Germany and the No-Nukes Option

[ORAC]

Will the German nuclear commitment, and F-18 purchase, survive.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-nuclear-option-no-nukes/

Germany’s nuclear option: No nukes

BERLIN — Can Germany be trusted to drop the big one?

So far that question has been a footnote in ongoing coalition talks (https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-coalition-talks-election-2021-biggest-sticking-points/) between the three winners of the country’s September election. Yet for both the rest of Europe and the transatlantic alliance, it couldn’t be more explosive.

At issue is whether Berlin will continue to honor a decades-old commitment to drop atomic bombs on Russia in the event of an attack on the West.

That might sound like an issue better put to 1981 than 2021, but with Germany’s Russia-friendly (https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-russia-tougher-stance-allies-frustrated-by-berlin-indecisive-position-on-moscow/) Social Democrats poised to lead the next government, it once again looms over Europe and NATO.……

[Less Hair]

How credible is this nuclear deterrence dropping US gravity bombs deep in enemy territory from non stealthy Tornadoes or F-18s at all? I am all for not changing a running system and keeping MAD but if this is intended to remain some doomsday option it maybe must be upgraded somehow? Say for nuclear cruise missiles or whatever the Russians have based at Kaliningrad recently? Otherwise it will be pure cold war folklore.

[Buster15]

How credible is this nuclear deterrence dropping US gravity bombs deep in enemy territory from non stealthy Tornadoes or F-18s at all? I am all for not changing a running system and keeping MAD but if this is intended to remain some doomsday option it maybe must be upgraded somehow? Say for nuclear cruise missiles or whatever the Russians have based at Kaliningrad recently? Otherwise it will be pure cold war folklore.

Very interesting article and interesting input.
I was of the opinion that the GAF was spending a significant amount of money producing new parts for their Tornado bombers to increase their life from 6,000 to 8,000 hours structural life. And that seemed to indicate their commitment. As well as procurement of nuclear capable F18.

Of course Tornado is not stealthy. But what nuclear bombers actually are? As you say, it is about the threat of MAD.
But all that does is to maintain capabilities.
As to whether they would actually deploy such a nuclear force is a whole different question. I guess that will all depend on the scenario at the time.

[Less Hair]

The F-35 would be both more stealthy and nuke capable or drones could be made to deliver special weapons unseen. It is next to impossible to get new and future european made delivery platforms US nuke qualified as all their systems details and inner workings would need to be disclosed to the US in the process. This is why even the Eurofighter was not offered for certification.

[RAFEngO74to09]

The flight testing phase of the B61-12 nuclear certification for the F-35A was recently completed at Nellis AFB:

F-35A completes milestone 5th Gen fighter test with refurbished B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs > Nellis Air Force Base > News (af.mil) (https://www.nellis.af.mil/News/Article/2798684/f-35a-completes-milestone-5th-gen-fighter-test-with-refurbished-b61-12-nuclear/)

Full scale production of the B61-12 is about to start:

(8) Hans Kristensen on Twitter: "US nearing completion of first B61-12 nuclear bomb. Once proof-of-concept unit is done, mass production will begin & run through 2025. https://t.co/ZiizrPbu1i About 480 B61-12s planned, mostly for B-2/21 bombers. Rest for US/NATO fighters. Deployment in Europe probably 2023-24. https://t.co/BoNmlDRnBT" / Twitter

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/11/24/incoming-german-government-commits-to-nato-nuclear-deterrent/

Incoming German government commits to NATO nuclear deterrent

WASHINGTON – Germany’s incoming government has affirmed its commitment to NATO’s nuclear deterrent, including the role accorded to Berlin in the strategy, according to a coalition agreement unveiled Nov. 24 by Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP).….

“The good news is that we are at least staying the course,” said Christian Mölling, a senior analyst at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations, referring to earlier fears by allies that Germany could axe key tenets of its foreign policy doctrine after 16 years of Chancellor Angela Merkel. That was especially the case following anti-nuclear positions in parts of the Greens and the SPD that had allies fearing a shifting stance in Berlin toward atomic deterrence.

Mölling said the compromise of the coalition agreement goes something like this: It includes a commitment to NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement, by which German pilots would deliver nuclear bombs stored on German soil in a hypothetical war, while declaring the objective of Berlin becoming an “observer” to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

The two poles encapsulate a conundrum the Greens, in particular, have had to square for themselves, with party defense spokesman Tobias Lindner previously advocating that a position combining both aspects is possible.

Whatever comes of Germany’s aspirations toward a global nuclear weapons-prohibition regime remains to be seen, however. Mölling describes the relevant passage as “scaleable,” meaning it relies to various degrees on decisions made by allies and conditions outside of Berlin’s control.

Mention of Berlin’s NATO nuclear-sharing commitment (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/05/11/nato-chief-backs-german-vow-to-keep-war-ready-us-nukes/), on the other hand, is a more binding objective, Mölling said, noting the agreement makes the replacement of the country’s aging Tornado aircraft with an equally nuclear-capable type an explicit goal for the new government……

[rattman]

Boeing said a few days ago that they expect an order of a F-18 and growlers from germany Jan next year. Looks like it could be a good Jan for boeing with F-18 and E-7 orders incoming


https://www.janes.com/defence-news/air-platforms/latest/berlin-security-conference-2021-germany-likely-to-issue-letter-of-request-for-super-hornet-growler-in-january

Also (https://www.janes.com/defence-news/air-platforms/latest/berlin-security-conference-2021-germany-likely-to-issue-letter-of-request-for-super-hornet-growler-in-january) on slightly unrelated note and RFI has been sent by germany for Apache's. Guessing tiger could be gone from german service as well

[Less Hair]

They need a nuke certified platform fast and don't want it to interfere with FCAS later on in any way.

[henra]

They need a nuke certified platform fast and don't want it to interfere with FCAS later on in any way.
Plus France heavily insisted that Germany buying F-35 (which would obviously be a way more credible platform for Nuclear deterrence) in that role would be an absolute No- Go for collaboration on FCAS. Knowing that FCAS will definitely not be made B61- ready there was no better mid-term option anyway.

[Less Hair]

The new German government is committed to keep the US nukes.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/11/24/incoming-german-government-commits-to-nato-nuclear-deterrent/

[henra]

The new German government is committed to keep the US nukes.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/11/24/incoming-german-government-commits-to-nato-nuclear-deterrent/

Vlad's latest sabre- rattling surely helped...