Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

[ORAC]

What air assets will remain based in Qatar and elsewhere to provide air support - and of course Elint and strikes against Al Qaeda, Daesh etc as the bubble up...

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/washington-approves-establishment-of-us-forces-afghanistan-forward-command

Washington approves establishment of ‘US Forces Afghanistan Forward' command

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has approved the establishment of a new command in Afghanistan that will be tasked with overseeing the few hundred US troops that will remain in the Central Asian country once Washington completes its military drawdown by the end of August.

The Kabul-based ‘US Forces Afghanistan Forward' command will be in charge of protecting the US diplomatic presence in the country, supporting security requirements at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, providing continued advice and assistance to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), and supporting US counter-terrorism efforts, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on 2 July.

The new command, which is currently being stood up, will be led by US Navy Rear Admiral Peter Vasely, whose command will be supported by US Army Brigadier General Curtis Buzzard, who will lead the Defense Security Management Office Afghanistan. That office will be based in Qatar and administer funding support for the ANDSF to include ‘over-the-horizon' aircraft maintenance support, noted Kirby.

As part of the ongoing drawdown process, Austin also approved a plan to transfer command authority over US Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A) from US Army General Scott Miller to US Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, the head of US Central Command (USCENTCOM), added Kirby, pointing out that the transfer is set to become effective later this month.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2021-07-02/us-drawdown-afghanistan-mckenzie-miller-vasely-troops-2033972.html

“(McKenzie) will continue to exercise authority over the conduct of any and all counterterrorism operations needed to protect the homeland from threats emanating out of Afghanistan, and he will lead efforts to develop options for the logistical, financial and technical support to Afghan forces once our drawdown is complete,” Kirby said.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/07/06/after-troops-exit-safety-of-us-embassy-in-kabul-top-concern/

After troops exit, safety of US Embassy in Kabul top concern

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — As the end to America’s “forever war” rapidly approaches, the U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic missions in Kabul are watching a worsening security situation (https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/06/29/top-us-general-says-security-in-afghanistan-deteriorating/) and looking at how to respond.

In the countryside, districts are falling to the Taliban in rapid succession. America’s warlord allies are re-arming their militias, which have a violent history, raising the specter of another civil war once the U.S. withdrawal (https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/06/08/us-pullout-from-afghanistan-half-done-but-questions-remain/)is finished, expected in August.

A U.S. Embassy spokesperson told The Associated Press that security assessments are frequent these days. Speaking on condition of anonymity in line with briefing rules, she said the embassy is currently down to 1,400 U.S. citizens and about 4,000 staff working inside the compound the size of a small town.

A well-fortified town, that is. Besides its own formidable security, the embassy lies inside Kabul’s Green Zone, where entire neighborhoods have been closed off and giant blast walls line streets closed to outside traffic. Afghan security forces guard the barricades into the district, which also houses the Presidential Palace, other embassies and senior government officials.

The only route out is Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, currently protected by U.S. and Turkish troops. Before America can declare its war over, the security of the airport will have to be settled. Ankara is in talks with Washington, the United Nations and the Afghan government to decide who will protect the airport and who will foot the bill.

For now, the airport is running without interruption, except for restrictions imposed by a deadly third COVID surge that has prompted some countries to suspend flights to Kabul. However, India is not one of them — as many as eight flights arrive weekly from India — and as a result, the virus’ delta variant, first identified in India, is rampant in Afghanistan.

In Kabul, it’s common to hear speculation about when and if the U.S. Embassy will evacuate and shut down, with images resurrected of America’s last days in Saigon at the end of the Vietnam war.....

Citing security concerns, the U.S. spokesperson said she couldn’t reveal evacuation plans, or even if that’s a part of today’s conversation, but said the embassy has detailed plans for every scenario to protect its staff.....

Heavily armed guards patrol Wazir Akbar Khan streets, lined with marble mansions of government officials, many of them former warlords. Though united today against the Taliban, they have a brutal history of fighting each other.

For some, a Taliban play for Kabul seems inevitable.

“After the takeover of the districts and some provinces, the Taliban will make a try to enter Kabul,” said Torek Farhadi, a former adviser to the Afghan government. “They will face the regular army, but also the warlords who have accumulated huge wealth out of war related contracts.”

[Toadstool]

[QUOTE=ORAC;11074170]What air assets will remain based in Qatar and elsewhere to provide air support - and of course Elint and strikes against Al Qaeda, Daesh etc as the bubble up...

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/washington-approves-establishment-of-us-forces-afghanistan-forward-command

Good article thanks. My understanding is that, at present, the Taliban (and other ACM) do not have access to Specific hardware that would necessitate Elint support so that would not be my highest priority.

[Asturias56]

Another Afghan War lost.................. that's Britain's 4th - you'd think we'd learn................

[minigundiplomat]

Another Afghan War lost.................. that's Britain's 4th - you'd think we'd learn................

I’m curious, as you’ve popped up on every thread of this nature with a similar sentiment , how long you spent in Afghanistan?

the Taliban are committed and willing to die for their cause, but they aren’t some ninja type of master tactician. They didn’t win the war, Western politicians surrendered. It started withGeorge W shifting forces to the sideshow in Iraq at a critical time, was confirmed by Obama announcing a withdrawal and now completed by Biden’s last flight out of Saigon exodus

Please don’t regale us with the view of the Daily Mail editor.

[Haraka]

Another Afghan War lost.................. that's Britain's 4th - you'd think we'd learn................

The British Army realised that in the 19th Century and General Staffs were advised to warn Politicians against any further expeditions.

[SASless]

Bush...Obama...Biden....why no mention of Blair et al?

Also...how many Generals...from both the US and UK Militaries presided over this twenty year War....and allowed yet another Vietnam and Iraq happen?

Care to take up that part of the discussion of what went wrong?

How many of them "went along to get along....and get promoted"?

[ORAC]

Care to take up that part of the discussion of what went wrong?

Because I titled the thread 2021 onwards because it’s intended to be about the future, not raking over the previous 20 years.

Please feel free to start a thread covering 2001 to 2021 if you wish to rake over the coals - doing so in this thread would inevitably mean the original intent would be swept away - at which point I’ll erase my first post - and the thread.

[etudiant]

Because I titled the thread 2021 onwards because it’s intended to be about the future, not raking over the previous 20 years.

Please feel free to start a thread covering 2001 to 2021 if you wish to rake over the coals - doing so in this thread would inevitably mean the original intent would be swept away - at which point I’ll erase my first post - and the thread.

Well, the path forward is already interesting, with China building a 4 lane road to the country at their short shared border over the Wakhjir Pass, earlier an important link in the Silk Road.
The US on leaving foolishly destroyed all the gear too big to remove. Had they left their massive truck and equipment park, there would have been a commercial link in the reasonably near future. As is, nothing remains but destruction.
The Chinese have money and ample civil engineering resources, they surely would love to be on the ground floor in rebuilding Afghanistan.. There is just the small matter of religion.
Perhaps the Taliban will soft pedal that aspect, to get the country back to some semblance of progress. Considering that, Vietnam is now friends with the US to balance China, possibly the Taliban will evolve similarly, if the US turns the page.

[fitliker]

The remaining Turkish military may seize control of the Opium and drug trade and force the poor Afghanies to quit cold Turkey .
Might mean even cheaper drugs for Europe . That might be a good thing if the junkies do not have to steal as much to feed their addictions .
Either way it may turn into a street drug gang tribal turf war like Seattle , NewYork and Chicago .
The same gangs with roots in Afghanistan , India , Pakistan , Iran , throw a few Triads and Friendly Societies into the mix and you could have the ingredients for a global civil war creating a dystopia like most video games try to emulate .
Mad Max was set in 2021 .

[SASless]

ORAC,

Unfortunately one cannot isolate the past from the present or the future....as it all has connections, influences, old wrongs, and debts owed that shall determine how the future turns out.

Likewise, Religion, Politics, and government shall all play a role in how this turns out....how do you ignore those influences without looking to the past.

China has some policies that are going to be a cause of discord with the Taliban it would appear....so I would be surprised that the new China -Afghanistan shall be a smooth road to travel in the future.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/02/25/chinas-treatment-muslims-defining-moment-organization-islamic-cooperation#

[Dorf]

The asshole of the world. There's no reason for any American or European to die there again. Just monitor for nukes and bomb the **** out of them when they're getting close. The Israelis learned this decades ago.

[Lonewolf_50]

The Pashtun like to fight and are good at it. The Taliban recruit heavily from that part of the population. The rest? We'll see if they have the stomach to fight for what they want. If they don't, the Taliban will be in charge again in a few years, with ample support from the Pakistanis,
may they all rot in hell.



[Big Pistons Forever]

The last time the Taliban ran Afghanistan they were a remarkably incompetent government. Like ISIS they will find it is a lot easier killing people and blowing stuff up than actually running the place. Afghanistan has been resistant to central government dictatorship for 500 years. The Taliban will eventually wear out their welcome and Afghanistan will revert to its traditional decentralized provincial power certres.

[TukwillaFlyboy]

As an Australian I will paraphrase Bismarck;

“The whole of Afghanistan is not worth the bones of one Australian SAS”

Mission creep and lack of clearly defined definitions of success at its worst.Why do we in the West keep doing it?

Plus , as Asturias56 has pointed out, a comprehensive ignorance of history.

I’m extremely happy we are out.

[Asturias56]

"I’m curious, as you’ve popped up on every thread of this nature with a similar sentiment"

Because when I see people making the same mistake over and over again I feel despair.

History proves that foreigners intervening in places like the Yemen, Afghanistan, Congo, etc leads to a disaster for all parties. They have very serious problems and these can't be fixed by a few foreigners coming in hoping to change things in a few years using military strength or money or people. They have to sort themselves out.

[TukwillaFlyboy]

"I’m curious, as you’ve popped up on every thread of this nature with a similar sentiment"

Because when I see people making the same mistake over and over again I feel despair.

History proves that foreigners intervening in places like the Yemen, Afghanistan, Congo, etc leads to a disaster for all parties. They have very serious problems and these can't be fixed by a few foreigners coming in hoping to change things in a few years using military strength or money or people. They have to sort themselves out.

You left out Vietnam………..
I wonder if there is a 2021 version of “The Pentagon Papers” hiding out there.

[SASless]

"I’m curious, as you’ve popped up on every thread of this nature with a similar sentiment"

Because when I see people making the same mistake over and over again I feel despair.

History proves that foreigners intervening in places like the Yemen, Afghanistan, Congo, etc leads to a disaster for all parties. They have very serious problems and these can't be fixed by a few foreigners coming in hoping to change things in a few years using military strength or money or people. They have to sort themselves out.


Using your logic the United States should have sat out WWI and WWII, Korea, The Suez Canal, Vietnam, Gulf War I, not supported Israel, Somalia, or even the Cold War I suppose.

I do fully agree with your despair over making the same mistakes over and over....it is not the jumping in that is the major mistake....it is why and how that causes the problems.

The last real War we fought was WWII...the rest have been "limited Wars"....and we can see how all of those have turned out.

If we are to engage in War...it must be done to win by destroying the enemy's ability and will to fight.....with no limit to how it is done.

ROE's, Lawyers, and the reluctance to get right down to the business of destroying the enemy is our Achilles Heel.

[Asturias56]

I agree with much of what you say - Vietnam was one that could have been won, or at least strung out for longer. A decent Govt in the South would have helped. I think

Yemen and Afghanistan are more difficult - they all fight each other at the drop of a hat but if a foreigner appears they're turn on them first - I've known families like that

And when it's everyone against you, not organised forces, it becomes hard to wipe out the whole country

[etudiant]

As an Australian I will paraphrase Bismarck;

“The whole of Afghanistan is not worth the bones of one Australian SAS”

Mission creep and lack of clearly defined definitions of success at its worst.Why do we in the West keep doing it?

Plus , as Asturias56 has pointed out, a comprehensive ignorance of history.

I’m extremely happy we are out.

Very much agree, but the near term will be messy as the Taliban take over, which they appear to be on course to complete this summer.
Perhaps we will be able to resist the calls for intervention for 'humanitarian reasons' this time, unlike in Syria, Libya or Kosovo.

[TukwillaFlyboy]

At first, British soldiers promoted European civilization in India and Afghanistan and drew Durand lines, until now the region can`t calm down. Then the Americans seized Iraq, so much so that gangsters crawled out of all the holes there and democracy went everywhere in the American way. In Syria, too, if the Russians had not prevented it would have been the same. The next hundred years, perhaps, the Chinese will promote their own orders there. I forgot to mention about the Russians in Afghanistan, at least they were building socialism there.

At least the original British interventions in Afghanistan had some intellectual and pragmatic justification, namely to stop the threat (probably nonexistent) of Russian interference in India.
The justification for the US intervention in Afghanistan was equally valid , namely to capture Osama Bin Laden and shut down Al Qaeda , but rapidly disintegrated with the total inability to understand Pakistans position and a refusal to negotiate with the Taliban, who probably would have given Bin Laden up.
Hence 20 years of folly.
The USA since WW2 has never really worked out what its Superpower status really means.
Empire or not ?

[staircase]

a quote from a newspaper article this last weekend.

'the basic error we made, was we thought that democracy could be brought about from the barrel of a gun'

[SASless]

The problem with being the only Superpower has its own problems....as Tuk opines.

Throw in the changes in Government we go through every four to eight years depending upon who wins the National Election and one can understand the confusion that can bring to International politics.

If the Chinese are genuinely smart they shall beat us by means of Trade and Industry....and really cheap labor.

But...they too shall have to be very careful in managing their own growth and domestic financial situation.

For now the Russian Bear has had its claws trimmed...but over time they too can become a major player in the World Markets....especially if they get a lock on the energy supply to Western Europe.

We have to be looking way into the future when negotiating current deals....such as the pipelines from Russia to the West while stopping new pipelines between Candada and the USA.

[Asturias56]

China has maybe 20 years before the burden of carrying an enormous number of old people becomes overwhelming. Problem with a one-child policy is that eventually each child has to pay for two parents ........ especially in a country with such a poor social service provision as the PRC. The population has just about stopped growing - they don't have any inward migration to fill the gaps.

[etudiant]

China has maybe 20 years before the burden of carrying an enormous number of old people becomes overwhelming. Problem with a one-child policy is that eventually each child has to pay for two parents ........ especially in a country with such a poor social service provision as the PRC. The population has just about stopped growing - they don't have any inward migration to fill the gaps.

Presumably the Chinese strategy is to build up enough assets world wide near term that the returns will then help support their aging population, sort of Belt and Road as a Social Security payer.
No idea whether that can work, but it seems more sensible than blowing $15 trillion on completely counterproductive Mid East wars.

[flash8]

For now the Russian Bear has had its claws trimmed...You wouldn't think so from where I'm sitting.

Mind you, they are on occasion as inscrutable as the Chinese, sometimes been in meetings with a bevy of mid-ranking GRU officers discussing this and that and found that four hours later, at conclusion, we've progressed backwards. That is a feat, they certainly knocked back the after meeting (gratis) Vodka's though.

Chinese? Long multi hour meetings and not ONE smile. In fact one Chinese chap smiled at me after a meeting once and I was genuinely shocked. They are the true tacticians!

[SASless]

Flash....as compared to in the past....was my reference....for sure they are not benign and at times Putin seems to want to see the old glory days of the Soviet Union return.

They have proven to very worthy adversaries over the years as we well know.

Or....we have proven ourselves to be easy targets far too often.

[flash8]

Or....we have proven ourselves to be easy targets far too often.And here lies the problem, clueless politicians way out of their depth!

[etudiant]

Meanwhile, the Taliban called China 'a welcome friend' in helping reconstruction and said they would guarantee the safety of workers and investors if they return. The spokesman claimed the Taliban already control 85% of the country.
See: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3140399/china-welcome-friend-reconstruction-afghanistan-taliban?utm_source=rss_feed

[ORAC]

Not a thickness of paper between his and Trump’s policy in the region. I wonder what it means for the counter insurgency operations in Africa as Daesh and there like expand into sub-Saharan states. The mention of Yemen is interesting considering the pressure to lessen support for SA in that conflict.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/afghanistan-is-not-worth-more-us-lives-says-joe-biden-as-taliban-advance-r2s2cvwhs

Afghanistan is not worth more US lives, says Joe Biden as Taliban advance

President Biden insisted that fears of a bloody Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would not reverse the US troop withdrawal as fighting raged in the west of the country for control of a provincial capital.

With the Pentagon saying that the pull-out was “90 per cent complete”, Biden, 78, said that the US mission would be over by August 31 and that the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces had to take responsibility for defending the government of President Ghani (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taliban-fighters-in-northern-province-pushed-back-by-government-troops-c0m5fgbzc) amid fears that Kabul would soon come under attack….

The president said that the US would continue to provide military training and humanitarian assistance but made clear that he was not willing to risk any more American lives in an Afghan civil war (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-could-lead-to-civil-war-says-top-us-commander-lf5rmczqb)….

It was “not in the national interest to continue fighting” now that al-Qaeda had been defeated there, he added.

“I will not send another generation of Americans to war in Afghanistan with no reasonable expectation of achieving a different outcome,” he said…..

Jen Psaki, Biden’s spokeswoman, conceded that “it is a 20-year war that has not been won militarily” but said that “we did exactly what we intended to do”.

The threat from al-Qaeda and Islamic State now came from other countries such as Syria, Yemen and Somalia, she said.…

The spiralling violence in northern Afghanistan has stoked fears in the surrounding former Soviet republics that ethnic tensions within their own countries could be ignited…..

Russia has said it will step in to protect the former Soviet states if it has to.

[SASless]

Will the Russians be fighting a political insurgency or a religious based insurgency?

China has its own issues with the Religion of Peace in those regions within China that has significant numbers of adherents to that particular religion.

What happens if Al Qeada finds new support by elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan?

[melmothtw]

...a refusal to negotiate with the Taliban, who probably would have given Bin Laden up.

It was precisely because the Taliban refused to give up Bin Laden that the US and its allies invaded.

[RatherBeFlying]

They had tried to civilise some ruffian squabbling Greek city states. But got a bloody nose at Plataea.
​​​​​λέγεται δὲ καὶ τάδε γενέσθαι, ὡς Ξέρξης φεύγων ἐκ τῆς Ἑλλάδος Μαρδονίῳ τὴν κατασκευὴν καταλίποι τὴν ἑωυτοῦ· Παυσανίην ὦν ὁρῶντα τὴν Μαρδονίου κατασκευὴν χρυσῷ τε καὶ ἀργύρῳ καὶ παραπετάσμασι ποικίλοισι κατεσκευασμένην, κελεῦσαι τούς τε ἀρτοκόπους καὶ τοὺς ὀψοποιοὺς κατὰ ταὐτὰ καθὼς Μαρδονίῳ δεῖπνον παρασκευάζειν.

This other story is also told. When Xerxes fled from Hellas, he left to Mardonius his own establishment. Pausanias, seeing Mardonius' establishment with its display of gold and silver and gaily colored tapestry, ordered the bakers and the cooks to prepare a dinner such as they were accustomed to do for Mardonius.

9.82.2 ὡς δὲ κελευόμενοι οὗτοι ἐποίευν ταῦτα, ἐνθαῦτα τὸν Παυσανίην ἰδόντα κλίνας τε χρυσέας καὶ ἀργυρέας εὖ ἐστρωμένας καὶ τραπέζας τε χρυσέας καὶ ἀργυρέας καὶ παρασκευὴν μεγαλοπρεπέα τοῦ δείπνου, ἐκπλαγέντα τὰ προκείμενα ἀγαθὰ κελεῦσαι ἐπὶ γέλωτι τοὺς ἑωυτοῦ διηκόνους παρασκευάσαι Λακωνικὸν δεῖπνον.

They did his bidding, but Pausanias, when he saw golden and silver couches richly covered, and tables of gold and silver, and all the magnificent service of the banquet, was amazed at the splendor before him, and for a joke commanded his own servants to prepare a dinner in Laconian fashion. When that meal, so different from the other, was ready, Pausanias burst out laughing and sent for the generals of the Greeks.

9.82.3 ὡς δὲ τῆς θοίνης ποιηθείσης ἦν πολλὸν τὸ μέσον, τὸν Παυσανίην γελάσαντα μεταπέμψασθαι τῶν Ἑλλήνων τοὺς στρατηγούς, συνελθόντων δὲ τούτων εἰπεῖν τὸν Παυσανίην, δεικνύντα ἐς ἑκατέρην τοῦ δείπνου παρασκευήν· “ἄνδρες Ἕλληνες, τῶνδε εἵνεκα ἐγὼ ὑμέας συνήγαγον, βουλόμενος ὑμῖν τοῦδε τοῦ Μήδων ἡγεμόνος τὴν ἀφροσύνην δέξαι, ὃς τοιήνδε δίαιταν ἔχων ἦλθε ἐς ἡμέας οὕτω ὀϊζυρὴν ἔχοντας ἀπαιρησόμενος.” ταῦτα μὲν Παυσανίην λέγεται εἰπεῖν πρὸς τοὺς στρατηγοὺς τῶν Ἑλλήνων. 9.82.3

When these had assembled, Pausanias pointed to the manner in which each dinner was served and said: “Men of Hellas, I have brought you here because I desired to show you the foolishness of the leader of the Medes who, with such provisions for life as you see, came here to take away from us our possessions which are so pitiful.” In this way, it is said, Pausanias spoke to the generals of the Greeks.

[fltlt]

“Never Mind, we’ll do it ourselves” written by Alec Bierbauer and retired Col. Mark Cooter is well worth the read if you want a little insight on the Bin Laden issues, before and after 9/11.
Details the use of Predator, to include the initial trialing and arming with Hellfire, the interagency fighting, indecision, and the SA-3 donut hole, amongst other things, from after Bosnia, through to almost current times.

[GlobalNav]

I’m curious, as you’ve popped up on every thread of this nature with a similar sentiment , how long you spent in Afghanistan?

the Taliban are committed and willing to die for their cause, but they aren’t some ninja type of master tactician. They didn’t win the war, Western politicians surrendered. It started withGeorge W shifting forces to the sideshow in Iraq at a critical time, was confirmed by Obama announcing a withdrawal and now completed by Biden’s last flight out of Saigon exodus

Please don’t regale us with the view of the Daily Mail editor.

Doesn't it also depend on what we were trying to achieve? Perhaps, we got too tied up trying to "make everything right" in our own eyes regarding democratic institutions, women's rights etc. I'm for all those things, but frankly, it's impossible to do it for a country that wouldn't do it for themselves. As ugly as things will get after we depart, it wouldn't be any different 20 years from now, except for the loss of too many of our troops (including allies) in the meantime. I don't see a perfect solution. Perhaps we should have stuck to "getting Al Queda" and establishing just enough defensive security for that, and leaving when that's achieved all that we could.

[TukwillaFlyboy]

It was precisely because the Taliban refused to give up Bin Laden that the US and its allies invaded.

Yes, except that was the invasion itself that welded the Taliban onto Al Qaeda.
Prior to the invasion Mullah Omar was under pressure to break ties with Al Qaeda.
The Talibans ambitions were and remain local , not global. Many in the Taliban were irritated by Bin Ladens campaign against the US. It was seen as a liability and a distraction.
The US could have handled it differently and peeled the Taliban off.
But that leaves the Taliban in charge.
It was a conundrum.
Twenty years later we are back where we started.

[Less Hair]

Why doesn't the Afghan National Army work with all the training and equipment given? Without it we will be back to blown up Buddhas in no time.

[Warmtoast]

The Russians invaded Afghanistan in 1978, but the whole thing was too much for them and they left the country ten-years later in February 1989.
Photos show Soviet troops in Kabul and as they departed the country in February 1989. (Photos from US Dept. for Defence and Novosti).

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x921/image2_6afef233804346fd8b8634efd84416aac70fbea5.jpg
Soviet Troops in Kabul


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/711x904/image1_c04bfecb77d3d4ee172ef7d5cbee0f5e1cbbab8b.jpg
Soviets Departing February 1989

[SpyPilot]

The Russians invaded Afghanistan in 1978, but the whole thing was too much for them and they left the country ten-years later

I'm only familiar with the man from the Tom Hanks movie but I gather that Charlie Wilson played no small role in encouraging the Soviet Army to turn tail for home.

[skridlov]

Having travelled around Afghanistan in the 70s whilst Zaher Shah was still present and having read many books about the country's history, I can strongly recommend to anyone interested that they read the above book. The historical parallels with the current situation are nothing short of astonishing.

The core problem is that "Afghanistan" is a faulty notion, not a country. It never has been a unitary entity and never will be. It's a tribal region that has been intermittently (and mostly continually) in a state of internal conflict since the time of Alexander the Great. One of the original phases of "nation building" this time around was the stated objective of creating a national army / security apparatus which comprised a demographic which is representative of the Afghan population - ie about 40% Pashtun. This was never achieved even at officer level, with a high proportion being Tajiks - who had previously been at war with the Pashtun/Taliban. In consequence the National Army would always be seen as occupiers in the Pashtun region. Add to this the fact that the country has long been a proxy for the conflict between India and Pakistan, the latter having a vested interest in maintaining Pashtun/Taliban dominance.

During the long running civil war in the post-Soviet period the only effective counterbalance to the Taliban was the Tajik army based in the Panshir Valley under the command of Ahmad Shah Massoud (whose comrade Dr. Abdullah has since been a constant presence in the national government). Shortly before "9/11" Massoud visited Europe where he attempted to warn us about the peril represented by the presence of Bin Laden in Afghanistan. European politicians simply ignored him. Before the 9/11 attacks could be implemented, Bin Laden made sure that Massoud was assassinated. What might have been if only we'd listened?

The current withdrawal from the lost war in Afghanistan really does resemble the US debacle during withdrawal from Vietnam. Afghans of various ethnicities who believed that the West could drag this primitive region kicking and screaming into the 20th century are being abandoned to the tender mercies of the obscurantist mullahs of the Taliban. TV news programs are already recounting the appalling situation of translators who have been denied even provisional asylum - often for completely absurd reasons. Tens of thousands of people are even less able to obtain asylum.

The country will be largely under Taliban control within a matter of weeks and they will be utterly merciless to the "collaborators"..

[Less Hair]

Aside from drug money who is funding the Taliban?

[TukwillaFlyboy]

Having travelled around Afghanistan in the 70s whilst Zaher Shah was still present and having read many books about the country's history, I can strongly recommend to anyone interested that they read the above book. The historical parallels with the current situation are nothing short of astonishing.

The core problem is that "Afghanistan" is a faulty notion, not a country. It never has been a unitary entity and never will be. It's a tribal region that has been intermittently (and mostly continually) in a state of internal conflict since the time of Alexander the Great. One of the original phases of "nation building" this time around was the stated objective of creating a national army / security apparatus which comprised a demographic which is representative of the Afghan population - ie about 40% Pashtun. This was never achieved even at officer level, with a high proportion being Tajiks - who had previously been at war with the Pashtun/Taliban. In consequence the National Army would always be seen as occupiers in the Pashtun region. Add to this the fact that the country has long been a proxy for the conflict between India and Pakistan, the latter having a vested interest in maintaining Pashtun/Taliban dominance.

During the long running civil war in the post-Soviet period the only effective counterbalance to the Taliban was the Tajik army based in the Panshir Valley under the command of Ahmad Shah Massoud (whose comrade Dr. Abdullah has since been a constant presence in the national government). Shortly before "9/11" Massoud visited Europe where he attempted to warn us about the peril represented by the presence of Bin Laden in Afghanistan. European politicians simply ignored him. Before the 9/11 attacks could be implemented, Bin Laden made sure that Massoud was assassinated. What might have been if only we'd listened?

The current withdrawal from the lost war in Afghanistan really does resemble the US debacle during withdrawal from Vietnam. Afghans of various ethnicities who believed that the West could drag this primitive region kicking and screaming into the 20th century are being abandoned to the tender mercies of the obscurantist mullahs of the Taliban. TV news programs are already recounting the appalling situation of translators who have been denied even provisional asylum - often for completely absurd reasons. Tens of thousands of people are even less able to obtain asylum.

The country will be largely under Taliban control within a matter of weeks and they will be utterly merciless to the "collaborators"..

And “ The Great Game “ by Peter Hopkirk circa 1990.
Sadly our political masters don’t read history.

[skridlov]

Aside from drug money who is funding the Taliban?
Sunni fundamentalists of many stripes. Pakistan - through political and logistical support. The Saudis via many proxy fig-leaves, like the Deobandi movement. Deobandi mosques in our towns. And, although they would usually deny it to "kufars", much of the Islamic world's population.

[mtogw]

The Russians invaded Afghanistan in 1978, but the whole thing was too much for them and they left the country ten-years later in February 1989.
Photos show Soviet troops in Kabul and as they departed the country in February 1989. (Photos from US Dept. for Defence and Novosti).

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x921/image2_6afef233804346fd8b8634efd84416aac70fbea5.jpg
Soviet Troops in Kabul


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/711x904/image1_c04bfecb77d3d4ee172ef7d5cbee0f5e1cbbab8b.jpg
Soviets Departing February 1989
They left because the US were weaponising the mujahideen (Charlie Wilson), the Soviets were actually doing a lot of building in the country and its infrastructure, more importantly people were employed and had a decent living. You can still see it in Kabul today, tram tracks in the roads, massive grain mills, and the bog standard off the shelf soviet apartment blocks, which are locally known as macroyans... etc.. Now if Ahmad Shah Massoud had lived it might have been a very different situation today, Karzai should never have been put into power..
And yes, sadly I personally think things will deteriorate quickly
FYI the lower photo of the USSR leaving is actually on a bridge that they built, a vital link that is still in use today..

[Less Hair]

Looking at what's left from soviet days not much will be left from the western episode. Bound for stone age again and drug clans.

[SASless]

I must have been reading the wrong news reports about the Russian time in Afghanistan....as somehow the use of poison gas on civilians does not seem an effective way to win their Hearts and Minds?

Bombing and strafing villages also seems to be an odd way to provide full employment for workers.

If the Russians were doing such a grand job of "Nation Building" why were they engaged in combat with such ferocity as they were by the Taliban?

For those who only know of Charlie Wilson via Tom Hanks.....it was Congressional Legislation that funded support for the Muji's that Wilson was able to get passed into Law that he deserves credit for doing.

He was a sleazy guy personally.....but at least he saw a need to support those who were actively fighting a hostile Communist takeover of their own Country.

One that had no respect for Islam or its followers.

That wonderful bridge was built to facilitate the logistical support of Russian forces.....and not for the betterment of the Afghan people.

In no way can the Russians be seen as being in Afghanistan except for a perceived benefit to the Russians....and their support of a Communist Government in Afghanistan.

[Less Hair]

It would have been the first step towards the Indian Ocean for CCCP.
However stingers ended their air dominance.

[mtogw]

I must have been reading the wrong news reports about the Russian time in Afghanistan....as somehow the use of poison gas on civilians does not seem an effective way to win their Hearts and Minds?

Bombing and strafing villages also seems to be an odd way to provide full employment for workers.

If the Russians were doing such a grand job of "Nation Building" why were they engaged in combat with such ferocity as they were by the Taliban?

For those who only know of Charlie Wilson via Tom Hanks.....it was Congressional Legislation that funded support for the Muji's that Wilson was able to get passed into Law that he deserves credit for doing.

He was a sleazy guy personally.....but at least he saw a need to support those who were actively fighting a hostile Communist takeover of their own Country.

One that had no respect for Islam or its followers.

That wonderful bridge was built to facilitate the logistical support of Russian forces.....and not for the betterment of the Afghan people.

In no way can the Russians be seen as being in Afghanistan except for a perceived benefit to the Russians....and their support of a Communist Government in Afghanistan.

LOL,, I'm glad I didn't say it was a good thing they did,, just pointed out a few things,, those apartments are still very popular maybe even prestigious dwellings to some of the poorer Afghans,, and there are a lot of them, !! And yes there is a lovely irony in the "peace" bridge !! Just glad I'm not there anymore..

[mgahan]

Having had the opportunity to speak with Charlie Wilson a couple of years after the Tom Hanks movie was released, I understand the movie is largely a documentary and only a few of the scenes are there for the benefit of the movie goers.

If you remember the movie (or take some time to watch it again) Congressman Wilson's plea for funds for education, shown almost at the end of the movie and rejected by his peers, may well have been a game changer.

Too late now: the teaching medium will be Mandarin. .

MJG

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times.

Pakistan threatened to shoot down our planes attacking Taliban, claims Kabul (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/26c22b2c-e65f-11eb-a821-58982b1c936d?shareToken=c36a0e54334862f8fc6aba0e7a8db1b1)

Afghanistan has alleged that Pakistan has threatened to shoot down Afghan aircraft if they attacked a border crossing seized by the Taliban, an incendiary claim that has prompted a furious denial from Islamabad.

Amrullah Saleh, the Afghan vice-president, made the allegation on Twitter as government forces fought to retake the Spin Boldak crossing, in the southern province of Kandahar.

“Pakistan air force has issued official warning to the Afghan Army and Air Force that any move to dislodge the Taliban from Spin Boldak area will be faced and repelled,” Saleh tweeted. “Pakistan air force is now providing close air support to Taliban in certain areas.”

He later claimed that Afghan jets approaching the border were “warned to back off or face air-to-air missiles”.

The claim was echoed in a report by Tolo News, a local news station, which said that Afghan planes had been forced to abort a mission over Spin Boldak after a warning from Pakistan.

Not very neighbourly if true.

[fitliker]

Maybe they are scared the Fakirs will redraw the map back to its pre British India lines . A very large part of Pakistan used to belong to Afghanistan .
No wonder they are getting nervous .

[ORAC]

Things degenerating back to a warlord driven civil war - with air support…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-sends-gunships-and-bombers-to-beat-back-taliban-pmf3j7wqq

US sends gunships and bombers to beat back Taliban

American B-52 bombers and Spectre gunships bristling with cannon have been sent into action against the Taliban in an attempt to stop the insurgents’ march on three key cities in Afghanistan….

Aircraft used by the Afghans, many of which were supplied by the US, are running out of spares, munitions and pilots. At least seven pilots have been targeted and killed by the Taliban and the rest are reported to be exhausted by the relentless bombing and troop-carrying missions.

The air force is also suffering a repair backlog because of the withdrawal of thousands of American contractors. More than a third of the force’s 162 aircraft and helicopters are inoperable.

In response, US defence sources told The Times that B-52s, a stalwart of US air power for 70 years that can each carry up to 32 tonnes of bombs, were flying from al-Udeid airbase in Qatar over southwest Pakistan and into Afghanistan to hit Taliban targets around Lashkar Gah in Helmand province (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/former-british-hq-in-afghanistan-expected-to-fall-as-taliban-move-in-on-lashkar-gah-lbxzsm22l), Kandahar (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taliban-murder-900-in-kandahar-as-russia-deploys-fighter-jets-on-border-pq3hjfk50) and Herat.

The two other main US aircraft being used are AC-130 Spectre gunships, a heavily armed ground-attack version of a transport aircraft designed for low-altitude, close-air, cannon-firing support, and armed Reaper drones. Both aircraft are also based in Qatar, 1,000 miles away. At least five missions are being flown a day, the defence sources said.

The USS Ronald Reagan, an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, is also contributing its F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets to the missions….

Added to the growing expense of the post-withdrawal period will be the challenge of keeping the Afghan air force flying and combat-ready after the last of the 16,000 US contractors have left Afghanistan.

Captain Bill Urban, spokesman for US Central Command, which is in charge of the “over-the-horizon” operations in Afghanistan, said the maintenance of Afghan aircraft was being carried out in three ways. First, by the few hundred contractors still present in Afghanistan; second, by “virtual assistance” involving Zoom calls from the Gulf to Afghan mechanics; and third, by flying out aircraft to be checked “in a third country”, the location of which is secret.

Several aircraft have already been flown out by Afghan pilots, and flown back to rejoin the strike missions.

There is concern, however, that none of the US contractors will be in Kabul after August 31 as they are reluctant to stay without American back-up. If they were to stay longer, Urban said, it would also require a change of policy in Washington……

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/afghan-warlords-rejoin-the-fight-to-defeat-the-taliban-zkhv7tts5

Afghan warlords rejoin the fight to defeat the Taliban

…Scores of districts throughout Afghanistan have been overrun by the Islamists as government forces buckle. More than a dozen cities are under siege, with bitter fighting on the outskirts of provincial capitals to the north, south and west. One of them, Zarranj, fell yesterday.

In an attempt to stave off total collapse, President Ghani has turned to the warlords and their militias. Local fighters who register with the government are paid a salary and supplied with weapons to defend their homes against the Taliban.

The move has drawn some infamous characters back to the fray, with ominous echoes of the Afghan civil war of the 1990s that spawned the Taliban.

Many of the warlords who emerged after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 also have brutal reputations and their return has raised fears that Afghanistan could once again implode as local powerbrokers vie for dominance…..

Khan was a former comrade of many Taliban commanders in the mujahideen that fought the Soviet Union during the 1980s. He gained notoriety for supporting US forces as the Taliban were routed in 2001. Now aged 75, he has made a point of appearing on the battlefield with his men as the battle for Herat has raged from street to street.….

Another notorious warlord from the civil war era, Abdul Rashid Dostum, also announced his return to Afghanistan to join the battle against the Taliban this week.

While the politicians manoeuvre, however, many on the front lines in Afghanistan’s war-torn cities are fighting for survival. Word of Taliban atrocities has spread throughout the country as tens of thousands flee the Islamist advance…..

[ORAC]

https://news.sky.com/story/britons-warned-to-leave-afghanistan-immediately-as-war-enters-deadlier-and-more-destructive-phase-12374649

Britons warned to leave Afghanistan immediately as war enters 'deadlier and more destructive phase'

British nationals in Afghanistan are being told to leave immediately as the country's war moves into what the UN has described aIs a "deadlier and more destructive phase".

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on Friday evening issued an advisory against all travel to Afghanistan. It added: "If you are still in Afghanistan, you are advised to leave now by commercial means because of the worsening security situation."….

[etudiant]

https://news.sky.com/story/britons-warned-to-leave-afghanistan-immediately-as-war-enters-deadlier-and-more-destructive-phase-12374649

Britons warned to leave Afghanistan immediately as war enters 'deadlier and more destructive phase'

British nationals in Afghanistan are being told to leave immediately as the country's war moves into what the UN has described aIs a "deadlier and more destructive phase".

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on Friday evening issued an advisory against all travel to Afghanistan. It added: "If you are still in Afghanistan, you are advised to leave now by commercial means because of the worsening security situation."….

Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence in the current Afghan government.
I'd expect the Taliban to be back in charge by fall.
The good news is that the US removed its people early, so no Viet Nam style helicopters off the roof scenes.
Just an all round disaster, where the worst thing is that no one is actually held responsible.
I've no idea how we will defeat insurgencies in Africa or Latin America if we cannot figure our how we screwed this one up.
Coming in after the Soviets should have been a cakewalk. Instead, we alienated everybody.
That takes real skill and determination. Unlearning those skills will be critical.

[tdracer]

Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence in the current Afghan government.
I'd expect the Taliban to be back in charge by fall.
The good news is that the US removed its people early, so no Viet Nam style helicopters off the roof scenes.

We got the US citizens out, but we left most of those who assisted the US Forces behind - giving them effectively a death sentence once the Taliban is back in charge (and like not a quick death).
Shame on us - and yet the US Government will wonder why people are reluctant to help us...

[NutLoose]

Says it all

https://www.insider.com/afghanistan-photos-before-war-2017-2#kids-grew-up-in-a-safe-environment-free-of-extremist-influence-compared-to-today-15

[Mr N Nimrod]

Says it all

https://www.insider.com/afghanistan-photos-before-war-2017-2#kids-grew-up-in-a-safe-environment-free-of-extremist-influence-compared-to-today-15
really?

added some extra letters to make post long enough

[henra]

In The Times.
Pakistan threatened to shoot down our planes attacking Taliban, claims Kabul (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/26c22b2c-e65f-11eb-a821-58982b1c936d?shareToken=c36a0e54334862f8fc6aba0e7a8db1b1)
Not very neighbourly if true.

This is also one major reason why the Taliban haven't really been defeated. Pakistan is backing them massively and giving them Shelter when being attacked. And has been doing so for years.

[NutLoose]

really?

added some extra letters to make post long enough

It was a peaceful country slowly developing until outside forces came into play.

[ORAC]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/8/taliban-captures-third-provincial-capital-in-three-days

Taliban captures three more Afghan provincial capitals in a day

[ORAC]

Things rapidly falling apart, including the Afghan Air Force - I don’t think a few B-52 air strikes are making much difference

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/afghan-pilots-quit-taliban-take-five-cities-9svhbk0dt

Afghan pilots quit as Taliban take five cities in three days

Afghanistan slid towards collapse yesterday as the Taliban stormed three more cities and pilots deserted the air force after a colleague was murdered.

Five provincial capitals have fallen to the insurgents in three days as militants overran the northern cities of Kunduz, Sar-e Pol and Taloqan. A Taliban offensive (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-sends-gunships-and-bombers-to-beat-back-taliban-pmf3j7wqq) left more than a dozen cities under siege after the dam burst on Friday as the western city of Zaranj fell without a shot being fired.

The northern city of Sheberghan capitulated on Saturday, after days of fighting. Other provincial capitals were on the brink of defeat.

Morale in the air force took a blow on Saturday when a helicopter pilot was killed in Kabul by a bomb attached to his car. The Taliban claimed the murder of Hamidullah Azimi, who was trained to fly US Black Hawks. He was the eighth Afghan pilot to be murdered in recent weeks.

The US-trained air force is pivotal to the defence against the Taliban. One pilot told The Times that at least 19 colleagues had fled the military, fearing assassination.

“I have been flying for ten years,” he said. “From the day I put on my uniform I swore to defend my country until the last drop of blood . . . but seeing my friends assassinated . . . I do not feel safe. I have to change the car I use every single day, borrowing my friends’ cars to drive to work. I can’t spend time outside my home. I can’t go shopping, not even get a haircut, to protect my identity and reduce the risk.”

With no air force the Taliban began to “target and eliminate” Afghan air force pilots. The pilot said that the strategy was working. He urged the government to move personnel and their families to military bases for safety.

“About 19 pilots left the job,” he said. “I am considering leaving my job. If the government can guarantee my family’s safety I will stay on base and fight for ever.”…..

The Afghan defence ministry said a counterattack had begun in Kunduz but its grip on the northern region appears to be slipping. The head of the provincial council for Sar-e Pol confirmed that the capital had fallen and fighting raged in Sheberghan, the capital of Jowzjan province.….

US and Afghan forces launched airstrikes, pounding Taliban positions. One insurgent commander dismissed the attacks from US bases and a carrier in the Gulf. He said: “America spent 20 years in Afghanistan and ultimately fled under a deal to save face. These airstrikes . . . will not last much longer.”….

[NutLoose]

Afghanistan’s air force is a rare U.S.-backed success story. It may soon fail
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-06-18/afghan-air-force-story


https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/afghan-forces-fixing-planes-via-zoom-call.html

[etudiant]

It was a peaceful country slowly developing until outside forces came into play.
Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, said Chairman Mao.
Thus far that looks like a pretty correct call.

[Lookleft]

It reminds me of Vietnam in 1975. A peace deal in name only that was agreed to by one side to buy time and the other just to get the hell out of there. The side that was always going to be staying just waiting to overwhelm government forces that don't have the strength to resist.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The worst thing that could happen to the Taliban is for them to win. Their last go at running the country was an unmitigated disaster. There is reason the 2001 air campaign defeated them in 20 days. They had squandered almost all of their popular support.

The Taliban is ultimately just another outsider supported invading force. They will get their arses kicked like everyone else who tried to upset the natural conglomeration of decentralized provincial ruler model, that has existed in Afghanistan for hundreds of years; in favour of a centralized autonomous governing power.

Plus the vast majority of the Taliban are good at killing people and blowing things up but have none of the actual skills required to run a country. The abject failure of ISIS to hold on to their conquered land is a useful recent example of the strengths and the weaknesses of these kinds of movements.

[Asturias56]

Yup - they lasted about 5 years - bit longer in some areas - basically they 're very much a Pashtun based group . As we've seen other Afghans have a limited tolerance for dominance by "outsiders" - however defined

[Bergerie1]

"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it," George Santayana. I strongy recommend the two books mentioned by skridlov and TakwillaFlyboy:-

The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple

However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.

[RatherBeFlying]

The Frontier Scouts by Charles Chenevix Trench sadly did not get the attention it merited from our leaders.

Bottom line: The Pashtun tribes are ungovernable.

[Haraka]

The Frontier Scouts by Charles Chenevix Trench sadly did not get the attention it merited from our leaders.

Bottom line: The Pashtun tribes are ungovernable.
Even first taught to us as blinking Flight Cadets doing War studies at the Towers in the 60's.
" Never accede to militarily supporting political adventuring in Afghanistan,as the British Army learned to its cost in the last century,that it will never work"
I remember the metaphorical cheer that went up around the U.K. Defence Intelligence community in late '79 when the Soviets went in ,"Now they're for it!"
Little did we appreciate, or even conceive then, that it would be our politicians taking us in next..........

[Vortex Hoop]

The Frontier Scouts by Charles Chenevix Trench sadly did not get the attention it merited from our leaders.

Bottom line: The Pashtun tribes are ungovernable.
Agreed. 'A Million Bullets' is also a good read.

[GlobalNav]

"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it," George Santayana. I strongy recommend the two books mentioned by skridlov and TakwillaFlyboy:-

The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple

However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.

Agreed. Never should have tried/ Though I appreciate the objective of having a stable Afghanistan to bolster security. As hard as it is to swallow, leaving is the right thing. We could be there another 5, 10, or 20 years and not have a different result, except more casualties.

[skridlov]

There's a great deal that could be said about Pakistan's involvement - but seldom is, at least as far as news coverage is concerned. The US government also continues its fan dance where Pakistan (ISI) culpability is concerned. Given that the Taliban's activity has now expanded into large scale conventional unit operations the sheer scale of munitions required to sustain it has grown massively. And yet I don't recall a single news item or documentary that attempts to account for the source, scale or routes of the related supply chain. Its source is Pakistan of course, notionally a US ally...

Up to the last week or so I assumed that the Tajiks would hold out, at least in the Panjshir, as they did last time the Taliban were in Kabul. But news reports suggest that some Tajik units are going over to the Taliban - and of course sealing the border into Tajikistan cuts off that source of support. There's a similar situation in western Afghanistan where the border crossing at Islam Quala was quickly taken and nearby Herat is probably soon to fall. At the moment Mazar is surrounded too. I wonder where General Abdul Rashid Dostum is these days? He was famous for running tanks over captured Talibs or cooking them in transport containers, so I doubt that they're going to welcome him if he decides to perform one of his about-face moves.

The parallels with the US withdrawal from Vietnam are remarkable. US troops withdraw leaving a "well equipped national army" to defend the state. Which army collapses in a matter of weeks.

AlJazeera is the only broadcast channel giving serious coverage to the situation with a few journalists still on the ground there.

[Haraka]

Unfortunately this ongoing dilemma with Pakistani factions can't be sidestepped this time by concocting a few imaginary "Stealth Blackhawks"

[Easy Street]

Our former Foreign Secretary David Miliband was on Radio 4 this morning in his capacity as Head of the International Rescue refugees' charity (the name always makes me laugh). Anyway, he was on about the duty of Western countries to prevent Afghanistan's neighbouring states from becoming overwhelmed by refugees. He mentioned Pakistan as an example of a state needing help. Sadly, the interviewer didn't press the obvious point that maybe the Pakistani deep state should have thought about that while busily undermining everything the West was trying to achieve next door.

[NutLoose]

One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.. The Taliban who will be in the minority can only exert pressure over a town or village if they hold the upper hand, arming everyone in that village would soon put that right.. Mind you it wouldn't be nice to start with, but eventually some sort of peace would endure. ;)

[RatherBeFlying]

One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.:ok:

Tanks and artillery can upset that balance. We have seen that Stingers can counter air power.

Anti-tank missiles could level the playing field.

[etudiant]

One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.. The Taliban who will be in the minority can only exert pressure over a town or village if they hold the upper hand, arming everyone in that village would soon put that right.. Mind you it wouldn't be nice to start with, but eventually some sort of peace would endure. ;)

Sure seems that missionaries teaching love, forgiveness and turning the other cheek might be even more effective over time as well as a lot cheaper, if only they could live long enough.

[Haraka]

Assymetric warfare anybody?
You can't " bomb the bastards back in to the stone age "when that's all they recognise and accept......

[Asturias56]

In fact many of the Taliban positively WANT to be back in 7th Century Arabia..................

[Big Pistons Forever]

The US intelligence community is reportedly giving the the Ghani regime 90 days before Kabul is overrun.

A US supported government that is monstrously corrupt and riddled with incompetence and nepotism rapidly falls after the US leaves. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, the only difference is it will be Blackhawks instead of Hueys evacuating the embassy......

[minigundiplomat]

In fact many of the Taliban positively WANT to be back in 7th Century Arabia..................

we don’t always agree, but that made me laugh mate.

[fitliker]

Some others are reporting Kabul will fall in weeks ? But all reports are in agreement . It is when , not if Kabul falls again .

The support of the Khans and Stans for the Taliban has created a problem . The biggest irony will be when the Taliban seek to reclaim historical Afghanistan from the Areas that the British and Russians carved away from the old Afghanistan borders . Maybe the Russian troops and allies will protect some of the northern Stans for a while . But the Fakirs are playing a long game . They will wait and watch .

The Fakirs will soon be running the show again and partying like it is 1499 . They will be offering free flying lessons from tall buildings in Kabul and public entertainment events in the stadiums once again . Attendance will be compulsory. As the French say “the more things change the more they stay the same “ .

[Widger]

This is all about money and drugs. The Taliban are just the indoctrinated foot soldiers living a lie brought about by the powerful crime cartels in Iran and mainly Pakistan. It includes those powerful individuals who gave Osama protection. This is no different from Pablo Escobar and Columbia, FARC, the Columbian State and the US fight against Cocaine. We may have saved the lives of soldiers by withdrawing, but we will lose more lives on the streets of our towns and cities, through Heroin based crime. The vacuum of authority will also allow extremist views to grow again and we will probably be back bombing in 20 years time.

[GeeRam]

Some others are reporting Kabul will fall in weeks ? But all reports are in agreement . It is when , not if Kabul falls again .


They are much better trained and equipped now than before thanks to all those Western Military training courses and equipment - so we've done a good job of hastening the take-over :rolleyes:

[Less Hair]

Why didn't we just napalm all their poppy farms?

[Ninthace]

Why didn't we just napalm all their poppy farms?
If it is that obvious, why do you think?

[Less Hair]

To not upset our -until very recently- local partners in the fight against the Taliban.

Having trained and equipped incompetent local forces seems to be massively backfiring now.

[Ninthace]

To not upset our -until very recently- local partners in the fight against the Taliban.

Having trained and equipped incompetent local forces seems to be massively backfiring now.
:ok: Almost. Bur not so much to do with indigenous forces as the local folk. In a predominantly rural economy, poppies are lucrative crop for farmers that they have learned to grow over generations. Destroy the crop, they starve and are unlikely to view you favourably when you suggest you they shop the Taliban to you or adopt your strange western ideas of democracy. Since just about all males in that part of the world own a gun, they might just start supporting the bad guys. In fact, given you just destroyed their livelihood, they might even join them.

[Less Hair]

Maybe instead of what we did we should have armed and weapon trained all afghan women?

[Clunk60]

Less Hair, it’s that kind of blue sky thinking that is woefully lacking in our senior military leadership and politicians 😂

[Ninthace]

Maybe instead of what we did we should have armed and weapon trained all afghan women?
Maybe, If you get the chance read "The Places In Between" by Rory Stewart. Rory was a former Army Officer and British MP who also served as a an Administrator in Southern Iraq during the occupation. In the winter of 2001/2 he walked across Afghanistan. The book is the story of the walk and gives a good insight into the area and the people, their attitude to their faith, life and death. You will find it quite eye opening compared with Western values.

[Less Hair]

I have a good friend who went there several times with the military. Another one tried to develop their civil society.

[langleybaston]

Do we, the British, have any vital strategic interests in Afghanistan?

If not, call the last 20 years "water under the bridge", with tragic loss of life, many woundings, PTSD, and the colossal waste of money coming to an end.
Let China and Russia and India and Pakistan do what they will, and keep our [very limited] noses out of it.

Probably simplistic, perhaps I need educating. Or perhaps the politicians need educating.

[Ninthace]

I have a good friend who went there several times with the military. Another one tried to develop their civil society.
Then we have something in common. My son was in the military in Afghanistan as were others of my friends. Fortunately. I never got closer than Kuwait.
Doesn't really advance our understanding of the current situation though, does it?

[Less Hair]

What is happening now is exactly what had been predicted unfortunately. Nothing will remain. Look what was left after the soviets left?
Back to daily terror and blowing up Buddhas with drug clans living their happy life.

[Ninthace]

Probably true, But they are going to run out of Buddhas in time. Then what? Will drug running and perfecting a Sharia state satisfy them? As I said in the other thread on the subject, I reckon eventually they will start to become an international problem, perhaps in the ISIS mould. They may even attract what is left of ISIS to them.

[ORAC]

US official has said additional American troops are being sent to Afghanistan to help remove personnel from the US embassy in Kabul.

Preparing for an opposed evacuation by reinforcing the airport and a road corridor?

[Less Hair]

They seem to want to move most of the embassy to the airport.

[langleybaston]

Evacuation?

One of the most difficult, often practised, sometimes cocked-up, military evolutions was withdrawal on the NW Frontier. John Masters and others describe the meticulous planning and execution and gallantry needed to get it right.

[RatherBeFlying]

In reality, the Taliban put a stop to the opium trade, which was cheerfully revived once the Taliban got the boot (I remember a 2001 photo of a newly shod Northern Alliance platoon marching down a dusty road).

Thank you NinthAce for the reference to Rory Stewart's The Places in Between​​​​​​, a fine read.

[AnglianAV8R]

UK to deploy 600 troops to assist UK nationals get out.

[RAFEngO74to09]

Pentagon spokesman getting a hard time right now trying to explain to correspondents why additional 3,000 US troops going into region - in addition to 3,500 already there - to be on standby to secure Kabul Airport, evacuation of the US Embassy (if necessary) and processing former Afghan interpreters seeking exit.

[Ninthace]

UK to deploy 600 troops to assist UK nationals get out.
Telegraph says 600 paratroops. Shirley a job for the Rock Apes? I mean, it's bound to involve an airfield? :)

[downsizer]

Shirley a job for the Rock Apes? I mean, it's bound to involve an airfield? :)

EFI shop not open to guard yet.....

I'll get my coat.

[etudiant]

Pentagon spokesman getting a hard time right now trying to explain to correspondents why additional 3,000 US troops going into region - in addition to 3,500 already there - to be on standby to secure Kabul Airport, evacuation of the US Embassy (if necessary) and processing former Afghan interpreters seeking exit.

Given this demonstration of the US willingness to fold them when necessary, I'd think, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan would be reconsidering their need for a nuclear backstop.
This might get messy.

[ORAC]

Kandahar has fallen - second largest city in the country….

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/taliban-afghanistan-kandahar-control-latest-b1901826.html

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1425926622696333316?s=20

[Baldeep Inminj]

I am very sad, dejected, and slightly lost to read that after the recent withdrawal of forces, and the immediate taliban resurgence, the UK and USA are going to commit forces purely for the purpose of evacuating their embassies.

That looks, feels and smells like a surrender to me.

The Taliban said they would wait for a thousand years if they had to and when we left they would rule again. Countless empires failed to defeat them and our aggressive predecessors, Russia, failed recently,

Was this a political vanity project always doomed to failure?

[Ninthace]

It seems the Taliban have been around since about 1978 and are in part a US product

”About 90,000 Afghans, including Mohammed Omar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Omar), were trained by Pakistan's ISI during the 1980s.[105] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#cite_note-Price-105)British professor Carole Hillenbrand (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carole_Hillenbrand) concluded that the Taliban have arisen from those US-Saudi-Pakistan-supported mujahideen: "The West helped the Taliban to fight the Soviet takeover of Afghanistan"”

Does this count as an own goal or do we give it to Pakistan with a Western assist?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban

[RAFEngO74to09]

Flights out are going to be military now

US Sending 3,000 Troops to Protect Diplomats in Kabul - Air Force Magazine (https://www.airforcemag.com/us-sending-3000-troops-protect-american-diplomats-afghanistan/)

[RatherBeFlying]

The last survivor of the 1842 retreat from Kabul. It seems a fitting time to post the painting.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/768x430/image_87c129ad9f7778bf88acab20e9eee2e9ce0977ff.png

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-first-anglo-afghan-war-195101

[jolihokistix]

Not a defeat at all, even if the invading Taliban would like to portray it that way. A merciless Sunni Pashtun band of leaders in exile negotiate some guarantees and then force their rule over all other ethnic tribes and religions in the land. A sad day for their people and for most of the world to observe.

For 20 years we tried our best to help the people of Afghanistan, and we can leave with a clear conscience on that score. Imagine if we hadn't.
(The timing and manner of closure is untidy and reflects badly, though.) What more could we have done for them? Perhaps the international community failed to win hearts and minds?

[Load Toad]

...well someone taught the Mujahideen how to use the weapons it sold them..

Didn't an author using the pseudonym Gaz Hunter explain his part in this in the 1999 book 'The Shooting Gallery'?

[Big Pistons Forever]

This whole mess occurred because politicians don’t understand the difference between what they want vs what is possible.

They wanted a Western style democracy, but what was possible was eliminating the threat to the West by defeating the Taliban and then leaving Afghanistan to be run by the Afghan people in the traditional way.

As soon as the politicians started talking about “nation building” in 2003, the war was lost

[tcasblue]

If the Taliban gets in and they are not giving support to terrorist organizations,
Then we have won.

I really don’t care about their human rights(and neither do you, even if you say differently). I care about not having terrorist attacks.

I am sure once the Taliban take over, the new leaders can be made well aware of that.

[minigundiplomat]

It all goes back to unclear purpose and objectives.

Yet another reason for Tony Blair to be nailed to a cross and crucified.

[Thaihawk]

It all goes back to unclear purpose and objectives.

Yet another reason for Tony Blair to be nailed to a cross and crucified.

After the debacle of British losses in the 19th century in Afghanistan, the writing was on the wall as what would eventually happen after the 2001 invasion.

With the American pull-out in Vietnam 50 years ago, and now the Afghan pull-out, Western-and especially American credibility is in tatters.

The Chinese and Russians will be taking notes.

Blair became very rich-allegedly as a result of being Dubya's poodle in 2001. A vile and corrupt politician of the first order.

[GeeRam]

Blair became very rich-allegedly as a result of being Dubya's poodle in 2001. A vile and corrupt politician of the first order.

He did (nothing allegedly about that) and he is.....but plenty of utterly blinkered people still put him up on a pedestal as some sort of hero....:ugh:

[ORAC]

I think it’s fai4 to say that the British defence establishment, including the minister Ben Wallace, arent happy having been put in this position by Biden.

The interviews of Wallace and Mercer on Sky this morning didn’t pull any punches - and Tom Tugendhat, Chair if the HoC Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote a long Twitter thread on the consequences last night.

One of the widely reported consequences is the lack of trust in the reliability of the USA by their allies such as Korea and Japan. That seems to apply in part to the UK..

https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-biden-afghanistan-pullout-mistake/

https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1425919651469565955?s=20

[DogTailRed2]

I came across a memorial to British soldiers lost during the conflict in Afghanistan in Reading.
Names like Kandahar caught my attention. Funny I thought "They were quick to place this memorial?".
Then I noticed the dates. 1800's. I guess we never really left in the first place.

The withdrawal worries me. Shades of airlifting people of the Embassy during the last days of Vietnam.
What worries me more is when we inevitably return and loose more lives re-taking the territory we just surrendered.

You can't win in Afghanistan because there is nothing to win. Just miles of rocky, featureless terrain held by thousands of deidcated, featureless enemy.

I look forward to the innevitable influx of refugees from Afghanistan that we created.
We never seem to learn do we?

[a_ross84]

Not a defeat at all, even if the invading Taliban would like to portray it that way. A merciless Sunni Pashtun band of leaders in exile negotiate some guarantees and then force their rule over all other ethnic tribes and religions in the land. A sad day for their people and for most of the world to observe.

For 20 years we tried our best to help the people of Afghanistan, and we can leave with a clear conscience on that score. Imagine if we hadn't.
(The timing and manner of closure is untidy and reflects badly, though.) What more could we have done for them? Perhaps the international community failed to win hearts and minds?


Clear conscience... That's a joke. Thousands of troops dead. Countless civilians dead.

[Asturias56]

"I came across a memorial to British soldiers lost during the conflict in Afghanistan in Reading."

The Lion Memorial to the men of the 66th (Berkshire) Regiment killed at Maiwand 27th July 1880 - this wasn't a "guerrilla" battle but a full on pitched battle between regular soldiers on both sides

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1365x768/20210226_145857_medium__1010be46fa3744734f4876d706721adddd39 3c44.jpg

[Asturias56]

"The interviews of Wallace and Mercer on Sky this morning didn’t pull any punches - and Tom Tugendhat, Chair if the HoC Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote a long Twitter thread on the consequences last night."

I'm sure the Afghan Govt would be happy if the UK steps up to replace the US - otherwise it's just grandstanding

[Mr N Nimrod]

Not a defeat at all, even if the invading Taliban would like to portray it that way. A merciless Sunni Pashtun band of leaders in exile negotiate some guarantees and then force their rule over all other ethnic tribes and religions in the land. A sad day for their people and for most of the world to observe.

you may not see it as a defeat. Personally, I do, along I think with many others.

But whatever, it was a horrendous waste of British lives.

[langleybaston]

it's just grandstanding

and impossible.

Walk away, don't look back.

[Una Due Tfc]

I think you missed Dorfs point. He was pointing out that it was 'American lives" lost, rather than lives of soldiers from other nations that also got dragged in, or of course other humans, which are less important, obviously.

Didn't Canada lose more soldiers per capita than anyone else in Afghanistan?

[Vortex Hoop]

I came across a memorial to British soldiers lost during the conflict in Afghanistan in Reading.
Names like Kandahar caught my attention. Funny I thought "They were quick to place this memorial?".
Then I noticed the dates. 1800's. I guess we never really left in the first place.

The withdrawal worries me. Shades of airlifting people of the Embassy during the last days of Vietnam.
What worries me more is when we inevitably return and loose more lives re-taking the territory we just surrendered.

You can't win in Afghanistan because there is nothing to win. Just miles of rocky, featureless terrain held by thousands of deidcated, featureless enemy.

I look forward to the innevitable influx of refugees from Afghanistan that we created.
We never seem to learn do we?I heard a tale about 10 years ago, that when British troops pitched up in Maiwand in a relaxed posture with an obvious 'hearts and minds approach, the village elders were initially nervous.

When conversation began to flow through a 'terp, they revealed they were nervous because they saw the union flags and assumed the British were back to avenge their losses at the Battle of Maiwand, 1880!

As the Taliban said - they have all the time...

[skua]

Well worth reading Tugendhat's Twitter thread.
Clearly he is far too sensible to be a Cabinet minister.

[Widger]

Whilst ORAC did start this thread to look at post 2021, it is worth looking back as well. The UK govt were never fully committed to this campaign and were unwilling to spend the money to make it a real success. Contrast this with the money wasted on track and trace, which would have gone a long way. This is not a critique of any colour of politician's cloth as they are all guilty and Tony Bliar's escapade in Iraq, hanging on the coat-tails of Dubya, took away much needed focus and resource from where it was needed more.

Already mentioned on here are the previous 'wars' the UK has been involved in and I also commend the book by William Dalrymple even if it is a hard read at times. That book also exposes that those early escapades could have been successful were it not for some big tactical errors by some of the commanders at the time, including camping outside Kabul in a very poor defensive situation. Even then, engagement with local rulers, or warlords was the game, one that largely worked in India but was poorly exercised in Afghanistan.

If we go back even earlier we can learn from the Romans as well. How did a small group of people manage to hold sway for a hundred years over such a large area. Again it was through not only military force and expertise but also engagement with local chiefs. When the Romans withdrew from places such as Britannia, the dark ages began and we can arguably see that happening again across parts of the world including Afghanistan. I am a fan of democracy but there is a lot to be said for some form of dictatorship, noting the harm that this exercises on those who disagree with the leadership.

There is clearly no appetite in the Western world to put more boots on the ground in this country and so, containment must be the aim. There is a clear argument that pressure need to be put on countries such as Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who fund the Madrassas, which espouse an extreme view of what is a peaceful religion. I note that Pakistan has also lost huge numbers of troops in areas such as the Kashmir and border areas. It is the criminal element that needs to be contained, to cut off the heads of the snakes to prevent heroin being shipped to Europe. We need to support and nurture those more enlightened who have fled their country, so that in time, they may be in a position to exert pressure on group such as the Taliban and unite the tribes. Where will the next Lion of the Panshir come from? We need to take a leaf out of the Chinese book and look at the long game, although I despair that Western Politics, are too short term for any such philanthropic viewpoint.


We know this also. The values we believe in should shine through what we do in Afghanistan.

To the Afghan people we make this commitment. The conflict will not be the end. We will not walk away, as the outside world has done so many times before.

Tony Bliar Brighton, 2001

[Vortex Hoop]

In the inevitable fallout and navel gazing which follows this atrocious withdrawal and capitulation, maybe 'The West' should focus on who supported AQ and the Taliban!

Saudi and Pakistan...

[Ninthace]

As the Taliban said - they have all the time...
Since they are, in historic terms, a recent creation, they have not had to wait that long,

[Ninthace]

In the inevitable fallout and navel gazing which follows this atrocious withdrawal and capitulation, maybe 'The West' should focus on who supported AQ and the Taliban!

Saudi and Pakistan...You might not want to dig too deep into the origins of the Taliban and their precursors - the Islamic mujahideen. Look up (Operation Cyclone (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone))
As ye sow......

[Vortex Hoop]

Since they are, in historic terms, a recent creation, they have not had to wait that long,
Recent creation? They ARE the Mujahiddin! They have a 'corporate memory' stretching back to Alexander the Great.

[Ninthace]

Recent creation? They ARE the Mujahiddin! They have a 'corporate memory' stretching back to Alexander the Great.

No.

The Taliban are a faction that grew out of the Islamic mujahideen. The term was not heard until the early 90s
The word mujahideen, in turn, is the term used for the collective groups that fought the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They date from around 1978/9.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mujahideen-of-afghanistan-195373

The term mujahideen means "defenders of the faith", in ths case, Islam. Alexander the Great lived 365BC to 323BC. According to tradition, the prophet Muhammad began to receive the divine revelations in 610AD so Islam could not have existed before that date, so there woiud be no faith to defend.

Whatever corporate memory there is in Afghanistan, it has precious little to do with either the Taliban or the mujahideen. It predates both of them. The memory, such as it is, is born by the all people generally, both the Taliban amd the non Taliban alike.

[Easy Street]

Well worth reading Tugendhat's Twitter thread.
Clearly he is far too sensible to be a Cabinet minister.

James Clapper (former USAF Lt Gen and Obama's intelligence director) was on Radio 4 at lunchtime and told it how it is. Having seen Biden up close and personal as VP, he said this moment has been telegraphed and this outcome has been inevitable for well over a decade, under three successive US presidents. I'll try to find it on BBC Sounds and post a link. (Edit: here (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000ynbl), 27:30 in)

The choice facing Trump and then Biden was not a simple stay or go. There was no status quo stay option; the only alternative to 'go' was 'escalate' as the Taliban resurgence would have eventually forced the West to resume a full combat role. It is frankly embarrassing to hear Ben Wallace trying to drop 100% of the blame on the US by claiming that he tried to rally the international community to support a continuing presence and pointing the finger at Trump, which he thinks allows him a free hit.

I heard Tugendhat on the radio. He offers no credible end state and in the light of the above his argument boils down to a straightforward sunk cost fallacy. Sorry to be blunt but having served on HERRICK I feel entitled to be.

Now, expect political and academic recriminations as the 'interventionist' foreign policy lobby tries to blame and heap moral shame on the 'realist' lobby for pushing (and winning the argument for) withdrawal. To me that's like an arsonist blaming and shaming the fire brigade for causing water damage.

[Asturias56]

"They are obviously sponsored and advised by somebody. Your local gang of mudfighters would not move coordinated like they do. "

the same folk thrashed the British several times and the Russians in the days before "hearts & minds" - they seem quite well able to take care of themselves

Much the same in the Yemen - just stay away

[Easy Street]

Eminent strategist and Iraq Inquiry panellist Lawrence Freedman just retweeted this cogent thread, which captures the essence of the matter. Fingers crossed our leaders can ride out the storm of naive outrage without getting drawn back into the morass.

https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1426263621018038274
https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1426270212882640904

[Vortex Hoop]

No.

The Taliban are a faction that grew out of the Islamic mujahideen. The term was not heard until the early 90s
The word mujahideen, in turn, is the term used for the collective groups that fought the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They date from around 1978/9.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mujahideen-of-afghanistan-195373

The term mujahideen means "defenders of the faith", in ths case, Islam. Alexander the Great lived 365BC to 323BC. According to tradition, the prophet Muhammad began to receive the divine revelations in 610AD so Islam could not have existed before that date, so there woiud be no faith to defend.

Whatever corporate memory there is in Afghanistan, it has precious little to do with either the Taliban or the mujahideen. It predates both of them. The memory, such as it is, is born by the all people generally, both the Taliban amd the non Taliban alike.
No. You seem to continually misunderstand the situation.

The 'term' Taliban' (literally "student") may be a newish incarnation to our ears, but they are the same people (if maybe 30 years older) as the Muj, with the same strategy, tactics and support from the Pakistani ISI. They are the same Pashtun tribesmen who formed the Muj.

If it helps your understanding, think of them as Trigger's broom: the same body politic, with the same hatred of foreigners and mistrust of Kabul handed down through the DNA, with regular rotation of body parts.

[fitliker]

If you look at the old maps of the Afghani Empire in the 12th century . The maps are almost identical to where their present supporters reside .
What is old is new again . As for the eighteenth century point of view about Afghanistan being the grave of Empires , it might seem one of those graves was the old Afghani Empire .
I am starting to think that Kabul is a clever ambush being set up by those military geniuses who wear a lot of brass and sit on PhDs in modern warfare . As they say in Fort Benning if your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush

Kabul will not be as important as the fight for the water of the Indus River.

[Ninthace]

No. You seem to continually misunderstand the situation.

The 'term' Taliban' (literally "student") may be a newish incarnation to our ears, but they are the same people (if maybe 30 years older) as the Muj, with the same strategy, tactics and support from the Pakistani ISI. They are the same Pashtun tribesmen who formed the Muj.

If it helps your understanding, think of them as Trigger's broom: the same body politic, with the same hatred of foreigners and mistrust of Kabul handed down through the DNA, with regular rotation of body parts.

I think we are in agreement. If you read my last paragraph again.. I make the same point. They pre date modern incarnations with modern names.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/alibunkallsky/status/1426249177873461249?s=21

[ORAC]

Reading the press Biden is getting in the neck across the US media with comparisons to the fall of Saigon widespread.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/raf-ready-to-airlift-britons-from-afghanistan-gn22xc69v

RAF ready to airlift Britons from Afghanistan

RAF airplanes are on standby as Britain faces a “race against time” to evacuate thousands of British and Afghan citizens from Afghanistan before the Taliban take over the country.….

Commercial flights were yesterday packed with people attempting to leave the country as panic-stricken Afghans and foreigners crammed into Kabul’s international airport. There are concerns that the airport will become a prime target of the Taliban offensive (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taliban-advance-on-kabul-after-taking-kandahar-8bpwx37rg).

Members of the 16 Air Assault Brigade will be sent to Afghanistan this weekend ready to assist with the evacuation. The Home Office is also deploying officials to help speed up visa requests for Afghan citizens.

While ministers say they are confident that they will be able to get Britons out of Afghanistan in time, one source said it would be “highly challenging”. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said: “Protecting British nationals and ensuring their safety as they leave Afghanistan is our top priority, which is why we are commencing Operation Pitting, for which our military are very well prepared….

Every flight scheduled in Kabul yesterday was leaving the Afghan capital. Around the perimeter of the airport, which is three miles from the centre of the city, layer after layer of heavy security checked vehicles and passengers’ tickets. Among the troops, the mood was tense…..

“Lots of security guards were there, and many checkpoints,” said Elham Ullah Khan, a Kabul resident who was putting his wife on a Turkish Airlines flight to the US yesterday. “Most of the passengers were not ordinary people, they were senior officials and foreigners with their own security,” he said. “Afghan officials were there with their families, trying to get out.”

Airlines and the Afghan government have urged people without tickets not to go to the airport, but that has not stopped many from turning up in search of a seat on any flight.….

[Asturias56]

If you look at the old maps of the Afghani Empire in the 12th century . The maps are almost identical to where their present supporters reside .
What is old is new again . As for the eighteenth century point of view about Afghanistan being the grave of Empires , it might seem one of those graves was the old Afghani Empire .
I am starting to think that Kabul is a clever ambush being set up by those military geniuses who wear a lot of brass and sit on PhDs in modern warfare . As they say in Fort Benning if your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush

Kabul will not be as important as the fight for the water of the Indus River.

Afghanistan has always been pretty much the same size as you point out. The surrounding "empires" (Russia, Persia, Arab, China, Sikh, British etc) have always tried to chip bits off or take it over but really have never succeeded.

Lots of money, liberally and regularly dispersed to the various tribal entities, seems the best way of keeping some sort of peace & quiet ( a very relative term in those parts)

[Easy Street]

Reading the press Biden is getting in the neck across the US media with comparisons to the fall of Saigon widespread.


He will (and must) ride it out. Not many in the US, least of all Biden, would argue that the US was wrong to abandon Vietnam when it did.

[ORAC]

Opinion piece by Tom Tugendhat in a Middle East journal. Pretty close to the bone for a politician who is the Chair of the HoC Foreign Affairs Committee.

It is not the only mention I have seen if this being a “Suez moment” either. It would seem the UK policy of being an obedient junior partner* to US Middle East policy may have reached an end and that McMillan’s declaration that, “We would rather be wrong together than right separately”.

Successive UK governments delivered on that promise over the years up Blair and Cameron over Afghanistan and Iraq, till Cameron finally failed to win support from the HoC over support requested by the USA concerning Syria. I cannot foresee any future PM risking the political capital to do so again.

* https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/OutputFile/779777

https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2021/08/14/if-kabul-falls-it-will-be-americas-suez-moment/

If Kabul falls, it will be America's 'Suez moment'

Can Washington maintain the mantle of global leadership?

[Easy Street]

Commentary drawing on Suez and Macmillan is just selective, emotionally incontinent straw-clutching. Wilson's decision not to follow the US into Vietnam didn't harm the transatlantic relationship in the long term, any more than Paris is still in the doghouse over Iraq. And IIRC the Cold War went pretty well for the US after Saigon, you know, when it stopped pouring resource and political capital down into a SE Asian black hole and concentrated on winning the arms race directly.

Funny how it's so easy for the commentariat and interventionist scholars to call for "low cost" presence when it's never their personal interests or families at stake. Tens of billions of dollars, the bending out of shape of NATO forces, 10s-100s of Western deaths/serious injuries, 1000s-10000s of Afghan security forces deaths, and 1000s-10000s of civilian deaths per year is not "low cost".

Prof Patrick Porter lectures on realism at UK Staff College... read his Twitter thread @patrickporter76 (https://mobile.twitter.com/PatPorter76), he's knocking down the arguments against withdrawal like nine-pins.

Edit: I was just reflecting that the reported accommodation between the Taliban and China, not to interfere in suppression of the Uighur Muslims, is potentially a powerful counter-narrative for the West to use at home against the universalist claims of militant Islam and thereby to discredit jihadi recruiters. "Look, jihadis don't give a toss about their co-religionists, they're only interested in promoting their narrow political interests where they sense weakness".

[ORAC]

Hopefully they’ll arrive in time - the fall of Kabul is looking more like. 90 hours than 90 days….

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-troops-arrive-afghan-capital-assist-evacuations-2021-08-14/

KABUL, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani said he was in urgent talks with local leaders and international partners as Taliban rebels pushed closer to Kabul, capturing a key town south of the capital that is one of the gateways to the city.….

He spoke soon after the insurgents took Pul-e-Alam, the capital of Logar province that is 70 km (40 miles) south of Kabul, according to a local provincial council member. The Taliban did not face much resistance, the provincial council member told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The gain of the city, a key staging post for a potential assault on Kabul, comes a day after the insurgents took the country's second- and third-biggest cities.

American troops have begun flying in to Kabul to help in the evacuation of embassy personnel and other civilians, a U.S. official said.

The Pentagon has said two battalions of Marines and one infantry battalion will arrive in Kabul by Sunday evening, involving about 3,000 troops…. An infantry brigade combat team will also move out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Kuwait to act as a quick reaction force for security in Kabul if needed, the Pentagon has said.

Britain and several other Western nations are also sending troops as resistance from Afghan government forces crumbles and fears grow that an assault on Kabul could be just days away……

Some embassies have begun to burn sensitive material ahead of evacuating, diplomats said.

The U.S. embassy in the Afghan capital informed staff that burn bins and an incinerator were available to destroy material including papers and electronic devices to "reduce the amount of sensitive material on the property," according to an advisory seen by Reuters…..

[fitliker]

Afghanistan has always been pretty much the same size as you point out. The surrounding "empires" (Russia, Persia, Arab, China, Sikh, British etc) have always tried to chip bits off or take it over but really have never succeeded.

Lots of money, liberally and regularly dispersed to the various tribal entities, seems the best way of keeping some sort of peace & quiet ( a very relative term in those parts)

The maps I was referring were of the 12th century Afghani empire not 18th century AfghaniSTAN a more modern remnant of the Afghani Empire. The Afghani Empire was on both sides of the Indus River from the Arabian Sea to the mountains and all of the tributaries of the River Indus . The Afghani Empire predates Afghanistan , India , Pakistan and the modern borders and boundaries . The Tribal affiliations are very similar and the Area of the old Afghani Empire watershed is now being disputed by three nuclear armed countries . Water disputes are going to get more dangerous as the world warms . The Nile dams are creating similar threats as the Indus River threats to peace .

Orac is probably right again . The end is hours away , not weeks or months . I thought it might be a clever ploy , but it is beginning to look like Saigon 2.

My apologies , I am having trouble finding the links to the old maps that I was referencing , and nothing about them in my Chambers Dictionary of History . So it cannot be important .

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britons-flee-afghanistan-as-taliban-close-in-q99sth9bz

Britain prepares to end diplomatic mission in Afghanistan as Taliban close on Kabul

Britain is to abandon its diplomatic presence in Afghanistan as the Taliban surged to within seven miles of Kabul, sparking fears in Whitehall that the capital could be overrun in “a few days”.

Senior government sources said the UK would evacuate its ambassador and staff, and would no longer maintain an embassy outpost there.

The full extent of the British withdrawal became clear amid a swift Taliban advance. The fighters were clashing with the Afghan army just outside the capital, where western forces have set up a defensive perimeter at the airport….

Whitehall officials who began the weekend saying the withdrawal would be complete by August 31 and ended it with a senior source warning: “The fear is the airport will not hold for more than a few days.”.

A second added: “The majority of the evacuation will have to be done by the RAF. We will not maintain a diplomatic presence. There is no trust the Taliban will honour any assurances.”….

British troops were evacuating key nationals and setting up a processing centre to help 5,500 people escape.

The embassy staff are part of a contingent of 500 British government employees who need to leave Kabul. When cabinet ministers met in the Cobra emergency committee on Friday they were told that between 1,800 and 2,000 interpreters and their families also needed rescuing.

A further 3,000 “entitled personnel”, who include British and dual passport holders, some of whom work for security companies or aid organisations, are also included — although just 450 have registered an interest in leaving.

Military sources describe the evacuation operation as “high risk” and there are fears troops could come under Taliban attack or civil unrest could engulf the city. Possible threats include Taliban suicide bombers attempting to infiltrate the airport, civilians overwhelming the airport demanding to get on planes, or an airport crash closing the runway.

Another 2,000 people with some links to Britain could request safe passage. Military and intelligence sources say that as the evacuation nears its end and Kabul comes under attack there will be increasing requests from Afghan soldiers, intelligence agents and politicians for seats on RAF planes. The fate of Hamid Karzai, the former president, is of particular concern.

“Lots of British military personnel, diplomats and intelligence officials are seriously invested in Afghanistan and there is high-level pressure on ministers to provide hundreds of our key allies with sanctuary,” said a senior military source.

“We are not talking about some interpreters or the embassy cooks here. The SAS trained the Afghan special forces and MI6 has hundreds of allies across the local intelligence agencies. They want these people brought out and offering them sanctuary could be the key ensuring the evacuation runs smoothly as things start to break down in Kabul,” the source said.

Senior military sources say the Home Office is reluctant to give many of these people asylum because of the message it will send to other refugees. The collapse of Afghanistan is expected to lead to a wave of hundreds of thousands heading out of the country, helped on their way by hostile states such as Iran and Russia’s central Asian allies…..

[gums]

Salute!

The so-called "collapse" is only another failure by "western" democracies to engage in "nation building".

This new failure is not what happened in VietNam, although we may see helo extractions at the end game as we did back in 1975.

The only comparison that sticks is that too much "help' creates dependency, and it also provides a great cash flow for the warlords and corrupt poly-tickians.

Gums sends...

[ORAC]

Kabul now the only city left in government hands.

https://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan-taliban-seize-jalalabad-without-a-fight-kabul-is-now-the-only-big-city-that-it-does-not-control-12382021

Taliban seizes Jalalabad without a fight - Kabul is now the only big city that it does not control

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1426782621657337856?s=20

[ORAC]

Sky reporting the Taliban are now in the outskirts of Kabul.

Some Taliban leaders reported as saying their men have been instructed to not interfere with those trying to evacuate - but it’s not a cohesive force taking orders to that extent - and the6 are also reporting that they are instructing all women to go to “protected areas”, whatever that means.

[ORAC]

Sky reporting Taliban now within 3km of the presidential palace. Afghan army seem to have abandoned their posts.

Also reporting that senior ministers were seen leaving the city in cars this morning and multiple helicopter movements and activity around the palace, embassies etc.

No fighting or shooting and the Taliban seem to be in small groups. Correspondent made the comment it seemed more of a capitulation than a battle.

[ORAC]

Sky reporting US embassy being evacuated. Showing live footage of a constant stream of CH-47s and Blackhawks flying in and out of the compound.

https://apnews.com/e1ed33fe0c665ee67ba132c51b8e32a5

[skridlov]

"transitional government"
Sure, the Taliban are going to negotiate... It's a total defeat and the notion that they're a "reformed" movement is the worst kind of wishful thinking. An interview with one of their fighters in Kandahar included the following (I paraphrase): "The jihad will not be over until Islam conquers the whole world". This is a political movement based on Pashtun village religious culture with grandiose ambitions. It will once again attract maniacs from all over the planet. We are not done with Afghanistan.

[AnglianAV8R]

JUST IN - Kabul on the verge of fall. Taliban on their way to the presidential palace for the "transfer of power" (AP)

JUST IN - Afghanistan's president Ghani is relinquishing power. Interim "government" led by the Taliban to be formed.

Taliban commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar to become president of Afghanistan.

Taliban commander: "It's our belief that one day mujahideen will have victory, and Islamic law will come not to just Afghanistan, but all over the world. We are not in a hurry. We believe it will come one day. Jihad will not end until the last day."

[extralite]

Chalk that up as another victory for Americans to add to their long list since.the one they co-chaired in 1945

[ORAC]

Downing St has asked the Speaker to recall Parliament so that MPs can be briefed in the situation and can question ministers on their plans.

Matters to be discussed will include the matter of which Aghan local employees should be offered asylum.

[Easy Street]

"The jihad will not be over until Islam conquers the whole world". This is a political movement based on Pashtun village religious culture with grandiose ambitions. It will once again attract maniacs from all over the planet. We are not done with Afghanistan.

We are done with propping up a puppet regime while trying to democratise the political culture (spot the contradiction in terms?). Islamist cranks can base themselves in Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, etc etc: there's nothing special about Afghanistan that means the West must occupy it forever. Yes OBL took sanctuary there in the 1990s, but it is no longer the 1990s. Surveillance and counter-terrorism capabilities have moved on. The global strategic situation has changed beyond recognition and the West's priorities have rightly changed. Pakistan and China are probably wondering why it took us so long to bail. They are not so dumb that they will now sit by and allow Afghanistan-based groups to wreak havoc. Pakistan is about to lose the leverage it held over the West for access to Afghanistan and will not want to risk economic sanctions by tacitly supporting terror. Its interest in Afghanistan is limited to denial of Indian influence, which it has achieved. And while China has reportedly cut a deal with the Taliban to prevent interference with the suppression of Uighur Muslims, Beijing will undoubtedly be wary of the potential for "rogue" universalist Islamist groups to gain a foothold, and labours under few of the constraints which have hampered the Western intervention. The vital interests of the neighbouring powers align closely enough to the West's that we should leave it to them to sort out.

[skridlov]

Afghanistan has long been a proxy location for the conflict between Pakistan and India however that's not the whole issue. They have their own Taliban, the TTP, which, like the Afghan version, is a creature of the ISI. There is a powerful strain of fundamentalism in Pakistani society, predominantly in the Pashtun region, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that it will become stronger - particularly with an Islamic emirate on their border.
As for the range of possible venues for the "jihadi" diaspora to enact their fantasies, there are plenty available. However the example of an insurgency that has defeated 20 years of the USA's efforts to drag a primitive culture into the present is going to be an irresistible lure.
Although it's currently forbidden to acknowledge the fact, the whole problem of "Islamic fundamentalism" is inherent in the very basis of the religion.

[Ninthace]

16:50 BBC reports Kabul Airport being under fire

[langleybaston]

Don't the regiment have Force Protection duty?
One assumes our relief aircraft must use the airport?

And is Brize runway still partially u/s?

BJ seems well behind the curve.

[NutLoose]

Oooh Dear, this will be Biden’s legacy, helicopters evacuating an Embassy just like Vietnam, Trump stitched him up royally into this course of action knowing full well the public wouldn’t like a reversal and the US staying on.

Runway is serviceable LB.

[langleybaston]

Oooh Dear, this will be Biden’s legacy, helicopters evacuating an Embassy just like Vietnam, Trump stitched him up royally into this course of action knowing full well the public wouldn’t like a reversal and the US staying on.

Runway is serviceable LB.

Thank you.
We have idiot MPs saying we should have stayed, even when US leaves. What planet do they live on?
Have our "600 paras" pitched up yet? Mighty quiet on that score.

[RatherBeFlying]

Here in Canada Trudeau promised to accept up to 20,000 Afghan interpreters and other employees serving Canada along with their families.

Just how they will make it out of Afghanistan as the Taliban waltzes into Kabul today in one piece is a total mystery:confused:

Oh yes, they need unexpired passports - good luck getting the Taliban to issue fresh passports:}

​​​There's also a bunch of other documents required - good luck getting them from the Taliban.

​​​Then a digital form must be filled out in a collapsed state with intermittent electricity and internet.

Canada promised to accept White Helmets from Syria, but many are still stuck in refugee camps in Jordan for the last three years while Canadian bureaucracy is navel gazing:mad:

[DODGYOLDFART]

LB Where else would you expect BJ to be but behind the curve? Time for a new leader I fear!

My thoughts are both with those that are stuck in Afghan and those that now have the task of getting them out.

[DogTailRed2]

I'm reading a lot about the US, then the British abandoning Afghanistan but what of our Allies?
On LBC radio today a reporter stated that
"A senior British commander (name escapes me) had asked some of the other nations in Afghanistan to support the British with a view to staying put. None would support the UK. As Britian is no longer the power it once was standing alone was not a viable option.".
Doesn't look like anyone else wants to stay either. Seems all countries are seeing the US withdrawal as a way of getting out of what has become a long term situation.

[Easy Street]

Oooh Dear, this will be Biden’s legacy, helicopters evacuating an Embassy just like Vietnam, Trump stitched him up royally into this course of action knowing full well the public wouldn’t like a reversal and the US staying on.

It won't be Biden's legacy, any more than Saigon is Ford's. Saigon was one factor among several that led to Ford losing the 1976 election, but when people think about Vietnam mistakes now it's LBJ and to an extent JFK that come to mind. No-one credibly argues that Nixon or Ford made the wrong strategic calls in scaling back and eventually withdrawing. Afghanistan will be part of the dismal Bush legacy.

Obama, Trump and Biden all spoke out against the war in their election campaigns. Obama's subsequent surge and the failure of State and Defense departments to plan properly for withdrawal, despite the April 2021 deadline, the Taliban's creeping gains throughout rural Afghanistan *and the very clear intent of three successive presidents* show clearly the undemocratic nature of US foreign policy. What is the point of trying to impose democracy abroad while consistently ignoring your own polity's wishes? The US intelligence, foreign policy and army* establishments have been shown to have been grievously wrong in their understanding of the situation and their advice on how to proceed. (The UK is equally guilty here, General Carter almost comically so in the Times last week, and Ben Wallace thrashing around trying to cobble together a coalition). Even as the Taliban approached Kabul these discredited lobbies were attempting to force a reversal by orchestrating criticism of Biden and Trump's decisions. Biden was right to call time, and I believe that once the undeniable shame of the botched withdrawal has receded, history will judge him kindly for practising (not imposing) democracy.

* Yes, I did say 'army'. A period of silence would be welcomed from a generation of generals, on both sides of the Atlantic, who exploited the conflict to secure primacy in inter-service battles for funding, senior appointments and political influence. If they understood the hopelessness of the task, they either lacked the moral courage to speak truth to power or were guilty of the deepest cynicism. If they didn't understand it, they were either hopelessly naive or weren't listening to their people. None of those possibilities reflect well on them. I also find it regrettable that we have veterans of the conflict chairing our parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defence committees; their comments in recent days have shown more in the way of emotional investment than strategic perspective.

[Watson1963]

Published Friday. Might be of interest.
"Withdrawal of military forces in Afghanistan and its implications for peace"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9241/
​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Don't the regiment have Force Protection duty?
One assumes our relief aircraft must use the airport?


https://twitter.com/pinstripedline/status/1426670157942988805?s=21

[etudiant]

Published Friday. Might be of interest.
"Withdrawal of military forces in Afghanistan and its implications for peace"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9241/
​​​​​​

Simple quality control, the summary says:'Fresh intelligence assessments suggest that Kabul could fall in a month to 90 days.'
The document is dated Aug 13, Kabul is gone by Aug 15th, so even this emergency study was really clueless about how unfit the Afghan armed forces really are.
These apparently shared delusions among all the western powers who invested blood and treasure in this venture really need to be understood so they can be dispelled more effectively next time.

[Easy Street]

The central failure of Western understanding was of Afghan society and power structures. Western establishments deluded themselves that they were creating security forces for a functioning government. The melting away of those security forces and the almost-unopposed transfers of power to the Taliban in carefully-staged meetings with each of the regional tribal chiefs now show conclusively that the government ceased to function some time ago: maybe when the US struck its deal with the Taliban, maybe earlier. Maybe it never functioned effectively at all. From the report linked by etudiant, and the credibility-destroying revelation from Ben Wallace that he was trying to get other countries to help the UK stay in Afghanistan, it seems we were deluding ourselves that it was still functioning just days ago.

[ORAC]

Pentagon deploying additional troops to assist with their evacuation - total number of troops now 6000.

No information on helicopter deployments but they seem to have a lot of CH-47s and Blackhawks moving around and they will have to handle and turn a lot of AT in the next few days or weeks.

Saudi Arabia evacuating their embassy so obviously don’t think they will be considered to be in the Taliban good books.

[tdracer]

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1640x2000/ian_miles_cheong_afghan_embassey_pride_month_08_15_2021_2304 94edee68d60c72aab4eb130773f167405121.jpg
Something tells me the Taliban is not going to be kind to the LGBTI community...

[Thaihawk]

LB Where else would you expect BJ to be but behind the curve? Time for a new leader I fear!

My thoughts are both with those that are stuck in Afghan and those that now have the task of getting them out.

But who to replace BJ?, who it has to be said is all wind and p*ss. Starmer?. Rees-Mogg?. It just gets worse.

[tartare]

Apparently 800 pax onboard C-17 RCH 871 from Kabul.
Saigon all over again.

[NutLoose]

I do wonder if the Afghan Government squirrelled away their ahem… pension funds.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/sudhirchaudhary/status/1427118375713443841?s=21

https://twitter.com/sudhirchaudhary/status/1427129072019140612?s=21

https://twitter.com/jackposobiec/status/1427137418851979270?s=21

[dctyke]

Never worked with helicopters whilst in the RAF so don’t know too much about them regarding range. Where will the ones flying in Kabul fly to, will they have to destroy some before they leave the airport?

[ORAC]

They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.

[Bob Viking]

What strikes me the most about the first video you posted is how the people trying to board that aircraft seem to be almost exclusively young and healthy males.

You may infer what you wish from what I have said.

BV

[ORAC]

Apparently 800 pax onboard C-17 RCH 871 from Kabul.
Saigon all over again.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42005/800-people-evacuated-from-kabul-aboard-a-single-c-17-cargo-jet-reports

800 People Evacuated From Kabul Aboard A Single C-17 Cargo Jet: Reports

….A tanker bridge has also been created (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41988/shadowy-kc-135rt-special-ops-tankers-head-toward-afghanistan-as-evacuation-airbridge-forms) that is refueling heavily laden USAF transport flights as they move from Afghanistan to safer locales in the Middle East. The tankers could allow for the loaded transports to make tactical departures (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41736/c-17-pilot-who-made-that-intense-takeoff-from-portland-explains-the-maneuver) from Kabul with lower fuel loads than they would have to without aerial refueling support. There could be a major shortage of jet fuel at Kabul International, as well….

https://twitter.com/Gerjon_/status/1427025874210201603?s=20

https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1427035024487067652?s=20

[N707ZS]

Will the Taliban decide to extend there empire.

[ORAC]

Info for those on the ground from Politico:

Embassies have now set up makeshift offices to coordinate the evacuation at the Kabul airport. There are reports the British and German Embassy staff are staying behind to process visas for their Afghan employees. And to speed things up and cut through red tape, Berlin has also agreed to process visa requests on German ground after the evacuation, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said.

The U.S. acting ambassador has left Kabul, and the embassy is likely to be shuttered by Tuesday, two U.S. officials told our Stateside colleagues They report certain staffers will continue their work from the airport, protected by roughly 6,000 U.S. troops. Overnight, the U.S. Embassy issued a security alert warning of the “airport taking fire” and told U.S. citizens to shelter in place.

It is unclear how long the U.S. will be able or willing to hold the airport — with Germany’s Spiegel reporting (https://www.spiegel.de/politik/afghanistan-bundeswehr-fliegt-ab-montag-deutsche-und-ortskraefte-aus-a-7630fc93-1697-4d90-8ad5-74581635cb4d) that Washington has warned counterparts it was planning to wrap up the operation within 72 hours….

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv was also helping with evacuations. “Ukrainian aircraft stationed in Afghanistan took citizens of Ukraine, the Netherlands, Croatia, Belarus, Afghanistan out of Kabul,” he tweeted. “We don’t abandon our people & help others.” The U.S. is also helping to evacuate Europeans, German media reports….

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Paris has stepped up rescue efforts and is launching its first evacuations to the United Arab Emirates, also promising “full mobilization to allow the safe and rapid evacuation of all our nationals and individuals from Afghan civil society threatened because of their engagements.”

Spain announced it would send two airplanes Monday to Dubai for the first phase of evacuating embassy staff, local Afghan workers who helped Madrid and their families, as well as EU personnel.

“We will support the EU and its foreign service for an orderly departure of European and local personnel. We will not leave anyone behind,” said Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares.….

Meanwhile, Albania and Kosovo both said Sunday they had accepted a request from Washington to temporarily bring in Afghan refugees seeking visas to enter the United States, according to Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/albania-ready-temporarily-house-afghan-refugees-pm-rama-says-2021-08-15/).

[minigundiplomat]

They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.

Theres also the option of ferrying them out to via the North and AT from K2 or elsewhere.

[andytug]

Yet another example of the Western world not understanding (or not wanting to understand, as it may get in the way of quick profits) a "country" that is tribal and probably doesn't have an over-riding national identity unless one has been forced on it (along with some arbitrary borders), either by its own rulers or by invaders (as with most of Asia, the Middle East, former Yugoslavia, etc etc).

[dctyke]

They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.

Then let’s hope it doesn’t come down to people or equipment.

[tartare]

Dreadful reports on Twitter just now.
Video of people clinging to sponsoon of C-17 as it took off... reports several fell to their deaths.

[NutLoose]

They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.

People or Chinooks, I know which I would airlift out, the other would be left burning on the runway.

[junior.VH-LFA]

https://twitter.com/TariqMajidi/status/1427178021652291586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembe d%7Ctwterm%5E1427178021652291586%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2F42007%2Fapache-helicopters-chase-afghans-swarming-a-c-17-on-kabul-airports-runway

[NutLoose]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42004/mayhem-at-kabul-airport-causing-american-troops-to-fire-warning-shots-to-push-back-crowds

[NutLoose]

To see juniors hidden twitter feed of the mayhem, click quote then copy the link.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42001/fall-of-kabul-to-taliban-imminent-as-surprised-united-states-races-to-get-its-people-out

[tartare]

More video online of people perched on the right hand sponsoon of a C-17 taxying at high speed...

[NutLoose]

With Apaches trying to clear a path for the taxying C17's Tartare

Watch this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-58219963

[Easy Street]

Re the question of how the helicopters will be recovered: won't they just fly across to Pakistan and be recovered from there? With diplomatic clearance, of course; the Pakistanis wouldn't dare to refuse it. It's only 110 miles from Kabul to the border, and then another 20 miles to Peshawar or 90 to Islamabad. Besides, a few hundred troops will be needed to keep the runway clear of civilians for the final fixed-wing departure and they will presumably depart by helicopter with Apache escort. I should imagine that care is being taken to ensure that enough fuel remains (or is flown in) to get them all out.

[NWSRG]

Aircrew on the ground in Kabul are going to be having to make some horrific decisions, and then be witnessing the outworkings at first hand. I cannot begin to imagine the distress there as we watch from thousands of miles away. We can argue the politics forever and a day, but surely there is no doubt that a sustained presence would have prevented this meltdown. And what we are witnessing now will have ramifications for a generation.
I really feel for our troops on the ground, and the innocent Afghanis that are going to pay for this with their lives in the coming days.

[Easy Street]

surely there is no doubt that a sustained presence would have prevented this meltdown.

I'm afraid there is very much doubt over that. A sustained Western presence would have caused suffering in other ways. From the most recent SIGAR report (https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2021-07-30qr.pdf):

RS [RESOLUTE SUPPORT] reported 2,035 civilian casualties in April and May 2021, which included 705 deaths and 1,330 injuries. This total is nearly as high as the three months from January through March 2021 (2,149). According to RS, the top two causes of civilian casualties were improvised explosive devices and direct fire (e.g., rifle or machine-gun fire). As seen in Figure 2.31, these civilian casualties were nearly as high as the entire three month period last year (April–June 2020).

RS attributed about 93% of this quarter’s civilian casualties to antigovernment forces (40% to the Taliban, 38% to unknown insurgents, 14% to IS-K,
and less than 1% to the Haqqani Network), as seen in Figure 2.30. About 2% were attributed to progovernment forces (2% to ANDSF), and about 5% to other or unknown forces. These percentages are roughly similar to long-term trends reported by RS


I've said it earlier in the thread, there was no 'stay' option. The Taliban was progressively taking control of the country, its tax revenues and the home villages of ANDSF members. In short they were winning. The level of civilian casualties was not 'low cost'. The level of ANDSF casualties was not 'low cost', so much so that the numbers have been classified for a couple of years now. The choices were to escalate in order to pause (never mind reverse) the Taliban's progress, or to get out. Both options end with the scenes we see today; the first option merely kicks it down the road and kills more people by prolonging the fighting.

The only* realistic way of avoiding today's scenes was a negotiated peaceful transition to a power-sharing arrangement with the Taliban. The time for that was some years ago, when the Kabul government still held a fig leaf of credibility and the West had tens of thousands of troops in place with no pre-announced timetable for withdrawal. A paradox of negotiation is that you should compromise when at your strongest. Unfortunately Ghani refused to consider it.

* In a limited sense, there is perhaps one other way, which is that US government departments could have paid earlier heed to the intent of their elected Presidents and drawn down their personnel numbers sooner so that the scale of the final airlift could have been smaller.

Edit: same arguments made here (https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/afghanistan-right-time-leave).

[tartare]

There's a Spooky en-route to Kabul as we speak...

[dctyke]

Germans currently saying they cannot take off because of people on the runway.

[NutLoose]

I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.

[Ninthace]

I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
Where would you put it such that the vehicle could not be repaired and such that it could not be hacked by the bad guys?

[Beamr]

I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
If by chip you mean huge load of explosives, it might work.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1427215423641210882?s=20

[Ninthace]

If by chip you mean huge load of explosives, it might work.
The idea of riding around in a vehicle with any amount of HE that could be remotely triggered would not fill me with joy. :=

[Beamr]

The idea of riding around in a vehicle with any amount of HE that could be remotely triggered would not fill me with joy. :=
I agree 100%, but that would be the only way to make them permanently u/s (which was the question).
Eg high end german automobiles have all the latest theft prevention gadgets available, and yet those are stolen in less than a minute by someone in the knowledge (and those are stolen).

[NutLoose]

Something that would disable / fry the vehicles computer, a charge would not need to be big, just something that would take out the vehicles computer innards.

[Beamr]

Something that would disable / fry the vehicles computer,
which would then be replaced the instant the vehicle ends in wrong hands.

[ORAC]

I would imagine the cost of spare black boxes for such vehicles would exceed the.cost of a brand new Toyota Hilux. That’s assuming you’ve got the diagnostic equipment to confirm if that’s all that’s bust.

I mean, why bother when you can get something far cheaper that gets the job done?

Same argument as to why the Iraq AF are said to prefer their old Russian helicopters to newer American ones.

[Beamr]

Global market is working in this, too: if there is a need, there is a chinese factory.
Actually, I think the US Army were smart in leaving all the civilian vehicles out there without the keys: it is a bit lengthy job to program them all to work without the key chip presence. It's doable, but takes a bit time.

Instead of going the computer way, I'd have something physical triggered, eg a valve that floods the cylinders with coolant via intake manifold. Turn the key and hydrolocking kills the beast. Far eastern factories will copy any chip, but making full featured big diesel...

However, theres a catch there, too: once the bad guys realize what happens, they learn and disable the valve prior to starting...

The vehicle should be made so bad it's not worth saving and I'm struggling to think anything sufficiently efficient other tha HE.

[Ninthace]

I agree with ORAC. I would use the HumVee to drive to the HiLux dealers.

[Beamr]

I agree with ORAC. I would use the HumVee to drive to the HiLux dealers.
count me in :ok:

[dctyke]

Meanwhile RAF aircraft and personnel possibly hostages to civilians on the runway………

[ORAC]

Spray them with dye and announce anyone so marked will automatically be denied evacuation.

Even better, just broadcast that you will using a UV fluorescent dye and just roll out fire engines and spray them with water…

[NWSRG]

Andrew Neil now reporting USAF have suspended flights...chilling...

[Easy Street]

Andrew Neil now reporting USAF have suspended flights...chilling...

I wonder if we are about to see a US offer of humanitarian aid or perhaps even recognition of the Taliban government in exchange for exit of troops and assurances of safety for diplomatic staff. The Taliban leadership is keen to be seen as a regular actor on the world stage. China seems prepared to recognise them (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taliban-advances-china-lays-groundwork-accept-an-awkward-reality-2021-08-14/) and that would be enough for dozens of other states to do likewise. Any deal that ended the airlift would be disastrous for interpreters fleeing retribution but I don't think it's beyond the bounds of possibility.

[Ninthace]

Spray them with dye and announce anyone so marked will automatically be denied evacuation.

Even better, just broadcast that you will using a UV fluorescent dye and just roll out fire engines and spray them with water…
If they are desperate enough to cling to taxying aircraft. I really don't think that will work. Most of them won't listen and those that do will not care. Assuming at this stage there is even have a functioning airport fire service and the vehicles have not high tailed it off to the border.

I wonder if and how quickly a C-17 can do a 360 with at least one engine at high power - it might slow would be external passengers down. I have visions C-17s rolling down the runway with the top of the ac covered in passengers, Indian Railways style

[Ninthace]

Andrew Neil now reporting USAF have suspended flights...chilling...
Crowd control is clearly an issue, They are deperate and I suspect even the threat of bullets will not deter then other than temporarily.

[NutLoose]

Remember a lot of these guys worked for the US, though bar the scenes of Women and Children outside fleeing to the terminal there does not appear to be a lot inside the perimeter.

I think the Taliban would be wise to surround the airport and allow the evacuation of those inside or flying in to take place, they do not really want people in the country that may become a threat later, so better to let them go. Showing peace and order would look good to the world amongst the chaos being shown of the Wests evacuation.... even the Russians managed a more dignified departure driving out of Country across a bridge.

[AnglianAV8R]

US Army Apache helicopters being used to herd crowds off runway

[NutLoose]

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country with four vehicles and a helicopter full of cash, the Russian embassy in Kabul said Monday.

The embattled leader left the presidential palace in Kabul on Sunday to the insurgent Taliban fighters who had toppled his government.

“To avoid bloodshed, I thought it would be better to leave,” Ghani, 72, said on Facebook in his first comments after his departure.

The former World Bank academic — who holds a doctorate from New York City’s Columbia University — didn’t say where he was going, but Al Jazeera reported later that he had flown to Uzbekistan.

“As for the collapse of the (outgoing) regime, it is most eloquently characterized by the way Ghani fled Afghanistan,” Nikita Ishchenko, a Russian embassy spokesman in Kabul, was quoted as saying by Russian state-owned news outlet RIA, Reuters reported.

“Four cars were full of money, they tried to stuff another part of the money into a helicopter, but not all of it fit. And some of the money was left lying on the tarmac,” Ishchenko was quoted as saying.




https://nypost.com/2021/08/16/afghan-president-fled-with-cars-helicopter-full-of-money-russia/

Must have been his pension pot :rolleyes:

[SOPS]

What strikes me the most about the first video you posted is how the people trying to board that aircraft seem to be almost exclusively young and healthy males.

You may infer what you wish from what I have said.

BV

When we had boats by the hundreds arriving in Australia .. they were mostly young healthy males .. you may infer what you wish.

[Ninthace]

Perhaps young healthy males can beat old men, women and children to the head of a queue?

[RAFEngO74to09]

Dire situation unfolding at Kabul Airport right now - totally avoidable if Biden hadn't ordered abandonment of Bagram with all the Force Protection in place in the middle of the night a few weeks ago.

Kabul Airport now overrun by civilians and operations have been suspended.

At least one person has died after clinging to a C-17A as it took off.

Reportedly, around 800 people were allowed to get in a single C-17A yesterday (accordingly to comms monitoring).

(6) Aurora Intel on Twitter: "And from another angle https://t.co/4q4reOBcaT" / Twitter

[RAFEngO74to09]

Wall-to-wall coverage on TV now in the USA for 3 days and Biden still in hiding - just announced he will be speaking this pm at 1545 EST rather than "in a few days" or "when the time is right" stated yesterday

[chopper2004]

Went for morning stroll around sunny and wet Suffolk to see no less than x 8 Extenders on deck followed whch arived through the night, Rumor mill from the enthusiasts spotters community suggests they could be supporting Buff deployment (?). Apparently there were no less than x 4 white tops over the weekend (has not happened in a while) including this smoke belching legend (my photo of it lifting off a week ago) Constant Phoenix.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/960x640/236207417_10159938504381490_7325545543652026622_n_187b07b87b 14e414c3fecbc3382e5c1bd35ad0be.jpg
Also there are or were 24 C-17A into the Eifel region.

cheers

[RAFEngO74to09]

Overhead imagery of Kabul Airport
Maxar Technologies on Twitter: "New high-res #satellite imagery (10:36 am local time, August 16) of the chaotic scene underway at #Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport in #Afghanistan as thousands of people converged on the tarmac & airport runways as countries attempt to evacuate personnel from the city. https://t.co/L6lhlVms54" / Twitter

[Lonewolf_50]

https://nypost.com/2021/08/16/afghan-president-fled-with-cars-helicopter-full-of-money-russia/

Must have been his pension pot :rolleyes: No surprise there.
Also no surprise here; Imran Kahn swooning over the Taliban (https://www.opindia.com/2021/08/imran-khan-hails-taliban-rule-afghanistan-chains-of-mental-slavery-broken/).
On Monday (August 16), Pakistan PM Imran Khan extended (https://www.dawn.com/news/1640988) his support to the radical Islamist outfit Taliban, following their takeover of power in neighbouring Afghanistan. During the launch of the ‘Single National Curriculum’ in Islamabad, he justified the Taliban’s actions by claiming that the Afghan population had broken the ‘chains of slavery’. He also remarked that ‘cultural imposition’ (by the United States) was tantamount to ‘mental slavery.’
--snip a bit--
In 2012 he had even said that Taliban’s ‘holy war’ in Afghanistan is justified by Islamic law (https://www.opindia.com/2018/07/imran-khan-pakistan-prime-minister-liberal-islamist-anti-feminist-pro-taliban/)while visiting the hospital where Malala Yusufzai was treated a week prior. Malala, then a schoolgirl, was shot in the head by the Taliban in Swat valley of Pakistan in October 2012 for writing against the atrocities of Taliban in Swat Valley of Pakistan. Imran Khan has proved time and again that he is a terrorist sympathiser. Pick your preferred form of slavery, you'll get one or the other it seems.
My own experiences with Pakistan as "allies" as regards ops in Afghanistan (in the regions closest to Pakistan) are a bit dated (early 00's). Those those experiences taught me that Pakistan as an ally of convenience was a case of geographical necessity, not of mutually shared interests. They were a part of the problem, not a part of the solution.

Saw a brief bit on TV last night about China recognizing the Taliban; a practical response.
There's a Spooky en-route to Kabul as we speak... Is that a guess, wishful thinking, or a jest in bad taste?

[bucoops]

I watched "Greenland" the other day. End of the world type disaster film that concentrates on the people more than the actual disaster. Good film, by the way.

Scenes in it are scarily similar to what has been seen at Kabul over the last couple of days with security breaking down and the airside overrun with people desperate to get on a plane. This kind of thing shouldn't be happening in real life, I feel for those that are so desperate to get out they will cling to the outside of a military aircraft, and for the military personal who are "just doing their job" under such awful and terrifying circumstances. I can only hope that the evacuation is allowed to proceed safely and swiftly.

[RAFEngO74to09]

Comms from USAF C-17A RCH871 with 800+ PAX on board yesterday

(2) OSINTtechnical on Twitter: "Exact recording found here https://t.co/aPsylMRhS3" / Twitter

[langleybaston]

Reports of US "firing in the air" are interesting.

As a military historian of small merit, my understanding of British protocols is/ was that such a thing was not to be contemplated.
Transfer of control by civil power to senior army officer, mob ordered to disperse or we fire, mob fails to disperse, officer orders nominated soldiers to kill nominated targets.

Is this no longer doctrine?

Firing in the air teaches the mob that bangs kill nobody.

I wonder where our 600 Paras are ......... no mention anywhere that I have seen.

[NutLoose]

Langley, There are vids of dead people on the ground around one of the stands and saying the US military did it.

[dctyke]

Reports of US "firing in the air" are interesting.

As a military historian of small merit, my understanding of British protocols is/ was that such a thing was not to be contemplated.
Transfer of control by civil power to senior army officer, mob ordered to disperse or we fire, mob fails to disperse, officer orders nominated soldiers to kill nominated targets.

Is this no longer doctrine?

Firing in the air teaches the mob that bangs kill nobody.

I wonder where our 600 Paras are ......... no mention anywhere that I have seen.

just announced another 200 troops flying out there. Good luck to them all

[Easy Street]

Twitter can be the worst sewer of the internet, but sometimes it offers incredible insights. Like this from the (former) governor of Afghanistan's central bank on his perspective of the government's collapse, the competence of its leadership, and his personal experience of escaping by air.

https://mobile.twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674

[Mr N Nimrod]

Reports of US "firing in the air" are interesting.

As a military historian of small merit, my understanding of British protocols is/ was that such a thing was not to be contemplated.
Transfer of control by civil power to senior army officer, mob ordered to disperse or we fire, mob fails to disperse, officer orders nominated soldiers to kill nominated targets.

Is this no longer doctrine?

Firing in the air teaches the mob that bangs kill nobody.

I wonder where our 600 Paras are ......... no mention anywhere that I have seen.
maybe stick to guessing what the weather will be tomorrow, cos I’m certainly glad you were never giving the orders

[tdracer]

I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
It's not the Humvees I'd be concerned about - they are simply transport. It's all the other stuff we left them
Biden recently said the Afghani army was one of the best equipped in the world. It still is, except now it's the Taliban Afghani army...
I see the US military commanders were quick to throw Biden and company under the bus - saying they warned of this happening but were ignored.

[Mr N Nimrod]

I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
that is a particularly stupid idea

[NutLoose]

Why?
the US is already toying with using microwaves to disable vehicle engines, so why not have a built in system.

​​​​​​…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20418/the-pentagon-wants-to-stop-marauding-vehicles-with-high-powered-microwave-beams



.

[langleybaston]

maybe stick to guessing what the weather will be tomorrow, cos I’m certainly glad you were never giving the orders

aside from the allegedly unpredictable weather, could you please answer the question about the historical British attitude towards firing shots in the air, and current military doctrine.

[downsizer]

aside from the allegedly unpredictable weather, could you please answer the question about the historical British attitude towards firing shots in the air, and current military doctrine.

Mate you've had no skin in this game, and a lot of people here have, and are understandably upset today. Probably best to STFU for a while....

Read the room.

[langleybaston]

Mate you've had no skin in this game, and a lot of people here have, and are understandably upset today. Probably best to STFU for a while....

Read the room.

Pause righteous anger for a moment and just ask yourself "is firing in the air a good riot strategy?" Does it work? What is taught these days, or is it only taught to officers?
If it is not taught, should it be?

As for skin in the game, not true, but not relevant to my question. Play the ball, not the man.

[downsizer]

Pause righteous anger for a moment and just ask yourself "is firing in the air a good riot strategy?" Does it work? What is taught these days, or is it only taught to officers?
If it is not taught, should it be?

As for skin in the game, not true, but not relevant to my question. Play the ball, not the man.

Firing in the air isn't massively relevant to this thread and you know it. Stop being a tone deaf bell end.

And tell us all what skin you've had in Afghanistan? I'll wait......

[langleybaston]

Clearly not a meeting of minds, and this thread is not going to answer my serious question, so I shall research it off Forum.

[NutLoose]

Guys all take a chill pill and breathe, firing in the air can be just as bad, several were killed in Tripoli from “celebrations” involving firing in the air.

[downsizer]

Clearly not a meeting of minds, and this thread is not going to answer my serious question, so I shall research it off Forum.

Still waiting to hear your personal involvement in this catastrophe though fella....

Will we be waiting long...?

[NutLoose]

I have visions C-17s rolling down the runway with the top of the ac covered in passengers, Indian Railways style

and so do the Afghans sadly..


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/976x644/image_73c99a288c68f1ba38952876c68b7eb1cf52bae6.jpeg

[T28B]

For those of you not interested in Twit sites, a summary of what was in @Easy Street's interesting link. (Much noise edited out, and of course consider who it was who posted that information).
1/The collapse of the Government in Afghanistan this past week was so swift and complete - it was disorienting and difficult to comprehend. This is how the events seemed to proceed from my perspective as Central Bank Governor.
2/Although much of the rural areas fell to the Taliban over the past few months, the first provincial capital to fall was just 1 week and two days ago! On Friday August 6th, Ziranj fell. Over the next 6 days, a number of other provinces fell - particularly in the north.
3/There were multiple rumors that directions to not fight were somehow coming from above. This has been repeated by Atta Noor and Ismael Khan. Seems difficult to believe, but there remains a suspicion as to why ANSF left posts so quickly. There is something left unexplained@Atamohammadnoor
· Aug 14
My dear countrymen! Despite our firm resistance, sadly, all the government & the #ANDSF equipments were handed over to the #Taliban as a result of a big organised & cowardly plot. They had orchestrated the plot to trap Marshal Dostum and myself too, but they didn’t succeed.4/Currency volatility and other indicators had worsened, but DAB were able to stabilize the macroeconomic environment relatively well during the last week - given the deteriorating security environment. Then came last Thursday
5/I attended my normal meetings. Ghazni fell in the morning. I left work, and by the time I went home - Herat, Kandahar, and Baghdis also fell. Helmand was also under serious attack
6/Friday - we received a call that given the deteriorating environment, we wouldn’t get any more dollar shipments. People spread rumors that I had fled on Friday. On Saturday, DAB had to supply less currency to the markets on Saturday, which further increased panic.

[Ninthace]

Clearly not a meeting of minds, and this thread is not going to answer my serious question, so I shall research it off Forum.
I was taught it in theory many moons ago. I think it dates from Aden if not before and was in the context of the Riot Act or its local equivalent, rather than as a means of crowd control, and needed sign off from a legal authority.
These days things have moved on. I believe crowd control is now actively taught and practised as part of deployment training.
Actions would be determined by ROE. Circumstances under which you may open fire are very restricted. Fairly sure they do not include firing into the air or at unarmed civilians. American ROE are almost certainly different.

[NutLoose]

24 military helicopters and 22 aircraft with 600 military personnel safely down in Uzbekistan, one plane shot down by air defence, crew ok. I assume the personnel were crews and engineers plus families? Some of the shots seen of captured helicopters were not airworthy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9898985/Uzbekistan-forced-landing-46-military-aircrafts-carrying-nearly-600-Afghan-soldiers.html


Uzbekistan's neighbour Tajikistan said Monday it had allowed over 100 Afghan military members to land at Bokhtar airport in the south of the country.

'Tajikistan received SOS signals, after which, in accordance with the country's international obligations, it was decided to allow Afghan servicemen to land at the airport,' the Tajik foreign ministry's information department told Russian news agencies Interfax and RIA Novosti.

RIA Novosti reported that three planes carrying the soldiers had landed in Bokhtar during the night.



disturbing reports in link is Uzbekistan may return some soldiers that crossed the border.

[NutLoose]

I feel for this guy

Shafi Arifi, who had a ticket to travel to Uzbekistan on Sunday, was unable to board his plane because it was packed with people who had raced across the tarmac and climbed aboard, with no police or airport staff in sight.

'There was no room for us to stand,' said the 24-year-old. 'Children were crying, women were shouting, young and old men were so angry and upset, no one could hear each other. There was no oxygen to breathe.'

After a woman fainted and was carried off the plane, Arifi gave up and returned home.

[ORAC]

From the above report:

Uzbekistan said it shot down an Afghan fighter plane and forced the landing of 22 military planes and 24 military helicopters carrying nearly 600 Afghan troops that 'illegally' crossed its border at the weekend when the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.

The 46 Afghan aircrafts carrying 585 troops were 'forcibly landed' at Termez aiport in southern Uzbekistan on Saturday and Sunday after they had fled the Taliban, the country's state prosecutor said. …

The men were offered food and temporary accommodation in Uzbekistan, and the statement said Uzbekistan was negotiating with the 'Afghan side' over their return home.

Caroline Tabler, a communications director for U.S. Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, said the GOP lawmaker's office was working urgently to support Afghan pilots fleeing from the Taliban to Uzbekistan.

'We're working with an intermediary who's been in touch with the pilots,' she told the AP. “We have not heard from them since last night (Washington) time. We know Uzbekistan has taken their cellphones. Our primary concern is making sure Uzbekistan does not turn them over to the Taliban. We are frantically reaching out to the State Department on this case and trying to get them asylum and literally can't get a response.'

Uzbekistan's neighbour Tajikistan said Monday it had allowed over 100 Afghan military members to land at Bokhtar airport in the south of the country.

'Tajikistan received SOS signals, after which, in accordance with the country's international obligations, it was decided to allow Afghan servicemen to land at the airport,' the Tajik foreign ministry's information department told Russian news agencies Interfax and RIA Novosti.

RIA Novosti reported that three planes carrying the soldiers had landed in Bokhtar during the night…..

[RAFEngO74to09]

Actual PAX count on RCH 871 was 640 - still amazing

(1) Home / Twitter

[RAFEngO74to09]

Pentagon 2* military spokesman just now:

- Kabul Airport reopened.
- Next 2 x C-17A in had additional USMC and 82nd Airborne troops (of the original 6,000 - only 2,500 had been in place when over run).