Sweden Says Russian Planes that violated Swedish Airspace had nuclear weapons

[Beamr]

Swedish TV4 reports that Russian planes that entered Swedish airspace on 2nd of March were carrying nukes onboard. This was stated by the Swedish AF.
Crazy people.

https://www.tv4.se/artikel/6cNV5sPAaxdIgAsnItdVsK/kaernvapenbestyckade-ryska-plan-kraenkte-svenskt-luftrum

[Tartiflette Fan]

Swedish TV4 reports that Russian planes that entered Swedish airspace on 2nd of March were carrying nukes onboard. This was stated by the Swedish AF.
Crazy people.


How do they claim to know this ?

[melmothtw]

From the reports, the Russian pilots made it clear. How they did this isn't explained, but the inference seems to be they tipped their wings to show what they were carrying. Images of the Su-24s show they had a store of some sort under the fuselage.

[WillFlyForCheese]

https://www.tv4.se/artikel/6cNV5sPAaxdIgAsnItdVsK/kaernvapenbestyckade-ryska-plan-kraenkte-svenskt-luftrum

Translated: https://www-tv4-se.translate.goog/artikel/6cNV5sPAaxdIgAsnItdVsK/kaernvapenbestyckade-ryska-plan-kraenkte-svenskt-luftrum?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

"Two of the Russian planes that violated Swedish airspace near Gotland on March 2 were equipped with nuclear weapons, TV4 Nyheterna experiences. According to information taken by the channel, the violation was a deliberate act with the aim of intimidating Sweden."

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/634x357/54896623_10571337_image_a_1_1646298336973_5d06fd0b80c93d9bb9 573015d516c23c0684b934.jpg

[beardy]

Swedish TV4 reports that Russian planes that entered Swedish airspace on 2nd of March were carrying nukes onboard. This was stated by the Swedish AF.
Crazy people

https://www.tv4.se/artikel/6cNV5sPAaxdIgAsnItdVsK/kaernvapenbestyckade-ryska-plan-kraenkte-svenskt-luftrum
Perhaps they were rotating stocks out of Kaliningrad, the escorts being there to ensure no departure from the route rather than defend the formation.

[Beamr]

How do they claim to know this ?
There is nowhere to hide anything on a SU24 or 27. They hang out pretty well.

Perhaps they were rotating stocks out of Kaliningrad, the escorts being there to ensure no departure from the route rather than defend the formation.
Then they were bloody poor navigators. Children of the magenta line with U/S kit. They were well within Swedish airspace where Finnish and Swedish AF's were having a joint drill.

[Tartiflette Fan]

There is nowhere to hide anything on a SU24 or 27. They hang out pretty well.


i have no idea how distinctive bombs are/can be . Is it so obvious ?

[Beamr]

i have no idea how distinctive bombs are/can be . Is it so obvious ?

."
I believe the fast jet jocks here can give authentic insight, but the pictures from ID sorties are very detailed.

[zambonidriver]

How can they be so certain about what was actually affixed to those pylons?
Short of some extremely sensitive instruments which seem beyond airborne use in a fighter it is at best an estimate.
Not to endorse any of the recent Russian activities but let's keep it factual.

[Timelord]

I would be very surprised if they were real nuclear weapons ( although I have been very surprised by Vlad a lot lately) . Could they have been what we used to call “shapes”, ie inert practice weapons?

Still pretty aggressive though!

[WillFlyForCheese]

How can they be so certain about what was actually affixed to those pylons?
Short of some extremely sensitive instruments which seem beyond airborne use in a fighter it is at best an estimate.
Not to endorse any of the recent Russian activities but let's keep it factual.

"Sweden - which is neutral and not a NATO member - deployed two JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets that are said to have taken images of the Russian aircraft which confirmed they were equipped with nuclear weapons."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-live-russia-war-putin-nuclear-biden-latest-updates-12541713

[BFSGrad]

How can they be so certain about what was actually affixed to those pylons?
Short of some extremely sensitive instruments which seem beyond airborne use in a fighter it is at best an estimate.
Not to endorse any of the recent Russian activities but let's keep it factual.
I am also skeptical that Sweden would be able to confirm that an Su-24 was carrying a nuclear weapon with optical imagery. Perhaps something was lost in translation. There is a difference between a nuclear-capable delivery vehicle (e.g., gravity bomb, cruise missile) and the associated nuclear warhead. I am not aware of any nuclear weapon where the presence of a nuclear warhead can be confirmed by external inspection. Even retired systems such as the Polaris SLBM or Russian SS-N-6 that had an external reentry vehicle (RV), you still couldn't tell by external inspection if the RV contained a nuclear warhead. The standard method to confirm the presence of a nuclear warhead in arms control regimes is by using radiation detection equipment. Doubt the Gripens got close enough to use that scheme.

[mickjoebill]

...The standard method to confirm the presence of a nuclear warhead in arms control regimes is by using radiation detection equipment. Doubt the Gripens got close enough to use that scheme.

The USA use a helicopter to check radiation levels around locations where mass gatherings are planned. Perhaps someone can speak to the detection range of portable detection equioment?

Mjb

[Beamr]

I am also skeptical that Sweden would be able to confirm that an Su-24 was carrying a nuclear weapon with optical imagery. .

Every nuclear warhead is clearly distuingishable from a traditional weapon just by the looks of it. And from a dummy trainer as well. And for a good reason, imagine loading a live nuke for target practices instead of a traditional explosives and the consequences. Or instead of a dummy.

take the WE.177 as an example

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/966x558/842369882ee0fc6a408e19a744e4fe5f_99b1a433fdc2622fb99e0b126c2 be94100cc45e6.jpg

edit: here's an actual night sortie picture of a russian violating finnish airspace. The swedish incident was in bright daylight...
I havo no doubts that the swedes know what they are talking about.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x676/13_3_9215705_jpeg_9d0c6c09e93a71b6bdc6a194c4ca74e1c57bd35e.j pg

[tartare]

Am trying to find online a Russian equivalent of Beamr's WE177 diagram.
They don't appear to be as willing to share as the West!
Presumably there are Russian versions of the coloured stripes - or Cyrillic writing of some kind...
Noting also that things have changed considerably and that B61 training rounds differ in entire colour from live rounds.
All OSINT - but won't post the detail here so as not to irritate people.

[just another jocky]

I don't think a paint scheme can confirm anything other than someone has painted something the colour they wanted to.

[Asturias56]

", imagine loading a live nuke for target practices instead of a traditional explosives and the consequences. Or instead of a dummy."

Given the Barnes Wallis theory "You can't make anything fool proof - the fools are so damn clever"

I'm sure it's been done several times over the years somewhere

[Asturias56]

V Interesting BEAMR but the main obvious difference on the WE177 illustration is the paint job - and that could be changed for all sorts of reasons

[ORAC]

Mistakes happen - and as the current war shows, the Russian armed forces are nowhere near as competent as previously supposed…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_States_Air_Force_nuclear_weapons_incident

[zambonidriver]

I don't think a paint scheme can confirm anything other than someone has painted something the colour they wanted to.
Indeed - especially in current circumstances.

Again they might have spotted what looked like nukes - as of what was actually affixed to the pylons is anyone's guess. But a good headline for sure...

[Beamr]

You folks are absolutely correct that it may have been a dummy of a perfect shape and size painted as a live tactical nuke. Still, I have no doubts that the swedes saw something that either is or was made to look exactly like a nuclear warhead.
That does not remove the fact that the Russians WANTED to make everyone else think that they are cruising happily in other nations airspace with a live nuke.

Whether the bugger was then live or not doesn't make much difference, message was delivered, and at this day and age one could make an uneducated guess that the message goes along the lines of "join NATO and you'll be receiving these".

To emphasize my point: undoubtedly the Swedes know what they saw, and they have to assume it is a live nuke.
To admit the possibility: it may have been a repainted dummy or it may have been a live one, that's something we'll never know for sure. The message was delivered and is the main thing anyway.

[OvertHawk]

I don't think a paint scheme can confirm anything other than someone has painted something the colour they wanted to.


Supposing that someone chose to paint an inert training device to look like a live weapon rather than it actually being a live weapon?

Either way - it's still a pretty big "F@£& You" to the Swedes.

[Less Hair]

It feels like Russia wants Sweden to join NATO for some reason.

[Video Mixdown]

Supposing that someone chose to paint an inert training device to look like a live weapon rather than it actually being a live weapon?

Either way - it's still a pretty big "F@£& You" to the Swedes.
It's just proving that Russia is like a malevolent toddler with a hand grenade.

[Timmy Tomkins]

And if they were real nukes and Sweden had adopted the Turkish method of shooting down Russian jets that enter its airspace, what then?

[HOVIS]

It feels like Russia wants Sweden to join NATO for some reason.
My thoughts exactly.

[Chu Chu]

Probably coincidence, but just after the news came out, the Prime Minister said she wouldn’t rule out joining NATO. (A somewhat big deal, because her party’s longstanding position has been to rule it out.)

[Flyhighfirst]

And if they were real nukes and Sweden had adopted the Turkish method of shooting down Russian jets that enter its airspace, what then?

There would be a few nuclear armed bombs lying on the seabed waiting to rust away? Or more likely quietly salvaged by the US to take a look at them.

[Flyhighfirst]

The USA use a helicopter to check radiation levels around locations where mass gatherings are planned. Perhaps someone can speak to the detection range of portable detection equioment?

Mjb

That is for “dirty” bombs or other radiological material. Nuclear weapons fissile material in encased inside the weapon and there would be no signature to detect. Otherwise those poor guys attaching the bombs would have a very short career, after the radiation exposure.

[superplum]

V Interesting BEAMR but the main obvious difference on the WE177 illustration is the paint job - and that could be changed for all sorts of reasons

Not really. For all NATO wpns of either variety (Conv or Non-Conv), all are required to conform to NATO colour standards - these would not be changed at local level.
:cool:

[Ninthace]

That is for “dirty” bombs or other radiological material. Nuclear weapons fissile material in encased inside the weapon and there would be no signature to detect. Otherwise those poor guys attaching the bombs would have a very short career, after the radiation exposure.
Indeed, the idea of running a Geiger counter over a bomb and getting a crackle on the speaker is more Hollywood than physics.

[ORAC]

It feels like Russia wants Sweden to join NATO for some reason.
Have to hurry to get in before Finland…

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509300030406078465?s=21&t=FSceWWhhNB8mX6tjqHkdCQ

[Less Hair]

Bad NATO wants expansion next door to peaceful mother Russia is the narrative.

[Timelord]

Not really. For all NATO wpns of either variety (Conv or Non-Conv), all are required to conform to NATO colour standards - these would not be changed at local level.
:cool:

As in the illustration, latterly both live and training WE177 were green. The only external difference was the yellow (HE) and orange (fissile) bands around the nose. I worried a lot the day I had to turn the key and drop a green (inert test) item.

Whatever though, as others have said, it’s still a pretty provocative thing to do.

[Asturias56]

Doing things like painting training rounds to look like nukes is a stupid thing to start

you just don't know what the reaction might be - they'd look a bit silly if the Swedes had some sort of dirty bomb they fired off in a panic at St Petersburg for example

[Moonwalker]

Google translate from a news article published today. Looks more like Russian propaganda.

"Several defense experts doubt the information that two Russian planes that violated Swedish airspace were equipped with nuclear weapons.
- My assessment of the pictures is that the plane looks completely unarmed, says Andreas Hörnedal, expert at FOI.
Several media reported on Wednesday that two of the four Russian planes that violated Swedish airspace in early March were armed with nuclear weapons. The information originally came from TV4 Nyheterna, which referred to "sources".

The information has already been toned down by the Armed Forces Air Force Commander.

- Had we seen an increased threat to Sweden linked to this incident or other events, we would have informed about it, said Air Force Chief Carl-Johan Edström to TT.

"Speak against"
Andreas Hörnedal is a research leader and expert on airborne weapons at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI).

- The news itself has a very unclear source. My assessment of the pictures that the Armed Forces posted, which in itself was quite low-resolution, was that the plane looked completely unarmed, and that applies to all the plan, he says.

Defense debater Johan Wiktorin also questions the information.

- How they flew and maneuvered speaks against a behavior that you should have with such a load, he says.

Impact surgery?
It was early alleged that the two attack planes had been equipped with Kh-32 nuclear missiles. But it is a robot that is very large, weighs about 5.5 tons and is carried on another aircraft (a strategic bomber of the type TU 22M3), according to Andreas Hörnedal.

During the Swedish Armed Forces' weekly press conference, Daniel Olsson, Deputy Head of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (Must), was asked about TV4 Nyheter's information.

Daniel Olsson said that MUST does not comment on other countries' armaments so that it could reveal Sweden's ability to investigate foreign planes.

- We do not go into armaments. But what I can say is that the violation in no way changes the threat against Sweden. We see no increased threat. In general, it is important to be aware that information on nuclear weapons can be used for psychological influence. It's a way to mark and intimidate when it comes to information about nuclear weapons. It is very important to be aware of that and be very critical of sources, said Daniel Olsson."

[Beamr]

This one has two options, either it is russian propaganda or swedish smoke and mirrors: One entity leaks info while officially no one comments on it.
However, when theres smoke there usually is fire, too. I doubt very much that those long distance photos are the only pictures, the Swedish AF surely has much better pictures that has not been released.

[GlobalNav]

You folks are absolutely correct that it may have been a dummy of a perfect shape and size painted as a live tactical nuke. Still, I have no doubts that the swedes saw something that either is or was made to look exactly like a nuclear warhead.
That does not remove the fact that the Russians WANTED to make everyone else think that they are cruising happily in other nations airspace with a live nuke.

Whether the bugger was then live or not doesn't make much difference, message was delivered, and at this day and age one could make an uneducated guess that the message goes along the lines of "join NATO and you'll be receiving these".

To emphasize my point: undoubtedly the Swedes know what they saw, and they have to assume it is a live nuke.
To admit the possibility: it may have been a repainted dummy or it may have been a live one, that's something we'll never know for sure. The message was delivered and is the main thing anyway.

Not a surprise, I suppose, but this surely highlights the difference between Putin's Russia and the west. The west is going out off its way to avoid giving such signals and its reaction to the Ukraine invasion is severely modulated to avoid any sign of such escalation, while Putin operates freely under that threat's umbrella. The west has to find a better way of dealing with this.

[BFSGrad]

That is for “dirty” bombs or other radiological material. Nuclear weapons fissile material in encased inside the weapon and there would be no signature to detect. Otherwise those poor guys attaching the bombs would have a very short career, after the radiation exposure.There is absolutely a radiation signature that is detectable from a nuclear warhead using radiation detection equipment (RDE). To underscore this fact, all of the U.S.-Russia treaties that involve nuclear weapons include neutron RDE among the authorized equipment carried by inspection teams. As another example, when the U.S. flight tests nuclear missiles such as the Minuteman or Trident, the dummy reentry vehicles are verified to have no detectable radiation signature to ensure (among other steps) that no real nuclear weapon is contained in the missile to be flight tested.

However, in the above scenarios the distances involved between the RDE detector and the potential radiation source are on the order of feet. In the Swedish incident, the distances likely would have been too great (and too brief) for any significant detection above background radiation levels.

Regarding the comment about radiation exposure from nuclear weapons, all of the workers involved in this type of work (at least in the U.S.) are trained radiation workers that carry personal dosimetry, allowing their exposure to be managed using the standard time, distance, and shielding principles.

I agree with the comments that Russia intended this to be a provocative incident but carrying an actual nuclear warhead was not necessary to carry out the provocation.

[Less Hair]

If I'd be Sweden I'd to exactly what they do. Leave it blurry to not come under any outside pressure whatever gets thrown at them. They alone will decide what they want whenever they want.

[SWBKCB]

During the Swedish Armed Forces' weekly press conference, Daniel Olsson, Deputy Head of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (Must), was asked about TV4 Nyheter's information.
Daniel Olsson said that MUST does not comment on other countries' armaments so that it could reveal Sweden's ability to investigate foreign planes.

- We do not go into armaments. But what I can say is that the violation in no way changes the threat against Sweden. We see no increased threat. In general, it is important to be aware that information on nuclear weapons can be used for psychological influence. It's a way to mark and intimidate when it comes to information about nuclear weapons. It is very important to be aware of that and be very critical of sources, said Daniel Olsson."


I'll go for cock-up over conspiracy - somebody has told somebody that the a/c were nuclear-capable and then chinese whispers end up with... :suspect:

[NutLoose]

If I'd be Sweden I'd to exactly what they do. Leave it blurry to not come under any outside pressure whatever gets thrown at them. They alone will decide what they want whenever they want.


The Swedish transport Union has just announced they will not handle any Russian ships.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1509573843966341120?cxt=HHwWgMCtvbfaivMpAAAA

[911slf]

I would like to think that nuclear weapons would not be mistaken for anything else - but what about this story? B-52 mistakenly flew with nuclear bombs - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) (https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-sep-06-na-bomber6-story.html)

[Fonsini]

Did the scientists remember to put the Doomsday Clock forward an hour ?

[Herod]

Did the scientists remember to put the Doomsday Clock forward an hour

I hope not. I believe that, even before Putin's little "exercise", it already sat at 100 seconds to midnight.

[downunderupover]

I hope not. I believe that, even before Putin's little "exercise", it already sat at 100 seconds to midnight.
With some countries in the northern hemisphere starting summer time soon, look out!

[mickjoebill]

That is for “dirty” bombs or other radiological material. Nuclear weapons fissile material in encased inside the weapon and there would be no signature to detect. Otherwise those poor guys attaching the bombs would have a very short career, after the radiation exposure.

This is the radiation detecting/measuring helicopter to which I refer. It seems to be able to chart background radiation.
The crux of the question is, how well sheilded is a warhead?
​​​​​
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/helicopter-measuring-radiation-los-angeles-super-bowl-preparations/

[ve3id]

", imagine loading a live nuke for target practices instead of a traditional explosives and the consequences. Or instead of a dummy."

Given the Barnes Wallis theory "You can't make anything fool proof - the fools are so damn clever"

I'm sure it's been done several times over the years somewhere

I once presented a prototype of a design to the Chairman, who asked me if it was foolproof.
"Don't know, I said, I can't find a standard fool to test with."

[CargoOne]

Is there any good reason why Swedish AF did not shot them down?

[DaveReidUK]

Is there any good reason why Swedish AF did not shot them down?

Gosh, that's a tricky one.

[Asturias56]

"Is there any good reason why Swedish AF did not shot them down?"

The Russians and the Swedes have been playing these games since the end of WW2 - - you don't shoot people down unless you want to start a war.

It's all (reasonably) well calibrated - no-one is going to start a war over a 2 plane incursion

[CargoOne]

"Is there any good reason why Swedish AF did not shot them down?"

The Russians and the Swedes have been playing these games since the end of WW2 - - you don't shoot people down unless you want to start a war.

It's all (reasonably) well calibrated - no-one is going to start a war over a 2 plane incursion

Why do they need to have an airforce then? Just make an aviation club - it is much cheaper for taxpayers. Intentional airspace violation with our without nuclear weapons shall be punished. Ask Turkish AF about the story with russian jetfighter.

[Asturias56]

You better be ready to fight an awful lot of wars.................

[Clop_Clop]

Supposing that someone chose to paint an inert training device to look like a live weapon rather than it actually being a live weapon?

Either way - it's still a pretty big "F@£& You" to the Swedes.

Yeah it is, but same time using this type of message may be counter productive if the idea behind it is to keep the Swedes unaligned. On the receiving end i guess its a way of trying to scare into submission but could also piss people off so they are more likely to join NATO...

[henra]

Is there any good reason why Swedish AF did not shot them down?
Best practice has been since decades for NATO and affiliated Air Forces to warn intruders and accompany them out of the violated air space. Only if they don't comply with this, escalation would happen, e.g. forcing to land and/or firing warning shots. Shooting down would be very last resort if they don't turn away and are not compliant at all.
Shoot first, ask then is more best practice in 'less civilised' parts of the world or where military exchanges are normal part of politics.

[DuncanDoenitz]

Yeah it is, but same time using this type of message may be counter productive if the idea behind it is to keep the Swedes unaligned. On the receiving end i guess its a way of trying to scare into submission but could also piss people off so they are more likely to join NATO...
Consequentially (or not) there is currently a RSwAF GIV patrolling Poland's Eastern border, presumably contributing to the NATO ISTAR effort.

[CargoOne]

Best practice has been since decades for NATO and affiliated Air Forces to warn intruders and accompany them out of the violated air space. Only if they don't comply with this, escalation would happen, e.g. forcing to land and/or firing warning shots. Shooting down would be very last resort if they don't turn away and are not compliant at all.
Shoot first, ask then is more best practice in 'less civilised' parts of the world or where military exchanges are normal part of politics.

exactly - what a waste of taxpayers money and a water on Vlad’s mill. Just keep going like that all until Gotland or Stockholm will see those bombs released.

[Tartiflette Fan]

exactly - what a waste of taxpayers money and a water on Vlad’s mill. Just keep going like that all until Gotland or Stockholm will see those bombs released.

Your preferred approach being to start a war asap would undoubtedly waste a lot more money. Does your user name refer to flying a cargo plane, or carrying boxes in an Amazon warehouse ?

[henra]

exactly - what a waste of taxpayers money and a water on Vlad’s mill. Just keep going like that all until Gotland or Stockholm will see those bombs released.
I don't think it is a problem. Sitting in a SU-24 with a few armed Gripens on your Neck you would know your chances were you to try and continue straight ahead.
That said it is not even clear what alleged kind of Nuclear wepaon we are talking about. A free-fall bomb? A Cruise missile? In any case once being accompanied there is almost no chance any more to achieve a successful delivery (apart maybe from the Kinshal - but that is another Story anyway). Cruise missile can be easily shot down if the fighter is directly behind the Bomber delivering it. Free- fall bombs would require you to overfly the target. You can be sure the Swedes won't sit there and wait until being over Stockholm.
So I don't see a real downside to sticking to this practice.

[CargoOne]

Free- fall bombs would require you to overfly the target. You can be sure the Swedes won't sit there and wait until being over Stockholm.
So I don't see a real downside to sticking to this practice.

well at least this time Swedish AF managed to scramble the fast jets, not like the last time when Russian bombers were simulating an attack on Stockholm and Sweden had to ask Ramsteinn to scramble QRA from Lithuania…

ps you are forgetting Su24s were not alone but covered by Su27s, so a pair of Grippens might have disappeared from the radar if russkies intention would have been different.

[henra]

ps you are forgetting Su24s were not alone but covered by Su27s, so a pair of Grippens might have disappeared from the radar if russkies intention would have been different.

You seem to consider those Swedes quite stupid, eh? Got an Axe to grind?

[Beamr]

ps you are forgetting Su24s were not alone but covered by Su27s, so a pair of Grippens might have disappeared from the radar if russkies intention would have been different.
The russkies stumbled themselves across SWE AF and FIN AF and NAVY joint exercises. Which means that there were a lot more than two Gripens hanging around. I would've placed my bets on the defenders as there were plenty, and they saw what the sukhois were carrying around.

[sandiego89]

Are we thinking what was observed an ALCM or freefall weapon (or "shape" thereof) on the SU-24's?

[Video Mixdown]

I imagine that diplomatic channels will have been used to tell Russia in no uncertain terms that it they pull a stunt like that again the intruders will be shot down.
​​

[Tartiflette Fan]

I imagine that diplomatic channels will have been used to tell Russia in no uncertain terms that it they pull a stunt like that again the intruders will be shot down.
​​0

I don't think so, it's far too definite , and also far too extreme. Generally diplomatic steps - and all significant manner-changes between nations - are taken in an agreed manner/speed so that you don't precipitate some major action that you don't want because you take your neighbour by surprise. I don't know how many steps there are on that particular scale, but supposed nuclear weapons may have raised it one.

[Clop_Clop]

0

I don't think so, it's far too definite , and also far too extreme. Generally diplomatic steps - and all significant manner-changes between nations - are taken in an agreed manner/speed so that you don't precipitate some major action that you don't want because you take your neighbour by surprise. I don't know how many steps there are on that particular scale, but supposed nuclear weapons may have raised it one.

Yeah, if it's bad they can ask the ambassador to come and have a chat. If it's more bad they can ask x number of embassy staff to leave the country, but then the other country usually does the same, so in the end the aggressor, at least from where i am sitting look like they are getting away with it...

[Video Mixdown]

0

I don't think so, it's far too definite , and also far too extreme. Generally diplomatic steps - and all significant manner-changes between nations - are taken in an agreed manner/speed so that you don't precipitate some major action that you don't want because you take your neighbour by surprise. I don't know how many steps there are on that particular scale, but supposed nuclear weapons may have raised it one.
You clearly think that you can trust what the Russians say. I do not - we are dealing with barbarians and a bit of definite black and white clarity is called for.

[Tartiflette Fan]

You clearly think that you can trust what the Russians say. I do not r.

For many decades the Russians have made a big thing about fulfilling explicitly all types of international accord - particularly financial - so this is completely different. My opinion is that Putin is off his head, but that is not likely to help anybody's view of the war.

I think we are dealing with a "then" and "now " scenario. NATO has not failed as far as its treaties go ( explain if you feel differently ) and now needs to re-supply some of its eastern defences.

[Tryingharder]

[QUOTE=Tartiflette Fan;11209189]0

Generally diplomatic steps - and all significant manner-changes between nations - are taken in an agreed manner/speed so that you don't precipitate some major action that you don't want because you take your neighbour by surprise.

You've not met Liz Truss then?

[reynoldsno1]

take the WE.177 as an example

The load exercises I did with a supposed 'inert' weapon looked like that white one at the top of your illustration ....

[punkalouver]

Is there any good reason why Swedish AF did not shot them down?
No need to shoot them down. Do the standard intercept, they go away and join NATO with Finland. He is just trying to scare the west. Stand up and stop cowering.

[WillFlyForCheese]

Well - we might never know - but some stand by their assessment that the SU-24s were carrying. One wonders whether people are saying "no" to avoid a more harsh reality.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ttpj6v/update_tv4_news_doubles_down_on_info_that_russian/

[k3k3]

take the WE.177 as an example

The load exercises I did with a supposed 'inert' weapon looked like that white one at the top of your illustration ....
As did the the things on the Jaguars on QRA at Brüggen in 77/78.

[Beamr]

reynoldsno1 and k3k3, very interesting, as timelord wrote above that the inerts he had on board were without the yellow and orange stripes. Did you really handle inerts with the stripes? I know this is a bit of a thread drift but very interesting nevertheless as I would've thought the worrysome event of a mistake if all of them look a like. How did anyone then make the difference in between the real deal and a dummy?

[Derfred]

Military diplomacy - never make a threat you aren’t prepared to carry out?

Even Putin hasn’t made that mistake yet, as far as I can see.

[Timelord]

reynoldsno1 and k3k3, very interesting, as timelord wrote above that the inerts he had on board were without the yellow and orange stripes. Did you really handle inerts with the stripes? I know this is a bit of a thread drift but very interesting nevertheless as I would've thought the worrysome event of a mistake if all of them look a like. How did anyone then make the difference in between the real deal and a dummy?

The QRA Jaguars will have had real weapons loaded. I heard that real ones were sometimes used for load training,
( although I never saw it) but NOT flown

[Beamr]

The QRA Jaguars will have had real weapons loaded. I heard that real ones were sometimes used for load training,
( although I never saw it) but NOT flown
thank you, that explains the situation. I appreciate your contribution.

[henra]

Well - we might never know - but some stand by their assessment that the SU-24s were carrying. One wonders whether people are saying "no" to avoid a more harsh reality.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ttpj6v/update_tv4_news_doubles_down_on_info_that_russian/
Honestly, ignore the tabloids, just stand calm, firm and clear. Don't let them intimidate you and at the same don't do stupid, irrational things.
When 'unfriendly' aircraft are entering your airspace, intercept them and accompany them out of the air space. They don't comply? Give a warning shot. They still don't comply? Shoot them down.
Best practice in NATO since 70 Years+.

[AAKEE]

Why do they need to have an airforce then? Just make an aviation club - it is much cheaper for taxpayers. Intentional airspace violation with our without nuclear weapons shall be punished. Ask Turkish AF about the story with russian jetfighter.

So, You’re not a Diplomat….any more? :)

India sent a ballistic missile into Pakistan by misstake recently. Good to see the diplomaticy solv it instead of weapons.

[CargoOne]

So, You’re not a Diplomat….any more? :)

India sent a ballistic missile into Pakistan by misstake recently. Good to see the diplomaticy solv it instead of weapons.

Most of a times it is easy to distinguish mistake vs intentional. NATO and its citizens shall wake up and understand what was good for the last 70 years doesn’t work anymore. Simply because the Soviet government was bad but usually shown a responsible behaviour when it was coming to the question of nuclear weapons. That is not the case any longer, we are facing a crazy dictator who is turning his country into a big and (somwhat)capable North Korea. We shall stop sending diplo notes every week let alone giving him a phone calls. Just shoot the bastards down when they come.

[Brewster Buffalo]

Maybe as a reaction to this the Swedish ELINT Gulfstream has moved its orbits from over the Baltic Sea, off the coast of Latvia, to along Poland's Eastern border.

[henra]

Most of a times it is easy to distinguish mistake vs intentional. NATO and its citizens shall wake up and understand what was good for the last 70 years doesn’t work anymore.
Why doesn't it work anymore?! What has happened as a consequence which has a hegative impact?
I repeat: Don't panic (even if you are as scared as you appear to be), stay calm, stay firm, don't get intimidated. Clear and measured response.

BTW: If Putin actually intended to use a nuke he would send an Iskander. As long as he's sending planes, he just wants to play.

[Asturias56]

I think we can trust the Swedes to know what and what is not an appropriate reaction - they've been in this trench since 1920..................

[superplum]

thank you, that explains the situation. I appreciate your contribution.

Prior to the 1980's, many, if not most drill (training) weapons would have been white. The "items" were all repainted around that time to the less conspicuous green or blue around that time. I have never known of an operational round being used for load training but they were sometimes loaded during exercises. That was also stopped around that time. Drill weapons never had the yellow and orange bands applied - everything was too well controlled at all levels Whether the loading of a live or drill weapon had any effect on load team performance or standards, No, they were always treated with the same respect by all involved - I speak from the RAF point of view.

[Beamr]

Superplum, many thanks, very interesting. Especially after reading the lengthy Vulcan thread a while back.