Sudden Fare Increase?

[MDS]

I was looking to book travel to the USA in September (just in case it's possible) and noticed fares have increased 50% across the board in the past 2-3 days.

Previously a couple of days ago, basic Y fares LON-LAX-LON were ~£300 return, now they have increased to ~£450 return.

Is there something I don't know about as to why these have increased?

I'm aware prices fluctuate but a drastic increase during this pandemic is a little strange. That includes multiple airlines - KL, VS, BA, IB, AC, etc.

[Load Toad]

Speculation that demand will have risen by then and you'll be prepared to pay the increase.

- UK & USA should be well down the vaccination road by then so....go figure...

[PAXboy]

I noticed that, when the South African route was open for the Chirstmas holiday season (before further restrictions announced) the prices of LHR to both JNB + CPT were way above their usual season prices. They have to take the money where they can get it.

[Pistonprop]

I guess they have to try it. If, however, the punters hold back and simply don't pay those fares, the airlines will have no option but to bring them down to realistic levels again. It's really up to us!

[MDS]

All the above makes sense.

I'll be damned if I'm parting with 50% more though! Especially given the current climate of uncertainty.

I'll hold off booking for now, otherwise seek other countries should the need arise.

[Pistonprop]

I suspect there will rapidly be a fare war once things get going again.

[PAXboy]

All carriers have 'no fee rebooking' to try and get us to send them money. LH emailed to offer more mileage points.

[Pistonprop]

Indeed, I have had offers left, right and centre from several airlines. All binned at the moment!

[Tocsin]

BA sale finished 2 Feb, and other airlines 'just happened' to move in the same way?

[Mr Mac]

Pitonprop/ PAXboy
Some good airmiles promotions if you are flying at the moment. EK are offering me triple miles as are LH, Singapore not quite so generous so filling my FQ program currently as still flying. Not sure when I will be able to use them maybe next year for holiday with Mr Mac as she has to put up with me being away. Good deals also with hotels which are open around the world. UK not quite so good I found in Jan, as no food available, I got fed up of salad boxes !

[621andy]

I suspect there will rapidly be a fare war once things get going again.

I'm not sure there will; I think it'll be a sellers' market as there'll be less competition and more demand. I think higher prices will be the 'new normal' as they recoup their losses.
I flew over to the UK in September for my medical from FRA and the price was eye-wateringly higher than normal and the flight was heaving...

[tdracer]

I don't know, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the idea that '£450 return' (~$600) for a 10,000 mile round trip is somehow excessive...

[Asturias56]

especially when 2 years ago it was £ 620+ LHR- ABZ return................

[MDS]

I don't know, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the idea that '£450 return' (~$600) for a 10,000 mile round trip is somehow excessive...

It's not the actual fare price that I had a problem with. It's the fact that an identical product from the same company now costs 50% more for seemingly no reason.

I'd feel the same way regardless of which industry I was buying from. If you've offered me a product for £300, I'd feel a little miffed that a few days later it's £450 for no reason (it's not last minute, no changes have been announced, etc.)

I'm fully aware this happens though and that fares change all the time. I was just inquiring to see if there was a specific reason (ie: restrictions being lifted that I hadn't heard about) or if it was just a 'natural' price shift in the market. The explanation of the BA sale being over makes complete sense though.

Oh well, my fault for not buying at the time. :8

[easyflyer83]

If the airline has removed capacity on the route (cancelled flights and rebooked pax) then that would increase fares on remaining rotations.

Back end of last year, one airline was operating extra sectors, empty out, to the canaries (flying with pax back) in order to maintain yield on remaining outbound rotations.

[Pistonprop]

I'm not sure there will; I think it'll be a sellers' market as there'll be less competition and more demand. I think higher prices will be the 'new normal' as they recoup their losses.
I flew over to the UK in September for my medical from FRA and the price was eye-wateringly higher than normal and the flight was heaving...

I think it is a sellers' market only right now because presently only those who need to fly are doing so. Once travel restrictions are lifted excessively high fares will not be sustainable. There are plenty of sunny holiday resorts within the European mainland reachable by car or train. The airlines will need to compete. As much as my family and I are going to need a holiday, I can guarantee that I won't be paying through the nose to do so. For me the Med is only a day away by car (and I won't have the extra expense of renting a car when I get there).

[longer ron]

All the above sounds reasonable and perhaps one could add to the mix and say that most airlines probably use similar business models, usually if you book early enough and get the first block of seats sold on that particular flight then you get a good price,If somebody else comes along and books on the next block of seats it cost them more - and so on until the last minute where you might get a last minute deal if they are desperate to sell the remaining seats.
I used to 'commute' weekly from Bristol up to either EDI or GLA with Easy Jet - If I booked early enough I could fly for peanuts,so I used to book as far ahead as possible (obviously),after a while I also realised that if I booked the 'wrong way round' I could change to an earlier flight on the friday without paying any extra (because ostensibly it was the 'return' leg and of course if any seats available),I rarely knew what time I was going to finish work on a friday so that was handy :).

[PAXboy]

I expect carriers to try high prices and low prices, to try sales and mileage inducements. The recent BA sale did not interest me as they (mostly) wanted to make them combined holidays with hotel, a natural way for them to increase revenue and very sensible.

[krismiler]

The problem is that airlines don't know what to charge. Prior to COVID they knew how many people wanted to fly LHR - JFK return on a given day and how much they were prepared to pay, the algorithms in the booking system tweeked the fares depending on supply and demand. Now it's just a stab in the dark until things settle down and a basis to plan on is arrived at, assumptions are being made which may not happen regarding opening of borders and numbers of pax.

Personally, I would hold off until there was more certainty. If you're determined then only book on a major airline which is likely to survive and look at the refund policy, travel credits on a financially iffy airline which only operates on a single route that you'd want to fly wouldn't be much use. If I was in the UK, I'd be happier buying a BA ticket as they aren't as bad financially as some of the others, and if I got travel credits they'd be useable in future.

Note that hotel bookings for peak winter season destinations towards the end of the year are well up, it would be worth making a no deposit booking for accommodation as well if you buy an air ticket.

[paulc]

I have flights booked to the usa for July 2021 which were a rebooking from 2020 ones that were cancelled. I dont hold out much hope of using them though. Also i want to see family overseas but the country currently has a ban on uk citizens and rigerous quarantine requirements so am holding off booking flights until that changes. Given the current status of certain middle east places it does seem prudent to avoid transiting through there.

[wub]

I have an existing booking in business class to Singapore in November 🤞I checked the cost of an upgrade to first and was delighted to find that it was £29.50.

[Cymmon]

I'm hoping to visit Manila from Manchester, just checked, it's £800 cheaper to book from Amsterdam then add on fare from Manchester. Exactly same flights!!!!

[Asturias56]

Always has been - we save vast amounts of cash by flying people from the UK to CGD, DUB, AMS or MUN for onward long haul flights