Cape Air Crash at KPVC

[Lake1952]

Cape Air is a Part 121 air carrier that has multiple local networks. Yesterday, there was a significant accident at Provincetown on the tip of Cape Cod in Massachusetts, KPVC. The Cessna 402 with one pilot and 6 passengers ended up in a stand of trees.. There was a post impact fire. All 7 occupants were transported to Cape Cod Hospital with fractures and burns. The aircraft is a total write off. NTSB investigators arrived on scene this morning.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/cape-air-flight-crashes-at-massachusetts-airport-no-deaths-reported

[treadigraph]

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/267491

[pattern_is_full]

Some post-crash video here - does seem to comport with treadigraph's link - "mist and rain."

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/weather-likely-to-blame-for-provincetown-plane-crash/2488470/

Some tailwind component for runway 7. ILS, LOC and RNAV available for that runway, RNAV and NDB for the favored runway 25 but with higher minimums.

[DaveReidUK]

Photos would suggest that the C402 travelled around 900 feet beyond the end of the runway, crossing the airport access road before coming to a stop in the trees.

[Lake1952]

Obviously, the weather will be analyzed carefully. But being local to the area, I can say that the Cape was hosting a line of severe thunderstorms at the time of the accident with the TV meteorologists discussing whether the doppler was displaying evidence of rotation in the cells. Although we hate jumping to early conclusions, I would be very surprised if this accident didn't involve a microburst or something similar. Then the questions arise about the wisdom of attempting the flight in the first place. BOS-PVC is a 15 minute up and down for those not familiar. In other words, you know what your destination weather is currently when you roll onto the runway.

[FUMR]

Cape Air pilots fly this short 15 minute sector safely dozens of times a week. Can familiarity create a false sense of security?

[pattern_is_full]

I would be very surprised if this accident didn't involve a microburst or something similar.

Possibly.

Clip from a passenger TV interview:

Autumn Kerr......said that as the plane was landing it ran into trouble. "We were obviously not going to land and picked back up.....[then the plane] just hit the ground in the trees and burst into flames in the front, and then the right side bursts in the flames."

Could be the plane was ballooned by microburst outflow from the far end of the runway when trying to touch down, then hit the core downdraft. Or could be a balked landing that encountered the same downdraft. Or both.

[Lake1952]

https://twitter.com/DrewKaredes/status/1436133555545968640?s=20

[RatherBeFlying]

At low Ievel in a microburst the downdraft is fanning out; so, as you enter there's a sudden headwind increase followed with an equivalent sudden tailwind increase on the way out.

My recorder showed the flight path through the core of the downburst I encountered was some 200m. It may have been wider.

[pattern_is_full]

UPDATE: According to another Cape Air pilot who observed the landing and crash, the accident aircraft was landing "a little fast," landed long, rejected the landing and began to climb, but failed to climb fast enough to clear the trees. Preliminary NTSB report.

https://www.wickedlocal.com/story/provincetown-banner/2021/09/29/provincetown-cape-air-plane-crash-attempted-take-off-hit-trees/5900039001/