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HoldenCaufield
18th Oct 2021, 10:55
For me and many others, as a result of the pay and conditions changes - including conditions in the city itself, HK is no longer a suitable, pleasant or safe place to work.

In discussing exit strategies with colleagues, I note that applications CX crews are being welcomed at some US and ME carriers.

Rumours of commuting options for some, anyone able to confirm?

Jnr380
18th Oct 2021, 12:20
US citizens are welcomed with open arms with US carriers, As for ME, EK and QR still working through furloughed pilots, EY has nothing on the Horizon, FZ had a rush of applicants that they’re probably good for a good couple of years.

Everyone is waiting out this pandemic for the hope to move on to greener pastures.

herewego75
18th Oct 2021, 13:53
Very good question.
Undoubtably CX will be losing more pilots as this fiasco unfolds before our own eyes. The utter ignorance of the HK government is astounding.
Cx has been digging its own grave. They have just gnawed away at everyones conditions throughout this pandemic. I am not a local HKer, if I was I would be very disappointed in this "HK company" as I am sure many are. Imagine my government giving a company 40B and they cut your earnings (future earnings by 40% PERMANENTLY)! But I guess some people are suckers for punishment.

Back to the question - I definitely think lots of pilots (expat and local) are looking for an exit strategy, and if they are not they really should be. Be it, if you are employed by HKE,AHK or CX! The shortage of pilots in the USA market at this moment is apparent, and we not even over the pandemic. Europe will be short soon as well because NEWS FLASH, the world is moving on!

ME carriers will be hiring from mid next year. Thats from the mouths of instructors in QR. Lots of airlines are waiting to see if the winter wave is anything to be concerned about, if due to the vaccines the death rates drop over the winter they will be planning a very profitable summer season. All airlines except HK and China that is!

Honestly before Covid many pilots in CX were talking about big money jobs in China for a few years and then retiring. I really think that China will have to pay people even bigger salaries now to get western pilots there. The way they have treated their western pilots at the start/throughout this pandemic is ....(you can decide for yourself). The way the are blindly trying to handle this pandemic is the biggest joke of the century! China will have a massive shortage of pilots in the near future. You can always go there... I know I won't for obviously reasons.

All of this is of course in my own opinion.
Good luck on your decision. Don't get caught with the handcuffs on in HK because trust me they are not golden anymore. Go where you wanted and where you enjoy living. I will be doing this for sure.

Oasis
18th Oct 2021, 14:42
Lack of flexibility is a big one for me.
You can't visit family overseas at all due to the quarantine and on top of that the roster only comes out on the 27th or thereabouts, no reduced roster option (god knows why, would save them a heap of cash and give them flexibility), very late notice of unpaid leave so you can't plan on it, and its only given out one month at a time apparently.

'They' don't seem to care, beyond the empty words.

gipilot
18th Oct 2021, 15:42
I think most of you are still 2-3 years behind on Cx management. These people know exactly what they’re doing. Just have a chat with anyone on a base that’s been laid off, the effort,precision,timing and money that has been put in getting rid of these pilots has to be one for the record books. The company’s future is now more secured than ever. They know where they want to go and it just doesn’t involve westerners, period. The final move starts next year when the benefits end and people start leaving, I’m sure they can’t wait. I understand it’s hard to hear but that is a fact.

As for pilot shortage, THERE HAS NEVER BEEN AND THERE WILL NEVER BE a world pilot shortage. The ones that believe in such fallacy might as well believe in unicorns. Cx can easily get local pilots and/or in the future mainland pilots, why the hell would they need anyone from the west ever again?

I do understand everyone’s sentiment and regret and sense of despair etc etc but guys it’s not your local airline, nor your culture. These people accelerated what they were gonna do 10 years from now. Again, you are not part of their plans.

Jnr380
18th Oct 2021, 16:31
a lot of great theories there, unfortunately none are true, did you know it’s virtually impossible for Mainland Chinese pilots to leave their mainland employer? they signed a 99 year work contract and for another company to employ them, they’ll need to negotiate a payout figure with his/her existing company.

As long as Swire is in the game, there will be expats, and Swire is not going to give up grandpa’s toy planes without a fight.

We are behind management, yes I’ll agree with that but that is because they don’t share information, yes they have a strategy in place, but I doubt it revolves around the pilots. They don’t care if you’re white, yellow, orange or blue, if they can hire you for next to nothing while you suffer shiny jet syndrome they will!

gipilot
18th Oct 2021, 18:22
You see now that’s the problem. You think Swire fights? just yesterday the LON base was shut and the dissolvement of CxUk has started, there’s no fight here. Swire does not have that power anymore. It wasn’t SWIRE that threw 40B on the table it was a new hkg government and what they and Beijing say happens. If pilots of other nationality weren’t an issue, well then they would be handing over visas like it’s xmas.

Btw I never meant experienced mainlanders, I’m talking about cadets. And yes of course the strategy does not revolve around pilots only but they are part of that conversation, look at the efforts to dissolve bases while hiring locals it says a lot.

My point is more that as a Cx pilot you have to know the direction this place is going and it absolutely isn’t a expat route(e.g. Singapore Airlines).

Oddball77
19th Oct 2021, 04:14
I agree with GIpilot there is zero shortage of pilots and never will be, 50% of commercial pilots worldwide are currently unemployed. Plus Air China can easily send some very experienced pilots down to HK to plug any potential shortage, which is exactly what they have done at a former Portuguese colony close to HK.

ZootBoot
19th Oct 2021, 10:51
Prior to 2020 there were quite a few people who still lived blissfully ignorant, but even before that COS18 SOs were only here for rating, time and then a departure to something more sustainable. This is not just 'westerners' either; CX isn't appealing to those who are 'local' either. Aviation is no longer a safe choice of career in the city.

I don't know a single pilot who intends to stay here medium or long term including local HK pilots/cadets.

krismiler
20th Oct 2021, 00:27
Basically the main options are:
1. Legacy airline - Mostly for F/Os who can wait the 10-15 years to upgrade, unless it's EK or QR who take DECs and they won't be looking at any for a while.
2. Contract pilot - In say, Vietnam or China depending on how well the airlines judged the numbers laid off last year and the speed of the recovery.
3. Low cost airline - Possibly back home or reasonable commuting distance. 4 sector days and bring your lunch to work with you.
4. Cargo - Less likely, freighter work will diminish as pax flights with hold space pick up.
5. Anything else, such as simulator instructor, corporate jet or air ambulance etc. Those with experience in these areas prior to joining CX have more chance.

stevieboy330
20th Oct 2021, 03:43
They will never say "we don't want foreign pilots anymore" but yeah "we don't want foreign pilots anymore" if you are not working on your exit strategy already, that would be pretty naive.

AndyBrown350
20th Oct 2021, 22:30
another crying post... could you please name the airline and benefits that we all could happily move to?

btrdux
21st Oct 2021, 15:00
Maybe do some research, or rather, ask one of the ~400 resignations so far this year, many of which have found other flying jobs?

Nothing is handed to you on a platter.

VforVENDETTA
28th Oct 2021, 05:40
https://www.aero.uk/news-41125/Emirates-to-recruit-600-pilots-by-early-2022.html

Rie
28th Oct 2021, 12:09
Everyone seems to be reposting this everywhere. They still have not recalled the thousand plus pilots from the 380. This will make up the bulk of these numbers. I cannot see any major external recruitment by EK just yet. The 350 is delayed so any chance of crew here jumping across to that is slim.

Sam Ting Wong
28th Oct 2021, 12:40
EK is not really better anyway, why bother

SaulGoodman
28th Oct 2021, 13:08
A valid exit strategy would be moving to a civilized place where one can expect long term stability. Therefore I would be very cautious calling EK (or any airline in the ME) a valid “exit strategy”. Just my 2c

VforVENDETTA
29th Oct 2021, 19:04
For those who are facing upcoming visa rejections and decent jobs in their civilized world haven't opened up yet, the lesser of the :mad: options as a temporary measure makes perfect sense. Staying in cx and hk isn't a given choice for many (visa issue for one) and it's only getting worse. Hong Kong (china) is proving to be the silliest and craziest than any other. The ones who can put up with it all until it gets back to some normality are the ones with PR residency. The rest are pressured to take other options before they're suddenly rejected without a job. So yeah it makes sense for people in certain situations with much less invested in hk and cx to leave for a similar job which will last longer while civilized jobs become available.

SaulGoodman
29th Oct 2021, 19:09
Forgive me my ignorance but what is the trainingsbond with EK?

Rie
29th Oct 2021, 21:31
$40k USD 5 years I believe.

herewego75
30th Oct 2021, 02:40
VforVENDETTA

Who in HK have applied for a visa and have it denied? (exception for based pilots)... No one. Stop spreading fear into people that are about to go through this process. People are getting their visa's. Had a friend get his on the 777 last week!

I really feel sorry for the KA pilots but all their hate towards non PR pilots in HK cannot change this. Deal with it, accept it, be patient and move on. I hear EK is hiring soon :ok:

volare_737
30th Oct 2021, 02:44
At the moment !! HKE has been given a grace period which expires on the 17th December !!! We will see then !!! And Visas only getting renewed for 6 months unless you are in training which then gives you 3 years !!!

Sam Ting Wong
30th Oct 2021, 04:31
I have never met a pilot with an "exit strategy".

We either jump ship if we see something better, or we get pushed overboard.

To call that a strategy seems a bit inflated.

MENELAUS
30th Oct 2021, 08:21
Or we know when to retire. That I would call an exit strategy ?

Rie
30th Oct 2021, 10:34
volare_737

Everything points towards around 60-70 people coming up for a visa renewal in February. That should be when the visa renewal extensions end. That combined with the fact that no one on a 6 month visa at UO is being trained makes for a subpar outlook. I have also heard of people having contract renewals to the end of their visa.

carolknows
30th Oct 2021, 11:28
Does this apply to the Instagram star?

JMock
30th Oct 2021, 11:35
which one?
the blonde female or the handful of blokes?

Sam Ting Wong
30th Oct 2021, 11:38
Globocnik

A bit like being thrown out of a bar, dusting up in the street and then loudly declaring you did not like the service and you are now leaving for good .

Rie
30th Oct 2021, 12:58
I was talking about UO above but unfortunately the star would have gotten more than 6 months...

MENELAUS
30th Oct 2021, 18:03
Sorry. You’ve lost me there. I got outta Dodge of my own volition some time back. Admittedly I didn’t fancy signing up for enforced incarceration.
Although it would appear that some are quite happy to accept 56 day patterns for the slim chance of getting home for 17 days ( as I assume you’d have to leave early due to a lack of reliable flights ) followed by a further 21 days locked up. Then rinse and repeat. Madness. Just plain bloody madness.

Killaroo
30th Oct 2021, 21:08
:mad:. Seems to me that the guys who quit were the smart guys. The left behinds are the losers. Suck it up.

Grateful..
30th Oct 2021, 22:19
Rie

I’ve heard the same thing re contract renewals ending on visa dates. Times are changing.

Cathay is changing and so too are the pilots. The days of recruiting foreigners and issuing visas are long gone. Will be interesting to see the outlook in a years time..

OK4Wire
31st Oct 2021, 22:19
Sam Ting Wong

You're just not hanging around in the right circles, obviously! (not that you can know all 3400 pilots).

I know a few who very quietly worked their way "up the ladder" as it were, got a couple of years of training behind them and left CX (still in their 40s) for jobs in their home country. Half the pay, but for a multitude of reasons, it was worth it to them. You could (and might) argue that I cannot know their intentions, but it certainly looked like they had planned it all along.

herewego75
1st Nov 2021, 02:19
Hello...

Everyone that wants to leave or is in the process of leaving, why not be like me. Apply for the freighter, get your 747 aircraft rating and then go get a job in your home country.
A free rating
Current

and off you go! Simple as that.

I personally know MANY people doing this right now.

cxflog
1st Nov 2021, 03:04
you’d be silly not to! A current 747 rating is worth its weight in gold with how things are at the moment

Penske
1st Nov 2021, 04:21
As one of the YVR pilots kicked to the curb, I can tell you a 747 rating is not worth a sh!t without a US passport to go with it.

Sam Ting Wong
1st Nov 2021, 05:11
cxflog

I estimate my license weighs about 10 gramms, so yeah, sounds about right.

cxflog
1st Nov 2021, 06:26
Standby, I’ll go get my scales and we can compare

MENELAUS
1st Nov 2021, 07:19
herewego75

Jeez. Is that how you do it ? How naive the rest of us must have been. If only we’d known. The goony bird is pretty much a dead duck unless you’re an US passport holder. Or stay in CX and take your chances on it still being there in a year or so. Otherwise limited options in Europe, Oz etc. Gun running in the Dark Continent may be an option. Although you might end up as someone’s home boy in a jail in Kigali. And I’ve heard the medical benefits aren’t quite what they should be. The only useful rating if things do pick up is anything in the Blagnac plastique fantastique range.

Bueno Hombre
1st Nov 2021, 10:35
Exit strategy . Yes get HGV , Heavy goods vehicle truck driving license as soon as possible. That is where the money is now.. .

Busbuoy
1st Nov 2021, 10:58
"Some" money maybe, don't know about "the" money.

KABOY
1st Nov 2021, 11:17
Reading this thread is like watching the anchor chain being pulled up on a cargo ship, with refugees holding on to it…

Any semblance of dignity has evaporated with this airline and the pilots have now become a low cost skill.

Engineers are better qualified.

Sam Ting Wong
1st Nov 2021, 12:09
Yes, but consider the fascinating work, the family-friendly hours and the high social status that comes with it.

Jnr380
1st Nov 2021, 12:39
You remind me of my ex-students who got into flying as a status symbol instead of a chosen career and 99% of their personality is tied up in “being a pilot”

STW, please don’t lose your job, HK doesn’t need anymore suicides.

Sam Ting Wong
1st Nov 2021, 13:04
I certainly don't think that pilots have a particular high social status, but maybe you do?

PS Pretty tasteless reference regarding the terrible implications of suicide. But just to highlight another prejudice implied in your thought chain: against common belief Hong Kong actually has not a particular high suicide rate by international comparisons (lower than the U.S. for example)

Rie
1st Nov 2021, 13:59
Not back to this lorry crap again. I won't go home just to drive between Blackpool and Birmingham for 400k. The M6 is pathetic enough in a car let alone a lorry.

Jnr380
1st Nov 2021, 15:13
So you don’t think being a truck driver is high social status? Judging people by their profession? Very low for you STW.

you also stated you never met a pilot with an exit strategy? What’s your definition of an exit strategy? (Waiting for a turn in the industry and applying for other jobs is an exit strategy - a basic one - yes but still a strategy)

What would you do if CX folded tomorrow, do you have a backup plan? Well to execute a backup plan, a strategy needs to be in place.

I personally don’t care about HK suicide rate but the way you’ve been conducting yourself on these forums would indicate you’re a person with a social circle of one.

Killaroo
1st Nov 2021, 18:41
Sam Ting Wong

Well, during my stretch there I came to notice the sickening and miserable statistics around Child Suicide in Hong Kong. The details are all here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_suicides_in_Hong_Kong
Between 2015 and 2017 there were 70 child suicides, and many of them were 11 year olds. Jumping out windows seemed to be the commonest method. What inspires such children to kill themselves? I’d hazard a guess at the majority being related to unloving and demanding parents who reject academic failure.
So yeah, maybe you’re right and HK doesn’t have higher average suicide stats - but the age group is surely unique and abominable.
No place to raise NORMAL kids.

noboloco
2nd Nov 2021, 05:57
Jnr380

waiting for a turn in the industry? Guess you will be here until retirement because the industry has only gone one way and that is down. The so called looming pilot shortage never eventuates, by the time it does we will be down to single pilot ops anyway.

The fact so many pilots on the bases that closed attempted to return to Hong Kong to keep their jobs makes it pretty clear that there aren’t any better alternatives.

Also, a back up plan (for if Cathay folds) is very different than an exit strategy.

veryoldchinahand
2nd Nov 2021, 06:42
Just to bring a a little fact and context to the unpleasant subject of youth suicide.
Hong Kong rate does not feature in the top 70 countries worldwide but the USA, Australia and New Zealand are unfortunately high on this list with the rate in the US being approximately 6 times that of Hong Kong. According to the UK Guardian 7% of teenagers in the UK between 15 and 19 have attempted suicide - if correct a truly horrible statistic.
I have had several children at schools in HK for the past 25 years (and still) and have only ever been aware one suicide.

Jnr380
2nd Nov 2021, 10:29
noboloco

I don’t know what small world you live in, but the shortage was here and it will come again. You want to cherry pick details so it cements your confirmation bias.

Fact - China was so starved of pilots that they paid $300k USD for captains to fly around the region

Fact - Vietnam Airways increased pilot pay to attract more pilots as a lot were leaving

Fact - EK parked Jets as they didn’t have enough crew to operate them

Fact - American regionals got so desperate for pilots they started hiring Australians and pay also increased to retain talent

Fact - The Jetstar Group was crying for pilots

Fact - Qantaslink hired people from South Africa to drive their Q400

All the above is from 2016 onwards.

The fact you call the shortage a myth is laughable at best and reflects your simplistic views.

If you want to talk about pay, pay stayed stagnant and was actually tilting towards favouring the pilots but then Covid hit.

The industry will start up again, it’s all supply and demand for the job. Come visit this reply in 2024 and tell me I’m wrong!

Single pilot will not prevail for at least another 20 years. LH has a single pilot framework but they never implemented, the collaboration with Airbus is more of a data gathering exercise in exchange for most likely a discount on something. Good luck also convincing the CAD, they’ll never go for it, unless it’s been ticked off by one or more of the major regulators, they won’t approve it.

gipilot
2nd Nov 2021, 13:43
Nopes, to think those facts mean anything close to pilot shortage is a overly simplistic understanding of facts.

First of all the Chinese weren’t looking for f/o’s or career pilots. They were mostly looking for quick skippers to accomodate their over inflated aviation sector.
That money was needed because no sane 40-50-60 yr old westerner would gladly move to a communist nation to live in a box and be subjected to communist rule. So they needed incentives. That’s it, nothing else.

As for EK the same counts as above, remember it’s a mega expensive muslim city in the desert, people in general do not want to go live there. Those other little feeder carriers you speak of lost many pilots and had crappy contracts. Their lack of pilots was not due to a shortage but due to bad contracts.

Next time you even think about “shortage of pilots” ask yourself why BA, KLM, LUFTI, AA, CX, AF or Qantas never had planes on the ground due to pilot shortage. There has never been nor will there EVER be a shortage of pilots but there will always be a shortage of good contracts.

As for the future of aviation, nobody knows really. It’s just a guess and every decision is a bet. 2024 is so far away and anything can happen,one thing is for sure the world will have too many pilot by then as well.

Jnr380
2nd Nov 2021, 14:20
I can tell you why the above mentioned airlines weren’t hiring (but in reality they actually were. I personally know of 3 CX crew who left in 2018 for QF). Those airlines weren’t really expanding to new destinations so they’re just replacing staff who were retiring or chasing the money as elsewhere.

When you have countries like AU, NZ and US putting pilots on their “shortage” immigration list and issuing respective visas like hot cakes, it’s because they’re running on data, a lot more substantiated, verified data not anecdotal evidence, which you seem to be running on.

gipilot
2nd Nov 2021, 15:35
Why they weren’t hiring, I never spoke of that. I suggest you go read my post again, everyone hires from time to time, I spoke about planes on the ground due to a lack of pilots. None of those carriers were canceling mass amount of flights due to pilots, and that was in the biggest aviation boom we’ve ever seen(2017-2019).

I’m sorry but you are totally mistaken, here in the US pilots are NOT on any immigration shortlist nor have visas been issued like hotcakes in aviation. I have no idea where you got this from or maybe just fabricated but it’s absolutely not the case. With this visa rubbish I’ve noticed you’re out of your depth in this matter. Ciao.

Pickuptruck
3rd Nov 2021, 00:04
Jnr380

I love the blind optimism that we're one day going to go back to the PanAm 1960's in renumeration and social status. Vietnam contract jobs currently are paying skippers $2-4 k a month, the regionals in the USA are paying marginally more. All the shortages are at places that had such piss poor pay and conditions that the locals didn't want to work there. Had nothing to do with a pilot shortage, or maybe it's a shortage of guys so desperate to get into flying they'll do it for marginally above free......

noboloco
3rd Nov 2021, 00:10
Jnr380

You might want to check before you spread misinformation. Particularly when accusing someone of going off anecdotal evidence since that is exactly what you seem to be going off. There is no shortage of pilots in NZ and it is not on the skilled shortage list, nor was it prior to COVID. You can check the immigration website yourself. The are no “visas like hot cakes” as you speak of. In Australia there was only a temporary shortage due to the mainline snapping up regional pilots but COVID has resolved all of that. Qantas has setup its own training school and will be more than capable of meeting its own demand going forward.

Jnr380
3rd Nov 2021, 01:57
There is actually peer reviewed journals on pilot shortages! My god, you seriously can’t be that stupid that you think you’re smarter or have more solid information than that, that has been peer reviewed…. Worse than Anti-Vaxxers

Fly747
3rd Nov 2021, 04:35
Please post a link to these fantasy articles so that we may benefit from the wisdom within.

Jnr380
3rd Nov 2021, 05:05
https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files/pdfs/news-events/articles/pilot-supply-regional-airlines.pdf?la=en

University of Nebraska study. (civil)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235023717_The_Air_Force_Pilot_Shortage_A_Crisis_for_Operatio nal_Units

Military shortage

Fly747
3rd Nov 2021, 05:31
OK, so the first one is from 2018 before the pandemic and the second is from 2012 . You’ll have to do better than that.

Jnr380
3rd Nov 2021, 05:37
Maybe take a read through the thread, where people were stating that there was never a shortage. Ive proven their view was wrong and I’m not going to entertain goalpost shifting.

Ecam321
3rd Nov 2021, 07:42
This management consulting firm Oliver Wyman have posted an interesting article regarding pilot shortage in the US post Covid
https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2021/mar/after-covid-19-aviation-faces-a-pilot-shortage.html

8driver
4th Nov 2021, 02:25
My nephew flies for the AA regional Piedmont. He got a signing bonus as a new hire in November, 2019. He was never furloughed despite the fact that it was the Rona and we were all gonna die. Now Piedmont is offering this: Piedmont Retention Bonus (https://www.businessinsider.com/piedmont-offering-30000-to-captains-and-upgrading-first-officers-2021-8). I worked in the US regional airline industry from 1989-1997. There was nothing like this. Nothing but pauper's wages. "Paying our dues". In fact starting in 1993 or so my regional required new hires to pay 10,000 dollars for training. They could opt out halfway through and get 5K back if they were failing. There was a pilot surplus, but now, in the US at least, there is indeed a shortage. My nephew will go further faster than I ever dreamed of, and thank God he has never mentioned Cathay.

Sam Ting Wong
4th Nov 2021, 03:50
8driver, good on your nephew, but you need to consider the base line. As you said yourself, the regionals offered salaries that were hardly survivable on. Plus a shortage at Hilbilly Air in Kentucky doesn't mean a shortage of real jobs at real airlines. Most pilots at Cathay don't have the right to work in the US anyway, so it's all a bit (peer reviewed!) academic rubbish.

Every new airline in Europe offers automatically worse conditions than the competitors. Every single one. The packages on offer are hideous, as are the working conditions. As e.g. Flying Clog will shortly find out, some operate a 777F with 3 men Europe-India- Far East in one go. Enjoy and repeat. And that for maybe half of what they earned after tax at Cathay. Some in this forum still see a future in the desert. Have a look at the offered pay and conditions, especially the block hours. Plus these places are absolutely terrible, who really wants to live voluntarily in these artificial, soul-less fake societies with medieval legislation and culture? Maybe if you are from a certain country in the southern hemisphere that makes their pilots worry about the safety of your family while they are at work,but otherwise? Have a look at formerly guaranteed sick leave, pension plans, etc. Shambolic. Some praise 90% free school in these places. Well, they are 100% free where I come from and you don't have to stay indoors half a year and you have human rights. Decisions, decisions..

Long gone is the hardship pay for expats, the new normal for a skipper in Asia is maybe 10k a month, 100 hrs block ultra-long haul with 24 hrs layover at a two and a half star Airport hotel, plus a "villa" in an expensive country I don't want to be. Or make that a shoe box in Tung Chung or some other suburbian dystopian nightmare somewhere in Asia. Awesome.

The universal trend of T&C is clearly downwards, and you need to be a die-hard and blind optimist to reject that.

How often have we been told there is a "looming" pilot shortage? I keep on hearing this since day one in the industry.

Jnr, I actually read the papers you linked. Did you? They do NOT say there was a shortage, they report of a brief recruitment issue at airlines that believed 15k a year is sufficient to offer. Its a fabricated myth. You have a "shortage" of everything if you offer below market pay. Everywhere. Its absurd. The studies only talk about a FORECASTED shortage, and well, we all know how that worked out. Again.

The future pilots will be working-class if they decide to live in their home country and mostly from unsafe/poor countries with useless passports abroad, that is my prediction. The US may offer some shelter for now, but in the long run it will see the same cut-throat race to the bottom conditions.

Any "exit strategy" is rendered useless if constantly all run to the exit at the same time.

Outside work is for 99% of us an illusion, a pipe dream, exit means, well, to exit the industry and retire, become a sand rat or a work slave at a low cost. If you want to call that a "exit strategy" go ahead, I for my part think it is a euphemism.

RAT Management
4th Nov 2021, 09:34
Well said STW. Yes an illusion for many of us for sure and the exit is as you say retirement or quit with not likely better prospects. Talk to the based guys who have been let go all them how their hunting is going.

Piet Lood
4th Nov 2021, 14:48
STW:
1.How can you NOT call yourself a defeatist?
2.Two wrongs don’t make a right.
3.HOW did we get to ever declining CoS’s?
You know my answer.

Sam Ting Wong
4th Nov 2021, 15:35
3. By people like you and me, aka the market.

Whatever airline you joined recently, it isn't a well paying one, that is certain. After many years in Cathay you can afford it, you have different work-balance needs as you had 20 years ago. You just want to be home. It suits you and that is totally ok. I have no problem with your career choice at all, but you must see that you are part of the problem, not the solution.

You are accepting market conditions that others can't or don't want to accept, and nothing else is happening everywhere all the time.

If you actually retired, maybe a younger (and poorer) version of yourself might have made a different decision. You maybe got hired directly in the left seat, which again your younger self might have met with less enthusiasm.

You are the demand, you are keeping this market alive, we all do. Don't you see that?

Piet Lood
4th Nov 2021, 16:06
You make quite the assumptions.
And your assumption makes an ASS of U but not ME.
I make more money now than I did in cx.
As far as being part of the problem: I voted with my feet in stead of continuing to complain or resigning to my fate.
As far as being “home”: wrong again.

Sam Ting Wong
4th Nov 2021, 16:37
Ok, let's assume this is true. In the midst of the worst crisis this industry has ever seen, Piet Lood found a better paying airline than Cathay. Fine.

What you don't see is: it is not about the absolute package, it is about your personal judgement what an acceptable package is. There is no right or wrong, no moral aspect whatsoever.

We are all just a bunch of homo economicus making self-centred decisions. That's it.

Piet Lood
4th Nov 2021, 16:43
Another THREE wrong assumptions, so I should probably give up on “educating” you, however…
my original premise was not about understanding market forces. I believe you and I BOTH understand those quite well. My premise was about you being a defeatist who is too afraid or comfortable to stand up for what is right, two wrongs not making a right and being on opposite sides of influencing said market forces.
You do you. I should have given up long ago on the idea of people like you changing their mind or being able to use some self-reflection.

Sam Ting Wong
4th Nov 2021, 16:51
Piet, you can't claim to accept and understand the market on one hand, and on the other ask me to "stand up and fight". Against whom? Fight how?

Think about it, you and a few hundred left. What changed? What would change if I leave?

Piet Lood
4th Nov 2021, 17:04
If ONLY you left, NOTHING mate.
But maybe you can put all that gathered wisdom, wealth, experience and preaching pulpit to some good and lead by example.
I know you want/need those last few silver pieces, but as Uncle Joe says: “Come on man”.

You sound like every other defeatist out there: “If I won’t do it, they’ll find someone else who will”.

It’s allright man, I get it. It’s hard.
All I am asking you own up to your defeatist label and wear it with pride in stead of making up excuses of why you are still selling your soul to the devil.
:mad: the next generation right?
You had to “fight” for where you are now, so why shouldn’t they?
We left aviation in a worse state than we found it and I for one am ashamed for my part in that decline. At least I TRIED to put my 2 cents in, in stead of throwing my hands in the air stating “it is what it is”.
”Better to have tried and failed, than to not have tried at all”. (Too lazy to find the reference, but google is your friend).

Sam Ting Wong
4th Nov 2021, 17:10
But what you are saying is not true. You did stay and accepted lower and lower conditions, for years and years, right up to your individual line in the sand.You had no problem to be on the demand side as long as it suited you. You did not leave for moral reasons, you left because you saw less benefit in staying than in leaving.

And now you declare your personal threshold as the universal "right" one, the line no other pilot shall cross. That is irrational and imperious.

"Hunger is the best sauce in the world."

Miguel de Cervantes, Don Quixote (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3836.Don_Quixote)

Piet Lood
4th Nov 2021, 17:21
Fair cop regarding the personal limit, but as I said: I take responsibility for my share in the decline and am ashamed of it.
Care to acknowledge your own part in the decline and apologise for your part?
Oh, I forgot, people like you are never wrong and don’t have anything to apologise for.
Good for you mate.

Piet Lood
5th Nov 2021, 05:33
Frank,
like STW you make many ASSumptions and some of them are wrong.
I already acknowledged that STW has a point in stating that I cannot expect others to abide by MY line in the sand, so I’ll repeat that acknowledgement to you if you want.
Let me assure you that I fought harder against the decline than most. Did I achieve anything? Apparently not. But again: I tried.
What did YOU ever do to try and turn the tide?
I gave up the good fight after realising I couldn’t get enough people to join it and that was well before covid and the current cos18 debacle.
If you guys don’t stand up now, you never will, but that’s no longer my problem.
It just pains me to see defeatists like STW who are extremely well off to try and convince others that it’s not worth fighting for what is right and try to achieve what he has achieved: a very comfortable lifestyle.
HE is allright Jack!

Bueno Hombre
6th Nov 2021, 10:20
The surprise with the Berlin Wall was that it did not fall much sooner.
The surprise with Cathay Pacific's Pilot's Pay is that it has not reached realistic levels sooner..

AtoBsafely
6th Nov 2021, 12:26
And the surprise on the top floors (and STW) will be that “the market” is not just pilot jobs. Many will leave Cathay for a job that has nothing to do with aviation. Many already have….. many more than 100.

Wake up!

MPPCAG
6th Nov 2021, 20:35
Bueno Hombre

So what is a 'realistic level' to live on in Hong Kong then? Please enlighten us all.

hyg
7th Nov 2021, 00:41
AtoBsafely

They will say something like pilots can't go into another job, have to start from the bottom, too late for that etc...

I am sure everyone has worked hard to get to where they are now, and they have every right to not want to start over again. But if one is so unhappy about the condition with his/her current employer and especially it has been going on for so long, why didn't he/she start seeking alternatives earlier in life, be it another employer, a side business or study something for another career....

Piet Lood
7th Nov 2021, 05:10
Some did and come on here to share their experience only to be told: “why don’t you move on in stead of hanging onto your past experience”.
In short: you are only allowed to comment on here if you’re happy with the current situation or agree with whoever posts such comments.

stevieboy330
7th Nov 2021, 08:30
Sure seems like Merlin Swire has his exit strategy all squared away after "exiting" in every way possible !

Cury Lamb
8th Nov 2021, 04:44
Oh me oh my, take your money and run. An important announcement will be made soon, watch this space when “trading in CX shares are suspended on the stock market”. #CXit

Sam Ting Wong
8th Nov 2021, 14:55
An exit strategy requires an entry component somewhere else, Curry.

Cury Lamb
8th Nov 2021, 16:28
Not necessarily.

Some smart cookies made lots of cash to splash, from multiple properties (all compliments of CXi), other clever investments (non airline stocks) etc, and will simply retire early.

For the poor sods stuck on POS18 (or whatever it’s called these days): hakuna matata, STW and the 3rd floors will cover your 6 o’clock :ok:

Pistolpete47
8th Nov 2021, 22:19
CX shares were up 5% yesterday...? albeit from a very low point but hardly a halt in trading.

Oli777
14th Nov 2021, 04:00
@cury lamb, and other smart cookies quickly found a wealthy sod and moved in there :ok: