Base Closures

[Jnr380]

Now the Canadian base is shut, what are they going to do with the non-PR pilots? Will the PR Canadian based pilot have the option of returning to HK?

[Veruka Salt]

OZ & NZ closed too. Those with PR can return, non-PR made redundant. Assume CAN same.

[Curry Lamb]

Cathay Pacific Airways prepares pilot base closures, leaving hundreds of jobs at risk

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3130550/cathay-pacific-airways-prepares-pilot-base-closures

Cathay Pacific Airways will close its Canadian pilot base and intends to also shut centres in Australia and New Zealand in proposed cutbacks putting hundreds of jobs at risk, the Post has learned.

The carrier’s European and United States cockpit crew bases will also be reviewed later in 2021, according to a memo sent to staff.

The expected closures follow a months-long review of the airline’s overseas cockpit crew operations.

More to follow …

[stevieboy330]

Wow ! some of the most experienced guys in the airline, dumped l

[Walkingthedog]

My heartfelt commiserations to all colleagues affected.
Another appalling example of disloyalty to those who have served longest.

First KA now CX based crew. Take whatever you can guys n gals save it for a rainy day. But don't ever fall for the “one family same team same dream nonsense”.
We all went from being an asset to a cost in a heartbeat. Fired by email at 8:30 am🙄

[Samsonite]

Yep non human resources taking care of it and again cutting the cheapest pilots and flight attendants in the company.

[LLLQNH]

Veruka Salt

Terrible indeed. Where are you getting that only those with PR can return from? Have management put that in writing as far as I am aware they haven't. Any idea how many PR/HK Passport holders we would have on the bases?

[Veruka Salt]

From an email sent to the base crew today. Unsure of base numbers, but have heard a number of ~ 130 mentioned for OZ/NZ. Someone will correct me if wrong.

[LLLQNH]

oh ok thanks for the info, so you're saying 130 of those on the bases are PR/Passport holders? So that would leave only a few not able to return? Or have I got that wrong, I hope that a solution is worked out for all.

[Veruka Salt]

I think a total of 130 on the OZ/NZ bases. Most of the DEFOs from 2007/08 would be affected. Not wanting to add to anyone’s misery here.

[Busbitch]

What a company eh! just chucking 120 odd A350 / A330 Command ratings in the bin ! How much will that cost ?

[LLLQNH]

But wouldn't all the Captains be PR? Or you think that none would want to return to HKG, I can certainly understand why you wouldn't want to come back here!

[Walkingthedog]

Not necessarily as my kids lost their PR after being overseas for 36 months. I guess the only way to keep it would be to return to HK as a passenger.
I guess quite a few may have positioned to HKG as pax. That would keep it currrent.

[Veruka Salt]

Unsure. Can think of a few very senior guys who spent < 5 mins in HK before gaining Oz bases in the early 90s

[Rie]

Really sad to see this happen. Everyone knew the writing was on the wall though. This has unfortunately affected a number of friends who were content with situation and family life as FO's and chose not to come back to HK for a command. It'll be a long road to recovery for those guys.

[Walkingthedog]

Its just wrong.

[Australia2]

. . . and girls.

[Bangaluru]

My understanding is that the immigration department has said they’re not issuing more (initial) work visas for pilots. So if pilots on bases don’t have their PR (Right of Abode) then it’s obvious they can’t work in Hong Kong. If you lose the right of abode by being absent for 36 months, you gain the right to land. That still lets you work in Hong Kong.

[Rie]

Bangaluru, that is true. There are many that went to bases without PR though. These are the ones who at this time will be unable to work in Hong Kong.

Australia2, and girls...

[Walkingthedog]

Bangaluru

I believe that’s correct. As I understand it one loses the right to medical care etc but can still work.

[badge42]

OED needs to be updated/corrected.

permanent
adjective

lasting or intended to last or remain unchanged indefinitely, with the exception of Hong Kong 'Permanent' Residence, and Cathay 'Permanent' Bases...


https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/services/roa/loss.html

[Samsonite]

A lesson for all the younger crew to not think of this as a career airline as you see now 1st hand that this Company will drop you at anytime no matter your loyalty, years of service position or how good of a job you have done. Any major airline in the world will treat you a 100 times better and that goes for a lot of flying jobs out there where they actually appreciate you so dont wait around for the time they decide to drop you. Zero security zero seniority equals Zero career

[doublelift]

Not even one pilot I met in cx not planning to leave, even local cadets. Good luck CX

[mngmt mole]

If anyone is still under the illusion that there is someway of establishing a career to support, nurture and protect themselves and their families...I can only hope you seek therapy asap. CX is not establishing themselves as arguably the most destructive force in modern aviation.

[veryoldchinahand]

doublelift

Interesting to know how many you have met, just to add a little context.
Was it two or perhaps even three.

[Jnr380]

When you fly with guys and gals and talk to them about the POS18 we were strong armed into signing, more often than not everyone has plans to either, relocate their families back to their home countries and commute, leave for another airline once the industry opens up, pursue non aviation roles..... the list goes on and on.

One out of ten would say they’re going to stay and go down with the ship or until they get thrown overboard by the captain (I.e management).

[doublelift]

You sound like the type of pilot that sit silently with no body wanna talk with you. Go talk with people and you will know loll

[highflyer40]

OED needs to be updated/corrected.

permanent
adjective

lasting or intended to last or remain unchanged indefinitely, with the exception of Hong Kong 'Permanent' Residence, and Cathay 'Permanent' Bases...


https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/services/roa/loss.html

That word leaves a lot of wriggle room!

[badge42]

Yes. Very true!

[deja vu]

Commiserations to all involved in CX. Not surprised though.
Out of interest whats with this 36 months for the life of the PR? Is this new? I left HKG at retirement in 2007 and passed through in 2012 using my PR. Is it a new thing? Personally not concerned as I am not ever planning to go back. just curious. Hardly a "Permanent" residency.

[Rie]

Deja, it's the right of abode vs the right to land if you pass the time requirements. It still allows you to work in Hong Kong. You end up losing voting rights and medical benefits.

[ACMS]

What about those that do have PR but don’t want to abandon their families for what could be a year and then after that have to try and commute.......
Not to mention under Cos18 as soon as they start in HK they can then be sacked on 3 months notice ( not 6 ) and not even get a ticket home......

Untenable position to be put in.

[bellcrank88]

Cathay will eventually figure out that they could be on the hook for 4 weeks of severance per year of service if they can’t offer the guys jobs in HK. There are a lot of 30 year Capt’s on the base. That could get more expensive to close then to keep open, but that’s not the way it works at CX. They usually just make decisions and follow through regardless.

[fatbus]

Do you not think that was already taken into account prior to any announcement?

[quadspeed]

A company burning billions a month figure they might as well do some house cleaning while waiting for the storm to pass. Severence pay - while certainly significant for the individuals concerned - amounts to no more than decimals in the big picture.

[Curry Lamb]

They will come, hat in hand, for another 40 billion HKD of the generous tax payers money, watch this space!

[controlledrest]

Company waits for Immigration Dept to stop issuing work visas, then closes the bases. Experienced guys down the road, even though their contracts still have redundancy FILO.

Talk of consultation is a lie, it's just box ticking to comply with NZ and Aussi law, the decision has been made.

Talk of bases in the future is also a lie, put out to trick the idiots who still think they have a future at CX.

[stevieboy330]

Bellcrank88, the contract is pretty clear (I have it), its 6 months pay & you are gone in the even of redundancy (you can go back if you have PR). The union will ask for more but that will be futile. Even if you had PR (which I do) how could you go back ? They just can't be trusted, going back would likely prove to be foolish & regretful. I would envisage 3 months on the current half pay deal and then "goodbye" anyway. HK & CX are not ever going to be the same again. Take the six months & put these toxic liars in the rearview. How many times do Pilots need to be lied to before finally learning the lesson. Just a few weeks ago they phoned all Aussies telling them they were "backing us for the long term & working on a return to work with a comprehensive training package". Aussies waited & bided their time for a year, thinking the company was playing the long game, then got cut off with 2 weeks notice. 500 triple seven guys & all without a Permenent HKID will be next

[Jnr380]

I remember that email with something along the line of “Bases are integral to our operation”. I laughed knowing the only integral part of the company is how many senior execs can screw the company, get their bonus and move on without a care in the world.

it’s a kin to someone setting fire to an orphanage and saying “I saved those kids from a lifetime of heartache”

[Mill Worker]

Surprisingly this weeks "The Weekly Wrap Up" email didn't mention Base closures and staff being unloaded...

[BuzzBox]

I'm surprised that you're surprised!

[cabbages]

The Base closures were communicated by the GMA. Somebody called 'Deborah' apparently??? (No, me neither)

[MENELAUS]

Best wishes, Deb. At that.

[bellcrank88]

stevieboy330

If it was a layoff, it would be 6 months as per the contract. There is a side letter that says the severance has to negotiated, then mediated, then binding arbitration.

[Flex88]

Looks like that expensive #UnconciousBias & #Diversity training Merlin Swire shoved down ALL "Managers" and Senior Employees throats didn't take hold like it should have ???
Seems when "Senior" managers (beginning with your 3rd floor mates) needed to "pick" they singled out MOSTLY those from 3 countries with other "similar" traits we'll not mention and additionally being highly qualified and experienced...The textbook definition of CONSCIOUS BIAS !!!

To get around this overt conclusion with ZERO chance of being criticised for "Unconscious Bias", the pathetic CX management minions could have done what was contractually agreed... LIFO.. But that was too simple so they went the BIASED route - AS EXPECTED..

[Oasis]

Do as I say, not do as I do.

[badge42]

Wasn't the term they coined to describe themselves, 'Senior Leadership'?

[stevieboy330]

bellcrank88

Ah that's not what my letter says !

[Angel 8]

Having looked at the UK government website for the Job Retention Scheme, it looks like that CX will start negotiations at the end of June 2021 for whatever they are planning to do with Europe.
Until the end of June, the UK Gov is paying up to £2,500 per month per employee, reducing in July and further in August then the scheme ends in September.
Under UK Law, they have to negociate for 45 days.
I was unable to lookup the US scheme to compare.
So for LON and FRA, the end date is September, assuming they annouce something before the end of June. That's why DM stated "later in the year" for Europe.
Meanwhile here in HKG, JRC is a policy, and the Government will not give anymore money, hence the announcment of VSS which is less generous than ERS.

[FlyingNun]

Hot ......
Just heard. London base to remain open.
Swire don’t want it closed.
However, some contract adjustments to be negotiated.

[viking avenger]

Great RUMOR, unsubstantiated and wishful, but great news

[FlyingNun]

Not a Rumor Viking, but a bar garden talk stuff.
London is too valuable to close despite the UK Law pain to CX.
Remember when CX wanted to close London after the 49ers, and Swire paid UKHMRC’s bill?
This time, market forces dictate contract adjustment only.
Some will leave and take the redundancy, some will stay on the new terms.
Frankfurt will cease especially now the UK is not in the EU.
Thats life in this pandemic, I’m afraid.
God bless us all.

[Progress Wanchai]

Swire still might have influence over the strategic direction of Cathay, but it doesn’t have complete control. Traditionally the independent directors have voted with the Swire directors including the Chairman to generally point the company in London’s preferred direction.

Given the political climate in Hong Kong it will be interesting to see if the independent directors now side with the Air China directors including the Vice Chairman, particularly with the two “non voting” government directors looking over their shoulders. Should that occur Swire don’t have the numbers to pursue any agenda.

[Avinthenews]

FlyingNun

Why is London too valuable to close?

Closing the base will have no effect other than the flights being crewed from HK as they were before bases began.

What market force does London hold that no other base does?

[FlyingNun]

Good question. Why is London base too valuable to Swire?
There maybe other effects or reasons that we’re not privy to, but, there you go.
Why is there a Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd registered in the UK? not the parent airline but a separate entity?
Why are there few “Swire” entities such as Swire Pacific?
We don’t know, but there’s always a reason behind headline news...

[Flying Clog]

Latest inside info is;

All bases to close, except London. Bloody well done for the LHR freighter crew who managed to hang on to that one!

And they sit in their back gardens for the last year while we all went through hell and back! Never mind!

The 777 is dead. All bases and 75% of hkg 777 pilots gone. Cos18, no seniority.

777 dead. Take the VSS. Bases gone.

[Progress Wanchai]

Swire Pacific is a Hong Kong based company that owns shares in various companies including a 45% share of Cathay Pacific.

John Swire & Sons is a London based company that owns shares in various companies including a 48% share of Swire Pacific.

This gives London a 21% share of Cathay Pacific. Certainly that buys them influence, but do they get to trump Beijing’s 30% share of the airline? How much say does London have in how a Hong Kong government bailout package is distributed?
I’m not disputing what may have been heard in London, just questioning how influential the participants are.

[Pistolpete47]

Hey Flying Clog, when did you put in your notice?

[mngmt mole]

Pistol. Clog is either right or he is wrong. What he is personally doing is somewhat irrelevant.

[GMEDX]

Yes mm, and Clog is probably right In his estimates. The 777 fleet as a whole flew 600hrs last month. They are only using 3 or 4 airframes. There will be cuts to bus pilots too but not as drastic.

[buster57]

Clog, If the 777 fleet is dead why is CX wasting money for storage fees, preventive maintenance and insurance for their 777s parked in the desert? Why are they waiting to sell the entire lot? Those airframes have less value with everyday that goes by. Why hasn't CX sold off the all 777 sims? Maybe your inside source can answer these questions. I have already used my joker so I cant go Airbus. I guess I'm completely screwed.

[pilot20]

Last month of salary for most of the 777 guys. Start packing and head out fellas

[Pistolpete47]

I'm trying to imply that Flying Clog and some others are being disingenuous. Encouraging others to leave while they themselves have no intention to go anywhere.

[Rie]

The market for the 777 is saturated. Even if they wanted to sell it they would have no buyers. Maybe cheaper to put in storage and hope that it either comes back or can be flogged off later on. Just look at the unmentionable in the sand pit. Can't even flog off a 777 yet it's all painted up in white and good to go.

[sjimmy]

@ Flying clog,
EU/NAM based freighter crews where doing 28 days TCR, sitting in quarantine except in ANC. So they were not sitting in their back yard, actually they were in your backyard (CX city) while you sat in Tung Chung drinking your GT.
Regardless of Base or Race I respect all the work done by my fellow Cx crew on any type.
We are all in this together, and I hate to see bases and good crew go. but it has nothing to do with skill it seems political.

[FlyingNun]

So, as I said... FRA is to be closed. I am so sorry to hear this, but it was predictable, non the less painful.
LHR will stay open for now until the numbers are gathered. Contracts to be revised with massive errosion of terms in line with COS18 (UK style)
I gather not many have PR in HKG at least not many F/O's, and that's exactly what CX are banking on, that most will accept the new terms.

[mngmt mole]

Rod Eddington (CEO a million years ago) told me at a "meet and greet" back in 1993: ...."welcome to CX, but be aware that there are big changes coming and the airline is going to remain competitive in the market".... Well, he wasn't kidding! It truly grieves me to see how low they have brought the career value, to what was once the best airline in the world to work for. I'm very sorry for the base pilots and their predicament.

[Klimax]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6dQvKtCNpE

Gone are the days. Swire will pull out soon enough - a major Chinese airline will take over the business and Hong Kong will be just another hub. It´s the sad fact. Not much left to fight for, unless you´re a local. Looking back at the past two decades, anyone surprised and unable to see this coming - must be beyond naive. Best of luck with the future decision - please do yourselves the favor of making a plan. For the local Hong Kong pilots and crew - I wish you the best of luck with what once was a legacy airline carrier.

[krismiler]

The above scenario is perfectly plausible and similar to one which I put forward earlier on a different thread, except I thought HKG would get divided amongst the big 3 from the mainland with the city as a virtual hub to keep costs down. Staff and aircraft maintenance at lower mainland rates, all the profits go to China and it’s a big stamp of authority on the city.

With CX having just raised US$650 million there is the possibility that the airline will survive which I also posted on another thread.

Investors won’t put up money like this to watch it go up in smoke, there has to be a survival plan on the table. Reducing cash burn would be top priority followed by restructuring into something which can make money post COVID.

Expect to see a downsizing of staff, fleet and network. More money would follow if there was light at the end of the tunnel and returns would be assured but at the moment this investment is speculative.

The EK style premium long haul hub model is out for the foreseeable future. Last September SQ had layoffs and decided on a different fleet mix going forward, with the B737, B787 and A350 being the primary types. Most B777s were grounded, there are orders for new ones but arriving in 2025/6, and 1/3 of the A380 fleet being retired.

CX and SQ are reasonably similar, so following Singapore’s example would be likely.

[BuzzBox]

Wasn't it turned off years ago?

[SandwichOfficer]

why would they only keep captains? That’s the most expensive solution. Seniority is a pre-Covid pipedream and the lack of fight from the union over the years means the company can swipe the scythe whenever and to whoever.

keep all the local captains and FOs. Fill in the gaps with C-scalers and company men/women. Find a job for the Instagram kings and queens. Bye bye B-scalers.

[Oasis]

keep the captains, perhaps because they can fill any role for now and when the recovery comes. It takes ages to upgrade someone who is a so or fo.
not the cheapest in The short term but best situated for a quick recovery.

[main_dog]

not the cheapest in The short term

So that won’t be happening...

[LLLQNH]

Downsizing steps

1 - VSS
2 - Close the bases (redundancies for those unable/unwilling to return to hk)
3 - no work permit renewals (more redundancies)
4 - involuntary redundancies of work permit holders
5 - involuntary redundancies of those holding PR/citizenship
i) bad apples?
ii) fleet specific?
iii) age? (keep the younger ones)

Question is how far down the list does it go? Hopefully no more than we have gone already ie 2 anything more would just be unimaginable.

[Oasis]

main_dog

logic may be out of the window on this one, but not being able to crew a full 777 because you don't have a captain may be more expensive than keeping captains on the payroll instead of lower ranks.

[Avinthenews]

CN1 & FO1 plus a suitable amount of trainers is all they need. Keeping the training machine ticking along slowly while a cost will keep things relatively “(new) normal” and ready to ramp up as time passes. Why have a CN3 or 4 when you have CN4/3 trainers.

[krismiler]

A restructure would likely involve new contracts for the remaining staff on a "take it or leave it basis". Preference given to locals then PR holders followed by foreigners. Baby buses for the short range routes, A330 for the medium and a few A350s for the long haul. B777s largely remain grounded until demand picks up again, with a few kept flying to keep the operation current.

Once things pick up again, crewing requirements get reassessed and an agency is used to employ crew on fixed term contracts. Possibly one of the Chinese ones which provided pilots to the mainland airlines during the boom, or there may even be a Rishworth contract for the new entity. Names are checked against a black list before employment.

[universe115]

Isn’t on new contract when Captain do FO job will get FO pay?

[Starbear]

Quite a few airlines ensure all their captains are RHS checked (very simple/short process) and so makes scheduling/rostering and standbys (especially last minute call outs) very easy and productive. I guess (and its only that) it is probably very efficient/cost effective in the longer term.

[krismiler]

RHS check can have different levels, at the most basic it involves a couple of circuits flown in the F/Os chair which allows a Captain to sit on the right but as pilot monitoring only, no take offs or landings. A useful tool for rostering if there is a shortage of copilots.

Dual seat approval as PF is normally for instructors but a suitable training program could probably be approved.

[ToCatLady]

Starbear

Very cost effective and efficient..... Just ask the poor souls on the 747 FRA base who were all LHS/RHS qualified and today no longer have a job......CX will do what they want, you just better hope you have a seat at the table when the dust settles...

[Oasis]

At least I am happy that the gravy train of the kitty city canteen clutchers continues unabated.
it must be quite difficult to keep those 17 aircraft flying that they need so many people in the office.

[Rie]

I was enjoying the CX City coffee the other day. You just need those flâneurs there to justify the cheque at the end of the month. I cannot see the boys having anything to do other than sitting down and chatting about the old days over a latte or two.

[Oasis]

I was kinda talking about the non flt ops people that do god knows what

[Bueno Hombre]

ToCatLady

If you would check the statistics, which might be available, but on the other hand might have been suppressed, you might find that there is a substantially higher accident rate with two line captains flying together. It seems that this combination somehow leads to increased stupidity.

[Numero Crunchero]

I see a lot of inane and ill thought out comments made here (quelle suprise). I thought I might correct, or add to it ;-)

For those that keep stating that the airline will shrink - why? We have ground operations staff/equipment/buildings that are not down scalable. On the contrary, they are more efficient per unit of production as production increases. So the bigger we get, the cheaper per unit we become.

Aircraft are the revenue source - getting rid of a lot or all of our 777s (assuming they are not replaced with some other aircraft) will INCREASE our cost of production per unit. We own or finance lease around 3/4s of our aircraft. It is only the operating lease aircraft that can (presumably) be gotten rid of relatively cheaply. So we are stuck with cheap assets/finance leases for the foreseeable future - why take an even bigger short term hit by selling out now?

We have more aircraft now than we did two years ago since we now have the KA aircraft. We will (eventually) need more pilots than we have ever had before.
Our maximum training rate is around 10% (2015 was our peak training year and the sausage mill was running flat chat).

Looking at past seismic aviation events (9/11, GFC) flying recovered to 90% within 6-12 months - then took another 2-3 years to recover the last 10%. Covid is playing out differently - though in domestic markets (China, US and Australia) actual or forecast flying is above 2019 levels. So when eventually most international travel opens, we should expect at least 90% overall flying in the near term. Will that be xmas 2021? mid 2022? xmas 2022?

If we got rid of say 600 pilots or so - it would take 2 years to recover them in terms of training capacity limitations. Getting rid of the based pilots therefore makes no sense unless driven by some other factor.

If all your flying is done to/from a hub - then it makes sense to base/roster everyone from your hub. If the unit cost per pilot in HK is say $2X per hour - and $1X per hour on the base, then yes JCR will drive the location of some of the pilots to outports. But if the differential is removed (COS18) then the unit cost in HK might be say $1.3X - suddenly the economics aren't so clear. Having said that - I personally don't believe the recent actions are economically driven - I think it is all related to the working visa issues. That does beg the question though - why AOAC first then Oz (and then FRA?). I have no data on that - only opinion so not worth airing here. (after all - I am trying to be as factual as I can be)

I have heard some interesting 'departure rate' rumours (losing one pilot per day).
Here are the departure rates for last 6 years or so
2015 - 63, 2016 - 92, 2017 - 128, 2018 - 168, 2019 - 171, 2020 - 160* (*estimated)
Using data from Oct ASL till today (14May) I would estimate that 60 have left so far this year (101 have left from OctASL till 14May). The 60 so far this year equates to an annual rate of around 170 for 2021 (pre VSS/base closure obviously)

When compared to 2018, 2019 and 2020, the rate for the first 5.5 months is comparable. Base closures and VSS will clearly blow that number up. So I suspect we will be SIGNIFICANTLY short of pilots if you look at 2023 instead of summer 2021 requirements.


End of numbers - beginning of my speculation.
I think we need all the pilots we can get - not today -but for about 1 year to 18months from now. We are training constrained - pre training ban etc we were maxed out at 10% increase in pilot numbers - so clearly we shouldn't let our total pilot numbers drop below say 80-85% of our mid 2023 pilot requirements. Since the training ban - we have more trainers than before plus, thanks to the company response to the training ban, the training courses are more efficient. So maybe the real rate of pilot increase is significantly higher than my 10% - maybe up to 15%?

[Oasis]

Numero, I love your posts, more please!

[universe115]

Thought some based non trainer Captains are dual seats TO LDG qualified, using FO limit when on right seat if not trainers.

[krismiler]

Australia likely to remain closed until sometime in 2022.
India’s COVID raging out of control.
Thailand’s cases climbing.
Travel bubble with Singapore looking less and less likely with new restrictions being imposed as cases increase.
Quarantine period increased to 3 weeks in many countries.
Indian COVID variant more transmissible and infecting vaccinated people.
Delays in vaccination programs in many countries.
Travel unlikely to return to pre pandemic levels until 2024.

The recovery will be uneven, whilst domestic air travel in some countries has already recovered and may soon exceed pre pandemic levels, international is still dead in the water. When it gets going again, it will be direct flights between fully vaccinated countries such as UK - USA. Long haul connecting traffic will be the last to come back, particularly in the premium cabins.

CX have done a fantastic job in avoiding layoffs for as long as they have, EK were doing it within a few weeks of the shutdown and SQ a few months later. However you are kidding yourself if you think the airline will remain as it is for the next three years until normality returns. CX will need to downsize into something that can survive the next few years and adapt to what the future will bring.

A shortage of training capacity in the medium term is the last thing on the bean counters minds.

[BusyB]

NC,

Applying logic to CX plans and actions really isn't very pragmatic.

[Progress Wanchai]

Good to have you back NC.

Tend to agree with those that say this time is different. In fact it’s always different as the world is constantly changing, but a crisis either accelerates the change or moves the change in a different direction. The Insider magazine available on Press Reader has an article regarding everyone’s favourite consultancy firm McKinsey commenting on the current situation. The recommendation to their clients is “Reimagination” and “Reform” if you want to survive. We all know which airline is one of their clients.

As NC points out there have been many aviation downturns in the past few decades which the industry has recovered from. The Asian Financial Crisis, 9-11, SARS, GFC and our own Hong Kong protests. Those downturns were consumer driven, either a personal fear or a hip pocket fear. Once the fear subsided the rebound occurred.
This crisis at the moment is government and bureaucracy driven. As the GMO highlights, finding a way out will be a lot more difficult and time consuming than finding a way in. Then when the red tape is gone will there be a consumer driven downturn? What’s unquestionable is the financial impact of the past 15 months will be immense. Consumers will either pay for all this government debt either through higher taxes, or if governments keep the debt on their books, through inflation.

The airline has already changed significantly. It entered this crisis with a legacy wide body long haul fleet with legacy Conditions of Service including legacy hiring rules. It has now introduced a narrow body short haul fleet with greater hiring flexibility due to our “progressive” new COS. I can envisage that the new training “sausage machine” will be direct entry captains and first officers onto the HKE/CX A320’s with any slack being taken up by the traditional wide body training. The ME carriers without a significant narrow body fleet can comfortably support an attrition rate in excess of 10% while still growing. Even if CX find they are a bit short they still have about 500 crew that are to retire on their 55th birthday. Offering extensions to 55 year olds is hardly unheard of, as you’d know NC.

It’s a valid point that the airline has significant fixed costs that don’t go away by downsizing. Let’s see how their reimagination and reform goes. Do they sell or lease buildings, in part or in full, such as hello kitty city and the freight terminal? I’ve great faith in the ability of the COO to cut until there’s nothing left.
The decision to cut bases obviously isn’t unanimously endorsed by all of management. You don’t need to read past the first sentence of the CPB latest update to see what he thinks of Debbie Does Frankfurt.

Since B scale and certainly C scale bases have not been so much a direct cost saving measure (the savings being offset by the cost of complying with first world labor laws) as an incentive to attract and retain crew. The company had made noises about a reverse rostering type arrangement to satisfy homesick crew. That idea was dead in the water when the AOA rightly pointed out this would be in breach of the JCR agreement. The company’s policy of reform via the shredder has removed this obstacle.

So I agree, this time is different. It’s always different. It’s a question of how agile the company is now, and how agile it thinks it can be in the future. When it comes to agility I see the company vastly differently to how it sees itself, so I can’t apply my logic as to what happens next.

[Drc40]

Some reasonable points above but the big white elephant in the room is HK itself and the ChiComm influence. This was changing before COVId and now appears to be more of a factor. HK isn't as attractive for aviation as it once was and that's only changing for the worse, not better. Now, more than ever, it's necessary to take the political and social issues into consideration when predicting the future of CX. That's changed from any other period in past downturns/recoveries.

[turnandburn]

I presume for safety all those on frankfurt base have been removed from flying and all the who were refused VSS have temporarily been removed from flying as well. In a first world airline to be offered VSS with a short timeframe and the pressures of that decision and some under the cloud of visa issues you would assume the safety managers would advise that these crew members would need some time to re-adjust again. As the job is not one of a paper shuffler where your error may only be a spell check issue.

[Freehills]

Yep, a friend who is senior in a medium sized MNC, with operations all over the globe, has said that what has surprised them isn't the cost savings, but how more effective conference calls are than face to face. They can have all the right people on the calls, rather than just the senior people and/or flying out that marketing expert for just a one hour meeting. Business travel will still happen, but likely to just be the diplomatic "press the flesh - attaboy" tours rather than for substantive meetings.

[poydras]

One of my mates is an Ozzie businessman. He reckon that business travel will resume as zoom meeting are good for preliminary approach to a deal but closing it’s a whole different matter.

[fatbus]

90% domestic business travel. You would presume shorter flights and fewer overall seats , making it slightly easier to drive the stats. But it is Good news

[swh]

75% of statistics are made up

[NotHere]

Well....afterall we are living in a world of if it is not my opinion then it is not the truth.....:*

[Flex88]

90% of intra NZ 'business" travel that is.. Corporate BS at its best.
Carriers world over spouting the same crap trying to prop up a long term major reduction in ALL travel to keep gullible shareholders from dumping their stock..
No matter which way you look at the airline world & travel; you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear, PERIOD!

[Curry Lamb]

NC, while I admire your optimism, speculation and Einstein numbers, there is a line between the real world and lah lah land.

What Drc40 and others said, CXi ‘s gripes started a few years ago already, long before the china scamdemic, it’s all political and pressure from LCCs.

HKIA as a hub worked fine for CXi over the past decades, but that ship has sailed too. Direct flights from the mainland to wherever is the future.

Looking at who will be flying CXi in the future, if 40% of expats (in a recent survey) are talking about leaving the HKSAR - national security law concerns, that only leaves us with some cheap local tours around the “Rice Bowl” and that’s where HK Expresso comes in handy. But hold on: GBA (and possibly more players) will debut soon, so there goes that monopoly plan up in smoke too - again the pressure from LCCs.

Even a company like PAL has seen the writing on the wall, and started a major restructuring plan.

Philippine Airlines Seeks To Cut Boeing 777 And Airbus A350 Fleet
https://simpleflying.com/philippine-airlines-cuts-fleet/

What CXi needs to do is to grow HKE, get rid of all 777s, cancel future orders, keep a few “A50s” to serve a handful of money making cities, and expand the cargo ops. With my primary school math: Fewer aeroplanes = fewer pilots.

The few changes CXi “management” have done until now, it might already be too little - too late.

[controlledrest]

COVID has been a gift for CX. All airlines are crippled and they can force POS18 on to the pilots. POS18 is a LCC style of contract (not really a contract as everything is company policy).

The base closures gives them POS18 forced on to the based pilots and allows them to terminate all those who chose not to return to HKG or "can not" because they can't get work visas - another win for the company.

As the full effect of POS18 (no housing) comes into effect many will sell up and leave, the shedding of the based pilots will cut numbers further.

Business travel will return - no one spends serious money without face to face time with the other party. The great unwashed down in EY will also return.

It won't be long before those who are left are working flat out, all on POS18. This is why the investors were so keen to pick up the bond offering. CX wins again.

[highflyer40]

poydras

Well there you go. Your mate just proved that going forward business travel will not increase by 50% to pre pandemic levels. As in the past they would have flown out for the whining and dining, sorry “preliminary approach” and then again for the signing. Now they only have to do the latter.

Any way you look at it of course business travel is going to resume, but it is never going to get anywhere close to the levels it was at before.

[Oasis]

Never say never. Over time, business travel has only increased and you can expect that , after an initial pullback, it will start increasing above the pre-covid levels.

If you are negotiating a multi-million dollar deal, you need be in that room.
If there is a problem, you want to be in that room.
If you need to exert pressure, you have to be in that room.
You can't get those subtle clues from someone while the are not looking in your eyes.

[Flex88]

You mean like "in the room" when the Swire Princeling morons signed "face to face" for the fuel hedging contracts that evaporated ~ 5 BILLION USD in profits or do mean
"face to face" like when the Swire Princes negotiated to decrease HUNDREDS of MILLIONS in fines over the last 20 years for cheating ?
Or perhaps you mean "face to face" like when the London & HK Swire morons were scheming and colluding to "score big" on fuel hedging and rigging cargo prices scams that, like it or not, have led to the near death experience that CX faces today ?
The Princelings with their purported Midas touch anointed by HQ or promoted from within thence unleashed on the Swire empire turn out in the end ( CX case) to have the Medusa effect.. oops.

[Freehills]

However, many deals and issues have been dealt with over the last year without people being in the same room... Did CX and Boeing need to be in the same room to delay the 777X orders?

[3Greens]

How do you have a large conference on zoom? How do companies display their product? How can you taste food? Sit in a new car or boat etc?
Business travel isn’t just some suit travelling to sign a contract, it’s so much more than that. Yes zoom, will have a place but airlines will adapt and won’t really care who sits in the comfy seats, as long as their paying for it who cares?
as for the melon talking about Concorde above, any volunteers for hitting him with his own dumb stick? Pretty sure no one cared about telecommunications on those LHR-BGI flights we used to do. Maybe the years have clouded my brain but I recall it was more the fact it couldn’t go supersonic over land so was heavily restricted on the routes it could fly to turn a profit. That and after the french went and crashed one, the increased weight due to the modifications in the wing tanks made it more challenging to reach JFK westbound in one go.

[fatbus]

There will still be some business travel but nowhere near pre covid numbers . The world has adapted,deals are still being done . Business travel, if really required, will be in Y+ class. Cost cutting was needed badly this past year and as stated shareholders will want to recover at all costs !

[VforVENDETTA]

None of this matters. Unless you're already resigned with the fact that your current employer (if it's cathay) is below zero credibility level as an employer and you must find a new job outside hk (because as cx has proved by legal precedence) that the employment contract you sign in hk isn't worth the toilet paper you're signing it on... it does matter at all if cathay or hk business comes back after covid or not... it doesn't matter at all anymore if business travel or any travel comes back here.

Seriously... are you people still in.denial?!

[Drc40]

dctPub

Good for ANZ but I would suspect it's a minuscule blip in the world impact of business travel. Especially in Euro and US. There are many anecdotal reports of companies making permanent changes to their business travel budgets. Certainly not eliminating it completely but it stands to reason some long term effects will happen. I've personally talked to dozens of business travel decision makers and I can count on 3 fingers those who said they'll be back to 100% pre COVId levels. The bean counters and management have had a one year test run and it's been a resounding success.

[Oasis]

Some depressed, gloomy people over here.

[VforVENDETTA]

Some delusional people here.

[Drc40]

Numero Crunchero

Not wanting to debate the other hyperbolic points but not sure where you're getting US numbers. They are NOT anywhere near actual 2019 levels or forecasted to be or even close to 90%. The best days they are having are in the 60-70% range with heaviest days being Sundays. ie Not Business! Which is where the real $$$ are needed for airlines.

[krismiler]

Airfares are usually based on last years +/- a few percent, setting these fares as travel picks up will be very difficult as the environment will have completely changed. Expect a few wild swings as things settle down. I’m interested to see how much of a premium airlines will be able to change for business over economy. Normally it’s about 3x the price, with flights into New York up to 5x and flights into Bangkok down to 2x.

As business travel will take longer to recover I would expect to see cheaper fares in this cabin but more expensive in economy as airlines try to recover the loss of revenue. At the end of the day it all comes down to supply and demand, with the bean counters trying to maximise the income from each flight.

[DropKnee]

They said the same stuff last time about travel. Blah blah blah. Travel rebounded even stronger. Same will happen this time.

[Busbuoy]

Yes it will, just not in HKG.

[Drc40]

Exactly. I understand the reluctance in accepting difficult outcomes because it's painful. This has become clearer every day/week/month. Right in front of us. HK, CLK and CX are all impacted and for the worse. It royally sucks because HK (and CX) have been great for many of us. This city was the center of the universe only rivaled by New York. Of course it isn't "ending" but the vib is tarnished, the allure diminished and everything else just aligns with ChiComm. Ugh

[Oasis]

Hong Kong doesn’t need free elections or even free speech in order to be a significant financial hub.

It is a real shame what has happened over the past two years, but it won’t necessarily affect business and it’s travel in the long term.

Singapore isn’t a free country, Beijing and Shanghai aren’t free, so it’s not a requirement for money to flow.

one thing is for certain, there will be a lot of hkg-lhr flights in the years ahead.

[Kitsune]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-cuts-spell-the-end-of-business-trips-and-expenses-8w6k98lnt

[krismiler]

What isn’t so certain is which airlines will be doing the flying.

[Obama57]

Oasis

I imagine multi-million deals are negotiated by execs with access to the corporate jets.

[controlledrest]

NZ Base following the Aussi base. Closing. The crunch will be if the boys can get visas. I suspect they will now that the company is recruiting HKG PR pilots.

By the end of the year the bases will all be closed.

[RAT Management]

Sorry to all the guys and gals on those bases. Some great characters to fly with. They will be missed. Whatever happens, I hope they end up coming out smelling like a roses! In a word... Sad.

[FlyingNun]

controlledrest

Look at my posts in this thread on 1st and 3rd May.
London will stay open.

[LLLQNH]

Whilst we all admire your optimism, come on face the music....

[controlledrest]

Anyone able to confirm that the AKL FOs who stayed on COS99 and took bypass pay are now been offered POS18 with RA65? Anyone else in the company with old RA55 now on RA65?

[LongTimeInCX]

bellcrank88

May I ask what makes you think 4 wks of severance/year is likely, and in which based jurisdiction are you thinking?
Do you have any references to the legislation on which your statement is based?

I think there are a lot of interested people who would like to know whether you are actually correct, or more likely just pontificating and believing some very wishful thinking.

[Bueno Hombre]

Fat Cat Prima Donna Pilots> :Yes, good question , but even if it is so , 4 weeks multiplied by 30 would only be 60 weeks, a bit more than 1 year salary. Cheap at the price. Should have been done years ago. Cathay Pacific Management ability is questionable. No wonder the share price has been falling. for a long time. Why oh why is Hong Kong Government spending billions to support this badly managed airline?..

[highflyer40]

My maths may be bad, but I don’t think it is that bad. 4 x 30 = 60? I thought it was 120, which is 2 years and 4 months pay. Not bad considering with 30 years in you wouldn’t be too far off retirement anyways.

[Bueno Hombre]

Yes I stand corrected. Anyway should dismiss the older ones , except key instructors, first and accept the temporary set back to annual profits or losses.

[KRDG]

Anyone able to confirm that the AKL FOs who stayed on COS99 and took bypass pay are now been offered POS18 with RA65? Anyone else in the company with old RA55 now on RA65?

YES THAT IS CORRECT. Also, technically they were on COS 2002, when NZBL was formed which was the equivalent of Cos 99

[HKJunkie]

From Simple Flying web site (in case not seen)
Cathay Pacific has confirmed it will close its Australian base in July. This follows news the Hong Kong-based airline will shut its Canada base. The fate of Cathay Pacific bases in New Zealand, Europe, and the United States remain up in the air.

[Will IB Fayed]

It would be nice to think Senior Management would analyse both the calibre of troops lost in the upcoming base closures, and the actual cost of redundancy payouts. Alas, I don't think they will give a ****, hence my decision.

[CXDOG]

You’d better have a read of the letter exchange between AOAE and the company - if you’re a member of the union that is. The company is trying to assert that redundancy doesn’t apply to the FRA closure as there is no global headcount reduction. After all, they are recruiting in HK 🙄

[Fly747]

And Dog? They did join a HK airline.

[CXDOG]

My point is that the company will use any legalese trick in the book to wriggle out of financial obligations. It is plainly obvious that they are being made redundant but the company is trying to use the sham recruitment drive to deny them their contractual right to an extra few months of redundancy payout versus ‘voluntary’ termination. The same premise would also nullify the built-in seniority protections of the contract. Those on the US base should take note in case they think their contracts are any better.

Yes this is a HK airline, with management that without a shred of conscience will stoop as low as necessary to save a buck.

[Dingleberry Handpump]

Ridiculous if true (I’m certainly not arguing!) - because in the U.K., the relocation of your work beyond a reasonable distance qualifies as redundancy, which has been tested numerous times in court.

I’m led to believe that German workers enjoy pretty robust laws and protections - so that would be surprising if they can’t protect redundancy payouts..

the company will always try their hand, I’m sure, but it won’t be over for years in that case.

[Oasis]

Sounds like they haven’t really thought it though…

kind of seems like proper planning is out the window now.

they can’t even seem to fill the freighters at the moment.. nuts with other cargo airlines breaking records.

[controlledrest]

Fly747

They joined an airline which has its head office in HKG and offered Temp and Permanent bases in a wide range of countries.

[controlledrest]

CXDOG

100% true.

Aussi and Kiwis expected to be back in HKG by end of Sept - even though there is no real work for them. Quarantine at their own expense.

[controlledrest]

CXDOG

Same thing they told AOAA and AOA (NZ). And the bastards got away with it.

[BuzzBox]

If they 'got away with it', why were the Aus-based pilots offered the option of either returning to HK or taking a redundancy, in accordance with the base closure clause of their COS?

[Will IB Fayed]

WTF you talking about.
Redundancy (6 months basic salary) offered to Aus.

[controlledrest]

The Base Closure clauses I have seen state that officers will be offered another Home Base in the Base Area if there is a position available or a return to HKG (no ifs or buts - a return to HKG and continued employment). Redundancy pay out is not linked to Base Closure at all.

The Base COS redundancy clauses clearly state that in the event of redundancy it will follow LIFO off the Common Redundancy List. The company is not following this.

Most of the guys I have spoken to who are non-PR don't expect to get a work visa. They believe the company waited until a back room agreement was reached with IMMD so that their application for work visas will be declined, CX will claim their hands are tied and 'redundancy' is the only option.

Remember that the Aussies were on zero pay, the kiwis on about 1/2 and the Canadians offered to go onto zero pay. The company is pushing the closures so that they can make senior pilots 'redundant' in violation of the base COS LIFO and to have all pilots on POS18 back in HKG (POS18 would not be a legal contract on the bases as it gives no protection to the employees and isn't really a contract at all as anything of importance is company policy and subject to change without notice, solely at the company's discretion). The company expects most guys to either take the payout or be forced to take the payout due to lack of visa. Mass redundancies in breach of LIFO. The Hong Kong pilots are probably just thank full it isn't them (especially the 777 drivers).

That is what the bastards are getting aware with.

This isn't about survival of the company - they haven't had to draw down on the government support. This is about using covid to force employees on to Asian LCC contracts so the company can compete with the likes of HKA and GBA in the future. It is easier than making decisions to position CX as a premium carrier charging premium prices.

Any pretense of following contracts, treating employees with respect and compassion, being a 'team' and being engaged is completely gone.

[MENELAUS]

Heed him. For that is the best description of what they are up to yet.

[BuzzBox]

controlledrest

That is NOT true in the case of Australia. In addition to the two options you quoted, the base closure clause in the Australian agreement specifically provides the option to take a redundancy in accordance with the redundancy section of the agreement. A base closure is separate to worldwide redundancy, where LIFO would be applicable.

[Oli777]

I wouldn't say the 777 drivers are thankful it wasn't them, we're about to get a rude awakening when CX shakes the tree and dumps half of us. Immigration visa issues can only solve a tiny percentage of CX's woes, the rest WILL be "...you have been made redundant" letters to a huge number of us. CX tried, but they failed. They held out as long as they could. Has no one really worked out why they are now suddenly changing their name? come on.. I'll give you a hint, "..the highest bidder is" First we start trimming our subsidiaries, then we close out bases, then we change our name, then we clean out a huge chunk of our non productive workforce, and then.... $$$. Yes this does come a lot from Mainland, but maybe they are a bit more financially savvy than us down here in CX dream land and have had enough.

[controlledrest]

Do you think the company have the balls to bin PRs and HKG Passport holders too, or will they be forced to bin all work visa crew first?

[Rie]

If they were smart they would go through performance records and any warning letters first but I cannot see the immigration department allowing that. It’ll be anyone that has no real ties to Hk to go first. Then the PR, before the HK passport holders then when it is down the the skeletal frame of its former self will the Han Chinese Locals be removed.

[Oli777]

They will bin anyone who doesn't need to be there, it's simple cost cutting. First all the non PR's, then along with that all the people who have performance issues / warning letters on their name, then so on down the line, so no one is safe and sitting comfy. The airline will be left with their own "best of the best" hand picked guy and girls. When the airline is at the right size, fleet and staff then time for the hammer $$$ but anything CX does is at the speed of a snail with a flat tyre.

[Rie]

You mean best of the snivelling little children that get their brown noses into the good books by "helping" the higher ups?

[Bueno Hombre]

Being a team should be a two way process between pilots and management. The continuous whinging of pilots on this forum, through good times and bad indicates that many pilots have not been proper team members..

[SaulGoodman]

if you don’t want to listen to whinging pilots don’t come to pprune.

[Sam Ting Wong]

nor sit on a crew bus or cockpit

[poydras]

Enjoy the HK :mad: show. I am happily done with this place.

[Avinthenews]

Have to say, CX is sadly a miserable airline, even airlines that pay considerably less pre and post POS18 have happier crew front and back. Ask the DEFOs who are generally surprised by the toxic environment. A Swire born legacy?

[Flex88]

Bueno Hombre

Only two teams at CX. The one that drops the bar of soap in the shower and the one that is forced to pick it up.. You decide which is which.

[Avinthenews]

FlyingNun

London just got the usual base closure negotiations notification.

Perhaps they meant cabin crew base remains open.

[FlyingNun]

Keep up! will you?... That was in May. We're in July now. Who knows, maybe this signals the end of CX ???
Or worst still the end of Swire in China.

[Angel 8]

If LHR is closing, then we're doomed.
All I can say: Sosan Sosan.... two at a time.....
Let's get the hell outahere.

[cabbages]

London closing early September apparently with those eligible, and willing, to relocate to Hkg being offered a slot. Are all those on bases being offered the same redundancy package (6 months)?

[Avinthenews]

FlyingNun

Good one champ still spouting it’ll stay open in June, keep up hey?

[Flying Clog]

I doubt there will be many coming from the LHR base to HKG, even if technically able, with HKG PR. You can count on one hand the number of FRA based that did.

You'd be mad to come to this toxic nuthouse. And that's before you take into account the absolutely crap pay.

There are other jobs in Europe now, and leaving aviation altogether would be an even better option in my opinion.

[kenfoggo]

With Hong Kong refusing to open their airport to less restrictive travel, the COVID virus still rampaging through the world, Cathay losing millions of dollars a month on all the expense of financing , storing and maintaining aircraft that do not fly, paying expensive pilots who do not fly , paying all the overheads that only make sense when used to the maximum or close to it, there is little wonder that resignations from Cathay have reached an all time high. No sensible pilot can see a future for themselves or their family at this failing airline. Rumour has it that at least ten pilots per week are leaving and also rumours that all the remaining pilots are using the low Cathay basic pay as a job seekers allowance before moving beyond Cathay; which leaves the prospects for recovery for the airline now remote. Cathay is in a long , slow death spiral propped up by false hope and government money. Just my own opinion and I hope that I am wrong. A huge shame , but it seems that the end is now inevitable.

[buster57]

As far as the US base pilots, you are not wrong. K4 and 5Y have been hiring every CX pilot applying(self included). 5Y has a new contract(Mar 21) with a payscale just below FEDEX so most have a class date, are just waiting for another VSS and will never return. CX has become a great training airline producing pilots with type ratings and lots of time on the 747 and 777

[krismiler]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3141859/cathay-pacifics-london-pilot-base-facing-shutdown-100-jobs

[anxiao]

Buster that is one of the most hopeful posts on Fragrant Harbour in three years. The very best of luck to you guys.

[iflylow]

buster57

What are you on about? Atlas pay is basically regional airline garbage. A year 3 FO at FedEx will make more than a year 12 captain at Atlas, especially taking into account work rules. What is with this misinformation?

[Rie]

Here is the article I was able to capture before the paywall took over like the guys to the north.


Cathay Pacific is proposing the closure of its London pilot base, placing nearly 100 jobs at risk as the airline commences consultation on employing Britain-based cockpit crew in future.

Hong Kong’s embattled flag carrier is pursuing its latest cost-saving measure as part of drastically scaled-back operations overseas amid the Covid-19 pandemic, with its British base the latest to face closure following the shutdown of four other foreign branches. A similar base in the United States remains untouched.

The airline has closed pilot bases in Canada, Germany, Australia and New Zealand in recent months, affecting 280 jobs, though dozens of crew members who were eligible to work in Hong Kong had opted to relocate.

A spokeswoman confirmed the carrier’s latest intention. “We have notified our London-based pilots and their union representatives of a proposal to close our London pilot base,” she said. “This is simply a proposal at this stage and no decisions have been made.”
The proposal to shut down the London base follows a similar move in April involving its Australian counterpart, which then resulted in a formal closure.

The company pointed out many of the airline’s London crew members had not flown since April 2020, with the industry hammered by the pandemic.
Before the health crisis, the Hong Kong-London Heathrow route was Cathay’s most lucrative long-haul destination with five daily flights. During the past year however, the airline has only been able to muster one flight per day at most.
Cathay planes on the tarmac in Hong Kong. The carrier has been hammered by the pandemic. Photo: Winson Wong
Cathay planes on the tarmac in Hong Kong. The carrier has been hammered by the pandemic. Photo: Winson Wong
All overseas passenger fleet pilots had been placed on standby since May last year, the airline previously said, while furloughed Europe- and US-based pilots have been receiving half of their salary.

Cathay Pacific lost a record HK$21.6 billion (US$2.8 billion) last year, and is on course to report a substantial loss for the first six months of 2021, but the figure is expected to be lower than the HK$9.9 billion recorded in the same period last year.
Cathay Pacific says worst of Covid-19 financial crisis behind it
Last October, the airline shut down its regional carrier Cathay Dragon amid a sweeping restructuring that cut 5,900 jobs, mostly in Hong Kong. Last summer, it was rescued by a government-led bailout to the tune of HK$39 billion.
Cathay’s pilot numbers have plunged from more than 4,000 to fewer than 3,000 during the pandemic. The airline has started rehiring a handful of aircrew, dumped by the closure of Cathay Dragon, in anticipation of a tentative recovery in air traffic.
It has seen demand for air travel collapse since the outbreak, with daily passenger volume falling 99 per cent at the height of the crisis.

[Will IB Fayed]

Not sure if it's written above, but for interest sakes, approximately 90 out of 125 (72%) guys in Aus chose to take redundancy (by my guess approximately $80-100 million HKD in payouts) The other point of note, there are basically zero flying jobs available in Aus atm, and a veeeeery slow recovery coming, so I'd expect a lot more than 72% of US and EU guys to give CX the flick.
Also heard GMA was surprised as to the large number of Aus pilots who chose to not come back to the Motherland. :D They get rid of expat benefits and wonder why expats don't want to work there.
I agree with Ken, CX is backing themselves into a corner they will never recover from. Oct 2022 will be an interesting time.....

[buster57]

We are extremely fortunate here, the US airlines are doing quite well so we have many options. Fair Winds and Following Seas to the rest of based pilots (Aussies, Kiwis, Brits, and Canucks) it has been an honor and privilege to fly with such talented aviators. Good luck to all.

[Will IB Fayed]

It sure is a shame. I certainly enjoyed flying with a very large percentage of the CX family (despite the garbage that they post on this forum!). I thought I had at least 15yrs left of my flying career, alas, it's ended.
Good luck to everyone.
PS it's honour.....:ok:

[OK4Wire]

Also heard GMA was surprised as to the large number of Aus pilots who chose to not come back to the Motherland

Also heard she expressed a lot of surprise at the recent resignation figures (esp TCs on the 747), saying "this doesn't make sense, no-one's hiring right now!"

Re Aus base: 90 guys with about 30 years aviation experience each = 27,000 years of experience down the drain in one fell swoop. More to come, obviously.

[FlyingNun]

90 x 30 = 2,700 however, I fully agree, CX is dumping experience to save short term.

[ACMS]

Yep, it’s a crying shame………I still had 7 good years near the top of the pile….gone now in a blink….

[Vtwin]

FlyingNun

No, he's right. It's actually 27,000 years of experience in the GFA mind. Somehow they believe their ridiculous Aussie anal pedanticism we've all grown painfully accustomed to equates to ~24,300 years of additional real world flying experience for them. They probably even logged it.

[norfolkungood]

OK4Wire

Just shows how out of touch she is….many have decided it is just not worth staying here. There are so many issues that the Pilot body is facing there will be many more of us to follow in the coming 12-18 months. It’s been a fun ride but the aviation sector in HK is never going to be the same again.

Good luck to all wherever you are……..

[Flex88]

OK4Wire

Cummon folks.... At what point do you think this transplanted Swire smurf gained insight into unSwire concepts such as long term experience ?? Give me a break and quit postulating they have "proper" HR capabilities.. In Swire world re flight crew (or management for that matter), there is no SPACE on their profit/loss spreadsheet for those lofty ideals.. Think PC ..

[controlledrest]

DFO says 'This is just a proposal at this stage. We will give careful consideration to all views....before making a decision on the future of the base'. Complete :mad:. He says that to comply with UK law. The decision has been made. The base will close, as will USA. Those with jobs to go to will take the $ and run. Others with PR will return to HKG to get current again and then depart.

All bases will close because POS18 is only legal in HKG.

If the management weren't so :mad: stupid they would have closed the most expensive bases first. Instead they close Aussi (on zero pay) and Canada (offered to go on to zero pay to keep the base open) before UK and USA.

[8driver]

I agree with much of what you've said. Except Canada was not efficient. The 747 guys had been crewing trips out of US bases for years after the freighter stopped going through Vancouver. And the US bases allow for complete domestic patterns in the US without having to deal with HKG CHP lunacy. USA will be shut down in "due course". I'd be amazed if it wasn't. First world labor laws to negotiate PoS18? LMAO.

[Rie]

Vancouver was a bit of a jolly for those involved. Living in Whistler and having to take helicopters to the airport when the Sea to Sky was closed was always the best story I heard.

[8driver]

I should clarify, I'm horrified at the shutdown of the Canadian bases. I was simply taking issue with the statement that the US bases were among the most expensive versus Canada. The passenger fleet isn't flying, and "COVID ZERO" dictates it won't be for a very long time. Thus those bases are pretty much equal. But the 747 is flying. So you have to weigh Vancouver and Toronto 747 versus the lower States. I would have been more than happy to find a way to keep those guys on.

[mngmt mole]

I suspect no other airline in history has been able to clear out so many pilots as quickly as CX has. It will be one for the Business School studies. Ironically, a career at CX was a mirage all along...it just took 5 decades to reveal it to be so.

[Flex88]

Sure there was, and for the exact same reasons... decades of MISMANAGEMENT..

Braniff, Eastern, PanAm, Ansett ......

[mngmt mole]

....they went out of business. I'm talking about using a temporary situation to get rid of most of their senior, more expensive pilots. Cynical to a level that is incomprehensible (except this is the Swires and CX...so I shouldn't be that surprised with this outcome).

[Table For 1]

I refer you to the comment above......given the state of HKG and the agenda of the CCP, CX will join that illustrious list of defunct airlines very shortly.......wakey, wakey.

[22N114E]

Rie

Rotary transport IS a good story, but the Concorde story is even better!!

[Cpt. Underpants]

The Concorde story is good, but the same individual would load up 5000 kg more fuel than CFP, bump the CI up to 500, and streak across the Pacific to LAX…

To catch the last LUV flight to his hometown.

To SAVE HIMSELF $39.95 FOR A NIGHT AT THE HACIENDA.

[Aero Vodochody]

Cost Index 500 would definitely get you a high speed Cruze!

[Busbuoy]

Weren't there chartered Learjets as well....

[AQIS Boigu]

Didn't some guy charter a Chieftain or a Cessna 310 from some Victorian country town to make his flight in MEL?

[Cpt. Underpants]

Aero Vodochody

LOL. Definitely Andhe loved showing photos of his F50 to potential “investors” in a savings scheme….

[Oasis]

The cos18 version of this is: ‘I once called an Uber, when I couldn’t get a taxi!’

[quadspeed]

5t extra to make a connection to Sydney out of SFO.

Speedwindow open the entire way. Left the flight deck and out of the aircraft before anyone in 1st.

Not uncommon, but with enough gold in the chest and hard currency on the 3rd floor to withstand whatever may come.

Gone days.

[Busbitch]

FYI those of you electing to return to HK would be wise to keep an eye on this new Bill tabled in Australia yesterday. It may mean you will not be allowed to return to Australia if you really need to. It very likely will pass as it is receiving little opposition.
https://theconversation.com/theres-no-clear-need-for-peter-duttons-new-bill-excluding-citizens-from-australia-119876

[BuzzBox]

Errr, perhaps your post was in jest, but how many commuting CX pilots are likely to be classed as terrorists or a security risk? On the other hand, the Biosecurity Determination was recently amended and is likely to affect those trying to commute during the pandemic. The Determination was amended to remove the paragraph that gave Australian citizens who are ordinarily resident overseas an automatic exemption from the requirement to seek approval to leave Australia. They now have to apply for an exemption, just like anyone else who wants to leave the country.

On 1 August 2021 the Minister for Health and Aged Care amended the Biosecurity Determination 2020. From 11 August 2021 Australian citizens and permanent residents ordinarily resident in a country outside Australia will not be automatically exempt from Australia’s outward travel restrictions. From this date, they must apply for a travel exemption through the Travel Exemption Portal (https://travel-exemptions.homeaffairs.gov.au/tep).

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia#toc-6

[Jnr380]

So they might grant an exemption, they may not. Who’s going to take the risk? Plus as with everything to do with the Federal government, you might need a 3 months lead time

[Flying Clog]

Why the hell would anyone in their right mind elect to come back to Hong Kong on Cos18 off a base? That's the question you have to ask yourself.

I think being able to return to Australia is the least of your worries if your mental state is in such a poor condition that you would continue to work for cathay.

Much better options out there, particularly outside of aviation.

[BuzzBox]

That might well be true for the younger folk, but it's not so easy for older pilots (say 55+) to change careers. Age discrimination is supposedly illegal, but most employers still prefer to hire younger employees. We all have different circumstances and for some it made sense to return to HK, if only for a few years. Mind you, not many made that choice.

[Flying Clog]

Rubbish. In the UK for instance there's a shortage of 100,000 HGV drivers. The super market shelves are half empty. Great pay, far better lifestyle and flexibility than flying. And a similar skill set needed.

Unless it's your fragile ego preventing you leaving this now toxic aviation industry, I don't really understand why anyone would keep chasing the bottom of the barrel. Especially with Cathay, which has gone from being one of the best paid and rewarding airlines to work for 10-20 years ago to quite possibly the absolute worst (taking into account the quality of life vis a vis renumeration and the truly dreadful dystopian life in Hong Kong).

But I take your point - if you are at CX, approaching 55, worked here for a decade or two, and not able to jack it all in with a fair amount of savings you have gone severely off piste at some point, and frankly, it would be hopeless whatever or wherever you chose to go. So then yes, you might be stuck working for these :mad: mill owners.

[Freehills]

Average HGV pay in UK is 32,100 gross, average starting salaries is 21,000. Decent pay (a bit higher than overall average) but I wouldn’t say great. If you get a job driving fuel trucks for Shell or someone like that, with plenty of antisocial hours, can probably get up to mid 40’s. Need to pay for own training

And with average UK house price now over 250,000, that salary won’t buy you a decent place to live…

[Busbitch]

Err, "buzzbox" I was not trying to slur anyone making the choice to return to HK it is a personal choice.

[BuzzBox]

No need to get uppity and tell me to 'chill', I was merely pointing out that the article you linked referred to the Counter Terrorism Bill that seeks to stop certain people ENTERING Australia. It is NOT the same as the Biosecurity Determination that restricts people LEAVING Australia. You no doubt meant to refer to that second piece of legislation.

[BuzzBox]

Flying Clog

You might find that kind of work appealing; many others don't. As I said, there are options out there for younger pilots who want to make a career change and many have done exactly that. However, older pilots have a different set of circumstances, especially those who might only be a few years from retirement. It's often a case of 'better the devil you know'. BTW, not everyone approaching 55 has a bucket full of money, especially those based in high tax areas who can't access their retirement savings (eg Australian superannuation) until around 60 years of age.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Flying Clog, I am curious. What are you doing right now?

[cabbages]

I totally understand why some would rather relocate to HK than start a new career at home, but how many, if any of the non PR holding Base pilots been given a work visa to enable their transfer to so far?

[Will IB Fayed]

Flying Clog

You sir, have no idea. What a foolish comment.

[Avinthenews]

Flying Clog

Because seniority is awesome, employees with decades of skill and experience can have the opportunity to move to the bottom of of the next company when ever they wish. Just like the rest of the world… Not!

Seniority protecting the lowest common denominator since - Fate is the Hunter.

This is why, he/she must return. The option of starting again is financially unpalatable.

I literally explained seniority to a guy tonight and he looked at me like why?, with each new company and job he just moved into more and more responsibility and financial benefit.

[Flying Clog]

Sam Ting Wong

Packing my bags, fixing to leave the hong kong cesspit, as it happens :yuk:

[Fletch]

Are you leaving the airlines to be a tramper/ HGV driver in the UK?

​​​​​​

[Flap10]

Avinthenews

Yes because the next company doesn't already have an F/O patiently waiting for an upgrade with decades of skill and experience. He/she is there willing to forego an upgrade solely to be impressed and enlightened by your abilities.

[krismiler]

An approval to leave can be appplied for before travelling to Australia and simply requires some supporting documentation. IMHO slightly safer to have a pre approval than having to convince Border Security on your way out.

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia#toc-8

[Avinthenews]

Flap10

And said FO with experience you think should be an SO if he moves to another job or should he/she be able to slot in where his/her experience dictates and even god forbid be offered a command course for that experience.

You appear to be saying that without seniority no one ever gets promoted because of external hiring yet the entire world functions without it perfectly well.

[veryoldchinahand]

Sam Ting Wong

I have been given to understand that he is going for a gig with the Daily Fail. The writing style of invention, distortion and exaggeration is a perfect fit.

[Flap10]

Sorry but if you liken this industry to other industries then you obviously don't get it.

Firstly, your financial mate will have literally more than 500 different financial institutions he can apply to across the country, How many reputable airlines can you apply to in OZ, two, maximum three? This is the main difference. The aviation industry has very few employers that employ several thousand employees, where as other industries have thousand of employers that employ very few employees.

Secondly, what metric do you use to gauge ones skill experience? Flying hours? Type rating? Number of sectors flown? We are ALL checked to the same standard and go through the same annual recurrent training, line checks, proficiency checks, etc, etc...Is a 10,000 hour pilot automatically a more skilled pilot than one who has 8,000 hours. Is a long haul pilot worse than a short haul pilot? not necessarily.

Thirdly, you think airlines are out there looking for test pilots? haven't you learnt anything by now? Airlines are run by accountants and without seniority they would be looking for the cheapest pilot that meets the companies minimum requirements, end of story. They could care less if you're Yeager's offspring with 25,000 hours. And as we've already seen so far, there is ALWAYS going to be someone out there that would be willing to do the same job for a lesser salary, who do you think they will hire?

Seniority system may not be perfect, but it is the better option in this industry. It's somewhat ironic that you criticize a system that has afforded you an upgrade whilst keeping your CoS.

[controlledrest]

Economists talk about the 'mobility of labour' - workers will move to better jobs. With seniority we loose that. Once you reach a point where you can't afford to start again at the bottom, you are stuck where you are, even though each contract is another kick in the nuts, as the new contract is better than what else is on offer when starting at the bottom. CX has decided to use the wuhan virus to force us on to POS18 (a collection of conditions of service OK for someone with no airline experience), where as others I know at airlines which respect their staff have followed the contracts, made surplus staff redundant, reached agreements on reduced pay, but expect to return to previous conditions and reemploy when thing improve.

Due to wuhan there is currently no where better to go to. Due to seniority that will continue to be the case. So my plan is to keep current and watch the market. To avoid seniority I will move sideways to a contract airline job or corporate pilot.

Seniority is a bitch which keeps us down.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Seniority is good for some, bad for others. Rarely First or Second Officers complain, but usually senior Captains do ....

I find it rather pointless to discuss the merits of the system, we will not change it. There will never be true mobility of labour anyway, mainly because of having the right passport is more important than anything else.

Controlled Rest, I would argue that no company on the planet truly "respects" their employees. None.

Every company simply acts in the environment they compete in. They follow local legislation, or they don't if it's worth the penalty. Which is the same, and that for some reason is surprisingly difficult to understand by many in here.

Companies might appear to act more labour-friendly, but in reality this is just the display of the respective strategy. If the management of a company believes it is either beneficial or necessary, because legislation, union laws etc are forcing them to do so, then they will role-play to "respect" their employees, and only then. No company has a soul or a conscience, it is not a living thing. Hence no company has the capacity to "respect" anything, it is an artificial legal entity driven by market forces, shareholder and stake holder demands. That's all there is. Cathay is not an evil employer, that also does not exist. Cathay simply does whatever is possible within the Hong Kong market and legal environment.

[flyhigh55]

I had a thread on seniority lists ( search - seniority lists discussion..... Again! ). I would like to see the industry get rid of them. Last post on there was in Nov 2020. I wonder if the chat landscape has changed for some of the people who were pro seniority lists?

[Flying Clog]

Fletch

I am doing my wagon drivers licence as we speak. It's one of the many options I am looking at, along with flying jobs in Europe that are cropping up. There ARE jobs out there. If nothing else than a stop gap to keep me current until better paying flying jobs come along.

HGV driving would be better in the UK financially (for now), whereas the flying jobs are in Europe, which is a bit of a conundrum.

I've already had an offer, before even finishing my licence, for 50 quid an hour, or 8000 pounds per month for a cushy HGV driving job (that won't last forever, but who knows), which is more than I get as a 747 captain with cx incidentally on a 60% forever pay cut. I would be home every night, living in a 'normal' country, not the ridiculous loony bin that hong kong has become, and wouldn't have to deal with the :mad: and swire psychos we work for.

ANYTHING is better than working for crappy pathetic. Even sitting on one's arse burning into savings, which we're doing anyway working on COS18 to a certain extent.

Evidenced by the number of 747 pilots resigning from CX with no job to go to, or packing in aviation altogether.

Sadly, the keen 777 retreads coming across like rats off a sinking ship aren't helping the cause, but that's their problem and good luck to them.

Best to leave them to stew in their own :mad:, and before long they'll be squealing like stuck pigs when all the rest of us have moved on to better gigs!

[Flap10]

Seniority is good for some, bad for others. Rarely First or Second Officers complain, but usually senior Captains do ....

I wonder if the chat landscape has changed for some of the people who were pro seniority lists?

I can assure you that the senior Captains at Delta, United, American, Air Canada, KLM, Lufthansa. Air France, Quantas, and so on, whom are sitting on top of the salary scale, avoided layoffs, are exactly on the equipment they bid for and fly exactly the roster they bid for aren't complaining about seniority.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Good point. One is usually con or pro seniority depending on the personal circumstances..

Clog, the moment you find out the real salary as driver of whatever, you will pack your bags. But not to leave. Welcome to Hong Kong! 😂

[MENELAUS]

Whilst Clog is way off the mark on the salaries that HGV drivers can command, and indeed understates the appalling way that they are treated ( not allowed to use washing nor toilet facilities in any number of places, ablutions in layby’s etc etc) here In Blighty, he does have a point. Most 777 drivers wouldn’t have given the average 747 pilot the steam of their proverbial back in the day, let alone acknowledge them, yet are now breaking their necks to get on to what is the Promised fleet.
And his writing style is not rabid enough for the wail.

[SaulGoodman]

controlledrest

Why do the best jobs with the least amount of retention (UPS/FEDEX/KLM/Air France/Lufthansa/South West/United) etc all have seniority? and all the :mad: ones like Travel Service, Wizzair don’t?

when CX was good they had a seniority system. Now that CX is just another bottom feeder, go figure!

[smogluver]

Without seniority all positions can be replaced by cheaper labour. Particularly in an industry where accountants do not understand and can’t quantify the value experience brings to their bottom line. Just like the clown running CX.

[badge42]

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system.”

- Niccolo` Machiavelli.

Cathay has simply moved from a seniority system to a superiority system. The new system is just based on who you know, not what you know, and why not? Nothing new.

[Gnadenburg]

SaulGoodman

As an outsider, it's a little flabbergasting that some Cathay pilots would bemoan seniority after years of being protected by it. Have these pilots ever seen the industry and what's out there beyond the status of a legacy carrier? Competing with scycophants-cronyism, nepotism and even corruption rife. Yes, you see a bit of all this in a seniority based airline, though it is just nowhere near as grubby.

So, after forging a career at CX within a seniority based system, now its all gone and the job is pretty average, some now want an open market for flying jobs? Seems a little entitled to me.

[controlledrest]

smog liver

Without seniority all workers can take their experience and qualifications to another employer who is offering a better package. I have friends in IT, law and accounting. They are frequently poached by other companies offering better deals. With seniority only corporate or contract jobs might offer a better package, other airlines can only offer entry level packages, so year after year we take the pineapple and stay where we are, getting more and more pissed off.

[Dingleberry Handpump]

Flying Clog

96 grand a year for a truckie in the U.K.!

hahaha you’re an idiot.

[Busbuoy]

Seniority is objective, meritocracy is subjective.
Meritocracy only benefits workers when they can trust the people making the subjective decisions.
There's a reason why airline managers want a meritocracy.

[SaulGoodman]

controlledrest

feel free to apply to Wizzair if you don’t like seniority. Plenty of airlines don’t have it. So everyone wins

[MENELAUS]

Only 20 years ?

[PercyP]

Try 30 years.

[MENELAUS]

Indeed. 20 year sprogs !

[3Greens]

Dingleberry Handpump

exactly. My mate is a class 1 HGV driver and I can defiantly state he does not earn that sort of wonga. More like £30K

[MENELAUS]

Agreed. Even tanker drivers ( and despite whichever brand of fuel it says on the side of the tin it’s invariably the same forwarder you’re working for ) are making just above that. Factor in the quite appalling way that they are treated here ( compared with their French, German and Polish counterparts ) and it’s a tough gig.
Milk tanker; 0300 starts. Drive to the pick up in dark. Dice with death with tractors capable of 60 mph down country lanes or the Yummy mummies doing the school run In their 4 x 4’s glued to their phones or sat nav and refusing to back up. And time pressure to get the product to the processor before it spoils.
If anyone is making 80k a year doing this please let me know who. I know a few people who’ll have their CV’s in pronto.

[Flying Clog]

Sounds a lot less taxing than aviation these days. Where do I sign?

[MENELAUS]

I can assure you it’s hard graft. And you ain’t getting even close to Pos 20 pay for it.

[Dingleberry Handpump]

I thought you’d signed for your £96,000 trucking job already? Hahaha clown

[controlledrest]

Axe has dropped. UK to close. They got the same letter as NZ and Aus with a little bit of cut and paste. USA next. At least the yanks have jobs to go to.

Time is running out on visas for those already on the chopped bases. Company and immigration dragging their feet.

[stevieboy330]

There are still real savings to be made if they were sack all HK Pilots too ! their payroll expenses would be reduced to near zero, almost immediately !

[carolknows]

Shocker!
How many are affected?

[Will IB Fayed]

Sorry to hear UK guys. After being "chopped" in Aus, I never actually felt bad leaving CX behind (despite not having a job to go to). So all is not lost.

[Oasis]

Hi Will, do you know how many were on the base and how many went back to Hong Kong?

[Dingleberry Handpump]

About 20% returned. The company obviously was happy to see the other 80% disappear.

I suspect similar figures will return from the U.K., and expect 0% returning from the US.

[Oasis]

Thanks for that info, sad to see so many great people being forced leave the airline, after giving up their salary.

[PercyP]

Sad to hear of another base closure. One assumes the affected pilots will be treated with the same compassion, empathy and recognition of long service that other based pilots have received?

[controlledrest]

DFO and GMA didn't even have the guts to front this and make the announcement.

[Will IB Fayed]

I heard 90 of 125 took redundancy. (In oz)

[controlledrest]

PercyP

Are you joking? CX no longer has an compassion, empathy or recognition of long service....it is just another Asian LCC heading towards a hull loss. (I do hope you are joking, or simply no nothing about CX).

[arse]

controlledrest

So wound up you can't even recognize sarcasm?

[controlledrest]

I did think it was a piss take, but these days it is hard to tell.

There are some out there who think the company did the right thing by ignoring the contract and pushing everyone on to POS18, instead of following LIFO and cutting 1500 off the bottom.