The Future of Hong Kong

[Sam Ting Wong]

HKIA (again) busiest cargo airport in the world 2021.

https://www.aircargonews.net/cargo-airport/hong-kong-is-top-cargo-airport-in-2021/


With the 18 000 000 000 US$ expansion finished by 2024, from 2025 onwards every year until 2030 we will see a new pax record for HKIA.

Europe and US will see higher inflation rates than Asia. The EURO will remain weak because US will raise interests relative higher.

Tax will go up in Europe to pay for Putin and Corona. Asia will use Russia as a commodity source just like Africa and benefit from sanctions. Russia will become dependent on China and India. Intra-Asian trade will surge. China will be the number one economy in the world, India number two, Indonesia in Top
5. UK will fall out of the Top 10, Germany will probably follow 2030.

Tax in Hong Kong will remain low. Hong Kong will remain the most important financial centre in Asia and grow in pairs, challenging London, which will lose to Paris and Frankfurt because of Brexit. Tax in UK will rise because of spending on military and loss of trade due to Brexit. Hang Seng Index will be north of 30 000 by 2025.

The Greater Bay area will see integration on a massive scale. If the Bay area would be a country, it would be the fifth largest economy in the world. GDP of 80 million will amass to 3.5 trillion by 2030. Real estate in Hong Kong will remain to be the most expensive in the world and see new records. Any major international company doing business in China will have office staff in the CBD of HK. It will host thousands of ASEAN HQ's, including Asian top level staff.

Airport infrastructure will be built disproportionally in Asia. Hundreds of airports will be built, especially in SE Asia and China. Europe will not see a single new major airport. Carbon tax will tamper growth in the West further.

Cathay will struggle to built up capacity along with strong growth of demand. I am cautiously optimistic pay will go up, albeit not to previous levels and probably more so for captains. It will still be significantly more lucrative to work in Asia compared to Europe, especially after tax.

[Skepilot]

I can't post link now, but check out the article published a few days ago in Simple Flying titled, "Hong Kong Airport's Time As A Global Aviation Hub May Be Over."

[Oli777]

HK's days are long gone, the average Chinese city is more financially viable and powerful.. this is not the 1980's.
The USA economy is built on war since the day they were formed, their economy won't drop the number 1 spot anytime soon if ever.
Low cost travel will once again crush major expensive airlines (Cathay) with rising interest rates around the world people look for cheaper travel, and cheaper everything.
Wives will look for more expensive husbands, which there aren't many remaining so they might have to start marrying for love again, but don't hold your breath.

[Betsy]

Sir Tim Clark also had something to say.. and he's always right..

https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/04/capa-leader-summit-sir-tim-clark-says-cathay-pacifics-future-is-anybodys-guess/

[extralite]

Is this post implying HK is "business friendly" ? We recently closed and moved our company's HQ from HK back to Aus (it is only a medium business) partly because of how unfriendly HK is for business. Audits every year which are a time burden for all concerned. HSBC is murder to bank with. Driven by their overlords no doubt, they needed the company structures, financial information such as profit forecasts etc that should be confidential for unlisted companies, copies of passports of directors and accountants etc to regain access to the account. God forbid you lose the "token"...try organizing one of those. Tax benefit was marginal and outweighed by compliance costs. Lastly of course, visiting HK used to be an interesting trip. Now it is a visit to China.

I agree with the above, very unfortunately HK's time as an international business capital peaked probably 10 yrs ago.

[xdc9er]

STW must be smoking some good stuff, he is probaly right on some counts, HK tax remaining low ( as a result of slow reform) , higher inflation in EU/US as compared to Asia.I agree that it will still be more lucrative to work in Asia than Europe/US .
HK will not be the HK that we all once knew, fortunately I can reman in HK and will do so as there are some bright spots to be had for those can tough it out , sadly most of my Expat friends are moving to Singapore with a more open environment .

[Winemaker]

Wives will look for more expensive husbands, which there aren't many remaining so they might have to start marrying for love again, but don't hold your breath.
And this is a bad thing?

[prickly]

If anyone needed a hobby it is STW. Too much bad congee.

[The100thmeridian]

Fast forward western inflation by 2++ years and, if left unchecked (unlikely), then voila! You have present day Hong Kong prices. I fail to see any current or projected advantage. However you could drop your, dare I say 'Western Comforts' and adopt a more traditional lifestyle. That should keep your expenses in check then you can really gloat about how great and affordable your life is compared to those pesky Western Dynamics. May not have a choice when housing runs out... By 'Western Comforts', I also include gov represention.

[PPRuNeUser0163]

HKIA (again) busiest cargo airport in the world 2021.

Cathay will struggle to built up capacity along with strong growth of demand. I am cautiously optimistic pay will go up, albeit not to previous levels and probably more so for captains. It will still be significantly more lucrative to work in Asia compared to Europe, especially after tax.

Wish you well stw and all cx guys there who for the most part are great guys and deserve the best but unfortunately with articles like this the future is looking mediocre at best.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/china-won-t-let-hong-kong-cut-seven-day-quarantine-tien-says

[Dingleberry Handpump]

What a load of rubbish.

HK is done. The brain drain is in full flow. HK is now just another mainland city. Wild horses couldn’t drag me back. Singapore, Dubai are huge net beneficiaries of HK’s demise.

London will be fine. Taxes will be higher elsewhere, such is the price to live somewhere that isn’t dreadful. Greater Bay GDP means absolutely zero when it comes to your happiness.

A pay rise may come, because the exodus from CX is something never seen before in the industry. The GMA hasn’t seemed to grasp how big of an issue she’s created in the pipeline - if HK does ever return to normality.

STW will be the only expat to lay on his deathbed wishing he’d spent more time in HK. Let’s not forget that the overlords run an evil regime, and over the last couple of months have painted themselves as, at best, sympathisers of true enemy. Enjoy being part of that.

I’ll suffer through those higher taxes, thanks.