New Second Officers on board?

[CX163]

Following Cortisol's Capt - JFO post, rumours out today that (newly hired) SO waiting for their start date.
No local PRs heard anything yet from recruitment as far as I know.

Did anyone hear anything? What's your guess?

Safe flight to those flying. Goodluck and all the best to those waiting. Stay safe to everyone!!

[MENELAUS]

If we could just have the intelligible version that would be great. !

[skychief1994]

I emailed them and was told to get in touch with them at the start of 2022. But may have to interview again.

[skychief1994]

Well passing the interview again isn't too bad. The real question is if I would want to join them now.

[Rie]

I'm not even going to get started on the muppet above as he is a professional time waster.

You really need to keep ideas to yourself with prospective employers. Easy enough to work out who you are from your history. The guys in the recruitment department love checking this place and enjoy a yarn about their findings. Yes we moan about the job here but the difference is that we have been mostly here and loyal to the company for a while now.

Ok rant over, taking the ferry to DB for a coffee.

[Flying Clog]

Would it even be possible NOT to pass the interview?

If you're stupid enough to accept this job on COS18 living in Hong Kong, accept the soul destroying dreadful career that cx has on offer, the cathay recruiters will love you to bits. Easy peasy lemon squeazy.

You'll regret it in a few years, and you've been warned, but it won't stop people.

[Jnr380]

When COS08 local was considered a stepping stone by a lot of pilots who came in, got a type rating, converted it to an EASA, FAA, CASA licence and then went home, I can just imagine what POS18 would be like.

I know senior management have aired their concern with the Directors about the amount of people leaving and the Directors couldn’t care less.

Then when FOP exceeds its budget for the year, they’ll blame the “highly paid” pilots and request further pay cuts all because they didn’t listen to their senior managers.

[Curry Lamb]

Have HK PR or HK passport? No? Bye bye then :ugh:

[skychief1994]

I am a HK PR.

I wish I was USA PR. Could have applied to all sorts of flying jobs.

[Fly747]

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/576x1024/8e7cf9cb_c7ae_41f0_a8e1_96ca4e97838e_0937a2e8d13de62127855b3 245be4abc178df727.jpeg

[MCDU2]

https://www.overseasmanpower.com/single-post/2019/03/01/Avoid-the-EB2-National-Interest-Waiver

[Oddball77]

This is a scam.

[dabz]

So is POS18 at CX.

[skychief1994]

If the rumors of people leaving CX are true, how can they expect to maintain any flying schedule when HK eventually opens up?

[Jnr380]

That will be a problem for the next DFO/Director not the current ones so they don’t care.

[skychief1994]

Yeah. What's more is that Australia is still closed so they can't send people to FTA.

[RAT Management]

As usual CX will come out smelling like a rose... There are always people willing to come. The govt will make a special deal. All captain's will be appointed trainers. It's too easy for them to solve problems.

[Jnr380]

By the time that happens CX will not have any captains. The offer of a commuting/reverse roster by other major carriers will now be too enticing to give up.

[SaulGoodman]

Jnr380

which major carriers would that be?

[Jnr380]

Emirates**
Various Chinese Carriers
Vietnam Airlines
Korean Airlines
ANA
Fiji Airways

** No commuting roster but if you do the maths, it’s better than POS 18

[RAT Management]

Well, by the time these mobs start hiring, you will be that busy with CX you won't have any time off to go to the interview. You won't have any leave either because cx have burnt all that ready for the big surge. Very few will leave. You will see. One thing for sure is the whinging will continue.

[Jnr380]

if there is will, there is a way!

[SaulGoodman]

I’m not say the grass is greener in HKG but I can honestly say that the grass is fake in DXB! If/when EK hires I wish you all the best but don’t expect a huge improvement. I would only go “home”. None of your list entices me

[Jnr380]

it’s not whether it entices you or not, it’s the different options available.
Some are better than CX some are Worse.

[skychief1994]

A captain whom I spoke with, who shall remain nameless, says that things will change in a few months and Cathay will be hiring again.

[Oasis]

Did he also give you stock market advice?

[KABOY]

They are hiring the unemployed locals now, as they are the easy ones to scoop up.

The question remains however, will they plug the hole within this pool over the resignation rate, then entice foreigners/locals when the time comes. COS18, and the push to assimilate HK with the motherland might see immigration place a new focus on where the talent pool will come from.

Time to brush up on the mandarin.

[skychief1994]

I think they are prioritizing people who finished the course in Australia and didn't get a start date. Wonder when they will look at us in the holding pool who are also locals?

[Becky330]

Why would cx want to hire more SOs when they already have 500-600 of them, most of whom are long overdue for an upgrade as they are getting shafted by newly hired DEFOs.

Fact of the matter is, there isn't enough training resource/sectors to upgrade SOs anytime soon as they desperately try to recover from the pandemic and get people current again. DEFOs only need 4-12 sectors LFUS, while SOs need 60. The big pool of experienced, rated guys is what is going to fill the (small) void when people leave cx in the near future.

Personally, if I were a fresh cadet graduate or SO with no upgrade course in sight, I would be looking to go to Vietnam or Myanmar or anywhere that I can build some real hours and skills. Come back and apply for DEFO when I have 1500-2000 hours. I'd be far better off compared to my peers.

[Oddball77]

You mean go to Vietnam, pay Vietjet or VNA 50k-90K USD for a A320 rating and work for free?

[nicoli]

It’s not free ! It’s 500$ / month :oh:

[Rie]

Becky330

Long overdue for an upgrade? No, they are not overdue. They do not automatically qualify to be a JFO they have to earn it when the time comes and they can qualify. If that takes another 5 years then so be it. I know there is one rather fresh JFO complaining about not being allowed to go directly to FO pay. Entitled iCadets...

As for VN etc... Good luck, please tell me how you will do that? Do you know how applications from some of those companies are viewed by most airlines? They go straight to the trash as it is clear who has done P2F.

[Avinthenews]

I’m not sure how a fresh JFO complaining makes sense the only ranks now are the following:

SO1
SO2
FO1
FO2
CN1/2/3/4

There is no JFO pay it’s FO1 till +2400-3000hrs dependent on fleet.

[Becky330]

That's just my own personal opinion. I would rather fly in a third world country for a few years than sit around as an SO for 10 years.

Sure it might not land me a job in the majors right away, but at least I would have picked up some skills and confidence to operate an aircraft.

[dabz]

If you're talking about skill then my turboprop days were much harder than any of these widebody flights long or short haul.
But I understand. You scare yourself then with little passengers on board so you don't have too and you've experienced it when you have a lot.

[Bokpiel]

skychief1994

Save yourself a lot of trouble and do not believe anything you hear until it actually happens.

[Oli777]

Cathay are hiring... its just not pilots, its janitors to help clean up the mess they created!

[Numero Crunchero]

Becky330
getting some real world experience before narrowing down to an airline job is a good idea IMHO.

In regards to CX numbers - we are MASSIVELY undermanned. Not for today - not for covid - but to get back to normal operations we will need over 1,000 pilots. Pick a date when we get back to normal flying - say 20August 2024 - I am sure some will find 3 years from now too optimistic as this is pprune ;-) Over that 3 years we will lose, just on RA55/65 another 300+ - and out of all the rest of the pilots, if even 10-20% of the most vocal 'leavers' actually leave, that will be another few hundred gone, mostly from the FO/CN ranks

The category we are most short of is captains - the category we are least short of is SOs. But to get Captains you need to upgrade FOs - which means SOs need to be upgraded to replace them. We will need over 500 commands to get back to full strength - then another few hundred to replace RA55/65 retirements plus any others that leave pre RA. So could be as much as 800 CNs NEEDED over next 3 years- but how many can the airline deliver when the most it has ever trained in a year was a little over 100. But I am sure senior management, airline planning and HR know all this and have a handle on it (sarcasm alert). I suspect the 3rd floor know- but why would non pilots ever listen to pilots about pilot stuff?

So we will be doing a :mad: ton of training for the next few years (barring Covid 22 or a comet or GFC mark 2)

[Rie]

Numero,
Getting a P2F Bus job at a 3rd world carrier isn't exactly experience. It's killing the profession. Maybe they would be better going off to Africa and flogging around a Van in Maun before jumping onto a Dash/ATR etc to get real world experience. Wait until this CV comes across a real carriers desk and they laugh at why you did 3 years at VietJet and only logged 500hrs (that cost you 50k). P2F isn't respected anywhere. Just ask most of the British Ex-Lion Air guys who struggle to find much.

[controlledrest]

Numero Crunchero

A good post. In most companies, including CX, the managers only really care about their next bonus and their next promotion. The big bosses have said to stop spending money now, so the sycophants comply. There is no thought to the future.

I look forward to the time when carriers are recruiting and CX is forced to improve the smell of the :mad: commonly known as POS18. Our managers are happy enough with direct entry FOs and Captns. Will be interesting to see if anyone turns up when everyone worth anything in CX is looking for an exit.

[Hotoffthepress]

I feel the situation could be exacerbated by HKE. First new A321s to be received in OCT 22 followed by 15 more. I'm not sure if they're fleet replacements or for expansion. CX could always delay the deliveries, or incorporate them into CX fleet. Point being is they're coming. If the talk is real about pilots leaving CX, then the problem should be worse at HKE.

With the demise of Dragon, Cathay inherited an airline without the crew. With the eventual rebound in travel, they will come to realise that (hypothetically) operating 3 airlines whilst being short staffed will significantly halt their recovery/expansion plans. (Same occurred with the US domestic airlines, growth being delayed due to crewing shortage - I know it's a very loose comparison as I'm comparing the US Domestic market to HK International market)

As far as Cathay is concerned, they have achieved all they wanted. They have obtained financial backing from the HK Government, being deemed too big to fail - you could almost argue that the taxpayer has refinanced and effectively paid for HK Express acquisition ($4.93B). All are reduced to COS18. Bases are closed. Dragon assets inherited with consent from the CAAC. Short term, the gamble has paid off. Long term consequences are unknown but that's not really a consideration for management nor has it ever been.

[Curry Lamb]

Numero Crunchero

WTF are you smoking!! Your assumptions and guessstimates are based on CXit expanding. IF the company makes it through covid, and that’s a big IF, it’s gonna be less than half the size it used to be.

Hong Kong is contracting at an alarming rate, that even has the clowns in govt worried, and wait until the CCP bulldozes through the anti-sanctions law, which has been put on hold for the time being, while they “evaluate their options”.

Seriously it’s one thing being optimistic, but another being so naive to think that boom times for HK and CXi are going to come roaring back! Dream on.

[Numero Crunchero]

Hi Curry Lamb
actually i have based the above on zero expansion - zero.

As of 31/12/2020 we had 91 long haul a/c. Average annual hours for airbus/777 pre protests/covid was just a little under 700.
Big assumption: This time ISN'T different. That is - like the world has recovered(eventually) from every crisis in history, I will assume that one day, the skies will be as full as they were in 2018 say. Pick a year? 2024? 2028?

Anyway - looking at those 91 a/c (yes we are losing a few 777s - gaining a bunch more of them in a few years - but for the sake of simplifying the maths - let's use 91 a/c) - we need 711 crews - assuming all that flying is long haul that is 4 per crew so 2844 - this ignores management and check and training additions.

We need about 400 pilots or so to man the freighters.

So that is 3244 pilots - we have 2900 with another 100+ to leave as the list still includes based pilots in Europe and NA.

So if we expand to 3244 pilots then we will have enough to man 111 of our aircraft - the other 88 will need to sit in AS for a few more years.

As far as going broke - we were cash flow neutral in first half(still loss making as a business) and expect to be doing a lot better in the 2nd half. What the bottom line figure will be I dont know - but I suspect for the year the total loss will be around the 10B mark. And as far as I know they haven't used any of the Govt loan money as yet - I think they said there was circa 30B in cash+govt loan. So at the cash burn rate of the first half we would run out of money around December 2023 - assuming they can't tap Swire/CCP + Hk Govt for more money.

So do I think we will survive? Yes! (barring a comet/covid22/GFC mk 2)

Or you are right- and the sky is falling

[Jnr380]

Yeah the flying will go back to normal, everything will go back to normal except for being locked up in the hotel room at layovers, that’ll probably be around till at least a year after all travel restrictions have eased.

[Curry Lamb]

It already has. US can’t keep up with recruitment and have been cancelling flights due to a lack of manpower. Europe is recovering fast, and Singapore taken the lead in living with covid, as they realise there will never be zero cases, humans having lived with the flu for thousands of years.

Only delusional HK government (or the lack thereof) which drags down the whole local airline industry with it. Good luck :ok:

Coronavirus: Hong Kong ‘no longer’ in travel bubble talks with other places, goal to maintain zero infections
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3145883/coronavirus-hong-kong-no-longer-travel-bubble

[missingblade]

Numero you base your projections on zero growth and a world recovery as has always been the case in the past.

However HKG and China looks set to severally stunt travelling freedoms for a significant amount of time still.

Even when we reach the mythical 70% vaccinated percentage there is no way they will allow free unrestricted travel in and out of hkg any time soon. It will be travellers from "low risk" countries only that will be allowed into hkg without quarantine. And that changes weekly.

Most of Asia won't be low risk any time soon.
So our local business is dead because the hundreds of thousands of holiday trips hong kong people made around asia and Asians to hkg won't be happening again soon. HKG EXPRESS is thus dead for another 12 to 24 months.

That leaves our transit business. Realistically within the next 12 months we should be able to go back to India/ Indonesia / Phillipines etc and go pick up thousands of travellers there to transit them via hkg onto USA /Canada / EU ( not Aus or NZ as they will also restrict travellers from high risk places for a long time still)
BUT the crew on these flights will all have to be closed loop....for possibly another two years or so. Good luck with that.

Then there's the fact that tourism from the west to China is a thing of the past due politics.

If the above scenario plays out the majority of the 777 fleet will remain parked for another year at least and more likely two years as our pax business will be half or less of what it was before covid....thus no pilot shortage in hkg for a while stil?

PS.
Question to management - what do you do with a 777 fleet when you realise it's been parked for two years almost already and it will possibly be parked for two more...?

[Numero Crunchero]

Hmmm - I am either not writing clearly enough or people are speed reading past the important bits.

Pick a date when we get back to normal flying - say 20August 2024

Pick a year? 2024? 2028?


So that is 3244 pilots - we have 2900 with another 100+ to leave as the list still includes based pilots in Europe and NA.

So if we expand to 3244 pilots then we will have enough to man 111 of our aircraft - the other 88 will need to sit in AS for a few more years.



At some point - next year - the year after - the year after that - 2028 - at some point we need a shed load more pilots. We do NOT have enough pilots to man our aircraft to the levels they were being flown in 2018 (pre protests/covid). There will be many "Missed Opportunities" (as a former manager called it) for the next few years.

Or you can believe that China will never open up again - and will never use HK as a gateway trading/commercial port again. That assumption only time will prove correct/incorrect. I choose to believe that the world will return to a new normal - just like it did after the GFC - just like it did after 9-11 when people said people will never trust flying again etc etc

[MENELAUS]

By which time you’ll be retired. And unless things start to move sharpish, with no domestic market to fall back on, and reliant solely on freight and traffic to and from HKG ( a destination getting less attractive by the minute ) the company will no longer exist. And open season for China Eastern/ Southern / take your pick / thereon. So the argument is somewhat moot.

[MENELAUS]

Assumptions. Assume this. Hong Kong is hardly the ideal destination that it once was. So why on earth would you go there ?
Roll up. Roll up. Welcome to Asia’s world city. Take advantage of our flip flop troglodyte zero Covid policy and enjoy 21 days confinement at your expense at one of our luxury quarantine hotels, as administered by the Stasi. Complete with :mad: food, plastic bedding and no facilities, and regular testing over a 24 day period. To no avail.
If that fails to satisfy then we’ll bang up you, your family, neighbours, your kids entire school year, and anyone unfortunate enough to have been in the same mall as you in Kzl Pennys’ Bay, noted for its standards of care, hygiene and cuisine. And ship your pets off to a pound.
Whilst here, be sure to avail yourself of our liberal banking and securities system. Deposit anything and everything here, and if you have even a tenuous connection to Uncle Sam, we’ll sequester it. And good luck getting it back.
Finally, please feel free to stress test our new security laws, rushed in we’re pleased to say with minimal opposition nor complaint. For there is no opposition. One harsh word about the Motherland and we’ll ship you over the border faster than you can say Deng Xiaoping.
I’ve not even begun to mention going there on POS 21. Which would bankrupt someone trying to feed, provide for, clothe and educate the average nuclear family.

[Rie]

Unfortunately there are large numbers of SE Asia and Subcontinent pilots willing to come here on POS21. If they can't find the quality they are after then the bar just keeps getting lowered. First it was iCadets now it'll be an AirAsia/Indigo/Lionair/Cebu child with a few hours happily taking over the reins. Happened in EK/QR/Unmentionable. Maybe the office staff will follow suit.

[MENELAUS]

If that’s the calibre of individual they’re after then good luck. They’d better install rear facing seats.

[anxiao]

I am reminded of Stalins comment when told of the far better quality of the enemies troops compared to his vastly more numerous and inferior army.

"Quantity has a quality of its own."

[MENELAUS]

He also said, inter alia, “Death is the solution to all problems. No man - no problem”.

[controlledrest]

When CX last interviewed about 20 'experienced' Indian pilots they ended up offering a position to one. He turned CX down as POS18 wasn't good enough. A lot of pilots have left the industry and the big schools have stopped producing at the bottom end. Wuhan virus will become endemic regardless of government policies. Air travel will return and CX will find itself short of drivers.

[controlledrest]

If that’s the calibre of individual they’re after then good luck. They’d better install rear facing seats.

This is why recruitment was taken from FOP to People. FOP was being too fussy and target recruitment numbers weren't been met.

[ThrustAssymComp]

Are they really need pilots now?

[Rie]

That hurts my brain to read. But no they are not hiring. They have enough angered locals from KA and HKA that are willing to jump across for recency.

[Memorylapse]

No I don’t think they is. But I think they is being put under the pressure from IMD to employ some peoples to justify the work permit issues. Please apply - you sound like a perfect fit for the City of Kitty!

[ThrustAssymComp]

I don’t think they will approve my application since I only have CPL, even with 777 rating. And not a PR. But anyway, yes I applied.

[MENELAUS]

Yes. You might want to read a few books before the interview. Preferably in English. Not Esperanto.

[ThrustAssymComp]

what books? Thanks.

[MENELAUS]

Brooklyn yellow pages.

[Rie]

Why would you even apply if you are not PR and it "pacifically" says to be a local...

Rumour has it that when UO opened up applications they had a few hundred locals apply but then nearly 10k applications from non-PR holders.

Hopefully applications like those just go straight in the trash and accounts blacklisted.

[Cortisol Depleted]

People apply because they are desperate for an airline job at the moment - it doesn’t do any harm. It’s not particularly labour intensive as all the non-PRs can be filtered-out for selection (just Yes/No tick boxes), those that aren’t are in a database for when HK runs out of ‘right to live and work’ pilots and visas need to be issued again.

[Acepilothk99]

Got an email from Tim Burns for all the cadet pilots telling them to be expect to hear something from the company by early to mid 2022.