Japan & Preemptive Self-Defence

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-insists-it-has-a-right-to-a-military-first-strike-qt5rnzrvh

Japan insists it has a right to a military first strike

Japan has said that a pre-emptive strike by its fighter aircraft could be justified as self-defence, marking a change that will alarm its neighbours and undermine its postwar “peace constitution”.

Nobuo Kishi, the defence minister, said that although Japan would never maintain weapons, such as strategic bombers or intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could “annihilate” a military foe, a jet attack against a potential threat (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-increases-military-budget-over-territorial-threats-mkf2qsxw3) would be considered.

“We will not possess military capabilities that by themselves would annihilate an opponent,” Kishi told the Diet. “[But attacks by planes] would fall within the scope of self-defence.”

Hirokazu Matsuno, the chief cabinet secretary, said Kishi’s intent was that no option would be ruled out if it were within the constitution and international law.

The growth of the Chinese armed forces and North Korea’s programme of nuclear and missile tests (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/radiation-fears-after-earthquakes-at-north-korean-nuclear-test-site-cdwl2wqq2) have led to debate in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party about a pre-emptive attack on missile launch sites.

While the United States worries about whether North Korea has long range ICBMs that could reach its shores, Japanese know that they are within range of its weapons. Pyongyang held nine short and medium-range missile tests last month alone.

Japan already has a two-part anti-missile system, involving naval destroyers and land-based batteries designed to intercept incoming missiles. Consensus is growing in the ruling party that the country needs the ability to destroy North Korean missiles on the ground.

Article 9 of the postwar constitution states that “Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation” and promises that “land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained”.

[Richard Dangle]

Japanese military capabilities was my Masters thesis in the mid 90s, so I'm going to call out that "nothing new here" (which is par for the course with Japanese politics).

The Japanese "Self Defence Forces" have for a long time had a ton of capabilities which have clear offensive capabilities and an (usually unspoken) philosophy that attack is a valid form of defence. From a Japanese perspective it will only really get interesting if Japanese politics takes a radical shift. Don't hold your breath, that has not happened since 1955.

More immediately, and more importantly, will be the reaction of regional foreign powers to the capabilities they see themselves facing and the way in which they are deployed, rather than the words of politicians.

[Old-Duffer]

Get your retaliation in first!!!

Old Duffer

[fitliker]

Get your retaliation in first!!!

Old Duffer

says my brother from another mother :)

[unmanned_droid]

Seems inevitable with how the region is going. I can't see how, even with their military history, it wouldn't be acceptable to change defence policy as the world around them changes, so that their overall goal of self defence and self determination can be achieved (excluding getting your revenge in first!).

[ancientaviator62]

I always thought that the Confederate general Nathan B.Forrest had it right when he said his secret of success was 'get there fastest with the mostest'.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-time-japan-considered-nuclear-weapons-says-shinzo-abe-mqztd0tfx

It’s time Japan considered nuclear weapons, says Shinzo Abe

One of Japan’s most influential politicians has called for debate about what was until recently taboo: that the only country to have suffered the ravages of atomic war should host nuclear weapons.

Shinzo Abe, 67, the former prime minister, said that Japan should consider “nuclear sharing” (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-insists-it-has-a-right-to-a-military-first-strike-qt5rnzrvh) of the kind by which Nato countries such as Germany, Italy and Turkey keep American nuclear weapons on their territory. He also said that the US should abandon its policy of “strategic ambiguity” and commit to defending Taiwan against invasion should China ever follow up on its belligerent rhetoric.…

“Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has its three non-nuclear principles, but it should not treat as a taboo discussions on the reality of how the world is kept safe,” Abe said on Japanese television yesterday. “It’s important to move toward that goal [denuclearisation], but when it comes to how to protect the lives of Japanese citizens and the nation, I think we should conduct discussions by taking various options fully into consideration.”

Fumio Kishida, 64, the current prime minister, responded to Abe’s remarks by telling parliament that nuclear sharing would be “unacceptable” given the “three non-nuclear principles” that have been at the core of Japanese security policy for half a decade: not producing nor possessing nuclear weapons, nor allowing them on Japanese soil.

But the fact that Abe — the longest-serving prime minister, with almost eight years in the role, and now the most powerful faction leader in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — has come out in favour of nuclear defence is a measure of the shift that is under way.……

[Lonewolf_50]

If NK has nukes, Japan ought to have them as well.
If Pakistan has nukes, Japan ought to have them as well.
If Israel had nukes, Japan ought to have them as well.

Personal Bias: I trust the Japanese more than I trust the other three.

[Asturias56]

After the latest goings on how can anyone tell people like the Iranians that they'd be safer without nukes.......................

[jolihokistix]

Re "...for more than half a decade." Not really wishing to nitpick, but I think The Times means "half a century."

[jolihokistix]

https://www.arabnews.jp/en/japan/article_67635/

Russia saw fit to send 10 naval vessels through the Tsugaru Strait between Honshu and Hokkaido late last night and early this morning. East to west from the Pacific Ocean through to the Japan Sea.

(Possibly registering their annoyance at Japanese mutterings over the war in Ukraine, and new questioning about when Russia will renew some of those northern islands they took after the cessation of hostilities in WWII?)

Quote: TOKYO: Ten Russian navy ships have passed through the Tsugaru Strait between Japan’s Honshu main island and the country’s northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido, the Japanese Defense Ministry said Friday.

In February, the navy conducted a large-scale maritime exercise in Russia’s Far East region in step with Russian forces stationed around Ukraine. The 10 warships are believed to have participated in that exercise.

[Asturias56]

well we can't make a big fuss over "freedom of navigation" in the Black Sea and the Taiwan Straits and then point a finger at the Russians

[jolihokistix]

Actually no-one has made a big fuss over this. Just quietly noted. (Not like some I can think of…)

[meleagertoo]

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/150630-japan_nuclear_war/

What Pravda has to say on this.

Hilarious but chilling.

Pravda is carrying out a campaingn of softening up the Russia people into thinking that the West is hell-bent on nuclear war and that it's coming soon. There are numerous articles on the West's various 'intentions' in every edition.

It isn't a good sign.

[jolihokistix]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/kohyoungki/20220311-00285942
In Japanese, but discusses how Kim in North Korea has taken heart from the latest Russian moves which he thinks will succeed. He has assured his workers party that North Korea will also be able to do the same with South Korea where the populace is also eagerly awaiting their arrival. Although nothing about the war in Ukraine is allowed any mention in the national press, a Russian media version has been fed in special educational sessions to those workers sent abroad to work inside Russia.

(I have posted this partly in light of the alleged upcoming big ICBM test launch scheduled for Kim Il-song’s birthday on 15 April)
https://japantoday.com/category/world/north-korea-plans-'monster'-missile-launch-by-april-analysts

Quote: And Pyongyang has a clear deadline: North Korea will mark the 110th anniversary of the birth of founding leader and Kim's grandfather Kim Il Sung in April and likes to mark key domestic anniversaries with military parades or launches.

"It's very likely that North Korea is going to test-fire an ICBM on April 15 for Kim Il Sung's birthday," Ahn said.

By unmasking the purported satellite tests as an ICBM, Washington and Seoul are sending a clear warning to Pyongyang not to go ahead, said Hong Min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.