Qantas to buy into SIA!

[Sopwith Pup]

As reported in Melbourne's "Age" newspaper.

Cash-rich Qantas may buy ticket in Singapore
By Geoffrey Thomas
August 24 2002

With Qantas' war chest boosted by a successful $600 million capital raising on Thursday night after its $428 million net profit announcement on Wednesday, some industry specialists suggest an equity marriage with arch rival Singapore Airlines may soon be on both airline's radars.

It is one of the funnier things I've read this week, how things have changed if it became true! :rolleyes:

[Whiskery]

I've read some pretty incredible stuff from you Geoffrey, but this one takes the cake !

I would like to know the "industry specialists" who suggested an "equity marriage" between SQ and QF. The only people who could seriously believe that scenario possible would, IMHO be a couple of trainee aviation journos in the aero club bar after 2300hrs on a Friday night.:rolleyes:

[Buster Hyman]

Everyone knows that the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation is THE only source of "credible" information! Sorry Peter, he doesn't mean it!;)

[geoffrey thomas]

Whiskery and Pup:

I know it sounds quite far fetched BUT can assure you that it is very real and on the table in the long term.
If you thinlk it through it makes sound business sense. An equity tie up with your arch rival and former suitor saves a lot of grief for all concerned.
And the source is not Peter H.

But Whiskery, what other incredible stuff have I written that has not come to pass. Possible I leave myself open on this one BUT let me know....Best Geoffrey T.

[Whiskery]

Hi GT, just a couple to refresh your memory....

Qantas wants the government to ease the Qantas Sale Act to allow foreign ownership to exceed 49 per cent. Analysts says that will push the share price from Friday's close of $4.60, to $6.50.
Mon "Melbourne Age"

High-flyer has Qantas staying alive
By Geoff Thomas
July 1 2002


Qantas raised the money and their share price has fallen to $4.37 !

Kiwis to buy slice of Virgin Blue

By Geoffrey Thomas

The deal would be done after the New Zealand Government decided between rival rescue bids for the NZ airline from Singapore Airlines and Qantas.

News of the Virgin Blue plan coincided with NZ Prime Minister Ms Helen Clark ruling out any Government rescue for Air NZ.



Not only did Air NZ NOT buy into Virgin Blue but the New Zealand government (Headed by MS Helen Clark) did in fact rescue Air NZ!

Singapore Airlines will be operating on Australian domestic routes within nine months, according to one of Australia's leading analysts.

This last one was on Peter Harbison's account but you still reported it. I'll bet you a carton of Swan Lager stubbies this doesn't happen either.


Cheers Geoff.

[geoffrey thomas]

Whiskery:

I knew I woulkd leave my self open BUT let me also coment on the articles you mention. Also, part of our role is to report what is happening at the time, while we may not think that particular business venture or comment has any legs at all. Ie: Tesna.

The Qantas/Sale Act story stands as is. IF the Government lifted the foreign ownership restrictions from 49% to say 70% then the share price would have gone up, refelecting the fact that Qantas could be lisetd on a host of overseas indexes, which raises its profile etc etc. Qantas just raised a small amount of money and the foreign ownership is till caped at 49%.

Air NZ/Virgin: That story also stands. Air NZ/Ansett were trying to buy Virgin for $250m and the deal was being brokered by Dr Cheong. Virgin agreed to the deal in principle in April 01 BUT SQ didn't want to $250m so it dragged on through August by which time Virgin was making money and claerly Ansett was going down. So Sir Richard tore up the cheque! And Helen Clark did rule out helping Air NZ but faced with thre airline going the same way as Ansett was forced to help out.

SQ operating in OZ in Nine months; In this case Peter Harbison is a very high profile analyst and well thought of and thus when he says something like this, supported by SQ admitting they were having talks with Airports about slots and terminals then the story gathers steam. I actually agree with you, that it is highly unlikely, especially given QF's interest in SQ vice versa, which started this thread

Hope this clarifies these but I am sure you have some more for me......

Best GT

[Keg]

Peter Harbison is a very high profile analyst and well thought of ...

Geoffrey, who decides this. Exactly who has to think well of him for it to be so? Most of us within the aviation community reckon he is correct about half the time and the rest of it is seems it is just about getting his face on telly or his name in the papaer with an 'opinion' so it doesn't appear that he is held in all that high esteem by the majority of line drivers that frequent this forum (all of whom are fine upstanding citizens of course! ;) )

I predicted QF going for ANZ a truck load before he did but no one quotes that! ;)


Keg, a contributor on the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.....

:D ;) :p

[geoffrey thomas]

Hi Keg:

Good points all but Peter has a large roster of blue chip clients and a vast amount of experince in the industry. Like all of us he is sometimes wrong and I guess if he was right all the time he wouldn't be wasting his time commenting on this industry.
And if I was right a bit more often, neither would I.

I guess also that Peter is just, in many ways, puttinga slant on the actions of governments who really have no idea what they are doing when it comes to avaition.

Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and others have a lot to answer for, for the state of the industry today and Ansett's demise....I don' think I will get too many arguements about that.

Best GT

[Whiskery]

GT,

If Aunty had been born with balls, she would have been Uncle. RE:

IF the Government lifted the foreign ownership restrictions from 49% to say 70% then the share price would have gone up, refelecting the fact that Qantas could be lisetd on a host of overseas indexes, which raises its profile etc etc.

Please understand, I am no journo basher and most of your articles on aviation are generally well balanced and accurate. What gets up my nose is the way you guys quote "industry specialists" and "avaition analysts" but rarely name them or your sources.

The other point I was going to make but Keg beat me to it. Who decides if Peter Harbison is "a very high profile analyst and well thought of ..."

Peter Abeles and Rupert Murdoch were considered by the "industry experts" to be the best thing to happen to Ansett back in the '80s and the rest is now history.

[geoffrey thomas]

Whiskery:
Industry analysts are almost always senior management of airlines OR Aviation Financial analysts from people like Goldman Sachs, Smith Barney, Credit Suisse First Boston etc.
In the case of the airlines they quite often are not commenting on their airline but another.
There are, as you can image, a host of resaons why they can't go on record and we must then balance one comment with others and come up with what we believe to be a middle ground position.
Re Peter Harbison: Most in the industry from a management and financial perspective rank him very highly.
Also I never thought Sir Peter was an expert on airlines...trucking maybe??
Best GT

[Al E. Vator]

GT.......I ran a question past you on another topic but (think it disappeared from the radar screens eventually ) didn't get a response - I know you are a busy boy.

Specifically it was related to a possible involvement by the gentleman under discussion in 'Operation Sewn-Up' formulated to terminate Compass Mk 1. This 'successful' venture was instigated by a major airline using government departments and formulated by a private organisation to keep the operation at arms length.

What is your knowlege of this gentlemans' involvement in this operation? I am aware of the need to be discreet and happy to append everything with 'alleged' but think their are many here who would be most interested in an in-depth answer, should you know something about this.

Moerover of greater concern is your quote "Re Peter Harbison: Most in the industry from a management and financial perspective rank him very highly".

How is he funded? Airlines pay him directly do they not?
Therefore how can anybody take his comments as unbiased or impartial?

Specifically therefore, how can any journalist "rank him very highly"?

Are his comments based on the $$$$$$$ he gets from third parties? Automatically does this therefore place his comments on the bottom of the credibility pile?

How can this be anything other than crystal clear?

Looking forward to your response.

Cheers........Al

[barleyhi]

Ali V

Good post.
Quiet isn't it.....
Silence is deafening


BH:rolleyes:

[geoffrey thomas]

Very good post and I do remember it. Am on the run at the moment so can I post a reply over the weekend please?

But quickly, more than often PH will not make any comment to me on a variety of issues becuase it may conflict with clients. Also his roster of clients shows that many are in conflict but they do not seem to have a problem. Also PH was the Presidnet of the Australian Avaition Law Society, so conflict of issue problems would be and are very much a high priority.

Re the Compass situation...I will leave that to the weekend.

Best GT

[Al E. Vator]

And I might take the opportunity to throw a few names into the hat for consideration.

1) Sir Peter Abeles.
2) Bob Hawke.
3) Dick Smith - At the time head of CASA.
4) John Singleton.
5) Peter Harbison.

This story has yet to emerge fully (as it inevitably will) and will be very rewarding for the professional investigative journalist willing to forsake the comfortable laziness of corporation-sponsored journalism for the truth.

There are of course risks (eg: I understand there was a Chris Masters' 4 CORNERS report on corruption within senior Qantas management - never aired). However, most of the players involved in 'Operation Sewn-Up' are no longer involved in aviation and thus the impact on the career of the journalist would be minimal. He would still of course need the facts.

Those facts ARE out there.

[Captain Gidday]

Umm, before this topic takes a turn into a backwater could it just be pointed out that $600M is hardly a war chest to do anything. That would be $350M for a Business Class sleeper seat makeover [that GD clearly does not want, but is being forced into by decisions made by the 'friendly' people at BA] , $100M for knocking over the hangar next to Sydney Domestic and extending the terminal to fit in some A330s and $150M in spare change, which does not even buy half of one of the 747-400ERs on order, let alone anything else.
A bit premature to be talking about O/S opportunities, is it not? [Unless you are trying to put pressure on some Kiwis, I guess, by inferring that you could just walk].

[Al E. Vator]

'Options open' on expanding Aust operations: Singapore Airlines
ABC Online.
============================================

Singapore Airlines says it is keeping its options open on growing its Australian operations but is not confirming a report that it is interested in reviving Ansett.

A leading industry analyst says Singapore Airlines is likely to this month consider a proposal to enter the Australian domestic market.

Singapore Airlines is not confirming or denying the report from Channel Nine it is considering a proposal to revive Ansett.

Managing director of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, Peter Harbison, says the new airline would be Ansett in name only and use a fleet of 20 to 30 aircraft.

He says Singapore Airlines has made no secret of its long-term interest in the Australian market.

"We're getting to a stage where most of the homework has been done and the timing is seen probably to be pretty right," Mr Harbison said.

Sydney Airport has confirmed it held talks with Singapore Airlines several weeks ago about airport access.

Mr Harbison says Singapore Airlines has been interested in the Australian domestic market for the last 10 years.

He says the airline was interested in Ansett last year but the Fox-Lew bid intervened.

"But I don't think that interest has gone away at all during that period, and now we're getting to a stage where most of the homework has been done and the timing is seen to be probably pretty right, so if a Board decision is made this month I think we could quite probably see something operating within six months," he said.
===========================================
Straight to Peter Harbison for opinion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Geoffrey Thomas.........still looking forward to your take on the Compass Airlines operation and comments on the abovementioned names. Cheers.....Al

[Whiskery]

Singapore Airlines are very good at keeping their options open - in fact that's all they ever seem to do these days.

Just a couple of questions about these options:

Mr Harbison says Singapore Airlines has been interested in the Australian domestic market for the last 10 years.


If they have been interested for so long, why did they not enter the market before Impulse and Virgin Blue?

He says the airline was interested in Ansett last year but the Fox-Lew bid intervened.


Why didn't they pursue Ansett after the Fox /Lew bid failed?

now we're getting to a stage where most of the homework has been done and the timing is seen to be probably pretty right

Oh sure SQ, the timing is just perfect - QF have 80% of the market and a huge war chest and Virgin Blue are expanding with a loyal passenger support base.

Singapore Airlines - COME ON DOWN !!

[Al E. Vator]

Ansett revival possible September 04, 2002

SINGAPORE Airlines may be on the verge of an assault on Australia's domestic aviation market – possibly by relaunching the Ansett brand.

Two weeks before the anniversary of Ansett's collapse, the Nine Network last night reported that a proposal to revive the name would be put to Singapore's board on September 11.

Singapore Airlines has refused to confirm or deny the report, but said last night it was keeping options open.The airline stressed that Australia remained an important market."Our position remains the same," Singapore Airlines told the AFX-Asia wire service. "We are keeping our options open in the Australian market."

Speculation has been building for several months about a third carrier moving into the domestic market. Singapore Airlines consultants in Australia began secretly assembling a proposal for a full service domestic competitor to Qantas about six months ago, with the proposal completed about a week ago, according to the Nine report. The report said Singapore's Australian fleet would comprise 24 Airbus aircraft.

Sydney Airports Corporation Ltd spokesman Peter Gibbs confirmed that an evaluation team had come out to look at the former Ansett terminal."We believe their assessment was very serious and very measured," he told AAP.

"We have had ongoing discussions with them, but what they propose to do as far as setting up an airline is entirely up to the Singapore Airlines' board."Administrators have retained Ansett's heavy maintenance facility, several aircraft and a chief pilot with an air operators' certificate...................

But an industry analyst, who asked not to be named, said a third airline did not make commercial sense.

"There is a general sense out there that it is complete commercial madness for them to give it a go, but that has never stopped people in the past," he said.

The Australian
==========================================

More crap journalism there.........
industry analyst, who asked not to be named, said a third airline did not make commercial sense. .

Who is that analyst? Geoff Dixon. Brett Godfrey?
Did the 'analyst receive payment from QF for his 'opinion'.
Who says there's a general sense out there of commercial madness? I personally think there is a yawning gap for a business-class carrier to offset the QF monopoly of that market. So clearly do many others....generally.
Grrrrrrrr:mad:

[longjohn]

Personally I think this is all very cruel. All I can say is that if Singapore are not serious then they should come out and categorically say so rather then allowing thousands of still unemployed ex - Ansett employees to gather false hope.

If they do start then I wonder how far Singapore will manage to undercut DJ on wages, and not just pilots?

There are still (very sadly) many highly experienced Ex Ansett tech crew out there who would take just about any offer. At the end of the day whatever they offer will be more than manual labour offers.

So will we see all the DJ crew calling them scabs and attacking them for accepting such low offers?

I wonder.

[Boeing Belly]

I've never heard any ex- Ansett pilot refer to any of the Virgin pilots as scabs.