Flying Training Commencement 2021

[Telfer86]

Likely not great news all around for 2021 commencements

I noticed a large school at Parafield is offering full board for people starting their March CPL course - fee $76K

Probably a good deal really as board/accom (my understanding at least) is $400 + per week there

They must be struggling if that is the offer

Will the various aviation degrees survive this ? what will enrollments be like for 2021 ?

They can likely "hibernate' their courses for a while , but there are staff costs

What will enrollments be like in the full time CPL type courses ?

Hopefully enough of the training sector will survive

Question: Would anyone recommend someone to commence a CPL/IR atm , even the QF cadetship ? (the word is this
is only still running as FTA got a five year contract from QF)

[PoppaJo]

I recommend being job ready in about 2-3 years.

Whatever you do, in this climate, DO NOT pay a upfront sum, ever.

[IFEZ]

Wise words PoppaJo...

[Corvallis]

Wise words poppa jo

[Telfer86]

Hard to see any issues with the FTA program , $75K (including food & accom) , 8 months , funds taken in 7 or 8 roughly equal payments
You are going to have to pay upfront , or be able to gaurantee payment in some way (ie: VET) just do it in smaller chunks
Am sure the Unis & pumping up the volume about pilot shortage in 3 years - what else would they say

There would have to be at least 1500 or so Australians who were flying OS who have returned (could be up to 2500)

Then possibly a whole lot more to be let go at CX, Then 800 or so made redundant by Virgin / Air New Zealand, then 1000 + still stood down at Qantas

Some of these guys/girls are younger than 62, 63 , many in their 20s , 30s , 40s - so they aren't going away anytime soon

No road map

[McLimit]

Wise words poppa jo

(Well everyone else is saying so ;))

And it's wise.

[McLimit]

The underlying shortage is there, lurking. Maybe not in Australia but it will return to bite world wide, the variable? When?

- How many pilots that are facing a 2 to 3 year stand down will say '**** it, I'm done' when it's time to return?
- A **** load more pilots than expected in the US have taken early retirement, check the number of RV kits sold to get the exact numbers :}
- Airlines like Cathay that have taken a stick to the Pilots will struggle BIG TIME to crew their aircraft when things turn.
- When the middle east airlines ramp up, they will mean business and other airlines will wear it crew wise.

Have a look at UPS in the States. They are struggling now (while the economy is supposedly ******) to keep up with the training reqs. The number they need now to replace retirements alone is huuuuuge (Daryl Eastlake).

[PoppaJo]

The challenge of the 2030s will be trying to fill seats. Which is why it’s a good time to be GA Job ready mid this decade. And trying to fill those seats with quality and well trained people. They will become harder and harder to get as each year passes. Those players out in the Far East will have no choice but to pay considerably more, with large sign on bonuses. We have all seen the dollars China is willing to offer.

Players like Rex will have a tough task trying to fill and maintain the left seat in whatever turboprop they are operating. Qantas and Virgin NG will be the employer of choice. Jetstar will get burnt with high turnover and a generally negative internal culture.

Those currently in the late 20s, early 30s should have pretty good careers.

Standby will be a thing of the past in 20 years. Just won’t be any bodies to even consider such a scheme. Sickies will just equal cancelled flights. I’ve already seen this play out in a few places.