The Kerch Bridge Thread

[NutLoose]

THEY HAVE HIT IT………….. THE KERCH BRIDGE
This topic is of sufficient interest to have its own thread. While what blew up does not appear to be the result of an air strike, it is of interest, militarily, due to this bridge being a logistics route in and out of Crimea. There is still a war on. Over 100 posts were moved from the usual Ukraine War thread to this one.
Some of the detailed discussion is quite interesting, thanks to all of you for your insights.
T28B
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1578601802345291782

https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1578601802345291782

[Beamr]

Something went off big time, that is not your average HIMARS explosion. Or did they hit an ammo train or something?
In Russia TASS reports it is a fuel tank that has caught fire (reason for the ignition is unexplained. Maybe someone had a smoke. Again.)

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578595663126069248

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578595663126069248

[NutLoose]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1058x1200/image_2f232bb84f51d8b4280a59db247ae862e5d0ba44.jpeg


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x1792/image_f13d493d6ddddb621d9ef8b06d3eeeb50b425773.jpeg



https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1578604572402417664

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1578604572402417664



Happy Birthday Putin.. :eek: :E

On the top picture I can imagine the CCTV operator sitting at his desk looking at it and thinking ohhh **** should I wake Putin….



​​​​​​…

[peter we]

Something went off big time, that is not your average HIMARS explosion. Or did they hit an ammo train or something?
In Russia TASS reports it is a fuel tank that has caught fire (reason for the ignition is unexplained. Maybe someone had a smoke. Again.)

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578595663126069248
Russian explanation looks most likely. its a fuel fire.
How it caught fire, however..

[NutLoose]

Finally…. Now they are screwed supply line wise :E it looks like both lanes and the rail line, time to sack a couple more Generals and the odd Admiral.

A fuel fire that dropped two spans of the nearby, but lower road bridge? and here was me thinking explosions tended to go up and out..

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1578600736807481347

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1578600736807481347

[Beamr]

Meanwhile the Kremlin official newspaper Rossiskaja Gazeta hasn't got a word of the Kerch bridge, though they have a big headline that at the exact moment of Nord Stream explosion a US Navy Poseidon flew by it. Interesting to see how tgey'll develop this story.


A US Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft repeatedly flew near the site of the incident on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline within a few hours after the first damage appeared, TASS reports citing Reuters.

It is specified that the plane was flying at the very moment when Swedish seismologists registered an underwater explosion southeast of the island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea.

Then Poseidon approached about 24 km to the explosion site, made one circle and flew towards Kaliningrad.

https://rg.ru/2022/10/08/samolet-ssha-proletal-nad-mestom-chp-na-severnom-potoke-2-v-noch-vzryva.html?_openstat=rg.ru;bloks;maintoday-index;article-2409339

[NutLoose]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/960x1280/image_eeb475672507464f798e07b7a16dfdf334754ecd.jpeg

I wonder if the boat is any relevance or is one of the decoys? One lane left standing so the Russians can evacuate Crimea?

[fdr]

I wonder if the boat is any relevance or is one of the decoys? One lane left standing so the Russians can evacuate Crimea?


Yikes!
Now, that is going to take a fair bit of bog to fill in.
Crimea just lost it's eastern MSR, for the next year or so. They have...

A. Ship transfer from Novo to Sevastopol, ripe for interdiction, and maybe 3000T/day;
B. Airbridge, open to attack on airport, forget about air interdiction... 500T/day?;
C. Truck from Rostov, along the M14... which have critical bridge access, and appear to be within Ukraine ranging now.
D. what they will do

Question: what dropped the road bridge? that looks like it has been dropped at one end completely, that would take a fair bit of bang. Did a Russian smoker pop off a tank of propane or some other FAE equivalent at an inopportune time?

Ukraine needs to be getting as much SAM/AAA/ABM protection as we can muster, as Putin will not be amused by having his candles blown off the cake by a fuel train which then burns out the structure of the rail bridge, and... what ever on earth happened on the road way.

Russia needs a review of their ISO 45001 program... they really do.

Neither of the bridges is a drawbridge, there are at least 5 spans of the roadway that are out of commission. That's all happening around 100m to the EAST of the elevated span over the Kerch-Yenikale canal... just a bit to the Ukrainian side of the mid way of the waterway, in Ukraininan waters!

[20driver]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/960x1280/image_eeb475672507464f798e07b7a16dfdf334754ecd.jpeg

I wonder if the boat is any relevance or is one of the decoys? One lane left standing so the Russians can evacuate Crimea?

Hard to see a scenario where the fire on the train on the track about could lead to the outer bridge deck collapsing.The train viaduct/track is still intact.
If some of the cars dropped onto the road decks below there would lots of visible evidence so the two events are separate.
The road way collapse looks like several I have seen where the bearings/connections at the pier have failed. (Often due to poor maintenance in older structures. The Mianus River bridge is a good example. Faulty shear calculations and or bearing fabrications have dropped a few bridges as well)
OTOH - If I was going to drop a bridge deck , I would get underneath and destroy the bearing plates and connections. Not hard to do if you have access, a boat and a ladder will do, and if you know what to do. Ukraine does not seem to lack for engineering talent.
Presuming this happened , not a big deal to get up the the railway viaduct and place a few shaped charges that would blow up and puncture the tank car.
What I find interesting is the lack of traffic on the bridge. You think it would be crammed with trucks.

[rattman]

I think it was a missile strike and the train was just a happy accident. Maybe they bodged harpoons onto mig 29's. It could have been a truck bomb or maybe some form of remote / unmammed boat. But location at when it starts to go up for large ships to pass make that a wierd location for a seaborne charge

[ORAC]

Good photo from within the last 30 minutes.

Fire on the train is spreading from fuel car to fuel car and the steel and concrete of the bridge will be vastly compromised.

You can clearly see 2 spans if the road bridge have been dropped with no sign of cratering on the spans themselves - must be shaped charges rather than a missile attack - interesting the other lane wasn’t dropped.

Catching the train as it passed would suggest they charges were either set off remotely as it passed.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1124/image_3bcaa9c9d3c47adf16bdce58a154f1d38304d3ce.jpeg

[Beamr]

Russian state media claims now that it was a TRUCK that was blown on the bridge and causing the span to collapse.

also, Russian officials are working to set up a ferry crossing over the Kerch strait.

https://rg.ru/2022/10/08/reg-ufo/nak-na-krymskom-mostu-proizoshel-podryv-gruzovogo-avtomobilia.html

[uffington sb]

Not a good place to stop and video. If one of those tank wagons has a bleve, you’d probably get more than just singed eyebrows .

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578632595633758208?s=61&t=44cA-Tk-jMHPiEUzn6a_QA


Russian Telegram channels are sharing this video which is allegedly CCTV footage of the explosion.

The truck may be a red herring - just at the wrong place at the wrong time. If you look below the bridge in the moment before the detonation you can see a high speed boat appearing. A UKR remote?

[uffington sb]

Nutty. I don’t think that’s a boat tied up alongside. On GE there’s a structure that’s part of the bridge, probably for maintenance .

[fdr]

Russia will go nuts, about as effectively as they have previously, and will likely fire indiscriminately into civilian population centers in Ukraine. Hope everyone has their cellars stocked, and their hard hats. Attacking civilian centers doesn't change the basic situation, that Russia just lost Crimea as it stands. Ukraine didn't even need to take out the canal, which is good.

Yes, Russia can go feral, and cause more loss of status, or they can cogitate their position, and politely leave Ukrainian pre 2014 territory, or they can try to escalate by going silly. They do not have an existential threat to Russia that doesn't come from their own destruction of the Russian military, that will come back to be a problem with their other states unless they protect and conserve what is left of their forces. Going "whole hog" apart from being a bad idea for the planet, will bring forward the collapse of Russia faster than anything else. Right now, if I was an advisor, I would be texting in to Vlad, rather than visiting him on the 6th floor with the panoramic windows. The advice would be the same, leave Ukraine under a cease fire, protect the forces you have, and cobble together the states that make up the federation. Vlad has a bit of kiss n' cuddling to do there, he used up a lot of good will by using the minority states as cannon fodder. That is coming back to bite him if he continues to squander his forces on his ill considered vacation in Ukraine.

Golly!

This may not have been missiles, it could easily be charges on the bridge.

[uffington sb]

ORAC. But it appears under a span that’s not damaged. There’s a lot of white capped waves seen in the video.

[petit plateau]

I think it was a missile strike and the train was just a happy accident. Maybe they bodged harpoons onto mig 29's. It could have been a truck bomb or maybe some form of remote / unmammed boat. But location at when it starts to go up for large ships to pass make that a wierd location for a seaborne charge

If it was a missile strike then it is odd that no SAM systems went off. Videos of them would be all over social media. I'm not saying it wasn't a missile strike, but if so the absence of SAMs is most odd. An accident to a train doesn't affect a roadbridge. Which tends to leave SF operations.

It would be fascinating to see the edge of the roadbridge span that is underwater. There appears to be no damage whatsoever to the adjacent span (in photo foreground), and you can even see some undamaged bridge girders sticking out. What we cannot see are the main bearing points on the abutments either side. Hard to imagine something cleaved those abutments and didn't touch the adjacent span at all. Which leads to wondering if something disrupted the beams in the bridge deck that dropped, but that bit is now underwater. Hmmm....

The adjacent roadway bridge spans (to the side) seem undamaged. So this is a loss of 2 from 4 road lanes. The other 2 road lanes are still operable.

Whatever safety factor is left in the rail bridge after fuel tank trucks have been burning for hours has got to be questionable. If there is sufficient strength left in the railspan it'll take a while to get the train out of the way and repair the rails/ etc - and the danger pay for the train staff from now on will be amazing.

Do we have any idea how many of the civilian population are left in Crimea ? I seem to recall that Russia has stopped all males from leaving Crimea between 18-55 yrs. Some pretty large traffic jams have got to be on the cards quite soon.

[Beamr]

Why was the fuel train on a stand still on that spot? A freight train needs kilometers to stop to a halt.

reg. the truck, the driver must've been suicidal or made his peace with his/her maker to go on a mission like that. Ukrainians seem a lot wiser than your average suicidal bomber looking for their 72 virgins.

There must be more to this story.

[petit plateau]

Why was the fuel train on a stand still on that spot? A freight train needs kilometers to stop to a halt.

reg. the truck, the driver must've been suicidal or made his peace with his/her maker to go on a mission like that. Ukrainians seem a lot wiser than your average suicidal bomber looking for their 72 virgins.

There must be more to this story.

This video (the one that is 44-sec long and is from the surveillance cameras looking East along the centreline of the road highways, explosion is at 33sec) suggest the truck was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Something seems to go off in the space between the bridge pier and the bridge deck, on the Russia-bound highway (I think that is the South one). The debris that blows S-N must be something lighteweight as the wind is also blowing S>N (we can see that from the smoke on the railtanks). I think the train may also have been happenstance. Actually I am unsure, maybe two piers are carrying explosives ?

This is the ideal location for Ukraine to pick. It is undeniably in their teritorial waters. It is not in the shipping channel which a) they want open and b) they want to avoid legal hassle over).But how did explosives get there ? Not necessarily placed by Ukraine given the factional infighting in Russia ?




https://twitter.com/i/status/1578633947109810176

[rattman]

Fires out, looks like that bridge has spans dropped in 2 separate locations. Also thing the second still standing bridge is rooted. Look at the sag in the a bridge section at 23 seconds


https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

[fdr]

Russian Telegram channels are sharing this video which is allegedly CCTV footage of the explosion.

The truck may be a red herring - just at the wrong place at the wrong time. If you look below the bridge in the moment before the detonation you can see a high speed boat appearing. A UKR remote?


Not seeing a high speed boat, there is an odd wave set though just behind the truck, on the water... That truck driver will be searching all over for his cigarette packet. Looks like steam coming off under the rail bridge, water main blown? The truck was coming from the Russian side of the planet... so if it was a truck bomb, there is room for more of those in the east. Probably need a new volunteer, as that driver will still have tinnitus from this effort. A single cigarette taking out both roadways and the railway, and a water main is going to have lots of paperwork on the remediation of the OH&S plan there.

It is a good excuse to get out of Ukraine, and blame his military, and safety managers, and retire to Sochi. Just sayin'...

[Beamr]

:E
Ferry ticket prices just exploded

https://twitter.com/azbridgewater/status/1578639888626294785

https://twitter.com/azbridgewater/status/1578639888626294785

[fdr]

This video (the one that is 44-sec long and is from the surveillance cameras looking East along the centreline of the road highways, explosion is at 33sec) suggest the truck was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Something seems to go off in the space between the bridge pier and the bridge deck, on the Russia-bound highway (I think that is the South one). The debris that blows S-N must be something lighteweight as the wind is also blowing S>N (we can see that from the smoke on the railtanks). I think the train may also have been happenstance. Actually I am unsure, maybe two piers are carrying explosives ?

This is the ideal location for Ukraine to pick. It is undeniably in their teritorial waters. It is not in the shipping channel which a) they want open and b) they want to avoid legal hassle over).But how did explosives get there ? Not necessarily placed by Ukraine given the factional infighting in Russia ?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578633947109810176

The additional images are suggestive that you are correct, Petit plateau, It has the hallmarks of a charge on the bridge support, there is a large amount of debris that is coming over the side of the bridge deck. The truck may just be bad luck, could happen to anyone, along with the car, and, where is the engine for the train?

The stills that have been pulled from the video show a bow of a boat and a bow wave at the moment of the detonation. Shades of some recent PMs.

[Paul C]

It looks like one span was targeted but as it fell into the water it dragged 2 other spans with it. Funny how things unexpected happen, I remember on dems supv course how the instructors were saying you don't want to perfectly cut a bridge deck only to have the handrails remain holding it in place.

[NutLoose]

It does look like a boat under the section to me, possibly one of those remote ones that washed ashore in Crimea?

They have dropped it at the lowest point where a detonation underneath would be most effective, as for the train loco unit, disconnected and legged it when his train caught fire and was derailed?

There is another image out there showing a secondary fire in the sea

[ORAC]

The lack of any crater damage would argue against a truck bomb, and an explosion above would mostly dissipate upwards.

An explosion below would produce heave lifting adjacent spans and breaking their connections to be piers. As Nutty points out the low location is perfect to maximum any heave.

Argument against planted charges is both the CCTV coverage and reported extensive sea and other surveillance. Getting onto the structure and wiring that amount of explosives in place wouldn’t be inconspicuous.

[petit plateau]

The additional images are suggestive that you are correct, Petit plateau, It has the hallmarks of a charge on the bridge support, there is a large amount of debris that is coming over the side of the bridge deck. The truck may just be bad luck, could happen to anyone, along with the car, and, where is the engine for the train?

Regarding the train: in the centreline roadway video we can see that the train is stationary, not even slowly moving. In the long distance shots we can see that the now-burning train has no locomotive attached. My best guesses is that i) less likely, they are short of locos and parked the tank train there overnight as it ought to be a SAM-protected area, or 2) more likely, the train was waiting at signals to proceed, but that the loco driver then sensibly got him/herself out of there.

Regarding the source of explosion : either explosives placed on the piers or one+ of those fancy boats. Given the size of the blast(s) I tend towards the boat(s). Something like that can carry a tonne or so of explosive and with the right sort of charge shaping the effect would be upwards. The sensor set on the boats washed ashore includes some things that would enable the necessary precise positioning. That in turn tends to suggest a Ukraine job, rather than an internal faction within Russia. I am also tending towards just one device with the multiple spans being dropped just being shockwave effects, that would account for the clean road-deck end in one of the stills.The damage to the adjacent road carriageway deck was happenstance imho. Whether they always park tanktrucks at that point overnight is something I am sure intel would have been aware of, and might have played a part in precise target selection, who knows. Nice coincidence mind you :)

[mahogany bob]

Ten Reasons Why Ukraine Hasn’t Destroyed The Crimean Bridge.
U tube

Willian Spanial

ESSENTIAL VIEWING

[NutLoose]

The boat? You decide.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/520x435/image_2d12f5821212a37b8cc758aefd8a642d96cf425e.png

[fdr]

Regarding the train: in the centreline roadway video we can see that the train is stationary, not even slowly moving. In the long distance shots we can see that the now-burning train has no locomotive attached. My best guesses is that i) less likely, they are short of locos and parked the tank train there overnight as it ought to be a SAM-protected area, or 2) more likely, the train was waiting at signals to proceed, but that the loco driver then sensibly got him/herself out of there.

Regarding the source of explosion : either explosives placed on the piers or one+ of those fancy boats. Given the size of the blast(s) I tend towards the boat(s). Something like that can carry a tonne or so of explosive and with the right sort of charge shaping the effect would be upwards. The sensor set on the boats washed ashore includes some things that would enable the necessary precise positioning. That in turn tends to suggest a Ukraine job, rather than an internal faction within Russia. I am also tending towards just one device with the multiple spans being dropped just being shockwave effects, that would account for the clean road-deck end in one of the stills.The damage to the adjacent road carriageway deck was happenstance imho. Whether they always park tanktrucks at that point overnight is something I am sure intel would have been aware of, and might have played a part in precise target selection, who knows. Nice coincidence mind you :)

Putting enough bang in place while there is CCTV would be a neat trick, or local talent, which is not beyond the pale. There will be some Russians that will not grieve the loss of the Crimea bridge, it may save their lives.
The video along the road way supports a shock that is from under the structure of the road spans, and, IIRC, most spans are located on plates and are free to slide for expansion joints normally, so are able to be lifted off a buttress, like the SFO and LA earthquakes. Parking a full set of tanks on a bridge, with carriages uncoupled from any loco, is loco. The engineers are going to be spending a fair bit of time thinking through the damage of the rail bridge structure, The closeups will be interesting to see if there has been any distortion to the structure, the rails are a given. Those tanks with wind underneath were pretty good furnaces.

[NutLoose]

That secondary fire seen off the bridge.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/810x1080/image_68677b7f653677903505e56e3a9460dcbc44e2bc.jpeg

[Beamr]

Darwin awards candidates

"The firemen standing so far away. They're afraid" (of a burning fuel train)
"shall we go closer?"
"Yes - of course."

This is Blackadder level of comedy - in real life.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

[fdr]

Ten Reasons Why Ukraine Hasn’t Destroyed The Crimean Bridge.
U tube

Willian Spanial

ESSENTIAL VIEWING


He under states the use of the route as an MSR for Crimea. It was always a worthwhile target, and it is a major mess to Crimea.

Separately, unconfirmed word Prigozin was taken out along with his Wagner local HQ and troops. Not the first time it has been claimed.

[dead_pan]

Darwin awards candidates

"The firemen standing so far away. They're afraid" (of a burning fuel train)
"shall we go closer?"
"Yes - of course."

This is Blackadder level of comedy - in real life.


Even more astonishing that the Russians hadn't closed off the bridge. That must be a good few hours after the blast.

[dead_pan]

One of the videos does appear to show burning materials landing on the bridge deck, possibly unexploded material from an improvised device?

I'm guessing the 1 or 2 spans which fell undamaged can be craned back up into place relatively quickly (assuming they are undamaged). The broken span will need to be replaced, which will take quite some time.

That said I wouldn't like to be a member of the crew tasked with repairing the bridge. The Ukes may take a leaf out of Russia's playbook and attempt a 'double-tap'

[ORAC]

ROFL….

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1578638303301341185?s=61&t=44cA-Tk-jMHPiEUzn6a_QA


Vladimir Konstantinov, the head of Crimea's Russian-installed illegal "parliament", claimed that the damage was "insignificant", and the bridge would be repaired soon.

[ORAC]

i'm guessing the 1 or 2 spans which fell undamaged can be craned back up into place relatively quickly
👀👀👀👀. 🙄

[dead_pan]

That secondary fire seen off the bridge.


Could be a burning slick from whatever was in the rail trucks. It looks like it is on land but that could be the shadow cast by the pall of smoke.

ROFL….

Vladimir Konstantinov, the head of Crimea's Russian-installed illegal "parliament", claimed that the damage was "insignificant", and the bridge would be repaired soon.

Yup, just like all their online trolls claimed the Moskva was only lightly damaged and would be back in action in a matter of days.

👀👀👀👀. 🙄

Okay, I admit I'm not an engineer, but they do look lighter than the stones at Stonehenge and our ancestors shifted them by hand....

[petit plateau]

The local time of explosion was approx 6:07 am or so. Local sunrise is 7:01 am. It was dark, you can see that in the cameras. There was some sea running with some wave action. I think that bomb-boat is sufficiently low in the water to not be easily detected. (This is actually how the earliest 'semi-submersibles' operated, basically just awash). The sensor fit on that bomb-boat is enough to place it accurately under this, even in a degraded GPS environment.

Whether that is the bow of a bomb-boat just coming into the picture frame I am unsure. It could actually be a security boat (RIB) taking a closer look at a bomb-boat at just the wrong moment In later film one can see the security RIBs moving around. That picture frame looks to be moving too fast and making too much bow wave for a bomb boat, plus it doesn't appear to be in quite the right position for the blast location.

The Russians built this bridge. I suspect they cast these sections fairly locally. That is normal construction technique all over Europe including Russia. The sections are not terribly large. Whether they have three spare sections sitting onshore is not so obvious. Doing a wartime repair with steel sections is perfectly feasible, just a matter of time. Winter is coming in mind you. The rail bridge may be more difficult, who knows what the remaining safety factor is (if any) and ascertaining that very important number is quite difficult. A lot depends on how much fuel went straight into the sea as opposed to pooling and burning on the bridge itself.

I don't think it was just explosives. I think there was something else, quite likely copper or aluminium to act as a penetrator. That likely is what also impacted the train of fuel rail cars.

[fdr]

ROFL….



Vladimir Konstantinov, the head of Crimea's Russian-installed illegal "parliament", claimed that the damage was "insignificant", and the bridge would be repaired soon.

Perhaps he was concussed by the bang? :}

It will be done this century, but it won't be done by Russia. Can't imagine bridge builders not being opportunistically press ganged into a T-34.. or whatever is now left

https://youtu.be/WQZqJ_-WAO8


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/708x900/feiaa0jamaaxgyr_0e1ae31615be6d4fc554ce8ed9d33aa359fb4e1c.jpg


https://twitter.com/i/status/1578659441159057408

[Usertim]

One of the videos does appear to show burning materials landing on the bridge deck, possibly unexploded material from an improvised device?

I'm guessing the 1 or 2 spans which fell undamaged can be craned back up into place relatively quickly (assuming they are undamaged). The broken span will need to be replaced, which will take quite some time.

That said I wouldn't like to be a member of the crew tasked with repairing the bridge. The Ukes may take a leaf out of Russia's playbook and attempt a 'double-tap'

And where would you put the crane? or take the kinks out :) ?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578628650551111680/photo/1

I have no idea how Kerch bridge was built but I imagine something like this great timelapse video . https://youtu.be/vKGYs71N72c
Measured on google earth , in that part of the bridge the spans seem to be 60 meters. Losing 180 meters of span is not 'insignificant' even if they happen to have 3 premade spans lying around somewhere.

Now given that kind of method it is interesting that that the section so close to the incline was broken , no doubt that makes reconstruction technically somewhat more difficult.

[dead_pan]

I think there was something else, quite likely copper or aluminium to act as a penetrator. That likely is what also impacted the train of fuel rail cars.

There was an a lot of sparks in the explosion which supports this idea(?)

[Geriaviator]

Enough speculation gents, it's obvious that Russia is copying Ukraine's disinformation campaign. Just as the Ukrainians blew up their own civic buildings and apartment blocks and blamed it on the Russians who were only trying to protect their UKR-based countrymen, so Russia has blown up its own bridge and probably the two TU22 bombers the other day. You can't fool me, Comrade Putin.

[petit plateau]

And where would you put the crane? or take the kinks out :) ?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578628650551111680/photo/1

I have no idea how Kerch bridge was built but I imagine something like this great timelapse video . https://youtu.be/vKGYs71N72c
Measured on google earth , in that part of the bridge the spans seem to be 60 meters. Losing 180 meters of span is not 'insignificant' even if they happen to have 3 premade spans lying around somewhere.

Now given that kind of method it is interesting that that the section so close to the incline was broken , no doubt that makes reconstruction technically somewhat more difficult.

Yes they are doing something similar just down the road from me at present. (I'm not currently in UK ) They cast them on a piece of road and pre-tension the cable reinforcements as the concrete cures. No idea what the setting time is, they do it months in advance here as a down-time job. Then in this case they are lifting using high cranes rather than that extending hoist widget you've proposed which is generally used on TGV rail builds.

I think they used barge-mounted cranes for the original Kerch build (I vaguely remember seeing some photos), but winter is coming on. They do have some jack-ups in the area and they are less weather dependent. But the simplest is to work from the existing remaining structure - all the piers are still in place. The adjacent roadway is in place. So just (!) place cranes onto the existing piers on the adjacent roadway. Then lift. After dumping the debris into the water. They will be taking all sorts of safety short cuts for a repair and for usage. Don't misunderstand me - I would like it to be very difficult, go disastrosly wrong, and not to restore the usability any time soon, and that the conflict will be over before then. I would also like Ukraine to get to within HIMARs range soon. But in the meantime the good news is that any repair efforts will likely badly affect the other carriageway. Only possible way around it all is just to float a load of barges into place with a floating roadbed in the gaps as a interim lash-up - hopefully weather/tide/current make that non-viable this winter.

[Just a spotter]

That secondary fire seen off the bridge.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/810x1080/image_68677b7f653677903505e56e3a9460dcbc44e2bc.jpeg

A bit of a Garth Brooks moment;

Burning bridges
One by one
What I'm doing
Can't be undone
And I'm always hoping someday
I'm gonna stop this running round
But every time the chance comes up
Another bridge goes down

:}
JAS

[wondering]

Russian state media claims now that it was a TRUCK that was blown on the bridge and causing the span to collapse.

also, Russian officials are working to set up a ferry crossing over the Kerch strait.

https://rg.ru/2022/10/08/reg-ufo/nak-na-krymskom-mostu-proizoshel-podryv-gruzovogo-avtomobilia.html

What a beautiful sunrise. :)

Any guess if the rail line is still useable?

[NutLoose]

I would say the rail bridge is firked, that amount of heat over a sustained period would expand the rebar cracking the concrete, they had an artic fire under a motorway bridge years ago up Nr where I come from and that is exactly what happened, they had to replace the spans. Plus the rails are probably softened and buckled.

Which bridge carrry’s the Crimean water supply, because if that’s out and they recapture the canal then Crimea has more woes.

[henra]

The boat? You decide.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/520x435/image_2d12f5821212a37b8cc758aefd8a642d96cf425e.png

Looked at the video again and have to say: I'm pretty sure there is a boat arriving fast just in that second just in that place and just when it arrives - kaboom.

[NutLoose]

Looking at this it appears it’s not going to be a quick lift and plonk back into place, the last picture indicates Putin was looking ahead work wise.

https://www.rferl.org/a/aerial-images-show-extent-of-kerch-strait-bridge-construction-updated/28675651.html

A good read on the construction etc, they dropped a rail section during construction and replaced it in a couple of months, but that is smaller and all the barges, cranes, and construction facilities were in place.

https://ege76.ru/en/tongue-twisters/krymskii-most-na-grani-razrusheniya-krymskii-most-skoro-ruhnet-osnovnye.html


..

[Wokkafans]

Usual caveats:

"Trains expected to be travelling ONCE AGAIN on Crimean Bridge by 20:00 this evening, following bridge explosion (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/6455) - Russian Transport Ministry."

[fdr]

Usual caveats:
"Trains expected to be travelling ONCE AGAIN on Crimean Bridge by 20:00 this evening, following bridge explosion (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/6455) - Russian Transport Ministry."
Now that's what you call fast service. Do you get fries with that too?
Structural engineers were checking the structure while it was hot enough to cook their Borsch? Efficient! No cores, no tensile load tests, just another train, driven by a hero of the Soviet Union Russia.

[NutLoose]

I think pushing would be preferred to pulling the train……

I feel shades of Remagen coming on…

[Just This Once...]

Not that it matters much but in the videos I was sent the train heading towards Crimea was running at not much more than walking pace. Very little blast/frag in this explosion*, little mid-sized rubble spread and the light debris was taken away by the breeze. The whole scene looked swept clean in the immediate aftermath.

Usually best to ignore apparent blast positions on video (due to frame rate, compression et al) but at the start of the event there is very little damage to superficial / tertiary structure (lampposts etc) or even on things normally cast aside by explosions much smaller than this (eg at least 1x car and 1 x truck that would have normally exited the stage (...pursued by a bear?).

So with the evidence (as of yet) we can probably put aside impact blast, airburst, truck bomb or span demolition charges. Even direct demolition of piers looks doubtful. So what we are left with is a scene that looks like ground heave alone, albeit with a bit of water above it. On one of the videos the seat of the explosion looks to be located adjacent to the northern side of the road deck. It was truly significant charge with deep and heavy debris breaching the surface and making it as far as to land on the collapsing span, followed by the deluge of water. It had enough energy to lift some above-surface structural items with it (inc the reinforced piers) and also caused numerous small self-extinguishing or doused steel fires on the immediate surrounding area.

The effect on the sub-surface structures and underlying bed will have been significant and well-beyond my knowledge (yes, I'm a weapons effect specialist but at this level we would be leaning almost entirely on the scientific staff). Pretty sure their first phrase would be '...a complex interaction that may be difficult to model...'.

The effects on the train are very similar to the scene close to the blast. Little or no effect on the train, no apparent derailing, tipping, decoupling or toppling. Very little medium sized debris made it up there beyond that carried by the water spray. If not for the cargo on the train it would almost be a non-event to the rail element (well, apart from fleshy things not liking blast waves) but the footings would need to looked at with a specialist team. Unfortunately high-speed burning metal meeting big tin-cans of POL is a chemistry event. Given the traverse wind and sequential cooking-off of the tanks spells misery for the the rail bridge structure. The blow-torching of steel both changes its material properties for the worst and makes it sag, stretch, expand at points various. The concrete will also have immediate spalling plus a whole host of micro-fissures that will allow a visually 'ok' bit of concrete fail very quickly due to the maritime environment.

An interesting one for sure and I hope more info is revealed so a more credible effort can be made to understand it than my first attempt above.

(* I acknowledge that there appears to be a signature event in at least one of the blast videos - this may or may not be the case but best not to comment further on such things.)

[Spunky Monkey]

To use shaped charges as several people have suggested, they need to be in direct contact with the metal you are are trying to cut. Placing a charge even a couple of inches away will not cut a train rail.
Placing a boat load of explosives under the bridge even if it is just 20 feet between boat and span will loose a great deal of its shock wave effect (Which is what you use to destroy a fixed structure).
A lorry load of explosives would be the same issue, the bast would likely result in a crater roughly the size of the vehicle and would not be likely to create enough of a shock wave that brings down several non adjacent spans.

This could be an inside Rusk escalation with charges attached to the joints of one of the bridge junctions, including an accelerant / vaporiser.
The second option is a very large air delivery munition, by choosing a lower span, there is more opportunity for secondary shockwave reflecting back off the sea. I wonder if the lower height of the piers means. less flex in the sea creating a more rigid structure than targeting a higher level pier.
Is a long time since I did dems but we always used to look a channelling the shockwave.

[petit plateau]

(* I acknowledge that there appears to be a signature event in at least one of the blast videos - this may or may not be the case but best not to comment further on such things.)

But that signature looks pretty conclusive does it not ?

[Wokkafans]

To quote Apocalypse now: "Like this bridge, we build it every night Charlie blows it right back up again. Just so the Generals can say the road's open."

https://youtu.be/iIhMoPA96Z0

[peter we]

Not that it matters much but in the videos I was sent the train heading towards Crimea was running at not much more than walking pace. Very little blast/frag in this explosion*, little mid-sized rubble spread and the light debris was taken away by the breeze. The whole scene looked swept clean in the immediate aftermath.

Usually best to ignore apparent blast positions on video (due to frame rate, compression et al) but at the start of the event there is very little damage to superficial / tertiary structure (lampposts etc) or even on things normally cast aside by explosions much smaller than this (eg at least 1x car and 1 x truck that would have normally exited the stage (...pursued by a bear?).

So with the evidence (as of yet) we can probably put aside impact blast, airburst, truck bomb or span demolition charges. Even direct demolition of piers looks doubtful. So what we are left with is a scene that looks like ground heave alone, albeit with a bit of water above it. On one of the videos the seat of the explosion looks to be located adjacent to the northern side of the road deck. It was truly significant charge with deep and heavy debris breaching the surface and making it as far as to land on the collapsing span, followed by the deluge of water. It had enough energy to lift some above-surface structural items with it (inc the reinforced piers) and also caused numerous small self-extinguishing or doused steel fires on the immediate surrounding area.

The effect on the sub-surface structures and underlying bed will have been significant and well-beyond my knowledge (yes, I'm a weapons effect specialist but at this level we would be leaning almost entirely on the scientific staff). Pretty sure their first phrase would be '...a complex interaction that may be difficult to model...'.

The effects on the train are very similar to the scene close to the blast. Little or no effect on the train, no apparent derailing, tipping, decoupling or toppling. Very little medium sized debris made it up there beyond that carried by the water spray. If not for the cargo on the train it would almost be a non-event to the rail element (well, apart from fleshy things not liking blast waves) but the footings would need to looked at with a specialist team. Unfortunately high-speed burning metal meeting big tin-cans of POL is a chemistry event. Given the traverse wind and sequential cooking-off of the tanks spells misery for the the rail bridge structure. The blow-torching of steel both changes its material properties for the worst and makes it sag, stretch, expand at points various. The concrete will also have immediate spalling plus a whole host of micro-fissures that will allow a visually 'ok' bit of concrete fail very quickly due to the maritime environment.

An interesting one for sure and I hope more info is revealed so a more credible effort can be made to understand it than my first attempt above.

(* I acknowledge that there appears to be a signature event in at least one of the blast videos - this may or may not be the case but best not to comment further on such things.)
Prior to building, there was considerable doubt that the foundations would be stable due to mud volcanoes etc in this region. Could there be an attempt to undermine the stability of the structure?

[meleagertoo]

To use shaped charges as several people have suggested, they need to be in direct contact with the metal you are are trying to cut. Placing a charge even a couple of inches away will not cut a train rail.
Placing a boat load of explosives under the bridge even if it is just 20 feet between boat and span will loose a great deal of its shock wave effect (Which is what you use to destroy a fixed structure).
A lorry load of explosives would be the same issue, the bast would likely result in a crater roughly the size of the vehicle and would not be likely to create enough of a shock wave that brings down several non adjacent spans.

This could be an inside Rusk escalation with charges attached to the joints of one of the bridge junctions, including an accelerant / vaporiser.
The second option is a very large air delivery munition, by choosing a lower span, there is more opportunity for secondary shockwave reflecting back off the sea. I wonder if the lower height of the piers means. less flex in the sea creating a more rigid structure than targeting a higher level pier.
Is a long time since I did dems but we always used to look a channelling the shockwave.

Shaped charges most assuredly must NOT be in direct contact with the target. They require a standoff distance related to a multiple of the width of the charge as per the individual design. In the case of a custom-made charge built into a boat it could be a vary wide device ndeed - say a metre. A 5 times standoff distance would be at peak effitiveness at 5m, about the height of the bridge I'd guess, and such a charge laid along a boat is in the perfect alignment to sever a structure like a bridge from edge to edge.
In any case a sufficiently large in a boat under a bridge is simply going to lift it up in the air and let it drop or with enough brisance simply shatter the concrete. The blast pressure will be 'loosed' (sic) in all directions, but the water will tend to reflect much of it upwards where you want it.That'd do the job too.
If you imagine a ton or more of explosive is defeated by a 20ft airgap or only leaves a 'crater' the size of a vehicle you are way, way off the mark.
The lack of obvious scarring suggests a blast from below which had the added effect of projecting debris upwards to puncture the tank-cars.
No way was this air delivered or the defences would have lit up like Novemner 5th.

[ORAC]

Russians allowing 10 cars every 30 minutes over remaking lane of the Kerch bridge.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1578761260434268160?s=61&t=p4NUjkZojfs2-oknGRjp_w

[dead_pan]

Not sure if anyone has already posted this. Suffice to say, the rail bridge looks in need of some attention
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1578779450749042689?t=Q43aSAO3sEcjNtjbINj_aA&s=19

[BlankBox]

Bridge from another angle...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-juPsPG6FE

colorful if nothing else...

[Kent Based]

Is there a significant incline on the railway as it reaches the steel arch section over the sealane? I'm wondering if that is why the fuel train is stationary there. Is there a need for an additional engine for that section? Or is there a weight/ vibration limit so a need stop while another train passes in the other direction?

[ZeBedie]

Slow moving train stopped because the explosion happened and was able to stop quickly because it was going upgrade?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1578768784214863872?s=61&t=yhxEUnU37pkb6-GAt9cYeQ


KERCH DAMAGE: @pmakela1 posts this photo of damage to the road spans-- note the blast has pushed the spans upward from the piers. This indicates the explosion came from below.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/jvoc_kemptown/status/1578807206371553280?s=61&t=huVp87Mf-F_AIadGjxFidQ


Wagner affiliated channel Grey Zone Claims that #Russia's defense minister Shoigu has resigned following the attack on the Crimea bridge.

[petit plateau]

Slow moving train stopped because the explosion happened and was able to stop quickly because it was going upgrade?

At least some of the tank-cars had fuel in them, in general it appeared full judging by the fire. This means it was most likely heading NW into the Crimea immediately before the deep water bridge section. From what I can see online the causeway section at that point is very gently sloping upwards.(SE>NW) but it is a gentle incline. I still haven't seen anything definitive re whether a locomotive was attached when the explosion occurred.

I'm not sure how much damage there really is to the rail bridge structure. For sure all the ancilliary walkways are toast, and cable runs too. But I don't think one can extrapolate from that to the reinorced concrete itself. It is one thing being a lump of concrete above a blaze. It is quite another being a lump of concrete underneath a blazing puddle where by definition the puddle bottom is still cool enough to be a liquid.(A candle does not disintegrate just because there is a molten pool on its top). The rails etc probably aren't in good shape either. But it is the structure that is the real issue and we have nothing much to base an opinion on apart from some soot stains.

(I think I got my N and S muddled this morning, not that it mattered. Apologies. It is not obvious which direct any bomb-boat would have approached from, both are possible ... )

[ratpackgreenslug]

OMG…… THEY HAVE HIT IT………….. THE KERCH BRIDGE!!!! Apparently.

Wow…



https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1578601802345291782


OMG? Do please calm down Nutty before you blow a gasket. Browse:copy and paste - browse:copy and paste- browse:copy and paste. Wash:rinse:repeat- wash:rinse:repeat- wash:rinse:repeat. A dog chasing its tail. Norman F. Dixon had it pegged in the 70s.

Don't waste too much time reading this Nutty - just think of what you could missing on the so many other sites. Browse: copy and paste. FOMO - you'd best keep the browser moving and then scurry back here to paste.

[NutLoose]

Rather ironic that Channel 5’s movie tonight is a Bridge to Far..

[ORAC]

😂😂😂😂 Porridge…

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1578809084387553280?s=61&t=Vb4CCJEnWTfaMvQOkH2kyQ

[ratpackgreenslug]

Rather ironic that Channel 5’s movie tonight is a Bridge to Far..

Do you have a link to that Nutty?

[West Coast]

Kinda reminds me of a song for those of you old enough to remember the movie….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4GvEy20s4s

[ZeBedie]

I think you're right petit-plateau - the train was probably stopped before the explosion.

[Winemaker]

Is there a significant incline on the railway as it reaches the steel arch section over the sealane? I'm wondering if that is why the fuel train is stationary there. Is there a need for an additional engine for that section? Or is there a weight/ vibration limit so a need stop while another train passes in the other direction?
Freight railroads want an incline of less than 1.5°. There won't be an abrupt or steep section. If you look at pictures of the bridge you can see the rail line is constant height.

[NutLoose]

According to Tass the trains are running again.

First passenger train passes over Crimea bridge after incidentIt departed from the capital city of Crimea on schedule at 17.10SIMFEROPOL, October 8. /TASS/. The first passenger train has successfully gone over the entire Crimea bridge after the incident, the Grand Service Express transport company told reporters on Saturday.

"Simferopol-Moscow Bi-level Train No.28 has passed over the Crimea bridge. It was the first train to cross [the bridge] after the emergency. Train No.28 departed from the capital city of Crimea on schedule at 17.10 and has passed over the bridge," the statement says.

[Spunky Monkey]

Shaped charges most assuredly must NOT be in direct contact with the target. They require a standoff distance related to a multiple of the width of the charge as per the individual design. In the case of a custom-made charge built into a boat it could be a vary wide device ndeed - say a metre. A 5 times standoff distance would be at peak effitiveness at 5m, about the height of the bridge I'd guess, and such a charge laid along a boat is in the perfect alignment to sever a structure like a bridge from edge to edge.
In any case a sufficiently large in a boat under a bridge is simply going to lift it up in the air and let it drop or with enough brisance simply shatter the concrete. The blast pressure will be 'loosed' (sic) in all directions, but the water will tend to reflect much of it upwards where you want it.That'd do the job too.
If you imagine a ton or more of explosive is defeated by a 20ft airgap or only leaves a 'crater' the size of a vehicle you are way, way off the mark.
The lack of obvious scarring suggests a blast from below which had the added effect of projecting debris upwards to puncture the tank-cars.
No way was this air delivered or the defences would have lit up like Novemner 5th.

A shaped charge designed to sheer metal needs to be in contact with the metal, a directional shaped charge for penetrating an object can be set up with an air gap. However what you / others are suggesting is that they used a shaped charge to fire vertically along the full width of the bridge to sheer the steel and fragment the concrete to allow it to fall back in upon itself. The length of the boat would therefore have to be the width of the double roadway, at the optimum distance from the underside of the bridge, taking into account tides, waves and wind to be close to 90 deg to the bridge.
However if it was suggested that it was a BFOB, (Big F Off Bomb), then that isn't a shaped charged and that is more plausible.
There were suggestions that there were multiple air strikes (incl MLRS) yesterday evening so perhaps a missile did manage top get through, especially as the air defences were already lit up like Novemner 5th (sic).
After all the Moskva was sunk by missiles that were supposedly not able to do their job against a guided missile cruiser.
Fanciful the idea may be, but the idea of a Ukrainian boat travelling such a great distance without being spotted also takes a leap of faith.

Time will tell and there is little point in willy waving when the facts are extremely limited.

[dagenham]

This kind of suggests it ‘‘twas the boat and the rail road was happy collateral damage


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/752x447/fd44337d_3298_4eab_a4ff_fa2d8e15d370_4f5c3b84c9c6737ae468e53 e37a4b9a3b9ad2d44.jpeg
Evidence

[fdr]

There is a reasonable assumption that a UUV was used to do this attack. Curiously, it is coming from the Sea of Azov. Russian controlled territory.

If so, who dunnit?

Is Russia so porous that Ukrainian SF are moving effortlessly through the area?
Or SF are cunning enough to move a 24'-30' UUV through Russia to strike from the north side of the Kerch?
Is this a power play inside Russia to undermine (bomb) Putin and his war machine?
Or did a UUV decide to drive beyond a target and then circle back? As in through an area that has security and CCTV coverage?

Curious.:bored:

[Wokkafans]

A different angle showing the damage to the bridge.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1578754256961617920?s=20&t=ny78HMY8ZWAV-PfgwkACEw

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1578754256961617920?s=20&t=ny78HMY8ZWAV-PfgwkACEw

[Professor Plum]

Do you have a link to that Nutty?

https://www.channel5.com/show/a-bridge-too-far

see you next Tuesday green slug thing

[Redlands]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1769x715/screenshot_2022_10_09_015221_ca98578354150aebd4ff04a5b908b65 658c8ed69.png

[Sue Vêtements]

The red circle thing is just a wave

[Redlands]

The red circle thing is just a wave
I would agree, the blast occurring as the truck passed the next support along from the one circled.

[fdr]

I would agree, the blast occurring as the truck passed the next support along from the one circled.

The red circle thing is just a wave

The truck driver of the one that is in the explosion is still alive, and says he had no idea of what was in his load. I would suspect that if he is talking about it, then an explosion large enough to blow mulitple deck sections off their bearings would make it hard for him to talk without an ouji board. CORRECTION: The owner of the truck has been interviewed, his uncle was driving the truck, and has been rather quiet since the event.

That "wave" looks split by a stem, and for the video before hand, there is no similar "wave" which suggests it is not a "wave". Whether the boat is the cause of the explosion, I concur that the main blast appears to be in the channel next over from where the ? "Wave" is. If so, then it was an unfortunate experience for the boat in that channel, much like the truck driver with the ouji board.

Was the blast from above or below the deck? if below deck, it is either from the piles, and then it would reasonably expected that major damage would occur to the piles, no photos yet suggest that occurred. That would be from sabotage, or, of course a cigarette problem with prepared self destruct mechanisms.... which would be an own goal. If from below and not from a pile, it is from a..... boat/mine torpedo, take your pick. It is shallow water, most of those have issues.

What is not in question is the importance of Kerch is reinforced in the Russian's minds, and the bridge is at risk at this time, as it has been for a while. Necessity being the mother of invention, there are numerous ways to range the bridge, it is essentially untenable to have a presence in Crimea predicated on a ready target-able asset. The main take home from this is that the design of the bridge was sensitive to blast. That gives specific aiming points to target on the decks for the smaller payload munitions. The railway shows that it is not happy with a flammable load that gets a match anywhere near by. How long until the timing of train crossings gives good intel on putting drone missiles into the trains. Overall, it is a prime target and that is a problem to trying to hold the illegally annexed territory of Crimea.

[Redlands]

That "wave" looks split by a stem
Early onset pareidolia :)

[India Four Two]

Early onset pareidolia https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

Thanks Redlands. A new addition to my vocabulary! :ok:
pareidolia - the tendency to perceive a specific, often meaningful image in a random or ambiguous visual pattern

[fdr]

Early onset pareidolia :)
:} not so early

The situation if it was a truck detonation is still problematic for Vlad.
The truck is coming across from the Russian end with a bomb on board, and has been through security according to Russian video. The driver of the truck is Russian, from the Kuban Oblast which is, the east end of the straits. 47% of the locals have Ukrainian as their primary language. Assuming he is completely innocent as a victim, he has to pick up a load and not know what it is, and then take it along a route that can be guessed at but the timing is up to his planning, so detonation has to be by a remote means, and that means either a position transponder, or an observation of the truck for the whole of it's journey, the detonation being triggered by some car behind. If they know what they are working with, then they also know that they are likely to be contained by the damage that the truck does when it goes off. Cell phone cover is good enough to track a truck there? An Uber truck?

The bridge by any means is vulnerable to a group that is intent to remove it's utility to Vlad. Ukraine can find a number of methods to range to the bridge, nothing that they have done so far suggests lack of imagination.

Could this be a false flag? Maybe, the outcome probably surprised everyone involved. Either way, the bridge appears to be a little sensitive to being messed with. The long term problem remains, it is not reliable for supply to Crimea, and that is the main thing. Previously, getting enough range out of a Tosca-U or similar didn't have an expectation of doing much damage on arrival. Right now, there is every indication that there are parts of the bridge that are sensitive to impact. The roadway is one thing; the railway is very exposed to an attack. If the local intel is good enough to track a truck on the bridge, it is going to be tracking trains. Russia still has a supply problem, that is easily fixed by their moving back to Russia.

[petit plateau]

Re the road bridge :

Personally I'm still minded towards the bomb-boat explanation. The under-bridge photo linked above is, in my opinion, looking at this wrong. Here is a helpful Maxar shot, taken from the north (NE) with the westbound (towards Crimea) side of the road closest to us. The shipping channel and high bridge is to the right. The wind at the time was blowing from the bottom of the Maxar picture towards the top of the maxar picture.

First observe that there has only been only one explosion and it took place where the sooting is on the surviving bridge deck.

Second if you look at the videos that blast is not just white homogenous smoke of a pure explosive, instead it is streaked with heterogenous coloured matter that indicates that something was mixed in it. Either an enhancer such as aluminium, and/or a jet slug such as copper, or perhaps both. It is hard to be sure what as the CCTV images are low quality. It was the spray from those particles that splashed at high velocity through the rail tank-wagons both penetrating the tank walls and setting fire to the now-leaking fuel cargo.

Third understand how that road bridge failed. That span was lifted upwards by a blast below it. The net thrust of the blast was slightly inboard of the longitudinal axis and has flipped the span slightly towards outboard so that when it landed back down it is flipped slightly northwards and displaced off its origninal bearing points. There is some evidence in the below-bridge picture that there is a hole in the piece of the bridge deck that was just above water level - I am not sure if that is happenstance or if that is a molten penetrator from an upwards-firing shaped charge. We would need close-up photos of the broken span-end to be sure either way. But irrespective that span lifted and failed into two pieces, then fell back. As it lifted it pulled the section to its right (towards the high-bridge / shipping channel) towards it i.e. the right-hand end of that section moved leftwards. That right hand end is an expansion joint segment and so it simply pulled away cleanly and fell off its support points and fell in the water without the span breaking in two - it has dropped into the water because its left hand end has been dispaced laterally (outboard). If you look to the left a couple more segments you see that a third section was similarly pulled off its bearers and has fallen at one end, but because it has only received a longitudinal pull and no lateral pull, the leftmost end has not fallen into the water. Instead it is most likely resting on the pile cap.Again this is where an expansion joint is located.

Fourth, the below-bridge shows very little sooting or other evidence of damage on the visible section of its right-side pile cap and pier. That indicates this was a directional explosion. I find it hard to imagine an ATACM warhead of 500kg punching through the bridge deck, exploding below, and doing so in such a way as to cleanly directionally explode backwards along its rocket motor axis. It seems to me much more likely that this was a c.1,000kg device carried by a bomb-boat that was shaped so as to blast predominantly upwards.

Fifth, there is no evidence I can discern as to which direction the bomb-boat would have conducted its final approach from. The most likely direction is from the Sea of Azov, but there is no evidence either way. Irrespective that is also not evidence that the general approach would have been from that direction - if anything the more likely oute would have been a hooked entrance from the seawards side.

Sixth. The SAM systems didn't go off. And if the Ukraine had ATACMs they would have had more than one and used them simultaneously so as to saturate the SAM defences. And they would definitely have targetted the rail bridge.

BUT - if better evidence comes to light then I'm sure we will hear about it. The above is my best opinion based on the evidence I can see in the public data.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/656x874/image_610e1267cc488f57ee0ac8ccaec993785c4e0893.png
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/752x447/image_312c3de591e6e163dc8fc7b89df025415fac4a8e.png

[B Fraser]

Not sure if anyone has already posted this. Suffice to say, the rail bridge looks in need of some attention
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1578779450749042689?t=Q43aSAO3sEcjNtjbINj_aA&s=19

That bridge looks prone to Failure Under Continual Testing........basically, it's FUCT.

[henra]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1769x715/screenshot_2022_10_09_015221_ca98578354150aebd4ff04a5b908b65 658c8ed69.png
I checked the videao again step by step.
What we see in the picture is just a bow wave. You can see that a small wave forms behind the pillar of the bridge as well at the left border of the circle, due to water being displaced by some fast boat passing by. The swell is coming from the right. What we see might be the bow wave of a boat driving at an angle from the right into the next bridge field. There is no actual boat to be seen, just its waves.
The delicate thing is that this boat must have come geografically from Russia or at least from 100% Russian controlled territory and then 150km across the whole Azov Sea.
Fascinating.

[Low average]

Wonder if all of this analysis is a gift to the Russian investigation team?

[Beamr]

Wonder if all of this analysis is a gift to the Russian investigation team?
not really, the result has already been decided. In Kremlin.
Remember how quickly they "solved" the Moscow car bomb a while back?

[petit plateau]

Wonder if all of this analysis is a gift to the Russian investigation team?

Personally I am only commenting on stuff that is very public domain, and most Western observers seem to be taking the same approach. The Russians will have better info than we do, and they are just as capable of thinking through the implications. It has been very obvious since that UUV washed ashore that stuff was going on, but most of us were very cautious about what we said at that time since we did not wish to say anything about the future that wasn't a statement of the blindingly obvious, for fear of giving hints. Commenting on blindingly obvious historical events is less of a problem in that respect.

[henra]

Wonder if all of this analysis is a gift to the Russian investigation team?
???C'mon.
I mean they might not be the brightest bulbs on the planet but they are ON SITE. If it was a boat they will find it PHYSICALLY. They will determine chemically what explosives have been used and how the bomb was designed. Guys, even if they are militarily failing in an epic way currently, Russia has flown to space and they still have quite good scientists. Let's not totally underestimate them.

[pilotmike]

A beautifully worded put-down of multiple countries / continents. Very neatly done.

[fdr]

I checked the videao again step by step.
What we see in the picture is just a bow wave. You can see that a small wave forms behind the pillar of the bridge as well at the left border of the circle, due to water being displaced by some fast boat passing by. The swell is coming from the right. What we see might be the bow wave of a boat driving at an angle from the right into the next bridge field. There is no actual boat to be seen, just its waves.
The delicate thing is that this boat must have come geografically from Russia or at least from 100% Russian controlled territory and then 150km across the whole Azov Sea.
Fascinating.

Its late (laite?) where you are I guess, or we both need glasses. However, yeah, whatever way this is read, Russia has an infernal internal problem... this was done in their back yard, and more or less there is a major problem that Vladomort has with Russians, forget about Ukranian's. When the home team is playing for your oppo's, it's time to go home. The odd thing is, it really doesn't matter if they did 1 if by road and 2 if by sea; both vectors are through the home teams mitts!

That bridge looks prone to Failure Under Continual Testing........basically, it's FUCT.

If not, it'll do until the next time it gets wupped about the ears. The images of the road spans from below are revealing, and thanks for whoever handed that over, as the Ukrainians have a nice heads up confirmation of the structure, and where to whup it next time. I'm pretty sure that the civil engineers out there and those that have a good FEA analysis can confirm what the new coordinates for plinking is going to be. The Ruffians Russians would be better off leaving it as it is, there will be less damage to the bridge in the long run, and there would be lower tariffs for the bridge when Ruffians Russians want to holiday in a civilized country, assuming that Russian passports are ever again accepted anywhere outside of North Korea.


Re the road bridge :

Personally I'm still minded towards the bomb-boat explanation. The under-bridge photo linked above is, in my opinion, looking at this wrong. Here is a helpful Maxar shot, taken from the north (NE) with the westbound (towards Crimea) side of the road closest to us. The shipping channel and high bridge is to the right. The wind at the time was blowing from the bottom of the Maxar picture towards the top of the maxar picture.

First observe that there has only been only one explosion and it took place where the sooting is on the surviving bridge deck.

Second if you look at the videos that blast is not just white homogenous smoke of a pure explosive, instead it is streaked with heterogenous coloured matter that indicates that something was mixed in it. Either an enhancer such as aluminium, and/or a jet slug such as copper, or perhaps both. It is hard to be sure what as the CCTV images are low quality. It was the spray from those particles that splashed at high velocity through the rail tank-wagons both penetrating the tank walls and setting fire to the now-leaking fuel cargo.

Third understand how that road bridge failed. That span was lifted upwards by a blast below it. The net thrust of the blast was slightly inboard of the longitudinal axis and has flipped the span slightly towards outboard so that when it landed back down it is flipped slightly northwards and displaced off its origninal bearing points. There is some evidence in the below-bridge picture that there is a hole in the piece of the bridge deck that was just above water level - I am not sure if that is happenstance or if that is a molten penetrator from an upwards-firing shaped charge. We would need close-up photos of the broken span-end to be sure either way. But irrespective that span lifted and failed into two pieces, then fell back. As it lifted it pulled the section to its right (towards the high-bridge / shipping channel) towards it i.e. the right-hand end of that section moved leftwards. That right hand end is an expansion joint segment and so it simply pulled away cleanly and fell off its support points and fell in the water without the span breaking in two - it has dropped into the water because its left hand end has been dispaced laterally (outboard). If you look to the left a couple more segments you see that a third section was similarly pulled off its bearers and has fallen at one end, but because it has only received a longitudinal pull and no lateral pull, the leftmost end has not fallen into the water. Instead it is most likely resting on the pile cap.Again this is where an expansion joint is located.

Fourth, the below-bridge shows very little sooting or other evidence of damage on the visible section of its right-side pile cap and pier. That indicates this was a directional explosion. I find it hard to imagine an ATACM warhead of 500kg punching through the bridge deck, exploding below, and doing so in such a way as to cleanly directionally explode backwards along its rocket motor axis. It seems to me much more likely that this was a c.1,000kg device carried by a bomb-boat that was shaped so as to blast predominantly upwards.

Fifth, there is no evidence I can discern as to which direction the bomb-boat would have conducted its final approach from. The most likely direction is from the Sea of Azov, but there is no evidence either way. Irrespective that is also not evidence that the general approach would have been from that direction - if anything the more likely oute would have been a hooked entrance from the seawards side.

Sixth. The SAM systems didn't go off. And if the Ukraine had ATACMs they would have had more than one and used them simultaneously so as to saturate the SAM defences. And they would definitely have targetted the rail bridge.

BUT - if better evidence comes to light then I'm sure we will hear about it. The above is my best opinion based on the evidence I can see in the public data.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/656x874/image_610e1267cc488f57ee0ac8ccaec993785c4e0893.png
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/752x447/image_312c3de591e6e163dc8fc7b89df025415fac4a8e.png

paradoxically, the underside images suggest the opposite to me, that the underside was protected from the blast. Interesting pictures though. The detail analysis that the FSB will do by pulling finger nails from whoever they are going to find had 3 SIM games, 2 fake Russian passports in the name of V.V. Putin and I. Lenin, and the "I did it, I'm glad I did it and I would do it again, once I have my 9th birthday!" note that seems to be quite prevalent in Moscow at least nowdays.

The direction of approach if by sea, the risk of discovery on approach from any side would make it pretty odd to hook back after surviving access to the bridge structure. Might have been an issue with fireships of old, (ask the Spanglish) but a powered boat?

On the question of are we helping brand X with their investigation... anything that has a time delay, and which suggests that Russia has issues with Pukin is helpful to the Ukrainians.
A time delay so where there is domestic support involved, they are able to get their sandals on and scarper, (they can blend in with the Russian recruits who are being donated all terrain, all weather arctic/desert/tropical sandals.... ). Any analysis that highlights natives are restless is beneficial for Ukraine. Putin has a major problem within his own turf, and he has to sort that out, and that needs all of the forces that he has left after his efforts to gift Russian equipment and more citizens to Ukraine, while removing the offensive capability of Russia. Commenting on the expected reaction of Russia is not helpful to Russia, it might save lives in Ukraine, but by now, they are getting well trained on the methods of Vladamort, an attack on Zaphorizhia that just killed 17 civilians, at a non-military target was expected behavior, and it is still a war crime.

About time Russian G-2 went to spec savers so that they can recognize a military target instead of stacking up their war crimes.
You don't win a fight by hitting the defenceless civilians, didn't work against Russia so can't fathom why they continue wasting their ammunition in perpetrating war crimes that harden the resolve of the Ukrainians and make it easier for the rest of the world to be disgusted with them to the extent that the support for Ukraine grows by every act of dishonor by Russia. Was ever thus.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/770x512/2022_10_09t070803z_1029951097_rc2fxw93ktdv_rtrmadp_3_ukraine _crisis_zaporizhzhia_copy_929c728d5b0d0bf8b531dabb43aedea499 089ea1.png


Henra: ???C'mon. I mean they might not be the brightest bulbs on the planet but they are ON SITE. If it was a boat they will find it PHYSICALLY. They will determine chemically what explosives have been used and how the bomb was designed. Guys, even if they are militarily failing in an epic way currently, Russia has flown to space and they still have quite good scientists. Let's not mistake them for Africa.

Absolutely, and they are very adept at making up evidence, well, if you forget the passports, military IDs' Nazi membership cards, from the recent cigarette lighter of Dugina, or the Salisbury clock alibi... :}

The Russians of course didn't get the Moscow apartment bombing report, done by Russians, for Russians, against Russians that was blamed on Chechnya, done so well. They didn't get the facts right for the shoot down of MI-017 by their teams in the donbas, that took others of an international investigation to get right.


P.S.: as of today, Russia is complaining that Ukraine conducted a terrorist act with the Crimea Bridge... Irony is apparently not a concept that translates into Russian. Its supposed to; Irony: ирония. Seems to be a color more than a concept related to causation. like "Goldy": золотой, Silvery: серебристый. But, the Hague confirms today that they are investigating 34,000 suspected war crimes committed by Russia since February 24 2022. That is getting to be a record. We should start a new wikipedia page on Russian criminal actions, the war crime volume. The dead deserve that at least.

[Kent Based]

If you look at pictures of the bridge you can see the rail line is constant height.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1080x694/pdenx3vib5jv3b3s7ehklzv4nm_183b1680a7693f58cd14971b034577965 8213a3b.jpg

There is an incline up to the arched section. Only relevant as there may have been an issue with weights and speed here before the explosion. Just trying to figure why the fuel train had stopped right there.

[NutLoose]

Bridge lane open to cars.

https://twitter.com/Merc4Ukraine/status/1578972649359044608

https://twitter.com/Merc4Ukraine/status/157897264935904460

[MPN11]

Bridge lane open to cars.

I wonder whose cars they are ... rather smarter than the average, no? However, a lot of difference between a BMW and a KAZ loaded with food/ammo.

[NutLoose]

I wonder whose cars they are ... rather smarter than the average, no? However, a lot of difference between a BMW and a KAZ loaded with food/ammo.

it did say ferry’s are in use for trucks

I still think a boat detonated under the left span where the blackening is on the top decks, lifted it into the air and split it in two, The lifting then pulled the right span from its expansion joint and dropped that into the sea, the sheared left span then falling back and also dropping into the sea.

[ORAC]

Bridge train fuel wagons still slowly being removed.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1579055455430582277?s=61&t=Vu0lO1tJvY23nkYb9AH2vQ


https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1579070996862349312?s=61&t=Vu0lO1tJvY23nkYb9AH2vQ

[GeeRam]

The images of the road spans from below are revealing, and thanks for whoever handed that over, as the Ukrainians have a nice heads up confirmation of the structure, and where to whup it next time. I'm pretty sure that the civil engineers out there and those that have a good FEA analysis can confirm what the new coordinates for plinking is going to be. The Ruffians Russians would be better off leaving it as it is, there will be less damage to the bridge in the long run, and there would be lower tariffs for the bridge when Ruffians Russians want to holiday in a civilized country, assuming that Russian passports are ever again accepted anywhere outside of North Korea.

paradoxically, the underside images suggest the opposite to me, that the underside was protected from the blast. Interesting pictures though.


I now agree, all the soot and charred area on the deck on those overhead photo's are quite telling, with nothing underneath.
As an old Structural Engineer I was convinced that it had to be from below to lift those decks, no deck level blast would or should lift those deck spans......until I saw those underneath photo's!
No wonder they managed to build this in just 4 years looking at that design.......never seen a bridge deck span design done like that..! Its certainly, err......different.....you wouldn't see a design like that in the western world. Maybe it was the truck, and the spans did just lift off sideways in the blast!!

[Chu Chu]

It looks like there was a rigid span bridging three piers (?) If so, and if the span got severed toward one end, the resulting cantilever load might cause it to buckle at the center pier. And the far end might get pulled off the third pier somewhere in the sequence?

[RatherBeFlying]

The blast videos show great gobs of shrapnel and debris coming up from below and curving over to the rail span.

​​​​​How much soot on the underside of the span would there be from an underwater explosion?

The soot on the top of the span is next to the tank fires.

Back in WWII, the B-26s found that bombed out abutments took longer to repair than spans.

[petit plateau]

It looks like there was a rigid span bridging three piers (?) If so, and if the span got severed toward one end, the resulting cantilever load might cause it to buckle at the center pier. And the far end might get pulled off the third pier somewhere in the sequence?

Four spans between five piers, between expansion joints at either end of the four span section. See my post #10379

[NutLoose]

I now agree, all the soot and charred area on the deck on those overhead photo's are quite telling, with nothing underneath.
As an old Structural Engineer I was convinced that it had to be from below to lift those decks, no deck level blast would or should lift those deck spans......until I saw those underneath photo's!
No wonder they managed to build this in just 4 years looking at that design.......never seen a bridge deck span design done like that..! Its certainly, err......different.....you wouldn't see a design like that in the western world. Maybe it was the truck, and the spans did just lift off sideways in the blast!!

if you look at my links in my post earlier they criticised the build as its on a earthquake plain and has a poor bed to put the foundations on.

Question :

Having dropped one lane, the other lane is now putting all the weight on one side of the pier, will that cause issues as the spans are far out from the central pier.

[BlankBox]

The blast videos show great gobs of shrapnel and debris coming up from below and curving over to the rail span.

​​​​​How much soot on the underside of the span would there be from an underwater explosion?

The soot on the top of the span is next to the tank fires.

Back in WWII, the B-26s found that bombed out abutments took longer to repair than spans.

like this...

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/650x366/bb_e7261417a8e490c3f760d97e4edb3ce6dc93e2d8.jpg

[ORAC]

At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1579204639097991169?s=61&t=lZwXoW-tkvdd1WyFcYavIg


Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….

[Wokkafans]

At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…



Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….


The ID card image is Sam Hyde - a US comedian and internet troll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Hyde

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/299x168/download_3__66c20fe0574151092254e722e1dfa9387c8e08e1.jpg

[NutLoose]

Paranoia Russian style

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579168584445886464

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579168584445886464

[fdr]

At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…



Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….


Was the truck driver 8 years old, female, with green hair, a Nazi T shirt, and 3 SIM games????

The FSB really is not what they used to be.

There is an implied insult to the Russian people that the powers that be could blame Ronald McDonald for the Tunguska crater, and the Russian population will accept the pig swill that is presented.
Kerch is looking quite possibly to be a Russian resistance response against the Russian presence in Ukraine, which is making Putin a better culler of Russians than the Black Death.
Putin may have done an Arnhem, and got a bridge in the cross hairs of his own team.

[fdr]

At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…



Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….

and the document number above the serial number: 19910824-00026 That has all the hallmarks of being a Russian version of the EU Emsho, and that is the date of birth, of the girl from Moscow.... :}
and the same expiry date...
and the same signature...
If this came from Russia, then they really are taking the mickey out of Putin. I presume that it is so bad that it is a meme from someone running along the same line of the credibility and competency of the FSB.

Awwww. C'mon! the Russians know the name and address of the driver of the truck at least, that was given to the Russians at the security checkpoint when the Russians inspected the truck and found it suitable for task er, ooops, not holding excess Vodka/contraband etc. By water or by land, this attack involved Russians either independent or in concert with Ukrainians.

Of course, Russia hasn't made an objection as yet to someone destroying Ukrainian property whilst under the care of the bare bear. In fact, come to think of it, Ukraine should bill Russia for the damage done to the illegally erected structure built on Ukrainian land, and for the demolition of it without an approval to demolish or remove the illegally built structure. I known my council would be over us like a rash for doing what the Russians have done.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x343/screen_shot_2022_10_10_at_10_11_08_am_2fe05fe091fb4f226f35da 45c42273299f6c4817.png
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x357/screen_shot_2022_10_10_at_10_11_27_am_9d1c1f017b83e48b7f86e1 f6c0143c5e1903e2e2.png

[fdr]

Ukraine has played an excellent innings so far. They have exceeded global expectations on every score, and continue to do so.

If Ukraine had planned the attack, they would have done it in concert with attacks on the A-14 roadway and railways feeding into Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. That would have achieved the greatest political fallout for Putin. Yet, that didn't happen. Instead, a fairly large charge, but suspiciously not mil explosives, This was not high velocity shock front... I'm thinking Arbies ANFO.

So, in the last 2 weeks, Vladomort has had a massive push back in relation to manning his meat grinder. The natives are getting restless, and have a bit of an issue about the cost benefit that is being offered by Vlad's storm troopers. How does Vlad gain a reversal of his fortunes on the home front? What can the natives rally around readily? "What would Plato do?".

There are 2 contenders outside of Ukrainian and 5th column Russian resistance to Putin, that is:

FSB - Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation - Федеральная служба безопасности Российской Федерации (ФСБ России), tr. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanization_of_Russian) Federal'naya sluzhba bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii;
RF - Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - Вооружённые Си́лы Росси́йской Федера́ции, tr. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanization_of_Russian) Vooruzhonnije Síly Rossíyskoj Federátsii.

Out of these two, the FSB has shown a propensity to blow up it's own people, they did that twice in Moscow a few years back, and that was used as the casus belli for a tiff with Chechnya. Out of these two usual suspects, one has adequate knowledge of explosives to do a demonstration sufficient to get sympathy without taking out a critical MSR. The others have shown their behaviour of overkill.
If this was a truck bomb:

Who had control of the security checkpoint?
Who arranged to park fuel tanker wagons on a part of the rail line, on top of a known target?
Who had access of CCTV to time popping off the charge?

So Cheech n' Chong (Olaf n' Igor) set up a truck driver (1 if by land) with a set of explosives to make a spectacular show but limited damage, and then usher the poor victim through security, (photographed) and don't find any explosives... as they know that they are there. and retire to their security office to video the guy driving off into the sunset dawn. And then send him off on his way to nirvana. cue violins, harps, martial music, stern looking Putin visage... "We shall not let this outrage pass!".

Wicktor n' Vanya (2 if by sea) set up ANFO on a boat, and get the dolphins out of sonar range, and drive by the PS2 the boat to the same location and set off the touch paper. Security is advised to look the other way so there is no video of the boat arriving from Russia.

Qui bono?

Vladamort gets sympathy to his cause on the death star, If the FSB has done the dirty work, they get their own back by the embarrasment to the Army for incompetence.

The bang was more effective than expected; this bridge is made of Meccano crossed with Lego. It is not overbuilt for sure. If the blast was from the truck, with or without the drivers awareness, the trigger person is probably surprised that humpty dumpty fell down, that bridge is somewhat less sound than some old bailey bridges going back to round II.

Had Ukraine done this, there would have been another direct attack against the land bridges in Kherson or NE, to make the point that the Russians are at risk with their MSRs. That is indeed the case, the bridge is shown to be readily open to interdiction, much more than the Antanovsky bridge.

This is a high probability maskirovska action. Impressive video tho'....

Occam's Razor

Well done Vlad!

:}

IMHO


P.S.: On what other occasion has Ukraine conducted a suicide mission? On what occasions has the FSB done assisted suicide against the will or knowledge of the soon to be dearly departed?

This stinks of incompetent FSB involvement and an attempt by Putin to get public opinion on side, while putting the Russian Army in it's place. I would suggest the Army staff look to their loyalties, and take action against the person and system that is involved in killing their troops. [hint: they aren't based west of the Ukraine border...]

[jolihokistix]

On my way east last Thursday… at least we were firmly over Turkey this time.



https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x528/8d69c056_e11f_42cc_a8d4_458ef048f3d3_c45c20963d4ce4a118c63dc f88bc4e173a3f2600.jpeg

[jolihokistix]

Heading west on another airline off the coast of Turkey however had been a little close for comfort.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x441/20dda980_355c_4d12_91e7_e520419f3ad2_2e00d26534e8f1625195ab7 cc7e74b8697f4f12f.jpeg

[jolihokistix]

Oh and just in case anyone missed it, this is the kind of boat floating around off Sevastopol, whether one of these was involved or not.
https://www.coffeeordie.com/ukraine-kamikaze-drone-boats

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1579489296569888769?s=61&t=HcbrNE04agdPmNj2UMZSUA


KERCH BRIDGE STRIKE: New overhead imagery reveals additional failures to bridge sections adjoining the blast site. Positioning of repair vehicles indicate that the extent of hidden damage is likely extensive.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1892x1196/image_b4e70b9ac4f39b89fc9ad75806e6e80f306679cf.jpeg

[NutLoose]

Lifting the train tanks, I don't know if they are simply being put onto the tracks again or lfted over onto another train to remove them. Would be an ideal time to hit it again as the cranes are purchased in the west and I bet they do not have many.

https://twitter.com/sami_viitanen/status/1579059019322626048


https://twitter.com/sami_viitanen/status/1579059019322626048

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579469546616127488

[Wokkafans]

Damage to the tracks on the bridge.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618?s=20&t=AITESgXcQWWaIfKA1NN0zw

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618?s=20&t=AITESgXcQWWaIfKA1NN0zw

[NutLoose]

More on the melted tracks. If the bogies have melted like that and the fire was whipping underneath the bridge I would think that structure is dubious at the least. From about 27 secs you can see distortion on the bridge steels between both tracks.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618?cxt=HHwWhMDUsYvv1esrAAAA

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618?cxt=HHwWhMDUsYvv1esrAAAA

[Lonewolf_50]

KERCH BRIDGE STRIKE: New overhead imagery reveals additional failures to bridge sections adjoining the blast site.
Does the person who posted that picture have clear confirmation about "precision strike munition" or are they guessing about that?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1579549903214501888?s=61&t=7s76m9TF_PgTD0PUpaJr1A


MELTED TRACK: MAKS 22 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA has posted this video of damage to the rail bed, tracks and underlayment of the railway of the Kerch Straits bridge. The heat of burning tank cars has, in places, malformed the track; it's also likely to have weakened the bridge itself...

[meleagertoo]

It seems to me that one of the difficulties we have built into our high precision weapons mentality is losing the notion that although a surgical strike with a mere 300Kg charge will take out a nasty Ayatollah and his house it simply can't deal wth a bloody great bridge - to the extent that we've lost the ability to take out bloody great bridges at all.
We've seen that multiple strikes from tube artillery all making one meter holes at one end of a bridge merely leaves the bridge standing, damaged sure but probably still useable.

Busting bridges requires dropping entire spans, not making 1m holes in the road deck.

The first try on the Kerch bridge did just that. And having seen the extraordinary structure of the bridge no wonder a boat bomb took it out, for that is surely what was did the job.

Next trick; to get another similar charge under the other span. And then to see that the next flammable train burns properly and melts the railway too...

Vlad - Happy Birthday mate....

G0 Ukraine!

[fdr]

Can rule out this event being caused by a missile, evidence so far points towards non military grade explosives with additives for enhanced thermal effects.
Delivery is either by boat or truck, with the truck being most obvious means, however the explosion epicenter seems to actually be behind the trucks location... which is curious.
In all cases, the device came from Russian controlled territory, and yet it is contended that the Ukrainians did this. We are to assume that Ukraine would not expect putin to go into a "rage" and attack what? the only thing that exists that Russia can hit, which is civilian targets, as they are soft and concentrated, Russia's preferred method of conducting genocide.

Ukraine has been rational to date, and a strike on the bridge without also hitting the land MSR routes misses the mark on rational strategy.Ukraine can range the A-14 along much of it;s length already, yet didn't make a fashion statement. Nor did they strike the rail line infrastructure at the same time. This doesn't appear to be up to the standard of Ukraine's planning, it has all the hallmarks of a botched FSB effort, the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

Reportedly Shoigu has resigned and is taking up decorating his daughters 14M USD dacha, not bad for an unemployed 18 Y/O. Who says crime doesn't pay? Certainly not Putin.

I'm leaning heavily to this being an internecine tiff for control of the Titanic's wheelhouse, with or without Putin being fully informed.

Suspect someone in the FSB is wearing a cone of shame for the overly exuberant display and the whoopsie that the train happened to be there to add to the show. How did Ukraine otherwise get a bomb past the worlds greatest border guards? straight through security... nice pictures... from inside Russia? during hostilities? Is Russian internal security that shambolic?

Stinks of maskirovska, and that suggests more to come.

[meleagertoo]

MELTED TRACK: MAKS 22 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA has posted this video of damage to the rail bed, tracks and underlayment of the railway of the Kerch Straits bridge. The heat of burning tank cars has, in places, malformed the track; it's also likely to have weakened the bridge itself...
That's like showing burned carpet in a house fire.
Tracks gone, so what? They're repairable in a couple of days. There's no evidence of serious damage (I didn't say no damage) to the underlying structure but even if there was does anyone really suppose the sickeningly wimpish Western H & S rules for running trains across it would apply in Russia even it was remotely possible; as if crews would have a choice when assigned to that duty and find out the hard way if the bridge could take it?

We still haven't got the message yet, have we?

The message of how Russia wages war?

I suspect we're about to find out.

Nuc?

Nah.

Gas.

[fdr]

It seems to me that one of the difficulties we have built into our high precision weapons mentality is losing the notion that although a surgical strike with a mere 300Kg charge will take out a nasty Ayatollah and his house it simply can't deal wth a bloody great bridge - to the extent that we've lost the ability to take out bloody great bridges at all.
We've seen that multiple strikes from tube artillery all making one meter holes at one end of a bridge merely leaves the bridge standing, damaged sure but probably still useable.

Busting bridges requires dropping entire spans, not making 1m holes in the road deck.

The first try on the Kerch bridge did just that. And having seen the extraordinary structure of the bridge no wonder a boat bomb took it out, for that is surely what was did the job.

Next trick; to get another similar charge under the other span. And then to see that the next flammable train burns properly and melts the railway too...

Vlad - Happy Birthday mate....

G0 Ukraine!

may well have been a boat bomb, but I contend the gratefully received photos of the structure indicate this bridge was designed to be dropped readily. The exact targeting for small charges is now public domain, many thanks Russia. They are able to be transposed onto the main structure and good coordinates for striking with much smaller warheads. This isn't Paul Doumer, this is a relatively weak structure with critical load points asking for a TB2 strike or 2.

If it was my football, I'd be packing up and going home, this bridge isn't going to guarantee supply to Crimea.

[fdr]

Follow up:

Why would the strike package against the civilian targets in Ukraine have been [reportedly, unconfirmed] issued on 2nd and 3rd October?
Someone knows who did the bridge, and I would lay odds that it isn't Ukraine. As yet, Ukraine has not stated they did this. If they didn't, which is my suspicion, then they gain considerably by stating that now. How so? as it will filter back into Russia that an attack (once again, like the 5 in 1999) was done by their own government to gain popular public support for more Russians to go and get dead in Ukraine to benefit Putin and his various offshore bank accounts, and his rapidly diminishing master clique currently suffering a bout of bad luck and attendant attrition.

Now, sayiing you didn't do it, but Russia did, and they didn't do it very well, doesn't preclude the Ukrainians now showing how to do it properly, as in with coordination, against the bridge, and coast roads and rail that are occupied by the Russians on Ukrainian sovereign soil.

Nothing is better than exposing that the government did it to their own people so they can kill more of their own people for the benefit of a corrupt few. :ok:

[Winemaker]

This isn't Paul Doumer, this is a relatively weak structure with critical load points asking for a TB2 strike or 2.

It is a weak structure as the bridge deck spans are retained by gravity, not hard structure. The steel bridge spans must have a mounting system to allow for thermal expansion and contraction which, with the hot summers and cold winters of the area, is substantial. For example, a 200 foot steel beam will expand about 2 inches with a temperature delta of 120° F (sorry about the imperial units). There are multiple bridge support systems to accomplish this, though from the photos I suspect the rocker and pin bearing system is used; as one can see, the span is held in place only by its own weight.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/477x106/rocker_bridge_bearing2_1c61f397bfbe79347d532bf79ead8cda7a9a2 096.jpg
This seems susceptible to earthquake or explosive damage; it's not surprising the spans fell. Joints would seem a good target for rocket attack.....

Edited for gramma.

[fdr]

It is a weak structure as the bridge deck spans are retained by gravity, not hard structure. The steel the bridge spans must have a mounting system to allow for thermal expansion and contraction which, with the hot summers and cold winters of the area, is substantial. For example, a 200 foot steel beam will expand about 2 inches with a temperature delta of 120° F (sorry about the imperial units). There are multiple bridge support systems to accomplish this, though from the photos I suspect the rocker and pin bearing system is used; as one can see, the span is held in place only by its own weight.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/477x106/rocker_bridge_bearing2_1c61f397bfbe79347d532bf79ead8cda7a9a2 096.jpg
This seems susceptible to earthquake or explosive damage; its not surprising the spans fell. Joints would seem a good target for rocket attack.....

Yup, and they are apparent even on google earth.

Time for the bridge to end, along with the A-14, and the rail links. at the same time, by Ukraine this time, they have already been the victim of the terrorist in the Kremlin, and the bridge and road & rail infrastructure in Ukraine is Ukraines to deny from the terrorist organisation that the Kremlin is.

On related matters, I have been getting responses now from my email complaints to various Ministry of Foreign Affairs in relation to the application of the UN Charter, purported "Veto". The Charter is the controlling document, and the term "Veto" does not arise in the Charter. Try a word search of the Charter for the term "VETO"; It doesn't exist. Refer below, LH side...
The effect of a Veto arises by the actions of Article 27(3). So far not one of the Foreign Ministers offices I have had responses from can state where Russia's Veto arises from, and that is where we stand, the planets safety is in the hands of bureaucrats that are unable to follow their own rules. I would suggest that more than one person should be making representations for an explanation for the apathy and non compliance with the UN Charter that is being done by our purported representatives. A pox on the lot of them. Apparently they don't understand the constructs of the English language.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x855/screen_shot_2022_10_11_at_11_29_14_am_f99673383a025891f713b6 5a3d301bdedda63b39.png


Article 27
1. Each member of the Security Council shall have one vote.
2. Decisions of the Security Council on procedural matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members.
3. Decisions of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members including the concurring votes of the permanent members; provided that, in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting.




[Flying Binghi]

More on the melted tracks. If the bogies have melted like that and the fire was whipping underneath the bridge I would think that structure is dubious at the least. From about 27 secs you can see distortion on the bridge steels between both tracks.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618?cxt=HHwWhMDUsYvv1esrAAAA

Watching the videos I wondered why the burn lasted so long. Now looking at the gravel under the rail line I guess it could explain the long burn time.

It looks like the gravel is ‘contained’ under the track via low walls either side of the track.

From living beside a rail line for a time I know that there is a constant need to refresh gravel under the rails. Part of the reason is over time the gravel gets ground down to dust via regular ‘working’ of the gravel from heavy train usage.

When the fuel tanks initially burst a lot of the fuel would not burn but flow to the gravel below. If there is a course gravel layer that contains various layers diminishing sized grains through to dust than I guess that would be a good reservoir for a long lasting burn.

What I don’t know is would the gravel to dust layer, whilst feeding the fire above, also act as an insulator to the concrete below ?

[Dead on Time]

Can rule out this event being caused by a missile, evidence so far points towards non military grade explosives with additives for enhanced thermal effects.
Delivery is either by boat or truck, with the truck being most obvious means, however the explosion epicenter seems to actually be behind the trucks location... which is curious.
In all cases, the device came from Russian controlled territory, and yet it is contended that the Ukrainians did this. We are to assume that Ukraine would not expect putin to go into a "rage" and attack what? the only thing that exists that Russia can hit, which is civilian targets, as they are soft and concentrated, Russia's preferred method of conducting genocide

Perhaps those intrepid Ukrainian farmers from inside russian controlled territory with a fertiliser bomb (anfo) on a tinny?

Would have been an blast and a half if instead of fuel tank railcars beside the explosion site, there had been railway boxcars loaded with ammunition, perhaps those boxcars at the rear of the train on the bridge? Bye bye Kerch railway bridge :D

Dot

[MechEngr]

Typically fuel soaked items don't burn - the heat released from the vapor flame above simply causes the liquid to vaporize, absorbing the heat and limiting the temperature to the boiling point of the liquid. See candle wicks and kerosene lamp wicks for examples. While those do get consumed it's the part of the wick that cannot maintain a flow of fluid that gets burned.

The tracks themselves aren't protected by being soaked in fuel and they would have heated to the flame temperature, both expanding and buckling lengthwise from the heat, but also lowering their strength where the weight of the tankers caused them to buckle.

I'd guess that the underlying structure is fine and that they may have to replace the sleepers (ties) along with the rails, as the concrete ties would not have been effective at storing fuel and gotten over-baked. Gravel and dust aren't great insulators, but the energy required to change the phase of liquid to gas is considerable and puts a limit on how hot the liquid can be.

[Pali]

This is really bad news for Russia. The fire was so hot that steel structures are visibly deformed. If they don't replace segments we may see the same fate like Remagen bridge.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618

[fdr]

Pali: This is really bad news for Russia. The fire was so hot that steel structures are visibly deformed. If they don't replace segments we may see the same fate like Remagen bridge.

Hopefully so, but the damage that counts is below the sleepers and has no6t been clearly shown yet. The beams did a get a bit of blow torching, and hopefully, the droids will dutifully comply with the supreme commanders face saving orders and drive ever heavier loads along the track until the damage becomes apparent.

[DaveReidUK]

This is really bad news for Russia. The fire was so hot that steel structures are visibly deformed. If they don't replace segments we may see the same fate like Remagen bridge.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618

That casts more than a little a bit of doubt about the video the Russians posted yesterday of a train supposedly crossing (or having crossed) the bridge.

[Andrewgr2]

Clearly nothing could have run on the track with the fuel tank cars on it. But the parallel track might be relatively unscathed. I don’t see any obvious damage in the video.

[petit plateau]

That casts more than a little a bit of doubt about the video the Russians posted yesterday of a train supposedly crossing (or having crossed) the bridge.

There are two sets of tracks on the top of the rail bridge. The adjacent set appears to have little or no damage and is what they must have used to run their test train over with. The flim-flam steelwork of the safety railings and so on is obviously going to need replacing at some point, but no huge rush. Another day or so and they will have replaced the fire-damaged rails and any necessary sleepers. I think the fuel fire drained down between the track ballast and straight into overboard drains, i.e. it did not significantly puddle underneath primary structure. There s not good photo evidence to be sure of this, but that is what the limited evidence suggests.

WARNING : Aviation content : It would be nice for Ukraine if something with significant range and the ability to get through the SAM defences were available for them to attack the rail bridge.

[ORAC]

Useful thread with a further link to the original bridge plans. (In Russian) by a contributor towards the end.

https://twitter.com/jjfilson/status/1579693328559665154?s=61&t=_g-D2hrJF2AYk4vIylRakA

[Flying Binghi]

Useful thread with a further link to the original bridge plans. (In Russian) by a contributor towards the end.

Interesting. Looking at the bridge underside photo he posted it would appear the rail bridge is steel support as well.

I can not see the link to the build plans ?

[GeeRam]

Interesting. Looking at the bridge underside photo he posted it would appear the rail bridge is steel support as well.

Yes, they are.
They were fabricated as 65m long (max) sections on Tuzla Island, and then slide into place using incremental launching, at about 45mm per minute.

[ORAC]

Link from the following post.

https://twitter.com/rohnski2s/status/1579760322734612480?s=61&t=Qj-p-GkiQh_35zeodHsGUw


This page has quickie analysis by engineers https://theconversation.com/crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage-192161
.
That page has this link https://archive.org/download/crimean-bridge which has a link to a 242pg PDF of the Kerch design documents and diagrams ... in russian (naturally). It's all engineering geek and russian to me.

[MikeSnow]

Alexander Kots, a Russian journalist and propagandist, claims the explosives used to damage the bridge came from Bulgaria:

https://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=217022

Russian war correspondent: The Crimean bridge bomb was placed In foil pallets In Bulgaria

The explosive used to blow up the Crimean bridge came from Bulgaria and was planted in the goods transported by the truck-bomb in Bulgaria. This is what Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots claims in "Komsomolska Pravda".

According to Kots, two trucks were used in the operation to blow up the Crimean bridge. According to him, the cargo consisted of 22 euro pallets with foil, 9 rolls in each, each pallet weighing about 1 ton. The goods arrived by sea in the Georgian port of Poti from Bulgaria. The order was placed in the name of a citizen of Ukraine. It was then loaded onto a truck with foreign license plates and from Poti the truck traveled to Armenia, where it was cleared at customs under the rules of the customs union.

After that, the truck returned to Georgia again, and from there, through the Verkhniy Lars border crossing, entered the territory of Russia. The end point was the city of Armavir, where the pallets were reloaded into another truck and from there to Crimea. Kots hypothesizes that the blast was somehow embedded in the rolls of foil so that they would not be detected by X-ray examination. "And this was done in Bulgaria, which means that in addition to Ukraine, foreign services could have participated in the organization of this terrorist act."

Kots also published photos of the truck with which the cargo left Bulgaria.

On Sunday, the chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reported to President Vladimir Putin that before exploding on the Crimean bridge, the truck bomb passed through the territories of Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, North Ossetia and Krasnodar.

The tractor itself with the cargo could not have been in Bulgaria, because the tractor is of the "conventional" type, of the American type with an engine in front of the cab, while in Europe tractors move with a cab above the engine.

The "conventional" ones cannot be driven on the territory of the EU, because with the semi-trailer they exceed the maximum length of 17.60 meters. But they move in Georgia and Russia, and according to truck drivers, the normal practice for such courses is for a semi-trailer truck to drive the semi-trailer to Georgia, and there a local will pick it up.

[fdr]

Alexander Kots, a Russian journalist and propagandist, claims the explosives used to damage the bridge came from Bulgaria:

https://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=217022

Wow!

Are these guys gonna do a sequel to this novel?

They know what a charge was rolled in (spoiler, it wasn't aspic, but that would make the story easier to swallow)
They know the nationality of a person who was smart enough to write a Jason Bourne novel, but then gave his passport details? Homer Simpson, you are now redundant...
They know the truck movement down to the second... apparently... yet didn't see fit to inspect the load for nitrates, and cooking foil hid bang? TSA, we have a problem... be on the lookout for rolls of al-foil wrapped around sneaker laces!
So, how did the bomb know when to go off? The journey wasn't built in a day, but apparently burnt like Rome, neatly in the middle of the bridge. Who lit the fuse? on the bomb, painted black, with BOMB written along its side, and with the I DID IT written a hundred times in letters 10' tall, Monty Python would be proud. (...Splitter!")
These guys are really really really good investigators. How did they get that information from the Bulgarians during border closures? they walked there on water? "Dobra Deyn, Da! ve are from FSB, and want our agents passport back, Da? Spasiba!"
The Georgians who just love Putin, after all, he has only attacked them 4.5 times in 30 years, welcome FSB dudes into Georgia to get info on an event that includes using Georgia as an accomplice and threatens yet another attack from their favourite playmate?
Golly.
This is slightly less plausible than the false passport carrying poisoners visiting Salisbury as Salisbury has a world famous clock...:

“Our friends had been suggesting for a long time that we visit this wonderful town,” said a man who identified himself on air as Alexander Petrov."Boshirov said the two had gone to visit Salisbury Cathedral, “famous not just in Europe. but in the whole world. It’s famous for its 123-metre spire, it’s famous for its clock, the first one [of its kind] ever created in the world, which is still working.”While they walked around Salisbury, he added, the two men “maybe approached Skripal’s house, but we didn’t know where it was located”.
The probability that this was FSB and not Ukraine just went through the roof. I'm calling the "liar liar pants on fire" level of probability on the FSB having concocted the attack, and that remarkably would appear to be synchronised with Putin and his plan to attack Ukraine soft targets which appears to have been planned before the attack... temporal worm holes thingy happening. That would suggest that the Army is being set up for an (in)voluntary suicide pact, clearing the decks of at least one of the likely successor teams to Vlad and his munchkins. Vlad is from the dark side, if only because East Germany didn't have mouch wattage in it's lighting when he was a short little desk officer in the exotic backwaters East of the Wall.

Smells like the manure wasn't just used in the bomb... also smells like the same setting for the 1917 revolt, and really, that is justified, Vlad is quite revolting.

"If it sounds too god to be true, it is!"

IMHO.

Bombimg of the bridge was probably FSB. They just showed their periscope and their boat of evidence is as buoyant as the Kursk was.

:ok:

[fdr]

look at the video again... it's riveting stuff.
Wind is from the trucks right, and the fireball and sparklers (additives) are coming from the right and behind the position of the truck,... as they would for a bomb set under the bridge and having a shock dispersed laterally and rising around the span. At that point, the pressure differential will cause an inflow into the area in the lee ops the explosion, and that seems to be observed, but it could be time to go to spec savers... (it is a wake effect at that point, separated flow, boundary layer sort of geeky stuff... )
Look at the on coming cars lights. it is proximate to the truck, having just passed it in the opposite direction, and a bomb apparently from Bulgaria in the truck arranged by the dastardly Ukrainians goes off with enough force to blow the phlegm out of the RH back spans, yet, doesn't muss up the green hair of the wig on the driver of the car that is beside it. Most times, when you have a bang that is big enough to drop a large bridge, it will give a bit of a shockwave and yet, didn't happen here. That may be cuz the bomb wasn't in the truck, despite the story from the FSB, but was under the span. We see the span underside that is on the other side of where the pier was to the detonation, a replay of the July 44 Valkyrie bomb D'oh!.

[Fly-by-Wife]

Bombing of the bridge was probably FSB.

:ok:
Given that there was not much more than 48 hours between the bridge bombing and the "retribution" missile strikes, carefully orchestrated in multiple waves across 4 or more separate launching areas, from Belarus to the Black Sea, it does look suspiciously like a false-flag op to justify lashing out at civilians.

[Redlands]

look at the video again... it's riveting stuff.
The CCTV looks no better even when slowed a little, although the white flash appears to begin prior to the tin foil going poof.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x373/join_0dd4025b91378c4919d6b6c36a7096018088e57e.jpg

[MikeSnow]

The CCTV looks no better even when slowed a little, although the white flash appears to begin prior to the tin foil going poof.

The camera used is not fast enough show anything significant during those 3 frames, other than the position of the vehicles at the moment of the explosion. In particular, the second frame doesn't prove that the flash came from the bottom, or that the vehicles were intact at the time of the flash, as some may think. It's most likely a rolling shutter effect. Meaning the camera sensor scan position was towards the bottom of the sensor at the moment the flash happened, and the top part of the image in the second frame was recorded before the flash.

[Lonewolf_50]

Color me skeptical on the false flag operation.

[Redlands]

@MikeSnow, thanks for the explanation.

[Petit-Lion]

Indeed. Reminds me of some theories about leveling multi-billion dollars worth of real estate to go bombing poppy fields far far away.

[MPN11]

Color me skeptical on the false flag operation.
Concur ... too detrimental to RU operations.

[magyarflyer]

Color me skeptical on the false flag operation.
also can any one comment on the likelihood that a train with fuel containers was parked "accidentally" at the exact site of the conflagration? Is that a coincidence? Looking at the photos last night i could not stop questioning myself why was there a train at the exact spot where the blast occurred.

[Lonewolf_50]

also can any one comment on the likelihood that a train with fuel containers was parked "accidentally" at the exact site of the conflagration? Is that a coincidence? Looking at the photos last night i could not stop questioning myself why was there a train at the exact spot where the blast occurred. What other conspiracy theories are your favorites?
A P-8 attacking the Nordstream pipeline?
No landing on the moon?
9-11 was an inside job?
The word 'coincidence' is built for the fact that things sometimes happen coincidentally.
Warning: Aviation Content Follows!
Battle of Midway is an example of this: the American dive bombers headed out to bomb the Japanese carriers, trying to put them out of action if they could. That the Japanese air wings were refueling and re arming at the time was a lucky break for the American attacks.

[Video Mixdown]

Speaking of unlikely coincidences, anyone else seen this story that's going round?
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russian-judge-linked-top-putin-133300212.html

[20driver]

Railways all have their procedures. I spent a few summers working on the tracks and frequently strings of cars were parked in odd places. It is almost always a pattern as railways run on very rigid schedules.
Given the amount of the time that went into this I am sure the Ukraines had the rail operations dialed in and grabbed an two fer.
The rail bridge is supported on deep metal girders and they have without doubt suffered some serious alteration and not in a good way. In normal times the resistance of the girders would be taking a serious write down at least till some metallurgical testing was done. I know off several cases where tankers burned under overpasses and the span had to be replaced.
I don't think the RU would have done this. Putin hardly needs an excuse to launch missiles and this is very big egg on the face as well as serious potential to disrupt logistics.

[cynicalint]

Speaking of unlikely coincidences, anyone else seen this story that's going round?
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russian-judge-linked-top-putin-133300212.html
Well it makes a change from window diving, involuntary suicide injuries and unenforced toxin ingestion! Plus, there will be no requirement to produce a body.

[Winemaker]

Last week a Russian radio station conducted an interview with an official in Kherson, one of the four regions illegally annexed by Russia (https://news.yahoo.com/putin-ukraine-russia-war-losing-regions-annexed-143855287.html) as part of its invasion of Ukraine.

Like virtually all media in Russia, the station, Radio Rossii, follows an unspoken rule of hewing to the Kremlin’s line about the “special military operation” launched in February going more or less according to plan. That the spetzoperatsiya is a full-blown war, or that the war is going poorly, is a taboo topic within Russia.

Which made what happened next all the more remarkable. In the midst of the interview with the pro-Russian official in Kherson, one of the hosts asked, in a halfway hopeful tone, a question he all but answered: “So the situation is fine?” Only he did not quite get the expected — and required — response.

“The situation is difficult,” the Kherson administrator glumly admitted.

The telephone line went dead. The interview was over. Perhaps a faulty line had been at work, but given how little dissent is tolerated in Russian media outlets, the moment was revealing all the same

Here's an interesting article on Russian media reporting on the war, worth a read IMHO.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russian-media-confronts-new-problem-reality-180231942.html

[meleagertoo]

I continue to be amazed that people are still calling this a truck bomb when the videos available clearly show the only truck in the vicinity a considerable distance past the source of the blast and another video that clearly shows the bow of a fairly fast moving boat appear in exactly - that is EXACTLY - the place and time of the blast.

Failure of the Ukrainian regime to claim this coup is not surprising as there are clearly independant Ukranian partisan groups operating freely within Russia (eg that blast at the Navy warehouse yesterday - unless you believe it was yet another careless smoker...)and not necessarily in contact with or under cntrol of Kiev.

Russia is home to hundreds of thousands of native Ukranians and if they conspire to dusrupt whatever they can disrupt here and there Russia has an additional problem in its midst. Apparently random Air Force basearms stores and Naval warehouse explosions within Russia are unlikely to be unconnected with this crisis. I suspect Ukraine has a useful number of cells or sleeper units ingrained into Russian society and if they can cobble together a boat-bomb or other disruptive device then they will do do - independently.

Bless'em.

[MikeSnow]

I continue to be amazed that people are still calling this a truck bomb when the videos available clearly show the only truck in the vicinity a considerable distance past the source of the blast and another video that clearly shows the bow of a fairly fast moving boat appear in exactly - that is EXACTLY - the place and time of the blast.

While I'm not 100% against the boat hypothesis, and those waves under the bridge before the explosion are one of the first things I've noticed in the videos, there is however no clearly visible boat bow as you claim. Also, there are somewhat similar waves forming even after the explosion near the road bridge, and a lot of waves form near the railway bridge too, both before and after the explosion. The sea was quite rough, so that wave might just be a coincidence. Such waves can easily form naturally around an obstacle, such as those bridge piers.

As for the truck bomb hypothesis, you claim the truck is at a considerable distance past the source of the explosion. Looking at the videos with the damage after the explosion, and comparing them the video of the explosion, the truck is just beginning to climb, and the most damage seems to be in the same area.

I liked the boat hypothesis too initially, but at the moment I think the truck hypothesis is more likely.

[fdr]

What other conspiracy theories are your favorites?
A P-8 attacking the Nordstream pipeline?
No landing on the moon?
9-11 was an inside job?
The word 'coincidence' is built for the fact that things sometimes happen coincidentally.

I would not consider myself to be prone to conspiracy theory, although, come to think of it, still wonder about how a 6.5 x 52 Carcano that two exemplars retain solidity suddenly behave like 5.56 x 45, which was a relatively uncommon round, having entered production 2 years later. Colour me unconvinced on that one.
On moon landings, they were a remarkable achievement then and remain so now.
On Russia and Novichok, Polonium and other whoopsies I go with FSB or GRU involvement as the whim takes the Dear Leaders fancy.
On Kerch, I find it difficult to believe the evidence as presented in 3 days from multiple hostile areas to the Russians is the stretch of imagination. I suspect that there was a D'oh moment that the amount of damage was greater than expected, but I also think it is misdirection as to where the explosion occurred.
The blast effect to the car coming towards the camera need further assessment, but it appears quite inconsistent with a blast centred on the truck trailer, it does not appear to be in a direct line to the blast, and the railing in between does not appear to provide a lot of lee.
If it was the truck, how was it timed for detonation? was this an area on a strategic site with purported high security that didn't jam cell phone signals or disrupt GPS?
Was it conceivable that Russian resistance did the attack? of course, that was suggested early on, but why would they go through an elaborate process that was apparently led with an open trail of breadcrumbs as to whodunnit, and more concerning, howtheydunnit.
Ukraine not admitting responsibility is not evidentiary, but the FSB finding all of the manner by which it was done neatly packaged and published smacks of involvement, and there is no question that such an act has a rallying around the flag effect for Vlad, and the downside only arises from the screwup of the conversion from pounds to kilograms or otherwise, that led to serious damage to the bridge.
I am surprised by the lightweight structure of the bridge, and for spans in an area of geologic instability that was unexpected, but, hey, California didn't do any better with preparations on their roadways for reasonably foreseeable events. Still, the explosion looks to have more theatric intent than rapid deconstruction, and looks like someone is not going to get an Xmas card from Vlad.
Do I believe in conspiracies? Not usually, I have conducted sufficient air accident investigations to be used to stochastic outcomes from improbable events, and tend towards Occam's Razor, that stuff happens (if you wait long enough). Where Russia is concerned, Grigory Potemkin didn't help skeptics to any announcements from "official" sources within the Government. They have a history of happily sacrificing their citizens to make a self serving propaganda point.
I have suggested here and directly to Ukraine that the Kerch bridge needs to be removed, but not much here supports the contention on reflection, that Ukraine did this. Would be happy if they had, but it doesn't sit well at present.
I remain "liar liar" level sceptical that this was Ukraine, as much as I would like to say it was. :}
Looking down the road, to the truck as it climbs the gradient for the first ~2 seconds, at.. what 80KM/hr? 22m/sec...? so it has gone past the start of the gradient by less than 50 mtrs... (150' for USA) look at the image 1 second after the detonation, and look at what is visible. Seems odd to this AAI that there is gallons of smoke n' stuff to the north of the truck, away from the railway, and a lot out to the south as well, yet the area that would be shadowed by a charge set under the span is curiously clear, no smoke, details clearly visible etc.... neat trick for the truck bomb, it was apparently the new blast wave that is in a box trailer of flimsy panel construction, but able to direct the shock wave from a spherical + reflected wave front development. Gotta get hands on that flow modifier trick! :ok:

[MikeSnow]

If it was the truck, how was it timed for detonation? was this an area on a strategic site with purported high security that didn't jam cell phone signals or disrupt GPS?

Assuming it wasn't triggered manually by the driver, then maybe by detecting that it started to climb, perhaps with some combination of accelerometers and gyros? Nose up attitude, positive rate of climb = detonate.

[MechEngr]

Assuming it wasn't triggered manually by the driver, then maybe by detecting that it started to climb, perhaps with some combination of accelerometers and gyros? Nose up attitude, positive rate of climb = detonate.

GLONASS instead of GPS?

[Flying Binghi]

Link from the following post.



This page has quickie analysis by engineers https://theconversation.com/crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage-192161
.
That page has this link https://archive.org/download/crimean-bridge which has a link to a 242pg PDF of the Kerch design documents and diagrams ... in russian (naturally). It's all engineering geek and russian to me.

Via the link:

“…It appears the girders are continuous over the piers, with expansion joints only every four spans. Just like picking up a table cloth in the middle, the massive vertical force due to the blast would pull in the ends of the continuous steel girders, popping them off their supports…”

[Winemaker]

Assuming it wasn't triggered manually by the driver, then maybe by detecting that it started to climb, perhaps with some combination of accelerometers and gyros? Nose up attitude, positive rate of climb = detonate.
Seems to me, with a truck load (allegedly) of explosives, KISS might strongly apply.

[fdr]

Assuming it wasn't triggered manually by the driver, then maybe by detecting that it started to climb, perhaps with some combination of accelerometers and gyros? Nose up attitude, positive rate of climb = detonate.

That would have been pretty dodgy, how many slight rises exist between "Bulgaria" and 100 mtrs west of the rise on the Kerch bridge...?

However, the video gives a pretty good datum point for the truck and timing to the detonation... if the attitude of the truck is looked at, it takes approximately 4 seconds from the change in the vodka level until the detonation, the video down the roadway captures the rear door and roof of the truck, the attitude change is identifiable. From the photos, (still looking for the info in the plans... my Russian is pretty rusty) the change in the road from level to incline happens at the west side of the pier after the large cassion like structure off to the north of the roadway, with the easternmost expansion joint just east of that cassion.

Assuming the truck speed is the national limit of 90Km/Hr (the road limit is 120Km/Hr) as all Russian truckers abide by the law... then the truck is 100mtrs to the west of the point of incline (pier) when the detonation occurs. Unfortunately for the assumption of the blast coming from underneath, that is almost exactly in the center of the scorched area of the bit that was blown downwards... and is the midpoint more or less of the inter-pier distance. That is the gap before the most northerly expansion joint which failed as well. but without obvious scorching.

There are a bunch of unknowns, known, unknown etc... but the main thing is that the truck is going to be around the midpoint of where the explosion was located. If the truck was doing 120, it would be 33mtrs beyond the epicenter... and it would have gone into the drink on the section of road that collapsed from the western expansion joint. There is a possibility that the truck was past the next pier, and went into the water as the bridge collapsed. That arises as there is a difference in the soot that would be around the position that the truck would have got to at the higher speed... and it is of a truck size masking of the sooting... Hmmm. fast truck?

So...

boat or truck?

The truck could be right in the center. The wind was around 16kts steady from the right side... a fireball from below is going to be brought over the same area as is scorched, and as yet we have not seen any of the undersides of the section that collapsed in the V (for Victory).

Either way it is a weak bridge, if the overpressure of the truck delivery method blows the bridge in half between piers, they may want more Meccano next time. If a charge went off between piers from below, the failure, in the end, would still result in a collapse at or near the midpoint; the presence of the truck reasonably at the epicenter points to the truck. That still leaves a lot of questions unanswered, and the FSB is still a high-probability actor. If FSB, the outcome is probably a little more mayhem than desired, have any new FSB dudes gone land diving?

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1008x630/kerch_1207b55b7e4151967f31dae77c3a73f9d6893420.png

[soarbum]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/779x540/feyebihwaaa221c_927ed7aff19f7065c68578cb85138114382ad10e.png

[MikeSnow]

I think I know the reason so many people claim the explosion occured way behind the suspected truck: the CCTV camera filming from behind the suspected truck has a quite narrow field of view, making the part of the bridge that climbs look much steeper than it actually is (lens compression). For the same reason, the preceding flat segment looks shorter than it actually is. If you then look at other footage of the aftermath, the damaged segment doesn't seem as steep, so it's easy to misidentify it in the explosion video.

Looking at satellite images, the part that climbs towards the top segment is over 1000 meters long and consists of 4 segments, with expansion joints between them. Those 4 climbing segments are preceded by flat and level segments. I labeled 5 relevant segments of the bridge visible in the explosion video over a satellite image (another two preceding segments are actually visible in the explosion video, but I didn't include them to keep things simpler):

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1741x1927/kerch_labeled_71d7b5d2d5df92aad54be360f80d23732571d16e.jpg

A - 260 meters, last flat and level segment before the climb, not damaged; the surviving truck was probably on this segment at the time of the explosion;
B - 260 meters, first climb segment; starts flat then slowly pitches up; this was the segment destroyed by the blast;
C - 260 meters, second climb segment, flat, not damaged;
D - 260 meters, third climb segment, flat, not damaged;
E - 320 meters, fourth climb segment, begins to level off, not damaged;

The CCTV camera is probably at least 500 meters further back behind those 5 segments. To give you an idea of how much the field of view effect can fool you, I'll include a dash-cam video of crossing the bridge:

https://youtu.be/rAdPwAT5Ntg?t=635

In this video, at 10:58 we reach the beginning of segment A, on which the surviving truck stopped. At 11:09 we see the beginning of the destroyed segment, B. At around 11:16 we reach the most likely point for the explosion, based on the scorching on the opposite lanes. At 11:20 we can see the beginning of segment C, which survived. At 11:31 segment D begins. At 11:42 the final climb segment, E, begins. That segment slowly starts to level off, and we reach its end and the beginning of the top segment at 11:56.

[Winemaker]

I think I know the reason so many people claim the explosion occured way behind the suspected truck: the CCTV camera filming from behind the suspected truck has a quite narrow field of view, making the part of the bridge that climbs look much steeper than it actually is (lens compression). For the same reason, the preceding flat segment looks shorter than it actually is. If you then look at other footage of the aftermath, the damaged segment doesn't seem as steep, so it's easy to misidentify it in the explosion video.

Looking at satellite images, the part that climbs towards the top segment is over 1000 meters long and consists of 4 segments, with expansion joints between them. Those 4 climbing segments are preceded by flat and level segments. I labeled 5 relevant segments of the bridge visible in the explosion video over a satellite image (another two preceding segments are actually visible in the explosion video, but I didn't include them to keep things simpler)

A - 260 meters, last flat and level segment before the climb, not damaged; the surviving truck was probably on this segment at the time of the explosion;
B - 260 meters, first climb segment; starts flat then slowly pitches up; this was the segment destroyed by the blast;
C - 260 meters, second climb segment, flat, not damaged;
D - 260 meters, third climb segment, flat, not damaged;
E - 320 meters, fourth climb segment, begins to level off, not damaged;

The CCTV camera is probably at least 500 meters further back behind those 5 segments. To give you an idea of how much the field of view effect can fool you, I'll include a dash-cam video of crossing the bridge:

https://youtu.be/rAdPwAT5Ntg?t=635

In this video, at 10:58 we reach the beginning of segment A, on which the surviving truck stopped. At 11:09 we see the beginning of the destroyed segment, B. At around 11:16 we reach the most likely point for the explosion, based on the scorching on the opposite lanes. At 11:20 we can see the beginning of segment C, which survived. At 11:31 segment D begins. At 11:42 the final climb segment, E, begins. That segment slowly starts to level off, and we reach its end and the beginning of the top segment at 11:56.
And the truck driver is claimed to survive?

[MikeSnow]

Who claims that?

[fdr]

Who claims that?

The truck owner is alive. The driver is the owners uncle, and was last reported missing. Both were Russians.

[Andy_S]

I don't think the RU would have done this. Putin hardly needs an excuse to launch missiles......

Exactly this.

Quite apart from the fact I can't see him trying to destroy a powerful symbol of Russian dominance in the region, if he really needed a pretext for 'retaliatory' missile strikes there are plenty of easier targets less crucial to Russian logistics.

[pasta]

Assuming it wasn't triggered manually by the driver, then maybe by detecting that it started to climb, perhaps with some combination of accelerometers and gyros? Nose up attitude, positive rate of climb = detonate.
If it was a truck bomb (not that I personally think it was) you don't need a complicated navigation- or inertial-based trigger system, nor do you need a complicit suicide bomber, you just need someone following behind, at a safe distance, with a remote control.

[fdr]

Exactly this.

Quite apart from the fact I can't see him trying to destroy a powerful symbol of Russian dominance in the region, if he really needed a pretext for 'retaliatory' missile strikes there are plenty of easier targets less crucial to Russian logistics.

It does appear paradoxical, however, the guys purportedly wrapped the IED explosive with foil to "make it undetectable"??? Doesn't take much to increase the shock formation (don't put crackers in your hand...) The bridge also appears to be much more tender as a design than one would expect. That is the upside of the exercise there, this bridge can be dropped basically at will with a little bit of planning.

My guess remains that it wasn't the Ukrainians, it was likely the FSB and someone is looking at their shoes while being berated by his superior for being a klutz for being a bit enthusiastic in the amount of pyrotechnics. To make a fashion statement, Ukraine would have been somewhat more pointed literally, if they did this, by simultaneously taking out the primary MSRs out over by Zaporizhia Oblast. How did the FSB find the name of a "Ukrainian" ordering explosives in a NATO country, (one with EU/Shenghen bans against Russia), that are wrapped rat cunningly in tinfoil, and that gets sent undetected to Georgia, North Ossetia, Krasnodar, and onwards towards Crimea. That's... 1,2,3,4,5 security/customs control points... and in the middle of a Special Yada Yada no less. And it gets through the crack troops at the final security checkpoint who have no concern with fertiliser, nitrates etc... And the transit time for this exercise is.... what? 3 hours, 3 months? what is the time to get stuff between Bulgaria and Georgia, how do you get Georgians to play a part? they remember Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and the Russian Federations part in the obscenities that occurred there. So it is done with a cell phone remote, which has a year long battery life, and good cell reception, (its not with my service providers then).

And to time it, the team follow the truck through Russian territory, and from behind wait until it is on a desirable bit of the roadway, and of course, they have to be behind it, and are going to be caught in the traffic jam from the outcome of their handiwork.

If it involved any other country than Russia, I would be less suspicious, but the truth is the word truth doesn't hold a meaning in Russia, currently or historically.

When Abkhaz entered my house, they took me and my seven year old son outside. After forcing us to kneel, they took my son and shot him right in front of me. After they grabbed me by hair and took me to the nearby well. An Abkhaz soldier forced me to look down that well; there I saw three younger man and couple of elderly woman who were standing soaking in water naked. They were screaming and crying while Abkhaz were dumping dead corpses on them. After that, they threw a grenade there and placed more people inside. I was forced again to kneel in front of the dead corpses. One of the soldiers took his knife and took the eye out from one of the dead near me. Then he started to rub my lips and face with that decapitated eye. I could not take it any longer and fainted. They left me there in a pile of corpses. Chervonnaia, Svetlana Mikhailovna. Conflict in the Caucasus: Georgia, Abkhazia, and the Russian Shadow. p 87, Fall of Gagra.



[rattman]

Various sources like Meduza are reporting that russia has arrested 8 terrorists patsy's 5 russian and 3 ukrainian / armenians

[fdr]

Various sources like Meduza are reporting that russia has arrested 8 terrorists patsy's 5 russian and 3 ukrainian / armenians

that's their haul for conscripts? "Wanted 300,000 able patriots 8 locals in wheelchairs, and with good life insurance (optional), Must have heart beat preferred. Apply 2 Bolshaya Lubyanka Street, Moscow".

[golfbananajam]

GLONASS instead of GPS?

Unless I'm missing something (quite likely), GLONASS is GPS.

[NutLoose]

Yes, but often referred to differently, GPS is the "Western system" the other is the not so good Russian system, hence a lot of the in Russian cockpit shots you see tend to have Garmins and the like stuck to the panel

[Andrewgr2]

Yes, but often referred to differently, GPS is the "Western system" the other is the not so good Russian system, hence a lot of the in Russian cockpit shots you see tend to have Garmins and the like stuck to the panel

The global abbreviation for such systems is GNSS - global navigation satellite systems. GPS and GLONASS are examples. There are others including the European system Galileo. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_navigation for more!

[Wokkafans]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580225856504414208?s=20&t=nbyj-ZW0aNkVthw8blvhbw


https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580225856504414208?s=20&t=nbyj-ZW0aNkVthw8blvhbw

[Wokkafans]

According to Russian-appointed head of Crimea, waiting at the ferry crossing in Crimea takes about 3-4 days. And there are about 900 trucks in line at the moment.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580230919306502151?s=20&t=nbyj-ZW0aNkVthw8blvhbw

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580230919306502151?s=20&t=nbyj-ZW0aNkVthw8blvhbw

[pasta]

Hmmm, that does lend a bit more credence to the truck bomb theory.

[HOVIS]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-fsb-arrests-eight-crimea-bridge-blast-2022-10-12/
Report states the total package, exosives, pallets, packing etc was nearly 23 tonnes!

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580225856504414208?s=61&t=gaPElabTN0mXjZJaJsECQQ


New photos of Crimean bridge were published. It’s visible that the second road is a bit wobbly

[NutLoose]

Looks like they are trying to lift a span back on the bridge.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1580184795946315777?cxt=HHwWgsDTneTs-O0rAAAA

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1580184795946315777?cxt=HHwWgsDTneTs-O0rAAAA

[NutLoose]

Kerch bridge new footage. At 18 seconds is the surviving lane sitting on that? It looks like the rebar has cracked the concrete.., and they are driving over that? In the pictures below the film look at the sag in the second roadway.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1580229890560794631?cxt=HHwWjoClpdGtje4rAAAA

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1580229890560794631?cxt=HHwWjoClpdGtje4rAAAA

under the surviving roadway?


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x875/image_e48a75b61ad2db5ce2534b4f65b7d3b65aa039ff.jpeg


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1280x960/image_c4585c2ae2058385e3dbd6ee2662a96344b5f821.jpeg

[WB627]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-fsb-arrests-eight-crimea-bridge-blast-2022-10-12/
Report states the total package, exosives, pallets, packing etc was nearly 23 tonnes!

I'm no expert in this field, but I think 23 tonnes of anfo would have done a lot more damage than that.

The Baltic Exchange in London, anfo bomb was 1 tonne in a Transit van, look at the damage that did. I've seen with my own eyes the crater from a mere 1,000lb RAF air dropped dumb bomb, all be it military grade explosives and I realy don't think the Kerch bridge was hit with anything close to 23 tonnes.

However, if it was the FSB, why use anfo if they were going to blame it on Ukraine? If it was Ukraine why use anfo? I'm sure they both have access to military grade explosives. My money is now on dissidents/insurgents, but from which side, is any ones guess.

If it was the FSB, I would be expecting a few of them to be exiting the Kremlin via the sixth floor :uhoh:

[NutLoose]

So the Russian X-ray of the bomb truck and the images of it, are totally different vehicles

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1580117645101133824

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1580117645101133824

[MikeSnow]

So the Russian X-ray of the bomb truck and the images of it, are totally different vehicles
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1580117645101133824

Russia claims the cargo has been unloaded then reloaded between several trucks before reaching the bridge. According to them, the images have been taken at the bridge, and the X-ray at a border crossing, when the cargo was in another truck.

And the FSB's latest story claims an even longer route from the cargo: Odessa Ukraine, Ruse Bulgaria, Poti Georgia, Armenia, back to Georgia, then Russia. I'm actually surprised they didn't mention Romania, as Ruse is near a border crossing between Bulgaria and Romania.

The FSB report, according to RIA Novosti:


The FSB's full statement on the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge:

▪️ the organizer was the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, its head Kirill Budanov, employees and agents

▪️ the bomb was camouflaged in rolls with construction polyethylene film on 22 pallets with a total weight of 22.77 tons and in early August was sent from the port of Odessa to the Bulgarian Ruse under contract No. 02/08/2022 between Translogistic UA LLC (Kyiv) and Baltex Capital S.A. (Ruse)

▪️ Ukrainian citizens Mikhail Vladimirovich Tsyurkalo (born in 1975), Denis Olegovich Kovach (1979) and Roman Ivanovich Solomko (1971), Georgian citizens Sandro Inosaridze and a broker named Levan and Armenian citizen Artur Terchanyan (1985) were involved in the organization of cargo transportation from Bulgaria to the port of Poti (Georgia), and then to Armenia.

▪️ from September 29 to October 3 in Yerevan in the terminal "Transalliance" the cargo was cleared according to the rules of the EAEU, the documents were replaced, after which its sender was already LLC "GU AR JI GROUP" (Armenia, Alaverdi), and the recipient was LLC "Leader" (Moscow)

▪️ on October 4, the cargo crossed the Russian-Georgian border through The Upper Lars on a DAF truck registered in Georgia and on October 6 was delivered and unloaded at the wholesale base of Armavir in the Krasnodar Territory

▪️ On October 7, with the assistance of Solomko, a citizen of Ukraine Vladimir Vasilyevich Zlob (1987) and 5 other established citizens of Russia, the documents for the cargo were again changed, the sender was indicated as LLC "TEK-34" (Ulyanovsk), and the recipient was a non-existent company in the Crimea

▪️ on the same day, the pallets were loaded into the truck of Russian citizen Mahir Yusubov (1971), who left for Simferopol, and on October 8 at 06.03, while following the Crimean bridge, an explosion was carried out

▪️ control over the movement of cargo along the entire route and contacts with the participants of the criminal scheme were carried out by an employee of the DIU of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, posing as Ivan Ivanovich, who used for coordination both a virtual anonymous number purchased on the Internet and registered in the name of a citizen of Ukraine Sergey Vladimirovich Andreychenko (1988) from Kremenchug

▪️ 5 citizens of Russia, 3 citizens of Ukraine and Armenia who participated in the preparation of the crime were detained

▪️ the investigation continues, all organizers and accomplices, including foreigners, will be brought to justice in accordance with Russian law

[WB627]

The FSB's full statement on the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge:

▪️the organizer was the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, its head Kirill Budanov, employees and agents

▪️ the bomb was camouflaged in rolls with construction polyethylene film on 22 pallets with a total weight of 22.77 tons and in early August was sent from the port of Odessa to the Bulgarian Ruse under contract No. 02/08/2022 between Translogistic UA LLC (Kyiv) and Baltex Capital S.A. (Ruse)

▪️ Ukrainian citizens Mikhail Vladimirovich Tsyurkalo (born in 1975), Denis Olegovich Kovach (1979) and Roman Ivanovich Solomko (1971), Georgian citizens Sandro Inosaridze and a broker named Levan and Armenian citizen Artur Terchanyan (1985) were involved in the organization of cargo transportation from Bulgaria to the port of Poti (Georgia), and then to Armenia.

▪️ from September 29 to October 3 in Yerevan in the terminal "Transalliance" the cargo was cleared according to the rules of the EAEU, the documents were replaced, after which its sender was already LLC "GU AR JI GROUP" (Armenia, Alaverdi), and the recipient was LLC "Leader" (Moscow)

▪️ on October 4, the cargo crossed the Russian-Georgian border through The Upper Lars on a DAF truck registered in Georgia and on October 6 was delivered and unloaded at the wholesale base of Armavir in the Krasnodar Territory

▪️ On October 7, with the assistance of Solomko, a citizen of Ukraine Vladimir Vasilyevich Zlob (1987) and 5 other established citizens of Russia, the documents for the cargo were again changed, the sender was indicated as LLC "TEK-34" (Ulyanovsk), and the recipient was a non-existent company in the Crimea

▪️ on the same day, the pallets were loaded into the truck of Russian citizen Mahir Yusubov (1971), who left for Simferopol, and on October 8 at 06.03, while following the Crimean bridge, an explosion was carried out

▪️ control over the movement of cargo along the entire route and contacts with the participants of the criminal scheme were carried out by an employee of the DIU of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, posing as Ivan Ivanovich, who used for coordination both a virtual anonymous number purchased on the Internet and registered in the name of a citizen of Ukraine Sergey Vladimirovich Andreychenko (1988) from Kremenchug

▪️ 5 citizens of Russia, 3 citizens of Ukraine and Armenia who participated in the preparation of the crime were detained

▪️ the investigation continues, all organizers and accomplices, including foreigners, will be brought to justice in accordance with Russian law

Well they would say that, wouldn't they :confused:. Only way they have of avoiding a trip to the Gulag, or out of a sixth floor window, if they either did it or failed to stop it.

How do you know when a Russian politician or official is lying?
You can see their lips move

[DaveReidUK]

Reportedly 800+ trucks queueing for the Kerch ferry. Makes you wonder why they don't just use the bridge.

On second thoughts, no it doesn't ...

[MikeSnow]

Well they would say that, wouldn't they :confused:. Only way they have of avoiding a trip to the Gulag, or out of a sixth floor window, if they either did it or failed to stop it.

How do you know when a Russian politician or official is lying?
You can see their lips move



You are probably right, the whole story sounds like an excuse. And, after all the blatant lies they kept spewing over the years, including stuff like "Russia has never attacked anyone", I don't trust anything coming from their side. It's like they are trying to say: "Look, the cargo passed through all these border crossings, and nobody could detect the explosives. So, our border check was not poorly done, it's just that the explosives were really well hidden.".

[NutLoose]

It does make you wonder why on earth would you transport a bomb across so many borders and load it on so many different vehicles, one you are not assured it will not be detected at each border and two you are not assured it would all be shipped / packed together, or even on the same truck.

[4mastacker]

If that bridge is considered to be a main supply route between Russia and Occupied Crimea/ Ukraine, I would have expected to have seen a lot more logistics traffic supporting Russia's forces than there was at the time of the explosion.

[fdr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580225856504414208?s=20&t=nbyj-ZW0aNkVthw8blvhbw

Dayglo vests seem to be inappropriate. Lifejackets would be more help.

[fdr]

Well they would say that, wouldn't they :confused:. Only way they have of avoiding a trip to the Gulag, or out of a sixth floor window, if they either did it or failed to stop it.

How do you know when a Russian politician or official is lying?
You can see their lips move










It was almost believable until they got to the tell, the giveaway. The article states the term "Russian Law". Aha! No such thing. :}

[rattman]

It does make you wonder why on earth would you transport a bomb across so many borders and load it on so many different vehicles, one you are not assured it will not be detected at each border and two you are not assured it would all be shipped / packed together, or even on the same truck.

Christo (Bellingcat) has posted the FSB brief on it, (note he just copied it makes not statements about the a factual correctness of it) The post might answer some questions

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1580303771208339456.html

[fdr]

I'm no expert in this field, but I think 23 tonnes of anfo would have done a lot more damage than that.

The Baltic Exchange in London, anfo bomb was 1 tonne in a Transit van, look at the damage that did. I've seen with my own eyes the crater from a mere 1,000lb RAF air dropped dumb bomb, all be it military grade explosives and I realy don't think the Kerch bridge was hit with anything close to 23 tonnes.

However, if it was the FSB, why use anfo if they were going to blame it on Ukraine? If it was Ukraine why use anfo? I'm sure they both have access to military grade explosives. My money is now on dissidents/insurgents, but from which side, is any ones guess.

If it was the FSB, I would be expecting a few of them to be exiting the Kremlin via the sixth floor :uhoh:

23 Tons, 230 Tons, 2.3 Tons, what's in a decimal point? (Oklahoma City A.P. Murray building was 3.2 T of ANFO... )
72 hours to have the whole paper trail for the event from the FSB. Across two countries that they have entry restrictions to, due to their aggression... Pink panther efficiency!
The photos of the truck are a different truck to the photos of the X-rayed Truck, and not even close. About as good as FSB passports and service IDs have been. They are really slipping. Ooops.
The X-Ray shows the rat cunningly hidden load!. on the trailer. The trailer is not the same trailer as in the photo immediately before the explosion. Ooops.

So the FSB has the capability to go and do a detailed trace of the movements of a trailer, over what, a 3-4 week period, in the middle of a war of their making, in countries that are opposed to their actions, one being a NATO member, and the other wanting to be... A third country that is being provided assistance by NATO members against the latest attacks against their borders...

The differences in the truck trailer are an issue, as then the question is, when that occurred (apparently the theory of the FSB) how was the fact that the load was a bunch of bombs with bomb paraphernalia hidden from the truck owner, or trailer owner? How did it get fuzed? How did they time a detonation of an unsuspecting driver's trailer load to have it happen anywhere on the causeway or bridge area? This isn't German rail (pre latest sabotage... or Swiss precision, it's Russia... in a time of unease... If an external observer is running around with a phone, to hit "send", how do they loiter on the bridge approaches long enough to meet up with the truck after it has concluded it's random timeline through security? If it is a vehicle behind the truck, the same issue arises. Clock and remote triggering seem implausible, and it doesn't seem to fit that the uncle was a party to a truck bombing.

Some of the pier concrete spalling needs some close examination, it doesn't look like explosive damage, and it is in an odd place. Not certain that it is indicating where the detonation occurred at all, but doesn't look like preexisting damage.

The truck tyres don't seem to be suggesting 23 Tons of charge, nor does the X ray of the rat cunning trailer load... Overloaded tyres look more like this:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/794x635/screen_shot_2022_10_13_at_10_19_12_am_a7bc7518e9fb1f187c2a9c 39b51f773bfe9bb241.png

[rattman]

The differences in the truck trailer are an issue, as then the question is, when that occurred (apparently the theory of the FSB)



The Xray was from when it crossed into georgia I believe it was then swapped to another truck, that truck wasn't xrayed at the bridge entrance, because reasons and went boom on the bridge.

that according to the a FSB dossier

[MechEngr]

In the Nutloose post in https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/649290-kerch-bridge-thread-10.html#post11312403 one can see the bent guardrail supports along the edge nearest to the still-standing span essentially pointing away from what I expect was the center of the blast. They also point to about where the fallen span got creased.

Those supports would have been protected from that damage if the bomb was below the bridge deck.

Recall that Mathias Rust got to Moscow in a small plane - never underestimate the inability of a security force to imagine something happening. Look at what was lost when a few guys with box cutters got past airport security because the FAA failed to understand that a hijacker could be an educated pilot and not require the flight crew to remain alive. Security is better after the fact at looking at cameras and records later to unravel the problem.

[Redlands]

Tractor unit was owner/driver rig who tendered/accepted a bid/price (guarantee of getting the job?) to deliver from Armavir to Simferopol, likely he also owned the trailer used. No sign of the trailer having a tail lift so pallets presumerably loaded by fork lift at Armavir and the drivers of both truck and forklift (if used) could well have been blisfully unaware of contents other than was written on the paperwork. Cell phone GPS is simple enough when reaching set coords, assumig a signal and battery life.

Pure speculation on my part however and no doubt those who do know won't be saying.

[Winemaker]

Another issue is how the pallets were fused together. There were supposedly 19 (?) pallets; to detonate them at the same time they would need to be connected with either electrical detonator wiring or primacord, unless it was thought a single detonation would trigger the others. If the pallets were reloaded to another trailer after sitting in a warehouse someone would have to connect them. According to the above FSB report they were loaded by the warehouse lifts into the final trailer. Did the driver stop somewhere and string them together? Seems a bit of a skilled thing. And, of course, how were they triggered.

[cynicalint]

Russians are keeping quiet about the real reason. Aliens have used a low powered directional laser from low orbit aimed at the Russian judge, but got the power settings slightly wrong.

[fdr]

Christo (Bellingcat) has posted the FSB brief on it, (note he just copied it makes not statements about the a factual correctness of it) The post might answer some questions

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1580303771208339456.html


The Bellingcat link is interesting.

27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.


"using the warehouse's mechanical loader".

So the load that is the apparent cause of the Kerch bridge issue was moved from one trailer, to another. 23 Tons, Good effort. The pallets in the photo are EU standard, so they would be picked up by forklifts... not all at once, so the pallet as explosives are separate, they are not all wired together according to the info provided. The whole load is supposed to be sympathetic detonations? All at once?

The schedule now suggests the timing of this was essentially arranged back in August when schemed up. It doesn't indicate means that the load was then interfered with in order to provide a triggering device, but 2 months later, it gets to blow up. Maybe.

This load was loaded, and unloaded multiple times, and the fact that it was nitrate rich, or that there were devices attached to (presumably) various parts was not noted? It was reloaded on the day before the blast, in the presence of the driver that didn't survive the blast, and he didn't note anything unusual?

This event as described arises from the required failure of multiple border crossing screenings, of multiple handling of individual charges without detection, and some means to then set it off down track at an unknown date/time. Maybe. The locals need to revisit their processes, as they don't work if this the means by which this happened.

Still impressed that the FSB got all of this info together in the period of time since discovery and exposé.

By this story, there are disconnects that occur at various locations, but the final one is... what was loaded onto the truck at the last location? An inventory would need to be taken and the documents traced through to source to confirm that the load was indeed related to what had transpired previously. Why would it be assumed that the FSB, who have a history of messing about in other peoples rice bowls, not have controlled this whole event? There is no part of this so far that could not be done by the FSB, and as indicated, the damage and the story doesn't sit easily together.

How many companies do the FSB have in the same countries?
What evidence is there that the same load actually was explosives from the start to the finish as described.

It is reasonable to assume that if this was a truck bomb, then the last truck in this story did pick up something and proceed to the bridge. That is, there is a likely train of events from Armavir to Kerch, yet even then there is a period where the vehicle was able to be accessed, although that is unlikely. There is a fair chance that the load from Armavir to Kerch was explosive. If the FSB was involved, and are doing the investigation, there is no confirmation that anything from Ukraine-Moldova-Bulgaria-Georgia-Armenia-Georgia-North Ossetia-Russia to Armavir is not of FSB obfuscation, involving props. What was picked up in Armavir, as far as evidence that excludes any involvement by FSB?

I'm conflicted on this, as I don't think that Ukraine would not have justification for any of this, however it is a misstep in part that is not characteristic of Ukraine to date, but which is the hallmark of Russia. Any explanation that occurs that involves Russian investigation is suspect, there has not been many occasions where Russia will act in a disruptive manner.

Recall back to why Russia went into Afghanistan. This whole event at the bridge is reminiscent of a re-run of the events immediately preceding the "help" from the USSR to Afghanistan, that started at the hands of Russian largesse.

About the only thing that is certain is that the bridge needs some maintenance work done.

[Flying Binghi]

……

…Unfortunately for the assumption of the blast coming from underneath, that is almost exactly in the center of the scorched area of the bit that was blown downwards... and is the midpoint more or less of the inter-pier distance. That is the gap before the most northerly expansion joint which failed as well. but without obvious scorching.

There are a bunch of unknowns, known, unknown etc... but the main thing is that the truck is going to be around the midpoint of where the explosion was located. If the truck was doing 120, it would be 33mtrs beyond the epicenter... and it would have gone into the drink on the section of road that collapsed from the western expansion joint. There is a possibility that the truck was past the next pier, and went into the water as the bridge collapsed. That arises as there is a difference in the soot that would be around the position that the truck would have got to at the higher speed... and it is of a truck size masking of the sooting...

…

…The truck could be right in the center. The wind was around 16kts steady from the right side... a fireball from below is going to be brought over the same area as is scorched, and as yet we have not seen any of the undersides of the section that collapsed in the V (for Victory).


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1008x630/kerch_1207b55b7e4151967f31dae77c3a73f9d6893420.png


Yep. The blast ‘shadows’ look to be telling a story. As to the ghosts in the dark areas they could well be from the helicopter water bombers or a fire fighting boat water gun washing the areas. Or there could be a shadow from the prime mover ?

[fdr]

Yep. The blast ‘shadows’ look to be telling a story. As to the ghosts in the dark areas they could well be from the helicopter water bombers or a fire fighting boat water gun washing the areas. Or there could be a shadow from the prime mover ?

If it is, then it is in the wrong spot, there is little doubt that the epicentre of the detonation was near the centre of the two piers before the "shadow", that is on the span section that collapsed by being pulled back off it's bearings, IMHO. Could be washing? maybe. Doubt that it would come off without a bit of elbow grease, and it hasn't anywhere else. The resolution of the images is pretty lousy, Pity the guys on the ground doing the inspection are as likely as not to be part of the event.

[Flying Binghi]

If it is, then it is in the wrong spot, there is little doubt that the epicentre of the detonation was near the centre of the two piers before the "shadow", that is on the span section that collapsed by being pulled back off it's bearings, IMHO. Could be washing? maybe. Doubt that it would come off without a bit of elbow grease, and it hasn't anywhere else. The resolution of the images is pretty lousy, Pity the guys on the ground doing the inspection are as likely as not to be part of the event.

I could have termed it better. I don’t mean deliberate washing of a particular area. More of an effect of either a water gun or helicopter drop bucket not being on target and inadvertently ‘washing’ the blast area thus causing what could be seen as a ghosting effect in the blast blackened area.

Re the prime mover ghosting possibility. I’m thinking it would likely be ahead of the actual placement of the truck trailer combo. Entirely conjecture on my part though in keeping with the spirit of this thread..:)

[fdr]

Re the prime mover ghosting possibility. I’m thinking it would likely be ahead of the actual placement of the truck trailer combo. Entirely conjecture on my part though in keeping with the spirit of this thread..:)

If they wanted facts, they wouldn't have called it a Rumour network! :}

Overall, this is an interesting situation, and all possibilities are on the table on all matters. This is a matter that affects our professional community, civil and military, and more importantly, it is our planet. Collectively we haven't been held to nuclear ransom for some time, it was unpleasant and expensive last time, apparently Vlad slept through the interesting bits, including how that ended up for his brand.

Anything that has a contact anywhere near Vlad I would have a natural skepticism in, their history is replete with misbehaving, and obfuscation. Any document that has Russian fingerprints on it is naturally suspect, including their word of honour which frequently has not survived the time it takes for the ink to dry on the paper.

In other news, Iran seems to be getting asked to assist Russia with missiles to attack civil population in Ukraine. That should be a high point in their global standing, the same day the UN spoke with as close to unanimity as it ever does on the matter. Iran's response will be interesting to see, they have no natural love for Putin. They may be wanting some of their money back for their tanks and planes supplied by Russia.

[NutLoose]

Saying changed trucks etc might well have simply been the dropped of trailer, picked up by another company as opposed to unloading / reloading. The trailer unit may have been registered to the fictitious company it was being delivered too. DHL have loads of none DHL marked tractor units from multiple countries picking up DHL marked trailers at EGNX.

[fdr]

Saying changed trucks etc might well have simply been the dropped of trailer, picked up by another company as opposed to unloading / reloading. The trailer unit may have been registered to the fictitious company it was being delivered too. DHL have loads of none DHL marked tractor units from multiple countries picking up DHL marked trailers at EGNX.

That would have supported a prepared device, however, the story as related by the authorities... FSB etc, is that the load was transferred at Armavir, from one trailer to another. At that point, which is the last major staging of the load, the load would need to be prepared as a device.

[MFC_Fly]

and the document number above the serial number: 19910824-00026 That has all the hallmarks of being a Russian version of the EU Emsho, and that is the date of birth, of the girl from Moscow.... :}
and the same expiry date...
and the same signature...
If this came from Russia, then they really are taking the mickey out of Putin. I presume that it is so bad that it is a meme from someone running along the same line of the credibility and competency of the FSB.

Awwww. C'mon! the Russians know the name and address of the driver of the truck at least, that was given to the Russians at the security checkpoint when the Russians inspected the truck and found it suitable for task er, ooops, not holding excess Vodka/contraband etc. By water or by land, this attack involved Russians either independent or in concert with Ukrainians.

Of course, Russia hasn't made an objection as yet to someone destroying Ukrainian property whilst under the care of the bare bear. In fact, come to think of it, Ukraine should bill Russia for the damage done to the illegally erected structure built on Ukrainian land, and for the demolition of it without an approval to demolish or remove the illegally built structure. I known my council would be over us like a rash for doing what the Russians have done.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x343/screen_shot_2022_10_10_at_10_11_08_am_2fe05fe091fb4f226f35da 45c42273299f6c4817.png
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x357/screen_shot_2022_10_10_at_10_11_27_am_9d1c1f017b83e48b7f86e1 f6c0143c5e1903e2e2.png
Not to mention that the font is different - very clear with the 6 and 9...

[NutLoose]

Film of the on going repairs, I wonder if they are digging up the road surface near the floating crane not for repairs but to reduce the weight for lifting it?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1580812616120750081

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1580812616120750081

[Beamr]

Apparently the damages are much more severe than what was initially stated by the russkies as they are anticipating to have it repaired by July. Their initial comment was that it would've been back in use the same day.

This'll add to the russian logistic nightmare very effectively as all the heavy stuff needs to be delivered by ferry.

​​​MOSCOW, Oct 14 Crimea bridge repairs to be finished by July 2023 - Russian government document
Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/crimea-bridge-repairs-be-finished-by-july-2023-russian-government-document-2022-10-14/

[NutLoose]

Damaged section of the rail bridge at 1:26 and it looks bad.

https://twitter.com/MorCam_USA/status/1580877465039540225

https://twitter.com/MorCam_USA/status/1580877465039540225

[NutLoose]

Not to mention that the font is different - very clear with the 6 and 9...

Look at his hair either side of his mouth, you can see her hair, the section of the womans hair that is level with the centre of her lips shows on the side of his head , neither of which correspond to his rough wavy haircut , so his picture has been superimposed over the top of hers and hence the stamp does not cover his face.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x343/image_ed61b0c164ad9615774b2e33b4e28ecd73b55638.png


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1247x357/screen_shot_2022_10_10_at_10_11_27_am_9d1c1f017b83e48b7f86e1 f6c0143c5e1903e2e2_9a6a75ec45cf1c9c144755e502c871aff63e6cc6. png

[pasta]

Apparently the damages are much more severe than what was initially stated by the russkies as they are anticipating to have it repaired by July.
Hopefully Ukraine will be in a position to drop it with conventional demolition charges by then.

[meleagertoo]

Damaged section of the rail bridge at 1:26 and it looks bad.



https://twitter.com/MorCam_USA/status/1580877465039540225

But not bad enough to stop a train of (likley empty) tanker cars to cross it.

[NutLoose]

Think they are using the far track?

[fdr]

But not bad enough to stop a train of (likley empty) tanker cars to cross it.

"empty", as in the Russian pledges with treaties?

Curious as to the military benefit of empty tanker cars, would have thought Crimea and the Kherson Oblast would prefer full. Special Kherson cat may hold out for kibble and kitty litter.

Great BDA images,

[meleagertoo]

Curious as to the military benefit of empty tanker cars, would have thought Crimea and the Kherson Oblast would prefer full. Special Kherson cat may hold out for kibble and kitty litter.
My mistake, got the direction of travel mixed up.
Looks like the outside track is serviceable then. That's a real pity. Stopping that fuel supply would really make a difference.

[Kent Based]

Watching the video NutLoose posted raises a few questions.

Why did the truck bomb (if that's what it was) detonate where it did? A better spot would seem to be at the apex of the road at the steel arch structure. As well as taking out the road section there would be an additional damage to the supporting cables. Plus possible damage to the rail bridge girders.

Also why detonate in the outside lane? Far better to move over one lane, closer to the rail tracks. More chance of causing damage to the opposite carriageway across the barrier.
.
Alternatively, if it's a false flag attack then why detonate alongside a fuel train? Why take out an incline section if a flat roadway section might prove easier to repair

[Geriaviator]

Some discussion on this earlier. Maybe both parties in this war would like to keep the sea lane open?

[pasta]

Also why detonate in the outside lane? Far better to move over one lane, closer to the rail tracks. More chance of causing damage to the opposite carriageway across the barrier.
It seems quite likely the driver didn't know he was about to meet his maker. The right-hand lane would be the normal one to be using anyway, but especially going up a hill.

[NutLoose]

Or maybe they saw the train as a target of opportunity to seek maximum damage, so detonated there as opposed to the suggestion to do it later, also being a truck I would imagine it was in a crawler lane.

[Tartiflette Fan]

According to Le Figaro

" La Russie a annoncé vendredi 14 octobre ordonner la réparation avant le 1er juillet 2023 du pont de Crimée, partiellement détruit lors d'une explosion (https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/explosion-du-pont-de-kertch-quelles-consequences-pour-la-russie-20221008) samedi dernier que Moscou impute à Kiev.Le gouvernement «détermine la date limite pour la fin des contrats d'État pour l'exécution des travaux au 1er juillet 2023», peut-on lire dans un arrêté signé par le premier ministre russe, Mikhaïl Michoustine."

https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/la-russie-ordonne-la-reparation-du-pont-de-crimee-avant-le-1er-juillet-2023-20221014

EDIT: Apologies - didn't see Beamr's post 212

[WB627]

Apparently the damages are much more severe than what was initially stated by the russkies as they are anticipating to have it repaired by July. Their initial comment was that it would've been back in use the same day.

This'll add to the russian logistic nightmare very effectively as all the heavy stuff needs to be delivered by ferry.


They were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off the back of the truck, so it would have been back in use the same day, but as ever, it turned out to be an FSB clusterf**k :O

[fdr]

A little more information, and some further conflicting commentary that has arisen from the FSB. The website is an OSINT site...

https://www.molfar.global/en-blog/the-cause-of-the-explosion-on-the-kerch-bridge?utm_source=newsweek&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=kerch_bridge

There is one point of interest in the frames grabbed from the video, there is a shape in the frame after the white flash of the detonation, that seems to show a square shape to the left of where the truck was 2 frames before... it is probably an artefact, but could be worth closer inspection. The text indicates commentary within Russia/FSB related to fertiliser, rather than what is described as photo film, which seems to come out of nowhere. The rolls were supposed to be ABS film in the first reports. The direction of the piece is towards a detonation on the water level, evidence seems unclear still either way. My own bias is a distrust of anything that involves Russian state security involvement.

[Kent Based]

Some discussion on this earlier. Maybe both parties in this war would like to keep the sea lane open?

Apologies if I missed that. Didn't see that on this thread. I am curious as to why Ukraine currently needs that sealane open as I wasn't aware that they were able to use it.

Sorry if my questions are an irritant. I've very much enjoyed following the quality information here. Thanks to those who were kind enough to answer my previous questions.

[MechEngr]

Perhaps - the truck bomb example from molfar said it would have to be non-hazardous and then repeats reports that it was film reels.

How many recall that old movie film was made of nitrocellulose compounded to make celluloid? It's possible someone figured out a way to convert or enhance the highly flammable film into an explosive.

[NutLoose]

Dmitri said

Due to the peculiarities of its design made out of full-metal ballast troughs, the burning out of 450 tons of diesel fuel, followed by extinguishing with cold sea water, could seriously damage the integrity of the structure.

follow on replies

Good point about the overheated steel being dosed with cold water. It could easily lead to metallurgical changes in the structure, making it brittle and therefore subject to collapse under load without warning. The only mitigation will be replacement.

[MikeSnow]

Apologies if I missed that. Didn't see that on this thread. I am curious as to why Ukraine currently needs that sealane open as I wasn't aware that they were able to use it.


Technically, they don't. But, from what I've heard, Russian grain transports pass through that sea-lane, and if they blocked it Russia may have decided not to renew the grain deal for Odessa, in retaliation. But Russia is making noises about not renewing that deal anyway.

Perhaps - the truck bomb example from molfar said it would have to be non-hazardous and then repeats reports that it was film reels.

My guess is that all the talk about movie film reels was just an error in translation or interpretation. The Russian sources used the word "пленка" (plenka) which according to the Microsoft Translator can mean foil, film, or sheeting. If I use the same automatic translator on the FSB report released last week, I get "construction polyethylene film". And the initial talk about fertilizer was based on "a source in law enforcement agencies", so not something official.

[WB627]

Perhaps - the truck bomb example from molfar said it would have to be non-hazardous and then repeats reports that it was film reels.

How many recall that old movie film was made of nitrocellulose compounded to make celluloid? It's possible someone figured out a way to convert or enhance the highly flammable film into an explosive.

I not only knew about old movie film being made out of celluloid but I also had a vague recollection of a connection to an explosive, this being the benefits of a miss spent youth! So at the risk of a visit from MI5, I did some research and the answer is....

Gun cotton

The power of guncotton made it suitable for blasting. As a projectile driver, it had around six times the gas generation of an equal volume of black powder and produced less smoke and less heating.

And gun cotton is one of the principle ingredients of Gelignite :oh:

It is all coming back to me :E

I have no idea how that could be related to the Kerch Bridge explosion, unless someone over there is lot better at chemistry than me :{

During my research I also came across this, something that I was also vaguely aware of....

Once Upon a Time, Exploding Billiard Balls Were An Everyday Thing

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/once-upon-time-exploding-billiard-balls-were-everyday-thing-180962751/

So for those of you playing with your vintage balls, please do take care :}

[fdr]

Todays revelation that there is an intent by Russia to destroy the dam on the Dneiper, upstream of Kherson, will make the Kerch Bridge, and the channel of the Sea of Azov under the centre span an inevitable total loss. That would be well within the Ukrainian capabilities to achieve, and makes Rostov irrelevant, as well as all the cities on the edge of Azov, like Berdiansk, Marioupol, etc. It also is an own goal to Crimea, losing the water supply to purportedly guarantee water to the same place seems to suggest that the emotional 5 Y/O is past his bed time and should stop making plans while in a huff.

Fill in the blanks for 5 points each:

Russia blows the Karkhova dam, Ukraine [[b]fill in the blank] to [[b]fill in the blank]. This leaves [[b]fill in the blank] without [[b]fill in the blank] for the next [[b]fill in the blank].
Russia blows the ZNPP, Ukraine [[b]fill in the blank] to [[b]fill in the blank]. This leaves [[b]fill in the blank] without [[b]fill in the blank] for the next [[b]fill in the blank].

(90 points just for spelling your name right)

:}


And another thing:

Russia dropping the dam at Nova Karkhova, or dropping a nuke on Kherson is the epitome of a terrorist act, and has about a 90% chance of being viewed as such by 70% of the UN states, and a 70% chance of 90% of the UN states viewing that as a state sponsored terrorist action.

The action has reportedly been suggested by Russia's puppets, and Russia is the 7urd at the top of that pile of excrement.

So what happens when Russia gets finally, and well beyond due date, labelled as a terrorist state, and certainly a sponsor of terrorism? (remember Chechnya? 2014, Georgia? etc, they are a recidivist terrorist state, and they may be about to cross the rubicon of bad taste).

Does the right of "innocent passage" relate to a terrorist organisation, actor or state? Ooops Vlad, enjoy your boating around St Pete, and exactly how will you be communicating with Kaliningrad? You effectively shut down Kaliningrad, about time too. How about the Black Sea fleet? where ya gonna run to sinner man? You won't get down to Turkey, and if you do, your fleet will be impounded on arrival in waters beyond Turkey, but even Turkey will not stand for Russia as a terrorist state using their waterway. Every Russian flagged ship, plane will be at risk of being impounded where they are, as they should be, where Russia is a terrorist state. That leaves Vlad with the Northern fleet to play with, and a constrained Pacific fleet. Nice job Vlad. Russian shipping, out of business, secondary sanctions guarantee that outcome.
Trade with Russia such that it is would be curtained completely,
Travel of any Russian passports would be a thing of memory,
Mandatory seizure of all assets in foreign jurisdictions,
[add as necessary... ]


I was wondering why the US has been so reticent to label Russia a terrorist state, and it is because it is catastrophic to Russia, as it should be. Russia gets to do Russian stuff in Russia for a fair old time, and doesn't get to do anything with the rest of the world

US State Dept naughty List:

Cuba January 12, 2021
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) November 20, 2017
Iran January 19, 1984
Syria December 29, 1979

How many of these naughty list states ship, trade, interact with the country that designates them as terrorist states?




Chakhavadze, G., Sultana, M., Grasis, j., "The Concept of Maritime Terrorism Between Traditionalism and Expansionism: Re-thinking Maritime Terrorism as a Transnational Crime", Baltic Yearbook of International Law Online, 9 Sep 2021

[steamchicken]

The Kerch bridge isn't over the Dnieper.

[MikeSnow]

The Kerch bridge isn't over the Dnieper.

I believe he is suggesting that any restraint Ukraine had against dropping the Kerch bridge and blocking the sea-lanes going under it would be gone if Russia would flood Kherson city.

[fdr]

The Kerch bridge isn't over the Dnieper.

I believe he is suggesting that any restraint Ukraine had against dropping the Kerch bridge and blocking the sea-lanes going under it would be gone if Russia would flood Kherson city.

It's an absolute certainty that the Kerch bridge gets dropped if the dam at Nova Karkhova gets destroyed by Russia.
Why? The wanton destruction of the dam to harm Ukraines citizens, destroys the water storage for Crimea. It also will destroy the land routes for Russia to access Crimea, which approach the Kherson area, and will be shredded by a major inundation. That leaves the Kerch Bridge as the sole access other than ship and aircraft. Russia doesn't have the capacity to continue a Berlin Airlift, and their boats seem to have interests in conversion to submarines. If the war gets "nasty" then the restraint by Ukraine to cause disruption of military supply routes while not affecting economic and civil trade would not be rational, so the dropping of the centre spans into the channel would be a fair option. That would cease all transitions in/out of the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, and bottle up Rostov, then the former port... as well as all other ports surrounding the sea. The Ukrainians don't need to hit further around the coast of the Black Sea, it is going to be untenable to sit back and not label Russia as a terrorist state, and that will stop all Russian shipping internationally. They will barely have a means to transit between Vladivostok and Murmansk....

[NutLoose]

It would also scupper the forced “evacuation” of Kherson. I believe they didn’t want to knock both spans down until the last moment to allow Russians to flee Crimea rather than have to deal with those that remain..

[fdr]

It would also scupper the forced “evacuation” of Kherson. I believe they didn’t want to knock both spans down until the last moment to allow Russians to flee Crimea rather than have to deal with those that remain..

Personally, I would like to see the Russians happily playing in their own kitty litter. To date, Vlad's personal wealth is almost enough to make up for the naughty things he has done, other than the dead civilians and Special Military War fighters of Ukraine. However he packages his doo-doo to the Russians, he will be remembered for what is the "Russian criminal attack against another Sovereign Neighbour", [I think calling this the "War in Ukraine" or "Ukraine War" is offensive to Ukrainians, they didn't start it, they didn't invade another country, Vlad did that... rant concluded]

Divesting himself of his earnings, to pay reparations for his breakages would be a good start. Whether he keeps his head on his shoulders or his face off the pavement is between him, gravity and the minions that dote on his every word. For now, he has more or less done a favour to the rest of the world by dismantling the Russian Airforce, Navy and Army, that should be good for at least a generation. I would hope that the people that signed the Budapest Memorandum would honour their word, as that would have stopped this untidiness in it's tracks, yet, here we are. To my elected representatives, no xmas cards for your shabby conduct and failure to honour your word. The belated support born of being shamed by the dignity and honour of Ukraine in upholding the very tenets of decency that our reps found means to avoid, year, no pudding for you guys/girls. It takes the women leaders of the Baltics and Finland to show any real backbone, you girls are the nearest thing to a bright light in this whole sordid take of human discharge, avarice and hubris. "Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how was the show?"

Russia can do the maths, and Vlad can actually turn the Titanic around now, and save his neck, well maybe on the latter, depends on how good a story he spins and how many Lada's he can give away in the great Russian car giveaway.

Flooding Kherson is pretty stupid, but so was the start of this war. Pouring in more candidates with the callsign "dead meat" seems to be adverse to Vlad's health and retirement prospects. If the rest of the world has the intestinal fortitude that the girls of Scandinavian/Baltic Governments have, then calling Russia out as a terrorist state and imposing the full force of such sanctions is the fastest way to get him to start playing with his abacus. Preferably before he causes a meltdown of the ZNPP, at which point, China, along with every other southern 'Stan, may just have a bit of an issue with Vlad.

Vlad will do what he will do, but the options are not that numerous only the time, bodycount and details of the damage change.

If he floods East Kherson Oblast, and melts ZNPP, I would think that the Kerch bridge centre span needs to become a hazard to navigation.

IMHO....:mad:


P.S.: There is a case to be made that dropping the Kerch bridge now may stop the deliberate flooding of the Eastern Kherson Oblast, even Vlad is going to take care about drowning his own troops, at least at headline levels of losses.

[Winemaker]

Yeah but, fdr, I really don't think Vlad is motivated by wealth as a final goal. I suspect the manipulation of power is really his thing and the resistance of the Ukrainians is a craw in his throat. I think we are beyond rational now, it's become personal.

[fdr]

Yeah but, fdr, I really don't think Vlad is motivated by wealth as a final goal. I suspect the manipulation of power is really his thing and the resistance of the Ukrainians is a craw in his throat. I think we are beyond rational now, it's become personal.

Power is lord Lucas' gig, the cash gets that happening. Take away the cash, and he has some more issues, more importantly, take away the cash of the people that like the strong leader, and there is room for a bathroom accident or two.

[MikeSnow]

After removing the road surface of the damaged span, they are now cutting the remaining metal structure into small pieces, which are then loaded on a barge:

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1583127455329443843

[fdr]

After removing the road surface of the damaged span, they are now cutting the remaining metal structure into small pieces, which are then loaded on a barge:

Russia is a master of OpSec! Excellent idea to have "critical" infrastructure designed/built by the other side.

[Winemaker]

Russia is a master of OpSec! Excellent idea to have "critical" infrastructure designed/built by the other side.
I've been curious as to who is providing the high resolution photos of the collapsed bridge structure, they only help in knowing what's needed to complete the job. Are the pictures from Russian media? There were close shots of the concrete spalling caused by the fuel fire on the rail bridge that suggest it might be wise to use the other track only, and not at full loads. The backup of trucks waiting (3 days?) to cross by ferry suggests there are serious supply issues to Crimea.

I've read posts that say that the canal supplying water to Crimea was for irrigation and not sanitary supply; is there water supply piping on the bridge? If so, that would be a nice target.

[jolihokistix]

Yes, I read somewhere recently that there is vital water piped over the Kerch Bridge, ...not that I have seen any evidence with my eyes.

[NutLoose]

Well it seems in 2020 it hadn’t been resolved, I heard the bridge had a supply somewhere, article to long to copy.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/inside-crimeas-slow-burn-water-crisis/

[NutLoose]

More on the repairs

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1583298078282391552

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1583298078282391552

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1583171435257745408?s=61&t=HmBZ2Yt_6yca-emS18oyzA


Zelensky: 'Ukraine didn't order Crimean Bridge attack.'

President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Canadian CTV news outlet that Russian domestic conflicts could cause the explosion.

"We definitely did not order that, as far as I know," Zelensky said.

[fdr]

Zelensky: 'Ukraine didn't order Crimean Bridge attack.'
President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Canadian CTV news outlet that Russian domestic conflicts could cause the explosion.
"We definitely did not order that, as far as I know," Zelensky said.

If Ukraine had intended to damage the bridge, they would have done simultaneous attacks on the other supply routes, to make the point, and let the hint drop with Farquard Jnr. The value in the attack would be the shock to the army on its supply chain, that didn't happen. I doubt the explosives came from Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Georgia, Armenia, etc, I think the came out of the local GRU or KGB supply.
IMHO.

[NutLoose]

Replacement bridge spans already constructed!! sounds like they started early ;)

https://www-flashcrimea-com.translate.goog/news/vse-elementy-osnovnyh-metallokonstrukciy-krymskogo-mosta-budut-dostavleny-cherez-2-dnya?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

– In total, more than 1,200 tons of metal structures have been manufactured by the factories for the restoration of the Crimean Bridge, of which 890 tons have already been delivered to the production base. Delivery of the rest of the cargo is expected in two days, the press service of Rosavtodor said.

For the parallel organization of work on the installation of spans, four slipways have been built, according to Rosavtodor.

“On three of them, the pre-assembly of superstructures has already begun, ” the report says.

Rosavtodor reports that more than 40 tons of high-strength bolts and 10 km of welds will be needed to strengthen the four spans. The assembled superstructures, according to the developed technology, are delivered from slipways to the place of further sliding, which the builders will start in early November.

[WB627]

Replacement bridge spans already constructed!! sounds like they started early ;)

https://www-flashcrimea-com.translate.goog/news/vse-elementy-osnovnyh-metallokonstrukciy-krymskogo-mosta-budut-dostavleny-cherez-2-dnya?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp


Sounds like they started before it was blown up :E

[Flying Binghi]

Sounds like they started before it was blown up :E

It’s basically steel and concrete. Wouldn’t take long at all.