Chinese spy balloon over US

[tartare]

https://www.yourbigsky.com/billings-beat/picture-of-what-appears-to-be-a-top-secret-satellite-balloon-taken-from-ground-in-mt-faa-not-making-statement/

Harking back to Japanese fire balloons in WWII?!
Not the first time in recent years - and they don't want to take `kinetic action' (FFS, just say shoot it down) because of the danger of debris to those on the ground.

https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1621293636943052801/photo/1

[MechEngr]

Probably an Alibaba order gone astray.

[chopper2004]

https://www.yourbigsky.com/billings-beat/picture-of-what-appears-to-be-a-top-secret-satellite-balloon-taken-from-ground-in-mt-faa-not-making-statement/

Harking back to Japanese fire balloons in WWII?!
Not the first time in recent years - and they don't want to take `kinetic action' (FFS, just say shoot it down) because of the danger of debris to those on the ground.

https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1621293636943052801/photo/1


https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/satellite-photos-reveal-colossal-airship-hangar-in-chinese-desert/news-story/a694cf3cd9d6a760f662bde74004dac5


also last year, sighting over Philippines

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3204389/mystery-airship-spotted-over-philippines-near-south-china-sea


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1098x732/5cac710e_da2c_45d9_adb8_f5b83e2120fe_aa471b8d58cdbc6ef189887 1cb1e7fec1428c02b.jpeg

cheers

[jolihokistix]

Yes, we had a thread about this somewhere, the airfield and the giant hangar for it, and how it was based on a US military experiment; this was also seen observing Taiwan.

[MechEngr]

Only 98 more to go.

[RAFEngO74to09]

Balloon is over the Montana Minuteman III silo areas - now has 2 x F-22A + KC-10 tanker heading there

Jbev ✈️🇺🇸🚨 on Twitter: "Walked outside every pass to see if he’d link up with anything-finally after an hour in he had two F-22’s tailing, and headed up to Montana for observation of the Chinese balloon. Thanks to @thenewarea51 @WasatchSkyWatch and @BIL_spotter for keeping updates https://t.co/lrWcucGfqU" / Twitter

[tartare]

Would be interesting to get hands on the payload.
But I guess too high for any type of drone with scissors...!
Wonder if it'll `drift' south-east over Whiteman...?

[RAFEngO74to09]

Disclose.tv on Twitter: "PHOTO - Chinese spy balloon over Montana, United States — KSVI-TV https://t.co/qVbzLCWF5y" / Twitter

[BFSGrad]

Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing on High-Altitude Surveillance Balloon (https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/)Key points:

Very high confidence aircraft is PRC asset

Aircraft is a surveillance asset

Limited surveillance value relative to other PRC surveillance assets

PRC officials have been engaged “with urgency”

[MechEngr]

Question raised by that briefing: If they have taken steps against surveillance from the balloon, but LEO satellites provide similar or better coverage then doesn't that run a risk of creating an observable delta? OTOH, It can certainly be a good time for a solid misinformation plan. Are there any secret carrot farms now laid out in the area? Lots of radio chatter concerning Christopher Robin's woodland friend?

The AF is not saying the altitude, but a couple of people with theodolites or sextants could get some known separation to find that out, most easily around dawn or dusk. About 2 -5 miles ought to be enough for non-precision equipment to manage a +/-5% estimate (any school children in Montana looking for a project?) Decent astronomical telescopes should have sufficient precision to get better results. Don't forget to correct for curvature of the Earth!

[Imagegear]

No nation has yet claimed ownership, therefore it must be a hazard to high altitude navigation and should be removed.:E

IG

[jolihokistix]

If a drone or balloon with a telescope was to hover over my garden I would shoot it down. :cool:

[622]

They always blame balloons..
...Its Aliens I tell you !!!

[osbo]

https://www.yourbigsky.com/billings-beat/picture-of-what-appears-to-be-a-top-secret-satellite-balloon-taken-from-ground-in-mt-faa-not-making-statement/

Harking back to Japanese fire balloons in WWII?!
Not the first time in recent years - and they don't want to take `kinetic action' (FFS, just say shoot it down) because of the danger of debris to those on the ground.

https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1621293636943052801/photo/1

Yeah, Montana being so densely populated......not.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/montana-population

behind only Alaska and Wyoming in terms of least densley populated states in the US....

[pasta]

To be fair, at least the Chinese "weather balloons" actually look like weather balloons...

[Ninthace]

No nation has yet claimed ownership, therefore it must be a hazard to high altitude navigation and should be removed.:E

IG
Who is navigating that high except other balloons?

[ROC man]

Wonder if its steerable? Photo on BBC seems to show solar type panels hanging below it. Any unusual movements from Chinese vessels in N Atlantic? Wot goes up, must come down.......

[jimjim1]

Wonder if its steerable?

The similar Google Loon balloons 'steered' by changing altitude to get into suitable winds. Seemed quite effective for use as a radio relay.

"Google's Project Loon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Loon) uses controllable altitude superpressure balloons to achieve flights of over 300 days.[ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpressure_balloon#cite_note-7)"

Google Loon is now closed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_LLC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpressure_balloon
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/keep-your-eye-on-the-hbal-tracking-project-loon-balloons/

[ROC man]

Very interesting JimJim. So it just needs the jetstream data nobbling before publication.......

[India Four Two]

Yeah, Montana being so densely populated......not.

Yes, Montana is about 50% larger than the UK in area and has only 2% of the population - about one million. It's a big state - 550 miles east-west and 300 miles north south.

​​​​​​​You could shoot the balloon down with minimal risk of hitting anyone!

[Ninthace]

Yes, Montana is about 50% larger than the UK in area and has only 2% of the population - about one million. It's a big state - 550 miles east-west and 300 miles north south.

You could shoot the balloon down with minimal risk of hitting anyone!
Why bother? Its presence is known and knocking it down gives an indication of high altitude defence capability.

[ChrisJ800]

Looks more like a university or scientific instrument than a military asset...

[rmcdonal]

How did it get this far before being noticed? Doesn't the US have an ADIZ? I would have thought a 3xbus sized floating o ject would have triggered something before it was over the top of mainland US, and been dealt with before that point.

[DaveReidUK]

BBC News reporting that it "flew over several sensitive military installations".

Presumably, being a balloon, then like any other balloon it just went where the wind took it?

[Ninthace]

How did it get this far before being noticed? Doesn't the US have an ADIZ? I would have thought a 3xbus sized floating o ject would have triggered something before it was over the top of mainland US, and been dealt with before that point.
Top of my head but isn't most of it is thin plastic? And it would have a very low doppler.

[B Fraser]

BBC News reporting that it "flew over several sensitive military installations".

I managed that as they were not marked as such on the half mil map. The discussion with MOD Plod was interesting as they appeared not to know about the omission either. It ended with "now that you know, don't do it again".

:O

[Asturias56]

Minuteman silos are easily spotted using Google earth - I doubt a balloon would add much info

[ETOPS]

Stand down - it's a weather balloon :rolleyes:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64515033

[melmothtw]

Why bother? Its presence is known and knocking it down gives an indication of high altitude defence capability.

True, but by the same token if it is feeding intelligence back in real time you don't want it staying aloft.

[melmothtw]

BBC News reporting that it "flew over several sensitive military installations".

Presumably, being a balloon, then like any other balloon it just went where the wind took it?

Presumably, the Chinese (assuming it was them) waited until favourable winds were forecast, and from nearly 20 km up it doesn't have to pass over the targets in order to get a good look at them.

[Andrewgr2]

Perhaps it is a stray weather balloon- but the PRC would say that, wouldn’t they? If it is actually spying then it might be more beneficial for the US to intercept its transmissions and decode what it is reporting than it would be to bring it down - if indeed they have the technology to bring down something flying at perhaps 80,000 feet. If they do have the technology they might not want to demonstrate it.

[BFSGrad]

Minuteman silos are easily spotted using Google earth - I doubt a balloon would add much infoThe “sensitive area” claim is a media distractor. While there’s plenty of physical security sensitive areas associated with Malmstrom AFB, there’s nothing sensitive to aerial surveillance. If you want to photograph an ICBM silo, go rent a C172 and snap away. Much more economical than a high-altitude balloon. Anything “sensitive” associated with the Malmstrom ICBM facilities is underground. The locations of the ICBM silos is widely known; e.g., the U.S. is required to provide its ICBM silo geographic coordinates to Russia (and vice versa) under arms control treaties.

[melmothtw]

If you want to photograph an ICBM silo, go rent a C172

​​​​​​​Wouldn't have to range to cross the Pacific.

[Sue Vêtements]

Spying Over Montana?

Looking at a map I've always got the feeling that Montana is an old man spying on Idaho. Sticking his nose right into Idaho's business

https://media.officedepot.com/images/f_auto,q_auto,e_sharpen/products/8325540/8325540_o01/8325540


You can't unsee that now





"If you want to photograph an ICBM silo, go rent a C172 and snap away" - Not so easy to do in the US any more. Not if you're not a citizen at least

[Ninthace]

True, but by the same token if it is feeding intelligence back in real time you don't want it staying aloft.
If you know it is there, you do not give it any intelligence to gather other than height, pressure, wind speed, temperature, humidity, atmospheric composition, presence of pollutants, incidence of cosmic rays, ozone levels and so on. :=

[melmothtw]

If you know it is there, you do not give it any intelligence to gather other than height, pressure, wind speed, temperature, humidity, atmospheric composition, presence of pollutants, incidence of cosmic rays, ozone levels and so on. :=

Lol, good luck getting any government/military organisation to move that quick.

[albatross]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu-Go_balloon_bomb

Maybe it has been drifting around since 1945.

[Ninthace]

Lol, good luck getting any government/military organisation to move that quick.
We used to!

[langleybaston]

Don't forget to correct for curvature of the Earth!

Negloble over a 5 mile base line.

Nearly Legober ...... a bit early for that.

Fanger trouble

[BFSGrad]

Why bother? Its presence is known and knocking it down gives an indication of high altitude defence capability.Not much to reveal as the U.S. routinely tests its various high- and mid-level missile defense systems. The oddity would be employing such a capability from the interior of the U.S. Seems a Patriot would do the job.

[MechEngr]

Negloble over a 5 mile base line.

But that's not how far it is to the balloon which might be 50 miles away. Besides - kids gotta learn the Earth curves. In Montana they haven't see a ship disappear over the horizon.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Why bother? Its presence is known and knocking it down gives an indication of high altitude defence capability.

Examine its on-board communications .

[Ninthace]

I wonder if it can be recovered with the instrument package relatively undamaged? If it starts to descend, Messrs Boyle, Archimedes and Newton would normally ensure a fairly hard bump on arrival.

[albatross]

Not that I think shooting it down is worth the candle.
Would a missile really be necessary? Wouldn’t a couple of short bursts of cannon-fire over a suitable area deflate the balloon(s) sufficiently to make it descend to earth? Seems a safer option.
Do they have an aircraft with a cannon capable of such a feat. Perhaps an F-18 or F-16 would suffice.

[melmothtw]

We used to!

I'm guessing that was for known satellite orbits, rather than for a balloon that no one saw coming.

[Ninthace]

I'm guessing that was for known satellite orbits, rather than for a balloon that no one saw coming.
It been coming for several days...

[MechEngr]

Boyle already ensured it would rise to that altitude and stay there. A slow leak would work, even by diffusion though the balloon envelope and Boyle might see to it that there was a slow return.

It could be from 12 to 24 miles up; If it's at the higher end of that range one will need a really good gun for a fighter to shoot it down. Then there's the rounds falling at random back onto Montana. The density may seem low, but it's sure one will hit the most valuable cow in a herd. Missiles are also a problem as the target one really wants is the balloon, which has not much radar or thermal signature. I checked and the air density at 120k ft is 0.002 that of sea level. Maybe that helps with the rounds from the fighter having less drag?

[B Fraser]

Stand down - it's a weather balloon :rolleyes:


Albeit flying some 60,000 feet above any weather. As it will be static w.r.t. the air mass that it is moving in, what's the point ?

[Ninthace]

Boyle already ensured it would rise to that altitude and stay there. A slow leak would work, even by diffusion though the balloon envelope and Boyle might see to it that there was a slow return.

It could be from 12 to 24 miles up; If it's at the higher end of that range one will need a really good gun for a fighter to shoot it down. Then there's the rounds falling at random back onto Montana. The density may seem low, but it's sure one will hit the most valuable cow in a herd. Missiles are also a problem as the target one really wants is the balloon, which has not much radar or thermal signature. I checked and the air density at 120k ft is 0.002 that of sea level. Maybe that helps with the rounds from the fighter having less drag?
I beg to differ. As it loses buoyancy Archimedes loses the battle with Newton. As it descends increasing pressure, courtesy of Boyle, will compress the fixed mass of gas further decreasing the buoyancy and accelerating the descent and resulting in a fearsome bump. The only question is would the rising temperature at lower altitude bring Mr Charles to the rescue?

[ETOPS]

what's the point ?

Check rolling eye emoji....

[MechEngr]

I beg to differ. As it loses buoyancy Archimedes loses the battle with Newton. As it descends increasing pressure, courtesy of Boyle, will compress the fixed mass of gas further decreasing the buoyancy and accelerating the descent and resulting in a fearsome bump. The only question is would the rising temperature at lower altitude bring Mr Charles to the rescue?

The pressure is increasing, but so is the density. Perhaps you are basing this on items submerged in water where the pressure of the water goes up but the water density doesn't. If this balloon was in the water that would be the case, but it started out at the ground level, with all the atmospheric pressure and went up from their.

[Free Range]

Shoot
the
china
ballon
down
now

immediately expel ALL china diplomats from us

[Ninthace]

Whaaaat?!

[Lonewolf_50]

That's an amusing proposal, Free Range.
The last time I was on K Street (your claimed location) there was an all-nude stripper bar with an impressive stable of dancers.
Can't remember the name of it, been over 30 years.



[mikeoneflying]

Maybe these balloons will become a common sight -- probably Europe/UK next on the target list -- if that's possible.

Forget gunboat diplomacy -- balloons are cheaper.

[911slf]

Unless anyone knows better: there is nothing of consequence a balloon can see that a satellite cannot see, and the US forces can likely listen in to any radio transmissions from the balloon, gaining intelligence on Chinese encryption. Yes, it's cheeky of the Chinese, but if the balloon were a serious threat it would be shot down. I suspect US can gain more than it loses by observing it and listening to its transmissions. Anyone in a position to know for sure is unlikely to post answers here.

[mikeoneflying]

I don't think it anything to do with intelligence gathering just a way of putting a weed up the administration.

Its a cheap way way to get the worlds attention and difficult to counter without either looking weak or stupid (if the US failed in an attempt to shoot it down).

[Recc]

Unless anyone knows better: there is nothing of consequence a balloon can see that a satellite cannot see, and the US forces can likely listen in to any radio transmissions from the balloon, gaining intelligence on Chinese encryption. Yes, it's cheeky of the Chinese, but if the balloon were a serious threat it would be shot down. I suspect US can gain more than it loses by observing it and listening to its transmissions. Anyone in a position to know for sure is unlikely to post answers here.

The only advantages that I can think of is that it remains above the same area for long periods of time compared to a LEO reconnaissance satellite. Potentially, if you were interested in observing patterns of movement over relatively short periods of time (but at very high resolution) then it may have advantages. Slightly more far-fetched is the ability (compared to satellites) to conduct atmospheric sampling and to record sound. Both of these capabilities have been used in US balloon programmes in the past.

Either way, the USA has previously run a number of balloon based intelligence programmes (e.g. Genetrix) , some of which overflew China. Of course they are within their rights to shoot the thing down, but the outrage seems a little hard to justify given the history.

[70 Mustang]

Did it have "made in China" written on the side? Couldn't be from Russia or North Korea? Could it be that the respective government actually did not know?

Or something like the Bay of Pigs fiasco?

In the UK, I haven't seen or heard anything regarding how the "ownership" was determined?

Just asking. May have missed a news report ot two.

[Recc]

Just asking. May have missed a news report ot two.

China have claimed that it is theirs and that it is civilian weather balloon.

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/h_e41790ac6ca5b17edf685112a0bbb60a

[melmothtw]

Did it have "made in China" written on the side? Couldn't be from Russia or North Korea? Could it be that the respective government actually did not know?

Or something like the Bay of Pigs fiasco?

In the UK, I haven't seen or heard anything regarding how the "ownership" was determined?

Just asking. May have missed a news report ot two.

China has said it's theirs, only they're saying it's a civil weather balloon.

[70 Mustang]

Why cancel the "Blinking" visit?

[AreOut]

Perhaps it is a stray weather balloon- but the PRC would say that, wouldn’t they? If it is actually spying then it might be more beneficial for the US to intercept its transmissions and decode what it is reporting than it would be to bring it down - if indeed they have the technology to bring down something flying at perhaps 80,000 feet. If they do have the technology they might not want to demonstrate it.

of course US has the technology to bring it down, but using expensive rockets(SM-3 costs north of $10M) that go to the edge of space would be an overkill for a balloon

[Low average]

In my opinion, the capabilities of this balloon are probably minimal and not the point. This is a strong statement from China - they can put their hardware directly over the US unopposed, and visible for all to see.

Powerful.

[Winemaker]

I beg to differ. As it loses buoyancy Archimedes loses the battle with Newton. As it descends increasing pressure, courtesy of Boyle, will compress the fixed mass of gas further decreasing the buoyancy and accelerating the descent and resulting in a fearsome bump. The only question is would the rising temperature at lower altitude bring Mr Charles to the rescue?
High altitude balloons are launched with a bubble of gas that is pretty small in volume compared to the volume at height, as the gas expands with reduced pressure at altitude. What counts is the displaced mass of the air the lifting gas replaces. Air masses (at sea level) 1.225 kg/m^3, helium 0.178 kg/m^3, so provides about 1 kg/m^3 of lift.

[ShyTorque]

Spying Over Montana?

Looking at a map I've always got the feeling that Montana is an old man spying on Idaho. Sticking his nose right into Idaho's business.

You can't unsee that now


In that case, I hate to think what Florida looks like….. ;)

[havoc]

I’ll be the cynic…. Put internal cargo that would produce an EMP blast

Hopefully the US will bring it down in the gulf or Atlantic coast

[Ninthace]

Must be some clever coves in the PRC that can launch a balloon and get it to arrive in the right place in the US.

[Phil Errup]

John Dutton will sort it out 🤠

[mikeoneflying]

The Chinese will auto destruct the balloon over the sea -- the balloon might even have the capability to auto destruct if attacked.

I wonder when the next balloon is due?

[Sue Vêtements]

I wonder when the next balloon is due?

If it's like London busses, there won't be any for a while, then four will come along at the same time

[Mr_App]

I wonder when the next balloon is due?
When is the next election?

[ORAC]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/622x611/image_f22a05d9660e670d7fa314ef92f5f68425db864d.jpeg

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1621378883743358977?s=61&t=8JDg-xRDS-enN6uv2GBpXw


NORAD and the Canadian DoD has confirmed that a 2nd Balloon is currently being tracked somewhere over Canada.

[Flyhighfirst]

Why not shoot it down? Collateral damage would be almost zero chance. You don’t destroy it. A couple of rounds from an aircraft. Wait to see if it starts descending. No well then a couple more rounds. Eventually it is going to start a slow descent to the ground.

This does sound all very strange.

[Flyhighfirst]

No nation has yet claimed ownership, therefore it must be a hazard to high altitude navigation and should be removed.:E

IG

The Chinese have claimed ownership. Said it was a wether balloon gone astray. I had heard altitude was 60000.

[langleybaston]

Why not shoot it down? Collateral damage would be almost zero chance. You don’t destroy it. A couple of rounds from an aircraft. Wait to see if it starts descending. No well then a couple more rounds. Eventually it is going to start a slow descent to the ground.

This does sound all very strange.

Siunds like good shooting, from hit rates quoted ........ missing barn doors etc.
How do we know gas is helium? H2 a darn sight cheaper and easier.

[zerosum0]

PRC possibly just practicing how to position a balloon over the central US using the global jetstream, should they ever elect to employ the EMP bomb to shut down much of the US

[Flyhighfirst]

Why bother? Its presence is known and knocking it down gives an indication of high altitude defence capability.

sorry but those that want to know already know. So you not think every time there is a missile test there aren’t numerous Chinese and Russian agents watching and recording? Of course there are. Are there Americans doing the same for Russian and Chinese tests. Yes of course. On the US at least there are areas where the public can park up and watch these tests. Video them all they like. Their range and altitude won’t be a secret. Maybe their precision and the tech behind that will be but the rest is easy to find out.

[Flyhighfirst]

I’ll be the cynic…. Put internal cargo that would produce an EMP blast

Hopefully the US will bring it down in the gulf or Atlantic coast

Whats the point of an EMP blast? Might as well just launch a nuke. Which would give you the EMP. You would have the same reaction. If the Chinese were to detonate a large EMP over the US I’m pretty sure the silos would be emptied. There would be no other reason to detonate an EMP except to cover a first strike.

[paperHanger]

It is just China testing America's resolve and appetite for taking direct action. They're just trying to get a handle on how America will respond when they hit Taiwan.

Looks like the answer is "too chicken to do anything".

This does not bode well.

[Flyhighfirst]

It is just China testing America's resolve and appetite for taking direct action. They're just trying to get a handle on how America will respond when they hit Taiwan.

Looks like the answer is "too chicken to do anything".

This does not bode well.

I think most people have assumed the US will talk big but no action will ever be taken when China does invade Taiwan. Unlike Russia and Ukraine that will be resolved faster than the US could react.

[SASless]

Shame this old Girl is not still serviceable.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1092x437/airborne_laser_03_c8fa9f73f6b1dfbd95a25210e693e703ac93906f.j pg

[paperHanger]

The USAF don't have much that will get up to meet it at 60,000+ Maybe the old F15? F22 won't make it up there. No point sending a drone I guess, it needs somone to pop a few holes in the canopy with a bang stick. Quite a sizeable envelop though, might need a fair few holes ... I suspect it will have helium supplies onboard so can probably compensate ...

[paperHanger]

Ahh .. maybe it got zapped!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1621661908205195265

[cavuman1]

Having been born here in the Good Ole USA in 1949, I remember 4 October, 1957. It was my mother's thirty-seventh birthday. It was the day the USSR launched Sputnik. My father took me out to our driveway and lofted me on to his broad, strong shoulders. "There it is!", he shouted, and pointed, as a small pinpoint of light traversed the deep night Connecticut sky.

We were all frightened. The Russkies could launch a satellite. It meant they could launch an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile full of fissile Uranium, or fusionable Plutonium. They might be able to put a warhead on target. All of us, all one-hundred-seventy million, were scared to death. We all know what happened next. MADD. So far.

The Chinese "meteorological" balloon is nothing more than an intrusion on the sovereign airspace of the United States of America. Nothing less. That the assclowns who comprise the current administration have failed to act against such trespasses in a timely fashion is the reason that the rest of the Free World laugh at us. I don't blame them at all, but I do wonder who shall come to our defense when the time comes.

- Ed

[jolihokistix]

Billings Montana, wrong location?

[India Four Two]

Montana, Wyoming? Who cares? It’s all pretty much the same in the Empty Quarter! ;)

[VHOED191006]

Meanwhile at FR24, they've put the aircraft type for a US weather balloon that everyone was confusing it with the Chinese one as "This is not as Chinese balloon."
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1376x895/chinese_balloon_04ca2a73cd90a37e70d6a75569a9f9af0b290225.png

[mikeoneflying]

Meanwhile at FR24, they've put the aircraft type for a US weather balloon that everyone was confusing it with the Chinese one as "This is not as Chinese balloon."
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1376x895/chinese_balloon_04ca2a73cd90a37e70d6a75569a9f9af0b290225.png

Pentagon now saying second balloon over Latin America -- will we get to 99 Red Balloons -- 99 Red Balloons," a protest song. In the lyrics, a boy and girl innocently release a batch of balloons into the air; confused by these flying objects, international governments panic, triggering a nuclear holocaust.

NENA 1984 song.

The song will now probably chart again!
mikeoneflying is online now Report Post (https://www.pprune.org/report.php?p=11379685)

[DaveReidUK]

Pentagon now saying second balloon over Latin America -- will we get to 99 Red Balloons -- 99 Red Balloons," a protest song. In the lyrics, a boy and girl innocently release a batch of balloons into the air; confused by these flying objects, international governments panic, triggering a nuclear holocaust.

NENA 1984 song.

The song will now probably chart again!

And it's now clear how prescient Nena was - while we all thought at the time that "red balloons" was a reference to their colour, she really meant their origin. :O

[DodgyGeezer]

How hard is it going to be to shoot this object down?

It's going to be 50+ km high, on the edge of space, at a FL where only balloons can navigate. It is made out of latex, and may well be difficult to get a radar lock on - it seems that it was only found visually. And it's travelling slowly, which often makes it hard to target from a fast moving platform...

I suspect that the US authorities may not be shooting it down because they can't...

[212man]

How hard is it going to be to shoot this object down?

It's going to be 50+ km high, on the edge of space, at a FL where only balloons can navigate. It is made out of latex, and may well be difficult to get a radar lock on - it seems that it was only found visually. And it's travelling slowly, which often makes it hard to target from a fast moving platform...

I suspect that the US authorities may not be shooting it down because they can't...
The US authorities are saying it’s at about 60,000’ - 9.9nm, or 18.3km. F-15 territory

[wiggy]

How hard is it going to be to shoot this object down?

It's going to be 50+ km high, on the edge of space, at a FL where only balloons can navigate. It is made out of latex, and may well be difficult to get a radar lock on - it seems that it was only found visually. And it's travelling slowly, which often makes it hard to target from a fast moving platform...

I suspect that the US authorities may not be shooting it down because they can't...

We don't really know how it was found.

I think 50 km (160,000 feet) plus is a stretch for any balloon carrying a decent payload, but that's an IMO and open to correction.

In any event at a Pentagon press conference yesterday the senior officer doing the briefing said the balloon was at about 60,000 feet.... With a bit of a team effort that number would be fairly easy for some of the general public to confirm/deny, so I suspect that altitude would have to be credible.

I know there might be issues with radar cross section etc, but 60k would be inside the envelope (SWIDT) for a lot of kit in the US inventory, not just fast moving fighters.

[EDLB]

Would not wonder if there are only cheap Alibaba style atmospheric measuring devices in or a Vaisala kit for weather ballons. The US should have L_A_S_E_R technology which could make a sufficient hole to get it down slowly.

[Krystal n chips]

Astute move calling it a weather balloon really....thoughtfully prevents Roswell V.2 being revived.

However, watched some clips on the news of US news and yep, no point in missing a potential conspiracy theory opportunity after all....somewhere called Wuhan was mentioned as a possible launch site....now where have we heard that name before ?

But it does beg a question...why, with the resources available, wasn't it quietly removed with no publicity....... before it gained the prominence it has ?

[mikeoneflying]

Second Balloon sighted over Costa Rica then Venezuela.- according to UK Daily Mail.

Washington Post --China is Latin America’s second-largest trading partner, just behind the United States, according to a 2022 report (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri#:~:text=China%20is%20currently%20South%20America's,whole %2C%20after%20the%20United%20States.&text=Latin%20American%20exports%20to%20China,to%20drive%20it s%20industrial%20development.) from the Council on Foreign Relations. According to the report, 20 Latin American countries have signed on to be a part of the Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project led by Beijing.

Belt and Road or stranglehold.

Interesting to see where the next balloon will be sighted.

[DuncanDoenitz]

Shooting down shouldn't be necessary. Statistically, the runaway Chinese weather-balloon will shortly be hit by a falling piece of Chinese rocket-debris.

[henra]

But it does beg a question...why, with the resources available, wasn't it quietly removed with no publicity....... before it gained the prominence it has ?
Because the public panic re China you can observe even partly here might be deemed useful?!
Fascinating what a friggin' balloon can trigger....

[henra]

Belt and Road or stranglehold.

In contrast to this funny balloon Belt and Road is a very real threat to the West.

[Jetstream67]

WHAT IF
China want to know if USA has a laser weapon capable of shooting down satellites etc. Also more generally wish to portray USA as the hostile one.

Brainstorming meeting comes up with an annoying flotilla of 'peacefully lost' weather balloons just out of reach of standard air defence weapons and loaded with sensors to track any response/action

[henra]

WHAT IF
Brainstorming meeting comes up with an annoying flotilla of 'peacefully lost' weather balloons just out of reach of standard air defence weapons and loaded with sensors to track any response/action
Hmmm, but if it really is at 60k it is not out of reach of 'standard' A2A Equipment. In any case if someone really feels the urge to shoot it down it might be a good idea to do it as KISS (and thereby as little revealing) as possible, e.g.. gun of a fighter. I would not try a Patriot and then not hitting it thereby giving away limitations of current relevant systems. That is about the only useful information i can conceive which China could take from this.

[5thGenOnly]

I can’t really understand what the problem is. How is floating a weather balloon/surveillance balloon over someones airspace any different to having surveillance satellite in a LEO?

I’m pretty sure that if it is >FL600, the there is very little risk. After all, i’d have a guess that the US overflies many other countries >FL600 with both manned and unmanned surveillance systems.

Now, if sovereign airspace had a internationally recognised vertical limit, then this incident would be different.

[mikeoneflying]

I thought the Navy was going to arm U2 aircraft with anti shipping missiles during the cold war.

Launch the U2 from a carrier.

Maybe could use a U2 to launch an attack or at least get a closer look at the balloon -- bit extreme -- I am sure script writers are already at work on the next movie of the week.

[Ninthace]

What if it is just a high altitude research balloon gone astray after all? Better to leave it up there and claim it is a spy balloon, thereby generating rage and frustration against the PRC, than bring it down only to find it wasn't a surveillance balloon after all. :bored:

[EDLB]

Most likely the US knows by their ELINT that it is only a weather ballon, with a simpel TX for temp, altitude and humidity. If they had an high data rate encrypted stream transmitted from the ballon it would be down already.

[Low average]

What if it is just a high altitude research balloon gone astray after all? Better to leave it up there and claim it is a spy balloon, thereby generating rage and frustration against the PRC, than bring it down only to find it wasn't a surveillance balloon after all. :bored:
The timing is too much of a co-incidence to me. The US has finally started to call China out over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Called it a bigger threat than Russia, and has just struck a deal for bases in the Phillipines. Resistance to the slow coiling Chinese Dragon is growing.

This balloon, with its considerable payload hovering over the continental US, capable or not...is a message.

[Buster Hyman]

Pilot identified.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/344x506/free_disney_pixar_up_russell_pictures_327aeafea59fcb2779b755 9e40ec583ff978a6fb.jpg

[Baldeep Inminj]

I am somewhat confused. I am reading and hearing on the news that this balloon is steerable, and is currently ‘hovering’ over Montana.

This is simply not possible if this is indeed a balloon. Balloons, by definition, have no form of propulsion, they drift with the wind and always have zero airspeed, with their groundspeed being the wind speed at their location and altitude. They therefore cannot steer - it is physically impossible to steer something with zero airspeed. I know hot air balloons can be ‘guided’ by changing altitude to take advantage of varying wind speed and direction, but they are still just drifting with the wind.

If this device is indeed steerable, and is now hovering over Montana despite prevailing westerlies at it’s location, it is not a balloon, it is an airship. This then directly contradicts China’s assertion that is a balloon that has drifted off course.

[Brewster Buffalo]

First the bomber gap, then the missile gap so now does the West have a balloon gap!?!

[Mozella]

Why not shoot it down? Collateral damage would be almost zero chance. You don’t destroy it. A couple of rounds from an aircraft. Wait to see if it starts descending. No well then a couple more rounds. Eventually it is going to start a slow descent to the ground.

This does sound all very strange.

When I was a U.S. Naval Aviator flying fighters I did a lot of air-to-air gunnery practice, but I never started a run at 80,000 feet, that's for sure. What aircraft to you recommend for ultra-ultra-high altitude gun attacks?

[ORAC]

Most likely the US knows by their ELINT that it is only a weather ballon, with a simpel TX for temp, altitude and humidity. If they had an high data rate encrypted stream transmitted from the ballon it would be down already.
The package suspended below the balloon is reported to be the size, and presumably the weight, of 3 buses.

That’s a very big balloon, as it would have to be to be visible from the ground at 60K feet.

[MechEngr]

First the bomber gap, then the missile gap so now does the West have a balloon gap!?!
I'm going to get my shovel. Gotta get a head start on the mine gap. Also getting some jars to store the precious bodily fluids.

[albatross]

Watching the US NBC news last evening.
Talk about a “Headline in Search of a Story”
Laughable.

[DaveReidUK]

I am somewhat confused. I am reading and hearing on the news that this balloon is steerable, and is currently ‘hovering’ over Montana.

This is simply not possible if this is indeed a balloon. Balloons, by definition, have no form of propulsion, they drift with the wind and always have zero airspeed, with their groundspeed being the wind speed at their location and altitude. They therefore cannot steer - it is physically impossible to steer something with zero airspeed. I know hot air balloons can be ‘guided’ by changing altitude to take advantage of varying wind speed and direction, but they are still just drifting with the wind.

If this device is indeed steerable, and is now hovering over Montana despite prevailing westerlies at it’s location, it is not a balloon, it is an airship. This then directly contradicts China’s assertion that is a balloon that has drifted off course.

Lots of daft theories in the R&N thread about how it's being remotely controlled from Beijing so that it overflies as many secret military installations as possible.

After all, drones can be piloted from halfway across the world - ignoring the fact that the latter have wings, flying controls and an engine. :ugh:

[MarianA]

The flat earthers will have a field day: To them this will prove their claim that all satellites are actually balloons and there is no such thing as space.

[Brewster Buffalo]

I'm going to get my shovel. Gotta get a head start on the mine gap. Also getting some jars to store the precious bodily fluids.

With a proper breeding techniques and a ratio of, say, ten females to each male, I would guess that we could be back to the present gross national product within, say, 20 years.:)

[BigBoreFour]

Time to pull the SR-71 out of the Smithsonian and fire her up one last time. Get the old guys back out of retirement.
"We're getting the band back to together!".

Ram the sucker!

A Mach 3 pass oughta upset the apple cart.

Or...


Just ask the Chinese nicely if they'll happily share the probably very useful weather reports over the US at that altitude as it might actually be a weather balloon?

[AreOut]

Time to pull the SR-71 out of the Smithsonian and fire her up one last time. Get the old guys back out of retirement.
"We're getting the band back to together!".

Ram the sucker!

A Mach 3 pass oughta upset the apple cart.


it would be nice to see but I guess it would cost a lot, it costed a lot flying them when they weren't retired and I couldn't imagine now

[petit plateau]

The package suspended below the balloon is reported to be the size, and presumably the weight, of 3 buses.

That’s a very big balloon, as it would have to be to be visible from the ground at 60K feet.

More likely total mass 100kg or so, mostly the fabric envelope. The payload is probably just some solar panels on a carbon fibre spar, with a polystyrene crate in the middle housing the electronics and a few valves and a wee pump. Launching these things without mishandling them and damaging them at launch is not so simple.They are very fragile.

This thing is probably not dissimilar to the Loon ones, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_LLC . I had discussions with Loon at the very beginning of their project as they were looking for a energy solution.

If you read that link you'll begin to understand the control strategies so as to get these things to go (or stay) where you want them. Very approximately !

[Ninthace]

The timing is too much of a co-incidence to me. The US has finally started to call China out over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Called it a bigger threat than Russia, and has just struck a deal for bases in the Phillipines. Resistance to the slow coiling Chinese Dragon is growing.

This balloon, with its considerable payload hovering over the continental US, capable or not...is a message.
And the strategic significance of the balloon over Costa Rica. What are they up to?

[mikeoneflying]

n Costa Rica exports account for around 40 percent of GDP. Costa Rica´s main exports are electronic components (18 percent of total exports), medical equipment (7.3 percent), pineapples (7 percent) and bananas (6 percent). Costa Rica´s main export partner is the United States (37 percent of total exports). Others include: Netherlands, Panama, Hong Kong and Nicaragua.

However, always rumours about secret US bases in S.America.

[Baldeep Inminj]

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x740/2f0209e0_0a59_404e_af3e_631c2ee384cc_cfc35ccecdd73acf4083abd 7f375b94beb5fb0fd.jpeg

[RAFEngO74to09]

Biden Admin's indecisive incompetence over this all over US TV now - including comments from all the usual top commentators eg previous SecDef + various retired 3/4-stars.

Looks like they will finally be attempting a shootdown over Atlnatic.

FAA issued ground stop in area - F-22As + F-15Cs + supporting tankers scrambled

R A W S A L E R T S on Twitter: "🚨#BREAKING: The FAA have blocked of airspace off the coast of South Carolina. https://t.co/UVemaCaehM" / Twitter

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoJH2UCagAAMlGF?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Aircraft Spots on Twitter: "Chinese high-altitude surveillance #balloon. USAF KC-135R #AE04B3 57-1473 GASMN02 scrambled from Birmingham, AL. USAF KC-135R #AE0363 60-0341 ABATE98 scrambled from Meridian, MS. USAF F-15s EAGLE01 & 02 scrambled from Barnes ANGB, MA joined up with GASMN02 & ABATE98. https://t.co/kYV1noi0yo" / Twitter

[RAFEngO74to09]

Live excellent quality feed on Fox News now. Probably going to be multiple 20mm gun passes by F-22A and F-15C.
Ground stop is until 1445 EST.

[Ninthace]

n Costa Rica exports account for around 40 percent of GDP. Costa Rica´s main exports are electronic components (18 percent of total exports), medical equipment (7.3 percent), pineapples (7 percent) and bananas (6 percent). Costa Rica´s main export partner is the United States (37 percent of total exports). Others include: Netherlands, Panama, Hong Kong and Nicaragua.

However, always rumours about secret US bases in S.America.
So nothing really

[Wokkafans]

Live excellent quality feed on Fox News now. Probably going to be multiple 20mm gun passes by F-22A and F-15C.
Ground stop is until 1445 EST.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsQaM3i885A&ab_channel=LiveNOWfromFOX

[Fonsini]

F-22s spraying 20mm all over Myrtle Beach. Meh, all you need is a helicopter and a box cutter :}

[pasta]

BBC News reporting that Biden "is facing intense pressure domestically to shoot the object down." What is it with the Americans, thinking that the solution to every problem is to shoot it? It's not as though the US haven't flown plenty of their own weather balloons over China...

[RAFEngO74to09]

Balloon splashed 1438 ET!

[pilotmike]

More likely …. The payload is probably just …. and a wee pump. !
That would be wasted payload. Gravity could take care of matters if the Chinese just wanted to p1$$ all over the USA!

[Wokkafans]

Looked like the payload broke away when the balloon burst - that'll hit the ground hard.

[Ninthace]

Looked like the payload broke away when the balloon burst - that'll hit the ground hard.
I got the same impression.

[Wokkafans]

Missile strike

https://twitter.com/HeyItsMeSalty/status/1621956823447207937?s=20

[MENELAUS]

With a proper breeding techniques and a ratio of, say, ten females to each male, I would guess that we could be back to the present gross national product within, say, 20 years.:)


Thank you Dr Strangelove. It won’t be difficult mein fuhrer.

[langleybaston]

Thank you Dr Strangelove. It won’t be difficult mein fuhrer.
Do you save wicked women? Save ne a few, pease.

[NutLoose]

Probably trying to emulate Branson and be the first Chinese to circumnavigate the world in a balloon, but forgot to tell anyone. ;)

[sir]

handled well IMHO, cool and collected until it was offshore then splash with a conventional regular every day weapon.

[RAFEngO74to09]

F-22A used an AIM-9 to shoot down the balloon.

[Wokkafans]

Footage from another angle.


https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/10tqy7k/video_from_my_friend_of_the_f22s_first_aa_kill/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[Greatman77]

I live in Charlotte, NC. This thing came over us this morning, the US airforce was clearly following and watching it closely, with multiple contrails visible around it. Absolutely surreal...

[Ninthace]

All very anticlimactic, I bet it will be more spectacular when they make the movie. I wonder if there was a sweepstake for who got the honours?

[Baldeep Inminj]

All very anticlimactic, I bet it will be more spectacular when they make the movie. I wonder if there was a sweepstake for who got the honours?

Gotta be the Sqn boss - always take the glory missions…at least mine all did, particularly my 2 female bosses - never to be seen until a high-profile mission appeared and then they were all over it…🤔

True, but ducking and preparing for incoming nevertheless.

[twb3]

Is this the first ever air-to-air kill for the Raptor?

[Wokkafans]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hOXh9wHQ9I&ab_channel=AmbientCoast

[albatross]

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1793x1520/89ebb5ff_13c4_497f_921a_68cb8836efa2_ad694290d9f921e3d42a6ee 8f5fd4bff70b72d28.jpeg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1579x1527/74a5a58e_d45c_4941_8318_cd81baf48fe2_4fd8604fe54239189109d1e 9285692b06c4d96a8.jpeg
Both a Poseidon and a USCG Dolphin helicopter operating in the impact area. The Helicopter appears to be in a low hover.

[421dog]

Is this the first ever air-to-air kill for the Raptor?

Maybe so, but I think Willi Coppens (sorry if I am screwing up the spelling) is still number 1
(as balloon busters go)

[gums]

Salute!

Actchally, If it were a Raptor, then pilot could wear a p-suit or simply pull up and gun the balloon to allow a kinder more gentle descent of the payload for recovery and analysis.

Using an AIM-9X from an F-22 seems overkill, and even an F-16 or F-15 could do a snap-up and an Aim-9. Even back in 1966 we practiced snap=ups versus high targets like U-2, B-57 and even the BOMARC interceptor doing 3.+ M and at 70,000 feet. If we were not cruising above 50,000 ft, we did not need the p-suits and the rules allowed us to go up for the shot and then pull back down to follow all the altitude/pressure rules. BFD.

Anyway, looks like one bullet, one kill. Even versus a stoopid floating balloon.

Gums sends...

[421dog]

It looked like it was 60k or less when it hit the East coast. (Not really sure about the weird secrecy surrounding this event, it makes me uncomfortable. We knew exactly when where and what was going to happen to Payne Stewart and his crew when they were still buzzing along asleep for 6 hrs before they crashed in ND 10 yrs ago)

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1622006517691187201?s=20

[421dog]

Ok, well that even makes it look more duplicitous. What the heck am I missing?

[tartare]

So presumably, F22 pilots would only wear a full pressure suit if expecting to fly at or above FL60 for a while i.e. the Armstrong line?
Otherwise it's pressure breathing etc?

[NutLoose]

Of course all this is assuming it wasn’t transmitting the data home in real time and China already has what they wanted.

[Less Hair]

China might try to politically use it as a bait. Now that the US shot down an overflight they might claim to be authorised to do the same to anything over "their" reefs airspace or similar? There is certainly more behind this. It's all too visible, a show piece.

[Ninthace]

Of course all this is assuming it wasn’t transmitting the data home in real time and China already has what they wanted.
Care to speculate what they wanted as it was known it was there so any sensitive emissions should have been minimised and its track could not exactly have been controlled, so anything sensitive it flew over was pretty much random. The best they could hope for was picking up lots of cell phone calls of people asking each other if they could see it.

[aox]

So if it really was a spy deice, the best thing to do is let if fly cross the whole country, then shoot it down as it leaves

One explanation was they didn't want to risk collateral damage on the ground

Now it is said they want to recover and inspect it, but it will be harder to find

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1622038650425933824?s=20

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1622038650425933824?s=20

[albatross]

So if it really was a spy deice, the best thing to do is let if fly cross the whole country, then shoot it down as it leaves

One explanation was they didn't want to risk collateral damage on the ground

Now it is said they want to recover and inspect it, but it will be harder to find

I think they have a very good position on the impact point in shallow water. The USS Morehead City arrived near the area just about time of impact. No recent up date on position.Shortly after impact a Poseidon was in the area and a USCG helicopter flew a search grid and seemed to then enter a low hover. As per my previous posts.
Lots of folks not under the balloon’s flight path and in the political opposition were calling for shooting it down overland on every channel on which they could get in front of a camera. imagine these same folks outrage if it hit anything or anybody.or even came close to anything. Bringing it down as it left the coast was IMO the best option.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1402x1261/d87fe8bb_8df9_4818_a270_4cfe932af639_7ead4d04eef95760701ec89 5e2af20a16b4bd292.jpeg

[gums]

Salute!

tartare Back in the day, we only had to wear a p-suit for "sustained flight" above 50K and maybe shorter flights way up there like those NF-104 jets. I am not even sure the Streak Eagle guys wore a p-suit and they toped out aroung 100K, certainly above 90K

Our high altitude profile in the VooDoo and 106 was at 49K and go fast, then pull up for the shot. As a target, we cruised at 49K and 1,1M or so for 10 or 15 minutes in basic flying suit.

Well, guess the crew chief can paint a timny balloon on the side of the jet now.

Gums sends...

[MechEngr]

One never can tell when interesting information can be gathered:

We were told to be very careful - not to buy our train ticket in Princeton, for example, because Princeton was a very small station, and if everybody bought train tickets to Albuquerque, New Mexico, in Princeton, there would be some suspicions that something was up. And so everybody bought their tickets somewhere else, except me, because I figured if everybody bought their tickets somewhere else. . .

So when I went to the train station and said, “I want to go to Albuquerque, New Mexico, “ the man says, “Oh, so all this stuff is for you!" We had been shipping out crates full of counters for weeks and expecting that they didn't notice the address was Albuquerque. So at least I explained why it was that we were shipping all those crates; I was going out to Albuquerque. Los Alamos From Below: Reminiscences 1943-1945, by Richard Feynman

"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra

Meanwhile there is no good understanding on the amount and type of information being exfiltrated that the TikTok app has gathered.

[uxb99]

They took out the balloon with a missile. If they wanted to recover it couldn't they have taken it out with guns? Or is that an impossible target?

btw lots of theories, conspiracy theories on social media about this but has anyone considered it might actually be a weather balloon?

[ChrisJ800]

I hope the US govt sends the PRC the bill for clearing up Chinese trash!

[Captain Dart]

I spent 28 years as an airline jock flying into and over China on a regular basis. Observations:

Convoluted air routes to avoid their military bases (not that you could see much as the country is 99% smog).

Sometimes threatening or actually having to declare an emergency in order to get clearance to deviate to avoid thunderstorms.

Narrow, crowded corridors for civvies to fly in with the military controlling the rest of their airspace.

A general impression of a paranoid regime.

My point? I can imagine the squealing from the ChiComms if a huge American ‘weather balloon’ ever overflew their neck of the woods.

[Crosswhinge]

No doubt there will be lots of wailing from the Chinese about bringing it down. Remember China shot down a Cathay Pacific airliner over the sea near Hainan Island in 1954.

[Buster Hyman]

Lots of folks not under the balloon’s flight path and in the political opposition were calling for shooting it down overland on every channel on which they could get in front of a camera. imagine these same folks outrage if it hit anything or anybody.or even came close to anything. Bringing it down as it left the coast was IMO the best option.

However...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11714657/Three-Chinese-spy-balloons-infiltrated-Trump-administration.html

[Hydromet]

No doubt there will be lots of wailing from the Chinese about bringing it down. Remember China shot down a Cathay Pacific airliner over the sea near Hainan Island in 1954.
It's started.
Hong KongCNN — China has expressed its “strong dissatisfaction and protest” against the United States’ decision to shoot down its high-altitude balloon (https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/04/politics/china-spy-balloon-us-latest/index.html), accusing it of “overreacting” and “seriously violating international practice.”

[Hydromet]

I hope the US govt sends the PRC the bill for clearing up Chinese trash!
Why not, The city of Esperance, Western Australia, sent NASA a fine for littering when Skylab broke up there. Some reports say the fine was payed by NASA, others by a DJ who raised funds from listeners. I suspect it was all dtreated in a more light-hearted spirit than this event will be.

Around July 19, 1979, the US space agency team that was in western Australia searching for debris was issued a citation for littering by the Esperance Shire Council in the amount of $400. Though the citation was in jest, the council hoped NASA would pay the fine as a gift for their museum. They didn’t pay. But the fine was finally settled on behalf of NASA in 2009 by a radio host named Scott Barley of Highway Radio when he got his morning listeners to donate the funds.

[Imagegear]

Uneducated question but if the payload module was very large, could it hold a small crew?

IG

[70 Mustang]

But experience has led me to distrust most anything the Pentagon says, or more precisely, what the news media say/says that the Pentagon said.

Reminds me of how Thomas Jefferson wrote in various letters at various times, that in his day, the news media of that time, newspapers, pamphlets and public speeches, were on one day the best defense for a democracy and on the next day, the worst enemy.

Some times some things seldom change.

[admikar]

Why not, The city of Esperance, Western Australia, sent NASA a fine for littering when Skylab broke up there. Some reports say the fine was payed by NASA, others by a DJ who raised funds from listeners. I suspect it was all dtreated in a more light-hearted spirit than this event will be.
But it's US that broke this in the first place. Invoice incoming for property damage?

[DaveReidUK]

They took out the balloon with a missile. If they wanted to recover it couldn't they have taken it out with guns? Or is that an impossible target?

In either case (assuming that hitting it with a gun was feasible), it might well only have been the envelope that was damaged - at least until it hit the sea ...


btw lots of theories, conspiracy theories on social media about this but has anyone considered it might actually be a weather balloon?

Where's the fun in that ? :O

[70 Mustang]

those who popped up and said how "empty" Alaska was, obviously do not live there nor have family living there.

With lawyers ready to jump out from behind every tree, I thought it quite sensible to wait until it was past the coast before it was shot down.

Sod's law is alive and thriving.

Regarding the comparison to the regret of the radar observers at Pearl Harbor, I suspect the technology and its applications are a tad more developed and advanced than then. On the other hand, there is an ongoing undercurrent of suspicion that "they" knew exactly what was happening and let it happen due to the rules of democracy which limited the actions of that current US government.

Then again, many documents are still kept out of public view.

The one thing I'm relatively confident of, is that there is more that our government does not tell us and actively misleads us about than what they are honest about.

[Dufo]

Hopefully everyone will reveal more evidence it was actually a spy balloon than they did with WMD in Iraq few years ago.

[tartare]

Salute!

tartare Back in the day, we only had to wear a p-suit for "sustained flight" above 50K and maybe shorter flights way up there like those NF-104 jets. I am not even sure the Streak Eagle guys wore a p-suit and they toped out aroung 100K, certainly above 90K

Our high altitude profile in the VooDoo and 106 was at 49K and go fast, then pull up for the shot. As a target, we cruised at 49K and 1,1M or so for 10 or 15 minutes in basic flying suit.

Well, guess the crew chief can paint a timny balloon on the side of the jet now.

Gums sends...

Thank you Gums - always appreciate your contribution.
You were flying fast jets before I was born!

[639]

If it did carry any equipment of a sensitive nature would it not have some self destruct mechanism? or have I watched too much fifties American TV?

[Wokkafans]

Looks like Yemen, Japan and India have had similar visits in recent years.

https://twitter.com/manamuntu/status/1621402366766620672?s=20

https://twitter.com/mbarksalh20/status/1517599179790561280?s=20

https://twitter.com/ReutersAsia/status/1273231420668776449?s=20

[Brewster Buffalo]

Uneducated question but if the payload module was very large, could it hold a small crew?

IG

Like Dr Evil's mini me? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mini-Me

[henra]

One explanation was they didn't want to risk collateral damage on the ground

Now it is said they want to recover and inspect it, but it will be harder to find
The good thing is it will be much more intact than if they had shot it down over land. Which might be -besides collateral damage- the reason they waited for it to be over sea. They shot it down close to shore so I'm sure they want to have a closer look at it. Chances are there will be not much to see, though. It was surely clear to the Chinese that it would be shot down and retrieved.

[NutLoose]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/822x679/image_74cd59eef8208221971694a39575fd80de0b1a31.jpeg

[WHBM]

BBC News reporting that it "flew over several sensitive military installations".

Presumably, being a balloon, then like any other balloon it just went where the wind took it?
Just shows how many military sites there are in the US.

I'm waiting for it to be reported that it narrowly missed a school. At least the finale provides plenty of opportunity for news editors to use their favourites, "plunged" and "plummeted".

[chevvron]

Just shows how many military sites there are in the US.

I'm waiting for it to be reported that it narrowly missed a school. At least the finale provides plenty of opportunity for news editors to use their favourites, "plunged" and "plummeted".
Or worse still, a puppy farm.

[treadigraph]

I'm waiting for it to be reported that it narrowly missed a school.

Of fish? I'm sure it did! :p

[MechEngr]

A question occurs to me - one that is unlikely to be answered by those who know - Does an F-22 have an auto-target for the gun?

That is, can the pilot pick a target on the radar, have the computer analyze the ballistics, and then the pilot hits the go-button and goes hand's off for the aircraft to let the plane take over and fire the shot? No need to "walk in" the rounds on an airborne target.

I've seen similar systems for rifles where the operator makes an initial target point selection, then uses cursor controls to fine tune the aiming point, and finally pulls the trigger. However the gun doesn't fire until the sight system detects the gun is correctly aimed. The gun bobs about as the user breaths and their heart beats so the user just needs to ensure on some sweep that the alignment, even momentary, occurs.

[TCAS FAN]

The Chinese have claimed ownership. Said it was a wether balloon gone astray. I had heard altitude was 60000.

If they claimed ownership and it is a civilian asset is there any evidence that the PRC gave any advance warning to the US?

[LowandSlow1]

Educate me, please.

It’s been reported the balloon was downed using an AIM-9x Sidewinder air to air missile.

As that missile uses passive IR technology to acquire and track the target, why use that missile instead of an AIM-120 AMRAAM?

My question is obviously based on wondering how much heat is produced by that balloon and its payload at 60k feet such that the Sidewinder could lock on and track it?

Cost aside, wouldn’t the AIM-120 have been a more logical choice, i.e., radar guided versus IR guided?

[ETOPS]

Does an F-22 have an auto-target for the gun?

Tech log entry after failed strafing run...."Gun NOT FITTED" :ugh:

[Just This Once...]

F-22A cannot fly without the gun fitted, so an unlikely entry in the tech log...

[ETOPS]

I know - think external pod.

[Darren_P]

Apparently, the gun port on the F-22 can’t be opened above 50k & the shot was taken at 58k which explains why an AIM-9 was used.

[mickjoebill]

Why was it not forced down over Montana? Was it not feasible to put a few holes in it to bring it down slowly?
Was it bought down over water because the US knew it had no spying capabilities?

Mjb

[Ninthace]

I think they only come down slowly in movies

[henra]

I think they only come down slowly in movies
this. Once the fabric is damaged the rupture will propagate.

[harbour cotter]

We all know that the Chinese play the long game. I doubt anything of value would be found in the wreckage. The balloon could have served many functions, but perhaps one of them is merely a trial to test the potential of future Balloon raids using prevailing winds. The Japanese ineffective fire raids are well known, but what is less well known is the successful British Balloon raids on Germany during World War ii. Certainly the most cost effective bombing campaign of the war. Balloons with wire attachments, sometimes with a small charge. They caused a lot of damage to crops during the summer as well as bringing down power and telephone lines and even destroying a power station on one occasion. There were numerous German forces (civilian and military) tied down in trying to contain and mitigate the damage. They were dispatched by WAAF's (I may be incorrect on this but it was certainly women from one of the Forces) of whom I think at least one died. The damage caused was out of all proportion to the effort and cost involved. They simply used prevailing winds. I think Churchill urged caution in case the Germans retaliated, but it would be very rare indeed for this to occur simply because there were few, if any, prevailing winds toward the U.K. from Germany. Even the Germans were surprised that Britain did not make more use of them. Obviously they could not be directed and many found their way to neutral Switzerland and beyond who complained bitterly. But if China were to use them on a widespread campaign, for example releasing a million simultaneously, then I am sure it would cause chaos and yet be comparatively cheap to undertake without the need of modern weaponry. Just speculation of course, but it is a possibility. Would any country be prepared for that?

[Hilife]

Presumably, being a balloon, then like any other balloon it just went where the wind took it?

Balloon pilots are able to use varying winds at different altitudes for directional control (clearly within limitations and not an exact science) and even high-up using Jetstream’s, so for me, the balloons incursion of US airspace was no accident.

Whether it be public/press or government/DoD response to this overfly, there can be no doubt, China will have learnt plenty from this episode.

[Jackonicko]

https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1622038650425933824



"Frank One, Splash One, TOI One..." "That is a (inaudible) kill, the balloon is completely destroyed." What's the inaudible fragment?

There's audio, tweeted by a user thenewarea51....

[kiwi grey]

Educate me, please.
It’s been reported the balloon was downed using an AIM-9x Sidewinder air to air missile.
As that missile uses passive IR technology to acquire and track the target, why use that missile instead of an AIM-120 AMRAAM?
My question is obviously based on wondering how much heat is produced by that balloon and its payload at 60k feet such that the Sidewinder could lock on and track it?
I would surmise that the attack run was made from the west, and we know it was from below the balloon.
Hence the balloon envelope would be reflecting the afternoon sun (it was ~14:40 local) and would be relatively warm against the easterly sky, also the only such object in view. Presumably the temperature difference was enough for the AIM-9X imaging infra-red sensor to resolve a 'target'

[India Four Two]

From a R&N post:

Here's a link to the weather blog of a University of Washington climatologist in which he analyzes the balloon path and how changing altitude into different wind directions could have steered it.

https://cliffmass.********.com/

PPRuNe doesn't like the "spotted blog" site, for some unknown reason. Here's the Tiny URL:

https://tinyurl.com/5erpsb7a (https://tinyurl.com/3mc8328h)

[DaveReidUK]

Balloon pilots are able to use varying winds at different altitudes for directional control (clearly within limitations and not an exact science) and even high-up using Jetstream’s, so for me, the balloons incursion of US airspace was no accident.

Yes, that fact has been mentioned several times already in the thread. AFAIK, nobody has disputed it.

But of course that doesn't actually prove that the balloon was under such control. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't.

See above post, for example.

[Flyhighfirst]

I spent 28 years as an airline jock flying into and over China on a regular basis. Observations:

Convoluted air routes to avoid their military bases (not that you could see much as the country is 99% smog).

Sometimes threatening or actually having to declare an emergency in order to get clearance to deviate to avoid thunderstorms.

Narrow, crowded corridors for civvies to fly in with the military controlling the rest of their airspace.

A general impression of a paranoid regime.

My point? I can imagine the squealing from the ChiComms if a huge American ‘weather balloon’ ever overflew their neck of the woods.

What a load of tosh. 99% of the country is amazing beautiful. 1% is smog. I guess on all those layovers you did nothing else but stay in your hotel and…. Can leave that to the imagination. Taking the politics out of it, China is an absolutely amazing country with great, friendly people. The government might be messed up, but then so are the UK, US, Russian… and quite a few others.

[Captain Dart]

The messed-up government is what 99% of my post was aimed at :rolleyes:

[rattman]

https://twitter.com/check_gon/status/1622179346923520000

[India Four Two]

From the BBC:Republican politicians. meanwhile, accused US President Joe Biden of a dereliction of duty for allowing the balloon to traverse the country unhindered.

Marco Rubio, vice-chair of the Senate intelligence committee, told CNN it was a "brazen effort" by China to embarrass the president ahead of his State of the Union address on Tuesday.

Brenda Bethune, the mayor of Myrtle Beach which is near to where the object was shot down, said: "I do have concerns about how the federal government can allow a foreign adversary to fly uninterrupted from Montana to our doorstep."

She said she hoped the government would explain how this happened and how they will prevent it from happening again.


USAF taking potshots at balloon causes politicians to take potshots at the President. Yet another example of the depressing nature of politicians these days.

I’m sure Mayor Bethune would have been more than concerned if the balloon had been shot down over land and killed one of her constituents.

[NutLoose]

I still think it must have been transmitting in real time, after all how else could China guarantee a successful landing of a balloon, we have moved on from From Ice Station Zebra and little capsules with film reels inside them.

[uffington sb]

Harbour cotter

i think you are referring to this.

https://youtu.be/ioshB6dhe-0

[MAINJAFAD]

We all know that the Chinese play the long game. I doubt anything of value would be found in the wreckage. The balloon could have served many functions, but perhaps one of them is merely a trial to test the potential of future Balloon raids using prevailing winds. The Japanese ineffective fire raids are well known, but what is less well known is the successful British Balloon raids on Germany during World War ii. Certainly the most cost effective bombing campaign of the war. Balloons with wire attachments, sometimes with a small charge. They caused a lot of damage to crops during the summer as well as bringing down power and telephone lines and even destroying a power station on one occasion. There were numerous German forces (civilian and military) tied down in trying to contain and mitigate the damage. They were dispatched by WAAF's (I may be incorrect on this but it was certainly women from one of the Forces) of whom I think at least one died. The damage caused was out of all proportion to the effort and cost involved. They simply used prevailing winds. I think Churchill urged caution in case the Germans retaliated, but it would be very rare indeed for this to occur simply because there were few, if any, prevailing winds toward the U.K. from Germany. Even the Germans were surprised that Britain did not make more use of them. Obviously they could not be directed and many found their way to neutral Switzerland and beyond who complained bitterly. But if China were to use them on a widespread campaign, for example releasing a million simultaneously, then I am sure it would cause chaos and yet be comparatively cheap to undertake without the need of modern weaponry. Just speculation of course, but it is a possibility. Would any country be prepared for that?

Project was called Operation Outward and was run by the Royal Navy. The Balloons were obsolete weather balloons from RN Stocks that would have otherwise been scrapped. Most of the ordnance carried. the altitude control system and weapon release systems were very Heath Robinson. The only real explosive ordnance used were left over small mines for the Airborne Minefield systems pushed by Lindermann (Mutton and alike),The incendiary weapons were made out of beer bottles and large socks (sealed with tar) which were filled with incendiary material and an impact detonator. The wire weapon was 700ft of light hemp twine with 300 feet of piano wire at the end in a can with some water ballast in another can. The balloon climbed to around 18000ft after release at which point a rope affixed around expanded circumference of the balloon pulled taught and opened the gas release valve. Also at launch a time fuse was lit which burnt for around 24 hours. At that point, the Balloon should be around 1000 feet up and descending. The wire was released with one end of the twine still attached to the balloon and the wire touching the ground. The ballast release was also activated which would release the water at a rate that would keep the balloon at 1000 feet and allow the balloon to drift far enough to ensure some form of electrical transmission line got shorted to either the ground or to another phase line on the same gird line. The project was stopped in 1944 as the British needed the Hydrogen for other things like Barrage Balloons for D-Day and V-1 defence. The launch crews were mostly WRENS.

Why Ukraine are not using these types of weapon is beyond me..

On a lighter note.....

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x622/ddd_418b516a27a5f04c40cb20ac2ffc19a342fa6af7.jpg
.

[Stu666]

I spent 28 years as an airline jock flying into and over China on a regular basis. Observations:

Convoluted air routes to avoid their military bases (not that you could see much as the country is 99% smog).

Sometimes threatening or actually having to declare an emergency in order to get clearance to deviate to avoid thunderstorms.

Narrow, crowded corridors for civvies to fly in with the military controlling the rest of their airspace.

A general impression of a paranoid regime.

My point? I can imagine the squealing from the ChiComms if a huge American ‘weather balloon’ ever overflew their neck of the woods.

Exactly, and I am reminded that in the 2001 Hainan Island incident, they literally crashed a fighter into an EP-3E intelligence asset, that wasn't even over Chinese air space, such was their paranoia.

[Ascend Charlie]

"Our barroon fright compretery successful, now under water off east coast. Now we risten to US submarines."

[melmothtw]

Presumably, being a balloon, then like any other balloon it just went where the wind took it?

Balloon pilots are able to use varying winds at different altitudes for directional control (clearly within limitations and not an exact science) and even high-up using Jetstream’s, so for me, the balloons incursion of US airspace was no accident.

Whether it be public/press or government/DoD response to this overfly, there can be no doubt, China will have learnt plenty from this episode.

This was not a hot air balloon.

[DuncanDoenitz]

"Our barroon fright compretery successful, now under water off east coast. Now we risten to US submarines."

In an age of Woke nonsense, reassuring to know that the ghost of Benny Hill is alive and well.

[Yellow Son]

Press reports say F22 used Sidewinder. F22's gun would surely have been cheaper; were there special reasons for choosing a missile?

[Stu666]

Press reports say F22 used Sidewinder. F22's gun would surely have been cheaper; were there special reasons for choosing a missile?

Gun door on F-22 can't be opened above a certain height, don't recall exact figure but I believe the balloon was at a higher altitude than this limit. They also wanted to ensure separation of the payload and balloon; this I imagine would've been tricky to achieve with a gun.

[tutgby]

Don’t really care about the cost of a single 9X when you’re a superpower…

[Asturias56]

"Convoluted air routes to avoid their military bases (not that you could see much as the country is 99% smog).
Sometimes threatening or actually having to declare an emergency in order to get clearance to deviate to avoid thunderstorms.
Narrow, crowded corridors for civvies to fly in with the military controlling the rest of their airspace."

Sounds like the UK in the not so distant past...................

[B Fraser]

This was not a hot air balloon.

Precisely. Left with low plus right with height only works up to around 2,000 feet at best. Remember your met exams and the geostrophic wind ? Plus you need someone to work the burners and keep an eye on the GPS. Johnny Chinaman seemed not to have included either.

In any case, I found it only worked 70% of the time.

[Yellow Son]

Gun door on F-22 can't be opened above a certain height, don't recall exact figure but I believe the balloon was at a higher altitude than this limit. They also wanted to ensure separation of the payload and balloon; this I imagine would've been tricky to achieve with a gun.
Thanks, Stu666, I didn't know that. I imagine there's a speed limit, too, but I don't suppose that was relevant here..

[Recc]

Precisely. Left with low plus right with height only works up to around 2,000 feet at best. Remember your met exams and the geostrophic wind ? Plus you need someone to work the burners and keep an eye on the GPS. Johnny Chinaman seemed not to have included either.

In any case, I found it only worked 70% of the time.

I believe that passive navigation has advanced a great deal in recent years. In particular, look at the (claimed) capabilities of the Aerostar stratospheric balloons. Indeed, they have been awarded a number of DoD contracts in recent years. I'm sure that China has been looking at similar capabilities.

[WideScreen]

Doesn't sound much like a weather balloon.
I read elsewhere that the US doesn't want to shoot it down because they are gaining massive intelligence from their observations.
That being said, photos from 60k ft. could be much more revealing than a spy satellite 100+ miles up... There are several ICBM missile sites in and around Montana...

In my opinion, the capabilities of this balloon are probably minimal and not the point. This is a strong statement from China - they can put their hardware directly over the US unopposed, and visible for all to see.

Powerful.

I can’t really understand what the problem is. How is floating a weather balloon/surveillance balloon over someones airspace any different to having surveillance satellite in a LEO?

I’m pretty sure that if it is >FL600, the there is very little risk. After all, i’d have a guess that the US overflies many other countries >FL600 with both manned and unmanned surveillance systems.

Now, if sovereign airspace had a internationally recognised vertical limit, then this incident would be different.

Presumably, Western "spy" satellites are reported to be able to "read" car number plates. This requires optical lens systems to an extreme perfection.

I didn't check, though I can imagine, China's optics quality lags significantly behind Western capabilities. With, the consequence, a significantly lower image resolution for their spy photo's is obtained. (Can be a lot of pixels, though, when the optics aren't delivering a clear image to the optical sensor, all those extra pixels tend to be without value).

Moving the optics+camera to 60-70K feet altitude, will make the resulting resolution significantly higher. Western optics+camera's get to the point, so to say, the photo's show scratch marks on the mounting screws of the car number plates and Chinese stuff is finally able to read the car number plates.

Not to forget, the (near vacuum) atmosphere between 60-70K feet and 300+km gives (how minimal) optic distortion, which is avoided, when the optics+camera are dangling under a balloon.

So, yep, such a spy balloon does have its spy advantages.

Given the size of what is dangling below the balloon (with quite a lot of solar panels, implying significant equipment power consumption), this balloon might be more than just regular weather measurements with a radio for home communication. Data processing for weather measurements is done "at home", not in the air.

Equipment to think about, given the amount of solar panels:
- Operating environment stabilizing equipment (Thermally, humidity, vibration and the like).
- High power transmitting equipment, required for high-volume data transfers.
- (Limited) flight-path-control options, IE electric engines + batteries.

These are items not so often associated with weather balloons.

[212man]

How does a near vacuum cause optical distortion?

[El Grifo]

If it is a runaway "Weather Balloon" as we are told that China claims, the surely the Chinese should be thanking the US for removing a potential threat to aviation, which would surely be the case as the balloon's altitude eventually decays !

El Grifo

[tdracer]

Don’t really care about the cost of a single 9X when you’re a superpower…
Besides, it's a great training opportunity/functional test opportunity. Normally you need to pay for the target drone...

[ethicalconundrum]

However...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11714657/Three-Chinese-spy-balloons-infiltrated-Trump-administration.html

A bit more detail is in order.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/02/treason-rep-waltz-says-dod-told-china-spy-balloons-crossed-us-trump-years-gen-mattis-not-tell-trump-thought/

Summary: Yes, there were incursions by spy balloons in the prev administration. Yes, they were detected by the US intelligence community incl the armed forces. NO they did NOT advise the prev WH admin or president, for apparent political purposes.

[muppetofthenorth]

A bit more detail is in order.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/02/treason-rep-waltz-says-dod-told-china-spy-balloons-crossed-us-trump-years-gen-mattis-not-tell-trump-thought/

Summary: Yes, there were incursions by spy balloons in the prev administration. Yes, they were detected by the US intelligence community incl the armed forces. NO they did NOT advise the prev WH admin or president, for apparent political purposes.
Reading that article made me lose brain cells. I wouldn't trust that site to find itself on Google, never mind any degree of accuracy.

[albatross]

The former US president could have destroyed the balloon simply by thinking about it.

As an aside don’t some folks install ADS-B on high altitude WX balloons? Seems like a safe/friendly thing to do if your intentions are honourable.
Plus if your WX Balloon is blown off course and outside your national boundaries wouldn’t it be a good idea to advise other countries under potential flight paths of such an event?

The Chinese seem to repeat endlessly that the balloon “Went off course”. However, no so called ‘reporter’ I have seen ever asks: “Where was the balloon bound for when it ‘went off course’ and how were you controlling its movements?” It seems to be a very obvious question to ask.

[visibility3miles]

Saturday Night Live take in the balloon:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG3kUa8uM4c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG3kUa8uM4c

[ethicalconundrum]

Reading that article made me lose brain cells. I wouldn't trust that site to find itself on Google, never mind any degree of accuracy.

I'm sure you understand that this site goes the extra mile because people will automatically question them as they don't follow the generic media line. Here is the quote from a US house representative, where there is video of his exchange with a different media source:

"Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL): My office has been briefed by the office of the Secretary of Defense of the current Pentagon that it happened over Florida, it happened over Texas, and that it’s happened before. We have more detailed questions but what is unclear, Stuart, at this point is, did the Pentagon under the Trump Administration brief the Trump White House and give them the option to take action or did they decide not to brief them for whatever reason? And there is some speculation, I talked to Trump administration officials over the weekend, that the Pentagon deliberately did it because they thought Trump would be too provocative and too aggressive. So that’s what we need to get to the bottom of and one person that I’m waiting to hear from that we haven’t heard from that list is former Secretary of Defense, General Mattis who was the secretary during this time period. What did he know and what did he decide to pass on and brief to the president."

So far, Gen Mattis has been incommunicado WRT this official statement of previous incursions. Some perspective is in order, as the named Gen Mattis is also the same poltroon who decided to call the good ole buddy Chinese Chairman Xi after the 2020 election to warn the Chairman that he would interfere with any action taken by the Trump WH directed at China. So, we already know he's a traitor, just at this point if he has always been a traitor. And, if there were overflights by China during the prev administration, given the general hatred by everyone of Trump - wouldn't it have made a huge, massive, giant media splash at the time to discredit the then current prez? So, they didn't publicize if for anti-Trump messaging, and they didn't tell Trump for their own political ends, or they in fact did tell Trump and he did nothing about it. Given his well stated political views on relations with China? hmmmmm.

[Topcliffe Kid]

....Not to forget, the (near vacuum) atmosphere between 60-70K feet and 300+km gives (how minimal) optic distortion, which is avoided, when the optics+camera are dangling under a balloon.....

Surely most distortion will occur in the lower atmosphere where man-made effects (rising heat etc) and natural turbulance exist?

[ApolloHeli]

Don’t really care about the cost of a single 9X when you’re a superpower…
It was probably nearing the end of its shelf life :E

[galaxy flyer]

Thanks, Stu666, I didn't know that. I imagine there's a speed limit, too, but I don't suppose that was relevant here..


At 58,000’ air density is thin such that the F-22 would need about 220 KEAS to stay airborne and have any maneuvering capability. That equivalent airspeed equals M 1.2 and 260-ish calibrated. All boils down to a true airspeed of around 670 knots. So, a gun attack, if the gun opened, would be closing on the target at about 1200 feet per second and would open fire around 2,000’ range. No room for safe escape, high risk of collision.

the next problem with the gun is projectile dispersion, risk of hitting the payload. 50,000’ is limit for opening the gun door.

The AIM-9X can guide of light contrast in addition to IR, and can be targeted by datalink from the F-22 radar.

[Load Toad]

If it is a runaway "Weather Balloon" as we are told that China claims, the surely the Chinese should be thanking the US for removing a potential threat to aviation, which would surely be the case as the balloon's altitude eventually decays !

El Grifo

The PRC/CCP will seek to be outraged about anything it can and certainly won't thank the US. Most of what its spokespeople say is to please The Big Boss or is for domestic consumption...or to be disingenuous and play the victim card. They knew what could happen with this 'weather balloon, they've certainly done it before and now they are manufacturing outrage to save face and avoid feeling shame. If they think they can get away with it they will keep doing it. There is no concept of 'wrong & right' as you or I may conceive it. The nearest you will get is 'As long as I'm not found out it doesn't matter'.

[MechEngr]

At 58,000’ air density is thin such that the F-22 would need about 220 KEAS to stay airborne and have any maneuvering capability. That equivalent airspeed equals M 1.2 and 260-ish calibrated. All boils down to a true airspeed of around 670 knots. So, a gun attack, if the gun opened, would be closing on the target at about 1200 feet per second and would open fire around 2,000’ range. No room for safe escape, high risk of collision.

the next problem with the gun is projectile dispersion, risk of hitting the payload. 50,000’ is limit for opening the gun door.

The AIM-9X can guide of light contrast in addition to IR, and can be targeted by datalink from the F-22 radar.

That's why I was asking about the computer aided targeting - one could set up the target based on radar from several miles back, line up as if to pass the balloon on one side (or below), and then turn (or pull up) so the gun sweeps across the target and the firing solution computer pulls the trigger when the round would pass through the target space. The plane's path would not line up for more than a fraction of a second and would carry off to the side. Collision and a 2000ft approach is clearly a problem if it requires Skywalker to decide when to pull the trigger, but not for HAL. Even better if HAL was told the plan and handled the maneuver from the initial line-up. The balloon, being the target, should offer a large enough margin for the timing to work out.

[WideScreen]

....Not to forget, the (near vacuum) atmosphere between 60-70K feet and 300+km gives (how minimal) optic distortion, which is avoided, when the optics+camera are dangling under a balloon.....

Surely most distortion will occur in the lower atmosphere where man-made effects (rising heat etc) and natural turbulance exist?
Yes, of course, distortion in the lower atmosphere is highly relevant, though also above 60-70K feet, there is some distortion due to particles. Don't forget, the camera/optics "views" a kind of cone, so the higher up, the more the same optical details do go through a much smaller "beam" of space. IE the same concentration of particles not relevant for optical distortion near earth will have a much bigger impact higher up, in the smaller sized optical cone.

Edit: Have a look at a Chinese spy expert, explaining the advantages of spy balloons (including better resolutions):

CNN reporter asks Chinese official about suspected spy balloon. (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/06/china/china-response-suspected-spy-balloon-intl-hnk/index.html)

[ChrisJ800]

This was not a hot air balloon.
its a balloon creating a lot of hot air!
and isnt USA the main supplier of helium?

[ORAC]

Best detailed photo released so far.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1079x1336/image_2b794493d4e140916335581323148ee5b076b029.jpeg

[wiggy]

That's why I was asking about the computer aided targeting - one could set up the target based on radar from several miles back, line up as if to pass the balloon on one side (or below), and then turn (or pull up) so the gun sweeps across the target and the firing solution computer pulls the trigger when the round would pass through the target space. The plane's path would not line up for more than a fraction of a second and would carry off to the side. Collision and a 2000ft approach is clearly a problem if it requires Skywalker to decide when to pull the trigger, but not for HAL. Even better if HAL was told the plan and handled the maneuver from the initial line-up. The balloon, being the target, should offer a large enough margin for the timing to work out.

I'd be thinking more in term of KISS, or in other words, why even think of making it that complicated? I'd also be wondering how much RF associated stuff, especially related to fire control, you'd want to be squirting at a possibly intelligence gathering balloon.

Simpler way would be pilot points the aircraft in the direction of the balloon, designates the target in suitable way, pulls the trigger at a suitable distance. missile launches, senses target (see below), meanwhile pilot rolls aircraft away and heads off home for tea, toast and medals. I'm not sure why guns would enter into the thinking...

And to emphasise the point made by myself earlier and another poster upthread, the likes of Raytheon have moved on from using dumb seeker heads that sense something pushing out a lot of energy at the longer IR wavelengths (e.g. produced by an object at jet pipe temperature). They're now using imaging arrays capable of working in the near visual IR and possibly the visual range ....The balloon would probably be an easy target, especially against a contrasting (in both visual and in the IR ) background.

[Haraka]

One defuser tactic might be for the USA to publically state that the status of the wreckage that was recovered was indeterminate regarding providing positive proof of the balloon's function as a reconnaissance or a meteorological platform.



Then behind the scenes give the full story of any documented proof to the appropriste Chinese agency.

[ORAC]

Hmm.

What benefit is there to the government, military or security agencies to defuse the situation?

[Chiefttp]

I find it funny that the “media” is reporting that 3 times during the Trump administration, Undetected Chinese ballon’s crossed the U.S. If they were undetected how did they know it happened 3 times.


I love this word “Undetected”. Sounds just like a Who’s On First skit.

“How did you know it even happened if it was undetected?”
-“Because we didn’t see it.”
“Then you detected it.”
-“No, it was undetected because we didn’t see it”
“So how did you know it was there?”
-“Because we didn’t see it.”

[TheWestCoast]

In an age of Woke nonsense, reassuring to know that the ghost of Benny Hill is alive and well.

Define "woke" for us, please. Is it reassuring to see someone else being racist? Is that a comforting feeling for you?

[MechEngr]

I'd be thinking more in term of KISS, or in other words, why even think of making it that complicated? I'd also be wondering how much RF associated stuff, especially related to fire control, you'd want to be squirting at a possibly intelligence gathering balloon.

Simpler way would be pilot points the aircraft in the direction of the balloon, designates the target in suitable way, pulls the trigger at a suitable distance. missile launches, senses target (see below), meanwhile pilot rolls aircraft away and heads off home for tea, toast and medals. I'm not sure why guns would enter into the thinking...

And to emphasise the point made by myself earlier and another poster upthread, the likes of Raytheon have moved on from using dumb seeker heads that sense something pushing out a lot of energy at the longer IR wavelengths (e.g. produced by an object at jet pipe temperature). They're now using imaging arrays capable of working in the near visual IR and possibly the visual range ....The balloon would probably be an easy target, especially against a contrasting (in both visual and in the IR ) background.

The envelope itself will be practically transparent in IR. The seeker found the instrument platform and destroyed that.

The reason for trajectory planning for a gun? Because not every problem benefits from an air-to-air missile. To recover the instrument package with the least damage a few shots (they can make multiple passes) would ventilate the balloon to a suitable descent rate.

[Ninthace]

The envelope itself will be practically transparent in IR. The seeker found the instrument platform and destroyed that.

The reason for trajectory planning for a gun? Because not every problem benefits from an air-to-air missile. To recover the instrument package with the least damage a few shots (they can make multiple passes) would ventilate the balloon to a suitable descent rate.
The descent rate could become unsuitable as the envelope entered the lower atmosphere, Boyle being Boyle and the mass of gas being decreased.

[212man]

Best detailed photo released so far.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1079x1336/image_2b794493d4e140916335581323148ee5b076b029.jpeg
Anyone seen a translation? Right character appears to mean ‘center’ but can’t find the left one.

[MENELAUS]

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x1408/375a7df8_9977_43bf_a03b_b72612ffe245_8588d112fab4382472bd4d8 69194109ab44733fb.jpeg
Or close enough

[MechEngr]

Anyone seen a translation? Right character appears to mean ‘center’ but can’t find the left one.

The left one is clearly a pictograph of a camera, indicating the world "Spy."

(I'm here all week. Try the veal.)

[212man]

The left one is clearly a pictograph of a camera, indicating the world "Spy."

(I'm here all week. Try the veal.)
Hopefully not from a crate?

[SWBKCB]

The Chineses are smuggling veal reared in crates using balloons? :eek:

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/CllrBattley/status/1623018204003016704?s=20&t=h9OuEM6ea9j-6w_2Drxa1w


https://twitter.com/CllrBattley/status/1623018204003016704?s=20&t=h9OuEM6ea9j-6w_2Drxa1w

[mike1964]

https://scontent-akl1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/328534969_880679966501644_1429976838649805752_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s720x720&_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=Qj7OrD1Dl3cAX95nbHB&_nc_ht=scontent-akl1-1.xx&oh=00_AfAjqTzAxqa6F_lizk_NUNr48AnvHZrzD38xoAf8tnTTjA&oe=63E8418B

[judyjudy]

Anyone seen a translation? Right character appears to mean ‘center’ but can’t find the left one.

”zhong gong” - abbreviation for “Chinese Communist Party”

[judyjudy]

Actually, In thinking about it, “zhong gong” could mean:

CCP “zhong guo gong chan dang”

or

PRC “zhong hua ren min gong he guo”

I’ve seen it to mean both

[212man]

Actually, In thinking about it, “zhong gong” could mean:

CCP “zhong guo gong chan dang”

or

PRC “zhong hua ren min gong he guo”

I’ve seen it to mean both

makes sense. I thought the ‘center’ was probably going to get further translation