REX SAAB Issue? [Archive]

43Inches

10th Jul 2022, 09:23

Metros and Chieftains are still flying commercial ops, does that answer your question?

The only replacement option being the ATR, with 22 fatal accidents costing 675 lives vs the SAAB with 4 accidents and 48 lives lost. Both types having started life in 1984 I know which is the safer bet, even now. I think a types safety and reliability is more related to it's engineering than its age, and if anything they get safer with age as operators get to know their vices. Whether the type is still cost effective is another thing, fuel use and engineering costs, that is the major driver of replacing types.

KRUSTY 34

10th Jul 2022, 09:40

As of yesterday it was still parked on Foxtrot 7 in Sydney. Unknown if the cause of the situation has been resolved?

De_flieger

10th Jul 2022, 11:45

How long can these things go on for? 30 40 50 years?
The B52 has been flying for 65+ years and on current plans, the last B52 pilots haven’t been born yet. Update the avionics and throw some more modern engines in the Saab, or even just keep maintaining the existing ones, and it’s got plenty of life left.

Australopithecus

10th Jul 2022, 21:24

The B52 has been flying for 65+ years and on current plans, the last B52 pilots haven’t been born yet. Update the avionics and throw some more modern engines in the Saab, or even just keep maintaining the existing ones, and it’s got plenty of life left.

Its a bit disingenuous to compare the longevity of an aircraft with no modern equivalent doing a mission considered to be essential supported by a bottomless well of money. None of those things are true of civilian turboprops.

The basic airframe might still be good, but which new engine is in that thrust class? Who would pay the eye-watering money for a modern avionics integration and certification? A development program like that would simply be unaffordable even if you could get someone to do the engineering.

43Inches

10th Jul 2022, 22:39

New ATR-42, $20 million +- a few mil. New cockpit to cat 2 standard, possibly even cat 3, $500k to $1m. T700 core and engine is still being refined as its the basis for the Blackhawk/Seahawk helicopter. So it would not take a lot of imagination to get GE to refine the CT-7. Overall you could probably refit and zero time a SAAB 340 to a modern standard for under $10m. That is a full gut and refit with digital, avionics, led lighting, extended low weight composites, passive and active noise control, new engine and props etc etc.... Problem is right now how long will fossil fuel and its technologies power the aircraft. Even $10 mil needs to be spread over at least the next 20 years to be viable.

Ladloy

10th Jul 2022, 22:58

43Inches

10th Jul 2022, 23:12

There are electric motors being tested for the Saab but chances are it won't be complete in this decade.

Hybrid electric SAAB is due for first flight in 2025/26. That's the NASA project with Boeing and GE. I think Sweden has a project in the wind, but not sure what airframe they are using, I would be surprised if its not SAAB based.

The NASA project is talking about 30%+ fuel use reduction, rather than pure electric. So the aircraft would still retain it's current range and performance, just cost less in Jet fuel. There are also maintenance savings that are a part of it. Although the gearbox is completely replaced with an electric motor and the CT-7 retained as a generator. It's quite conceivable that it could be made full electric with ease as the jet fuel portion is just an electric power plant, not drive train.

BTW there are DASH-8 hybrids and fuel cell aircraft in development as well, so not just SAAB. I assume ATR is also mulling over what to do in the field, although nothing substantial is in the works yet (they have the Evo in progress, but it's even being called a "mild hybrid" meaning very little change, just larger batteries with some sort of electric booster engine).

Australopithecus

10th Jul 2022, 23:29

I think the 2000 hp powerplant you want is still years away, from the ultimate PT6 or GE 93 for a straight upgrade. The NASA project, while interesting, wouldn’t be ready for commercial use, if ever, by 2026.

But whatever. If you were in the business of providing aircraft financing, would you fund a life extension of an old airframe or a new build?

43Inches

10th Jul 2022, 23:33

But whatever. If you were in the business of providing aircraft financing, would you fund a life extension of an old airframe or a new build?

You are talking corporate financing here, whether you get the funding is based on your business case, security and ability to repay. The interest will be based on the risk, that is all. You can get financing for just about any crazy idea, upgrading old machinery for continued viable operation is a fairly safe bet in industry and is done all the time.

I think the 2000 hp powerplant you want is still years away, from the ultimate PT6 or GE 93 for a straight upgrade.

There is already a better version of the CT-7 available, just not worth the swap over fees. As with everything it's a matter of what is available, at what cost in what numbers, we are talking a large business here not retrofitting a Cessna. Anyone familiar with whats going on with Rex and Link SAABs know you can rip out whats inside and replace it, the outside is just an aluminium and composite tube with some wings attached. The original SAAB was actually designed to take either GE or PW engines, however no operators accepted the PW option as it was deemed too new and non reliability proven.

Australopithecus

10th Jul 2022, 23:50

You are talking corporate financing here, whether you get the funding is based on your business case, security and ability to repay. The interest will be based on the risk, that is all. You can get financing for just about any crazy idea, upgrading old machinery for continued viable operation is a fairly safe bet in industry and is done all the time.

There is already a better version of the CT-7 available, just not worth the swap over fees. As with everything it's a matter of what is available, at what cost in what numbers, we are talking a large business here not retrofitting a Cessna. Anyone familiar with whats going on with Rex and Link SAABs know you can rip out whats inside and replace it, the outside is just an aluminium and composite tube with some wings attached. The original SAAB was actually designed to take either GE or PW engines, however no operators accepted the PW option as it was deemed too new and non reliability proven.

I thought that GE was building a new engine in that class, but see now that it is only 1600 h.p., so the only choice would be the upgraded CT7 if such a thing would be worthwhile from a fuel consumption point of view, or the PT-6A 68

I still think that you are underestimating the cost of an upgrade spread over a small fleet. Technically everything you write is doable, maybe without too many challenges, but even the simplest thing these days seems to cost 3x what you think it should cost in even your most fevered imagination.

43Inches

10th Jul 2022, 23:54

GE produced the CT-7-9C3 and the 9D2 both with over 15% more take-off power and 5% more cruise power with optimised metallurgy, air flow and electronics which also reduced fuel consumption. Obviously both were not considered enough of an upgrade for the SAAB 340, whether cost or operational savings.

I still think that you are underestimating the cost of an upgrade spread over a small fleet. Technically everything you write is doable, maybe without too many challenges, but even the simplest thing these days seems to cost 3x what you think it should cost in even your most fevered imagination.

Cost is factored per unit, you go to SAAB (Boeing, ATR, Airbus or whoever) and they basically tell you how much it would cost per unit over your fleet. SAAB already has the zero time program in place for the SAAB MPA, which could easily be converted to airliner specs just swap out the Naval Patrol interior for a passenger cabin, new cockpit, new wiring and electronics etc. The issue right now is not how much it costs or whether it can be done, but for how long this technology will be valid. No point spending $5mil per aircraft to have a smick fleet of dinosaur burners when electric is just around the corner. That is if the crystal ball said fossil fuels the only way for the next 20 years, you'd see more upgrades, right now everyone knows there's a technology change in the wind, which could render all the old tech obsolete and uncompetetive. Regionals have to budget on 20+ years for major fleet changes, as opposed to larger airlines that bank on 10 years for a Boeing.

Ladloy

11th Jul 2022, 01:47

Saab approached Rex 10 years ago with the option to start a manufacturing a Saab 340C but the supreme leader laughed in their faces with the notion that a second hand model B can be snatched up from the US for 1 million. The reality is now that sure, the current 340s could go on for another decade, but is maintenance starting to eat into their bottom line?

43Inches

11th Jul 2022, 04:21

Nothing to do with Rex, SAAB shelved it due to lack of demand. Needed 100+ units to make production restart viable, only got around 60 firms otherwise per unit cost was prohibitive. Rex was included in possible firm orders from what I've heard. The major reason for the retry was a possible deal with a startup US regional, they pulled out and went with Q400s and RJs, there was 100+ orders possible with that deal and without it SAAB walked away.

I think the main reason they got little interest was no firm idea of what was going to be produced, some half planned SAAB 2000 rehash with new technology, which would probably have been awesome, but no substance to sell the market. The Q400 was there and ready to go so won the day.

De_flieger

11th Jul 2022, 06:03

Its a bit disingenuous to compare the longevity of an aircraft with no modern equivalent doing a mission considered to be essential supported by a bottomless well of money. None of those things are true of civilian turboprops.

The basic airframe might still be good, but which new engine is in that thrust class? Who would pay the eye-watering money for a modern avionics integration and certification? A development program like that would simply be unaffordable even if you could get someone to do the engineering.
Not trying to be disingenuous, merely to point out that if properly maintained there are airframes happily plodding along for many decades longer than first imagined.

New engine? New builds of the current CT7, then in time model upgrades to the CT7, or new engines when the numbers make sense - I hadn’t heard of the hybrid electric idea so thanks 43Inches! And the avionics arent necessarily requiring upgrading for now, I’m just thinking that as the regulatory requirements change over the years incremental updates can be made, eg dual FMSs or whatever. And as systems stop being supported either find secondary suppliers or work out the point at which a full upgrade becomes worthwhile. As was done when the CRT avionics displays were no longer produced and the drop-in LCD units were sourced to keep things going.

Australopithecus

11th Jul 2022, 08:09

Hmmm. Maybe I am too much of a naysayer. If the plane suits the routes so perfectly and there isn’t anything comparable new then perhaps…

One of the obsolete POS DC3s I flew in 1975 was still doing the same job five years ago.

43Inches

11th Jul 2022, 08:21

The difference there is that SAAB still supports the SAAB 340 type certificate and is willing to help sign off on engineering changes/issues, and has still a lot of in house expertise to manage engineering changes and certification. That means that the 340 is only an, 'out of production' type, not obsolete. This goes on to issues such as airframe life, where they keep signing off on extensions based on in service data and testing outcomes. This is different to say the F27/F50, which lost its parent company, encountered a few airframe ending limits, and now the fleet is condemned without operators spending big bucks. Brasillias, Jetstreams and Metros are in the same boat, where the onus is on the operators mostly to fund any life extending patches.

Australopithecus

11th Jul 2022, 08:32

Ah! I was sure that I read somewhere that SAAB had left aviation entirely and so thought that the 340 was an orphan like the Fokkers. If there is still factory support and engineering then the only hurdles would be money and a business case.

43Inches

11th Jul 2022, 09:11

SAAB AB has shelved it's commercial arm, but all the stuff is stored around the place. They still make fighter jets and are focused on military contracts, which is where the money is. IFrom what I've read they won't be re-entering the civilian building market again without a partner, remember that the SF340 was a joint project with Fairchild to start with, which kicked off a lot of regional turboprop projects and no longer exists. But SAAB still has all the data and personnel to do with aircraft manufacture and design. Basically they are a huge company that can swing to anything that will make a dollar for them given the right conditions. Making fighter jets and parts and design for airbus is their focus in aviation at the moment.

https://www.saab.com/products/air/regional-aircraft

C441

21st Apr 2023, 22:17

Pilot shortage behind Rex cuts to regional flights Australia-wide (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/pilot-shortage-behind-rex-cuts-to-regional-flights-australiawide/news-story/3805fcbe852c93d0d0e0fb7a5cf5e896)

An article in The Australian discusses the shortage of pilots (and engineers) at Rex.

From May 1, flights will be reduced on nine routes in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland. Another four routes would see flight times altered, and the Mildura-Adelaide service will be suspended altogether. Rex general manager of network strategy Warwick Lodge said they would reinstate the services once the situation has stabilised. “These adjustments are necessitated by the chronic shortage of airline professionals, particularly pilots and engineers, as well as the severe disruption in the supply chain of aircraft and parts,” Mr Lodge said…...

The airline posted a $16.5m half year loss for the six months to December 2022, and noted that regional operations had been a “drag” on financial performance. A fleet of 34-seat Saab 340s with an average age of 28.6-years are used on regional routes, covering more than 60 destinations.

Switchbait

21st Apr 2023, 22:27

You reap what you sow…

TBM-Legend

21st Apr 2023, 23:27

How long can these things go on for? 30 40 50 years?

DC-3’s are flying, Lockheed Electra fire bombers, Bae 146’s, C-130’s, 737-200’s, KC-135, B-52’s, CRJ’s all flying

KRUSTY 34

22nd Apr 2023, 02:18

" Regional operations had been a drag on financial performance."

No words!

Australopithecus

22nd Apr 2023, 03:42

DC-3’s are flying, Lockheed Electra fire bombers, Bae 146’s, C-130’s, 737-200’s, KC-135, B-52’s, CRJ’s all flying

That's a bit of a stretch. DC-3s are unpressurised, as are (now) L-188 firebombers. DC-3s fly now mostly as curiosities at airshows or in the Arctic. The Arctic is also where many of the 60 or so 737-200s fly because they have gravel kits. (The rest fly for bottom-of-the-barrel operators with iffy oversight.) Military aircraft have military maintenance budgets so hardly are equivalent.

You can fly old aircraft, sure. But not if you can’t attract engineering talent to handle the ever increasing workload.

Beats me why one of the richer countries in the world finds it necessary to operate aircraft long since retired elsewhere.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/300x232/689f04d1_b91e_4bc9_84b6_8d5451c092c5_aff58bb8a680ce6771e020b 3b004b3d3d768c0ff.gif

Mr_App

22nd Apr 2023, 04:12

Beats me why one of the richer countries in the world finds it necessary to operate aircraft long since retired elsewhere.

Likely more to do with the financial position with Rex. They don't have any means to fund a new regional replacement. Perhaps they should just stick to playing with Jets, after all, its all they seem to talk about.

Deano969

22nd Apr 2023, 04:28

The QF and QQ F100s are both older than REXs SAABs with the difference being the F100s have always had like for like replacements available where as there is nothing available as a replacement in the 30 seat segment or more importantly keeping the MTOW under the limits for security screening
As other countries don't have this MTOW verses security screening issue and foreign regionals progressively update their fleets, the likes of REX and Link will just keep buying up what's left

Australopithecus

22nd Apr 2023, 12:37

RENURPP

23rd Apr 2023, 02:06

Its not just Rex. I am also alluding to the Fokkers and 717s.
The oldest aircraft operate by QF in the fleets

717 - oldest 21 years the youngest 16 years. Retirement of the B717 has already begun.
A330 - 16 years. On 141 airlines operating this type of aircraft Qantas ranks 121
B737 - 15 years. On 294 airlines operating this type of aircraft Qantas ranks 179

Deano969

23rd Apr 2023, 03:22

The oldest aircraft operate by QF in the fleets

717 - oldest 21 years the youngest 16 years. Retirement of the B717 has already begun.
A330 - 16 years. On 141 airlines operating this type of aircraft Qantas ranks 121
B737 - 15 years. On 294 airlines operating this type of aircraft Qantas ranks 179

Well if you are going to include QLink / NJS why would you not include
Network F100s at 27.5 years to 32.8 years
Or
Express Freighters 737s 32.8 years to 36.6 years

On another note
REXs SAABs are some of the younger ones still active

Australopithecus

23rd Apr 2023, 06:57

What do those numbers mean? Average age? median age? And the rankings?

kiwi grey

24th Apr 2023, 02:42

Likely more to do with the financial position with Rex. They don't have any means to fund a new regional replacement. Perhaps they should just stick to playing with Jets, after all, its all they seem to talk about.
Rex's financial position is nothing to do with a putative S340 replacement, the real problem is that nobody makes any thirty seat airliners anymore.
As far as I know, there is only one western-manufactured aircraft designed to carry between twenty and sixty airline passengers in production, and that's the ATR42 - a 40-seater. I'd expect that available passenger volumes would have to increase quite a bit to make an ATR42 work on the same routes on which a S340 is profitable.

Rex's best bet for a new 30-seater might be an ATR42 derivative modified to run on LH2 with a whopping great fuselage tank reducing the seating capacity.
But those would be very expensive, are a decade in the future and would require an enormous investment in LH2 production & storage infrastructure.

TimmyTee

24th Apr 2023, 03:43

Aren’t their saabs going to be electrified in the next 5 years……..?

Deano969

24th Apr 2023, 06:53

tossbag

24th Apr 2023, 06:58

The sooner they electrify the better, the more fuel left for me to burn in the Ram.

Mr Proach

24th Apr 2023, 12:07

I understand there is a Turkish owned company (in Germany) that is developing a modern variant of the Dornier 328 and REX has acquired a share of a company that has produced electric engines for float planes and is presently developing an electric power plant for King Air sized turbine powered aircraft, one would expect that SAAB type aircraft would also be in their target range.

morno

24th Apr 2023, 12:15

Cool, so they’re only about 10-15 years away from even being close to fit for purpose!

puff

24th Apr 2023, 21:26

The oldest aircraft operate by QF in the fleets

717 - oldest 21 years the youngest 16 years. Retirement of the B717 has already begun.
A330 - 16 years. On 141 airlines operating this type of aircraft Qantas ranks 121
B737 - 15 years. On 294 airlines operating this type of aircraft Qantas ranks 179

VH-QPA is 19.5 years old
VH-EBA is 20.5 years old
VH-VXA is 21.3 years old
VH-YQX is 23.4 years old.

Think your figures were averages Renurpp.

43Inches

24th Apr 2023, 22:46

I have never understood why aircraft manufacturers or trying to electrify commercial aircraft as the big drawback is the weight
Toyota are going all in on hydrogen combustion vehicles and state they get the same range from 5 or so litres of compressed hydrogen as 60 litres of petrol
Even factoring the weight of heavier tanks, wouldn't a hydrogen powered commercial jet or prop be a better way to go whilst being even greener ?

If you are following development at present numerous prototypes are in play. Electric, hybrid electric, bio fuel, hydrogen both combustion and fuel cell. The Dornier 328 mentioned above is being certified initially for both AVTUR and Biofuel using the PW 127 XT, however they are playing with hydrogen options as well. There is a Dash-8 program playing with hydrogen combustion and a few others. NASA is playing with a hybrid electric SAAB 340B so many programs are going ahead.

The sooner they electrify the better, the more fuel left for me to burn in the Ram.

Unfortunately as supply winds down due to lack of demand the economy of scale will wind down with it, meaning you may be paying infinitely more for a liter of refined fossil fuel. It will probably get to the stage you are better off making it yourself as only essential commercial operators will get subsidies.

There is a myth that AVGAS is a money maker for the refineries, it's quite the opposite, the majority of cash is made on the staple products at small markups due to mass production. AVGAS has higher margins plastered on it to make it's production worthwhile, but it's so limited run its hardly a blip of the cash made from ULP and other products.

Ladloy

26th Apr 2023, 10:09

No one going to mention KDK having a battery fire?

43Inches

26th Apr 2023, 23:56

No one going to mention KDK having a battery fire?

Was it a battery fire? I've seen pics on the news and nothing tell tale about what it was. Apart from being in the general area of the batteries, as well as other stuff. One thing to note is that the fire was relatively contained and the hull survived with local damage only from the look of it. I know a number of other aircraft types would have burnt to the ground with a mid fuselage fire. SAAB batteries are also outside the pressure hull and this looks like an internal fire.

Ladloy

27th Apr 2023, 00:49

Was it a battery fire? I've seen pics on the news and nothing tell tale about what it was. Apart from being in the general area of the batteries, as well as other stuff. One thing to note is that the fire was relatively contained and the hull survived with local damage only from the look of it. I know a number of other aircraft types would have burnt to the ground with a mid fuselage fire. SAAB batteries are also outside the pressure hull and this looks like an internal fire.
From what I've heard the pilots couldn't see anything in the cockpit. The Pelair freighters don't have any contracts any more and are shortly to be sold off. The only thing it was carrying was engiNe parts to rescue a WT which had shut an engine down in QLD.

43Inches

27th Apr 2023, 01:06

From what I've heard the pilots couldn't see anything in the cockpit. The Pelair freighters don't have any contracts any more and are shortly to be sold off. The only thing it was carrying was engiNe parts to rescue a WT which had shut an engine down in QLD.

Something amiss with the right bleed/ACM could do that, pump smoke to the forward cabin, and it is vented under the right wing. Well handled if it was heavy smoke, from the pictures it could be repaired and fly again, probably better off on a pole somewhere though, it must be getting close to worth the sum of it's metal content. I haven't heard anything about the incident except what's on the news, so could be a number of electrical things in that wing root.

Ladloy

27th Apr 2023, 01:18

Something amiss with the right bleed/ACM could do that, pump smoke to the forward cabin, and it is vented under the right wing. Well handled if it was heavy smoke, from the pictures it could be repaired and fly again, probably better off on a pole somewhere though, it must be getting close to worth the sum of it's metal content. I haven't heard anything about the incident except what's on the news, so could be a number of electrical things in that wing root.
Whatever the cause it's a terrible scenario and hopefully the ATSB get involved so we get a real investigation into it. Rex are great at cover ups.

unobtanium

29th Apr 2023, 20:43

exploited overworked and underpaid pilot's engineer's leaving the company is not a labor shortage is a self kick in the nut's and the only have theirselves to blame!

dejapoo

30th Apr 2023, 01:29

Whatever the cause it's a terrible scenario and hopefully the ATSB get involved so we get a real investigation into it. Rex are great at cover ups.

Mildly defamatory. I despise them as much as the next but be careful lad ! LKH spies everywhere... even in the lunch room at KrAPPA

Ladloy

30th Apr 2023, 02:32

Mildly defamatory. I despise them as much as the next but be careful lad ! LKH spies everywhere... even in the lunch room at KrAPPA
I don't work for them anymore. Couldn't care less.

I'd love to know why things like the Griffith 4wd event had never been reported to the ATSB but other, much smaller events that didn't include management pilots made its way into a report.