rex Celebrating 20 Years

[Stationair8]

Full page advertisement in today’s The Australian celebrating Rex’s twenty years of service to the Australian community.

Even PM Albanese gets in on the Rex backslapping.

[Deano969]

And another 737 due and 2 more before Christmas
I don't think they are going to pull jet opps any time soon, they must be seeing some potential...

[MickG0105]

And another 737 due and 2 more before Christmas
I don't think they are going to pull jet opps any time soon, they must be seeing some potential...
Rex do not have a good track record of following through on fleet planning announcements.

This is what they said in an ASX announcement at the end of June last year ,

REX SECURES TWO ADDITIONAL BOEING 737-800NGs

Rex today announced it had signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with a lessor for the lease of two Boeing 737-800NGs.
The two aircraft are expected to arrive in late August, increasing the 737 fleet to eight, and are scheduled to enter service on Rex's domestic network in September.
...
"We hope to lease another two aircraft to take our fleet size to 10 before the end of this year as foreshadowed in our plan announced last September."

And what happened was ... nothing.

[Ladloy]

Rex do not have a good track record of following through on fleet planning announcements.

This is what they said in an ASX announcement at the end of June last year ,



And what happened was ... nothing.
Hey remember when they said they were getting ATRs?

[PoppaJo]

I don't think they are going to pull jet opps any time soon, they must be seeing some potential...

You are writing what you want to hear.

The numbers today are nothing short of grim. Absolutely horrendous. The thing is dead and died months ago.

[Deano969]

Poppa
Care to share numbers rather that your opinion?
Do you have data, a spreadsheet or even any actual numbers?
I get it, you are dearly wanting REX to fail and you totally love where you work and don't want competition to effect your conditions, so you spot a couple of flights with low numbers of pax getting on or off and extrapolate those numbers to every flight
You see QF JQ and VA with close to full as they regularly cancel flights and amalgamate loads, obviously REX don't have that option, well not yet....

Lets look logically
If, for example, REX jet was performing so badly one would assume
1) They would not be adding more 738s
2) They may sit on current numbers and chase some FIFO work out west and move existing frames over to the west

However
If things look promising one would assume
1) More frames for greater frequency
2) More frames for more destinations and multi sector sales eg Perth to Gold Coast via Sydney or Melbourne
3) REX may well understand that to be competitive in jet opps, they will need a fleet of 20+ to cover destinations and frequency

And let's be honest, the last point scares the pants off you....

VH-MFM (https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-800-2-wtfl-fly-leasing/edz6p9) is due shortly...

[TimmyTee]

Flew on Rex to Sydney yesterday, 12 total. Never disembarked off a 737 so peacefully!

[MickG0105]

Lets look logically
If, for example, REX jet was performing so badly one would assume
1) They would not be adding more 738s

Let's look factually, Rex has been talking about adding to its jet fleet for well over a year and nothing has changed. They've had the same size fleet since March 2021.

2) They may sit on current numbers and chase some FIFO work out west and move existing frames over to the west
Is that not now a live option given their recent involvement in acquiring Cobham's FIFO operations?

However
If things look promising one would assume
1) More frames for greater frequency

They could achieve greater frequency now with their existing fleet. Their current "frame" utilisation is ordinary, to say the least.


3) REX may well understand that to be competitive in jet opps...
​​​​​​By what convolution of English do you arrive at two 'p's when contracting the word 'operations'?

VH-MFM is due shortly ...
Do you have a date for that?

MFM is not currently an assigned registration and the hex code quoted in that Planespotters entry is for a GA-8 Airvan. ​​​​​​

[Deano969]

Mick
1) Why add frames during the height of the pandemic?
Perhaps if VA were gone, but that did not happen

2) I was referring to growing Cobham

3) In your opinion the utilization is low, they may well have a strategy with a significant uptick with increased frames, to my knowledge they have no 737s parked, can we say the same for VA / QF?

4) Stop being pedantic opps ops whatevs

5) I suggest you have a second look on Planespotters

[morno]

Mick
1) Why add frames during the height of the pandemic?
Perhaps if VA were gone, but that did not happen

2) I was referring to growing Cobham

3) In your opinion the utilization is low, they may well have a strategy with a significant uptick with increased frames, to my knowledge they have no 737s parked, can we say the same for VA / QF?

4) Stop being pedantic opps ops whatevs

5) I suggest you have a second look on Planespotters

There is still no registration on the CASA database for MFM

[MickG0105]

1) Why add frames during the height of the pandemic?
Perhaps if VA were gone, but that did not happen

WTF are you talking about now? Rex have been talking about increasing their fleet for well over a year. The world has known that Virgin weren't going anywhere for nearly two years now.

Around this time last year Rex told the ASX that they were adding two aircraft in late August, and increasing their 737 fleet to eight by September last year. Between that announcement and now domestic pax movements have quadrupled. And nothing happened to Rex's B737 fleet.

If they didn't/couldn't add aircraft during that sort of surge in demand what makes now a good time to be adding capacity?


3) In your opinion the utilization is low ...

Their utilisation rate is 20-30 percent below QF/VA. I don't know whether they have some form of religious observance policy in place, maybe they all get together and pray for better times (or a grant), but on Sundays half their fleet is still on the ground come mid-morning.

3)... they may well have a strategy with a significant uptick with increased frames, ...
WTF does that mean? They can't put enough bums on seats now to warrant flying their fleet at the rate they should be. What strategy would allow them to conjure up more pax by adding capacity? Magic? Wishful thinking?


4) Stop being pedantic opps ops whatevs

Try writing as though English was your first language. All this "opps", "frames", "strategy with significant uptick" nonsense has all the hallmarks of someone who has heard of few aviation terms and then throws them around trying to look like they understand the business.

5) I suggest you have a second look on Planespotters
Why? Did you just send through an update? That hex code, 7C3D80, is for an Airvan and -MFM isn't on the register. What else am I meant to be looking at?

[PoppaJo]

I get it, you are dearly wanting REX to fail and you totally love where you work and don't want competition to effect your conditions, so you spot a couple of flights with low numbers of pax getting on or off and extrapolate those numbers to every flight
You see QF JQ and VA with close to full as they regularly cancel flights and amalgamate loads, obviously REX don't have that option, well not yet....


Your claims are just opinions and lies. Nobody asked Rex to start a 737 operation. Nobody asked Bonza to start some fantasy 737 operation. Serving a market that does not exist. I am not about wanting to see players fall over, I’m not about wanting to see operators doing bad, I’m all about a sustainable path forward for this profession. The most sustainable way for this profession over the next few decades is QF/VA/JQ and the regionals/charters. You could say that I’m anti competitive, wrong, simply the market isn’t big enough for more players, the proof is in the history. At the end of the day, what pisses me off is flight crews being screwed over. That’s all these time wasters achieve.

You will find the others are actually already full when they cancel flights. That’s the current issue at the moment, it’s not load related but operations related. Regardless, I haven’t had anything cancelled on my roster or at my base for the last fortnight. The last 3 days not a single seat available.

[Deano969]

Your claims are just opinions and lies. Nobody asked Rex to start a 737 operation. Nobody asked Bonza to start some fantasy 737 operation. Serving a market that does not exist. I am not about wanting to see players fall over, I’m not about wanting to see operators doing bad, I’m all about a sustainable path forward for this profession. The most sustainable way for this profession over the next few decades is QF/VA/JQ and the regionals/charters. You could say that I’m anti competitive, wrong, simply the market isn’t big enough for more players, the proof is in the history. At the end of the day, what pisses me off is flight crews being screwed over. That’s all these time wasters achieve.

You will find the others are actually already full when they cancel flights. That’s the current issue at the moment, it’s not load related but operations related. Regardless, I haven’t had anything cancelled on my roster or at my base for the last fortnight. The last 3 days not a single seat available.

So you are not wanting to see players to fall over, you just don't want them too start in the first place
News flash, the 2 airline agreement ended decades ago.....
You say Australia is not big enough for 3 players (QF, Link, JQ are all one and the same as far as I am concerned)
Australia has some of the busiest trunk routes on the planet
Thinner routes are served in Asia, the US and Europe by 4 5 6 airlines with 2-4 flights daily
And if you are worried that a bit of competition will see you conditions suffer, you should be more worried about JQ and Network

[Wizofoz]

Seems like the three new -800s are a thing
Rex Brings In More Boeings On Back Of A Bumper July Performance (simpleflying.com) (https://simpleflying.com/rex-regional-express-more-boeing-737-800s-record-july-result/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=echo&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3wXVk87PbGVeppSup9ipkdTI5agF4nGishbAxTWOL957Kgtj-Wo3GGYjE#Echobox=1659406518)

[PoppaJo]

Australia has some of the busiest trunk routes on the planet
Thinner routes are served in Asia, the US and Europe by 4 5 6 airlines with 2-4 flights daily
And if you are worried that a bit of competition will see you conditions suffer, you should be more worried about JQ and Network

Busiest routes so that means guaranteed success? Not how it works buddy. Triangle is largely corporate which drives the numbers, all heavily skewed towards Qantas and Virgin with associated huge networks, international feed, corporate deals and so on. Jetstar has the low cost stuff, the other two play for the corporate traffic and premium leisure. All bases are covered, what market is Rex actually going for?

Now to waste 2 mins of my time and prove a point, a good example is this evening in the main trunk run. Virgin is no less than 95% full between 4-6pm. Rex is 20%. Later on tonight it appears the numbers sink further. Again, why do we need a third and fourth airline?

Can you explain to me in detail how this player with a few NGs is going to result in my pay being cut? Are you trying to say they are going to get 30 machines, rip the traffic away from the others, resulting in my employer and others reducing capacity and cutting conditions? Are you on drugs?

[Wizofoz]

Busiest routes so that means guaranteed success? Not how it works buddy. Triangle is largely corporate which drives the numbers, all heavily skewed towards Qantas and Virgin with associated huge networks, international feed, corporate deals and so on. Jetstar has the low cost stuff, the other two play for the corporate traffic and premium leisure. All bases are covered, what market is Rex actually going for?

Now to waste 2 mins of my time and prove a point, a good example is this evening in the main trunk run. Virgin is no less than 95% full between 4-6pm. Rex is 20%. Later on tonight it appears the numbers sink further. Again, why do we need a third and fourth airline?

Can you explain to me in detail how this player with a few NGs is going to result in my pay being cut? Are you trying to say they are going to get 30 machines, rip the traffic away from the others, resulting in my employer and others reducing capacity and cutting conditions? Are you on drugs?
Where do you get your numbers, Poppajo?

[Paragraph377]

Where do you get your numbers, Poppajo?
I’m not speaking on behalf of Poppajo, but I think he/she has a prime viewing position from the pointy end of his/her jet parked next to the REX machines.

[Mr_App]

Thought I’d join to educate a few on the topic. Is a few online platforms you can use. Not sure which one the poster is using above however if you have a subscription to Nexus, ExpertFlyer, KVS availability, you can see loads. How it works is these companies buy the data from the GDS (as do agents with full access ), they make a business from subscriptions.

Having a quick look I can see Rex loads on Nexus and ExpertF. I cannot see Jetstar or Qantaslink. Qantas is very patchy due to awards. Rex is a simple airline, the numbers are accurate. You can get a free subscription to the second one however I think they restrict viewing. The numbers are good post departure for accuracy with award seats you won’t get accurate data for some carriers. You use these platforms for award planning which can become a very useful tool. For example, Expert Flyer is giving a load for the now departing Melbourne to Sydney of around 30 people. A Sydney to Brisbane flight looks busy. A Melbourne to Adelaide flight about a third. The figures are the same on Nexus, so nothing wrong with the numbers. EDIT- Expert flyer seems to offer a free subscription but limits the amounts of searches to about half dozen flights a day. So anyone can go and suss out loads. I assume this is where the journalist and posters on this site get the loads from.

[transition_alt]

I’m excited to see a select few proven wrong when VH-MFM arrives from Europe mid this month.

[brokenagain]

I’m excited to see a select few proven wrong when VH-MFM arrives from Europe mid this month.

Maybe so, but it’ll just be another 737 flying around with loads that wouldn’t fill a Saab.

[Deano969]

Quote from Simply Flying

Heavily booked planes are helping to account for the bumper revenue. Rex's load factor was at 86% across the entire domestic network. Although the airline did not provide a breakdown between its jet-operated trunk routes and its turboprop-operated routes, Simple Flying understands the average load factor on Rex's turboprop services averaged between 70% and 75% in July, with loads substantially higher on the jet services

I'd be trusting this over Jo sitting in his cockpit counting heads

[PoppaJo]

I think you missed the bit about the first three weeks being full across the board? I don’t think anyone said Rexy had light numbers across early July.

Peak season is over now buddy. Things back to normal.

Here is an idea for you seeing how far off the charts your logic is. Join one of the above subscription platforms and report back to us on here how things look, say, this morning? All looks pretty **** to me. That’s right, you don’t want to report single figure numbers back to us cause your precious little Rexy is doing so ****?

[SHVC]

So Rex are going to expand because of a bumber school holiday period, if you can’t fill a plane then you never will. But seeing MFM is not on the registry I’m going to take that and slap it on my AC.

[Mr_App]

This is what I can see on Nexus and ExpertF this morning. These numbers are pulled from the GDS they are concrete. Give or take a few seats below as I quickly counted.

ADL-MEL 60

SYD-MEL 30

MEL-BNE 150

MEL-SYD 60

BNE-SYD 35

[SHVC]

Cracking loads, bring on more 73s as they’re needed asap. The reality is as mentioned earlier Australia just can’t support further airlines we just don’t have the population.

[430W]

They are on a winner! Not!

Their annual results are due out soon. That will be an eye opener you would think.

Notice their share price went up 16+% in two days on about $320K of shares. For a market capitalisation increase of about $24M. Doesn't make sense.

[Colonel_Klink]

So Rex are going to expand because of a bumber school holiday period, if you can’t fill a plane then you never will. But seeing MFM is not on the registry I’m going to take that and slap it on my AC.

Someone from the Rex social media team must be reading a lot of PPRUNE - their social media is bombarding photos of 737 VH-MFM 😂

[MickG0105]

Someone from the Rex social media team must be reading a lot of PPRUNE - their social media is bombarding photos of 737 VH-MFM 😂
I'm surprised Rex didn't ask for a rego out of the unallocated Rs, like RXU.

[Guptar]

What a depressing thread. Why are experts posting here, rather than actually managing/starting airlines themselves.

When it comes to Rex, it's the owners money, it's his train set. He can do what he damn well wants. Same for Bonza, same for XYZ.

It seems many of you long for the days when it was "don't talk to me, cause I'm a pilot".

I'm so glad I've left the commercial aviation scene behind me.

[Icarus2001]

When it comes to Rex, it's the owners money, it's his train set. He can do what he damn well wants. You do realise that REX is a publicly listed company, not private.

[Low Pass]

This is what I can see on Nexus and ExpertF this morning. These numbers are pulled from the GDS they are concrete. Give or take a few seats below as I quickly counted.

ADL-MEL 60

SYD-MEL 30

MEL-BNE 150

MEL-SYD 60

BNE-SYD 35

Thanks for this. Please keep them coming. I need reassurance i left that horrible workplace for the right reasons :)

[TimmyTee]

it's the owners money, it's his train set. He can do what he damn well wants.

I'm so glad I've left the commercial aviation scene behind me.

obviously not into the finance sector

[SHVC]

What a depressing thread. Why are experts posting here, rather than actually managing/starting airlines themselves.

Because we all know Australia does not have the population to support more airlines.

[MickG0105]

This is what I can see on Nexus and ExpertF this morning. These numbers are pulled from the GDS they are concrete. Give or take a few seats below as I quickly counted.

ADL-MEL 60

SYD-MEL 30

MEL-BNE 150

MEL-SYD 60

BNE-SYD 35
Loads yesterday and today (noting fewer flights today) are not bad. Certainly into the profitable range. Notably they are now able to get bums on J seats - that takes a lot of pressure off yield.

[Paragraph377]

You do realise that REX is a publicly listed company, not private.
Quote of the day! Correct, it’s a ‘public train set.

[MickG0105]

Quote of the day! Correct, it’s a ‘public train set.
Not exactly a public train set, more correctly the shareholders' train set.

However, when you have five people holding 51 percent of the stock, well, nothing cobbled together by management is likely to fail to get majority shareholder approval (executive remuneration aside). KHL has routinely thumbed his nose at basic corporate governance principles for publicly listed companies since the get-go, starting with his dual role as Chairman and Chief Executive.

[Mr_App]

Loads yesterday and today (noting fewer flights today) are not bad. Certainly into the profitable range. Notably they are now able to get bums on J seats - that takes a lot of pressure off yield.
Affirm.

A few at the lower 100 end however many in the 150-170.

However no flights from Melbourne after 1230. In fact today I can’t see more than about 15 flights. They have about 1% of the Jet capacity today.

[Ladloy]

20 is an interesting number. It's how many flight crew resignations Rex received this week. One being from the management team!

[Deano969]

For Monday
REX
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47
VA
VA 800 Sydney Melbourne 72
VA 816 Sydney Melbourne 36

Anyone care to add more...

[Mr_App]

Don’t forget the data is only useful post departure. I can see on KVS ahead of time on Virgin, the free capacity, Rex don’t provide such access they have more basic systems.

Those two Virgin flights have 5 and 9 seats available in Y. I can only see passenger to date checked in for Rex. You need to wait for post departure and revisit.

[MickG0105]

For Monday
REX
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47
VA
VA 800 Sydney Melbourne 72
VA 816 Sydney Melbourne 36

Anyone care to add more...
You can round out Rex's SYD-MEL flights with ZL009 with 46 pax. That gives them 252 pax across five flights. Revenue would likely not cover fuel and airport charges.

[Deano969]

Yeah, but hardly the teens and twenties the likes of PoppaJo have been quoting
Likely still going to fill a few more seats today

[MickG0105]

Yeah, but hardly the teens and twenties the likes of PoppaJo have been quoting
Likely still going to fill a few more seats today
The numbers that PJ quoted were accurate at the time. They were essentially confirmed independently by the study put together by The Australian newspaper. How many times does that point need to be made?

But, staying with the present situation, here's how MEL-SYD looks for Rex tomorrow;

ZL018 30
ZL042 49
ZL102 48
ZL152 56
ZL182 28

That's 211 pax over five flights. That sees the day out for Rex on one of the busiest city-pair routes in the world with sub-30 percent loads. They would have lost money for the entire day on that sector and it should be their money-maker.

Separately, you were correct in stating that -MFM will be their next jet (anyone's guess as to why they didn't request -RXU). Don't assume that it will have the same hex code as the previously registered aircraft though.

[PoppaJo]

The Rex numbers won’t be accurate until pushback. They will probably double, or you would hope, triple. To make money, well, they need to quadruple.

[Deano969]

The numbers that PJ quoted were accurate at the time. They were essentially confirmed independently by the study put together by The Australian newspaper. How many times does that point need to be made?

But, staying with the present situation, here's how MEL-SYD looks for Rex tomorrow;

ZL018 30
ZL042 49
ZL102 48
ZL152 56
ZL182 28

That's 211 pax over five flights. That sees the day out for Rex on one of the busiest city-pair routes in the world with sub-30 percent loads. They would have lost money for the entire day on that sector and it should be their money-maker.

Separately, you were correct in stating that -MFM will be their next jet (anyone's guess as to why they didn't request -RXU). Don't assume that it will have the same hex code as the previously registered aircraft though.

So it's fair to say that REX's numbers are on the improve, all be it slowly and admittedly, far from where they would want them....
If they are looking long term, then growth is far better than stagnant or declining

Unrelated, can anyone elaborate on why, when searching QF, half the seats on a lot of Sydney-Melbourne flights are blocked?

[TimmyTee]

For Monday
REX
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47
VA
VA 800 Sydney Melbourne 72
VA 816 Sydney Melbourne 36

Anyone care to add more...
wait - going off your subsequent post, are you saying these are good or even acceptable loads on this city pair..?

[Paragraph377]

wait - going off your subsequent post, are you saying these are good or even acceptable loads on this city pair..?
Load numbers in their 30’s or 40’s are loss making numbers, not even close to breaking even. Simply awful numbers and no sustainable long term.

[SHVC]

They’re better than the 12 average a flight last week.

[Deano969]

wait - going off your subsequent post, are you saying these are good or even acceptable loads on this city pair..?

Yes and no
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards

Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....

Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX

But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result

Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term

[PoppaJo]

Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
Right so things will magically improve in 5 or 10 years. That worked for Tiger. Only lost a billion in 13 years. In fact, as time went on, things got worse. Same at Ozjet. Same at Strategic.

They are definitely not a Pilot. I know some pilots think they can run airlines but $hit this stuff is off the charts, do us a favour and stay the heck away from this industry with this dribble.

[Red69]

Yes and no
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards

Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....

Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX

But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result

Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term

Where are they getting the Sydney and Melbourne slots from? Thought they were all allocated.

[Wizofoz]

Right so things will magically improve in 5 or 10 years. That worked for Tiger. Only lost a billion in 13 years. In fact, as time went on, things got worse. Same at Ozjet. Same at Strategic.

They are definitely not a Pilot. I know some pilots think they can run airlines but $hit this stuff is off the charts, do us a favour and stay the heck away from this industry with this dribble.
After years of gestation, Tiger were operating profitably with very high load factors. The stupid decision by VA to convert them from A320s to 737s, then stop half way, meant they were losing money with full aircraft. The market exisisted for them to have a profitable business.

[MickG0105]

Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards

A "lack of mass advertising" was entirely Rex's call. They decided to get into jets, cut their marketing budget and relied on Sharpie spruiking on Sunrise. Great plan. That whole "slow start" was on them, and it most assuredly wasn't inevitable.

Same same with the agency deal. They could have signed up with Flight Centre from the get-go. It took them 18 months of being bled white to get the message.


Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....

Where do you come up with this stuff? Regional load factors have been in low- to mid-70s for the entire time that Rex has been in existence, bar 2020-21 when they slumped into the 60s. By Rex's own accounting they've flown high-50s to 60-something load factors for the last half a decade. Even with the leg-up from subsidised routes, no one makes money with half loads.


50% increase of 737s by Christmas

As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."


Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
As many a failed enterprise has learned, 5-10 year plans are meaningless if you go broke in three. You need to be able to navigate the short term in order to get to the long term.

[TimmyTee]

Yes and no
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards

Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....

Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX

But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result

Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term
cheers Sharpy 👍🏼

[Deano969]

You can round out Rex's SYD-MEL flights with ZL009 with 46 pax. That gives them 252 pax across five flights. Revenue would likely not cover fuel and airport charges.

Update
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46 now 65
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68 now 84
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45 now 63
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47 now 63
ZL 009 Sydney Melbourne ?? now 54
Not including business....
329 / 66 average from 168 seats around 40%

[MickG0105]

Update
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46 now 65
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68 now 84
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45 now 63
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47 now 63
ZL 009 Sydney Melbourne ?? now 54
Not including business....
329 / 66 average from 168 seats around 40%
Yep, thanks. I can see those numbers myself.

Where do you think the break-even point is for one of those flights?

[Deano969]

Good question Mick
I'll have a stab at 100-120
As you know there are an awful lot of factors in determining a break even
I have not as yet looked at other routes or weekend loads
I'm assuming (without looking) they are doing better on the Weekends and Gold Coast and Adelaide, which may push up their average loads though
If I were running REX and got to triple digits average by November, then that would be a very encouraging outcome

[Icarus2001]

Lets be kind and say 90 pax for break even. How many break even flights in the last six months?

[Deano969]

Lets be kind and say 90 pax for break even. How many break even flights in the last six months?
What a pointless question
I know of hardly any new entrants getting huge loads just after start up
Remembering we only really got back up and running this year

If your bet is 90 to break even, then November is a given
I'd reckon, factoring other routes, I think REX ain't far off, particularly when you factor weekend loads

[Australopithecus]

You cannot guess at a break even load factor until you have an idea of their yields. Even the cost side of the profit equation is muddy because we don’t know when their lease escalators kick in. Given that fuel on the MEL-SYD route is costing $5,200 per sector average this week you would guess that the total cost is somewhere near $12k Maybe more.

For comparison, Southwest Air's costs on a similar leg would be around $7,700 USD in 2021. Fuel has only increased since then.

Just looked at a SYD MEL return flight late in last week of Aug. $213 round trip. The break even at that number is laughable.


editted to correct SWA data. Their costs are around $0.106/ASM.

Historically industry typical break even load factors are around 75%. When a carrier achieves significant cost savings they often squander it by offering too low fares.

[SHVC]

Regardless of their pax figures increasing/decreasing and the desire to bring more frames how do they solve the biggest problem of all,

Slots into Sydney?

Bonza will struggle also with this. I can’t see QF,JQ and VA giving any up.

[Australopithecus]

Yeah, and gates, and lounges, and FF etc. I thought that the slots Rex are using currently were only available until international traffic returns to 2019 levels

[PoppaJo]

Tigerair had about 13,000 slots per half year. Last season Rex had access to half of these. Certainly will have problems if Virgin get them all back. But the SY-ML flights are empty so who cares, perhaps focus on another part of the country.

I recall Bonza have already said they tried Mascot but no slots. Perhaps next March. Can you imagine the $hitstorm should Bonza get allocated some Tigerair slots with Rex. Sharpy will go into meeellltdown.

[Australopithecus]

Before I comment on this thread again I am going, against all that is holy, to buy a couple of J class tickets* on Rex and report back.


*because no bueno for QF staff travel on desired dates. But it sounded good, right?

[tossbag]

Rex's 737 product is quite good, but **** all people are using it, meaning that their advertising and marketing is shot. It's hard spending money with them when Sharp is involved though.

[Australopithecus]

Yeah, you’re right. Y class it is.

[MickG0105]

Before I comment on this thread again I am going, against all that is holy, to buy a couple of J class tickets* on Rex and report back.


*because no bueno for QF staff travel on desired dates. But it sounded good, right?
I'd give them a go myself but they don't fly out of MCY. They almost certainly have a better than half decent product. Their roll out strategy, however, has been two large servings of half-arsed.

They launched a new product into a market that they traditionally had no real exposure to, cut their marketing budget just to be sure that no one heard about it, botched their market placement, sent mixed messages to the market and straight out lied to the ASX, and then whinged incessantly that all their woes were of someone else's doing. If the rejected take-off they had out of Sydney in the first week of their launch had have gotten full media attention they probably would have been DOA.

They've managed 875 paying pax over ten flights SYD-MEL today for a just sub-50 percent load factor, the only consolation being they're managing to get bums on J seats.

Despite all of those balls ups they're still in there with half a chance largely due to QF's and VA's problems.

[Deano969]

Some of todays numbers

658 MEL OOL 146 + 7 = 153
437 MEL ADL 73 + 7 = 80
489 MEL ADE 74 + 0 = 74
202 MEL BNE 87 + 8 = 95
258 MEL BNE 125 + 5 = 130
540 SYD OOL 67 + 8 = 75
616 MEL CBR 39 + 5 = 44
42 MEL SYD 77 + 4 = 81

Average 91.5
Business doing well 5.5 from 8 average

Sorry PopaJo but your predictions of a reality check this week ain't looking so good, even you would have to admit that these numbers are solid and trending up and at over 50% full, if this trend continues it won't be long before 70% will be achieved
What's QF/JQ got left in their arsenal ? Throw a couple of Q400s at Parkes, Narrandera or Moruya ?

[MickG0105]

Some of todays numbers

658 MEL OOL 146 + 7 = 153
437 MEL ADL 73 + 7 = 80
489 MEL ADE 74 + 0 = 74
202 MEL BNE 87 + 8 = 95
258 MEL BNE 125 + 5 = 130
540 SYD OOL 67 + 8 = 75
616 MEL CBR 39 + 5 = 44
42 MEL SYD 77 + 4 = 81

Average 91.5
Business doing well 5.5 from 8 average

Sorry PopaJo but your predictions of a reality check this week ain't looking so good, even you would have to admit that these numbers are solid and trending up and at over 50% full, if this trend continues it won't be long before 70% will be achieved
What's QF/JQ got left in their arsenal ? Throw a couple of Q400s at Parkes, Narrandera or Moruya ?
Business doing well?! If by "busy doing well" you mean continuing to lose money, then yeah, for sure. Week to now, they are averaging 43.5 percent loads between Sydney and Melbourne, and just over 50 percent for the overall jet network. That's loss making.

[Trevor the lover]

Get a life, all of you

[Icarus2001]

Originally Posted by Icarus2001 images/buttons/viewpost.gif (australia-new-zealand-pacific/648116-rex-celebrating-20-years-3.html#post11274785)
Lets be kind and say 90 pax for break even. How many break even flights in the last six months? What pointless question.

The question is very to the point. In fact the whole point of any business.

[PoppaJo]

Sorry PopaJo but your predictions of a reality check this week ain't looking so good, even you would have to admit that these numbers are solid and trending up and at over 50% full, if this trend continues it won't be long before 70% will be achieved
What's QF/JQ got left in their arsenal ? Throw a couple of Q400s at Parkes, Narrandera or Moruya ?
No I don’t think 18 months into the operation with corresponding numbers is a solid outcome.

[dr dre]

Some of todays numbers

Why just some of the flights? You need to compare all of them over at least a week (to a bound for daily variations) to judge current performance.

Business doing well 5.5 from 8 average

Using the Australian Frequent Flyer Forums as a source (Internet rumours but they seem fairly intelligent on that site) the J class upgrades are being given out for free to random passengers at the gate near boarding time as a promotional incentive to get more people aware of the J product. Very few if any Rex J passengers actually pay the price for a J ticket.

Sorry PopaJo but your predictions of a reality check this week ain't looking so good, even you would have to admit that these numbers are solid and trending up and at over 50% full, if this trend continues it won't be long before 70% will be achieved


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/640x480/746dab5a_e24a_4f7c_a026_adbd8a7a6be9_d9c22a3dbea77401a4737b9 c06930732c194e6b8.jpeg

[Deano969]

The question is very to the point. In fact the whole point of any business.

Point being
Looking forward is important, not looking back
Why do you think they needed $150m to get up and running
Sure, they were trying to do a VB when Ansett collapsed and had to reimagine what plan B was when VA was reborn
If VA failed that $150m would have gone a very different direction, towards funding a massive surge in growth, but that did not happen
So implement plan B
Slower growth, prove the point of reliability, honesty, service and price. Build that and they will come
Slowly they are coming....
Flyers will happen upon REX either at their price point or if QF/JQ and VA are booked out or if a flight get canned
But, do they come back?
Totally get that they are not selling out just yet and the corks are still in the champagne bottles
But, if I owned REX, I'd be relatively pleased with with the way things are trending
Again, October or November I predict 70% give or take

Remember Icarus, it's not all about how your loads are in the first few months, it's where they are long term and sustained
REX have always held their own against Link in the past on shared routes like ex SYD to Wagga, Dubbo, Albury, Armidale etc so I have never had any doubt that the would match it up on mainline

[Deano969]

No I don’t think 18 months into the operation with corresponding numbers is a solid outcome.
You must be getting forgetful
Coronavirus
Lockdowns
Boarder closures
Fleet groundings

Seriously it was 1 false start in 2021 then really only kicked off in Feb 2022

You are grasping at straws Poppa

[Icarus2001]

Remember Icarus, it's not all about how your loads are in the first few months, it's where they are long term and sustained

Thanks for stating the bleeding obvious.

18 months in, not six months.

[MickG0105]

Using the Australian Frequent Flyer Forums as a source (Internet rumours but they seem fairly intelligent on that site) the J class upgrades are being given out for free to random passengers at the gate near boarding time as a promotional incentive to get more people aware of the J product. Very few if any Rex J passengers actually pay the price for a J ticket.

I'm not familiar with said forum but there's certainly something off with the J loads we're seeing. Comping a punter or two here and there would be one explanation. That can be a pernicious practice.

[MickG0105]

Thanks for stating the bleeding obvious.

18 months in, not six months.
And let's not forget that no-one put a gun to their head. Their foray into jets was at the time of their choosing. I seem to recall someone from Rex telling anyone who'd listen that 'there has never been a better time to launch into the domestic aviation market in Australia.'

[Deano969]

And let's not forget that no-one put a gun to their head. Their foray into jets was at the time of their choosing. I seem to recall someone from Rex telling anyone who'd listen that 'there has never been a better time to launch into the domestic aviation market in Australia.'

VA put a gun to their head when they went busto
Did REX not interline on VA ?
Take VA away and Link would have had a massive advantage

[MickG0105]

VA put a gun to their head when they went busto
Did REX not interline on VA ?
Take VA away and Link would have had a massive advantage
What a load of nonsense. Do you think this stuff up yourself?

[dr dre]

And let's not forget that no-one put a gun to their head. Their foray into jets was at the time of their choosing. I seem to recall someone from Rex telling anyone who'd listen that 'there has never been a better time to launch into the domestic aviation market in Australia.'

For Sharp it was probably true - at that time his mates were in government and handing out money to him to start a domestic jet operation at a time when the current two operators were at 10% loads. So when he’s getting taxpayer money for nothing in return his statement was literally true - there has never been such a good time to launch in the domestic market as there was then.

[Deano969]

What a load of nonsense. Do you think this stuff up yourself?

https://www.smh.com.au/national/virgin-blue-rex-join-forces-20030610-gdgwpa.html

Can't find much other proof
But if VA closed, who would they interline with QF?

As I said, that would have left QF/Link with a sizable over REX, so yes, they had no choice

[MickG0105]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/virgin-blue-rex-join-forces-20030610-gdgwpa.html

Can't find much other proof
But if VA closed, who would they interline with QF?

As I said, that would have left QF/Link with a sizable over REX, so yes, they had no choice
It's difficult to say whether that is the most stupid thing you've written because, well, the competition is torrid. Just think about what you're trying to argue here - you're saying that Rex had no choice but to get into domestic jet operations because if VA folded then they would have to interline with QF. Leaving aside the fact that at no point did VA cease flying during the administration, and there were no shortage of suitors for VA, just how big do you think Rex's interline sales with Virgin were anyway, to the extent that any agreement was even in place subsequent to VARA coming into being. It's just complete and utter piffle what you're suggesting. Rex made zero mention of anything even vaguely along those lines when it outlined its case for getting into jets.

Separately, Rex managed 43.1 percent loads today between Sydney and Melbourne; 55.6 percent across the jet network for the day.

[Deano969]

It's difficult to say whether that is the most stupid thing you've written because, well, the competition is torrid. Just think about what you're trying to argue here - you're saying that Rex had no choice but to get into domestic jet operations because if VA folded then they would have to interline with QF. Leaving aside the fact that at no point did VA cease flying during the administration, and there were no shortage of suitors for VA, just how big do you think Rex's interline sales with Virgin were anyway, to the extent that any agreement was even in place subsequent to VARA coming into being. It's just complete and utter piffle what you're suggesting. Rex made zero mention of anything even vaguely along those lines when it outlined its case for getting into jets.

Separately, Rex managed 43.1 percent loads today between Sydney and Melbourne; 55.6 percent across the jet network for the day.

So Mick, are you saying that at no time was there any chance of VA shutting down?
That is totally incorrect at one point it was 50/50
I never said that the reason REX got into jet ops because of potentially losing VA's interline, as I said earlier, they thought VA was gonski, but the interline thing was also a factor and let me tell you, jet ops were on the table way before 2020...

[Deano969]

Separately, Rex managed 43.1 percent loads today between Sydney and Melbourne; 55.6 percent across the jet network for the day.

Let's have a look at today down back only
658 MEL OOL 153
437 MEL ADL 95
489 MEL ADL 100
202 MEL BNE 108
258 MEL BNE 135
540 SYD OOL 146
616 MEL CBR 80
328 SYD BNE 123
348 SYD BNE 142
384 SYD BNE 98
018 MEL SYD 51
042 MEL SYD 104
102 MEL SYD 122
152 MEL SYD 93
182 MEL SYD 91
Average 109.4 plus whatever up front
65% plus business
61% MEL SYD
Add to this 15 return sectors so fleet utilisation is reasonably high

70% break even ?
Not far away
Even REX are saying early 2023 to break even....

I hope they have plenty more frames on order as both QF/JQ and VA struggle with on time performance and no guarantee you check in luggage arrives at your destination
As for slots at SYD, no worries there as QF/JQ and VA cut back flights as REX expands, there will be plenty available
The people are getting a taste of REX and are liking what they see and rebooking

[Ladloy]

Let's have a look at today down back only
658 MEL OOL 153
437 MEL ADL 95
489 MEL ADL 100
202 MEL BNE 108
258 MEL BNE 135
540 SYD OOL 146
616 MEL CBR 80
328 SYD BNE 123
348 SYD BNE 142
384 SYD BNE 98
018 MEL SYD 51
042 MEL SYD 104
102 MEL SYD 122
152 MEL SYD 93
182 MEL SYD 91
Average 109.4 plus whatever up front
65% plus business
61% MEL SYD
Add to this 15 return sectors so fleet utilisation is reasonably high

70% break even ?
Not far away
Even REX are saying early 2023 to break even....

I hope they have plenty more frames on order as both QF/JQ and VA struggle with on time performance and no guarantee you check in luggage arrives at your destination
As for slots at SYD, no worries there as QF/JQ and VA cut back flights as REX expands, there will be plenty available
The people are getting a taste of REX and are liking what they see and rebooking
well they better start paying their pilots above award because it's all good having airframes but it makes no difference if you can't crew them.

[smiling monkey]

Let's have a look at today down back only
658 MEL OOL 153
437 MEL ADL 95
489 MEL ADL 100
202 MEL BNE 108
258 MEL BNE 135
540 SYD OOL 146
616 MEL CBR 80
328 SYD BNE 123
348 SYD BNE 142
384 SYD BNE 98
018 MEL SYD 51
042 MEL SYD 104
102 MEL SYD 122
152 MEL SYD 93
182 MEL SYD 91
Average 109.4 plus whatever up front
65% plus business
61% MEL SYD
Add to this 15 return sectors so fleet utilisation is reasonably high

70% break even ?
Not far away
Even REX are saying early 2023 to break even....

I hope they have plenty more frames on order as both QF/JQ and VA struggle with on time performance and no guarantee you check in luggage arrives at your destination
As for slots at SYD, no worries there as QF/JQ and VA cut back flights as REX expands, there will be plenty available
The people are getting a taste of REX and are liking what they see and rebooking

I can only see that trend continuing with time as long as Jetstar continues to piss people off.

[SHVC]

Haha, you have not been around much in 20yrs then to make that comment about JQ. JQ loads still strong every sector I operate nothing under 170, today to ML not a seat to spare. I’ve mentioned before It’s easy not to loose a bag and have good OTP when you only have 6 frames. If Rex had 60 737s they would be no better than the current 3. Maybe Rex increase of late is just because ppl can’t get a seat on the other 3 and Rex are sloppy 4ths. Still, time will tell I don’t see them getting last 10-12 frames. Tiger mach2.0.

[smiling monkey]

20 years of pissing people off .. let's wait and see how much people will continue to stomach that .. hahaha

[SHVC]

Quick look at Rex social media, seems they have a lot of pi$$ed off people also lost bags, late all the same gripes as the other 3. Sure ppl will stomach that for another 20 of Rex?!. At least the other 3 don’t delete comments made on their social media un like Rex does.

[Wizofoz]

well they better start paying their pilots above award because it's all good having airframes but it makes no difference if you can't crew them.

They are. The new EBA is pretty good.

[TimmyTee]

They are. The new EBA is pretty good.

are you talking about the 737 ops eba? What’s the base salary for a cpt/fo?

[Ladloy]

They are. The new EBA is pretty good.
there's no EBA ratified yet?

[Gunner747400]

What's so good about it? Haven't seen really much detailed about what an FO would now be on etc.

[Wizofoz]

there's no EBA ratified yet?

Its imminent

[MickG0105]

Let's have a look at today down back only
658 MEL OOL 153
437 MEL ADL 95
489 MEL ADL 100
202 MEL BNE 108
258 MEL BNE 135
540 SYD OOL 146
616 MEL CBR 80
328 SYD BNE 123
348 SYD BNE 142
384 SYD BNE 98
018 MEL SYD 51
042 MEL SYD 104
102 MEL SYD 122
152 MEL SYD 93
182 MEL SYD 91
Average 109.4 plus whatever up front
65% plus business
61% MEL SYD
Add to this 15 return sectors so fleet utilisation is reasonably high

70% break even ?
Not far away
Even REX are saying early 2023 to break even....

I hope they have plenty more frames on order as both QF/JQ and VA struggle with on time performance and no guarantee you check in luggage arrives at your destination
As for slots at SYD, no worries there as QF/JQ and VA cut back flights as REX expands, there will be plenty available
The people are getting a taste of REX and are liking what they see and rebooking
You forgot ZL549 OOL-SYD with a grand total of 25 pax.

Today was the first day this week Rex managed to carry more than 1,000 pax on its 10 flights between Melbourne and Sydney for an aggregate LF of 59.8 percent. Even with that, SYD-MEL for the week so far is sitting at 47.8 percent LF, jet network is sitting at 55.2 percent.

[aussieflyboy]

They’re doing well considering they do virtually no advertising, no frequent flyer scheme and you don’t see them on the news everyday like the rat.

[Deano969]

You forgot ZL549 OOL-SYD with a grand total of 25 pax.

Today was the first day this week Rex managed to carry more than 1,000 pax on its 10 flights between Melbourne and Sydney for an aggregate LF of 59.8 percent. Even with that, SYD-MEL for the week so far is sitting at 47.8 percent LF, jet network is sitting at 55.2 percent.

OMG you found a flight with a poor load....

Fact is QF/JQ have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at REX
It's obvious they don't want a third carrier, just VA as a second which they can work with in the background
6 months since restart and loads between 55% and 60% is very encouraging for them and not to far off break even, if not already there at 60%

[MickG0105]

OMG you found a flight with a poor load....

It wasn't difficult, it was there in the data. Neatly illustrates why looking at all the data over a reasonably representative timeframe is important.


Add to this 15 return sectors so fleet utilisation is reasonably high

Getting 30 flights a day of around 1.6 hours average block time from a 6 aircraft fleet is not "reasonably high" utilisation. It's about 20 percent below where it should be.

6 months since restart ...6 months?! WTF are you talking about? The recovery in domestic aviation activity has been running largely unimpeded for over 12 months now. Activity has more than quadrupled over that period.

...70% break even ?

... not to far off break even, if not already there at 60%
​
Astounding that break even has shifted 10 points in the space of a couple of posts. Keep that up and soon Rex won't need any pax at all to be making money.

[PoppaJo]

Fact is QF/JQ have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at REX
It's obvious they don't want a third carrier, just VA as a second which they can work with in the background

I really don’t think they care. An operator who has no flights after 1230 on a Saturday from Tulla is hardly a threat. That’s not even a competitor. One flight a day into the Gold Coast. I mean what’s the point.

The fact is, Rex’ share will now start to head south as Jetstar adds 1 Neo a month, Virgin very soon also joining the once a month club.

[SHVC]

QF and JQ have not thrown everything at Rex either the kitchen is intact and sink where it belong no need to get!

[Deano969]

Numbers for today
Looking at one direction only, but just for Mick I will add 549 OOL-SYD
Yea it's Friday so numbers should be up...
658 MEL OOL 146
437 MEL ADL 124
489 MEL ADL 77
202 MEL BNE 131
258 MEL BNE 148
540 SYD OOL 129
616 MEL CBR 88
328 SYD BNE 104
348 SYD BNE 134
384 SYD BNE 103
018 MEL SYD 154
132 MEL SYD 158
152 MEL SYD 118
182 MEL SYD 103
549 OOL SYD 105
Average 122 + whatever up front 73% (that's on 168 economy) perhaps they made a bit today.....

Mick
30 @1.6hours? Maybe on MEL-CBR, allowing for 30 minutes turn around, REX is doing 61 hours per day, assuming all 6 flying, 10 hours per day each, perhaps this could be higher, but look at their on time performance verses QF, may be a better way to operate rather than having no give in the schedules

6 months?! WTF are you talking about? The recovery in domestic aviation activity has been running largely unimpeded for over 12 months now. Activity has more than quadrupled over that period
Looking back through rosy coloured glasses Mick
November 2020 first 737 delivered
March 2021 REX jet starts
April 2021 fleet now 6
July 2021 lockdowns and border closured
September 2021 REX suspends REX jet service due border closures and lockdowns
October 2021 restart begins
December 2021 Brisbane begins
So 9 months since restart and no airline kicked off with 100% of 2019 capacity

70% break even is reasonable, but for over a decade REX has been making a profit with well under this, perhaps 60%

And I bet they have paid more company tax than QF has over the past 10 years

[wishiwasupthere]

Is that you Sharpy?

[Fool Sufferer]

No it is BNEA320.

[MickG0105]

Numbers for today
Looking at one direction only, but just for Mick I will add 549 OOL-SYD ...

No need to add anything for me, I have access to the whole data set but thanks for the thought - it appears to be the only one applied to that post.


Mick
30 @1.6hours? Maybe on MEL-CBR, allowing for 30 minutes turn around, REX is doing 61 hours per day, assuming all 6 flying, 10 hours per day each, perhaps this could be higher, but look at their on time performance verses QF, may be a better way to operate rather than having no give in the schedules

Instead of embarrassing yourself here making inane statements see if you can find someone who works at an airline who can explain what block hours are. Based on Rex's current schedule they are clocking an aggregate of about 315 hours block time over 196 flights for the week. That's an average of 1.6 block hours per flight. Week days they have 30 flights a day, less on weekends.

With a bit of luck whoever explains block hours might also be able to explain to you how utilisation is calculated. Then you might grasp that Rex are currently under utilising their current fleet.


6 months?! WTF are you talking about? The recovery in domestic aviation activity has been running largely unimpeded for over 12 months now. Activity has more than quadrupled over that period
Looking back through rosy coloured glasses Mick

No, looking at data. You should try it some time.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1611x801/screenshot_20220812_202531_chrome_1508deb9cccaf144d580c3ce98 b7ff4b51ce7d10.jpg



70% break even is reasonable, but for over a decade REX has been making a profit with well under this, perhaps 60%

Reasonable based on what. What's your rationale for making that statement?

You break even when your revenue matches your costs. The cost base for owned, 25 year old turboprops operating in and out of regional strips is markedly different to leased jets flying in and out of major airports. That cost difference alone will shift the break even point given as load factor. I suspect that a 10 year old would probably grasp that.

In any event, one minute you were saying a 70 percent load factor was the break-even point, a day later you had that down to 60 percent. You appear to have NFI what you are talking about ... and you appear that way routinely on a very wide and expanding range of topics.


And I bet they have paid more company tax than QF has over the past 10 years
And speaking of that wide and expanding range of topics you have NFI about, let's add corporate taxation to the list.

I'll take that bet. What are you putting up as your stake?

You seem determined to continually better yourself in the most stupid statement of the day stakes. Of some concern is that it wouldn't have taken you 20 minutes of skimming through annual reports to determine that Qantas paid more than three times as much in company tax in just one year, FY19, than Rex has paid in aggregate over the past 10 years.

You couldn't have expended even that amount of effort to avoid coming across as an idiot?

[Deano969]

Thanks for attaching the graph to tour post Mick
Totally backs up my point and discredits yours

By your own graph we have not been running 12 months unimpeded
We are in August 2022
By your graph we bottomed out in August 2021 at around 20% of 2019
Nov-Dec barely made it to 50% pre-covid and REX jet still grounded
This 50% remained for 2 months due to the beginning of omicron propped up by the holidays
This 50% lagged through February
March to August saw the main recovery which is 6 months :rolleyes:

And as for activity quadrupling when you are coming of such a depressed base, that is no surprise

As for break even
REX has continually stated that their 737 operating costs are lower that even JQ
What their actual break even is I really don't know, but 70% would be close to the mark

[TimmyTee]

And as for your statement about company tax paid?

[SHVC]

Seeing you’re in the know, what’s JQ operating cost? Rex wouldn’t know what JQ operating cost anymore than they would know what powerball numbers will be on Thursday night.

but, I’d love to know as it would really help us out for data compilation to the company with current discussions.

[Australopithecus]

I am guessing that since Rex pays lower wages to crew and obviously don’t have a marketing department then their costs would be lower. I recall some initial crowing from Sharpe about low lease costs too, but that likely isn’t the case now.

[MickG0105]

Thanks for attaching the graph to tour post Mick
Totally backs up my point and discredits yours

By your own graph we have not been running 12 months unimpeded

I should have anticipated that reconciling words and pictures might have been a stretch for you. Just to be clear, I didn't say that the recovery had "been running 12 months unimpeded"; what I said previously was that the recovery in domestic aviation activity has been running largely unimpeded for 12 months now.

What that graph shows is that since the nadir in passenger numbers in August last year, for the significant majority of the past 12 months we have seen improving passenger numbers month-on-month (ie an ongoing recovery in domestic aviation activity). There have been just two months - February and May this year - where passenger numbers went backwards (ie where the recovery was impeded). In other words, over the past twelve months, the recovery in passengers numbers has been largely unimpeded. And that graph illustrates that point.


As for break even
REX has continually stated that their 737 operating costs are lower that even JQ
What their actual break even is I really don't know, but 70% would be close to the mark
Again, why do you think 70 percent would be close to the mark? Where do you think Jetstar's break-even point is?

Forbes looked at this for a handful of US airlines last year; Southwest's break-even was around 72.5 percent. IATA looked at this in 2020 when social distancing proposals were going to significantly impact achievable load factors; the average break-even load factor across a sample of 122 airlines was 77 percent. Only 18 or so of the 122 sample broke even at 70 percent or less.

And just by the bye, Rex stating something, particularly continually, is probably a good indication that it is likely not correct. We know that Rex pays their crews less than Jetstar. It is highly unlikely that Rex is paying less for fuel than Jetstar.

If Rex can break-even with 70 percent loads I'd be surprised. Apart from anything else, that would put them in the top quintile of operators globally, essentially best-in-class. Do they strike you as a best-in-class operator? In any event, for the week just gone to Friday, they weren't even managing 60 percent for their jet ops.


Separately, where are we at with that bet on corporate taxes?

[Deano969]

Mick in what world, where REX suspends jet ops for 3 months, border closures, lockdowns and omicron surge, is this a largely unimpeded period?
Your graph from August to October a mere 20% of per covid was achieved
Your graph shows that by December we had not even hit 50% of pre covid, hardly ideal operating conditions
Your graph shows a decline in January and February, which you have begrudgingly conceded, and we are still under 50%
Your graph shows that by April we are getting closer to normality at around 80%

For some strange reason on an earlier post you have implied massive growth of 400% over this period, not growth Mick, recovery, big difference

As for break even, few really know what that numbers really is
Obviously for the likes of SW this number would be higher being a LCC over a lean legacy carrier, but it's good that you have conceded that there are plenty breaking even at 70% or less
Being new to jet ops, REX does not have the baggage of older legacy carriers and as they have come in clean sheet, for example, they would not have had to worry about converting to outsourced ground handling or maintenance as this would have been the case from the get go, nor would they have old expensive leases trailing off
So yes, being in the top percentile is very likely where they are at

Do they strike me as being best in class?
They are in OTP
They are in passenger experience
They are in value for money
They say that they are on efficiency
No FFPs and lounges a bit average on the downside

Taxes? remember 2013s multi billion dollar loss/write-down then for years after no tax on profits

[SHVC]

If they were anything less than the best with OTP operating only 6 jets, Rex would have a serious problem. Let’s see their OTP and experience if they ever get over 11 jets. Still, no can seem to answer their biggest looming problem slots into SY?! This time next yr I’m sure international will be back 100% and not a slot to spare.

[MickG0105]

Mick in what world, where REX suspends jet ops for 3 months, border closures, lockdowns and omicron surge, is this a largely unimpeded period?
Your graph from August to October a mere 20% of per covid was achieved
Your graph shows that by December we had not even hit 50% of pre covid, hardly ideal operating conditions
Your graph shows a decline in January and February, which you have begrudgingly conceded, and we are still under 50%
Your graph shows that by April we are getting closer to normality at around 80%

The recovery in passenger numbers since the low point in August last year has been largely unimpeded. That is evident from the data. The point remains that domestic activity improved month-on-month with the exception of two months in that entire period. The recovery, as evidenced in the passenger numbers, has been largely unimpeded over the past 12 months.

The fact that Rex navigated that recovery poorly is a testament to their poor management.

For some strange reason on an earlier post you have implied massive growth of 400% over this period, not growth Mick, recovery, big difference
I didn't say growth, I said,
Activity has more than quadrupled over that period.

​​​​​​And I very specifically used the word "recovery" (... the recovery in domestic aviation activity ...) when referring to the last 12 months.


As for break even, few really know what that numbers really is
Obviously for the likes of SW this number would be higher being a LCC over a lean legacy carrier, but it's good that you have conceded that there are plenty breaking even at 70% or less
Being new to jet ops, REX does not have the baggage of older legacy carriers and as they have come in clean sheet, for example, they would not have had to worry about converting to outsourced ground handling or maintenance as this would have been the case from the get go, nor would they have old expensive leases trailing off
So yes, being in the top percentile is very likely where they are at

I did not say that "there are plenty breaking even at 70% or less". I said that IATA found that out of 122 airlines they looked at, less than 15 percent had a break-even point at 70 percent.

And just by the bye, the legacy carriers in the Forbes study - American, Delta and United - all had higher break-even load factors than Southwest.

And Rex, in the top ten percent of airlines from around the world?! Seriously? Today, on one of the busiest air routes in the world, they finished flying before lunch. With a fleet of six jets they will mount 19 flights today. None of that is consistent with a top decile operator.


Taxes? remember 2013s multi billion dollar loss/write-down then for years after no tax on profits
Gee, having previously referred you to annual reports do you think that it is even vaguely likely that I haven't factored that in? The accrued tax benefits from the QF losses were completely expended by FY18. As I said previously, for FY19, Qantas paid more than three times as much in corporate tax as Rex had paid in aggregate for the last ten years.

How about this? Either put up or shut up on your inane tax bet. If you think you're right, just post the data. If you're right, I won't post on this thread again. If you're wrong, you don't post on this thread again. How's that?

[Deano969]

QF paid $253 million in 2019
Nothing from 2013-2018
$42.16 million p/a
REX paid between $2 and $3 million per year over this period
Pro rata REX fleet over this period was 50 odd SAABs for 1700 available seats
Where as QF/JQ
A330 200 4698 seats
A330 300 2970 seats
A380 800 5640 seats
737 800 13000 odd seats
Plus maybe 3000 in 747s
JQ
58 odd A320/321 10500
11 787 8 3600
+ QLink Network and NJS say another 10000
Total carrying capacity around 54,000

So being over 30 x larger by carrying capacity REX pro-rata (even on $2million p/a) would have paid over $360million verses QF/JQs $253million
Gotta compare apples with apples

Or
For 5 out of 6 years REX did pay more than QF/JQ as QF/JQ paid no corporate tax what so ever

[Ladloy]

QF paid $253 million in 2019
Nothing from 2013-2018
$42.16 million p/a
REX paid between $2 and $3 million per year over this period
Pro rata REX fleet over this period was 50 odd SAABs for 1700 available seats
Where as QF/JQ
A330 200 4698 seats
A330 300 2970 seats
A380 800 5640 seats
737 800 13000 odd seats
Plus maybe 3000 in 747s
JQ
58 odd A320/321 10500
11 787 8 3600
+ QLink Network and NJS say another 10000
Total carrying capacity around 54,000

So being over 30 x larger by carrying capacity REX pro-rata (even on $2million p/a) would have paid over $360million verses QF/JQs $253million
Gotta compare apples with apples

Or
For 5 out of 6 years REX did pay more than QF/JQ as QF/JQ paid no corporate tax what so ever
Can we do the same but with government handouts over covid?

[PoppaJo]

Everything we talk about is void if the Singaporean’s wish to p!ss cash down the drain for the next decade. They have a good history of doing that here. What should sink this is poor performance over many years, what will probably sink it is high fuel prices or something later down the track that gives a management a chance to save face.

[43Inches]

God, people getting all antsy over whether the Rex startup is losing money or not. Who cares, its barely out of its second year and numbers are obviously improving, slowly but definitely on the up, which means return business and possibly profitability in the future. The last year of airline business loads mean just about nothing, we have no idea who's paying cash and who's just using the credits. The QF group refused refunds so they have a massive backlog of flight credits, some worth tens of thousands that customers are using up, VA would have similar liabilities. Rex was one of the few that allowed refunds in lieu of credits. This issue of using up credits will affect loads for the next year or two to come for the large players. At least there's a good chance that most passengers on a Rex flight are actually paying for it and not using credits, loyalty points or anything in between. Once those credits are funneled out of the system passengers will exercise more choice with who they fly with, then we'll get a real idea of who's the preferred airline in Australia. Throw in a multitude of other things and Rex is probably doing OK given the situation, from what I hear of the SAAB operation its been overloaded across the network with full flights regularly, which is not the norm, as said before typical large profit LFs of around 50-60% as per the financials.

PS I've heard of a heap of QF credits for international flights around $10k, where they have decided to can the overseas travel and are just whittling the amount away on domestic flights, if that gives some idea how long these credits might be filling seats.

[MickG0105]

QF paid $253 million in 2019
Nothing from 2013-2018
$42.16 million p/a
REX paid between $2 and $3 million per year over this period
Pro rata REX fleet over this period was 50 odd SAABs for 1700 available seats
Where as QF/JQ
A330 200 4698 seats
A330 300 2970 seats
A380 800 5640 seats
737 800 13000 odd seats
Plus maybe 3000 in 747s
JQ
58 odd A320/321 10500
11 787 8 3600
+ QLink Network and NJS say another 10000
Total carrying capacity around 54,000

So being over 30 x larger by carrying capacity REX pro-rata (even on $2million p/a) would have paid over $360million verses QF/JQs $253million
Gotta compare apples with apples

Or
For 5 out of 6 years REX did pay more than QF/JQ as QF/JQ paid no corporate tax what so ever
You said,

And I bet they have paid more company tax than QF has over the past 10 years

The unequivocal fact of the matter is that Rex have not paid more company tax than QF has over the past 10 years. End of story.

Now you're trying to crab walk your way away from your bet with a weasel-worded response. As pathetic as it is shameless. There are few things worse than people who can't be taken at their word.

[transition_alt]

Mick, regardless of who you agree with, or who is right or wrong, I don’t think you should be insulting someone constantly.

I believe a moderator should be having a word to you regarding your choice of words. It’s ineffective.

[MickG0105]

Mick, regardless of who you agree with, or who is right or wrong, I don’t think you should be insulting someone constantly.

I believe a moderator should be having a word to you regarding your choice of words. It’s ineffective.
Fair enough.

[Deano969]

Some of todays numbers

MEL OOL
REX 658 = 97
VA average 145

MEL ADL
REX 437 121
REX 489 127
REX average 124
VA average 131

MEL BNE
REX 258 133
VA average 143

SYD OOL
REX 540 80
VA average 127

MEL CBR
REX 616 119
VA average 128

SYD BNE
REX 348 129
REX 384 121
REX average 125
VA average 127

MEL SYD
REX 018 168
REX 042 143
REX 102 130
REX 152 121
REX 182 115
REX average 135.4
VA average 130.6

Economy only
REX outbound average for today 123 = 73%
VA average same routes 133 = 80%

Note that REX had a better load factor on MEL-SYD than VA

So if VA are doing well, REX is closing the gap

Some are saying that low frequency is a negative for REX so one can only be confident that as they grow their fleet, their loads will also grow
Others are saying that REX are only getting good loads from spill over as QF/JQ and VA sell out, well VA are certainly not selling out
I would have put up QF loads, but can't get my head around all the blocked seats on their flights...

Conclusion
Only 7% difference between REX and VA on same routes
Or 11 bums on seats average per flight
I'd reckon the champagne is now on ice ready to be opened

[PoppaJo]

The data you are posting is completely inaccurate until the flight has actually departed. So your claims are not valid.

Virgin has a average of about 95% between 6-9am this morning.

So your statement that Rex has better loads vs Virgin on MEL-SYD is actually false.

[Deano969]

The data you are posting is completely inaccurate until the flight has actually departed. So your claims are not valid.

Virgin has a average of about 95% between 6-9am this morning.

So your statement that Rex has better loads vs Virgin on MEL-SYD is actually false.

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

But as the day drags on seats are filling, correct
REX loads on MEL-SYD are now 162 161 135 136 117 average 142.2 = 84%

Outbound average for the day across the network now stands at 129.1 = 77%

REX first 2 loads MEL-SYD 162 and 161 = 161.5 = 96% which pips VA by 1%
And all business sold out on both flights as well

Who'd have thought that that REX would be out doing VA on MEL-SYD, even if it were just for today, given the ramblings and predictions of doom just a couple of months ago from the likes of PoppaJo and Mick

[43Inches]

Why are you still comparing Rex vs VA or QF, VA and QF have a massive backlog of credits to process, so bums on seats means absolutely nothing. This is probably why QF and VA have a massive cancellation rate and are combining flights as the revenue came in for them 2 years ago and they are trying to stem losses by putting as many on each flight rather than running flights that are essentially not making any new revenue. Rex allowed refunds early on with light loads anyway, so would have very few credit seats. If Rex is already matching VA on seats on load factors well that is a good thing for Rex, but really says nothing about yields. Rex is obviously on a long game here as are the other players, its not some solo startup like previous entrants, its evolving and being tweaked as it grows with already a few partners and an established regional feeder, which is doing extremely well at present. Everybody is going to have a crunch in the next few years due to crewing issues, assuming the economy doesn't imploded from inflation, and that wont only effect Rex, so who knows what will happen over the next 5 years.

[Deano969]

43 raises an excellent point
I did see VA had a cancellation on MEL-SYD today, helping consolidate their loads and giving an artificially high load factor
REX did a great thing for their customers during covid by offering full refunds instead of vouchers

So if new booking are to be counted only, then REX numbers are kinda looking even better
I guess you could also extrapolate that thousands of truckies spending $2000 per week on diesel at BP and earning $1000 per year QFFPs are also filling a ton of seats

REX can't be far off launching their own FFPs scheme right...

[MickG0105]

For those interested in actual data here are the comparative figures for VA and Rex despatched flights MEL-SYD as at 10.30am:

VA803 171 (163Y, 8J)
VA819 174 (166Y, 8J)
VA829 173 (165Y, 8J)
VA833 176 (168Y, 8J)
LF = 98.6%

ZL018 170 (8J, 162Y)
ZL034 169 (8J, 161Y)
LF = 96.3%

For the numerically challenged, 98.6 is greater than 96.3.

[PoppaJo]

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

But as the day drags on seats are filling, correct
REX loads on MEL-SYD are now 162 161 135 136 117 average 142.2 = 84%

Outbound average for the day across the network now stands at 129.1 = 77%

REX first 2 loads MEL-SYD 162 and 161 = 161.5 = 96% which pips VA by 1%
And all business sold out on both flights as well

Who'd have thought that that REX would be out doing VA on MEL-SYD, even if it were just for today, given the ramblings and predictions of doom just a couple of months ago from the likes of PoppaJo and Mick
My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.

All were checked around the same time so apples for apples
So far I am still 100% correct that REX is doing better than VA from Melbourne to Sydney

If half the flight has not checked in, and the other flight has, then no, its apples for pineapples.

[SHVC]

I would take a punt that VA and even QF/JQ cancelations major reason for cancelations is not to consolidate it would be more than likely be crewing/staffing issues with COVID. Even if you’re a close contact you can not attend as a pilot/cabin crew that’s at JQ anyway that is the rule.

Rex only have 6 jets and is pretty much at capacity with their SY flights as they don’t have slots and can not transfer their SAAB slots for 73 use. Rex will need to start getting creative maybe WLM instead of SY. Also their J class might be full but means nothing when it is offered as a free upgrade on a $100 economy ticket, I know first hand, so that would make it a loss making seat.

[Mr_App]

I do have it on good authority that Rex ground staff are to upgrade all vacant Business seats to other passengers, for free.

That’s important for the record when Management come out claiming 100% J class loadings or some BS.

[43Inches]

Rex will need to start getting creative maybe WLM instead of SY.

Low likelihood of that, I hear there's a lot of on carriage from the regional network already so that would not work ex secondaries like WLM or AV. They will be hoping they can somehow snag some peak slots eventually, maybe when Badgeries opens and takes some internationals out of the loop. Part of QFs 60% line in the sand is also to justify its lion share of slots, so if they start to slip on that the ACCC might be moved to intervene to force access for competition, unlikely but stranger things.... Melbourne was smart to keep itself free of fixed slots, so as the mix of competition changes they can change who gets what % of slots to fit, QF will definitely lose out there as the others expand, unless they want to keep dumping capacity. This is definitely a major driver of offered flights vs combined into Sydney and Melbourne. Offer 20 flights a day to block up slots, operate 10-15 on rationalisation, however that was pre-planned. This was happening pre-covid with midday slots, there was ghost flights that almost never ran on some days.

[Deano969]

For those interested in actual data here are the comparative figures for VA and Rex despatched flights MEL-SYD as at 10.30am:

VA803 171 (163Y, 8J)
VA819 174 (166Y, 8J)
VA829 173 (165Y, 8J)
VA833 176 (168Y, 8J)
LF = 98.6%

ZL018 170 (8J, 162Y)
ZL034 169 (8J, 161Y)
LF = 96.3%

For the numerically challenged, 98.6 is greater than 96.3.

Yeah so I was going off PoppaJo's flawed numbers VA around 95% I assumed he had his numbers right

[Deano969]

My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.


If half the flight has not checked in, and the other flight has, then no, its apples for pineapples.

Prediction 1
Current 6, 1 due, 2 on order the rest will depend on your prediction number 2
Prediction 2
LF today 80% and climbing I would think that will be a profit
LF Saturday 75%+ likely a profit
LF Friday 74%+ likely another profit
Prediction 3
Well that is between REX and it's employees, are you confident Poppa that mainline will stay under QF? There is a good chance that the shiny new 220s and 230/21s could be flown NJS, NWK or even JQ, reckon that would make employees very happy and as for VA, there doesn't seem to be many happy drivers there either

[Deano969]

Rex only have 6 jets and is pretty much at capacity with their SY flights as they don’t have slots and can not transfer their SAAB slots for 73 use.

Not quite true
Remember back when East West had a crack at busting the 2 airline agreement
They were not allowed on the triangle, so they started running SYD-ABX-MEL and SYD-OOL-BNE
REX could quite easily do the same until SWA opens
SYD-ABX-MEL
SYD-CFS-BNE
Not ideal, but gets the job done and they already have slots for their SAABs

[MickG0105]

Yeah so I was going off PoppaJo's flawed numbers VA around 95% I assumed he had his numbers right
https://youtu.be/fbMKjLe-RFA

[SHVC]

I do have it on good authority that Rex ground staff are to upgrade all vacant Business seats to other passengers, for free.

That’s important for the record when Management come out claiming 100% J class loadings or some BS.

Like I mentioned, seen it first hand. So everybody assumption on J class is flawed. The numbers will be way off, I would be 99% positive those seats will be loss making.

[43Inches]

My predictions of doom stand. They won't be getting to 30 aircraft. It will never make money and they will never look after the employees. That's my opinion, your entitled to your own.

Better ask the QLink pilot body how they felt about being forcibly re-based a few years back (pre covid) and now how the whole southern pilot body took a pay cut to fly the -200/300s. Then there's the awful EBA they signed on for, the lack of respect in upgrading QLink pilots, very poor treatment if you make a mistake and so on. Rex management look like fluffy bunnies compared to what QF have been doing to its pilot workforce the last decade. At least Rex is mostly talk and hot air, vs the actual issues going on at QF and VA the last few years. If the latest Rex EBA gets up the QLink pilots will be asking questions of management for sure.

[ACMS]

Nup, I’ve seen the flights, been on the flights, the people in J class weren’t upgraded and it was full.
All the Men and Women in J class were NOT upgraded from Y class, you can easily see that from their demeanor and the way they were dressed. A lot are frequent flyers.

A lot of idiots in here hoping Rex goes under, maybe for their own selfish reasons I don’t know.

A lot of you wouldn’t know your ass from your elbow.

Back to QF JQ or VA for you, worry about your own problems……there’s a few.

No soup for you.

[PoppaJo]

ACMS are you seriously telling me that there is a business case for 30 737s to be thrown on domestic? You wonder why nobody has faith in this? Because it’s not possible. Unless you can tell me how it can be done? I mean go and double our population tomorrow and for sure.

[ACMS]

I never said that or agreed to someone else saying that did I.

I’m just sick and tired of all the crap I see in here from people with agendas and ulterior motives keen to destroy good peoples jobs.

ACMS are you seriously telling me that there is a business case for 30 737s to be thrown on domestic? You wonder why nobody has faith in this? Because it’s not possible. Unless you can tell me how it can be done? I mean go and double our population tomorrow and for sure.

[ACMS]

Like I mentioned, seen it first hand. So everybody assumption on J class is flawed. The numbers will be way off, I would be 99% positive those seats will be loss making.


yeah sure, like half of the punters in QF 737 domestic aren’t staff on leisure travel or duty travel. Many times I’ve travelled QF and over half the seats were NOT full fare J pax……Pilots, flight attendants in uniform swamp J class a lot.

come on, do better.

[Australopithecus]

ACMS, no one really wants to see Rex fail, but most of us have seen this kind of wacky business plan before.

What I would like to see is Rex T & Cs improve dramatically. An airline flying 737s for **** money just puts downward pressure on the rest of us.

[PoppaJo]

I’m just sick and tired of all the crap I see in here from people with agendas and ulterior motives keen to destroy good peoples jobs.
Right, so the same will be said about Bonza in a year or two when its fantasy business plan falls over, if it even gets up. Nobody asked them to start some wacko business model, yet when it collapses or moves onto Plan B,C, D, we are shot down if we question it? Soooo...they are giving good people jobs....how about we look after each other....Hmm..no they are destroying this profession with terrible contracts alongside destroying families when "the time comes". If you looked closely at its planned operating model and contracts, it is in the best interest of this industry if it actually never gets up. Thousands of people and families will be spared.

The best way forward to not destroy good people's jobs, is for these time wasting, family destroying operations to not exist at all. Just remember what Sharpy said to the media, "We are going to rip away all those entitlements those Pilots have built up over the years, 10% below Jetstar". Now with an attitude like that, I hope it falls over tomorrow, zero place within this industry for operations like that.

[Deano969]

ACMS are you seriously telling me that there is a business case for 30 737s to be thrown on domestic? You wonder why nobody has faith in this? Because it’s not possible. Unless you can tell me how it can be done? I mean go and double our population tomorrow and for sure.

Seriously Poppa?
Trying to compare like for like below

LAX-SFO 32 flights per day 6 carriers
SYD-MEL 70 flights per day 4 carriers including JQ

LAX-DEN 18 flights per day 4 carriers
MEL-BNE 29 flights per day 4 carriers including JQ

LAX-BOS 15 flights trans continental 4 carriers
MEL-PER 15 flights trans continental 3 carriers including JQ

BOS-MIA 11 flights per day 4 carriers
MEL-OOL 18 flights per day 4 carriers including JQ

Yea, if QF/JQ did not have a 60% monopoly, then absolutely Australia has the population to support more than 2 carriers and an offshoot LCC

[Deano969]

Right, so the same will be said about Bonza in a year or two when its fantasy business plan falls over, if it even gets up. Nobody asked them to start some wacko business model, yet when it collapses or moves onto Plan B,C, D, we are shot down if we question it? Soooo...they are giving good people jobs....how about we look after each other....Hmm..no they are destroying this profession with terrible contracts alongside destroying families when "the time comes". If you looked closely at its planned operating model and contracts, it is in the best interest of this industry if it actually never gets up. Thousands of people and families will be spared.

The best way forward to not destroy good people's jobs, is for these time wasting, family destroying operations to not exist at all. Just remember what Sharpy said to the media, "We are going to rip away all those entitlements those Pilots have built up over the years, 10% below Jetstar". Now with an attitude like that, I hope it falls over tomorrow, zero place within this industry for operations like that.

Me thinks Poppa is living back in the 80s when the 2 airline agreement protectionism was in full swing and fare were between $200 and $500 SYD-MEL or $1200-$2000 in todays money

[PoppaJo]

No I’ve just worked a few hundred people who have had careers and families destroyed by fantasy business models. Perhaps you could start a new airline for us with your grand plans and I’ll come take a job with you, sounds like you will be able to provide me with a very long and stable career.

[Deano969]

No I’ve just worked a few hundred people who have had careers and families destroyed by fantasy business models. Perhaps you could start a new airline for us with your grand plans and I’ll come take a job with you, sounds like you will be able to provide me with a very long and stable career.

Again PoppaJo long stable careers are a thing of the past, time to move forward
Where are the so called long stable careers in aviation?
Ansett had a long life but went busto
Even QF you can't say long and stable, what with JST, NJS, NWK, EAQ, SSQ and EFA all being run as separate entities to lower costs
May as well throw UTY into the mix if Qantas gobbles them up

Look PoppaJo, let's be honest...
Since the protectionist 2 airline agreement ended there has been a steady stream of airlines trying to get a foothold in Australia
Until now they have all been bullied into bankruptcy by mainly QF and to a lesser extend AN and VB/VA in an effort to satisfy their shareholders by protecting market share at a significant cost through price wars and promotions

I say until now because REX started with a substantial footprint and are lean plus they have some financial backing, they have taken the fight to Qantas and are still standing, even looking promising and although the war of words from Sharpie may sound like whinging, many of his points are valid
Even if Qantas can quash REX jet, there will be another willing to take their place and another and another, because in any industry when one player holds 60% market share, they are vulnerable

Poppa, Aviation is evolving and there will be a steady parade of start ups and failures, even legacy carriers that have 60+ years of operations are failing, it's time to get with the times and shop around for your best path forward

[SHVC]

yeah sure, like half of the punters in QF 737 domestic aren’t staff on leisure travel or duty travel. Many times I’ve travelled QF and over half the seats were NOT full fare J pax……Pilots, flight attendants in uniform swamp J class a lot.

come on, do better.

I never said QF business class was making actual seat price on sale. I posted only about Rex and that Rex Business class numbers are flawed because they’re giving free upgrades and/or seats. I will do better in the sense I do agree with you that QF business class is full of staff paxing then a full paying customer for that seat and then commercial upgrades request followed by staff traveler. Oh yeah the staff travel how is that at Rex haha!

[PoppaJo]

I am all for sustainable competition. I am not all for wacko business plans. I think there is room for someone to replace Tiger and do a better job at it, they had significant Sydney slots, just terrible management with poor fleet choices. Jetstar is a strong business because Tiger was weak. Bonza should really be doing what Tiger did, and bigger, then taking on the Star. But...

I don't think Mildura to Sunny Coast is the answer nor is another premium player.

The market wants more low cost competition on the main leisure routes. Have you seen Cairns lately? Going nuts. Rex nowhere in sight and Bonza should really be calling the Far north home. That will start to hit Jetstar and provide competition. Flying 50 punters mid week around the triangle is a waste of time.

[SHVC]

It will all boil down to whether the market prefers the LCC model or a cheap full service model. If it's the latter, then it's just a matter of time before the competition begins to take some of the market share. Not all, but enough to make an impact so that JQ will actually have to start delivering better service.

I don’t think the Australian public even know what a LCC, cheap full service (that’s actually first time I’ve heard that brand) or full fare market is, let’s be honest here. I’ve seen ppl spend $100 on beers and food with out batting an eye lid at airports however soon as their $40 SY-ML flight is 20mn late all hell breaks loose. People want all cream and toppings but only paying enough for the cake mix.

[Deano969]

Flying 50 punters mid week around the triangle is a waste of time.

Really Jo you are sticking to 50 eh.....
Plenty of evidence to the contrary
I'll throw some numbers for Wednesday this week so you can eat your words
Whilst the numbers below are not the final count as some seats had not been allocated, it surely disproves your estimates
Outbound average economy seats
Thursday average 109.4 (lowest number 51 ZL 18)
Friday average 122.4 (lowest number 77 ZL 489)
Saturday average 121.3 (lowest number 51 ZL 616)
Sunday 131.2 (lowest number 94 ZL 540)
Today so far with some still to be allocated 109.8 (lowest number 65 ZL 182 at the moment)

Where is your claimed 50 seats Jo ?

Just in comparison the remainder of VA MEL-SYD today has an average of 99.9 (lowest 47)

[Gunner747400]

Really Jo you are sticking to 50 eh.....
Plenty of evidence to the contrary
I'll throw some numbers for Wednesday this week so you can eat your words
Whilst the numbers below are not the final count as some seats had not been allocated, it surely disproves your estimates
Outbound average economy seats
Thursday average 109.4 (lowest number 51 ZL 18)
Friday average 122.4 (lowest number 77 ZL 489)
Saturday average 121.3 (lowest number 51 ZL 616)
Sunday 131.2 (lowest number 94 ZL 540)
Today so far with some still to be allocated 109.8 (lowest number 65 ZL 182 at the moment)

Where is your claimed 50 seats Jo ?

Just in comparison the remainder of VA MEL-SYD today has an average of 99.9 (lowest 47)

....and what about tomorrow's numbers Deano? They look pretty abysmal to me, doubt they would be making any money.

ZL9 SYDMEL 62
ZL328 SYDBNE 59
ZL31 SYDMEL 85
ZL540 SYDOOL 39
ZL348 SYDBNE 92
ZL125 SYDMEL 85
ZL141 SYDMEL 78
ZL384 SYDBNE 60
ZL161 SYDMEL 61

[Deano969]

....and what about tomorrow's numbers Deano? They look pretty abysmal to me, doubt they would be making any money.

ZL9 SYDMEL 62
ZL328 SYDBNE 59
ZL31 SYDMEL 85
ZL540 SYDOOL 39
ZL348 SYDBNE 92
ZL125 SYDMEL 85
ZL141 SYDMEL 78
ZL384 SYDBNE 60
ZL161 SYDMEL 61

Those numbers will improve as more pax check in

[Gunner747400]

Those numbers will improve as more pax check in

That's booked pax mate, not those that have checked in....

[Deano969]

That's booked pax mate, not those that have checked in....

ZL 9 went out with 140 y and 7 j today
Lets see if your numbers hold tomorrow

[Deano969]

VA looking just as bad to BNE
First 5 tomorrow
901 = 46
905 = 95
909 = 83
913 = 54
917 = 67
Average 69
REX average 70

[Ladloy]

This argument is getting old.

[PoppaJo]

Do I need to speak in another language? The data is useless until post departure. It all means nothing until then.

[SHVC]

All airlines could have 100% booking means nothing unless the infrastructure is there to move ppl through the security gates. Sydney this morning was a mess again, Australia biggest airport is becoming an embarrassment.

As for how Rex are really going we will find out about the 29th August see what spin they release QF on the 25th and VA is a big secret still.

[Deano969]

Do I need to speak in another language? The data is useless until post departure. It all means nothing until then.
OMG Poppa we agree on something :D

So how's REX doing in their SAAB's up against QF

From SYD
CFS 32.6 av. or 2 seats unsold today
PQQ 12.5 av. not so good 37%
OGA 23 av. 67%
WGA 22 av. 65%
ARM 16.6 av. 48%
DBO 25.2 av. 74%
ABX 25.75 av. 75%
Overall against QF on established, new and QF attacked routes average 22 seats out of 34 or 65% load factor

[Gunner747400]

Do I need to speak in another language? The data is useless until post departure. It all means nothing until then.

Yeah true, they might triple their bookings in 24 hours!

[Mr_App]

To clear up some confusion above.

The data pulled from the GDS only gives access to confirmed seats. Those not confirmed won’t appear. The data is way too patchy to confirm numbers until the flight has closed, it varies across all carriers and really depends on the systems they use. Those Virgin Brisbane numbers above are not accurate, they will likely depart with 90-100%. The Virgin data is still debatable post departure, gets messy with a whole heap of complex other parts around seat blocking and awards, GDS would often under read.

Rex figures are concrete once a flight has closed only, very basic carrier with very basic systems which is why you can get a accurate reading post departure. Anything prior your wasting your time reading into anything.

[MickG0105]

Do I need to speak in another language? The data is useless until post departure. It all means nothing until then.

​​​​​​​...
The data is way too patchy to confirm numbers until the flight has closed, it varies across all carriers and really depends on the systems they use.
​​​​​​...
Rex figures are concrete once a flight has closed only, very basic carrier with very basic systems which is why you can get a accurate reading post departure. Anything prior your wasting your time reading into anything.
At some point the dynamic morphs from slow learner to deliberate trolling.

[43Inches]

This argument is like watching two billionaires argue over 2 cents. Its irrelevant how many seats are filled if they have the funds to continue. Arguing over this stuff sounds more like management trolls trying to get the one up for some reason.

[MickG0105]

VA looking just as bad to BNE
First 5 tomorrow
901 = 46
905 = 95
909 = 83
913 = 54
917 = 67
Average 69
REX average 70
And with the actual, accurate numbers it is, as foretold repeatedly, a markedly different story. VA's first SYD-BNE flights this morning averaged 102 pax per flight:

VA901 - 78 (73Y, 5J)
VA905 - 126 (118Y, 8J)
VA909 - 106 (98Y, 8J)
VA913 - 75 (67Y, 8J)
VA917 - 125 (119Y, 6J)

Rex’s ZL328 flew with 78 pax.

[430W]

While I have always had concerns about the whole Sharp/ Rex relationship with government and have expressed my further concerns about the viability of the 737 ops, I would have to say that in my view they are not doing too bad. It would seem to have made sense to have limited aircraft and ops while the airports and staffing issues play out. (Not sure this was part of the great master plan though).

I am surprised at the loads they are carrying and would think they are in front of where they hoped to be. That said the other airlines have been too busy dealing with all the post Covid issues that have been presented to them to turn their full attention to Rex. That may yet come! While I haven''t flown on them, those I have spoken to that have, had nothing but good things to say as opposed to a lot of negative comments on the others.

Time will tell!

[MickG0105]

While I have always had concerns about the whole Sharp/ Rex relationship with government and have expressed my further concerns about the viability of the 737 ops, I would have to say that in my view they are not doing too bad. It would seem to have made sense to have limited aircraft and ops while the airports and staffing issues play out. (Not sure this was part of the great master plan though).

I am surprised at the loads they are carrying and would think they are in front of where they hoped to be. That said the other airlines have been too busy dealing with all the post Covid issues that have been presented to them to turn their full attention to Rex. That may yet come! While I haven''t flown on them, those I have spoken to that have, had nothing but good things to say as opposed to a lot of negative comments on the others.

Time will tell!
Not great, not terrible, to borrow a line.

Last week jet ops despatched 194 flights. Aggregate load factor for the week was 64 percent (SYD-MEL was 61.8 percent). Only 94 flights achieved 70+ percent loads. They almost certainly lost money for four days of the week, and made some money Friday through Sunday for a net loss for the week.

Notably, they operate fewer flights on two of the days they're making money. That raises the question as to where a 17 percent increase in capacity is going to fit into the picture.

The Flight Centre hook up seems to be having quite a positive outcome. Beyond that, to what extent they're currently pulling a Bradbury remains to be seen.

Time, as you have noted, will tell.

[volare_737]

Looks like Rex is interviewing in the near future for the 737. Anybody has any info on the process ??? Thanks

[Deano969]

Funny how the likes of Mick and Poppa were doing cartwheels when they were posting on here about loads in single digits or implying that REX were better deploying SAABs onto the triangle as REX would not be able to even fill those

Now we have Mick posting weekly load average of 61.8% and is still laying the boot in

Growth is growth Mick.....

Do you not understand that as the punters try REX they are liking what they are being delivered, this generates repeat business, mainly from infrequent flyers, the good service REX is providing won't provide immediate load increases as many of these flyers won't re-book for 6 months to perhaps a couple of years
This is good solid and sustained growth through a good product at a reasonable price
I have yet to see a negative report on ZL for their jet services and all the trip reports are positive and an awful lot of them have the word surprising mentioned

It's fairly obvious that no matter what the loads, what the fleet size, what their on time performance is or how much they pay their staff, Mick will still have an axe to grind with REX

[Australopithecus]

“How little they pay their staff”

There…fixed it for you.

[Deano969]

“How little they pay their staff”

There…fixed it for you.

And there's the rub isn't it
Pay and conditions, but unfortunately it's the way of the whole world
If it's not REX or Bonza, it'll be the next upstart or QF outsourcing or running sub airlines or VA and Link
There has been a global movement by airlines to cut costs and has been for years and showing no signs of stopping

[Australopithecus]

Not Global at all. You only see it in jurisdictions where employers have the upper hand due to collective bargaining restrictions. Your attention is directed to the US where pilot T & Cs are much better than with Australian carriers, and even they are improving rapidly.

[Maisk Rotum]

Looks like Rex is interviewing in the near future for the 737. Anybody has any info on the process ??? Thanks
Hunted for the 737 EBA on the Fair Work website but it's not there. Any clues where their Agreement can be downloaded? Yes I hear they are recruiting again. Seems like quite a bit of movement in the industry now.

[Ladloy]

Hunted for the 737 EBA on the Fair Work website but it's not there. Any clues where their Agreement can be downloaded? Yes I hear they are recruiting again. Seems like quite a bit of movement in the industry now.
there's no EBA yet.

[mikewil]

Looks like Rex is interviewing in the near future for the 737. Anybody has any info on the process ??? Thanks

shouldn't they be recruiting internally from the SAAB fleet rather than "poaching" their pilots from other carriers...:rolleyes:

[RENURPP]

Funny how the likes of Mick and Poppa were doing cartwheels when they were posting on here about loads in single digits or implying that REX were better deploying SAABs onto the triangle as REX would not be able to even fill those

Now we have Mick posting weekly load average of 61.8% and is still laying the boot in

Growth is growth Mick.....

Do you not understand that as the punters try REX they are liking what they are being delivered, this generates repeat business, mainly from infrequent flyers, the good service REX is providing won't provide immediate load increases as many of these flyers won't re-book for 6 months to perhaps a couple of years
This is good solid and sustained growth through a good product at a reasonable price
I have yet to see a negative report on ZL for their jet services and all the trip reports are positive and an awful lot of them have the word surprising mentioned

It's fairly obvious that no matter what the loads, what the fleet size, what their on time performance is or how much they pay their staff, Mick will still have an axe to grind with REX

Looks like passengers either love them or hate them.
Inflight service gets a good rap, https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/rex

[SHVC]

This product review website was on a current affair the other night, proven that business owners pay ppl to leave good 5 star reviews. I would take this with a grain of salt.

[43Inches]

Also the other way around, many businesses post fake bad reviews on competitors. We all know the saga with QF posting on Pprune vs VA a few years back.

[Deano969]

PoppaJo
REX average for today
Y 101
J 6
So much for your "flying 50 passengers around the triangle midweek"
Cant get more midweek than Wednesday

[Ladloy]

shouldn't they be recruiting internally from the SAAB fleet rather than "poaching" their pilots from other carriers...:rolleyes:
10% of the saab pilots have resigned in the last month.

[Deano969]

Fridays numbers
134 average outbound 77%

[Ken Borough]

When will people realise that load factor is simply a measure of the seats occupied on departure? Nothing more, nothing less. What we don’t know is what Rex collected from these passengers, and that is probably a piece of information tightly held by Rex.

[Wizofoz]

When will people realise that load factor is simply a measure of the seats occupied on departure? Nothing more, nothing less. What we don’t know is what Rex collected from these passengers, and that is probably a piece of information tightly held by Rex.They are pretty much certainly running at a loss. But THAT is irrelevant unless you know whether they have budgeted to run at a loss as they build a fleet and penetrate the market. They seem to be basically sold out this weekend, so unless they were wildly optimistic regarding when they were going to turn a profit, things are probably going OK.

[Deano969]

When will people realise that load factor is simply a measure of the seats occupied on departure? Nothing more, nothing less. What we don’t know is what Rex collected from these passengers, and that is probably a piece of information tightly held by Rex.

Like all carriers fares increase as the flights fill
At this point the cheapest seats for Monday are

SYD BNE $149 $179 $109
BNE SYD $89 $129 $119
SYD MEL $199 $199 $199 $159
MEL SYD $229 $269 $199 $149
SYD OOL $99
OOL SYD $249
MEL OOL $199
OOL MEL $599
MEL ADL $349 $299
ADL MEL $139 $130
MEL CBR $189
CBR MEL $149
Indicating flights are selling well at reasonable coin at certain load points

[Jenna Talia]

Like all carriers fares increase as the flights fill
At this point the cheapest seats for Monday are

SYD BNE $149 $179 $109
BNE SYD $89 $129 $119
SYD MEL $199 $199 $199 $159
MEL SYD $229 $269 $199 $149
SYD OOL $99
OOL SYD $249
MEL OOL $199
OOL MEL $599
MEL ADL $349 $299
ADL MEL $139 $130
MEL CBR $189
CBR MEL $149
Indicating flights are selling well at reasonable coin at certain load points

Yawwwn........:zzz::zzz::zzz:

[Deano969]

REX jet cracks 80% loads at over 140 average across both Y and J today across all flights
3 more frames due this year....
Perhaps
MEL PER or MEL ADL PER
SYD and or MEL CNS
And likely more to OOL as the current flights are pretty much full

Starting to throw some very solid numbers

[PoppaJo]

Yawwwn........:zzz::zzz::zzz:
Your telling me.

Who calls aircraft "frames" anyway. Hmmm, well nobody. Well, except about 2 other accounts on this site all with very similar traits, one being the ever annoying BNEA320. I won't embarrass the member with the other one, I think they are doing a good enough at that job themselves.

It would appear likely you are a pilot also digging deeper. Pretty poor if you ask me talking down terms and conditions of this (well...err...our) profession above. You referred to me as someone who needs to wake up, get with the times and expect cuts to my terms and conditions (aside Covid never seen it in my current employer in 14 years). You are the type that would sell your ar$e off to take my job flying the bigger toys at a pay cut, boy have we all worked with those types before. Looking at post history, well I think I know where you work, and my god I am not surprised one bit. Enjoy playing off against other pilots for new "frames" buddy in your little world, sounds like your right in your zone, going absolutely nowhere.

[SHVC]

REX jet cracks 80% loads at over 140 average across both Y and J today across all flights
3 more frames due this year....
Perhaps
MEL PER or MEL ADL PER
SYD and or MEL CNS
And likely more to OOL as the current flights are pretty much full

Starting to throw some very solid numbers

They will struggle with their PER-SY and more into SY. That pesky issue of slots ain’t going away.

[43Inches]

Pretty sure both Rex and Bonza will be mandated slots in the next round, that's if Bonza is up and running. The ACCC has already started to get involved so looks like VA and QF will have to relinquish some at some point, especially any unused slots held. Remember that slots are revisited on a yearly basis and redistributed on need, Covid had put a hold on normal redistribution as they chose not to change slot allocations until things settle down, which means next years slots will have to be assigned fairly to new entrants.

Have to remember that Rex was heavily involved in securing access for regional NSW routes into Sydney, they are very familiar with how the slot system works.

[Deano969]

Your telling me.

Who calls aircraft "frames" anyway. Hmmm, well nobody. Well, except about 2 other accounts on this site all with very similar traits, one being the ever annoying BNEA320. I won't embarrass the member with the other one, I think they are doing a good enough at that job themselves.

It would appear likely you are a pilot also digging deeper. Pretty poor if you ask me talking down terms and conditions of this (well...err...our) profession above. You referred to me as someone who needs to wake up, get with the times and expect cuts to my terms and conditions (aside Covid never seen it in my current employer in 14 years). You are the type that would sell your ar$e off to take my job flying the bigger toys at a pay cut, boy have we all worked with those types before. Looking at post history, well I think I know where you work, and my god I am not surprised one bit. Enjoy playing off against other pilots for new "frames" buddy in your little world, sounds like your right in your zone, going absolutely nowhere.

So PoppaJoe
All your REX bashing 6 months ago, wishing and hoping they would fail along with all your predictions of falling loads after the holidays, loads on the triangle midweek of 50 etc. None have materialised ......
So now you want to attack the messenger for calling you out on your inaccuracies ?
You totally don't have any idea where I work
REX would be a great place to have a go to advance however for a short route to PIC as they expand, no I don't drive for REX

It's time to accept that REX jet will
Be profitable by November
Have 9 birds by Christmas
Have 25-30 by mid 24
Continue to take loads from QF/JQ and VA

[dr dre]

It's time to accept that REX jet will
Be profitable by November
Have 9 birds by Christmas
Have 25-30 by mid 24
Continue to take loads from QF/JQ and VA

Even if the above happens (no gurantee it will) then really Rex will only grow to be slightly larger than Tigerair. Considering they never really cut into QF or VA mainline loads then Rex is just going after a niche market.

Btw if QF or VA think Rex jet is getting too big for their boots, then they could use capacity to hurt Rex where they really make their money, government subsidised and monopoly Rex turboprop routes.

And I also would take note of the Rex share price. Absolutely flatlining for the last 3 weeks as you’ve been posting those selective load factor stats.

[PoppaJo]

So PoppaJoe
All your REX bashing 6 months ago, wishing and hoping they would fail along with all your predictions of falling loads after the holidays, loads on the triangle midweek of 50 etc. None have materialised ......
So now you want to attack the messenger for calling you out on your inaccuracies ?
You totally don't have any idea where I work
REX would be a great place to have a go to advance however for a short route to PIC as they expand, no I don't drive for REX

It's time to accept that REX jet will
Be profitable by November
Have 9 birds by Christmas
Have 25-30 by mid 24
Continue to take loads from QF/JQ and VA
No I’m calling you out for having multiple accounts (aka no credibility) talking to yourself at numerous times. You do realise mods can see your IP address when you have multiple accounts talking to yourself in multiple threads? I won’t be replying to you any further with your multiple personalities.

[Gunner747400]

No I’m calling you out for having multiple accounts (aka no credibility) talking to yourself at numerous times. You do realise mods can see your IP address when you have multiple accounts talking to yourself in multiple threads? I won’t be replying to you any further with your multiple personalities.

Someone should probably call him out on his fabricated loads for Virgin to suit his narrative too :ugh:

[Deano969]

No I’m calling you out for having multiple accounts (aka no credibility) talking to yourself at numerous times. You do realise mods can see your IP address when you have multiple accounts talking to yourself in multiple threads? I won’t be replying to you any further with your multiple personalities.

Please Poppa, report me to the moderators....z
I'm not BNEA320 or any of his aliases, nor do I have multiple accounts
Perhaps there are just a few out there that agree with what I have posted along with plenty that agree with you

I only started defending REX when you were posting very negative comments about loads and the negative posts about Bonza

I too have posted negative regarding QF/JQ and to a lesser extent VA
Mainly about protecting their duopoly and the track record of bullying newcomers into bankruptcy, then getting back to pulling back capacity to improve yields
Only winners here are the shareholders, as always
Then the inevitable trail of destruction for the employees that worked on the collapsed airlines

I truly hope REX establishes themselves as a true third independent alternative and keep the bastards honest

[Deano969]

Someone should probably call him out on his fabricated loads for Virgin to suit his narrative too :ugh:

Only ever quoted VA once in reply to another post rubbishing REX
I posted REX and similar VA flights and their numbers that were accurate at the time, it was from the day prior however and seats likely firmed up on both between my post and their respective departures

[Deano969]

Nice loads on REX MEL-DPO
3513 28 on board
3531 29 on board

[Global Aviator]

Nice loads on REX MEL-DPO
3513 28 on board
3531 29 on board

I see what you did there! That be nearly 100% load factor eh! :ok:

[TimmyTee]

Any updates on loads or FY reports Deano?

[Deano969]

Any updates on loads or FY reports Deano?

Busy with other stuff ATM
Aren't FY results due today?
My bet is a loss, probably a big one, but hopefully with guidance regarding over the past 2-3 months showing much better results
I'd guess props are doing very well with jets dragging figures down, remembering jets were grounded for a few months and restart to March was slow

[Deano969]

Even if the above happens (no gurantee it will) then really Rex will only grow to be slightly larger than Tigerair.

If REX grow to 30 then they will be twice the size of Tiger, hardly slightly larger.....

[TimmyTee]

Odd that you constantly have the time to scour through every rex and virgin flight to count seats, but not enough to Google "REX massive loss" - knowing its their results day

Anyway, happy to help you out with this one
https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=REX+massive+loss

[SHVC]

It was a breath of fresh air that Rex didn’t decide to blame other carriers for the loss. What was it a 69m Looss up from 7m previous yr. COVID or no COVID I don’t think that’s all that good. LKH has given his predictions tho.

QF is out today that will be a whopping loss also.

VA had a spread in the paper, they’re delaying the float due to “state of the financial market” what are they masking?!

[cynphil]

Rex with a 68 million dollar loss, not including the 32 million they received from the government, adds up to a 100 million operational loss on only 319 million revenue!!! They will have a long way to go to get back to profitability by FY23!!!!

[MickG0105]

Not great, not terrible, to borrow a line. A bit perplexing though when the accompanying ASX statement is far more focussed on talking up FY23 than addressing the FY22 results.

Any old how. $70 million operating loss, cash flows look good fair. The claimed full year after tax loss of $46 million is softened by their $40.7 million asset impairment reversal. Their pre-tax loss would have been over $100 million (essentially a third of revenue) without it.

Looks like someone finally realised that their jet service wasn't just going to sell itself; their marketing spend doubled over the previous year.

Jet ops looks like it has added about $30 million a year in salaries and related costs. Leasing costs are becoming more transparent; around $US120K per month per jet.

Barring further external shocks, I am confident that the group will return to good profitability in the 2023 financial year.
As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

[430W]

And that on a market cap of 154M. Similar real loss last year when you reverse out the handout. Share-price held up at about $1.40 on very low volume. A few weeks ago I watched the market cap go up by about 30M on a little more than 200k of shares. It has stayed there ever since with very low volume support.

With these high level of losses and the ability of the debt holders to convert the loans to equity, the real dilution of share value as to where it remains just doesn't make sense. As so much about Rex doesn't!

This is just a cursory opinion. I'll have a much closer look at the accounts over the coming week.

[MickG0105]

And that on a market cap of 154M. Similar real loss last year when you reverse out the handout. Share-price held up at about $1.40 on very low volume. A few weeks ago I watched the market cap go up by about 30M on a little more than 200k of shares. It has stayed there ever since with very low volume support.

With these high level of losses and the ability of the debt holders to convert the loans to equity, the real dilution of share value as to where it remains just doesn't make sense. As so much about Rex doesn't!

This is just a cursory opinion. I'll have a much closer look at the accounts over the coming week.
Share price is absolutely critical to them with regards to the PAG funding. The associated secured convertible notes are set at $1.50 a share. Any time Rex draws down on the PAG funding with their shares below $1.50 they have to stump up the difference in cash. When their shares were in the $1.10 range it essentially put the PAG funds out of reach.

[430W]

Share price is absolutely critical to them with regards to the PAG funding. The associated secured convertible notes are set at $1.50 a share. Any time Rex draws down on the PAG funding with their shares below $1.50 they have to stump up the difference in cash. When their shares were in the $1.10 range it essentially put the PAG funds out of reach.

Exactly, and that is why I am suspicious of large increases in capital on very low volume and then support of the share price on very much lower volumes against bad news. And this has happened for quite a long time. Doesn't make sense.

[TBM-Legend]

A minor loss of $57.0m announced. Let’s blame someone

[smiling monkey]

A minor loss of $57.0m announced. Let’s blame someone

Considering QF losses were almost 20 times more, that's not too bad a result for Rex. So much for QF/JQ having much superior loads than Rex on the golden triangle routes. :ouch:

[Gunner747400]

Considering QF losses were almost 20 times more, that's not too bad a result for Rex. So much for QF/JQ having much superior loads than Rex on the golden triangle routes. :ouch:

Good troll, made me giggle.

[43Inches]

PAG wont give two hoots about share price for at least another year, unless it completely tanks. Loss seems totally in line with conditions and current expansion trajectory. Its also quite obvious from the QF loss that the flight credits as talked about earlier are completely distorting the market. That is people are hooked in QF and VA to redeem owed credits, once that dies down over the next year or two the market will be more open to choice. Rex loads over the last year are more indicative of what was left of the real market rather than long term indicators. Which is why rex forward bookings are rising and management are confident.

[Deano969]

So REX has posted a loss which was always on the cards, remembering the REX jet shutdown, the false starts and 2021 boarder closures along with the attack by QF
So what changes for REX moving forward, a 50% increase in the REX jet fleet as QF/JQ cuts flights and increases fares by 20% with the aim of getting 95% loads LMFAO
Perhaps they could also exit Broken Hill, Orange, Cooma, Merimbula and a few others that the threw QLink onto to hurt REX, note that they waived the white flag at Mt Gambier and Albury to Melbourne
Any one know how much QF/JQ spent trying to eliminate REX ?
FFS QF/JQ would be better off getting their own product right as they are now just gifting passengers to REX
OTP. cancellations, lost baggage and falling staff morale are but a few of their issues

Jets today
328 SYD BNE 139 Y
348 SYD BNE 146 Y
202 MEL BNE 151 Y
258 MEL BNE 164 Y
616 MEL CBR 90 Y
658 MEL OOL 146 Y
437 MEL ADL 112 Y
489 MEL ADL 136 Y
018 MEL SYD 133 Y
042 MEL SYD 140 Y
132 MEL SYD 162 Y
152 MEL SYD 120 Y
182 MEL SYD 130 Y
540 SYD OOL 150 Y
Average 136.1 = 81% load
Last Friday was 128.3 = 76%
Jets trending up 5%

[Colonel_Klink]

So REX has posted a loss which was always on the cards, remembering the REX jet shutdown, the false starts and 2021 boarder closures along with the attack by QF
So what changes for REX moving forward, a 50% increase in the REX jet fleet as QF/JQ cuts flights and increases fares by 20% with the aim of getting 95% loads LMFAO
Perhaps they could also exit Broken Hill, Orange, Cooma, Merimbula and a few others that the threw QLink onto to hurt REX, note that they waived the white flag at Mt Gambier and Albury to Melbourne
Any one know how much QF/JQ spent trying to eliminate REX ?
FFS QF/JQ would be better off getting their own product right as they are now just gifting passengers to REX
OTP. cancellations, lost baggage and falling staff morale are but a few of their issues

Jets today
328 SYD BNE 139 Y
348 SYD BNE 146 Y
202 MEL BNE 151 Y
258 MEL BNE 164 Y
616 MEL CBR 90 Y
658 MEL OOL 146 Y
437 MEL ADL 112 Y
489 MEL ADL 136 Y
018 MEL SYD 133 Y
042 MEL SYD 140 Y
132 MEL SYD 162 Y
152 MEL SYD 120 Y
182 MEL SYD 130 Y
540 SYD OOL 150 Y
Average 136.1 = 81% load
Last Friday was 128.3 = 76%
Jets trending up 5%


Yup on that trend basis they’ll be at 111% Load factors in 6 weeks 👍

[Ladloy]

Exactly, and that is why I am suspicious of large increases in capital on very low volume and then support of the share price on very much lower volumes against bad news. And this has happened for quite a long time. Doesn't make sense.
how suspicious is the share price at the moment. It miraculously dips every morning to return to $1.4 by close.

[43Inches]

ASX graph has the price holding steady since it hit $1.40 +- a few cents, nothing to see there. Very low volumes so just normal trading. Or are you alluding that somebody is trying to manipulate the price lower and failing?

[Ladloy]

ASX graph has the price holding steady since it hit $1.40 +- a few cents, nothing to see there. Very low volumes so just normal trading. Or are you alluding that somebody is trying to manipulate the price lower and failing?
As I said, on open the price drops to 1.35 and the next to no trading, then a a few buys before close boosting it back to $1.40. It's just odd. It never trades sidewayd

[43Inches]

Could just be somebody has an automatic trigger to buy anything under $1.40, somebody posts a trade at $1.35 and it gets snapped up and all other trades until its back up to $1.40 then they stop buying. There's a lot of automated stock market transactions. Just suck to be the person selling at $1.35 when they could have got $1.40. Reverse if you are stupid enough to sell well below valuation then somebody will shark them and put them back on the market straight away at the higher market value, instant profit for no work.

[MickG0105]

ASX graph has the price holding steady since it hit $1.40 +- a few cents, nothing to see there. Very low volumes so just normal trading. Or are you alluding that somebody is trying to manipulate the price lower and failing?
If you are only looking at daily closes there may be nothing to see but if you look at intraday trading there is a clear pattern of the shares pivoting at $1.38 on support at $1.35 and resistance at $1.41 on very low volumes. That's been going on for about three weeks now and it's been largely agnostic to the results being released.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1032x619/screenshot_20220826_202746_chrome_82eeeb83d55dc83a92aa49231a 37d276fdd11973.jpg

[43Inches]

Not sure what the excitement is, but the last few weeks the ASX has been flat, with Rex shares pretty much pacing with it the last 5 days on comparison. Looks odd but generally the company results are totally in line with what the market expected from the look of it so no one of note batted an eyelid and probably just some minor trades going on.

[SHVC]

Very interesting watching this share price. Without fail since this was first mentioned closes at $1.40.

[Ladloy]

Very interesting watching this share price. Without fail since this was first mentioned closes at $1.40.
like clockwork

[430W]

Not sure what the excitement is, but the last few weeks the ASX has been flat, with Rex shares pretty much pacing with it the last 5 days on comparison. Looks odd but generally the company results are totally in line with what the market expected from the look of it so no one of note batted an eyelid and probably just some minor trades going on.


It's got nothing to do with tracking the ASX. The ASX is made up of a basket of shares, some winners some losers on any given day. Look at MickG0105 chart. Did the market go up some 16% over the two days early August before it levelled out as you have observed. What about in February? I have watched this stock for a long time and it just doesn't make sense. Large increases in market cap on as little as 5000 shares. Goes up on no news that would elicit the action in the market. I acknowledge that the shares may be tightly held. However, as MichG pointed out earlier, there would appear to be covenants on the PAG funding. Time will tell what happens with the shares that are held now if PAG get to exercise their rights. They could easily be worthless.

[430W]

like clockwork

Yep, and maintained on action of about 25K shares. I've seen it do it on a lot less.

[SHVC]

So, any ideas on how/why this occurs?

[MickG0105]

There is still no registration on the CASA database for MFM
And it's still not there but the aircraft, MSN 42805, still registered as 2-WTFL (hex code 43EEA5) is currently en route to Brisbane. It was flown from Dubai to KL yesterday. Left KL this afternoon.

[Wizofoz]

BlobViewer.aspx (rex.com.au) (https://www.rex.com.au/BlobViewer/BlobViewer.aspx?attachtype=MR&filename=322B4B51736A374838642B7178366D38645A495A33494553586 74F6D3841726B36306E624A467057503261394D6247685862334C5474357 97953574A736F5739)

[MickG0105]

BlobViewer.aspx (rex.com.au) (https://www.rex.com.au/BlobViewer/BlobViewer.aspx?attachtype=MR&filename=322B4B51736A374838642B7178366D38645A495A33494553586 74F6D3841726B36306E624A467057503261394D6247685862334C5474357 97953574A736F5739)
Interesting that Rex's Facebook pics from Montpellier showed it sporting the -MFM rego whereas it arrived last night as 2-WTFL.

Be interesting to know whether they had it reconfigured to the VA-style J/economy-X/Y cabin.

[Wizofoz]

Interesting that Rex's Facebook pics from Montpellier showed it sporting the -MFM rego whereas it arrived last night as 2-WTFL.

Be interesting to know whether they had it reconfigured to the VA-style J/economy-X/Y cabin.

I imagine they have it configured in their configuration.

[regional_flyer]

Interesting that Rex's Facebook pics from Montpellier showed it sporting the -MFM rego whereas it arrived last night as 2-WTFL.

Painted with its Aussie rego in place, with a decal slapped over displaying its temporary reg for delivery flight purposes. Pretty standard with delivery of second-hand aircraft.

[Captn Rex Havack]

2nd hand? 3rd hand? 4th hand? .....

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Only 8 years old, but been around the block a bit. Looks like it only flew regularly with the first operator, rest of the time sitting around.
VH-MFM (https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-737-800-2-wtfl-fly-leasing/edz6p9)

[Wizofoz]

2nd hand? 3rd hand? 4th hand? .....
Significantly younger and lower time than the average QF737.

[Ladloy]

Significantly younger and lower time than the average QF737.
easily the youngest aircraft of any type that Rex has ever had.

[Wizofoz]

easily the youngest aircraft of any type that Rex has ever had.
It's got brand new B350s for the Air Ambulance contract.

[Ladloy]

It's got brand new B350s for the Air Ambulance contract.
that's true I guess. Sometimes it's easy to forget Pelair is Rex.

[TimmyTee]

that's true I guess. Sometimes it's easy to forget Pelair is Rex.
you're always reminded this when you see the similar garbage conditions

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Interesting it spent quite a few months sitting in BNE during COVID waiting for Samoa to take it up.

[Chris2303]

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/companies/reticent-rex-chairman-doesn-t-care-for-planes-but-wants-to-do-well-20220901-p5bekh.html?fbclid=IwAR1N1l9-mXTebnRBKDvdLahkC1nonODXOF0Jmkdel-sv2rySet6OeK7FdQs

[430W]

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/companies/reticent-rex-chairman-doesn-t-care-for-planes-but-wants-to-do-well-20220901-p5bekh.html?fbclid=IwAR1N1l9-mXTebnRBKDvdLahkC1nonODXOF0Jmkdel-sv2rySet6OeK7FdQs

Love the bit where he sets about trying to head off any suggestion of corruption with the Sharp and Coalition Parties.

[Deano969]

Numbers still on the way up for REX jet

A couple of weeks ago Thursday numbers outbound
Y average 109.4 around 65%

Yesterday
Y average 141.0 around 84%

Sorry MickG and PoppaJo but you just can't argue with the numbers.....

[MickG0105]

Numbers still on the way up for REX jet

A couple of weeks ago Thursday numbers outbound
Y average 109.4 around 65%

Yesterday
Y average 141.0 around 84%

Sorry MickG and PoppaJo but you just can't argue with the numbers.....

No one is arguing with the numbers. I've been one of the proponents of focusing on the numbers rather than just making stuff up as you go along. And, as I noted last month, the Flight Centre hook up seems to be having quite a positive outcome for Rex. No one would be disputing that this has been a good week so far for Rex.

Separately, and falling into the same pattern of telling you something that you've been told before, you cannot accurately infer what the true Y/J spilt is from the seat plan data. As a couple of contributors have noted, Rex are pursuing a practice of routinely upgrading punters from Y to J meaning that the Y numbers are likely understated. You're best sticking to total pax numbers.

And why would you be quoting "outbound" numbers?! Outbound from where? Sydney? Melbourne?

Looking at the network in total, yesterday Rex's jet ops managed an aggregate load factor of 82.6 percent over their 28 flights for the day. Last Thursday, one of their weakest for the past four weeks, they managed only 76.4 percent.

[Deano969]

Mick I have not quoted any J numbers for just that reason
I quote outbound MEL to all, then SYD to OOL BNE as outbound and inbound are usually pretty close
QF/JQ have certainly done more for REX than they realize and all the attacking and capacity dumping on REXs regional network has been outweighed ten fold their poor performance in recent times on mainline
I mean taking half a dozen pax of a SAAB verses seeing 80+% on 737s is a massive win for REX

All REX needs to do now is
Keep their birds on time
Get bags to their destination
Offer up decent galley selections
Have smiling staff greeting customers
Keep fares reasonable

Do these simple things and there is no doubt they will get to 30+ frames and be the true third option that the public have been looking for
QF/JQ is still a big chance of falling over as one thing JS said that I believe to be true, that they are trading whilst insolvent
If QF/JQ stopped trading tomorrow and cashed in their remaining assets, IMO, they would not be able to cover their liabilities
Leave
Super
FFPs
Unused vouchers
Debtors
Loans
Excluding leases....

[MickG0105]

There's a marked difference between having negative equity and trading while insolvent.

[C441]

Just looked at Rex BNE-ADL in October. Yes, a very reasonable Business class fare …..if you don't mind taking 11 hours to get there with 7 hour+ transit in Melbourne.
The alternative was a Sydney transit that was a bit quicker but then, for me, the Virgin and Qantas J class fares on their direct services was comparable.

[dr dre]

QF/JQ is still a big chance of falling over as one thing JS said that I believe to be true, that they are trading whilst insolvent


He said that almost 18 months ago. Pretty impressive to trade insolvent for that amount of time and still remain afloat. And considering “insolvent” means “unable to pay debts” I’m not sure how going from peak $6.4b debt during Covid to $3.9b debt now classifies as “unable to pay down debt”.

Rex’s debt went up from FY 21 to 22 btw…..

[43Inches]

They paid down debt from $1billion worth of assets sold and ticket receipts that were not used during the covid period. Hence why planes are full now in domestic at 75% capacity yet revenue is only 30% of pre-covid ($5billion this year vs $15 Billion pre covid). The sale of assets to remove debt leading to a worse NTA than when debt was higher as its a poor way to recover owed monies with fire sales of assets. Rex increase in Debt has barely affected its net tangible asset score because the debt was invested into company expansion and operations.

[Deano969]

I seem to recall the Irishman stating on media that (because of covid, yes) that QF at one point were only a couple of months away from folding

[Deano969]

Can you just imagine how much cash QF/JQ are sitting on in pre sold tickets?
It truly showed where it was at when it could not refund presold tickets during covid, just offered up funny money vouchers
REX on the other hand gave cash back...

[Potsie Weber]

Can you just imagine how much cash QF/JQ are sitting on in pre sold tickets?
It truly showed where it was at when it could not refund presold tickets during covid, just offered up funny money vouchers
REX on the other hand gave cash back...

As at 30 Jun, $3.1b in advance tickets sold, pretty much pre-Covid amount. $1.3b in Covid travel credits. Credit usage at about $80m per month. It’s all in the financial statements.

[MickG0105]

Can you just imagine how much cash QF/JQ are sitting on in pre sold tickets?

You don't have to imagine, it's recorded on their balance sheet.

[C441]

Collingwood supporters take note. Rex shouldn't have any problem filling seats between Melbourne and Sydney and back this weekend coming.:ok:

$600 MEL-SYD economy on Friday, nothing on Saturday and then strangely from $299 Business Saver but $399 economy on return on Sunday.

Go Swannies!