Escalating aggression From China - New Cold War?

[CaptJackSparro]

This happened in the last two days:

China's largest military airspace incursion into Taiwan with nuclear-capable bombers Don't get me wrong, Taiwan has been complaining for more than a year about repeated missions by China's air force near the island, however, these instances appear to be escalating bigger and faster.

Also looking at the newly formed Aukus deal with the US and GB giving Australia nuclear capabilities, it seems that South East Asia is fast becoming the next powder-keg of instability.

Thoughts on the new developing cold war anyone?

[Oasis]

The Chinese are probably just trying to get familiar with how to get to Taiwan, in case they want to defect if the power outages persist.

[8driver]

They heard there were a couple of old coal mines in Taiwan. On a serious note, Australia is getting nuclear power capability. They aren't getting nuclear weapons capability, not that I'd mind them having it. The submarine deal with the French was an absurd deal where nuclear powered submarines were downgraded to diesel/ electric power at a greatly inflated cost to change the power plant. So downgrade power and capability and pay more just to pacify some tree huggers who go "oh dear, we're using nuclear power!" But these same folks also cry about climate change, which nuclear power would greatly reduce. And they'll sell coal to China to fuel that climate change. 🙄

[Whiteteanosugar]

Please stay informed and actually go search and look at what the self imposed Taiwan Air Defense zone looks like. The United States Armed Forces drew a large square-ish shape in the sky which covered large land masses over China and declared it Taiwan ADIZ. The ADIZ of China and Taiwan overlaps over a large area. Btw airspace above Xiamen is included.

Edited for accuracy.

[tonytales]

All Taiwan has to is to imitate North Korea and come up with a bomb. They immediately become bulletproof. No one will attack nuclear North Korea - a nuclear Taiwan ditto.

[kittywon]

Ho Hum. The PRC fired missiles for a week in the direction of Taiwan in the mid-1990s. Aircraft on A1 had to be re-routed by Notam of the missile firing area. In the week of firing to target the sea SW of Taiwan, the property market in HK rose 10%.

After decades of threatening Taiwan, there is a tendency to become blasé about the actions and words of the PRC. So it’s not the first time nor will it be last of these reoccurring “ threats”.

Those who get excited about the latest threats have a tendency to follow the alarmist western media without acknowledging the past history of the PRC threatening Taiwan.

[Cool Guys]

Don't forget the aggression from the US. Although this started decades ago so now it is like background noise that everyone has tuned out.

[pax britanica]

Surely no one is giving Aus nuclear capabilities just subs that run on nuclear power , they have no offensive capability but are able to help track Chinese 'Boomers' . as they are faster and have longer endurance than Diesel boats . They used to be much noisier though -I dont know if thats still the case. I assume its mostly to keep the Aussies engagded in Five eyes and as a unsinkable aircraft carrier for the Americans in the same way they viewed the UK back in the 20th century and presumably still do.

So its not a big deal except to the many Aussies who understandably dislike nuclear anything having been used as test range by the Brits back in the 50s and 60s. Basing them in Adelaide doesn't help as the tests were done mostly in SA and Adelaide is a very liberal town, its also about three thousand miles from where any action might be. Quite what the Aussies are worried about with China and their nukes is I dont know since most of the country looks like it has already been nuked anyway and can only just support its current population in terms of water resources so no opportunity for any Chinese Lebensraum there

[union]

Could someone tell the Chinese airforce to keep flying towards Australia and free the citizens living in Sydney and Melbourne under dictatorship! Please help us China! Maybe China could educate the Australians about human rights !

[hyg]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-05/taiwan-foreign-minister-warn-war-china-global-geopolitical-order/100511960

The ABC just did a piece on this

[krismiler]

Aussie submarines might not carry nuclear weapons but the do carry torpedos which sink ships, just ask the Argentinians about their cruiser General Belgrano.

A multitude of submarines from various western countries patrolling in the South China Sea would make the Chinese think very carefully before getting too aggressive. At the very least it would require significant resources to be directed towards anti submarine warfare, and this is an area in which they are well behind.

China is vulnerable to a costal blockade as all of its sea ports are located on the eastern side in a relatively small area of its total border, unlike the USA which has ports thousands of miles apart serving different oceans. With Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines nearby, and most Chinese shipping having to pass through choke points on the way in and out, being cut off is a real possibility.

They of course know this, the Belt and Road initiative aims for alternative transport arrangements using ports in other countries connecting into the rail network.

[galdian]

What am I missing?

In timelines no submarines arriving (at best) for at least 15 years so in themselves irrelevant, the grouping and intent of different countries coming together is significant.
The PRC military build up over the last 5 years has been intense, Xi Jinping's vision for the future of China - which is probably far from the general desire of the plebs - will happen "tomorrow" so that he can bask in the glory he's brought China, he's not going to wait for 15 years until those pesky subs arrive.

The stage has been set with the trade crap China has been throwing Australia the last few years, time to build on that groundwork "tomorrow".

So what will be Australia's position/response if/when Xi Jinping pushes things along "tomorrow" (which I'd suggest within the next 3 years max)??

The actual submarines are irrelevant to the next few years.

Cheers

[Bokpiel]

Whiteteanosugar

Well it's not as if China is playing by the rules in the South China Sea regarding borders.

[Whiteteanosugar]

Below is an excerpt from an article from SupChina as to why the surge of planes now. Or it could be what you say, a show to divert attention. Who knows. I myself believe China has pure military motivations for the excursions. Why the surge now?

Many news articles point out that October 1 is China’s National Day, and October 10 is Taiwan’s, so the period in-between is especially politically charged. But the Financial Times points out, “Last year, however, there was no marked increase in air incursions by China’s People’s Liberation Army.”

One possibility is that China is reacting to “the arrival of an armada east of the island comprising ships from the U.S., U.K., and four other countries” — France, the Netherlands, Canada, and New Zealand — for military exercises, per the Wall Street Journal.

Another possibility is that the surge is a reaction to Taiwanese efforts to gain more international recognition:

Diplomatic mission naming: Last month, the Financial Times reported that the U.S. was “seriously considering” a Taiwanese proposal to change the name of Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington, D.C., from “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to “Taiwan Representative Office.”
Former Australian PM visiting: “Tony Abbott has arrived in Taiwan to speak at a regional forum…He will be received by Taiwan’s most senior figures including the president, Tsai Ing-wen, the foreign minister, Joseph Wu, and the secretary general of the national security council,” per the Guardian.
French politicians to visit: “A group of French senators including a former defence minister will visit Taiwan this week, the island’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday,” Reuters reports.
European meetings upcoming: “Later this month, Taiwan’s chief economic planner is scheduled to lead a 65-strong delegation to several central and eastern European countries,” per the Financial Times.

More motivations for ADIZ incursions

According to a thorough report on ADIZs in East Asia by Mercedes Trent for the Federation of American Scientists, China has at least four motivations for flying military aircraft into other ADIZs:

Training pilots for long-range flights that include interaction with foreign air forces.
Gathering information on other militaries, since crossing into an ADIZ triggers predictable responses.
Demonstrating air power — “sabre rattling” to signal to foreigners and domestic citizens the military’s resolve to protect security and sovereignty.
To “decouple coalitions resistant to Chinese influence in the region.” On this last point, Trent explains:

China not only seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea, and the United States from one another, but to also manipulate possible domestic political cleavages to its advantage, such as those potentially between Taiwanese citizens and the Tsai government and between Japan’s hardline security establishment and more cautious partners like the Komeito [conservative political party].

Another possible motivation that is perhaps more specific to Taiwan ADIZ incursions, and mentioned by the New York Times, is simply wearing down the Taiwanese air force. “The strain of responding to China’s regular intrusions is wearing on Taiwanese pilots and aircraft, and it could be affecting the island’s overall vigilance, experts said.”