How times have changed.

[Avinthenews]

Rumour is, so far three crew have resigned from CX rather than be drafted to fly the 747.

[Curry Lamb]

Perhaps they were anti-vaxxers and forced to resign. Will be an interesting court case, should someone decide to drag CXit to court over unfair dismissal :}

[Dilbert68]

Being drafted onto the 747 was just the straw that broke the camels back. People are fed up with this pathetic contract, this incompetent government and generally a bleak outlook for a very long time. Any of us that have managed to get away to our home countries, see that people are resuming some semblance of a normal life, albeit with some restrictions. You never have to worry about being rounded up and sent to jail because you spent 5 mins with an individual that tested positive for covid. If you test positive, the advice is to stay home and self-isolate and come to the hospital if your condition worsens. Contrast this to HK where the CHP and the police show up in full hazmat suits and drag you away against your will.
This job and this city are finished, maybe that is by design? Who knows?
It just takes a little push, for these individuals the push was the 747 course. Anybody who can leave, will leave. There is no point in staying in this miserable place any longer.

[Fly747]

There are rumours of losing some of the quarantine alleviations for crew later this month. If that happens it will load a few more straws onto the camel.

[Backupnav]

They are doing it wrong. Get the rating, then leave. :E

[Farman Biplane]

Those 3 must be absolute millionaire morons, don’t they realise how valuable a B747 type rating is…….

[Oasis]

you don’t know their personal situation, maybe there are things more important than more money..

[MENELAUS]

Yes as in not being treated like :mad: for hauling rubber dog :mad: around, and almost permanent incarceration on your supposed days off.

[Oasis]

Cathay is really burning its bridges with this ‘cannot’ attitude.

-late rosters
-no sympathy for missing a duty due to changing covid rules.
-late notice of unpaid leave.
-based crew could fly sectors from outside hkg to in, 24 hrs in a hotel, fly back, no weeks of quarantine…. ‘Cannot’
-no reduced roster option any more.

etc etc

People who haven’t seen wife and kids overseas in over a year, insane.

The company needs to be more flexible, not only to rake in more money on the business side, but more so on the human side.

[Firefly47]

Honestly when you call someone a moron for not wanting to fly the most "iconic passenger aircraft of all time" you truly live in a different world.

[triple7driver]

I think covid has given most a glimpse of a world outside of Cathay, no longer were you constantly distracted by the fast paced rat race that comes with the lifestyle... whereas before the money was worth putting up with the inconveniences, now that is no longer the case and people have realigned their priorities in life.

Many more guys will resign way before their retirement date, just wait until the 2 year ARAPA transition ends

[dabz]

The company has too many crew and they cannot fire enough of them fast enough.

So make the crews life miserable any which way you can and they will leave on their own.

I reckon the company could do a lot more to make life easier with all these crazy hk gov covid restrictions but they have too many of us and therefore don't wanna help. Rather let the crew suffer so they leave.

They also have the perfect tool to find rock bottom, POS18.

Got too many crew? keep slashing conditions till they go. Don't have enough crew? Slightly increase conditions till you have what you need.

The company will always be able to pay the absolute minimum they have too, why would you ever want to pay above and beyond what you have too ever again...

[Oasis]

They’re going to have to explain all the empty flight decks at the annual shareholders meeting, once business returns.

[triple7driver]

when will that be? :rolleyes: lets be real, flying isn't returning to pre-pandemic normal for HK anytime before 2023...

[8driver]

2023? What happens if there is one case of the Omega variant in HKG, Australia, or NZ in 2023? There doesn't appear to be any stop date for the COVID zero lunacy, so I think 2023 is being overly optimistic.

[Oasis]

Covid is never ever going to go away, unfortunately.

it will have to be another thing to manage like the flu, except that you either have to get the vaccine or get covid and survive it in order to prevent a large amount of deaths or long covid.
Then booster shots for the elderly, after this new variants won’t really matter.

Eventually governments will figure this out and grow some balls and open up the countries, zero covid strategy will not work.
politicians care only about one thing when they make decisions; how does this make me look?
the only way forward is opening up, sooner or later.

[Dilbert68]

Nobody knows how or when this insanity will end. If I had to guess, HK will be one of the very last places to lift restrictions and only when big brother says so. Cathay doesn't care about you, your family or your mental health. Maybe the flight decks will be empty when and if this thing turns around and maybe they will be forced to improve the contract when that happens.
For myself, they could go back to A scale and I wouldn't stay. Working for this organization is not worth it. There is far more to life than money.

[dabz]

HK's priority is opening the boarder to China. They don't care about any other international destination. They will even restrict everywhere else just to get that China boarder open.
China has covid cases, HK does not yet it's China that doesn't want to open.. that's when you know it's political.

HK and China will be one of the last places on the planet to ditch the zero covid policy.

Picture a bubble around HK and China and outside of that bubble is everywhere else and everywhere else is back to pre covid flying...

On a side note, recently CX put up all that advertising in kitty city about their new brand "cathay" and all those dumb slogans like move beyond. What a waste of money...

[smogluver]

Oli777

Morons? FFS you have no clue what the Cathay guys have gone through. Your attitude is the reason this industry is a complete mess. You obviously are missing a lot or do not have a family or children or a backbone to work it out

[Rie]

dabz

Recently? The new group branding has been there since it was announced. You have got to get into the office more for some good old bootlicking. You'll see the changes sooner.

[AQIS Boigu]

Maybe the Lamb Curry should apply the new FDMM to solve the Covid crisis

[Memorylapse]

smogluver

You have no idea what the Cathay guys have gone through? Did I read that right? Being paid and sitting at home and having 600+ SO’s that worth nothing in this aviation world, whilst locals were displaced? Who’s the moron here? MORON!

[RAT Management]

Moron? Everybody here is a moron. You are, I am and the proof is people( morons ) paying brand new price for jeans with holes in them.... Now who's the moron?

[Oli777]

wait, sitting at home having a great time, partying 24/7 and getting paid for it for the last +1.5 years?! I'm sorry, but if there are 3 people out there that resign because they can't do a few weeks away from home, well then that says something. (hence why I said they must have a very rich hubby to fall back on) It will not be forever, if you have to "sacrifice" a few weeks every month or two, then why is that so bad? The problem comes from guy & girls with a silver spoon mentality that have never had to wash their own dishes, let alone do their own laundry. No one is asking you to screw yourself over, or work for free (even thought the 777 crew are having the time of their lives all for free!) Would it not be fair to say, wow CX has given me +1.5 years of free money, maybe I could help them out for a few weeks until all this settles down, if that takes 1 year or 2, so be it. It will not be forever, rosters, time off, normal flying will return.

There are those who did actually sacrifice a lot to get into CX, like the Saffers on contract away from home for 2 months plus on rotations in crap countries in shocking accommodations, military pilots who are away just as long if not longer etc, they did it for 10x longer time periods. It's not the end of the world and a 747 rating is incredible to have.

And no I'm not a company man or a commie from the Mainland, but I do hate silver spooners who moan.

----you may now start the backlash, aaaaand go!----:}

[quadspeed]

There is writing on the wall, and while I commend your optimism It does not reflect the gravity of the situation.

The fiirst recovery will be / is domestic air travel.

​The second is travel within unions / partnerships. EU or Canada - US, HK - mainland as examples.

​​​​​​The third is intercontinental. The leisure marked will not return to this segment for many, many years, maybe never. Point to point travel to HK is not enough, Cathay sells transit between Asia and the rest of the world. That puts the airline in the worst possible situation considering virus mutations and the highly ustable travel advisories being constantly amended. The lack of standardised vaccine passes, various vaccines being used and the different amount of doses being applied to various populations compunded by the out-of-synch regional outbreaks makes for grim propects of intercontinental travel.

And that's before even mentioning the political situation in HK. A gweilo airline has no future in that landscape.

Just saying.

[Asturias56]

"A gweilo airline has no future in that landscape." - I think the plan has clearly been that it WON'T be such an airline in the foreseeable future - it will be another Chinese airline but with a higher than average number of non-Chinese pilots - for a while............

[quadspeed]

My point exactly. Politically, it's a non-starter to even insinuate that a Chinese airline needs non-chinese pilots. For the manpower, perhaps, but not because they bring anything to the table that the Chinese don't already have. Cathay has been insinuating that point for 73 years; the Asian airline with a western mindset, which does not fly well in Beijing (pun intented). .

Of course you can argue all day long about culture, CRM, experience, adaptability and just culture, but it will be an absolute waste of time because it all comes down to politics.

[redfish777]

Cathay can still sell transit if the airport can handle the movement of people without infections

[quadspeed]

You're really not getting it. What transit passengers? Going from where to where? You're not going to see any recovery in transit before you see a rise in point-to-point.

[Rie]

Relatively big numbers are still able to transit. The Chinese were using CX when the 5/1 was in place as it was a guaranteed jump back to the states.

[Asturias56]

" but it will be an absolute waste of time because it all comes down to politics."

and economics - why pay expats when you can pay locals?

[quadspeed]

Rie

But it's not about the ability to transit. It's about the global movement of passengers of which CX had a significant share. That global movement of passengers is not coming back anytime soon, perhaps never.

Carriers that operate domestically or within regions / unions will see a significant recovery on much shorter timelines.

[Curry Lamb]

Don’t tell NC this, as he/she/it/LGBTQ+/XYZ/E=MC is adamant that the good times will come flying back to HK and CXit :ugh:

[Staticport]

Oli777

Have you already forgotten about the 40%+ permanent pay cut? That part is certainly forever. Not that it matters to me, I voted with my feet!

[Firefly47]

"I'm not a company man" after saying we should help them out....

[Memorylapse]

Still better than those who probably had to take a paycut forever….

[Castle Don]

Putting the main aspect of this thread aside for a moment, of what possible “value” is a B747 type rating? Is anyone looking for rated 747 pilots? Seems like an A350 or B777 rating would be far more useful for the years ahead.

[8driver]

Yep, Atlas and Kalitta to name two, and the 777 rating is useful there as well. If you have the right to live and work in the US that is.

[controlledrest]

I flew the -400. Nice to fly. So, if your sitting on your ass and haven't any Boeing time, grab the -8 rating. If it doesn't work out for you quit.

[Cortisol Depleted]

A number of the European B744 freight operators are recruiting/have recruited recently. Some of them also have a large contingent of pilots from legacy carriers waiting to return when seats become available after their fleets were closed down. This will generate jobs for people with B744 ratings.

[carolknows]

How many captains have left the company since covid? And FOs. Can someone remind me?

[Oasis]

There are no more farewell posts, so there may be too many to cope with. My seniority number keeps climbing.

[Memorylapse]

As if seniority matters in CX…..

[Oasis]

It matters, if you want to see if people above you are leaving.

[Rie]

The seniority list is by far the best way to go work out the numbers. Check SO friends if you want the true number. I've jumped more than expected in the last two months alone. Just wait for EK to hire the DEC and it'll skyrocket.

[Memorylapse]

Duh - what a rocket scientist you are. I am not talking about a seniority list. My question was if seniority exists anymore in CX? Didn’t you sign it away?

[Rie]

Well and truely lost on the new POS. Won't be back but you already knew that...

[carolknows]

Faster command time then

[Bangaluru]

Seniority exists in CX. It’s no use to us. It’s arguable if it’s been any use to us for a long time. But they do update the seniority list regularly, it’s the most current data about departures available to us.

[carolknows]

Get a speedy upgrade (especially with all the senior folks being forced to retire early and depart due to these unforeseen circumstances) and then if your passport allows, better doors will open!

[Veruka Salt]

Carol, an airline surviving as a fraction of its former size won’t lead to speedier commands, despite the resignations. Probably the opposite.

[carolknows]

The mass exodus is faster than the current downsizing. And post covid when travel picks up.

[btrdux]

Don't think HKG is gonna have a "post covid"...

[carolknows]

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/08/19/hong-kong-to-launch-overseas-campaign-advertising-city-as-best-place-in-asia-following-us6-4m-pr-consultation/

Eventually. Be positive lads!
How do you live life being so negative here all the time?

[Bokpiel]

I'm sure people will be streaming in for their 3-week quarantine after reading that BS ad.

Ps. Trying to be positive, but the gov go out of their way to make it miserable for us over here.

[Oasis]

Going back to seniority numbers, I checked the seniority number of the last SO on the list on april 23 2021.

He/she was on number 3109, now it is 2848. So that should mean 261 pilots left in the last 138 days.

[Dingleberry Handpump]

Yes, and the list presently includes the EUR/NAM basees; of which very, very few will return.

[Posterizing]

I for one have been foolishly tracking my seniority number for the past number of years (what an idiot thinking i'd ever get an upgrade....but thats another story)
I believe my numbers can provide an insight on the historical and current "retention" rates. (for the lack of a better word)
The numbers are the spots ive moved up for each month
2018
October - 8
November - 9
December - 5
2019
January - 21
February - 15
March - 13
April - 19
May - 20
June - 11
July - 10
August - 13
September - 8
October - 10
November - 11
December - 9
2020
January - 6
February - 2
March - 10
April - 10
May - 13
June - 6
July - 7
August - 10
September - 3
October - 50 (yay pos18)
November - 42
December - 39
2021
January - 32
February - 45
(at this point I gave up tracking each month, but from the beginning of march to the end of july - 240 nope not a typo, two four zero)
August - 38

yeah so those are the numbers, interpret them as you like

[triple7driver]

carolknows

thanks for the laugh, I needed it! :}

[Backupnav]

Posterizing

There is nothing to interpret. Everybody knows what is going on in this madhouse : some retirements, a lot of resignations and generalised bases closure. I am afraid it does not equate to an improvement of our package or to a reduction in quarantine requirements.

[Numero Crunchero]

Ha ha - thanks for not specifying my gender or sexual preference Curry Lamb - very PC of you ;-)

In 2 or 3 or 4 years yes we will be at the new normal. The very fact that flying has reached or exceeded pre covid levels in some domestic markets suggests to me that one day people will fly internationally as much as they did precovid. I dont know what that will look like - just like I didn't know straight away what flying would look like post 9-11. But flying returned to, and then exceeded, pre 9-11 figures. So yes I am an optimist - I do believe that within some time (1 or 2 or 3 or 4 years) CX flying will exceed pre covid. That is assuming we dont get rid of a whole lot of a/c since we are severely undermanned in any scenario that has us flying more than 70% of what we flew pre covid for a few years.

Manning in Jul 2018 - we had 1223 CN, 1456 FO and 549 SO. Beginning of last year we had roughly 100 more pilots total but dont have the accurate breakdown - but let's just assume an extra 30CN, 40FO and 30SO extra. So that means roughly 1260 CNs, 1500 FOs and 590SOs in Jan 2020.

Today we have just over 900 CNs - of which we may lose another 100+ from Europe/LHR/North America - so maybe 800ish in a few months from now. So we are short over 450 CNs from CX mainline.

KA had roughly 250CN and 250FO - so we need ANOTHER 250CNs to man all those shiny new A321s and extra 330s.

So we NEED about 700CNs to get back to 100% manning - it will take a few years to train that many - maybe 4-6years?
We are undermanned on mainline by about 200 or so FOs - plus lose another 100+ from the aforementioned bases - means we need 300 to get back to 100% - plus another 700 to replace the 700 upgraded.

So to get back to 100% manning will take many years - it is NOT something that can be achieved in a year or two. So the options are - slow recovery from covid (say 3-5 years) then the training machine can keep up (maybe?) or just get rid of a/c to save face. I suspect the latter.

[carolknows]

Love your analysis NC
Also, do factor in the people leaving when housing is effective no more. Many are in the stages of planning their exit. When this happens and (leisure and biz) travel starts picking up....

[Oasis]

It will be interesting to how successful the company will be in trying to attract new pilots under the current cos in such large numbers, especially as many many other companies will be hiring too in that scenario.

Market forces finally slated to work in our favour?

[jakekenobi]

Great post NC, but you forgot that they don`t need so many pilots....CX wet dream became reality just in time...

https://simpleflying.com/cathay-paci...-a350-flights/ (https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific-single-pilot-a350-flights/)

[Oasis]

phew, look at the comments in that article... not the best thing to be a pioneer with as an airline.

1. they will still need a dog
2. who flies when you have to go to the bathroom?

[Dingleberry Handpump]

Slightly confused at CX’s statement that ends with saying “it all depends on how the pandemic plays out”..

What does the pandemic have to do with single pilot ops?

Also - it doesn’t alter the number of captains needed..

[LLLQNH]

because if things continue the way they are Cathay will go out of business and won't be around in 2025 when they want to do this

[jakekenobi]

Dingleberry Handpump

Exactly , safety issues aren't addressed, and i hope we all remember Air France 447, especially CAA-s around the world, i just can't comprehend that they are even thinking about it.

Cutting costs, OK i understand, but how far does that go...the bean counters from Wall street have entered the cockpit, bye bye safety.

I am glad that there are many comments, and that the argument against will be strong if that motion comes to life, lessons from AF447 gone to waste.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Air_France_Flight_447

[smogluver]

Lessons? CX has got rid of some of its more experienced baby sitters and now they are talking single pilot. These people are seriously “move beyond”. When the inevitable occurs the CAAC will be rushing in with their biggest nutcrushing boots on. Penny Bay going to be the least of your worries

[carolknows]

Posterising

Please continue to log and monitor the numbers, and share the big numbers with us in months to come! Will be interesting

Numero Crunchero

NC, what do you propose as incentives to get more become trainers?

[doolay]

Incentives not required anymore. With POS18 Trainers are appointed by the company.

[Posterizing]

carolknows

If numbers are a thing of interest, during August 2020 I did a count of the number of crew and sorted them by rank and fleet. Took a look just now (August 2021) and made a little table for comparison. The based crew numbers are rather strange as almost all canadian/ frankfurt based crew can still be seen on the list (not sure if that means they are returning to Hong Kong, but most likely an issue of a not up to date list as there is a huge drop in numbers for our Australian based colleagues). Expecting the London numbers to go down in the future as well.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1466x848/screen_shot_2021_09_09_at_11_21_20_am_16c1539fa593855511850a 3495d4c289ca68ebb7.png

[carolknows]

Wow thank you for putting time into this!
Strange that the base figures are not up to date. But true, sadly those who have recently taken up a London last couple years would certainly not in any way consider returning!
How do you analyze the ratio of 777 fos to cns? And the future trend of this?

[Posterizing]

Looking from Aug 2020 to Aug 2021, theres a drop of 340 777 CNs. This coincided with a 140 increase on the 747, and a 50 increase on the airbus, and 27 on the 320s. It would therefore seem that the majority of the total loss of around 130 captains from all fleets came from the 777, either from retirement/ resignation. Id be expecting the 777 CN number to go down even further with more drafting to the 320 and the 747, and now with rumours that the 777 fleet is going to be reduced to only a small fraction of what it used to be.

777 FO numbers dropped only slightly comparatively by a number of 120. Interestingly this is also the total number of HKG based FOs lost from Aug 2020 to Aug 2021. This once again happened with a increase of 70 on the 747, but a drop of 30 on the airbus. (Will not be counting the 27 on the 320 as most of those are DEFOs from dragonair.) Therefore it would seem from the numbers that FOs spread more evenly from all fleets made up the total loss of 120 FOs between Aug 2020 - Aug 2021.

If you look at CN/FO ratios back in Aug 2020, only the 777 had a close to 1:2 ratio. Both the 747 and Airbus were closer to a 1:1 ratio. The current ratio of 1 CN to 2FOs on the 777 fleet somewhat makes sense if you think about the future direction of the company, which is to make the 777 the workhorse for high demand long haul/ ultra long haul flights, while leaving the shorter flights for the other fleets. However, considering the ratios of the other fleets and 2SO ops etc, I would expect that the company is planning to bring 777 FO numbers further down, most probably by drafting to other fleets mainly the 320. This is just a guess but the initial draft to other fleets most likely focused on captains, which may also explain the current skewed ratio on the 777.

[carolknows]

Poster! You will be the perfect candidate to do budgeting for the company! Thanks for the analysis!

In your opinion, when do you expect the 777 number to stabilize? Especially the current draft of captains. Assume long haul travel starts picking up next year... How much further is the 777cn number going to spiral? How many years will this draft spread across? And do you expect the 777 FOs due to be upgraded this and next year be automatically sent to other fleets? Interested in your deep investigation and scrutiny!

[Posterizing]

If rumours that the 777 fleet is to be shrunk to less than a quarter of what it used to be is true (around 10 planes), a number of around 100 CNs and 150 FOs would make sense. This would require 80 more CNs and 250 FOs to leave the 777 fleet. Coincidentially enough, 250 CNs and 250 FOs was the ballpark figure of Dragonair pilots. Considering their fleet of half A320 and half A330, it would be a good ballpark figure to assume that half of the crew were tasked to fly the A320. The 330 extra 777 crew would perfectly fill that void. (minus a few from resignations/ retiring)

I think we would all agree that though this shrinking of the 777 fleet is a short term measure (5 year period would be a good ballpark figure), the company is most likely not concerned about maintaining the 777 fleet crew compliment, and is focusing on building the 320 fleet as that is expected to be the fleet that would return to full capacity the earliest. Only when capacity really returns to a point where the 777 makes financial sense will they then either transfer crew back to the 777 from the 330/747, or do further hiring. Therefore, from a cost point of view, and from what the company have done in the past, it would not make sense for FOs to be upgraded to the 777 in the near future, as it would be money spent now, when it could be spent later (thus making it someone else's problem). A safe bet therefore is to expect more hiring from the Dragonair pool, and more drafts from the 777 in the future to fill the 320 spots .

Sidenote: I dont think id be interested in the bean counting, I only do these analysis to try and make better career decisions, glad that you are finding it interesting though.

[carolknows]

Very interesting how you managed to calculate these stats! Next scenario, if 200 FOs were to be forced off the 777, how does this selection take place? Random selection? 2 out of 3 FOs next in line for 777 upgrade get randomly allocated to another fleet? What's your take on this?

[carolknows]

Numero Crunchero, I'm also interested to hear your take and predictions on Poster's figures and analysis!

[Posterizing]

Id be surprised if any get on the 777 at all. Looking at the last 200 FOs who have been ugraded to CNs, only 11 were to the 777. If you zoom closer and only look at the last 140, the number drops to 3, and that was when there was actual flying on the 777.

[AnAmusedReader]

Hong Kong law does not recognise the concept of unfair dismissal.

[Jnr380]

it’s only going to get worse…..I was advised the other day that they’re going to go for forced closed loop. You have the right to say no, but they’ll put you on SLV for the month(s) they can’t utilise you.

We’ll see how many people will be walking out the door, never to return if this happens. I, for one will be on a one way ticket back home

[controlledrest]

Perhaps the stress of separation from family for some under closed loop will be too much and a doctor might recommended some extended sick leave.

[carolknows]

I don't know about you, but watching those Instagram videos of 777 CNs being trained over on the jumbo... You can tell they didn't really fancy being interviewed. :(

[Rie]

That was a tense interview, clearly chuffed to be back there.
Looking down further you can see everyone is over his crap.

[Dingleberry Handpump]

They’re always super awkward, because Captain Superjet just can’t help himself dragging others into his weird obsession with recording.

Absolutely no way I’d allow him to film me.

[turnandburn]

All these numbers are just garbage, 321 courses canned with ex dragon getting DEFO A350.
Those going to 747, unless your in the top 25 the probability of getting off is almost zero.
You need to do 2 years after line check at least, you need 2 years 3 months before retirement you need a course to be available, you need that to match your seniority, Plus every time a current 747 cn leaves 1 more is locked in until death.
Cx still bleeding cash daily, freight is earning money but cx market share being taken by other carriers getting into cargo.

[carolknows]

If you read the humourous take on "joining Qatar post-covid" thread on this forum, after having a giggle, you'd soon realise it sounds very familiar.....

[carolknows]

To digress a bit, from China Daily
https://govt.chinadaily.com.cn/s/202108/28/WS612c84e0498e6a12c1204f13/animation-hk-ties-in-with-nations-new-five-year-plan.html (https://govt.chinadaily.com.cn/s/202108/28/WS612c84e0498e6a12c1204f13/animation-hk-ties-in-with-nations-new-five-year-plan.html)

"The plan supports HK enhancing its status as an international financial, trade and transportation hub, and proposes to bolster its role as an international aviation hub and innovation and technology center." Keen to know what plans to bolster HK's role as an international aviation hub within these 5 years. Some hope right there though! Stay positive!

[Numero Crunchero]

I haven't heard any rumblings of a massive downsizing of the 777 fleet. It would make no sense anyway. Increasing our per unit cost by having LESS aircraft is just plain (plane? ;-) stupid.

If you look at past Annual reports (incl 2021 interim) you will see that we have been planning to return 21 leased 777ERs over several years. Originally we were supposed to be replacing them with 21 777-9 from 2021onwards but obviously that has been delayed (fortuitously). So we will be down 10-30% on 777 numbers for a year or three until we get those deliveries.

If you look at the increase in the 747 fleet I suspect that was partially to mitigate the complaints of over work prior to covid, desperation to ensure maximum pilot numbers to ensure maximum utilisation of freighter a/c, and maybe some foresight that based 747 pilots might be leaving our company. So an increase in around 130 in Hong Kong would be offset by many leaving from bases. And there is much anecdotal evidence that many are happy to go to the 747 to get the type rating (and get current) before leaving for greener pastures over the next year or two.

Currently it makes sense to 'rob Peter to pay Paul' with Peter obviously being the 777. But as I have indicated over several posts, we are going to be MASSIVELY short of pilots if we keep all the aircraft in a post lockdown world.

If it made sense to fire 100s if not 1000s they would have done so. They know enough to know that it takes a long time to grow your numbers. So a cheaper way to do it if you have enough work for 50% is to pay everyone 50% so that you keep the total number constant and yet pay 50% of your original salary bill.

Fear is the issue.
As FDR said - "you have nothing to fear but fear itself". Waiting outside the principal's office, or the dentist waiting room, is far more stressful than what occurs inside.

(note - good job with the current stats Posterizing)

[VforVENDETTA]

What would have made sense was to right-size the manpower to approximately match the amount of work that was left for the business. This is what every other airline has done, in this downturn and others in the past when the downturn proves to be longer than short term. It makes no sense to bleed cash in form of paying salaries to staff staying at home for OVER 1.5 years after it had become very apparent this was not going away soon. Before someone says "oh but jobs saved" It's a business after all, not a charity. They've shortened the survival ability of the business having made the decision they made. With the number of pilots leaving cathay at an average of 8 per month pre-covid and now 40 a month, let's look at exacrly who is leaving. The very junior crew with little or no experience have nowhere to go. Nobody will hire them anytime soon. The very senior with 5 or less years left to retire likely won't leave because they hope to be able to stretch it out until retirement without taking a big dip in earnings during the last years of their career. Those who fall between these two groups will be the first ones to get jobs elsewhere and go. The very segment who will be in line to be the captains and senior FOs of a year or two from now. The ones who will be carrying the bulk of operational expertise... oh except they will also be the first ones to leave when the hiring starts! So who exactly are they expecting to keep this operation going... with any efficiency OR without the occasional hull loss?! The very ones they need are the same who are already in process of exodus, some are even forced to via base closures. The exodus will become bigger as market picks up.cathay already has absolutely no hope of training even 40 a month to replace or maintain the crew numbers even if they can attract and hire with whatever CoS they offer and to whom. They've never had the training capacity to train that many, even when hiring direct entry. Whatever amount they can train and put on the line will be constantly going thru the revolving door anyway requiring to replace even those. Exactly the most valuable crew they need to keep are the ones leaving already. Keeping all the crew and cutting their pay & benefits to half and thinking "we've had out cake and eaten it too" will prove to be a major mistake. When what you're doing is the opposite of what everyone else is doing something and you decide to do the opposite, that should be the big clue you're making a mistake.

[dabz]

Cathay will be the Atlas of asia.

[ToCatLady]

All of the above simply states that we have zero need for any 777 SO’s for the next 5+ years.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens there as they’ve already moved 10 locals/PR to the 320 from the 777 out of seniority. This clearly to appease IMMD.

The 747 is also short on SO’s but CAD are refusing to approve a quick conversion for 777 SOs.

Have a look at dispatch next time and you’ll notice that IMMD are also having a say on which crews are being re-activated and flying!

[Posterizing]

Numero Crunchero

I do have another take on this point, not sure about how true it may be as it involves some assumptions.

I was thinking about comparing the costs of leasing/financing a 777 that is just sitting, and the costs of paying the salaries of the respective crew compliment who are also just sitting. The assumption is that the costs would be very similar, or simlar enough that considering aircraft can always just be purchased back as they would just be sitting (assumption), and can be returned at a faster rate compared to hiring and training crew (assumption), added with the fact that dismissed crew/ new hires can decide to not join when the company demand picks up (they probably know their package is not as attractive as before), it may be the easier and more predictable route to cut aircraft rather than crew.

[turnandburn]

”If you look at the increase in the 747 fleet I suspect that was partially to mitigate the complaints of over work prior to covid, desperation to ensure maximum pilot numbers to ensure maximum utilisation of freighter a/c, and maybe some foresight that based 747 pilots might be leaving our company. So an increase in around 130 in Hong Kong would be offset by many leaving from bases. And there is much anecdotal evidence that many are happy to go to the 747 to get the type rating (and get current) before leaving for greener pastures over the next year or two.”

Your suspicions about the 747 are off the mark, The 747 crew were not overworked in regards to hours flown, simply the lack of hours compared to days away, hence the lower hour thresholds in pay. Since the end of pax flights a continual departure of crew through age and finally fed up with it. Current
multiple 747 bases closed with predominantly CNs going. More 747 captains reach retirement next year. There was no foresight about based pilots leaving, the majority were staying, unless you missed it the company implemented base closure.
So I will reiterate if you push 60-80 CNs out then you replace, so since the inefficient 777 is parked and there is no pax market for cx for the next 3-5 years, 777 pilots will be transferred permanently.If many are unable to grasp the global market has changed for several years to come, your in the wrong business. They have just cancelled A321 courses and reallocated DEFO to A350, so the full Directors meeting on 8-8-2021 slid by with little comment and the latest operating plan is out, however it hasn’t trickled down to the Chief pilot level yet as they aren’t high enough on the food chain to know yet. Another example of the inept historical silo management that permeates year after year with endless cluster f___s. However I digress they are probably fully occupied with the event in Beijing and the political fallout that might bring. Monday will be busy.

[Numero Crunchero]

v for vendetta
I would argue that MOST airlines have not right sized. BA ended up making redundant I think about 30-50 out of how many pilots? (3000+?)
QF ended up getting enough voluntary redundancies and LWOP takers to not let go of any. Yes they have also massively reduced their wage bill but point is minimal reduction in manpower
Delta - similar - voluntary early retirements/redundancies were enough - then they became short of pilots based on the plan a few months ago - I am sure Delta (covid) has dented Delta's (airline) plans.
On the other side - yes EK and QR (and others) have downsized iaw manning expectations.

As you point out- CX just cannot train enough fast enough. Assuming no one leaves before RA55/65 it will take 4-5 years to recover full manning. And that assumption is a very poor one clearly - I have never seen morale so low - and that is saying a lot after 94/99/49ers/ etc etc. We are going to lose a lot of pilots before their RA. So yes I think we are going to be short of pilots for god knows how long. Of course that will be hidden by a lesser schedule - maybe disposing of some a/c - that sort of thing.

Cat Lady
On what basis do you say no need for 777 SOs for next 5 years? If we dont massively shrink the airline we will need 600+ commands - close to a 1000 upgrades to FO(and DEFOs) and SO time should reduce towards 2-3 years.

Posterizing
Interesting thought. Problems I see - selling a/c in the middle of covid is the worst possible time. By the time you choose to buy it prices will have more than recovered for used a/c. Back of the fag packet calculation (and I am literally doing this as I type so apologies for any errors) - let's say a 777 was bought for $240m US - depreciated straight line for 24 years - so $10M US per year (leasing costs would be similar but we own most of our 777s). Utilisation was around 16 hrs per day pre 2019(protests)- assuming 4 crew per hour (all LRO or ULRO) and assuming crew average 700hrs per year( as they did a few years ago) we get - 365*16/700 = 8.3 crews or 34 pilots. Say 9 CNs, 9 SOs and 16 FOs. On Hong Kong salaries/HKPA/PF that would be around $38M HKD per year - so less than $5m USD. So mathematically speaking, cheaper to keep the crew NOT working and living in HK than selling the a/c and letting the pilots go. And obviously I have ignored redundancies/training and recruitment costs to replace the crew.

turnandburn
I should have been clearer. No they were not 'hours limited' over worked. They were G day limited - time away from home excessive etc. That was the message made loud and clear to the GC/negotiation reps/JRC etc over the years. So CX took advantage and ramped up the numbers. Now - if there were too many pilots then I wouldn't keep hearing about how many guys/gals are doubling their salaries because they are flying over 70hrs per month.
And CX knew that cargo was the only revenue source so they ramped up numbers of pilots to ensure they were airframe limited, not aircrew limited.
And in terms of bases closing - you really believe they didn't know a year ago that bases would be closed? The only thing they wouldn't have known was how many would come off the base and back to HK. I think for Oz base it is like 30 returning vs 150 that were on the base?

Anyway - all fun stuff predicting the future with the state of flux we live in;-)

[Threethirty]

Numero, not quite correct, BA put 250 pilots in the PRP (priority return pool)

[turnandburn]

NC,

Your statements just prove your not on the 747, most crews are certainly not doing 70+ hours, a few are but certainly not the majority. At no time I stated I believed they they made the decision to close bases recently, Probably more like the 49ers planning which was planned 2 years prior, and that is a statement by a (sw)manager in a HKU paper available online for a dissertation on employment practises.They had to go through the legal motions one step at a time. Ironically once complete lots of staff who manage based staff won’t be needed. Cannibalism at its best. It most likely stretches back to the previous GMAs beginnings, the current one just yielding the sword.

More likely crewing is to replace the departures and reduce salaries as the monthly hours are being paired back in general even as one of the cargo peaks arrives. With the new min pay its better to be able to deal with the waves and troughs of freight. Once all the staff cuts are done and a good portion of conversions completed some new monthly hour targets may be popped in on a good friday at 6pm.

Enjoy your quarantine and bus looping.

[VforVENDETTA]

Dear Numero,

BA. As you see below in the Reuters piece, BA did a very different thing than cathay. They sat down, talked, negotiated with the pilots union before announcing a "temporary" 20% paycut. And the number of jobs cut were 200, not 30-50. Cathay arbitrarily voided the contract and cut everyone's pay and benefits by 50%... PERMANENTLY.

-----(Reuters) - British Airways pilots have accepted a deal that will temporarily cut pay by 20% and eliminate more than 200 jobs, the pilots' union said on Friday.

"The deal means that there will be temporary 20% pay cuts reducing to 8% over two years and towards zero over the longer term", British Airline Pilots Association said in a statement.

"Regrettably, there will still be some compulsory redundancies which are currently estimated to be 270 although that number will fall as mitigations take effect", the statement added.-----

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN24W327

Quantas. Qantas has had up to 20,000 people "stood down" for a long time now and they just announced another 2500 to be added to the number they have "stood down" now. Stood down means go home without pay until we need you again. In the US it's called lay off, others call it redundancy. Standdowns are not voluntary. Again, something very different than cathay has done. Pure manpower downsizing in fact. This article mentions it specifically as "thousands of pilots and cabin crew". I couldn't find the actual numbers. But I don't know where you got the information you put on here saying "QF ended up getting enough voluntary redundancies and LWOP takers to not let go of any. Yes they have also massively reduced their wage bill but point is minimal reduction in manpower"

The following article is from Barron's on Qantas. They do a very good job of aviation business coverage.

Exerpt from the article link below:

" In addition to thousands of pilots and cabin crew being stood down or made redundant in 2020, Qantas recently announced 2,500 more would be stood down in response to the latest outbreak."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/news/australia-s-qantas-posts-fresh-losses-after-diabolical-year-01629936609

Delta. The US airlines' business situation was a hiccup compared to cathay's, quantas or BA's choking. The flying came back in a much shorter time and for a while now the airports are jammed, flights are full, and they've been hiring pilots at full speed at places that didn't cut much flying or staff (using the massive bailout cash government gave them to cover losses). Yes some US airlines offered generous early retirement packages (that make cathay's offers laughable) and yes a couple of them like American and delta over-did it as a result, are severly undermanned now and in full speed hiring mode. 1200 or more a year. So again, the air travel business in the US was not as badly affected as it has been elsewhere. Even if they had done lay offs, they would have called them all back a long time ago.

Also yes disposing aircraft which aren't able to be utilized same as any other asset not able to be utilized and is costing money in lease payments, upkeep and maintenance etc is a big part of downsizing. BUT, it takes a lot more time to get rid of those assets compared to getting rid of human assets. Unfortunately the law appears to protect the business interests of the lessers of those aircraft more the the livelihoods of the human assets. Not so easy to get out of most of those leases so easily or quickly without bankruptcy intervention. Cathay couldn't just announce "give us a 50% discount on all these aircraft or we fire them in 2 weeks" like they did to their pilot people. That is the difference. Which makes getting rid of aircraft not a quick solution to stopping cash bleed. Thats why it isn't done in appreciable numbers, yet. Ideally of course ALL assets should be cut according to the current and short term need projections. Even moving to a smaller headquarters building IF projections show it will make a big enough impact on long term survival of the business.

Dear all:

It takes much more than numbers to understand and predict ANYTHING, but especially in the airline business. This is why an airline can't be run properly by non-airline managers otherwise known as accountants. Just like how you say something can have a very different impact, how you do something can also have very different impacts. In how the people you're saying it to or doing it to perceive it. Doing so in the manner cathay has done so utterly crudely (and is continuing to make worse every day by coming up with new ways to drain blood out of it's pilots) has taken away any employer credibility they might have had prior to this. They've cut their own throat just because they could. Can an accountant calculate how much money it costs to have employees with such low morale come to work every day? I've seen first hand in 7 different airlines and 30 years how good morale brings millions in money savings and bad morale costs millions. (Nevermind the hull loss or two in cathay's future) It will never be tracable on paper. But each of us who know how the job is done can easily see it in real-time day to day operations. But the board of directors and all their minion accountant managers have no idea, unless they've spent their career in "airline management" AND have proven to be from the small percentage of management experts who can succeed in airline management. Cathay has exactly zero number of this type individual within it.

What works and what fails has already been proven through many downturns and uptands for decades. It's the stupid who insist on learning from their own mistakes and not from other people's mistakes. Thinking you're smarter than others is a good sign you're the stupid one.

[flapsupdown]

turnandburn

What is the reason for the change from A321 to A350?

[Progress Wanchai]

NC,

The level of debate you raise this forum to is commendable and refreshing. Logic is hard to argue against, but argue I will. Your argument of what management may do moving forward is based on what you’d do, not based on how the company has acted historically.

Would you have;

Formed ASL?
Sacked 49 pilots for no reason then told the world why you sacked them?
Run an illegal Paris base then amateurishly shut it down?
Hired Adelaide instructors under an agreement then reneged after they’d done all the hard work?
Lost billions on fuel hedging, hold a press conference to inform investors in the future you’d hedge less and purchase stop loss insurance, then within years hedge more with no stop loss?
Participated in an illegal freight cartel?
Been in an industrial dispute for years with the unions leading to the training ban over what was essentially an argument over one flight to London being 3 crew or 4 crew?
Used a downturn to opportunistically tear up legacy contracts? (In fact on these very forums 12 months ago you argued management would tinker with amendable policies such as ARAPA rather than enforce contractual changes.)
Close all the bases within 2 years of the long awaited basings review being completed by the previous GMA and current DFO concluding that basings were an integral and vital part of the company’s future?

This list could go for pages. The point being, when is the last time management have acted as you’d have acted? It’s like being married to a completely irrational partner for 30 years then assuming tomorrow he/she will act rationally because that’s how you’d act.
That in itself is completely irrational.

All companies inevitably collapse, it’s just a matter of when. Are we witnessing a temporary downturn, a steady decline or a rapid collapse? A few years ago the HKAOA bought in an expert aviation consultant to look at the company’s past and present performance to predict how profitable the future would be. Needless to say he didn’t purchase any company shares as he left. This was pre-Covid. I suspect he’s still not buying.

[Numero Crunchero]

Vforvendetta (and three thirty)
sorry, one of my friends in BA has been laid off - I thought he said it was less than 50. I stand corrected.
I am well aware what happened in Qantas - my point is - they didn't let them go. As I said, they lowered their salary bills in other ways. EK let pilots go - and may struggle to get them all back.

The point i am trying to make is - CX is going to need as many pilots as it can keep - and I believe they know that.

Turnandburn
No I haven't flown the 744 for many years - Ironically I was always hitting CAD hour limits on it back then.
I dont have current fleet average figures- but yeah I guess all those I am speaking to that are doing 60-90 hours might just be in a minority. But given the so-called over manning of the fleet, you would expect the average hours to be 20-30% LESS than they were precovid. Using some old data I have from precovid I get average block hours being 50 in some years and as high as 67 in others. So if the fleet is overmanned by 20-30% I would expect the average hours to be as low as 35 and as high as 54.

I dont understand why you think pilots on the 747 doing minimum hours NOW in this pre xmas peak is a good thing? surely this is the time all the 747 pilots should be working the hardest then having them back to lower block hours when freight demand is lower?

Numbers (mostly) don't lie - and numbers can convince. (caveat to the famous "lies, damned lies and statistics")

First thing - the more hours we do the cheaper we get. There are fixed costs - the more we work the lower the average fixed cost per hour becomes. So it is in the airlines interest for us all to be working towards 900hours - not the minimum (35 -747 etc).

Second thing - it was numbers that got rid of 3 man flying to Europe - numbers showed that it was MORE expensive than 4 man when using COS08 rules. I haven't redone the numbers for COS18 but I suspect it will be close to a wash. Using COS08 costings, the only flight that made financial sense to be 3 man was EUR based crew flights to/from HK. AFAIK that was the only one operating precovid (LHR-HKG-LHR 3man)

Third thing - yes ego gets in the way of some managers/directors making decisions - but ultimately it will be numbers that drive the majority of board decisions. They dont care about morale - they care what their training bill will be -and that depends on how many leave. The 49ers can be viewed as their way of saying "we are the boss, you will take what we offer you". Likewise, ASL was seen as a cost reduction. Yes in 2007 negs we managed to show/convince them that, financially speaking, it was costing them more. Funny thing - they reintegrated ASL after that - just a coincidence I guess if they are NOT driven by numbers.

Fourth thing - did you ever wonder why they were prepared to offer more in pay/hkpa in 2016 than in 2018? I mean - by the end of 2015, before negotiations even started in 2016, they knew they were sitting on over 30B worth of impending losses from their fuel speculation episode. And yet they offered payrises/HKPA increases?
Again - numbers - because in 2015-16 our margins were better - in 2018 they had deteriorated so less was offered. I am not talking about Fuel - those losses were already known - looking forward they believed we had lower margins so they offered less.

I could go on - my point is - they are driven by $$$ - not emotion (most of the time - one of many exceptions was HOW they treated the 49ers after they were terminated - it got personal!)

Prove to them that 2 SO ops to Europe are causing higher costs and they will stop it. I can't - I KNOW I am more tired - but tired is not an item on a balance sheet or P&L.

Progress Wanchai
From 'their' point of view - do you think they really set up a PAR base KNOWING it was illegal? More like- they were understaffed in basings office and did not do due diligence and only found out over time.
49ers- small cost to break the will of the pilots - PRE 49ers - over 95% membership and over 90% voting for LIA(limited industrial action) vs POST 49ers - no payrises from 2002-2007 (thanks to 49ers/ 9-11) and AOA membership falling to 50%. I suspect the company thinks the 49er episode was a bargain in terms of the control they achieved/savings on static pay.

ASL - saved them money as far as they were concerned.

The training ban had NO effect - I did the numbers on our training during TA18 negotiations - 2015 was the last year we were at full training capacity. After the TB was introduced they shifted a few 330s over to KA and due to airline planning reductions in growth forecasts, the trainers were running under 90% in 2016 then down to I think it was 50% in 2019. And I mean what percentage of the trainers total flying was training - so the lesser number of trainers we had in 2019 were, on average, doing half training half line flying. So what did it achieve? Well the chairman that introduced it, who BTW was KNOCKED back from training before he became chairman, got to look very industrial - he did enjoy his trump like grandstanding.

It is NOT personal unless you make it so.

CX is running a business - 99% of the time they dont give a s@#t about any single one of us. They are not picking on you or me - they are just doing what they do!
Some people think there is some machiavellian plan that is being rolled out over years/decades. I dont think so. They have too much turnover on 3rd/9th floors for that. And I have seen too many changes and backflips - I mean, look at our rostering rules - there are so many similarities to the 1994 rules which ultimately failed. Reinventing the 4 sided wheel!

Anyway - if you think it is personal and that they are out to get you - then ok - enjoy the victimisation feeling.

They are just a company - and I am just an employee. One day I will leave - either resign/retire/be fired - in the meantime I refuse to feel like a victim - I am here of my own free will. No one is forcing me to come to work. And whilst the office is new and shiny, the crew I fly with are competent and good fun, I will keep flying.

PS whilst I can 'justify' in financial terms what is done - that doesn't mean I agree with it actually being carried out or how it is carried out. That is why I have spent close to two decades in GCs/negs etc fighting - trying to make things fairer. But to negotiate you need to understand what the other side is thinking.

Anyway thanks for the thought provoking posts guys/gals.

[Hugo Peroni the IV]

when is the last time management have acted as you’d have acted?

A serious question of a ban breaking training Captain? Priceless.

[Hotoffthepress]

flapsupdown

If this is to be the case, wouldn't it make more sense to recoup more of the A330 Pilots from KA to minimise CCQ costs for the A350? Rather than transfer an already small group of pilots across from the A321 when clearly the narrow body fleet is being marketed to lead the recovery.

Nearly all the A330 Pilots in KA transferred from the A320, having both ratings and sufficient hours on both.

[carolknows]

NC
Always loved reading from you.
You said CX gonna need all the pilots it has now, how will they retain them moving forward?

[S22]

They are recruiting ex 330 and 320 guys from KA. They seem to be working their way through them quite quickly. Several have passed the interview last month.

[turnandburn]

NC you continue to respond by either misinterpreting what I write, or write something that I never wrote. I never said it was a good think crew doing less hours, they just are as more crew arrive on the fleet and your A350 and 777s fly more freight sectors. The crewing of the 747 pax fleet in no way resembles how the freight operation is crewed.
The 35-55 is more inline with what many crew are being rostered due ever increasing pxing at 0.25, even as we approach one of the freighter peaks.
The delays in loading in china and restrictions in India impact on the usability of the 747. It takes 3-5 hours to load in china, that just blows to many daily hours. Unable to do multi sector India patterns has cut into that part of the operation.
The flying hours were never balanced among based or hk crew. Moot point now, however rosters are widely different due to the slippery few who are constantly in contact with cc. On a small fleet its easily noticed in rosters where some are stacked, particularly in the current climate. Unfortunately the corruption and favouritism is endemic at cx and is unlikely to be ever removed, as cx use it as an advantage.
The jep system will never realise its true potential because they won’t utilise the other modules. The continual manual interface pairs back savings dramatically, plus those implementing it in reality loose there jobs if they do make it efficient as the users should be the crew controllers as we should just release and bid flights. A company shouldn’t care who crews it as ling as its crewed at reasonable cost.

Changes to A321 courses, my opinion, still no passengers, the target was back to 30% by xmas, thats 30,000 pax a day. Unlikely with gov announcing limit of 2000 per day from mainland for all modes of transport and carriers.
If you only got 20 pax on a plane, might as well try carry freight, A350 can drag. 50 ton in ULDs that don’t need to be repacked unlike a 321.
Making money is about efficiencies.
i am inclined to believe cx is still 50/50 chance of surviving as it existed before. Diverging away from its core business typical of companies scrambling for revenue. Currently cx operating as a charter freight company.
its 4am back to sleep.

[controlledrest]

Can anyone tell me the logic of forcing the guys off the closing bases to HKG, then not retraining them and at the same time pleading for more volunteers for Extended Duty Periods and Closed Loop Flying?

Just typical CX incompetence due silos and procedure following office staff?

[Progress Wanchai]

Oh NC, how I wish I’ve been the victim of a vindictive management for the past 30 years. I’d certainly sleep easier. But like you I don’t believe it for a second. I believe we’ve simply had ring side seats as witnesses to 30 years of incompetence. How did Bloomberg refer to this company just a few years ago? The world’s worst performing airline? You don’t get an international reputation like that because of spiteful, vindictive behaviour. It takes so much more.

I didn’t ask you to justify their past 3 decades of decisions. I asked you if they were the decisions you’d have made if you were in their shoes. If that answer is yes then your crystal ball is worthy of respect. Yet not 12 months ago I was arguing on these forums that COS18 was coming to a letter box near you yet your prediction was they would simply tinker with amendable company policies. Safe to say we aren’t reading the tea leaves the same way.

Have they learnt from their history of incompetence? Just have a look at the recent FOP management changes. The heavily advertised vacancies followed by the cutting of dead wood in preference to outside green shoots. (sarcasm alert for those that can’t interpret written text without emojis).

[bored]

Wrong. Did a Toronto a few weeks ago, about 100 transit from the mainland.

[turnandburn]

And if you actually read some data or payed attention to who you actually carried they were about 90% mainland students who returned to north America, not the previous average traveller and it was a surge for a couple of weeks that was even said during teams meeting by GMLO.
it doesn’t sustain an airline.

[bored]

OK, makes sense.....you must be somewhat engaged. I don't pay attention anymore, you're right. No point when life beyond next year is elsewhere! #movebeyond

[turnandburn]

Your on the money move beyond, staying here is major roll of the dice,

[Dilbert68]

I don't think that staying here is even an option, most of us are going backwards on POS 18. I came here because the remuneration was enough incentive to leave my home country. Since this is no longer the case, I am leaving. Everyone I fly with feels the same way and are actively making plans for an exit. You will say that this is all talk and not many will leave but this time I believe that you are wrong.
Maybe I am way off base, time will tell but I believe the resignations will accelerate greatly in the coming months, 100+ per month as a guess.
It's not just the company, it's seeing the rest of the world living with covid in a less draconian way than we are subjected to. Not being treated like a prisoner and lab specimen if you are unfortunate enough to contract this very contagious virus.

[Firefly47]

So according to Dilbert we will lose 1/3 of the pilots in the next year due to resignations, yes people are leaving but 100+ per month is beyond a joke.

[controlledrest]

A truck load of sim instructors are about to be shafted by CX so they plan to flip the bird. After the Olympics and the opening of borders CX will struggle to keep up. Bound to 'right size' the airline by ditching old Tripples and pretending manning levels are fine and pretending management did a good job and deserve their bonuses.

[Starbear]

you could well be correct but very recent “reaching out” to some SI’s to extend/expand current contracts would appear to be in conflict unless of course your longer term predictions may well be spot on.

[noboloco]

Dilbert68

so when are you leaving? Why have you not resigned yet? People like you have been saying they are leaving for years. The only time it actually happens is when you reach retirement age. Maybe you leave a year early. “That’ll show them”. POS18 is still above market rates elsewhere in the world so doubt your 100+ a month will ever eventuate.

[CXDOG]

Quote: “POS18 is still above market rates elsewhere in the world so doubt your 100+ a month will ever eventuate.”

However the cost of living in HK is still above market rates elsewhere in the world. So what’s your point?

[Near Miss]

Another idiot who simply takes HKD and converts it to GBP, EUR, CAD, USD, AUD, etc. It's a completely useless comparison. Why? Because you don't live in those countries! You're only considering income, but you're forgetting the other part, expenses.

[Sam Ting Wong]

So you did resign, Near Miss?

[volare_737]

CXDOG

Its not just about money . I am back home now for the last 6 months and having the quality of life I have here makes it not a very difficult decision of what to do !

[Near Miss]

Sam Ting Wong

Just waiting for a start date.

[quadspeed]

It was ALWAYS about the money. It was enough to do without seasons, fresh air, clean water, forests, lakes, mountains and what most would consider a real life.

Not that we couldn't mitigate that to a certain degree through vacations, basings or commuting.

But honestly, what is left now?

[noboloco]

Near Miss

stop kidding yourself! You pay only 15% tax on your income. The tax difference alone more than offsets living costs and pays for your housing! Try living in Australia and losing 45% of your income to the tax man. All other expenses are a lot cheaper than the western world. It’s time to stop biting the hand that feeds you and be grateful that you have kept your job through the pandemic and still getting paid. Qantas pilots would love to be in your shoes right now. If elsewhere was better you would of already left.

[dabz]

All other expenses are a lot cheaper than the western world.

That's not correct.

[KABOY]

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=South+Africa&country2=Hong+Kong&city1=Johannesburg&city2=Hong+Kong&tracking=getDispatchComparison

[noboloco]

funny how you had to choose Johannesburg for the comparison. Yes that would be a lovely place to live with your family right? Have to sleep with a loaded gun in your bed to protect yourself. Feel free to move there if it is so peachy! Oh wait all the Saffas are fleeing that country...

[Brown Nose]

noboloco

well there’s an idiot that deserved cos18.

revel in it loser!

[noboloco]

Brown Nose

Better than being spineless and just moaning on pprune about the company with empty threats of leaving without actually doing so. Cowards, hoping for others to take the leap off the cliff rather than jumping yourself. I for one appreciate still having a job and realising how good we actually have it compared to the rest of the world. If you are so resentful against the company then do your mental health, your family and rest of us some good and just leave. Although no other airline would hire a cx pilot because of what princesses you are. Some of you are well overdue for a wakeup call like the KA guys and gals who would love to have their job back. Bet none of them will moan about the company again.

[RAT Management]

Give it time.... Give, it, time! Even the most grateful will eventually turn. It's just a matter of time.

[Flying Clog]

My Dragonair mates are mostly relieved they got pushed out of HKG - it's a toxic dump, and most are happy to be shot of the place. Even leaving the industry altogether and pursuing other opportunities outside aviation is preferable to putting up with this madness.

So you're welcome to the place noboloco. Good luck to you

[Flying Clog]

I'm fairly convinced Cathay will be gone in 1-2 years. The current situation is simply not sustainable. Perhaps not by their own complete ineptitude and idiocy, which they've been practicing really really hard on for decades, but more pushed off the edge by the HKG health authority and a final gentle push by Beijing.

Either way, you're mentally deranged if you think it's a good idea staying here, the place is well and truly :mad:!

It used to be worth it, for the money, to operate as a rather well paid whore and get rich in 10-20 years, spread your ass cheeks, commute to a 'normal' country with good quality of life and family (normallity), which many of us did and of course struggle to do now. It's all about the work/life balance. Which is non-existent now.

But now we can walk away with a million euros or so cash in the bank from property and pension/P fund. I'm personally walking away from HKG with 1.5 million euros in cold hard cash from my flat and the P fund. Good :mad:!

CX has conspired to put a stop to the 'good deal' to attract foreign talent, and good luck to them. There is no local market for cheap pilots in Hong Kong, but maybe they can scrounge a few 3rd world pilots with fake logbooks to paper over the cracks until they crash an airplane and have a bit of a wake up call. Good luck to Cathay in your new endeavour.

Meanwhile, there are plenty of jobs around for current 747 pilots.

I, for one, am well and truly out of this toxic dystopian dump! Bye!

I can't wait!

[noboloco]

so when are you leaving? Why are you still even here? Thought you were off to drive a lorry in the UK. Posts from yours about your 22,000 euro/month salary from back in 2016 and you stating how you wouldn’t get out of bed for anything less. Yet here you still are... you for one are full of :mad:

[Brown Nose]

I left some time ago. Because I am not a loser like you and refused to devalue myself. I moved on to a better life than the old B scale.

I guess if you are a 200hour hero, you actually have no worth to justifying charging for it. COS18 is probably all you are worth.

[controlledrest]

noboloco

The guys I know at Qantas, Air NZ, Emirates and a couple of USA carriers are all pleased to be where they are. Some have been stood down, but will return to work on previous conditions, others are working as hard as they ever have and are been paid at pre-covid levels.

The hand that feeds me has decided to feed me 40% less rather than follow the contract and cut as required in accordance with LIFO.

I suspect you are an inexperienced pilot who thinks they are hot stuff, joined on POS18, don't have a partner and kids and are pleased the company didn't chop you. Your comments are so far removed from the reality most CX pilots face I hope you are just a management troll.

[noboloco]

again if it is so bad hurry up and leave. You deserve to have your contract deteriorated because you have no spine to stand up for yourself and rather just winge on pprune about it than taking action. Do you think management care about your anonymous rants on here? Go find that unicorn job that pays or treats you better.

[noboloco]

if you want a better life balance maybe you are in the wrong career. I’ve seen the rosters of other airlines like EK, QF and ANZ and what we have in cx is way better in terms of days off, annual leave, ability to proffer or swap flights etc.

I think some of you are confusing pandemic control measures as if it is some sort of draconian rule by Cathay. Pilots worldwide are suffering from the same sort of isolation requirements imposed by the local governments. But cx pilots are too self centred to realise that.

[Oasis]

noboloco

why are you in a cx pilot forum, calling cx pilots self-centred, when you obviously have some sort of problem with cx pilots.

i hope you feel all better now, let it all out, you know?

Doesn’t qf make 6 week or two month rosters? That is pretty good for planning you life.
and that while the clowns over here can’t even come up with a roster a week before it is supposed to start.

[Flying Clog]

Nob is clearly a management troll.

'pilots worldwide are suffering from the same sort of isolation..' - load of crap! It's pretty much just CX and a handful of Asian airlines.

[Fac6]

Cathay. Pilots worldwide are suffering from the same sort of isolation requirements imposed by the local governments. But cx pilots are too self centred to realise that.

Absolute RUBBISH!

[CovidRefugee]

I'm sure many on here would like to wish Noboloco all the best for his upcoming visa renewal.

[noboloco]

Not an issue because I already have PR

[Sam Ting Wong]

Fake News

So just to get this straight. You are saying "greed is a typical HK mentality", which is already preposterous enough by itself of course, but then this comes out of the mouth of someone WHO MOVED ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO LIVE IN HK FOR THE MONEY ( AND ONLY FOR THE MONEY).

You are really funny.

[Oddball77]

Exactly, the only reason why expats came to HK was for the money only. Let's not have any illusions about that one. The only people who will join CX in the future on COS18 are Saffers, locals and low timers.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Interesting. So it's not the local culture ( greedy, your words),nor the money.

I know! Is it the training department? The climate maybe? No, wait, I got it... it's the quick command, right? 😂

[controlledrest]

Oddball77

Been true for a while now. It used to be the $. POS18 was OK for a misfits and the low timers.

Get current, get out. This will not last forever. There will be a boom.

[S22]

Fake News

Me neither I found the UK depressing. I actually like living here. It’s a good place to travel from (once covid gets fixed), it’s safe, the food is good as is the weather and I like working with the local guys n gals.

[ThrustAssymComp]

noboloco

how to get pr?

[SW1]

spend7 years in Hong Kong. Might be difficult at the moment 😕

[Bekol delay]

Maybe not, I hear 7 years might be the new required quarantine time.

[Oasis]

Thank you for that chuckle, I needed it..

[ThrustAssymComp]

Yeet, my longest stay was 29 hours layover.

[deja vu]

A third rate city with a third rate airline with third rate pilots, what could possibly go wrong.

[deja vu]

Oddball77

Actually yeah, expats came to Hong Kong because of the money but also the lifestyle. We had it all, mega houses in Sai Kung, boats in Hebe haven, Skiiing holidays in Canada or Europe all expenses paid, kids in the best boarding schools in the world free of charge of course, travel funds, quick commands, top class hotels for overnights, Aviation Club for debriefings, pretty much a free pass on the streets, got to fly with like minded aviation enthusiastic professionals, laughs, we had a lot. Long gone, enjoy.

[mngmt mole]

It is difficult to imagine an airline that has fallen so far from what it once was. The bottom has not been reached yet (hull loss), but sadly I have no doubt that day is coming as well. All the above represented what was once the best career in aviation. The Swires benefited from the reputational accolades that were a result of a highly motivated and dedicated workforce. They have squandered that, along with the opportunity to have remained one of the worlds top airlines. Only the name is the same, but it is a shell of what it once was.

[Flying Clog]

What deja vu and the mole said. Couldn't agree more.

Cathay is but a mere stinky husk of it's former self, and best avoided, lest you catch something from it. It's toxic. Best left to rot in it's festering hole and move on in my humble opinion.

[BabyYoda]

From the DFO: "over the past 24 months we have shown who we are"
They certainly have...

[smogluver]

That DFO update made me want to puke

[Bangaluru]

BabyYoda

Post of the month. Beautifully put.

[Jnr380]

“It takes more intelligence to build than to burn”. The DFO et al, are starting large scale forest fires

[Oasis]

Are they going to get rid of the new entries on the bottom now, since the 'deal' with immigration is now not being honored?

[Terrain Terrain]

What makes you think it isn’t? The ‘deal’ you hung your hopes on was never more than a stay of execution to keep planes flying in the short term. The group has been given sufficient time to get their :mad: into a pile so HKSAR immigration policy can return to normal.

Between renewal rejections, returning based-pilot rejections and resignations of pilots unwilling to stay for POS18 in return for at-will employment, they’re going to be scrambling for all the new entries they can find.

[deja vu]

Sam Ting Wong

Greed, well of course, goes without saying. I would have thought deceive, scrounge, mislead, cheat, dishonour and lie were just as appropriate.

[Starbear]

smogluver

That DFO makes me want to puke. There you go fixed that for you.

[VforVENDETTA]

http://ow.ly/Vdvu50G232q

[CXDOG]

The key message from that article is that the Middle East airlines are gearing up for more and more countries allowing free travel again.

Meanwhile in HK…

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1612531-20210928.htm?spTabChangeable=0

Expect increased tightening of arrival restrictions - both passenger and crew I’d say 🙄

[VforVENDETTA]

Nope. You missed the key message.

It's that they're restoring pay and benefits knowing otherwise they can't keep and attract pilots..

[ACMS]

Meanwhile Cx continue their ways…..

[EESDL]

Haven’t perused Fragrant Harbour for a while but this morning I was surprised to see that people are still flying in Honkers!
Just goes to show how much crap one will take!
this is not a jibe and you have my sympathy - what is happening in Honkers is tragic but - come on - the writing was on the wall 20-years ago.
God speed to you all and here is hoping you find a way.

[noboloco]

there is a way but no one wants to take it because the grass is far from greener. Instead they come on here to b:mad: and moan and hope they can pressure enough others leave (apart from actually leaving themselves of course) so that their conditions will magically improve. Then there’s the bunch that pretend they have left cx yet still come on here daily to complain, why would anyone invest all that emotional energy if they have actually left.

[Piet Lood]

Fair question Nobolco and I can only speak for myself.
Even living abroad I still follow the news of my home country.
Same here: still interested and at times even fascinated by the happenings in my beloved city of HKG.
That and to annoy the crap out of STW of course.

[Dragon_Delight]

Can we start hiring keen aviators instead of instagram social media addicts?

Would like to see CX hiring those KA SOs instead of fresh out of the box graduate cadets. At least they know how to fly a plane.

[Fly747]

Their priority is exKA FOs (or any FO) who have been offered or have a job with GBA.

[S22]

Theyre really dragging their feet over it. I know several who have passed selection and it’s all gone quiet.

[JMock]

several started yesterday

[Fliegenmong]

Oh indeed how times change...I Remember CX as something like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtAcYrGQLvY

[dabz]

The real travellers way hey... how disconnected that advertisement is from todays 2021 CX

[S22]

I often thought it went downhill with the demise of the old color scheme. Any airport it stood out. It might not have been to everyone’s taste but what followed was bland.

[Backupnav]

Pretty much all legacy airlines went downhill, blame it on the development of low cost carriers rather than a mere change in paint scheme.

[agent.007]

Can we start hiring keen aviators instead of instagram social media addicts?

Would like to see CX hiring those KA SOs instead of fresh out of the box graduate cadets. At least they know how to fly a plane.

Low hour pilots and newly graduated cadet may not differ much in the Company perspective and shall be treated as the same pool.