Virgin changing us to an EARLIER flight with only 90 minutes notice

[slats11]

Virgin is succeeding where the greenies have failed - they are discouraging people from flying.

Ironic for an industry which has requested and received so much taxpayer support the last few years.

Monday 30/5/22, my relatives were returning from SYD to MEL having flown up the Sunday for a Monday morning funeral.
They were booked on VOZ898 departing SYD at 2200, so we had some time together after the funeral.
At 1830, we get an email advising that 898 has been cancelled, and have been moved to VOZ888 departing at 2000. From our location, we could not make that flight which was to start boarding only 1 hour after the email was sent!
We called Virgin, and endured a (predictably) long hold. It was "explained" that the weather in MEL meant flight arrivals late yesterday evening had been cancelled. A quick check of FlightAware showed that was a lie.
We were then told that we could catch a later flight from SYD to Gold Coast, and then a flight from Gold Coast to MEL. So a plane could apparently fly into MEL late last night after all - so long as the plane had warmed up in Queensland before flying to MEL.
We then asked Virgin to transfer us to the 2200 Qantas flight which was still scheduled and showing capacity. "No, we can't do that."
So we had no choice but to paid $600 last minute for 3 seats one-way on the 2200 Qantas flight. If we couldn't make the 2000 flight, Virgin said the only alternative was to stay in SYD last night and return this morning.We then discovered that the 2000 VOZ888 had departed SYD at 2200 (at the scheduled time for VOZ898). This seemed curious in light of previous information that Wx had caused the cancellation of VOZ898.

It's impossible to speak with anyone, and you are left on hold with "longer than usual wait times."

Not good enough Virgin. Not nearly good enough.

[chookcooker]

Sounds like the weather was causing aircraft to run behind schedule.
The 2200 would have been too late for Sydney curfew. So cancelled.
They offered you the only available one left at 2000 scheduled. You couldn’t make it. So they offered you via Gold Coast or the next day. Not sure what you want?

[Red69]

Virgin is succeeding where the greenies have failed - they are discouraging people from flying.

Ironic for an industry which has requested and received so much taxpayer support the last few years.

Monday 30/5/22, my relatives were returning from SYD to MEL having flown up the Sunday for a Monday morning funeral.
They were booked on VOZ898 departing SYD at 2200, so we had some time together after the funeral.
At 1830, we get an email advising that 898 has been cancelled, and have been moved to VOZ888 departing at 2000. From our location, we could not make that flight which was to start boarding only 1 hour after the email was sent!
We called Virgin, and endured a (predictably) long hold. It was "explained" that the weather in MEL meant flight arrivals late yesterday evening had been cancelled. A quick check of FlightAware showed that was a lie.
We were then told that we could catch a later flight from SYD to Gold Coast, and then a flight from Gold Coast to MEL. So a plane could apparently fly into MEL late last night after all - so long as the plane had warmed up in Queensland before flying to MEL.
We then asked Virgin to transfer us to the 2200 Qantas flight which was still scheduled and showing capacity. "No, we can't do that."
So we had no choice but to paid $600 last minute for 3 seats one-way on the 2200 Qantas flight. If we couldn't make the 2000 flight, Virgin said the only alternative was to stay in SYD last night and return this morning.We then discovered that the 2000 VOZ888 had departed SYD at 2200 (at the scheduled time for VOZ898). This seemed curious in light of previous information that Wx had caused the cancellation of VOZ898.

It's impossible to speak with anyone, and you are left on hold with "longer than usual wait times."

Not good enough Virgin. Not nearly good enough.

This is a pilot rumour forum. Not a passenger have a whinge forum. Go complain on social media where someone from the company can actually address your concerns.

[tossbag]

Yeah, get off here mate, or show us your pilots licence to confirm access where you can then whinge to your hearts content.

[slats11]

This is a pilot rumour forum. Not a passenger have a whinge forum. Go complain on social media where someone from the company can actually address your concerns.

That would be good in theory. Unfortunately Virgin have not replied to repeated emails nor phone calls. Nor has Jayne. Hence my post.

You pilots may as well know what your front of house looks like. It sucks.

A quick look at anyone of several product review sites demonstrates this is a wider business failing - not an isolated weather issue.

Replying to above
If they had said the 2200 was cancelled and we were rebooked on the 2000 - which will be running late..... no problem.
However they insisted we be at airport by 1920 for the 2000 - which then departed at 2200.

You would understand the problem if it happened to you.

Businesses that don't understand their customers often become ex-businesses.

[fineline]

Businesses that don't understand their customers often become ex-businesses.

Virgin: Been there, done that.

It sounds frustrating, but what can they do better other than answer the phone more quickly? (Which is one of my pet peeves, especially banks...) They can't book you on Qantas, and may not have know the 2000 would depart 2200. Only thing I can see is maybe pay airport hotel for catching the next days flight, I've had that a couple of times on internationals but it's a stretch on domestic.

[turbantime]

Clearly you have no idea around the disruptions being caused in SE Australia due to the westerlies. If you were an aviation professional in any capacity, you would. I concur with the others, find a more appropriate platform to air your grievances.

[slats11]

It's not an issue of Wx disruptions. It is about communication.

Anyway as you say I am not a pilot. I am a critical care physician (who devoted significant time on these pages in early 2020 trying to explain what was coming down the pike). I use to be a DAME (that juice wasn't worth the squeeze), and also served with RAAF SR. I have many pilot friends (both QF and VA) with whom I sympathised during a long and uncertain furlough. So I believe I have slightly more than a passing everyday familiarity with aviation operations.

The airline front of house sucks. Don't blame me if it drags you down.

Anyway I'll leave you to it. At least I got more responses in 2 hours here than in 2 weeks from VA "customer service."

[turbantime]

It's not an issue of Wx disruptions. It is about communication.

Anyway as you say I am not a pilot. I am a critical care physician (who devoted significant time on these pages in early 2020 trying to explain what was coming down the pike). I use to be a DAME (that juice wasn't worth the squeeze), and also served with RAAF SR. I have many pilot friends (both QF and VA) with whom I sympathised during a long and uncertain furlough. So I believe I have slightly more than a passing everyday familiarity with aviation operations.

The airline front of house sucks. Don't blame me if it drags you down.

Anyway I'll leave you to it. At least I got more responses in 2 hours here than in 2 weeks from VA "customer service."
80 per cent of my family and close friends’ circle are in health varying in roles from consultants to nursing to OTs and physios. According to your reasoning, I should be able to pass judgement on their professions and workplace without rebuke. Do I? No. Do they on my profession? No.
You sound like a typical boomer senior doctor/consultant/surgeon (which my friends hate) that thinks the world revolves around them. Accept that sh*t happened on the day that wasn’t ideal, and most of all, it wasn’t personal.

[slats11]

You sound like a typical boomer senior doctor/consultant/surgeon (which my friends hate) that thinks the world revolves around them.
One of the long term consequences of Covid has been an increasingly polarised and intolerant society. We are more divided on age, ethnicity, SES, profession.... than previously. Divide and conquer.

According to your reasoning, I should be able to pass judgement on their professions and workplace without rebuke.
Your missing the point or creating a strawman - I'm not sure which.
I accept Wx cancellations if that is what it was
I wasn't passing judgement on a pilots decision to divert, or to reject a runway due to excessive x-wind, or any other operational decision. Never have and never will.
I was saying that it is piss poor for an airline to send an email (which you may not receive) at 1830 advising you that your flight is departing at 2000 instead of 2200. And it is.

Would I expect you to pass judgement on my clinical skills? Not really as you aren't a SME.
Would I expect you to pass judgement if my receptionist was inefficient, rude and dismissive? Sure, as this complaint falls within the purview of the lay public.

One sad legacy about 9/11 is that is has encouraged many (not all) airline personnel to see pax as complainers and potential threats - not paying customers. That attitude is a slippery slope that doesn't end well.

[Cypher]

Awwwwwww!!!!!

Poor didums.....!!!!!

why don't you take the bus? I think your more suited for that......
or even better.. go take Jet*

[Dehavillanddriver]

Crikey - cut the guy some slack!

I cant say I blame him - being told to move to a flight two hours earlier with only 90 minutes notice kind of sucks, particularly in Sydney where the travel times can make that sort of change near on impossible.

If it was me who had my flight changed like that I would be a tad annoyed - though I would have angled for them to pay accom for the night.

[a_ross84]

Yeah, get off here mate, or show us your pilots licence to confirm access where you can then whinge to your hearts content.


Calm you arrogance dude.

[Don Diego]

Pilot or not all he is commenting on is appalling customer service and the really sad news is that the other lot are no better.

[Recidivist]

Could be wrong, but I suspect that tossbag was taking the piss! But thanks to you and DHdriver for speaking up - I'm of the view that the OP's "whinge" was quite appropriate (although the SLF forum may have been more appropriate) and some of the replies from "professional pilots" were disappointing to this SLF who also has a long-term history with, and interest in, the aviation world.

Many of us had the backs of pilots during periods of nasty treatment by Head Offices - is a bit of respect in return too much to ask?

Edit: Sorry, replying to the post by a_ross84.

[megle2]

Slats, thanks for your post, apologies for those “professional pilots” disrespectfull replies

[Fonz121]

The airline front of house sucks. Don't blame me if it drags you down.

You're preaching to the choir man! We have to deal with this level of monumental incompetence on a daily basis. We're quite often finishing shifts many hours late, and whilst this doesn't usually impact us financially as directly as it did in your scenario, it's extremely disruptive to our lives and families, which is priceless really.

In a way, I envy passengers like your family who only get screwed over once in a blue moon.

Of course none of this excuses the treatment of your family. I'd be well pissed off in their situation as well.

Apologies for some of the more uncouth replies.

[redsnail]

I am sure the OP just needed to vent. It's a pretty poor show by the airline to suddenly shift a booking with little time to rearrange plans.
Do you have access to a financial advise column in a newspaper? Often they can get a much better and faster response than by going through the so-called official channels which appear to be designed to dissuade people from making legitimate claims. Failing that, there's Twitter.

[SilverSleuth]

Absolutely a waste of time whinging here. No one at virgin cares and to be honest neither do the pilots who work there.

[Trevor the lover]

Look at all the Virgin pilots telling Slats to pull his head in. Fark off. You're a bunch of d!cks. I am a professional pilot which apparently you have to be to comment here. And I travel a lot as pax for my duties. No airline FARKS me around more than VA. It is a **** airline, end of story.

Media today reporting big delays at check in due long weekend. That is totally ops normal for VA. Do self serve check in, then line up for 50 minutes just to do bag drop. What a **** fight. Never differs. So many of my flights get cancelled, QF love to do that too.

Go for your life guys, shoot me down, but I'm with slats -
​​​​****, low cost, bottom shelf, poor excuse for an airline.

​​​​​

[lucille]

Slats11 is almost a 100% correct. His error was in narrowing it down to just Virgin when really it’s the entire industry which makes it their mission to piss off as many passengers as possible.

Must just be the new bully boy Aussie way of customer service, who can forget the QF CEO berating his customers for not being “match fit” because his check in/baggage handling operation was incompetent. Blame the customer and keep beating them up. North Korea has a lot to learn from Australia when it comes to the mistreating of customers.

[slats11]

Some of the unhinged vitriol here reaffirms my suspicion that many in the community are not doing particularly well. I can not recall society's resilience being this low. This is an international phenomenon - friends and professional colleagues around the world assure me it is the same everywhere..

If it was a routine business meeting that got screwed around at the end of the day, yeah OK. That happens. Deal with it.

Family members had come up to Sydney for a funeral that Monday. We had decided to have an early dinner together in Sydney before I dropped them to the airport for a flight back home. Something more pleasant after a pretty ordinary day. They all had work commitments in Melbourne on Tuesday morning. Instead of catching up for dinner, we spent the time trying to get through to VA and then rebooking flights on QF.

Perhaps it was unrealistic to plan on them catching last flight back and being able to work the next day. But we have long all taken air travel for granted, and so had hoped things were getting back to normal.

The unilateral nature of the communication was infuriating - an email from an unmonitored address, and an hour on hold.

I suspect what happened is that Wx during the day meant the 2200 wasn't able to operate. Both the 2000 and the 2200 were significantly light that they could get all pax onto one flight. If they could contact all the 2200 pax and get them there early, then the flight could leave earlier than 2200 - which would be a shorter delay for those on the 2000 flight.
That sort of makes sense.
I presume not all the 2200 pax saw the email, turned uo for the 2200 flight, and all they noted was a change in flight number. Pays not to read email.

Anyway, I'm working all 3 days this weekend.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/complete-mayhem-as-healthcare-system-buckles-under-pressure-20220603-p5aqtj.html

So don't get sick or injured.
The problem now isn't C19. Its all the latent problems that have been exposed by C19. The workforce is now burnt out and disillusioned after 30 months of this. And they are starting to walk away.

Meanwhile, many office workers in both the corporate and government sector are enjoying their work:life balance and WFH and saying "we should have done this years ago." Customer service is at an all time low, as exemplified by VA here.

We are not all in this together, and that is a key reason society is splintering.

And things are just getting started. More supply chain disruptions, stagflation, rising interest rates, wages falling behind, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, and a polarised fragmented angry society. Good luck Albo - you are going to need it. In spades.

[Head..er..wind]

Nice measured response Slats; shame some of earlier responding egos couldn’t get over themselves. Trevor and a few others summed it up nicely though - the industry is pretty stuffed but there are some awesome individuals still plugging away with total professionalism.

[PoppaJo]

The regulators are planning on looking at airlines and customer protections later this year, is much that needs to come from that, management will be jumping up and down claiming business will be unviable as they now need to actually look after passengers. We probably need to go down the path like the EU, customer receives significant compensation should they be inconvenienced. At that point they generally see how much they have underinvested in scheduling and rostering software, many scheduling problems arise from poor planning.

All are equally as bad. My own employer has screwed me over on one occasion so much I emailed the said boss who then apologized and offered me a cash compensation. To Virgin’s credit, on the one occasion they cancelled and offered very few options, I asked for them to send me half way across the country to then reconnect to the destination, they happily did that.

[slats11]

Anyone from VA able to confirm this story? Surely not.

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/no-higher-prize-than-lunch-with-jayne-hrdlicka-20220425-p5afzk

[twentyelevens]

Anyone from VA able to confirm this story? Surely not.

https://www.afr.com/rear-window/no-higher-prize-than-lunch-with-jayne-hrdlicka-20220425-p5afzk

Yes thats true.
Also true was that last prize was two lunches with that Woman.

[Red69]

From what I've been told, it's true. Sounds a tad tone def but seems to be getting the results her superiors are after.

[Scooter Rassmussin]

Qantas is no better promising flights every 1/2 hour to Sydney then cancelling with up to 2 hours or more disruption . Not to mention changing terminals when Jetstar cancel and you're shuffled to Qantas or vise versa.

[TimmyTee]

no dog in the fight but, this thread:

*MASH music starts, in choppers Qantas Angels & shareholders*

[tossbag]

Calm you arrogance dude.

It was sarcasm d!ckhead.

[lamax]

My boss always reminded his pilots that their paymaster was the passenger and not the boss, maybe that should be kept in mind when criticizing customers who have less that satisfactory customer service. On reading some of the comments on this forum over the years I suspect that " professional pilot" in some cases describes a personal who is paid for their work and nothing beyond that.

[Slippery_Pete]

Hi Slats.

I’ve no doubt the childish responses here have affirmed that you made the right decision by working in medicine rather than aviation :rolleyes:

Regrettably, I chose the opposite to you and have lifelong regret.

Your situation with VA sounds sh*t. But it’s not abnormal, or isolated to Virgin. All Australian airlines have these problems, and Qantas seem the worst of the lot atm. All Australian airlines are a sh*t show.

No baggage handlers, understaffed engineering, crap communication, joke call centres - and most importantly management who ignore these issues and just walk away with their bonuses.

They really are ignorant to how pissed off people are - but as tech crew, we can’t change it. We don’t control culture, or honesty, or customer service. And most of us who are professional pilots are very embarrassed by it all.

I have a friend who called me last week. She’s had her Japan flights cancelled 5 times in the last 3 years. Each time, she has spent 8 hours on hold trying to rebook with her credit as they refused a refund. Last week, despite saying she desperately wanted to support an Australian carrier, she booked with Air Japan and says she will never travel with an Australian airline again. I asked what would need for her to change that opinion and she said “when I don’t have to spend 40 hours on hold while simultaneously watching a news article on the airline’s CEO buying a new $19m property in Sydney, I’ll think about it.”

Yes it’s bad. And yes it’s going to get worse before it gets better. Most of my colleagues think Australia is closer to a big airline hull loss than its ever been before. The Swiss cheese is lining up. Loading errors. Baggage carts driven into fuselages. Pilots running 2-3 hours late and fatigued every single day because there’s a 20 knot westerly in Sydney or no tug drivers in Melbourne.

If nothing else, I’m glad you were able to attend the funeral and spend time with your family.

[VC9]

As a pilot who has been flying for >50 years I don't understand why I'm able to handle a 30-35 knot crosswind in Canberra and Brisbane, but due to ATC requirements, I'm considered unable to handle anything greater than 20 knots in Sydney and Melbourne.
Time for Airservices Australia (Service, now there's an oxymoron) to stop this ridiculous situation that leads to major delays throughout the entire airline network, that's all airlines.
Give me 25-30 knots of crosswind on runway 34L&R any day rather than the mechanical turbulence that is generated on approach to runway 25 in those conditions.

[neville_nobody]

The regulators are planning on looking at airlines and customer protections later this year, is much that needs to come from that, management will be jumping up and down claiming business will be unviable as they now need to actually look after passengers. We probably need to go down the path like the EU, customer receives significant compensation should they be inconvenienced. At that point they generally see how much they have underinvested in scheduling and rostering software, many scheduling problems arise from poor planning..

The government won't agree to that as they are part of the problem. Curfews, ridiculous rule set, poor ATC hamstrung by stupid rules, lack of infrastructure etc etc

[Don Diego]

Oi VC9, the galahs would only offer you the 30kt crosswind if you were OEI.

[neville_nobody]

Oi VC9, the galahs would only offer you the 30kt crosswind if you were OEI.

Previously they used to make it available if you wanted it and would slot you in behind the arrivals on 25 but now that's to dangerous. As you say it's only available in an emergency....:ugh:

[Chronic Snoozer]

I asked what would need for her to change that opinion and she said “when I don’t have to spend 40 hours on hold while simultaneously watching a news article on the airline’s CEO buying a new $19m property in Sydney, I’ll think about it.”

Prescient. If you want the big bucks, then the buck stops with you.

[rcoight]

Wow. I am genuinely gobsmacked at some of the responses on here to what is a perfectly reasonable complaint.

Sounds like some of you legends forget who pays your wages.

[neville_nobody]

Wow. I am genuinely gobsmacked at some of the responses on here to what is a perfectly reasonable complaint. Sounds like some of you legends forget who pays your wages.

I suggest you make yourself familiar with this piece of legislation as it is the core of the original complaint: https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00045 (https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00045)

[rcoight]

That may explain the root cause of the problem, but it doesn’t explain the extraordinary responses from some of the so called professionals on here.

[turbantime]

That may explain the root cause of the problem, but it doesn’t explain the extraordinary responses from some of the so called professionals on here.
Re-reading the original post, I still find it adversarial and written by someone with an inflated ego. If that’s the tone of the complaint to VA, no wonder they haven’t received a reply.

I was going to cut and post bits of the original post to break it down such as “apparently the aeroplane needs to warm up in Queensland before going to Mel” when being offered to fly through OOL, and “we asked to have us changed to QF but they refused” (no sh*t Sherlock).

It was a typically whiny post and when OP gets told to pull their head in, they start back pedalling and trying to engage empathetically to which you all end up falling for. It’s the atypical narcissist that weaves the narrative to manipulate others, which I must admit, they have done extremely well, I’m just not falling for it having being in a relationship where this type of toxic behaviour was common.

That’ll be it from me on this thread. Go nuts, thankfully these days I’ll be too busy flying/working and fwiw, I’m extremely glad that all the pax are up and flying again these days after the past two years.

[slats11]

It was a typically whiny post and when OP gets told to pull their head in, they start back pedalling and trying to engage empathetically to which you all end up falling for.

Nonsense. It’s a customer service failure. End of story.

If I booked you in for a medical procedure (for which you had paid in advance) on an afternoon list, and then sent an email (from an unmonitored address) telling you i had changed you to the morning list and you needed to change plans and get there in 60 minutes and I didn’t answer the phone ….. I expect you would be unhappy.
Why would this be any different?

The reference to warming up in Qld was because the VA call centre guy “explained” the issue as Melbourne Wx and all flights stopped. Which clearly wasn’t true if in the next sentence he could get us back via Gold Coast.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10921759/Qantas-Passengers-workers-unleash-airline-blame-CEO-Alan-Joyce.html#l4n7unuxajh1hm5r4fb

This is more of the same indifference towards the paying customer.

I have been loyal to QF for years (loyal enough for lifetime Gold anyway). That used to be nice. But now I’m inclined to use Emirates or Singapore or JAL.

Indifference and contempt towards customers rarely ends well. The sad thing is that good operational staff will pay the price for poorly performing customer service / call centre staff.

[TimmyTee]

Nonsense. It’s a customer service failure. End of story.

If I booked you in for a medical procedure (for which you had paid in advance) on an afternoon list, and then sent an email (from an unmonitored address) telling you i had changed you to the morning list and you needed to change plans and get there in 60 minutes and I didn’t answer the phone ….. I expect you would be unhappy.


I’d be annoyed and frustrated, and given the importance of the procedure, I’d do what I could to make it. But I sure as hell wouldn’t go hunting for an equivalent AMA doctors forum (they’re smart enough to not have a “public” one for professional members) and go on and on with my woe is me issues on there.

And even if they did have the equivalent, I wouldn’t expect them to respond to my personal issues with hospital admin on a professional doctor forum, particularly as I’m not one myself.

[slats11]

But I sure as hell wouldn’t go hunting for an equivalent AMA doctors forum (they’re smart enough to not have a “public” one for professional members) and go on and on with my woe is me issues on there.

Perhaps not. But you would have an independent body to complain to (Health Care Complaints Commission in NSW) - most HCCC complaints are about poor communication rather than poor medical treatment per se.

Anyway, the attitude of some here is why I am concerned about Australia long term.

What exactly are we good at?

We have a long deserved reputation for poor and dismissive customer service - under the mistaken guise of egalitarianism. It’s the “take it or leave it” attitude exemplified by some here.
We don’t make things anymore?
We don’t spend enough on R&D to be good at innovation and the export of IP.
We mostly rely on mining and agriculture - this will decline for various reasons in the years ahead. China is close to having enough steel (it’s phenomenal urbanisation is now reaching a plateau). There are powerful geopolitical forces at play, and globalisation is over (for now).
We used to sell poor quality tertiary education to overseas “students” - who are not interested in the education, but are only enrolled for the all important work-rights visa and a stepping stone towards permanent residency- and thence daisy chaining extended family into the country. In the process, we are eroding standards at our universities - now quickly slipping down global rankings. But Covid has closed that industry down.
We do buy and sell over-priced housing to each other - although that also looks troubled.

the world doesn’t owe us a living - a lesson I fear our children will learn in the years ahead.

[PammyAnderson]

Slats…..Time to let it all go mate. you’ve vented. No one really cares. Move on to product review and whinge about your toaster.

[slats11]

Fair enough. As you state, I’ve had a fair say.

But if you think our problems are behind us, you may be disappointed. Covid was just act 1.

And if you think the pissed off travelling public is going to support the aviation industry as much next time, well you may be disappointed there also.

[tossbag]

And if you think the pissed off travelling public is going to support the aviation industry as much next time, well you may be disappointed there also.

The pissed off public have very short memories, apart from the fact it's not them that supports airlines in these times, it's lobbyists achieving outcomes from politicians, yes, yes it's taxpayer money but they don't get a say.

And they will jump on aircraft the moment the government lets them. Their short memories retain Bali bar and beach memories.

[Icarus2001]

But if you think our problems are behind us, you may be disappointed. Covid was just act 1. Okay I’ll bite….what comes next?

[slats11]

Okay I’ll bite….what comes next?

A perfect storm of
1. CPI inflation - food, energy, certain commodities (which will push correlated stocks up).
2. Rising rates to try and get CPI inflation under control. This (and quantitative tightening) are the only tools that central banks have, and so they are deploying them. They won't be highly effective however. Previous waves of CPI inflation were often due to increased demand - so jacking rates helped by curbing demand of discretionary items. This time, CPI inflation is due to reduced supply (China shutting down, end of globalisation, Ukraine). Putting up interest rates isn't going to reduce your need for food or petrol - it will just take it harder to meet these expenses.
3. Asset deflation due to increased interest rates - housing, certain stocks
4. "Poor effect." People spend when their house increases - they feel wealthy and can pull equity from their home. This is the wealth effect. The opposite is the poor effect - as interest rates increase and the value of housing falls. people aren't going to be buying cars, or planning expensive holidays etc. They will hunker down.

This is happening around the world

However Australia is especially poorly placed to weather this storm due to
1. Extraordinary high levels of household debt - due to all the cheap credit the past 15 years,. Interest rates have been at 5,000 (yes, 5,000) year lows according to Ban of England research (interest existed back then)
2. Some of the most expensive housing in the world
3. Many Australians are on variable rates, or short term (2-3 yr) fixed rates. In many places, interest rates are fixed for 10 years - or even the life of the loan.
4. A need to seriously think about defence for the first time in decades - defence spending will have to rise significantly as we contemplate living in a less certain world.

At the same time, the "Chinese miracle" is coming to the end. There has been an unprecedented demand for iron ore and coking coal as China transforms from a rural society to an urbanised society. The largest demographic shift the world has ever seen. However its over - China is now reaching the 70-75% plateau at which societies cease this urbanising (some people always stay in the rural areas). China is also moving to steel recycling rather than making new steel. Sp iron and coking coal exports are going to fall. Hard.

We also look destined to experience global famine on a scale not seen for a long time. China now holds 50-60% of the world wheat stocks - China can see what's coming down the pike. China and Russia (by far the 2 largest exporters of fertilisers) are both restricting exports = less grains and other plants = less feed for humans and animals. There are also huge energy inputs into food - transport obviously, but also production (greenhouses) and processing food - these energy costs will reduce production and increase costs. So we are going to have less food, and its going to cost a lot more. This will cause civil unrest within countries, but also at a global level - think of Europe with a billion hungry Africans seeking food.

My strong suspicion is that Covid is not done with us either. A very strange virus that emerged at a very interesting time. Although not insignificant, we have way overestimated the risks. Our counter-measures (which were disproportionate due to a flawed risk assessment) have caused supply chain disruptions, reckless momentary policy (modern monetary theory) and inflation (whocouldaknown).

Chickens are coming home to roost. Covid? - you ain't seen nothing yet. Get ready.

[ad-astra]

So the cancellation of VOZ 898 led to the demise of the planet we now know!
I'm pretty sure those family members were looking forward to 2 less hours of the stories of fire and brimstone.
A new era in thread drift.

[TimmyTee]

A perfect storm of
1. CPI inflation - food, energy, certain commodities (which will push correlated stocks up).
2. Rising rates to try and get CPI inflation under control. This (and quantitative tightening) are the only tools that central banks have, and so they are deploying them. They won't be highly effective however. Previous waves of CPI inflation were often due to increased demand - so jacking rates helped by curbing demand of discretionary items. This time, CPI inflation is due to reduced supply (China shutting down, end of globalisation, Ukraine). Putting up interest rates isn't going to reduce your need for food or petrol - it will just take it harder to meet these expenses.
3. Asset deflation due to increased interest rates - housing, certain stocks
4. "Poor effect." People spend when their house increases - they feel wealthy and can pull equity from their home. This is the wealth effect. The opposite is the poor effect - as interest rates increase and the value of housing falls. people aren't going to be buying cars, or planning expensive holidays etc. They will hunker down.

This is happening around the world

However Australia is especially poorly placed to weather this storm due to
1. Extraordinary high levels of household debt - due to all the cheap credit the past 15 years,. Interest rates have been at 5,000 (yes, 5,000) year lows according to Ban of England research (interest existed back then)
2. Some of the most expensive housing in the world
3. Many Australians are on variable rates, or short term (2-3 yr) fixed rates. In many places, interest rates are fixed for 10 years - or even the life of the loan.
4. A need to seriously think about defence for the first time in decades - defence spending will have to rise significantly as we contemplate living in a less certain world.

At the same time, the "Chinese miracle" is coming to the end. There has been an unprecedented demand for iron ore and coking coal as China transforms from a rural society to an urbanised society. The largest demographic shift the world has ever seen. However its over - China is now reaching the 70-75% plateau at which societies cease this urbanising (some people always stay in the rural areas). China is also moving to steel recycling rather than making new steel. Sp iron and coking coal exports are going to fall. Hard.

We also look destined to experience global famine on a scale not seen for a long time. China now holds 50-60% of the world wheat stocks - China can see what's coming down the pike. China and Russia (by far the 2 largest exporters of fertilisers) are both restricting exports = less grains and other plants = less feed for humans and animals. There are also huge energy inputs into food - transport obviously, but also production (greenhouses) and processing food - these energy costs will reduce production and increase costs. So we are going to have less food, and its going to cost a lot more. This will cause civil unrest within countries, but also at a global level - think of Europe with a billion hungry Africans seeking food.

My strong suspicion is that Covid is not done with us either. A very strange virus that emerged at a very interesting time. Although not insignificant, we have way overestimated the risks. Our counter-measures (which were disproportionate due to a flawed risk assessment) have caused supply chain disruptions, reckless momentary policy (modern monetary theory) and inflation (whocouldaknown).

Chickens are coming home to roost. Covid? - you ain't seen nothing yet. Get ready.

now pass me that funny tasting cordial!

[slats11]

now pass me that funny tasting cordial!

Yeah, but the thing about exponential threats is that they look small and manageable - until they suddenly aren’t.

Anyway, prepare to embrace a changing world. If you don’t, be prepared for that changing world to embrace you.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/06/ardern-horror-as-reserve-bank-steers-new-zealand-into-recession/


https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/recession-alarm-bells-are-ringing-as-the-war-on-inflation-escalates-20220623-p5avxj.html (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/06/ardern-horror-as-reserve-bank-steers-new-zealand-into-recession/)

[Icarus2001]

Click Click Click

[tossbag]

slats, what you've got to understand is that a pilot does not like to be challenged, they especially don't like their intelligence being challenged. You're right though, the world is in for some pretty serious lessons shortly. First, governments around the world scared the **** out of everyone with a tool as simple as a respiratory virus that did what any other respiratory virus did, culled the weak, overweight and unhealthy. You want to fight a virus? Lose weight, do some exercise and live a healthy life. Now we're dealing with a so called environmental crisis, so if you haven't already scared the living **** out of your children with a flu, how about you do it with this 'crisis.' We now have a few generations scared ****less of multiple crises, just add a new crisis to the existing bull**** and you'll tip those generations over the edge. Never mind, as you allude, we're in for a bit of a ride over the next few years, the next crisis will be running out of paper to print new money.

[TimmyTee]

The tinfoil is strong in this poster

[slats11]

[QUOTE][Never mind, as you allude, we're in for a bit of a ride over the next few years/QUOTE]
It will be epic. Our grandkids will be learning about this - just as we learned about The Great Depression and WW2.

[QUOTE][color=#000000]the next crisis will be running out of paper to print new money./QUOTE]
Maybe. Although I think MMT is dead - that theory didn't last long. Even Yellen has admitted she was wrong about that. "Didn't fully understand...". Guess she's had a revelation and understands you can't print into supply fuelled inflation
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-admits-was-wrong-inflation-rcna31416

Two more revelations

It's been pretty obvious since Jan 20 SARS-CoV-2 was manmade. The fraud and disinformation around a natural origin was coordinated and large scale. Biggest fraud in history.
Even the WHO (initially besotted by China) is starting to question the origin, with Tedros allegedly recently conceding a lab origin was the most likely explanation.
This review is a bit technical, but seeks to analyse the evidence for each side. The only thing China snd USA currently have in common is covering this up.
https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/delete-deny-and-destroy-chinese-and-western-strategies-to-erase-covids-origin-are-being-exposed-by-independent-research/
Meanwhile, do you wonder why Fauci has (thankfully) gone quiet? Page 2 of this letter would certainly make you a bit nervous. See what happens after the mid-terms.
https://republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/02.14.22-Letter-to-Dr.-Anthony-Fauci.pdf

If you accept it was manmade, you have to decide if it was an accidental or deliberate release. When considering this, remember all the fear mongering and disinformation and propaganda from China .

Meanwhile, even the mainstream media is starting to question the benefit of lockdowns. They had never been endorsed by anyone anywhere prior to Jan 20. As recent as 2019, they were specifically rejected as a way of mitigating some future pandemic. The biggest psychological operation in history.
https://michaelpsenger.substack.com/p/the-mainstream-begins-to-see-lockdowns?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta
https://www.nber.org/papers/w30104
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/22/basket-case-britain-definitive-proof-lockdown-epic-mistake/

[josephfeatherweight]

This is an epic thread...
A new era in thread drift.
Hell, yeah!

[TimmyTee]

OP, surely you’ve lost all credibility, coming to a pilot forum, initially complaining about a negative passenger experience, and now preaching doomsday theories.
Maybe time for this thread to be taken out behind the old woodshed…

[tossbag]

Why Timmy? Can't handle the truth/evidence?

[the_rookie]

Geez your name is spot on

[tossbag]

haha, I like it. :ok: ;)

It doesn't take too much to wind up the whiny triggered.

[slats11]

4 months ago....

A perfect storm of
1. CPI inflation - food, energy, certain commodities (which will push correlated stocks up).
2. Rising rates to try and get CPI inflation under control. This (and quantitative tightening) are the only tools that central banks have, and so they are deploying them. They won't be highly effective however. Previous waves of CPI inflation were often due to increased demand - so jacking rates helped by curbing demand of discretionary items. This time, CPI inflation is due to reduced supply (China shutting down, end of globalisation, Ukraine). Putting up interest rates isn't going to reduce your need for food or petrol - it will just take it harder to meet these expenses.
3. Asset deflation due to increased interest rates - housing, certain stocks
4. "Poor effect." People spend when their house increases - they feel wealthy and can pull equity from their home. This is the wealth effect. The opposite is the poor effect - as interest rates increase and the value of housing falls. people aren't going to be buying cars, or planning expensive holidays etc. They will hunker down.

This is happening around the world

However Australia is especially poorly placed to weather this storm due to
1. Extraordinary high levels of household debt - due to all the cheap credit the past 15 years,. Interest rates have been at 5,000 (yes, 5,000) year lows according to Ban of England research (interest existed back then)
2. Some of the most expensive housing in the world
3. Many Australians are on variable rates, or short term (2-3 yr) fixed rates. In many places, interest rates are fixed for 10 years - or even the life of the loan.
4. A need to seriously think about defence for the first time in decades - defence spending will have to rise significantly as we contemplate living in a less certain world.

At the same time, the "Chinese miracle" is coming to the end. There has been an unprecedented demand for iron ore and coking coal as China transforms from a rural society to an urbanised society. The largest demographic shift the world has ever seen. However its over - China is now reaching the 70-75% plateau at which societies cease this urbanising (some people always stay in the rural areas). China is also moving to steel recycling rather than making new steel. Sp iron and coking coal exports are going to fall. Hard.

We also look destined to experience global famine on a scale not seen for a long time. China now holds 50-60% of the world wheat stocks - China can see what's coming down the pike. China and Russia (by far the 2 largest exporters of fertilisers) are both restricting exports = less grains and other plants = less feed for humans and animals. There are also huge energy inputs into food - transport obviously, but also production (greenhouses) and processing food - these energy costs will reduce production and increase costs. So we are going to have less food, and its going to cost a lot more. This will cause civil unrest within countries, but also at a global level - think of Europe with a billion hungry Africans seeking food.

My strong suspicion is that Covid is not done with us either. A very strange virus that emerged at a very interesting time. Although not insignificant, we have way overestimated the risks. Our counter-measures (which were disproportionate due to a flawed risk assessment) have caused supply chain disruptions, reckless momentary policy (modern monetary theory) and inflation (whocouldaknown).

Chickens are coming home to roost. Covid? - you ain't seen nothing yet. Get ready.


4 months on......

1. Inflation at 40 year highs. And hiking rates and QT aren't working. Whocouldaknown.
Anyway US Fed will keep hiking as it doesn't have any other options.
Australia RBA will follow US Fed up but at a slower rate - Aust is far more vulnerable to rising rates with variable or 2 year fixed, while most US mortgages are fixed for the duration.
More house price falls ahead.
Aust $ will fall due to widening gap between US and Aust rates = cost of imports (especially oil) up.
And inflation will continue - deglobalisation, Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, energy shortage, food shortage
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/16/us-inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rate-hikes
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-inflation-soars-to-40-year-high-pushes-fed-to-rate-hike-20221013-p5bppl
At least Yellen has admitted she was wrong about inflation.
Because Biden has forgotten he ever said it was transitory 15 months ago.
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/01/1102364460/yellen-inflation

2. The energy crisis is getting more serious with industry shutting and energy rationing in Europe as we head into winter.
UK has told its citizens they can sit in council libraries all day this winter to keep warm.
Germany is re-opening coal power stations - pollution and global warming are the very least of Europe's concerns right now
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-energy-u-turn-coal-instead-of-gas/a-62709160
A state actor destroyed Nordstream 1 and 2, so that's the end of Russian gas into Germany
This will take years to fix - the immediate problem is this winter, but expect 2-3 years (at least) until this is resolved.

3. Energy and food production are inextricably entwined with interdependencies presents at multiple levels.
To the extent we have an energy crisis we will have a food crisis.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1126771
Russia has hinted it can drive millions of hungry refugees from Africa into Europe to destabilise it.

4. Covid
Lancet Covid Commission report is out.
All options about origin remain on the table. However, Sachs (Chair of commission) is pretty certain it is manmade, and there has been disinformation by US and China. .
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/08/why-the-chair-of-the-lancets-covid-19-commission-thinks-the-us-government-is-preventing-a-real-investigation-into-the-pandemic
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

5. Ukraine war.
Russia threatening nukes - can't see that, and I suspect he is warning NATO to keep out of it.
China will be the long term winner in Ukraine, and will gain a lot of influence over various Stans.

6. China
Has lots of problems (a faltering economy and a disastrous demographic profile).
Desperate countries can become dangerous (parallels with Germany in the 1930's)

7. Society
We are starting to see what happens when you disrupt a society.
Health and education systems are under a lot of pressure - little to do with Covid, and a lot to do with everything else.
Aviation still looks to be in a mess - which is what started this thread
Kids education has been impacted these 3 years. Not for every kid, sure. But is has for enough kids, and will affect them for the next 50 years.
The psychological health and resilience of many in society are poor, especially kids and young adults. This is appearing in many forms - including "long Covid'
We ain't going back to 2019 - many can't & almost have PTSD, and many others won't

Tossbag is right.
slats, what you've got to understand is that a pilot does not like to be challenged, they especially don't like their intelligence being challenged. You're right though, the world is in for some pretty serious lessons shortly. First, governments around the world scared the **** out of everyone with a tool as simple as a respiratory virus that did what any other respiratory virus did, culled the weak, overweight and unhealthy. You want to fight a virus? Lose weight, do some exercise and live a healthy life. Now we're dealing with a so called environmental crisis, so if you haven't already scared the living **** out of your children with a flu, how about you do it with this 'crisis.' We now have a few generations scared ****less of multiple crises, just add a new crisis to the existing bull**** and you'll tip those generations over the edge. Never mind, as you allude, we're in for a bit of a ride over the next few years, the next crisis will be running out of paper to print new money.

And you still ain't seen nothing yet.
Get prepared.

[AerialPerspective]

Virgin: Been there, done that.

It sounds frustrating, but what can they do better other than answer the phone more quickly? (Which is one of my pet peeves, especially banks...) They can't book you on Qantas, and may not have know the 2000 would depart 2200. Only thing I can see is maybe pay airport hotel for catching the next days flight, I've had that a couple of times on internationals but it's a stretch on domestic.

They can book you on Qantas, they just choose not to. Qantas on the other hand, if there's no other option, WILL FIM people to VA. VA are one of those 'special people' (organisations) that think they can exist in the aviation industry but follow none of its rules/norms. Friends at Air NZ told me it's not just the profit stuff that led them to give VA the flick. All the time they owned 25%, they would send pax to VA via FIM, VA would send them back and this little game would start between the two, VA either utterly incapable of knowing what to do or whatever. Air NZ told me they got to the point where they'd just send the disrupted NZ pax to QF because QF would check them in, send them on their way and then use the NZ Boarding pass stubs to reconcile and get the FIM from NZ.

It was a different story when VA had problems, they'd practically demand that NZ drop everything and fix VA's problem or take its pax.

As to the OP comment. My ex and daughters went to SYD for a football game one weekend back in May. No advice, arrived at the airport in SYD and their flight was cancelled. VA's response was bad luck, you're booked tomorrow, not our fault, find your own accommodation.

They went for a walk around the terminal and someone who actually gave a rats a-se asked them if they were OK. She, while not ideal, booked them to BNE to catch a BNE-MEL flight. Not ideal as I say, but got them back to MEL after midnight. If they hadn't have found that one nice person (ought to have her stuffed as Basil Fawlty would say), they would have missed a day of work had to pay for a hotel, etc. etc.

Pretty average. But worth telling to balance all the vitriol Qantas gets lately.

[RENURPP]

Virgin is succeeding where the greenies have failed - they are discouraging people from flying.

Ironic for an industry which has requested and received so much taxpayer support the last few years.

Monday 30/5/22, my relatives were returning from SYD to MEL having flown up the Sunday for a Monday morning funeral.
They were booked on VOZ898 departing SYD at 2200, so we had some time together after the funeral.
At 1830, we get an email advising that 898 has been cancelled, and have been moved to VOZ888 departing at 2000. From our location, we could not make that flight which was to start boarding only 1 hour after the email was sent!
We called Virgin, and endured a (predictably) long hold. It was "explained" that the weather in MEL meant flight arrivals late yesterday evening had been cancelled. A quick check of FlightAware showed that was a lie.
We were then told that we could catch a later flight from SYD to Gold Coast, and then a flight from Gold Coast to MEL. So a plane could apparently fly into MEL late last night after all - so long as the plane had warmed up in Queensland before flying to MEL.
We then asked Virgin to transfer us to the 2200 Qantas flight which was still scheduled and showing capacity. "No, we can't do that."
So we had no choice but to paid $600 last minute for 3 seats one-way on the 2200 Qantas flight. If we couldn't make the 2000 flight, Virgin said the only alternative was to stay in SYD last night and return this morning.We then discovered that the 2000 VOZ888 had departed SYD at 2200 (at the scheduled time for VOZ898). This seemed curious in light of previous information that Wx had caused the cancellation of VOZ898.

It's impossible to speak with anyone, and you are left on hold with "longer than usual wait times."

Not good enough Virgin. Not nearly good enough.
I hear you and share your frustration.
it’s not only Virgin, Qantas is NO better. In fact very few large organisations deal with customer service well unfortunately.

[slats11]

it’s not only Virgin, Qantas is NO better. In fact very few large organisations deal with customer service well unfortunately.

Whocouldaknown that 3 years of seeing every other person as a potential cause for your demise, WFH, social isolations, QR codes everywhere, perspex screens, masks, moving to online communication (including an email that your flight has been cancelled and you need to get to YSSY in 45 minutes in the pouting rain) ..... could possibly lead to reduced customer service. It was already going downhill, yes. But Covid sure exacerbated it.

This is interesting. New paper from Ioannidis (world renowned epidemiologist) finding that the infection fatality rate from Covid was WAY lower than assumed. Way way lower.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.11.22280963v1.full
https://michaelpsenger.substack.com/p/new-study-from-ioannidis-covids-ifr

It was obvious back in 2020 from Diamond Princess, USS Theodore Roosevelt & prison studies that the IFR was pretty low. All 3 settings had a “confined population", and so it was easy to measure IFR directly. About 0.5 - 1% on Diamond Princess - lot of elderly westerners (mean age of pax about 70) with extensive comorbidities. And way lower in other settings (TR and prisons tend to be young populations).

Anyway, these are Ioannidis's calculations for IFR based on 31 national seroprevalence studies
0.0003% at 0-19 years (3 deaths per million infections)
0.003% at 20-29 years (30 per million)
0.011% at 30-39 years (110 per million)
0.035% at 40-49 years (350 per million)
0.129% at 50-59 years (1,290 per million)
0.501% at 60-69 years. (5,010 per million)
This comes out to 0.035% for those aged 0-59 and 0.095% for those aged 0-69.

That was pre-vaccination and pre-Omicron. You can divide these numbers by a factor of 5 (maybe 10) today.

Anyway, death is in the young-middle aged is (fortunately) pretty rare. And even rarer in the Han population.
It's strange how often Wuhan security cameras captured people dropping dead in the street. Fortunately the rest of the world was spared these apocalyptic scenes.
Tis a strange world.