Sight-seeing C172 missing in Iceland

[Maoraigh1]

https://www.icelandreview.com/society/missing-tourists-are-from-the-us-belgium-and-the-netherlands/
​​​​​​Missing since mid-day yesterday. Experienced pilot and 3 tourists.

[Gargleblaster]

Fuel or oil pollution has been spotted in southern Þingvallavatn lake. Sub-marine drones being deployed.

[FUMR]

There's also been an accident in Peru involving sightseeing tourists taking a look at the Nazca Lines. Three Dutch nationals among the victims.

[Pilot DAR]

Sadly found...

https://apnews.com/article/europe-netherlands-belgium-iceland-reykjavik-d15756ea815dcf7a1dc1ec73bd829496

[Alanwsg]

US skateboarder among four men killed in Iceland plane crash ...

https://news.sky.com/story/josh-neuman-us-skateboarder-among-four-men-killed-in-iceland-plane-crash-12535838

[punkalouver]

US skateboarder among four men killed in Iceland plane crash ...

https://news.sky.com/story/josh-neuman-us-skateboarder-among-four-men-killed-in-iceland-plane-crash-12535838

It seems odd to be crashing on a lake. We’re they within gliding distance of shore.

I see that a 22 year old skateboarder, YouTuber with a large following, and filmmaker was on board to create commercial content along with the rep for the company for which the video was being made, and a skydiving social media influencer. Interesting.

If I were an investigator, among other things, I would be very interested to see if any video was being taken of the flight and what sort of aircraft maneuvering, if any, was being done for the commercial content.

Also if there was glassy water at the time of the accident.

[Maoraigh1]

The four bodies are outside the aircraft. Possibly a controlled ditching near the shore, with everyone able to get out, but not survive in the cold water. Aircraft drifts away from shore before sinking.
For all bodies to be out without their action would require aircraft to be disintegrated.
The skateboard and parachuting activities of the passengers are likely irrelevant.
Perhaps looking for suitable sites for a video?

[Jhieminga]

Water temperatures in Iceland at this time of the year are low.... I would suggest a survival suit, life vest and dinghy would be the minimum to stand a chance. Anyway, the investigation will most likely cover this issue.

The pilot was a pioneer of photography tours (https://news.sky.com/story/iceland-four-dead-after-sightseeing-plane-crashes-into-lake-thingvallavatn-12533554) so the suggestion that they were looking for video sites may well fit.

[punkalouver]

The skateboard and parachuting activities of the passengers are likely irrelevant.

Thought I might look into things a little further. Perhaps the investigators will be curious to see if the charterer/person making requests was the type that might by very cautious or likely to enjoy taking risks or have the potential to ask a pilot for risky actions to get that perfect video shot.

Josh Neuman || Bails Vol. 3 - YouTube

All standard information gathering techniques that are gathered together and considered.

Lots of adventure:
You Should See That I Egypt Travel Video by Nicola Bellavia - YouTube

Looks like a nice lake:
Þingvallavatn | Lake Thingvallavatn iceland | Magnus Johannsson | Flickr

[rnzoli]

Looks like a nice lake:
Þingvallavatn | Lake Thingvallavatn iceland | Magnus Johannsson | Flickr (https://www.flickr.com/photos/34944560@N06/23609493818)
Probably irrelevant, but this pic also reminds me how difficult it is to judge height above still water, with no winds, no ripples, no waves.

[Maoraigh1]

"Probably irrelevant, but this pic also reminds me how difficult it is to judge height above still water, with no winds, no ripples, no waves."
Pics of rescue work show many small bits of ice on the water.
As to the passengers being risk takers, asking the pilot to do risky things is irrelevant, even if the passengers had the knowledge to evaluate aviation risk in that environment. The only thing that matters is the pilot's willingness to take risks. He ran a sight-seeing business, and would be familiar with crazy requests from tourists - and politely refusing them.

[punkalouver]

As to the passengers being risk takers, asking the pilot to do risky things is irrelevant, even if the passengers had the knowledge to evaluate aviation risk in that environment. The only thing that matters is the pilot's willingness to take risks. He ran a sight-seeing business, and would be familiar with crazy requests from tourists - and politely refusing them.

You are making an assumption and then a conclusion based on no evidence(a lot of people like to do this as it feels better to assume the pilot did the right thing - emotional reasoning).

Instead, you should think of the polite refusal by the pilot to do a high risk activity as one of several possibilities, as any competent investigator would do.

Of course, my potential scenario is only a theory, but the basic building blocks are there on the passenger side……and certainly a possibility that would be considered by any investigator worth his salt, if there is a lack of evidence proving otherwise.

[henra]

The four bodies are outside the aircraft. Possibly a controlled ditching near the shore, with everyone able to get out, but not survive in the cold water. Aircraft drifts away from shore before sinking.

Hmmm, since the pilot was experienced in that area he would have been aware that even a controlled a ditching in these water temperatures would almost not be survivable without a proper survival suit.
Glide ratio of a 172 isn't exactly great but most engine failures don't come totally out of the blue from one second to the next.

[Gargleblaster]

Unconfirmed earlier news mentioned video footage from surveilance cameras on one or more summer houses on the shores of the lake, seemingly showing the aircraft making an approach towards the lake. It didn't mention whether this was the actual ditching, or an attempt of a touch and go on the thin ice covering the surface.

Latest news is that three of four bodies rescued. Boats had to be used to break and clear the rapidly forming ice on the lake (temps -10 or less). Original plan was to use divers, but had to be abandoned due to the conditions. A submarine with a robot arm was used to retrieve the deceased. There is a possibility the aircraft will be raised tomorrow.

[rnzoli]

Unconfirmed earlier news mentioned video footage from surveilance cameras.
Speaking of footage, some may be found with the victims or in the wreckage or on the lake floor. I mean, not only that it was a sightseeing flight, but also with extrovert influencers, recording amd sharing their own life.
I would be surprised if no one had captured their own accident in some way.
Finding the devices & recovering the memory cards are another matter though...

[Maoraigh1]

https://www.icelandreview.com/society/preparations-made-to-recover-plane-crash-wreckage/
Wreckage recovery intended today 22 April.