The true state of play of the German military

[NutLoose]

It makes frightening reading and is a bit to large to post in its entirety here, and you thought the MOD was bad.
It also partly explains Germany’s reluctance in sending equipment to Ukraine, they are in effect a “paper Tiger,” or should that read Leopard..

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-bad-news-bundeswehr-an-examination-of-the-truly-dire-state-of-germany-s-military-a-df92eaaf-e3f9-464d-99a3-ef0c27dcc797

[Not_a_boffin]

Not really news. Has been this way for at least a decade.

Shotgun Uschi had a large part to play in this as well.

A good argument against recreating BAOR. If the Boxheads can't be bothered to defend themselves, why should we do it for them?

[B Fraser]

I wonder whatever happened to her? No sane individual would ever give her another position of responsibility......oh wait a minute :uhoh:

[India Four Two]

A fascinating and disturbing article.

I do like the way the reporter writes:

Now, it is time for Lambrecht to go before the cameras and finally do what she came to do. Shower herself with praise.

:)​​​​​​​

[farefield]

If the Boxheads can't be bothered to defend themselves

Their leader was a commie sympathiser who made numerous trips to Moscow 40 odd years ago. He's doing what he was told. Don't know what Mutti Merkel was up to all these years.

[henra]

It makes frightening reading and is a bit to large to post in its entirety here, and you thought the MOD was bad.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-bad-news-bundeswehr-an-examination-of-the-truly-dire-state-of-germany-s-military-a-df92eaaf-e3f9-464d-99a3-ef0c27dcc797
And the sad thing none of these traitors will be publicly 'hung beneath the Brandenburger Tor' for high treason or will at least be held accountable. If they had the slightest honour in them they would do seppuku... But instead they will instead get a good pension and live happily and well from that. Drives me mad.

[Less Hair]

It would be better to find out why strategic assessments and arms programs went so wrong and who was behind it. Defence budgets were on record levels for years so it was not any lack of funding to blame. What they had was just not well spent.

[henra]

Don't know what Mutti Merkel was up to all these years.
This also completely puzzles me. In an interview last year she said she was well aware that Putin is a dangerous man. But it was exactly under her control that the German Armed Forces were demolished and that maximum dependency of Russian Gas was established. Refinery infrastructure and the biggest Gas reservoirs were sold off to Gazprom as late as 2019. The German provider for nuclear fuels was sold to Russia. And the list goes on and on.
And all that was after invasion of Crimea&Donbass. You can't make the stoopid sh*t up that top politicians are doing.
In my eyes she would be another top candidate for being trialed for treason.

[_Agrajag_]

It would be better to find out why strategic assessments and arms programs went so wrong and who was behind it. Defence budgets were on record levels for years so it was not any lack of funding to blame. What they had was just not well spent.


Very much this.

The combination of a great deal of technical expertise and a strong view from within the Federal Government that re-armament was likely to cause offence to Germany's allies created a perfect environment for certain people with influence to profiteer. I saw a small example of this working as a contractor with H&K for a time. If we believe that the UK arms industry has few scruples time spent with a German arms company would show that we are paragons of virtue by comparison.

Money has flowed from the federal government into the pockets of the smart people in the German arms industry for years. Providing Germany with an effective defence capability was way down their agenda. The restrictions placed on Germany with respect to offensive arms gave them the perfect excuse. Should be no surprise that the outcome has been a capability mostly just in name. Not unique to Germany, either, lest anyone thinks I'm singling them out.

[henra]

It would be better to find out why strategic assessments and arms programs went so wrong and who was behind it. Defence budgets were on record levels for years so it was not any lack of funding to blame. What they had was just not well spent.
They spent it deliberately on any sh*t but heavy arms. They created children day care centers with the money. And fed thousands of civil servants pushing papers from left to right. They payed dozens of millions for consultants and power points. They only bought stuff that is not suitable for alliance or national defence even after annexation of Crimea and Donbass.The F125 fregates where the last one was commissioned end of last year are Hotel- Ships. Painted grey. For close to a billion Euro per copy. Insanity.
And they destroyed the structures that would have checked and corrected these bad directions and decisions. All that was not an accident. That was on purpose.

[MJ89]

Not really news. Has been this way for at least a decade.

Shotgun Uschi had a large part to play in this as well.

A good argument against recreating BAOR. If the Boxheads can't be bothered to defend themselves, why should we do it for them?

BAOO....BAOV.....Oder, Vistula if anything.
Those 400 Chally 1 tanks omans getting rid of. Are the hulls not the same as Challenger 2, which is just getting a new turret/gun. to become C3
We cant manufacture any hulls, anymore, wonder if these could be upgraded/brought up to scratch, who knows maybe the climate has changed for country's wanting to buy a ChallengerE. there must be the heavy industry somewhere to do it, if required. jobs a bonus. Jcb.

[MJ89]

jokes offcourse, will never happen, Unless the next round of defence cuts,. .Cough. imean White paper is titled options for common sense.

Options for ok, ivan fooled us..

[Mr Mac]

Mj89
Heavy industry in the UK , where ? Ship sailed sometime ago on that, indeed ship probably broken up on Bangladeshi beaches now.

The German defence spending has indeed been mismanaged, but it is alright looking with hindsight , but it was expected that Russia would have become more democratic and tensions eased. If you said to any Govt say in 2000 that there would a full on war in Europe in 22 years I think you would have been called mad.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[Not_a_boffin]

The German defence spending has indeed been mismanaged, but it is alright looking with hindsight , but it was expected that Russia would have become more democratic and tensions eased. If you said to any Govt say in 2000 that there would a full on war in Europe in 22 years I think you would have been called mad.

Cheers
Mr Mac

The direction of travel was clear from 2008 or so onwards and became even more obvious when Putin and Medvedev did their little "to me, to you, to me" dance.

It's just that no politicians wanted to face that reality. Can't spend money on defence, need skools n hospikals and diversity courses.

[Less Hair]

They funded global operations like Iraq and Afghanistan quietly from their regular defence budget, ending up in cannibalizing what was left and running down equipment and staff. For some time, Cold War stores could be tapped, but now they are emptied.

[Mr Mac]

Not a Boffin
Yes indeed you maybe right re that two step but at the time nobody in the West called foul in any country. This state of affairs continued onwards and probably did not change until those T72 rolled last year. What has been alarming I believe in the West and also to some degree in Russia, is the prodigious use of ammunition’s of all types which will require replacing, and quickly.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[ORAC]

The UK hasn’t envisaged needing industrial scale munition production since the Korean War.

Even during the Cold War the expectation was that, if it went hot, it would be a fighting retreat to the Channel using in-place stocks before it went nuclear on day 3 or 4.

Same reason we didn’t have enough manpower to provide guards and shut down SHQ, supply, catering etc to provide them. Hence the shock in GW1 when all the UK units were gutted to provide the drivers, cooks etc to support 24/7 ops for months in the desert. Each 3 Sqn wing MOB providing just enough crews to just keep just one flying 24/7.

Even after that every post that wasn’t “digitised” to show it had a deployable overseas role was civilianised.

[NutLoose]

The bad thing is most of the West isn't churning out new Tanks, Russia is!

[NutLoose]

BAOO....BAOV.....Oder, Vistula if anything.
Those 400 Chally 1 tanks omans getting rid of. Are the hulls not the same as Challenger 2, which is just getting a new turret/gun. to become C3
We cant manufacture any hulls, anymore, wonder if these could be upgraded/brought up to scratch, who knows maybe the climate has changed for country's wanting to buy a ChallengerE. there must be the heavy industry somewhere to do it, if required. jobs a bonus. Jcb.
Germany offered to do them, though I don't know about ammo as its a different calibre to those used by Nato now.https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_january_2023_global_security_army_industry/germany_could_propose_refurbished_challenger_1_main_battle_t anks_to_ukraine.html

[Mr Mac]

Nutlose
There is only one Russian tank factory currently operating apparently, and it is having production issues, as not unsurprisingly they are having issues with supply chain. What they will be able to do is get on with de mothballing older vehicle's with less complex demands. As you say changing a gun on the Omani Challengers would not be straightforward, and I doubt could be done quickly enough. Also remaining with the current gun does create logistical issues in itself. You are potentially creating the Tiger / Panther issue of WW2 with different gun calibers and mechanicals. Luckily logistical planning has improved since then, but as Orac pointed out in her post, the GW logistics were a challenge.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[henra]

The bad thing is most of the West isn't churning out new Tanks, Russia is!
Or if they are producing new tanks it is in a largely manufactory process with very low output. There are simply not the orders in the hundreds and thousands anymore as it was in the 80's.
On the other hand with the next generation currently being in development I don't expect for example the German Army to order current generation tanks in quantities anymore. I just hope they order a big enough amount of the Leo 3 initially that an efficient production line can be set up. But it will be interesting to see what happens with the Leo 2 now taken from the German Army inventory. If it will be backfilled. And where to take the tanks for the backfilling from (assuming Poland will over time give all of its Leo 2 to Ukraine). I don't think they are currently producing new tubs.

[Less Hair]

I think they do.
https://www.kmweg.com/systems-products/tracked-vehicles/main-battle-tank/

[Mr Mac]

Less Hair
You beat me to it. Not sure how quickly they are manufacturing currently but you can bet some one will be looking to improve it.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[NutLoose]

Germany no longer builds new hulls, but instead refurbishes and upgrades existing Leopard 2 hulls from stocks to new standards. As far as all upgrades are modular any existing Leopard 2 tank can be upgraded to the latest standard. By 2022 hulls of this tank were still manufactured in Greece.

https://www.military-today.com/tanks/leopard_2.htm

Feb 16, 2022 (https://defencehub.live/threads/modernization-program-of-the-greek-leopard-2.12129/post-161674) So I don't know how far this progressed


According Ptisi magazine, KMW, in collaboration with Rheinmetall, are proposing in Greece a package of agreements based on a common point of interest, which can go as far as the construction of a Leopard 2 assembly / production line in Greece, utilizing the existing infrastructure, since such does not exist. This line will also serve the reconstruction of the Greek Leo 2A4 at a higher level, up to the Leo 2A7, if this is finally deemed economically feasible.
The homogenization of the fleet of the Greek Leopard 2 Leo 2A7, allows Greece to develop into the main user Leopard 2A7 worldwide.
However, in addition to the main upgrade program of the Leopard 2A4, the German side is said to propose the participation of Greece in the TOMA Lynx program, while on the table is the acquisition of a large number of used armor of various types, which are now in storage in Germany, including significant quantities of Marder 1A3.

[GrahamO]

It would be better to find out why strategic assessments and arms programs went so wrong and who was behind it. Defence budgets were on record levels for years so it was not any lack of funding to blame. What they had was just not well spent.

Because like so many European states, they were determined to have their own world leading tech but werent big enough to actually invest enough. The Uk had to spend a lot harder to get its worth, and had a long track record with good ties to the USA. Germany, less so. When it comes to incubators, high tech, C4I, SigInt etc where high technology startups require an open investment culture, Germany isnt it. They have great lumps of metal but Silicon valley they are are not. If I recall it correctly, Germany only tried a couple of years ago to create a culture of silicon valley. I am sure the reasons are complex but their abhorrence of entrepreneurship without union control probably played a part in people not wanting to start anything up. Anyone wanting to do a start up, left the country.

The so-called EU Army is/was really a mechanism to divert even more EU funds into their military firms as they knew they couldnt get enough past the beancounters directly so they tried to split the money into the local funds plus 'EU Army funds'. At least the French were willing to export widely wheres my impression is that Germany didnt like to. Dealing with KMW on a certain overseas deal was interesting as they went into it with eyes firmly shut and I would be very surprised if they actually made any money on it.

[Less Hair]

They are not permitted to export arms into war zones. Or they hadn't been permitted until now. This is why they look for cooperation projects where the partner can do the exporting part with less domestic restrictions.

Concerning armaments: They have a history of wanting super ambitious things that get costly over time - with politicians stepping on the brakes after a while - which leads to rework and scaling down - that again gets the costs higher and the schedules delayed - for a not fully featured product finally. They ended up buying Pret-a-porter F-35s, Chinooks and P-9s recently.

Whenever they finish arms projects they get some nice kit if you look at submarines, trucks, tanks or rifles.

[Lonewolf_50]

Whenever they finish arms projects they get some nice kit if you look at submarines, trucks, tanks or rifles. Not sure if they have a follow on to the 212 class submarines, but that was/is a nice boat.

[henra]

Not sure if they have a follow on to the 212 class submarines, but that was/is a nice boat.
They are developing class 212CD for German Navy and Norway, which will effectively be a completely new boat which has little in common with the 212/212A apart from the number. Much bigger (more than 50% heavier), different shape (Diamond Shape), different drive tech being investigated but in any case two Diesel engines instead of one.
Honestly, I have no clue why they stick to the class number 212.

To give you an idea about the difference between the two Types of 212s:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/radical-new-stealth-submarine-type-212cd-will-be-much-larger/

[kiwi grey]

They are developing class 212CD for German Navy and Norway, which will effectively be a completely new boat which has little in common with the 212/212A apart from the number. Much bigger (more than 50% heavier), different shape (Diamond Shape), different drive tech being investigated but in any case two Diesel engines instead of one.
Honestly, I have no clue why they stick to the class number 212.
Maybe for the same reason that navies (including the RN) are buying ships displacing as much as a WW2 light cruiser and calling them "frigates"

[falcon900]

At the risk of thinking the unthinkable, is it possible that the days of the tank are numbered?
surely one of the learnings from the conflict is that they are vulnerable to man-portable weapons and drones? The cost benefit equation even for old tech tanks isn’t good, and presumably only gets worse the more the tank costs.
The forthcoming arrival of Challenger 2, Leopard 2 and Abrams on the battlefield will no doubt be hugely informative for strategists, wargamers, and arms manufacturers everywhere, but for me the jury is still out on whether it will be a decisive turn of events. One of those rare occasions where I would be happy to be proved wrong……

[Asturias56]

well I guess the West gets to test the theories and find out if there are issues well in advance of having to use them elsewhere

and before investing in a whole new fleet of armour as well

[India Four Two]

well I guess the West gets to test the theories

​​​​​​​I was thinking along the same lines. A bit like the Luftwaffe getting operational experience in Spain pre-WWII.

[BEagle]

​​​​​​​I was thinking along the same lines. A bit like the Luftwaffe getting operational experience in Spain pre-WWII.

To some extent. But many Luftwaffe fighter pilots resented the ex-Condor Legion old boys' clique, who they termed 'The Spaniards', who thought that they knew everything. For example, Galland was against having radio in fighters - wing waggles and pre-flight briefs had worked OK in Spain, so should suffice elsewhere....

[GeeRam]

To some extent. But many Luftwaffe fighter pilots resented the ex-Condor Legion old boys' clique, who they termed 'The Spaniards', who thought that they knew everything. For example, Galland was against having radio in fighters - wing waggles and pre-flight briefs had worked OK in Spain, so should suffice elsewhere....

Galland flew open cockpit He-51 biplanes in Spain, so likely didn't even have radio's fitted?

[henra]

At the risk of thinking the unthinkable, is it possible that the days of the tank are numbered?
surely one of the learnings from the conflict is that they are vulnerable to man-portable weapons and drones?
I guess it's a bit yes and no at the same time. With shoulder fired ATGM you can defend very well against attacking tanks. But you can't Counter- attack. That is why Ukraine now need tanks despite having the best ATGM at their disposal. To advance in the opposite direction. Drones like the Bayraktar can only operate if the tank force doesn't have suitable Surface2Air capabilites or fighter cover. Against a well eqipped opponent who knows what he is doing the Bayraktar and similar slow unstealthy drones are close to worthless. A tank being part of a modern, well equipped and trained combined arms force will probably remain relevant. A tank all on its own not. Therefore don't extrapolate the (mediocre to put it mildly) performance of the Russian Forces (especially at the beginning) to every other Army.

[Asturias56]

" Against a well eqipped opponent who knows what he is doing the Bayraktar and similar slow unstealthy drones are close to worthless."

has that been proven in action? I seem to remember they've done well in every real fight they've been deployed

[henra]

has that been proven in action? I seem to remember they've done well in every real fight they've been deployed
They won't survive an encounter with an IRIS-T SLx or NASAMS or similar. And neither with an AESA or modern conventional RADAR equipped fighter. Azerbaidschan during the entire conflict and Russia at the beginning of the war are no good examples for well organised combined arms with working Air Defence. In the meantime Russia seems to have gotten its act better sorted in that regard. The TB2 don't seem to play any role around Bakhmut any more.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/europes-weak-armed-forces-could-be-washed-away-by-russia-bmxbc22gc

Europe’s muddled armed forces ‘could be washed away by Russia

’Europe is not prepared for a war with Russia and is in danger of being “washed away” in a conflict, much as the Holy Roman Empire was broken up by Napoleon, Germany’s pre-eminent military historian has warned.

At a high-level defence conference in Berlin, several German generals also suggested that Nato might be unable to win the “first battle” in a defensive war on its eastern flank, because it would struggle to ship sufficient numbers of troops and equipment to the front line quickly enough.

Sönke Neitzel, professor of military history at Potsdam University and the leading academic authority on the modern German armed forces, described the logistics as a “nightmare” and said it could take at least 15 years before Germany was ready for war.

He pointed out that troop numbers were in decline and fell at least 30,000 short of the 203,000 target strength, while the country needed another 60,000 reservists in addition to the 34,000 it has.

“We need more money. We need more personnel. And there are limits in politics,” Neitzel told the Berlin Security Conference. “We can’t exclude that the Bundeswehr [German armed forces] will have to fight.

“We are going to stand by the coffins at the soldiers’ graves and we are going to be asked: ‘What have you done?’ We will have to explain to the mothers and the fathers why the soldiers could not fulfil their jobs. And at the moment we can only die gallantly if there’s a war.

“It’s very clear: if our armed forces are going to fight, they will die without drones, air defences, without enough supplies. Are we now clear enough on our message [to Germany’s leaders]? They are going to die and it’s your responsibility.”

The Bundeswehr has been shaken by the Russian assault (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-moscows-defence-budget-russia-arms-for-the-battle-8fg07vxvs) on Ukraine, which led the head of the army to lament that his soldiers had been left “naked” and unable to fulfil obligations to their Nato allies after years of cuts and muddled doctrines. In response, the government is spending €100 billion on fixing the gaps in its military and last week set out an ambition to become the “backbone” and chief logistical “turntable” of Nato’s efforts to deter a Russian invasion.

Boris Pistorius, the defence minister, has called for Germany to become kriegstüchtig (capable of war), a deliberately provocative term in a country where 71 per cent of voters reject the state’s new aim to assume a “leadership role” in the defence of Europe.

On Thursday he told the conference that the idea of creating a European army was “off the table”, as the continent’s powers try instead to take on a more serious role within Nato. “It’s time to lift the mental blockade that somehow Germany shouldn’t be a leader in defence and deterrence,” he said. “We all need to become kriegstüchtig. Deterrence is like oxygen: you don’t notice it until it’s gone. We want peace — we have to prepare for war.”…

A number of Bundeswehr generals and military experts pointed to deep structural problems standing in the way, including a shortage of troops, heavily depleted ammunition stocks and the difficulty of moving as many as 300,000 Nato soldiers up to a thousand miles from Germany to the front.

Some insiders also fear that regular military spending and arms deliveries to Ukraine could be cut back as the country’s political leaders struggle to resolve a budget crisis.

“We need to wake this country up, and probably not just this country. I think it’s true for most of the European democracies,” said Brigadier-General Tilo Maedler, chief of staff in the Bundeswehr’s homeland defence command.

“We really must overcome our old optimistic view of the terminal peace [after the end of the Cold War in Europe]. It was a nice dream, but the dream is over and we have to face reality. This country, and not just this country, needs to do a lot more for the stability of peace and democracy.”….

One of the toughest problems coming into focus is logistics. Many senior European commanders bemoaned the complexity of building up sufficient stocks of war materiel and moving soldiers and equipment through a legal system so tangled that armoured vehicles face separate rules and permits in each of Germany’s 16 states.

“If we have bureaucracy in place that prevents this agile movement, then we have a real problem not to lose the first battle [against Russia],” said Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank, the German head of Nato’s new central logistics hub in Ulm. “And the other side knows exactly where our limitations are and what our obstacles are.”

Neitzel said he had visited Nato’s headquarters in Brussels last week and despaired at the way various allied states still had mutually incompatible ammunition. “This always reminds me of the story of the Holy Roman Empire of the German nation, how they had to react to Napoleon and they couldn’t agree on anything,” he said. “And they were washed away. Historical structures can be washed away. That’s the lesson from history.

“So we have to act and we have to enable Alexander Sollfrank [in charge of Nato logistics] to do his job, so that our soldiers are not going to die and we can win the first battle.”….

[ORAC]

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-12-27/germany-army-lithuania-brigade-12478191.html

German army ‘too thin’ on resources to make Lithuania brigade viable, leader says

https://kyivindependent.com/fm-kuleba-europe-doesnt-know-how-to-fight-wars/

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kuleba: 'Europe doesn't know how to fight wars'


https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1740454772694798566?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Both the Dutch military and society as a whole need to brace themselves for the possibility of a war with Russia, said Lieutenant-General Martin Wijnen, the departing Commander of the Royal Netherlands Army, - The Telegraaf

[Lonewolf_50]

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-12-27/germany-army-lithuania-brigade-12478191.html

German army ‘too thin’ on resources to make Lithuania brigade viable, leader says Maybe they ought to create a Beast Regiment. (https://www.biblio.com/the-beast-regiment-by-hassel-sven/work/3155195)
Both the Dutch military and society as a whole need to brace themselves for the possibility of a war with Russia, said Lieutenant-General Martin Wijnen, the departing Commander of the Royal Netherlands Army, - The Telegraaf The odds that the Dutch wake back up is marginal, but to be fair to them the F-16 deal does demonstrates a clue or two.