Let's wait and see the evidence (if any) that the balloon's altitude and track are being controlled remotely, shall we ?

Occam and I aren't holding our breath ...
Well, despite your skepticism, free balloons are controllable to some extent. The U.S. Balloon Fiesta features free gas balloon races for distance ala the Coupe Aéronatique Gordon Bennett, in which gas balloons are controlled by altering altitude to pick up suitable winds. A remotely controlled free gas balloon is certainly possible; the Chinese do state their machine is partially controlled as to direction.

https://balloonfiesta.com/Americas-Challenge

[tubby linton]

A photo on twitter shows that it has been neutralised.

[DaveReidUK]

Reportedly shot down (it will be interesting to see how and by what) such that it came down off the east coast.

[tubby linton]

F-22 with a AIM-9 .Pilot gets to put a balloon on the aircraft.

[Mostly Harmless]

Serious question but, would a missle even explode if it hit a balloon? Or did it just tear through it like tissue paper?

Seems like an expensive method to kill a balloon. Cost of an AIM-9 compared to a weather balloon... maybe I'm wrong there.

[Chiefttp]

Imagine if the Raptor pilot missed the shot! I’d hate to be the F-22 Pilot who missed a balloon! Imagine the ribbing he’d get for the rest of his career!

[WillowRun 6-3]

So as our friendly Asian paradigmatic Communist regime's inadvertently, accidentally, and innocently misguided high-altitude balloon drifted its way across - if I'm getting the picture here - the Aleutian Islands, Alaska and Canada, and traipsing the airspace above Montana .... this situation might, I'm just saying it might, have been worthy of reference in somebody's NOTAMs. Yes? - I mean, it was an event with potential effects, potentially serious, on air-missions, was it not??

Oh that's right. The NOTAM system had a hiccup, a glitch. A contractor employed by FAA didn't perform a task or tasks correctly, and she-bang, thud, the system conked out. Occam is impressed.

I'm sure there's no need here (insert tone of Joe Pesci getting Marissa Tomei to look more closely at the tire tracks photo.... )..... as I was saying, I'm sure there's no need to ask questions like -
what were the qualifications of the contractor who is blamed?, what were the credentials? Had this contractor - the individual(s) or corporate entity or both - had a good performance record until this event? How often were these "data files" worked on? And so forth. It sounds too simple to be true. And especially, what about Canada's nearly simultaneous glitch, I ask??

I'm not theorizing anything. I simply do not give credence to the official explanation, so far, of what happened to the NOTAM system in Uncle Sam's offices and up in Maple Flags country. And then a very, Very, VERY NOTAM-worthy event happens, but it's not widely noted to Air-Missions? [Correction - it was noted - thank you India Four Two] Okay, OK, I'll just go back to work now.... on my 2023 edition of Letter from WR to Santa Claus, a wish-list longer than ever.

[megan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVhLhq3CEQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRYflEfWdaI

[MechEngr]

Yes - a NOTAM is required for aircraft at an altitude no one but a select few military can reach. There's also one for the International Space Station. /s

[India Four Two]

but it's not widely noted to Air-Missions?

Willow Run,

I draw your attention to this NOTAM for the Edmonton FIR up in Maple Flags and Santa Claus country. ;)
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https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1514x362/screenshot_2023_02_05_at_10_57_46_fb3276b40548df8d988fafd3f0 f3acd30385e8fc.png
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/890x587/screenshot_2023_02_05_at_11_09_58_97276c790b7b1be4e5d4b5e436 5264a21aa95d56.png

[MechEngr]

Canadians, eh? There was a US NOTAM to close airspace on the East coast but that was just ahead of the military shoot-down.

Of course the Chinese have cried foul after having not gotten overflight permission in the first place.

[ATC Watcher]

So I'm just saying it might, have been worthy of reference in somebody's NOTAMs. Yes? - I mean, it was an event with potential effects, potentially serious, on air-missions, was it not??

.
Dear Willow, do not want to sound pedantic , but there is no conspiracy theory here regarding the NOTAMs, First above 60.000ft is non-regulatoryairspace and the FAA is not responsible for airspace above that ,Secondly NOTAMs are by(ICAO) definition to warn about things affecting CIVIL flight operations ,. Since Concorde is gone , there are no more civil operations above 60.000ft ., so also no NOTAM required.

The Canadian NOTAM posted here by by India Four Two is indicating a volume of application between 20.000 ft and 45.000 ft .so it might or might not even refer to this perticular balloon , but if it is, it make sense as they could think it could come down on this perticular piece of airspace, . The US had obviously made anothere ertimation: i.e. that it would just cruise and follow the jetstream at 65.000 ft..so again no need for a NOTAM

In my active time as Controller in the ( upper ) airspace I controlled . I saw regularly NOTAMS referring to weather balloon launches , but as a warning when they go up, slowly and from Surface to 45.000 ft ( our controlled airspace limit in my FIR) but I never saw one on the cruise part , and neither on coming down as nobodyreally knows when and where they will come down., (except thoses that have a self destruct mechanism )

My guess on all this, is that it is indeed a surveillance balloon that should never have gone that far up for some reason , got into the jetstream and could not be controlled out ( up far North the jetstream goes well above 100 Kts) someone in China decided to let it go and see what the US reaction will be, Well they know now.,The path and fate of the second similar balloon now over Central America and the Carribbean , if it is is the same type, and launched from the same place in China, would perhaps be a good indication of what was initially intended and if something went wrong. ,

As to get the debris back from the sea, well normally everthing in weather balloons is made of extremely light material to save weight,,if the strucure is attached to something heavy, like a camera or a large transmitter , the terminal velocity of the whole thing when dropping from 65.000ft would be so high when hitting the water and not easy to get those small debris back. If the whole thing is made of very light material and comes down slowly ,them the area to search will be huge...In both cases it could take quite a while to get everthing back I would say .

[Flyhighfirst]

Serious question but, would a missle even explode if it hit a balloon? Or did it just tear through it like tissue paper?

Seems like an expensive method to kill a balloon. Cost of an AIM-9 compared to a weather balloon... maybe I'm wrong there.

It would have been a gun run and not a missile they would have used.

[FlyboyUK]

BBC reports that a sidewinder missile was used

[jolihokistix]

Time to change the thread title (and the offense), from Loitering to Littering, methinks.

[wiggy]

It would have been a gun run and not a missile they would have used.

It's very clear from at least some of the videos that there's a missile launch from the fighter a few seconds before the balloon goes pop.

[ATC Watcher]

Again if I remember correctly from my discussions with the F-22 demo pilot in KOSH there are no guns on an F-22, but it can carry an underwing pod holding a large 20mm one. Not sure if a on high altitude intecept mission it would carry an underwing pod. Nevertheless the Pentagon said the F-22 used a " a single AIM-9X supersonic, heat-seeking, air-to-air missile" , the "heat seeking part" is somewhat ironinc here , and the supersoninc probably overdone too, but they got the job done at the exact location they wanted to , so congrats. If they missed and it was outisde the 22 Km sovereingn airspace limit it would have been shooting down an aircraft in international airspace, a totally different ball game politically....

[togsdragracing]

Serious question but, would a missle even explode if it hit a balloon? Or did it just tear through it like tissue paper?

Seems like an expensive method to kill a balloon. Cost of an AIM-9 compared to a weather balloon... maybe I'm wrong there.

From a couple of the pictures available this morning it appears to me that the missile hit the instrument package.

[meleagertoo]

It would have been a gun run and not a missile they would have used.
Seriously? How would that work?
A gun would only make pinprick holes in such a balloon that would have little effect on it for many hours if not days. It certainly wouldn't be possible to 'burst' it with a gun.
Quite how an IR homing missile manages to 'see' the cold-soaked payload is strange, or does that version of Sidewinder have radar homing too? In any case it'll make sure there's nothing left to examine which sounds thoroughly counter-productive.
Maybe they just aren't that bothered to find out what it was carrying, which suggests either they know already or son't consider it a credible threat to anyone (other than the miniscule possibility of it doing any damage falling to ground over the vast, empty midwest).

[Chesty Morgan]

From a couple of the pictures available this morning it appears to me that the missile hit the instrument package.
An air to air missile doesn't "hit" anything.

It explodes in proximity to the target.

[601]

In any case it'll make sure there's nothing left to examine which sounds thoroughly counter-productive.
I would no doubt that if the package was transmitting those transmissions would be the subject of inception and decoding.
If it was collecting data for eventual retrieval by the owner, the owner can come and search for it.

[wiggy]

Quite how an IR homing missile manages to 'see' the cold-soaked payload is strange, or does that version of Sidewinder have radar homing too?

According to public domain info things have very much moved on with heat seekers since the days of things like the 9G and 9L which needed to the seeker to "see" a hot spot/hotspots.

The 9X (and some other modern heaters) uses some fancy technology to image the target in the IR (and anything with a temperature above absolute zero is emitting IR to some degree) and then the missile flies a suitable course towards the image....amongst other that increases the resistance to being decoyed by flares and perhaps (rumour) even the ability to select a vulnerable bit of structure to aim for.

[Winemaker]

Here's a link to the weather blog of a University of Washington climatologist in which he analyzes the balloon path and how changing altitude into different wind directions could have steered it.

https://cliffmass.********.com/

[twb3]

Serious question but, would a missle even explode if it hit a balloon? Or did it just tear through it like tissue paper?

Seems like an expensive method to kill a balloon. Cost of an AIM-9 compared to a weather balloon... maybe I'm wrong there.

Reporting is that an AIM-9X was employed. Most air-to-air missiles fuse on proximity rather than contact. From the video, it was very effective in nearly instantaneously destroying the envelope. A gun run would have made a lot of holes in the envelope, but maybe not drop the payload where assets were deployed to recover it, plus the hazard of the interceptor colliding with the target. Seems to me that they made the right weapon choice.

[mickjoebill]

One reason the US did not bring it down over remote Montana could be that the wreckage would have revealed if the payload was benign.

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Mjb

[Mostly Harmless]

Ah yes, thanks.

[Mostly Harmless]

An air to air missile doesn't "hit" anything.

It explodes in proximity to the target.

I see. Thanks.

[DaveReidUK]

drop the payload where assets were deployed to recover it

Do we know that that's the case?

Has the payload in fact been recovered?

[Senior Pilot]

This is no longer an R&N topic, please take your contributions to https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/651165-chinese-spy-balloon-over-us.html