much of world reopening in March 2021

[getaway]

what about Australia ?

It seems cases of that virus so low in Qld, they are searching thru sewerage for traces

WTTC forecasts return of 100 million tourism jobs (travelmole.com) (https://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?c=setreg&region=4&m_id=s~Y!m_r_rn&w_id=38517&news_id=2045817)

[Harbour Dweller]

Rather than Australia, take a gander at the continuing infection rate and deaths in the northern hemisphere.

March 2021 they say. As Australian royalty once said ‘tell him he’s dreaming!’

[Fonz121]

The virus has peaked. Cases are starting to continually run under the seven day average in countries where they’ve started vaccinating people. Deaths are still high but they lag behind cases and they’ll soon be on the decline as well. Not sure if it’s the vaccine or the virus running out of steam on its own. Either way, I think we’ve turned the corner and can start looking forward to better days.

Of course it doesn’t help when Brendan Murphy is on tv saying that he doesn’t think we can open borders even with a vaccinated population. If someone could explain that logic to me that would be appreciated.

[Global Aviator]

I would be the first person to welcome world travel. I certainly miss well... travel!

Interestingly -

QF have LHR flights available from July.
Jetstar have flights DRW to SIN from March 29th.

Now I know this has been discussed in other threads, but really, March? Seriously is this not taking the p*ss???


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x686/51d3c2f5_997a_4839_86bf_b2aec9b55e14_ce78d7f11b3891e56924ad3 25269d9534fd5bd64.jpeg
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x1113/05521f6f_904d_4793_a998_99bbde6837b7_90de0224981da3821c1d25a 030ecfaeb96efe45e.jpeg

[Momoe]

WTTC prediction is not bullish, it's dreamtiming. Anticipating a 17% downfall compared to 2019 is ridiculous. Australia may have the virus under control (good job BTW) but even if Europe/USA are fully vaccinated by mid year, the net reduction in income is going to severely affect travel for years.
Some jobs are never going to return, online shopping/working has moved forward exponentially due to the pandemic so high street retail is going to shrink even further (and it wasn't in good shape before the pandemic).
That's just one example, think pubs, theatre, cinema, tourism, office real estate and you're scratching the surface.

[NGsim]

Of course it doesn’t help when Brendan Murphy is on tv saying that he doesn’t think we can open borders even with a vaccinated population. If someone could explain that logic to me that would be appreciated.

That’s a fairly easy explanation. Mr Murphy’s job is solely related to health related results. Any risk potentially jeopardizes those results even if social and financial results greatly surpass the ‘cost’ in our eyes.

We have a funny attitude toward risk and consequence in our industry.
We manage small to medium risk incredibly well however we don’t typically face litigation issues in the public eye when significant pilot error is raised because we generally don’t survive to be litigated!
Unlike in most other industries where the appetite for risk has reduced to basically zero to the point that people are too afraid to make decisions.

[getaway]

I would be the first person to welcome world travel. I certainly miss well... travel!

Interestingly -

QF have LHR flights available from July.
Jetstar have flights DRW to SIN from March 29th.

Now I know this has been discussed in other threads, but really, March? Seriously is this not taking the p*ss???


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x686/51d3c2f5_997a_4839_86bf_b2aec9b55e14_ce78d7f11b3891e56924ad3 25269d9534fd5bd64.jpeg
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x1113/05521f6f_904d_4793_a998_99bbde6837b7_90de0224981da3821c1d25a 030ecfaeb96efe45e.jpeg
why not ? 24 hours is a very long time in politics. It's got nothing to do with health anymore.

[getaway]

Rather than Australia, take a gander at the continuing infection rate and deaths in the northern hemisphere.

March 2021 they say. As Australian royalty once said ‘tell him he’s dreaming!’
so how do we know the actual deaths rate from corona cf. old age ? We don't. All we have is dodgy media beating this up.

[Global Aviator]

The problem is if inbound 14 day quarantine is still a requirement... What about the caps?

I’ll certainly be one of the first to travel when I can.

I do agree 24 minutes is a lifetime in Aussie politics!

[Kickstarter]

The problem is if inbound 14 day quarantine is still a requirement... What about the caps?

I’ll certainly be one of the first to travel when I can.

I do agree 24 minutes is a lifetime in Aussie politics!
no quarantine for inbound kiwis

[DanV2]

So much BNEA320 alters in this thread, I wonder how many of his numerous accounts will post here.

[jonkster]

so how do we know the actual deaths rate from corona cf. old age ? We don't. All we have is dodgy media beating this up.

look at excess mortality figures for different countries. This doesn't record cause of death just is a comparison of current deaths compared to expected averages. It is way above average. Based on that something is killing people at a rate even higher than the official covid counts.

Look at freezer trucks parked outside hospitals in many cities in the UK and US because there isn't enough room in the mortuaries. Look at the occupancy of ICU beds compared to normal. Something is making people sicker and is killing people at a (much) higher rate than normal.

I am struggling to avoid being sarcastic but when I see photos of what is happening in hospitals in the UK and US and hear the stories of everyday nurses and doctors on the front line of this (ie not the media or politicians) and their heartbreaking stories and courage to keep going, I shake my head when people start trying to say it is all a myth. The dodgy media is not 'all we have'. Go and visit a hospital ICU in London or SF if you want to prove your case that it is all just a beat up. Talk to the people who are in the front line and tell them they are just beating things up.

rant off

[Green.Dot]

Thanks BNEA320 for starting another thread talking about exactly the same stuff.

Very original.

[Sailvi767]

Keep in mind that the number of excess deaths is not all covid. People are skipping normal preventive medical care and in some locations most elective medical procedures were stopped. In addition mental health issues have led to a increase in suicide. Another thing is that the flu season is non existent! In the US hospitals get additional funds for covid patients but not for flu patients. Virtually no flu deaths. Perhaps some are being miss categorized!

[Momoe]

Sailvi767,

Fair point but there is an element of you making the case for Covid. Because healthcare is at breaking point dealing with Covid, non-critical cases are not being seen, very few people are skipping appointments because they are gold dust and you literally could be dead before the next one; having said that some folk are fearful of getting Covid and are not calling in health issues, even though most doctors are doing virtual surgeries.
Covid is a prime factor in many mental health issues, stuck at home, unable to socialise and in a lot of cases concerns about money, job etc.

Covid is the killer, directly or indirectly.

[Deltasierra010]

March is optimistic, that’s only 6 weeks time, although I do expect travel to be allowed by Easter, is there really very much extra infection by international travel compared with infection transmission within the UK. We are seeing a peak now, vaccination is in full swing, there is every chance of a steep decline, the next 4 weeks will tell us, if deaths are still high it’s going to be a long haul.

[Northern Monkey]

Travel isn't going to be allowed by Easter in my view.

What we are going to see is an "at all costs" approach to protecting the progress made through vaccination. In effect this means seriously tough measures at the borders to prevent any vaccine resistant strain entering the UK [insert other country here]. I think travel will only open up when other countries see their levels of infection drop dramatically such that the chance of importing anything nasty is deemed to be negligible.

I think everyone thought with these vaccines coming along that 2021 could be a good year. What is becoming clear is that it won't be and this is all going to take a lot longer than we thought.

[LostWanderer]

From what I have read, there is a strong belief amongst some in the medical/scientific community that the virus is still able to be carried and spread by those vaccinated to those who are not.

If this has has even the slightest possibility of happening, nothing other than very few “bubble” destinations will be open for travel in the next 6-8 or even 12 months unless the government pulls off a miracle and vaccinates the entire country, studies the effectiveness and finds no risks for reopening travel overseas by June. Basically it’s in “tell him he’s dreaming” territory.

London, the US, Japan and most other destinations at all this year in my opinion is extremely unlikely to happen, other than the odd repatriation, charter or maybe a cargo run. Hope to be proven wrong so I can get out of my sh##ty side hustle and back to the skies.

[1A_Please]

I sort of wonder why I'm bothering replying to another pointless BNEA320 (aka Sybil) thread. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, he continues to believe that int'l travel is going to return to 2019 levels at any tick of the clock. He seems to believe Covid is a giant hoax solely created so he can't have a skiing trip to Whistler this northern winter.

The facts are QF has opened bookings from 1/7 but the government has been clear that they will control the border reopening not QF and 1/7 is not a realistic date and won't happen. Brendan Murphy (head of Health Dept and former CHO) has clearly stated he doesn't believe there will be any meaningful int'l travel in 2021. The Australian vaccination program is due to run throughout the year with an aim for all willing Australians to be vaccinated by the end of October. From October, the government will evaluate how other countries are progressing with their vaccination programs including the CoVax program which is aimed to deliver vaccines to poorer countries. Only then, will they consider reopening the border to quarantine-free travel.

At the same time, the world through the WHO, UN and all international airlines has to develop a system whereby vaccination statuses can be checked by countries for all passengers prior to embarkation. This will probably be via some sort of tracking within e-passports but getting a common system across all countries within 10 months is quite a challenge.

[jonkster]

Keep in mind that the number of excess deaths is not all covid. People are skipping normal preventive medical care and in some locations most elective medical procedures were stopped. In addition mental health issues have led to a increase in suicide. Another thing is that the flu season is non existent! In the US hospitals get additional funds for covid patients but not for flu patients. Virtually no flu deaths. Perhaps some are being miss categorized!

so you are saying the reason that ICUs are overflowing with people suffering acute respiratory distress, hospitals are running short of oxygen and they are parking freezer trucks for dead bodies outside hospitals in a country that regularly describes itself as having the most advanced health care capability in the world, is because: it is the flu, that there is a higher number of suicides and because people aren't having elective procedures or are skipping regular health checks and the alternative explanation (that there is a viral infection that has traveled world wide) is all a huge conspiracy by the world's media, hospital administrators across the globe and most of the world's politicians and most nations health authorities for some unspecified (but I assume nefarious) reason. Is that correct?

A world wide viral infection seems way more believable to me. Maybe I am just gullible though .

Or you are trolling in which case well played, 'cause I bit.

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

Whilst I can understand various airlines wanting to get some 'cash flow' dollars in, by advertising these fares available.....I wonder just what their 'provisions' are for granting an IMMEDIATE FULL REFUND if / when said advertised flights fail to eventuate?

Just curious us all......

[1A_Please]

Whilst I can understand various airlines wanting to get some 'cash flow' dollars in, by advertising these fares available.....I wonder just what their 'provisions' are for granting an IMMEDIATE FULL REFUND if / when said advertised flights fail to eventuate?

Just curious us all......
There is little doubt that they are selling these fares in breach of the Trade Practices Act in that they are accepting funds for the provision of goods and services that they have no likelihood of being able to fulfil.

[Foxxster]

There is little doubt that they are selling these fares in breach of the Trade Practices Act in that they are accepting funds for the provision of goods and services that they have no likelihood of being able to fulfil.

yep.

and as expected and so obviously, we now have leaks of the Japanese government cancelling the Olympic Games.

anyone seriously saying that Australians or anyone will be flying to the UK, mainland Europe, the USA etc in July is utterly deluded.

Singapore is a maybe perhaps. As potentially are places like NZ or Vanuatu, Fiji etc. However I would think that seeing as no official announcement had been made by these governments or is likely in the next month or so, advertising tickets to such places now again is very very questionable indeed.

And there is the fact that we haven’t started our vaccination program yet and won’t until February or March and certainly will not have a significant percentage of the population vaccinated by July. So given Qantas itself and presumably the government of the country you are visiting will require proof of vaccination, how can anyone be certain they will have been vaccinated by then. The elderly, front line workers and other vulnerable groups will be first up.

I hope serious legal action is taken against both Qantas and its CEO.

[krismiler]

Back in the early days of the pandemic, airlines were routinely cancelling flights and refunds were often delayed or offered as travel credits for future flights. This is not acceptable, someone stuck overseas may have limited funds available on their credit card and might need to buy a ticket on another airline. Future travel credit is no good if you aren’t going to fly on the same airline in the foreseeable future, eg Air New Zealand ticket bought to attend a wedding in Auckland.

However, airlines need certainty about numbers before they schedule flights therefore a system whereby funds are blocked on the customer’s credit card and only released once the flight has taken place would be reasonable to both parties. The customer gets charged if he has booked but doesn’t take the flight, which stops people making bookings with multiple airlines to try their luck. The funds get unblocked if the airline cancels so that the customer can immediately try an alternative.

It’s fair to both sides.

[Boe787]

Governments are supporting Airlines all over the globe.
It is not fair for any Airline in this current pandemic to accept money, and not be lawfully enforced to refund in full within 30 days!
Continued Government assistance should be conditional, on Airlines refunding in 30 Days.

[PoppaJo]

Then you have rubbish like this. I heard of cases in the early days of the Virgin mess with customers successfully gaining a credit card charge back against them, to which Virgjn called them and advised if they proceeded they will cancel their frequent flyer membership permanently and bar them from travel.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2020/11/25/virgin-travel-credit-refunds/amp/

[Derfred]

So, let me get this straight...

Numerous airlines have been flying RPT services into and out off Australia throughout the pandemic, and that has been regarded as A Good Thing, even to the point where when one airline suggested suspending its services for a week or two it became Shock Horror Front Page News.

Many people who bought tickets on these airlines have had their tickets cancelled due Government restrictions.

But when an Australian airline starts selling tickets for flights 6 months away, it’s suddenly Take Them To Court for Fraudulent Sales Practices?

[601]

But when an Australian airline starts selling tickets for flights 6 months away, it’s suddenly Take Them To Court for Fraudulent Sales Practices?


But what is easy to see is the lack of support by the Australian airlines in scheduling services to get Aussies back home.
But it is OK to do a swan around Oz before flying out leaving a bit roo in the sky.
Those flights could have been turned into a lot of brownie points instead of a self indulgent jolly.

[Duck Pilot]

What about the Tennis players? Double
standards?

[Derfred]

But what is easy to see is the lack of support by the Australian airlines in scheduling services to get Aussies back home..

Support of what? Passenger seats inbound are plentiful. Government caps are what’s limiting.

[krismiler]

Will QF guarantee an immediate refund in full if the flight fails to operate for any reason ? If so then no problem.

[clipstone1]

Unlikely, they haven't refunded my booking for domestic flights from March 2020. They insisted on issuing a voucher to be used before Feb 2022, yet I am in the UK and cannot travel to Australia and use the voucher which is restricted to the same named passengers on another domestic booking.

UK office of Qantas is largely unreachable, I am told I need to contact Australia since my booking was on the Australian website (as it has to be to book only domestic flights).

QF will have held my cash for 2 years before I can get the credit card to undertake a charge back, since they don't consider the service as not having been provided because I have a voucher.

[Chris2303]

What about the Tennis players? Double
standards?

And, in NZ, 466 America's "essential workers".

[Lazyload]

Will QF guarantee an immediate refund in full if the flight fails to operate for any reason ? If so then no problem.
I did secure a QF refund for a cancelled return leg but it takes 13 weeks (yes weeks) for it to be processed.

[73to91]

Post 28. Lack of support 601 might just relate to number of cabin crew who ‘are current’ on type. My daughter is and has been offered the latest offer of 56 (I think that’s what she said) day roster. Based in DRW, fly to UK, return to DRW for quarantine, wait for next flight, repeat but can return home for a week, back to DRW and repeat, repeat. She and her girl friends are not interested, most have other jobs now. Previously she knocked flights back because she had to decide on the spot but QF had no idea of quarantine requirements. It makes it hard for the airline.

Post 32. Clipstone, it’s the same with the likes of StripADeal, people had to accept a credit offer last March for travel by the end of 2021. They simply say speak to your insurance company, only hope for many is a class action, that is with a large Sydney firm.

Post 33. Chris, Qld has had essential workers flown in from Timor and Vanuatu but close their border to the southern states. Victorian is flying essential workers from the Pacific islands, Tassie has as well. Talk about a rule for some.

[krismiler]

I can definitely see a class action and possibly changes in the law over this issue. If I made a booking for a meal in a restaurant and found they were closed when I arrived, but had charged my credit card anyway for the full cost of the meal, I wouldn’t be expected to accept a voucher for another meal sometime in the future.

No service = Full refund.

[WingNut60]

I can definitely see a class action and possibly changes in the law over this issue. If I made a booking for a meal in a restaurant and found they were closed when I arrived, but had charged my credit card anyway for the full cost of the meal, I wouldn’t be expected to accept a voucher for another meal sometime in the future.

No service = Full refund.

I believe this to be the case under EU regs.
I am currently pondering whether to take a full refund or make a re-booking with Ryanair - UK to France.
Importantly, the choice is mine.

[krismiler]

Some countries offer a choice of a full cash refund or an additional amount if taken as a travel credit eg.120% of the fare in the form of a travel voucher which is perfectly reasonable. Future travel credit may be worthless to someone who booked a domestic flight during a holiday in a country he won't be returning to, on an airline which doesn't serve any routes he can use. Also if the ticket was purchased by someone who travels very little, for a particular event such as a job interview or wedding, then credit is also little use.

A voucher would be beneficial to someone who travels a lot on that particular airline and would welcome an extra 20% value when making his next booking.

Either way, it should be the customers choice as to the form of refund when the promised service isn't delivered.

[wheels_down]

The ACCC has no balls when it comes to airlines. They hang the retailers out to dry over faulty and refund purchases but Alan as always got away with it? What’s the story? I don’t care if it’s a marginal business.

They let the credit card, per passenger, per sector, rort drag on for about a decade too long, thanks to Jetstar testing the waters. Then they ban it, and because they had become so accustomed to running the business from these sorts of rorts, they upped airfares by 5%.

We would be the most unprotected country on earth in regards to passenger air rights. Much headway has been made in the EU and USA. An investigation needs to be conducted, in regards to the relationship between airliners and the regulator’s board. Seems too cosy.

[ANstar]

The virus has peaked. Cases are starting to continually run under the seven day average in countries where they’ve started vaccinating people. \
Lets not forget most are still in some form of lockdown which would also describe the decline after the peak xmas/nye transmissions.

[currawong]

Well, this place is open...

:yuk:

"Wuhan has long since recovered from the world's first outbreak of Covid-19. It is now being remembered not as a disaster but as a victory, and with an insistence that the virus came from somewhere - anywhere - but here."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55765875

[Square Bear]

Hi Duck

Tennis players are little different...it’s all charter, and the numbers are additional to the arrival caps.

And as much as I like to watch Tennis the AO is being reported as if it might end in tears..hopefully not though, we need some inklings of normality.

And wrt Airlines selling seats for future flights, no problems...provided there is an immediate refund if the flight is cancelled. And really if the airlines want to start building confidence in travel (not that the individual Countries (States) of Australia are) immediate refund is one way of starting confidence.

[dr dre]

Lets not forget most are still in some form of lockdown which would also describe the decline after the peak xmas/nye transmissions.

Early data (and I must stress early) from Israel is showing a 30-60% drop in infections after the first dose compared to those who are unvaccinated, regardless of lockdown status. The vaccine doesn't reach full effectiveness until 2 weeks after the second dose, which has barely begun. And a few weeks yet for the numbers to show a decline in hospitalisation, ICU admission and death, which is it's real purpose. Still early days but it looks promising so far.

Another study showed 98% of healthcare workers vaccinated with two doses had high levels of antibodies, far higher than those who were infected with the virus and recovered:

Israeli hospital: 98% of staff who got 2nd shot have high-level COVID antibodies (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-hospital-98-of-staff-who-got-2nd-shot-have-high-level-covid-antibodies/)

[KABOY]

Early data (and I must stress early) from Israel is showing a 30-60% drop in infections after the first dose compared to those who are unvaccinated, regardless of lockdown status. The vaccine doesn't reach full effectiveness until 2 weeks after the second dose, which has barely begun. And a few weeks yet for the numbers to show a decline in hospitalisation, ICU admission and death, which is it's real purpose. Still early days but it looks promising so far.

Another study showed 98% of healthcare workers vaccinated with two doses had high levels of antibodies, far higher than those who were infected with the virus and recovered:

Israeli hospital: 98% of staff who got 2nd shot have high-level COVID antibodies (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-hospital-98-of-staff-who-got-2nd-shot-have-high-level-covid-antibodies/)

Depends if you are a glass half full or half empty

Boris Johnson says UK COVID-19 variant could pose higher risk of death - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-23/boris-johnson-says-uk-covid-19-variant-higher-risk-death/13085054)

[3Greens]

Depends if you are a glass half full or half empty

Boris Johnson says UK COVID-19 variant could pose higher risk of death - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-23/boris-johnson-says-uk-covid-19-variant-higher-risk-death/13085054)

taken out of context completely. What they actually said was that for a male over the age of 60 (at risk) there is an “possible” increase in mortality from 10 in 1000 to 13 in 1000 could expect to sadly die. The news outlets have reported this as an increase in mortality of 30%...lies lies and damn statistics I guess.

[cynphil]

Well the last time I was in school......10/1000 to 13/1000 was a 30% increase!

[3Greens]

Well the last time I was in school......10/1000 to 13/1000 was a 30% increase!

Perhaps you didn’t pay enough attention at school then to enable you to look at the detail behind the headlines?
what if you’re not an “at risk 60 year old male”? Turns out there’s not much change from the “old variant”; so it’s far from a 30 % increase in mortality. But perhaps it was a long time since you were last at school?

[Global Aviator]

Well the last time I was in school......10/1000 to 13/1000 was a 30% increase!

And I thought that we only needed to divide by 3 or was that multiply by 3 or was that add 3 to be an airline pilot! This is getting hard now. :uhoh:

[cynphil]

With very few deaths occurring worldwide in the under 60’s.....and the overwhelming majority of deaths occurring in the over 60’s......your argument just doesn’t stand up!

[Foxxster]

Perhaps you didn’t pay enough attention at school then to enable you to look at the detail behind the headlines?
what if you’re not an “at risk 60 year old male”? Turns out there’s not much change from the “old variant”; so it’s far from a 30 % increase in mortality. But perhaps it was a long time since you were last at school?


i wouldn’t pay any attention to anything coming out of the UK. . Boris Johnson yesterday revealed that the Kent coronavirus strain - responsible for the soaring Covid cases recorded in the last month - could be 30 per cent more deadly than older versions of the virus.

However the PM has been accused of 'scaremongering' after failing to present any evidence to back up the terrifying development.

And the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) - the body of scientists which has advised the Government throughout the pandemic - are only 50 per cent sure the new variant could be more fatal.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) - the subcommittee of Sage which discussed the deadliness of the new strain on Thursday - said the claim that the variant is 30 per cent more lethal is on a 'very fragile' base of evidence and accused the Government of 'exploiting public fear' over the virus.

He told website Reaction: ' The 30 per cent more lethal claim about the virus rests on a very fragile and uncertain base of evidence. NERVTAG has expressed limited confidence in this figure, which should not be the basis for public alarm.'

'It is right not to hide possibly bad news but it is also quite wrong to exploit it to increase public fear and to try to shut down debates about the exit strategy from the current restrictions.'

Chief Scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said during the press conference that evidence the strain is indeed more deadly is still 'weak'.

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle today revealed it is not 'absolutely clear' if a mutation of the virus first found in Kent is more dangerous.

Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it is an 'open question' but not a 'game changer' in terms of dealing with the pandemic.

He said: ''The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open. There is evidence it is more dangerous but this is a very dangerous virus," he said.

'In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse.'

And Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, said it was still too early to be drawing 'strong conclusions' about the suggested increased mortality rate.

He said he was ‘quite surprised’ by the announcement and recommended waiting ‘a week or two more... before we draw really strong conclusions’.

[Anti Skid On]

With very few deaths occurring worldwide in the under 60’s.....and the overwhelming majority of deaths occurring in the over 60’s......your argument just doesn’t stand up!

Really, got a source for that wisdom? Never mind the consequences of the illness in many.

Maybe have a read of this, pretty horrid

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/23/gary-matthews-duped-by-lying-anti-vaxxers-his-death-is-at-their-door

[cynphil]

Many sources for the age related age deaths.......
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1577x1222/11bfb402_4655_45b8_81d0_38a3683e702b_0087d477fe95ad7d314319b e471dffd6154a6afa.png
And never was implying that any death or consequences from Covid were acceptable!

[McLimit]

I'm pretty sure that death is guaranteed? Regardless of whether coronavirus is involved. I'm also pretty sure that older and immuno compromised people are at higher risk to a whole range of infections when there are co-morbidities, or have people forgotten that?

[airdualbleedfault]

lies lies and damn statistics I guess

Or as Twain said "lies, damned lies and statistics :}

[Momoe]

Foxxster,

BoJo has previously been accused of not taking strong enough measures, now he's accused of over-reacting to a potential escalation event; Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

Noted that you've cherry picked statements from 'Experts', only 3 months ago 2 SAGE models were acknowledged as being grossly over estimated.

By all means ignore everything in the UK - Except the death rate, we're the 6th highest death rate globally and barring a miracle will hit 100k deaths today, the death rate has been increasing, some of it down to Xmas/New year get togethers admittedly but we're at a point where being over-cautious might just save a few lives.

[Dannyboy39]

To go back to the original post, there is no way Europe will be opening up before Easter.

Mortality data coming out of the UK as of the end of 2020: 80,830 registered deaths with Covid-19 in the UK.
Under 10 years: 4 deaths
Under 20 years: 20 deaths - 0.02% of all deaths
Under 30 years: 124 deaths - 0.15%
Under 40 years: 436 deaths - 0.54%
Under 50 years: 1,499 deaths - 1.85%
Under 60 years: 4,969 deaths - 6.15%
Under 70 years: 12,806 deaths - 15.84%
Under 80 years: 31,505 deaths - 38.98%
Under 90 years: 63,426 deaths - 78.47%
Over 90 years: 17,404 deaths - 21.53%

Clearly it is astonishingly small for someone under the age of 30 to die from this disease and with vaccination, we hope within the next month 85% of deaths will be prevented. That said, one of the real concerns of recent weeks is the number of 30-50 years olds currently admitted to hospital with the newer strains. We simply cannot let our guard down but this virus is also not going to go anywhere anytime soon. If we lockdown forever, we won't be able to pay for the nurses and doctors to take care of us.

[Anti Skid On]

I was browsing FR24 yesterday; Emirates have A380's operating a daily service to LHR, MAN and CDG, not sure of the loadings, or if this is because they've run out of B777's

[Maggie Island]

QR8831(77W) departed Doha at 294 tonnes bound for Sydney which is somewhat heartening!

[Chris2303]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/300214068/covid19-australia-suspends-oneway-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-after-new-case

[magyarflyer]

The ACCC has no balls when it comes to airlines. They hang the retailers out to dry over faulty and refund purchases but Alan as always got away with it? What’s the story? I don’t care if it’s a marginal business.

They let the credit card, per passenger, per sector, rort drag on for about a decade too long, thanks to Jetstar testing the waters. Then they ban it, and because they had become so accustomed to running the business from these sorts of rorts, they upped airfares by 5%.

We would be the most unprotected country on earth in regards to passenger air rights. Much headway has been made in the EU and USA. An investigation needs to be conducted, in regards to the relationship between airliners and the regulator’s board. Seems too cosy.

I bought a DFW budapest ticket with BA with a 2 hr stop on London for March. Got an email from BA cancelling my London budapest leg. Was able to get a refund for that. When I tried to get a refund for the DFW London leg = impossible
all I get is a voucher value for a year. BA does not answer the phones anywhere
talk about a scam ......

[Dannyboy39]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/300214068/covid19-australia-suspends-oneway-travel-bubble-with-new-zealand-after-new-case
Someone sneezed then...

[Chris2303]

Someone sneezed then...

Yep - associated with other returnees whilst in isolation.

She caught the South African strain in the Low Countries

[Dannyboy39]

Yep - associated with other returnees whilst in isolation.

She caught the South African strain in the Low Countries
And despite all of the effort, the virus still gets in.

Spoiler alert: zero Covid isn’t going to work.

[Bend alot]

FYI - Sweden has since almost the start had some restrictions "recommendations" they call them. On 14 December they increased them including number of people to max 8 for many things.

On 2/10/2020 Sweden reported 93,615 total cases with 5,893 deaths.
On 25/1/2021 Sweden reported 547,144 total cases with 11,318 deaths.

[SOPS]

i wouldn’t pay any attention to anything coming out of the UK. . Boris Johnson yesterday revealed that the Kent coronavirus strain - responsible for the soaring Covid cases recorded in the last month - could be 30 per cent more deadly than older versions of the virus.

However the PM has been accused of 'scaremongering' after failing to present any evidence to back up the terrifying development.

And the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) - the body of scientists which has advised the Government throughout the pandemic - are only 50 per cent sure the new variant could be more fatal.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) - the subcommittee of Sage which discussed the deadliness of the new strain on Thursday - said the claim that the variant is 30 per cent more lethal is on a 'very fragile' base of evidence and accused the Government of 'exploiting public fear' over the virus.

He told website Reaction: ' The 30 per cent more lethal claim about the virus rests on a very fragile and uncertain base of evidence. NERVTAG has expressed limited confidence in this figure, which should not be the basis for public alarm.'

'It is right not to hide possibly bad news but it is also quite wrong to exploit it to increase public fear and to try to shut down debates about the exit strategy from the current restrictions.'

Chief Scientific advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said during the press conference that evidence the strain is indeed more deadly is still 'weak'.

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle today revealed it is not 'absolutely clear' if a mutation of the virus first found in Kent is more dangerous.

Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it is an 'open question' but not a 'game changer' in terms of dealing with the pandemic.

He said: ''The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open. There is evidence it is more dangerous but this is a very dangerous virus," he said.

'In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse.'

And Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, said it was still too early to be drawing 'strong conclusions' about the suggested increased mortality rate.

He said he was ‘quite surprised’ by the announcement and recommended waiting ‘a week or two more... before we draw really strong conclusions’.

Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting.

[Momoe]

SOPS,

Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting.

Quite right old chap, leave the acting to the la-di-da types while we crack on with getting the first Covid vaccine approved and get a vaccination program underway which is currently at >4M and ramping up.

Do keep up

[Double_Clutch]

How is this premonition of “opening up” going so far.

[Dannyboy39]

Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting.
Just the 7m doses given so far.

In all seriousness, there has been a definite change in tone in recent weeks - with numbers going through the roof in December, the media have been encouraged to show the darkest side of this virus as a reminder of the grave consequences. Yes lockdown helps, but the numbers have significant reduced in the last week or two.

[barryt]

I have some "smoking gun" questions, which nobody seems willing to answer, (or can't properly answer for me), based on proper scientific evidence.

I believe they are rather fundamental and very important questions, and until they are answered, the world should just STOP doing everything it is doing now, and answer them properly first, because until it does, nothing else matters really...and we are all just simply wasting our time over the so-called "virus".

Fundamental Question 1:
Why, on a continent populated almost entirely by poor people, where poverty is rife, most of it...extreme poverty....on a continent...which has little-to-no medical facilities to serve its general populace...on a continent....where it's people have little-to-no medical science appreciation or understanding, and frankly could not care less really, about any sort of "virus" or having to wear a mask, when all they can mostly think of daily, is where their next decent meal is coming from....a continent...such as AFRICA...

After almost ONE FULL YEAR NOW of "virus exposure"....why then, is (at least half) of its population not already dead and decimated by the virus?

If one is to believe everything we have been told by medical science, governments and all the rest, about the virulence, contagiousness, and deadliness of the virus, why then, have we not seen Africa's population being at least reduced by HALF, over the last YEAR now?

Nobody either wants to, or can, properly explain this to me, based on scientific fact.

So then, by implication, we must ask a further fundamental question, if we do not have a proper scientific answer to the first:

Fundamental Question 2:
Are we to believe that somehow black people are different, genetically or biologically, to white people?

If not, then I tend towards the theory that the "virus story" we've all been sold, must in fact then, be nothing but a crock of sh_t...otherwise, all things being "equal", half of Africa's population should be dead already...and we should have seen veritable funeral pires of burning bodies on TV these last few months....but we have not.

You can't have your cake and eat it.

Either black people are different somehow genetically or biologically to white people, or the "virus story" we've all been sold, is a crock of sh_t.

It's really quite simple - take your pick and make your choice - you can only choose one, by logical deduction.

"But people are dying everywhere! Even my friend! Even my grandfather!" I hear you say.

Right...but in case you didn't notice...they always HAVE been....and so will you, one day.

And...all your "claimed deaths" in your recently pronounced statement quoted above, STILL DO NOT...answer my 2 fundamental questions above, ANYWAY, so its a meaningless statement you have claiming all the "deaths" in the above statement, in the bigger scheme of things, is it not?

The figures for COVID deaths just don't justify the extraordinary measures which have been taken around the world, and which have damaged economies and livelihoods around the world.

It does not take a genius to see that.

Until my 2 "fundamental questions" above are properly and scientifically answered and justified, I have no alternative but to believe the entire world has been sold a crock of "sh_t" as a story (the entire "corona virus story"), and has been nothing but sold down the proverbial river...

The question THEN would be, WHY?

And THAT, would probably fill an entire forum of responses...

I don't have the answer to THAT...nor will I even venture to speculate...but one thing is for sure, I am not a "conspiracy theorist"...I just want my basic 2 questions answered please.

Thank you for your time.

[D9009]

I have some "smoking gun" questions, which nobody seems willing to answer, (or can't properly answer for me), based on proper scientific evidence.

Fundamental Question 1:
Why, on a continent populated almost entirely by poor people, where poverty is rife, most of it...extreme poverty....on a continent...which has little-to-no medical facilities to serve its general populace...on a continent....where it's people have little-to-no medical science appreciation or understanding, and frankly could not care less really, about any sort of "virus" or having to wear a mask, when all they can mostly think of daily, is where their next decent meal is coming from....a continent...such as AFRICA...

After almost ONE FULL YEAR NOW of "virus exposure"....why then, is half of its population not already dead and decimated by the virus?

If one is to believe everything we have been told by medical science, governments and all the rest, about the virulence, contagiousness, and deadliness of the virus, why then, have we not seen Africa's population being at least reduced by HALF, over the last YEAR now?

Nobody either wants to, or can, properly explain this to me, based on scientific fact.

So then, by implication, we must ask a further fundamental question, if we do not have a proper scientific answer to the first:

How about a common sense answer......

Do people in Africa in general go to the shops, drive around in cars, travel by rail, go on holiday by air, use mass transit systems as much as those in the developed world?

[kingRB]

Why would half of Africa be dead? The IFR is less than 1%. Therein lies the problem....

[barryt]

Nice try D9009. Its much much worse than that. Until you've properly visited Africa yourself and witnessed the mass "squatter camps" where these people live, where most basically live on top of each other, with little-to-no sanitary "features" even...in their HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS...(making your quoted train trips and shopping mall expeditions look like school-girl picnics by comparison in terms of transmissibility potential of the virus)...you will not understand I'm afraid.

[barryt]

Why would half of Africa be dead? The IFR is less than 1%. Therein lies the problem....

Not sure what you mean by that? If you mean little-to-no IFR capability, knowledge, or appreciation (IFR being compared to medical science appreciation and respect, by the general populace, who will quicker trust ancestral beliefs, bones thrown on the ground and so-called "witch doctors", or government ministers complaining (literally) on national TV that dead bodies should not be wrapped in plastic bags because then they struggle to breathe (I kid you not!), then it emphasizes my point actually...half of its population should be dead already...at least in theory anyway, if we are to believe everything we have been told by our own medical scientists, governments, etc...

"Problem" is...they are NOT half dead...after nearly a FULL ONE YEAR now of virus exposure, MASS EXPOSURE, due to the living conditions the vast majority live under, in the midst of all the poverty, illiteracy, and general ignorance of medical science by the general populace of Africa, hence my original fundamental questions, earlier.

[Stick Flying]

There is a great void between a fraction of 1% and 50%. Even with poor medical facilities, that void is I'm afraid unrealistic to bridge.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Not sure what you mean by that? If you mean little-to-no IFR capability, knowledge, or appreciation (IFR being compared to medical science appreciation and respect, by the general populace, who will quicker trust ancestral beliefs, bones thrown on the ground and so-called "witch doctors", or government ministers complaining (literally) on national TV that dead bodies should not be wrapped in plastic bags because then they struggle to breathe (I kid you not!), then it emphasizes my point actually...half of its population should be dead already...at least in theory anyway, if we are to believe everything we have been told by our own medical scientists, governments, etc...

"Problem" is...they are NOT half dead...after nearly a FULL ONE YEAR now of virus exposure, MASS EXPOSURE, due to the living conditions the vast majority live under, in the midst of all the poverty, illiteracy, and general ignorance of medical science by the general populace of Africa, hence my original fundamental questions, earlier.

I think you missed a closing bracket. Here, have mine :-)

[dr dre]

Actually plenty of simple reasons for lower Covid rates in Africa, less public mobility, fewer aged care homes, a robust community health service that exists in most nations.....
But most importantly a younger average population age so fewer in the older age brackets that are most affected.

[D9009]

Nice try D9009.

ok i’ll try again......cars, trains, aeroplanes, subways, trams, helicopters, ships, all somewhat absent in the mass “squatter camps”

[SOPS]

SOPS,

Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting.

Quite right old chap, leave the acting to the la-di-da types while we crack on with getting the first Covid vaccine approved and get a vaccination program underway which is currently at >4M and ramping up.

Do keep up

Well 100000 dead in the UK and arguments about hotel quarantine. I am keeping up just fine.


https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/uk-residents-rage-over-australiastyle-hotel-quarantine-plans/news-story/831302af4bebc303c2b7b573067fb3bb

[barryt]

ok i’ll try again......cars, trains, aeroplanes, subways, trams, helicopters, ships, all somewhat absent in the mass “squatter camps”

So if I understand you correctly, there is "somewhat" no transport in Africa then?

Is that it?

Never really been to Africa, have you?

Here...catch a glimpse :

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/285x177/train_064d0858cc611f1083d4edffb15aa24769d1341c.jpg

[D9009]

barry mate, I can supply the answer, the common sense you'll have to source yourself

[barryt]

Actually plenty of simple reasons for lower Covid rates in Africa, less public mobility, fewer aged care homes, a robust community health service that exists in most nations.....
But most importantly a younger average population age so fewer in the older age brackets that are most affected.

Less public mobility? Are you kidding me? See previous post...

Fewer aged care homes? What exactly, does that have to do with the virus not spreading?

Less "robust community health service that exists in most nations"...exactly my point. So in theory then,...we should be seeing WAY WAY more deaths in Africa, no?

"But most importantly a younger average population age so fewer in the older age brackets that are most affected"

You may be onto something there. However, is it really only the old that die then, because of COVID, mainly? Not what the medical scientists, governments etc want us to believe, and are getting quite vocal lately that "everybody is vulnerable, no matter the age". I've even
seen babies with COVID on TV lately...

If it WAS (only) the "old" that are so vulnerable as you suggest ...then why shut down entire economies? Why not just quarantine all the aged and frail...not the entire population?

Nope. Still doesn't answer my fundamental questions, which questions, are flying in the face of the media, "our" so-called "medical scientists", and governments so brutally.

I struggle to believe its not all bollocks, because those questions refuse to be answered properly. Most frustrating.

One of my greatest wishes these days is for the average person on this planet to just start thinking a bit for themselves, and (at least) start asking questions, without fear of being lambasted or labelled a "dissident" of sorts. They are important questions, and they demand decent answers, before we commit to the "program", whatever program that is....

I've pondered a lot over the reason people don't ask enough, or the right questions, generally. Most just seem to be in a coma of sorts, and swallow everything as gospel truth, hook line and sinker, and "run with the program".

Are they just too "thick" (in general)?

Are they just too scared maybe?

OR, (and here's my little theory)….most on this planet find "life" to be hard, in the best of circumstances...and when offered a "way out"....where they can go "hide" and not have to "face" anything in usual day-to-day life...the difficulties of life....a "safe place"...such as a space that a COVID lock down provides...then they run to it and cling to it with both hands...because in that way they can escape...gotten very good also at it...in "supporting", "propping up", and "protecting" their new-found "safe space" which was introduced with COVID and lockdowns...they don't even know what they are doing or have done to themselves already - perhaps this is why not enough proper simple questions are asked, (and properly answered), generally speaking, and decent answers demanded - its almost like everybody went into a coma as far as I am concerned, because they all know that if they had to ask the tough questions, they might just have to give up their new-found "safe space"...has
the average person on this planet just become a "dumb mute" and gotten to behaving like a simple robot now?

Seems to me nearly everybody on this planet is now very well versed on how to die...and few seem to be able to remember anymore how to LIVE.

Except in Africa. Where the average poor person doesn't give a toss...just wants to LIVE.

What was that great line in the movie Shawshank Redemption?

"Get busy living, or get busy dyeing"....

We are killing ourselves, slowly but surely....

Except in Africa it seems.

[barryt]

barry mate, I can supply the answer, the common sense you'll have to source yourself

Please supply it then.

Common sense? Please help me to improve my mind and "common sense" as you call it, and show me where I am lacking any...happy to face and take any sort of "music" you have.

Go ahead, I'm waiting...

[Stick Flying]

Barry,
Forgive me if I'm wrong but I believe you had 2 questions.
1. Why hasn't half of Africa died? I'm afraid the answer to this is you are using either flawed or propaganda skewed mathematics.
2. Are different races genetically different? Yes they are. But don't confuse races that have departed their original habitats with those still there. Over a period of time the race's will change (its called evolution).

Everything else you seem to be venting off on seems to point to a conspiracy (something you strangely suggest you are not a believer of).

[barryt]

Barry,
Forgive me if I'm wrong but I believe you had 2 questions.
1. Why hasn't half of Africa died? I'm afraid the answer to this is you are using either flawed or propaganda skewed mathematics.
2. Are different races genetically different? Yes they are. But don't confuse races that have departed their original habitats with those still there. Over a period of time the race's will change (its called evolution).

Everything else you seem to be venting off on seems to point to a conspiracy (something you strangely suggest you are not a believer of).

Please stop insulting my intelligence, and simply answer the questions. Its no good "shooting the messenger" by implying some kind of "flawed or propaganda skewed mathematics"...or...."here we go again"...."You are a CONSPIRACY THEORY crackpot, see?!!"...which is the usual comment I get from somebody who cannot, or will not properly answer my very innocent, and quite simple questions...when they don't have the proper answers...then obviously the one asking the questions must be some kind of "dissident"...or "conspiracy theorist".

Ridiculous.

C'mon chap.. the facts are before us...no propoganda or "skewing"...anything.

Either, half of Africa's population is dead already, or it is not. Quite clearly, it is not. FACT.

When, all things being equal, if we are to believe everything we have been told by medical scientists and our governments, then they SHOULD BE HALF DEAD, already.

You say black people are different genetically than white people. Is that a known FACT? If it is...it's news to me, what are your sources? I'm keen to learn...

It would, however, go a long way to explaining things and answering my question, admittedly.

I wonder if black people would accept such a fact? Would they perhaps, be offended, if one told them something like "now lookey here fella, I am not simply 'your brother from a different mother - you are different to me, and you are not the same as me'"?

Not sure that would go down too well with a black person ;)

I just want my 2 easy-to-understand simple questions answered.

They still haven't been, conclusively, unless black people really are different to white people...in which case I will have another question, a question such as "how much different? And how exactly, are they different?"...but that would be for another forum.

[Stick Flying]

Barry,
I must humbly apologise as I am not sure you will find the answers you yearn here. But all is not lost, I am confident there are other forums that will provide solace.

[jonkster]

A factor to consider is the highest mortality rates for this are in the 60+ age groups. I think the figures for Africa are something like about 50% of the population is under 20. The over 60s are a small percentage of the population.

[Momoe]

barryt,

You could choose to believe "everything we have been told by medical scientists and our governments, then they SHOULD BE HALF DEAD"

Which is fine except, there are contradictions within the establishment, fake news if you wish.

You could also add India into the mix, 1.38 billion people, the majority living in (very) crowded cities but with a death rate roughly a seventh of South Africa's, go figure, damned if it makes sense to me.

Average death rate for Covid varies from Yemen with 29% down to 0.0%, this is case rate not per 100,000; so even in the worst case scenario a long way from your half, live long and prosper but beware of self-fulfilling prophets.

[Momoe]

Sops,

Appreciate the prompt response, however your premise was that "Seems to me these groups in the UK do a lot of talking and not much acting"

Was the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine talked into existence (in which case we should talk more often) and are we vacciinating >500k daily or just talking about it?

Maybe you'd prefer the Brazilian model where they do talk about it a lot and do f##k all

[dr dre]

Less public mobility? Are you kidding me? See previous post...


So one photo of a crowded train in Africa and you’ve figured out that the pandemic is a worldwide conspiracy huh?

Here’s an article written by scientists about why African pandemic numbers differ from the West. Read it, or don’t, but argue from a point of evidence:

COVID-19: examining theories for Africa’s low death rates (https://theconversation.com/covid-19-examining-theories-for-africas-low-death-rates-147393)

Get busy living, or get busy dying

Then why are you wasting your time on a pilot’s bulletin board then?

[rcsa]

Exactly. Simple stats here: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/22/populations-skew-older-in-some-of-the-countries-hit-hard-by-covid-19/ft_2020-04-22_covidglobalage_global310px/

Proportion of population of Europe aged over 60: 26% - median age 43
Proportion of population of Africa aged over 60: 6% - median age 20

There are other reasons, but that's surely the main one.

[krismiler]

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Any number of factors can be brought in to consideration, average age in Africa is younger so more likely to survive but health care is of a lower standard so more likely to die.
More older people in Europe with chronic health conditions so more likely to die but better health care so less likely to die than a similar case in an African village.
Europe has good reporting and monitoring so the figures look worse than Africa which could actually be worse but we don't have accurate information.

Back in the 1990s when AIDS was the scourge in Africa, projecting the figures indicated that there wouldn't be enough people to bury the bodies of those who were dying in such overwhelming numbers. Economies would collapse as there wouldn't be enough workers left to keep things running.

Covid will simply run free in developing countries until an effective level of vaccination is reached. Poverty and overcrowding mean lockdowns and social distancing won't work. A rich country can tell its citizens to stay home for 2 weeks and pay an allowance for the unemployed to buy food with. A day labourer living in an African shanty town with neighbours a few feet away, poor sanitation, a family to support and no income won't be able to stay home as part of a mass lockdown to break the virus.

[kingRB]

Not sure what you mean by that?

Infection fatality rate

[barryt]

Barry,
I must humbly apologise as I am not sure you will find the answers you yearn here. But all is not lost, I am confident there are other forums that will provide solace.

You're probably right. But since I don't belong to any other forums, and have belonged to this one for years, nay...decades actually, and since I am an aviator myself, I prefer to bounce off other like-minded folks (who tend to have more "intelligence" than most...well mostly, anyway), and especially since this whole COVID thing has impacted the aviation industry more so than probably any other industry...

If any industry should be asking my fundamental questions and trying to get decent answers, it must be the aviation industry...which has all but been decimated by what I now call... "pork pies"...around the entire COVID issue, being told and sold, by all-and-sundry, the world over...

Which is why I posted on this forum.

[barryt]

barryt,

You could choose to believe "everything we have been told by medical scientists and our governments, then they SHOULD BE HALF DEAD"

Which is fine except, there are contradictions within the establishment, fake news if you wish.

You could also add India into the mix, 1.38 billion people, the majority living in (very) crowded cities but with a death rate roughly a seventh of South Africa's, go figure, damned if it makes sense to me.

Average death rate for Covid varies from Yemen with 29% down to 0.0%, this is case rate not per 100,000; so even in the worst case scenario a long way from your half, live long and prosper but beware of self-fulfilling prophets.

No "fake news" here. I am basing my questions around what the world has been "fed" from mainstream media outlets...such as Sky News...CNN...Fox News etc etc...although we all know we should not trust any of them, including the various medical professionals they interview and so on...

And yet, the world believes everything coming out of the TV and from the mouths of government ministers on the same news channels...nothing "fake" about that...

And nobody seems to challenge any of them with (say) my 2 fundamental questions, so we can get some proper answers. Backed up by scientific fact, as to why, Africa is not half-dead yet, after a full year of virus exposure in the most promotional of circumstances, for the virus to spread...

Same goes for India, and I'm glad you mentioned that. The "story" is the same, and my 2 initial fundamental questions apply equally I think to India, as they do to Africa.

All things being equal, both populations should, (in theory at least), if we are to believe everything we have been told about how dangerous the virus is, be half dead already...or, at the very least, a lot more dead, than they are currently, after 1 year now.

But they are not.

Which is what is leaving the "smoking gun" questions, really.

It seems there is an argument toward "well Africa does not have many old people, most of the population is young and resilient, therefore hardly any of them are dieing"...(and I read the quoted article btw in an earlier post)

3 problems with that :
1.The media, governments around the world, medical scientists are currently contradicting that theory vehemently right now, wherever they can, live TV, wherever...and would have us believe otherwise, and are currently shouting the mantra "We are ALL susceptible! Regardless of age...lookey here at this young baby...just 2 months old...got COVID"...[as they hold up the baby to the camera]...leaving us with the distinct impression with their solemn tone of words that said baby will likely be dead within next 48 hours.

2. Does India also have a relatively low percentage of the "older generation"? Do they also only have mostly young people living in India, compared to older people, just like what is being claimed about Africa? I don't think so, but I could be wrong.

3. If it is true that age IS the main factor why half of Africa isn't dead yet...then why are we shutting down the whole world's population, stopping kids from going to school and so on? Why not just protect the aged and quarantine them only, in lock downs and so on? After all, we now (apparently) have the "proof" from Africa's track-record after one year, that really, it is only the aged which are at risk. (Maybe because the aged are the ones holding most of the purse strings and influence in most countries...and we can't discriminate against them only now, can we, so better shut the whole bloody lot down? (Just asking - another dumb theory perhaps)

And let's face it, the aged have always been more vulnerable, anyway, to anything and everything, including straight-up plan-old-vanilla pneumonia...pre COVID, so what really changed in terms of all that, when COVID came along? Of course, nowadays just about any aged person who dies, from whatever cause...well...they died from COVID, obviously.

Pathetic in the extreme (try and find the figures in your country of how many aged died from anything other than COVID or natural causes, and good luck with THAT, because it seems nobody cares about the true causes anymore...its all just "COVID")

You're damned right it doesn't make sense.

Somebody...is telling pork pies...all over the place...that much, has become patently obvious.

In the beginning of the pandemic, I was happy to "buy into" everything we have been told, mask up, lock down, etc, because hell, I really didn't know any better and had no choice really...better not to take risks, at that stage.

But now, after nearly a full YEAR of the virus everywhere, its become more and more obvious to me each day...that somebody has been telling massive pork pies all along...and Im not even an expert...I just have 2 simple questions I want answered, and, where one would
typically expect the medical professionals or governments to easily answer said questions...they simply never do, and just skirt around the issue...like they are tremendously "unpopular" or "difficult" questions to answer....which doesn't help, and the questions will remain
until proper answers are forthcoming, failing which, any reasonable thinking person must concur that:

Somebody, has been telling massive pork pies, for nearly a year now...and we may as well all take our masks off.

[barryt]

So one photo of a crowded train in Africa and you’ve figured out that the pandemic is a worldwide conspiracy huh?

Here’s an article written by scientists about why African pandemic numbers differ from the West. Read it, or don’t, but argue from a point of evidence:

COVID-19: examining theories for Africa’s low death rates (https://theconversation.com/covid-19-examining-theories-for-africas-low-death-rates-147393)



Then why are you wasting your time on a pilot’s bulletin board then?

Would you like me to provide you with more photos then? Don't you believe me when I tell you Africans easily move around en-masse...maybe not on aircraft the way you and I do...but they do get around, en masse, a lot, I can assure you!

Why am I posting on this forum? See a previous post a few back...I answered that one.

The scientific link you post doesn't hold much water Im afraid and still doesn't answer my original fundamental questions, with properly backed-up scientific fact, I'm afraid...all just conjecture and speculation at the end of the day...and falls shallow anyway...see my previous post on this one...

[Australopithecus]

Barryt...Others have given you the answers. Namely, the virus only kills 1 or 2% of the people that it infects, and those people are mostly older than 60. So even if everyone in Africa was already infected, you would see at most a 0.5% increase in deaths given the age demographics.

Also, kindly note that some African countries are simply not able to provide accurate case counts for all of the social, economic and cultural reasons that have already been mentioned. And then there’s the political angle...Tanzania for example simply stopped reporting cases back in May.

[Stick Flying]

Ah Barry,
At last something we can agree on. In my opinion I think a path could have been navigated that didn't decimate so many professions putting pressure on many other non-Covid area's. But I am biased I guess and won't have to take responsibility for the final outcome.

My issue with your discussion is I find your question's lack credibility. Firstly, even with the worst leftest MSM, I have seen nothing that would indicate they are implying a loss of 50% of the lives anywhere in the world, no matter how dire the living conditions are.

I also don't know why you think the Africans would be aggrieved with my understanding that the world has subtle differing variations in genetic makeup due to locality (over a prolonged period). Is there a level of xenophobia in that assumption?

[dr dre]

The scientific link you post doesn't hold much water Im afraid and still doesn't answer my original fundamental questions

Huh? I just posted a link written by an Oxford medical Professor and an African Health Science expert. What gravitas do you, mere Pprune poster, have to dismiss their article as "not holding much water"?
If you're going to insist those people are either idiots or liars better provide some properly sourced FACTS of your own. Can you post a link please that in some way backs up your claim of "Somebody...is telling pork pies...all over the place...that much, has become patently obvious."?

[barryt]

Huh? I just posted a link written by an Oxford medical Professor and an African Health Science expert. What gravitas do you, mere Pprune poster, have to dismiss their article as "not holding much water"?
If you're going to insist those people are either idiots or liars better provide some properly sourced FACTS of your own. Can you post a link please that in some way backs up your claim of "Somebody...is telling pork pies...all over the place...that much, has become patently obvious."?

This is precisely what I have mentioned before...in terms of "medical professionals".

Oxford medical professor? Who cares? Does this now make him the world's expert on COVID and the number of deaths in Africa, merely because he carries the title "professor"?

Must be a rather sh_t one, either way, because he never answered my questions properly, and backed it up with scientifically proven fact, not once, in that article...just sayin'

Dismiss their article? Standby and watch my friend...

Now I need facts?

No actually, I don't, beyond what is obvious to anybody - all I have asked is 2 fundamental questions, based on very obvious facts to anybody who barely has to "look",... to establish their veracity:

FACT 1 : Its been nearly a FULL YEAR now, that Africa and its population has been exposed to the virus
FACT 2 : African populations generally live in squalor and on top of each other - with little-to-no appreciation of medical science, nor care-a-less, irrespective of age - a veritable breeding ground for the virus, under the circumstances
FACT 3 : The African population has not been decimated, as would normally have been expected to have happen, having ignored all the "medical science" largely, 50% or otherwise, (or at the very least, at lot more dead, than currently, after a full year), if we are to believe "professors", "government ministers" and other (apparent) "gurus" in the medical fraternity
FACT 4 : African populations remain largely in tact, after a full year, in contradiction to all the "facts" espoused by "professors" and whoever else who claim to be "gurus" - the facts on the ground, do not bear witness to their BS, sadly for them, your professor included, including (basically speaking), that "we're all gonna DIE ASAP, if we fail to wear masks, don't stop touching the groceries on the shelves in the stores, and if we don't stop hugging each other"

So yes, somebody is telling pork pies, for sure, including your professor - perhaps he should have chosen a different university - the University of Common Sense, for example? Not sure.

[barryt]

Ah Barry,
My issue with your discussion is I find your question's lack credibility. Firstly, even with the worst leftest MSM, I have seen nothing that would indicate they are implying a loss of 50% of the lives anywhere in the world, no matter how dire the living conditions are.


Any and all questions in life, are valid. Or am I missing something?

50% is just a number I chose really...the point is...Africa should be a lot more dead, than it is currently, for the reasons in my previous post.

But it isn't.

And that is the problem.

Ah Barry,
I also don't know why you think the Africans would be aggrieved with my understanding that the world has subtle differing variations in genetic makeup due to locality (over a prolonged period). Is there a level of xenophobia in that assumption?


Ha ha...now I am sorry, you have made me laugh with that one.

You think?

Come try live in Africa and go around with that attitude, and you will see what I mean...very quickly.

Xenophophia? You damn right...you should see how the black on black violence occurs in Africa...because of different cultures...never mind a simple differing skin color...now imagine there was a different skin color as well...you get the picture...

Hell, never mind Africa...try going around in the States with that attitude in your previous statement...you quickly end up with "Black Lives Matter"...or haven't you been paying attention? ;)

How long would you like to carry on living? Just asking... ;)

[Stick Flying]

Any and all questions in life, are valid. Or am I missing something?



You haven't read my post. I said your questions weren't CREDIBLE. You have asked a question as to why a certain percentage has not been achieved (a percentage you freely admit you have CHOSEN), a number which was so vastly contradictory to any form of statistical distribution of the facts being collated by scientist's (you know, they guys that are telling you porky pies), yet it is a credible question? I'm sorry to say your argument on that one is not credible (as I said before if you could just listen at all).

Come try live in Africa and go around with that attitude, and you will see what I mean...very quickly.

What the hell are you talking about man (or woman). you need to stop posting on forums when you're drinking. My opinion on my understanding of genetics in the human race is not an attitude. Again you perhaps need to listen (or read) to what people are really saying. But I hazard a guess you are so defensive that you are putting context into things which is really not there.

[jonkster]

So... the Chinese, American, Russian, UK and European Union leaders and their respective public health authorities, along with the UN and the Murdoch Press and Guardian and most media outlets and health care workers world-wide have colluded together to make everyone believe there is a pandemic when in fact there isn't, it is all a beat up. The hospital staff are working at pretending their ICUs are overflowing and the people providing freezers for temporary mobile mortuaries are in on it too. The discipline not to leak it is a scam, especially from all the doctors and nurses who are spreading false stories of what is happening in their hospitals is a testament to their evil commitment to this conspiracy. Great acting by Boris Johnson when in hospital. However this may all be exposed by a number of African countries who have nobly refused to go along with the conspiracy. I am expecting the rest of the world cabal will soon start pressuring these countries soon and given the power of the new world order they will have to cave.

Yep. Sounds reasonable to me.


Nice troll :) Would make a good movie though. :)

[morno]

Did we really land on the moon Barry?

Dr Dre gives you the evidence you yearned for, and you dismiss it as rubbish.

Go put your tin foil hat on and **** off. Off you go

[Middle.Marker]

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

Or if someone dies of COVID-19 but it’s not reported does it really exist? 🧐

[Momoe]

Or if someone gets hit by a bus within 28 days of a positive Covid test is that another Covid statistic? Answer - Yes, in the UK

[Momoe]

Any and all question are valid? better a thousand silly questions than one stupid mistake.
However, Barry you continue to make mistakes so maybe you should stop questioning and call it damage limitation.

[Pinky the pilot]

If a Man speaks in a Forest and there is no Woman to hear him, is he still wrong?

Answers on a postcard.

"It's all rather confusing really"
Neddy Seagoon

[Deltasierra010]

A lot of nonsense written on this thread Africa, along with many other developing areas has :-

1 A young population. 2 A small over 65 population. 3 A basic health care system, there are very few with complex health issues that are vulnerable to Covid 19, many cannot afford the medication, nor is there a high incidence of diabetes. Also probably many deaths are recorded as malaria or one of the other tropical diseases that are widespread for political reasons.

[compressor stall]

But back to "Much of the World reopening in March".

Well, we're 4 weeks out from March and much of the world is shutting down as we speak largely due to the new variants.

Many countries in EU banning flights from UAE due to soaring rates there and the SA strain (even though UAE have vaccinated 3 million of their 9 million population).

France has banned all non EU flights.
Israel banned all pax flights full stop.
etc.

And many many more countries are enforcing quarantine, if not for all travellers then for those who have visited variant hot spot countries.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

[Global Aviator]

But back to "Much of the World reopening in March".

Well, we're 4 weeks out from March and much of the world is shutting down as we speak largely due to the new variants.

Many countries in EU banning flights from UAE due to soaring rates there and the SA strain (even though UAE have vaccinated 3 million of their 9 million population).

France has banned all non EU flights.
Israel banned all pax flights full stop.
etc.

And many many more countries are enforcing quarantine, if not for all travellers then for those who have visited variant hot spot countries.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Unfortunately I do believe you are right.

Jetstar still seem to think otherwise.

Is a Singapore travel bubble in the pipeline?


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1125x1733/bde17def_be42_4048_868d_34f83a93e837_d2ebf630ec76811acab649a ac6c34dcbd8941455.jpeg

[1A_Please]

But back to "Much of the World reopening in March".

Well, we're 4 weeks out from March and much of the world is shutting down as we speak largely due to the new variants.

Many countries in EU banning flights from UAE due to soaring rates there and the SA strain (even though UAE have vaccinated 3 million of their 9 million population).

France has banned all non EU flights.
Israel banned all pax flights full stop.
etc.

And many many more countries are enforcing quarantine, if not for all travellers then for those who have visited variant hot spot countries.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.
Correct, In addition UK is investigating adopting Australia's 14 day hotel quarantine regime for arriving travelers. There remains ZERO chance that international travel will reopen with any assuredness before September or October at the earliest. There is no justification for QF to be selling any international fares before 30/9 at the earliest (though realistically 1/1/22 is more appropriate) and the ACCC should be reminding them firmly that doing so is in breach of the TPA and exposes them to significant fines.

[compressor stall]

I'm not so negative that there can't be a surge of travel by mid year. IATA are developing a digital travel pass that "proves" travellers' vaccination status. I think in the next few months that borders will gradually open in some countries to those travellers who have been vaccinated and can show the IATA pass.
One more mutation or final proof that the vaccination does not stop you being infectious and transmissible will push that timeline back...

[morno]

I'm not so negative that there can't be a surge of travel by mid year. IATA are developing a digital travel pass that "proves" travellers' vaccination status. I think in the next few months that borders will gradually open in some countries to those travellers who have been vaccinated and can show the IATA pass.
One more mutation or final proof that the vaccination does not stop you being infectious and transmissible will push that timeline back...

I think the issue at this stage though Stally, is the vaccine doesn’t stop you from carrying the virus. Hence you can still take it into the countries.

[compressor stall]

I think the issue at this stage though Stally, is the vaccine doesn’t stop you from carrying the virus. Hence you can still take it into the countries.
Agreed, hence my last sentence. The countries that will be first to open will be ones that have their population largely vaccinated (eg UAE that is currently at 30% of its population, and doing 100K vaccinations a day - extrapolating should have the whole done by the end of March. It is the SinoVac though)

[Dannyboy39]

I think the issue at this stage though Stally, is the vaccine doesn’t stop you from carrying the virus. Hence you can still take it into the countries.
Early indication is that it is significantly reduced though.

[exfocx]

You're probably right. But since I don't belong to any other forums, and have belonged to this one for years, nay...decades actually, and since I am an aviator myself, I prefer to bounce off other like-minded folks (who tend to have more "intelligence" than most...well mostly, anyway), and especially since this whole COVID thing has impacted the aviation industry more so than probably any other industry...

If any industry should be asking my fundamental questions and trying to get decent answers, it must be the aviation industry...which has all but been decimated by what I now call... "pork pies"...around the entire COVID issue, being told and sold, by all-and-sundry, the world over...

Which is why I posted on this forum.

You've been on Pprune for decades and you're so confident about your dumbarse conspiracy theory you're too embarrassed to log in under your usual self?

The industry isn't asking YOUR fundamental questions because they already have the answers.

Before you go flying do you pay the Voodoo doctor to say a spell for your wellbeing?

I hope you've had a vasectomy.

[exfocx]

No travel bubble afaik. I think they're just they're being prepared in case things open up faster than expected, or to gauge how willing people will be to travel when there may still be some virus apprehension. If the flight is canceled do you get a refund or another bs travel voucher? They don't lose either way if that's the case.

[krismiler]

There will probably be some limited travel allowed around the middle of the year with the following conditions:

1. Traveller is vaccinated.
2. Traveller has negative COVID test.
3. Travel is between countries with a substantial proportion of their populations vaccinated.
4. Traveller has COVID insurance.

If these conditions are met then the risk factor should be acceptable. Six months isn't unrealistic for developed countries to achieve a reasonable level of vaccination and they will be the first to open up to each other, COVID cases will still occur but in manageable numbers which can be contained and treated.

A more widespread opening will likely take until the end of the year as a greater level of vaccination is achieved and results can be evaluated.

[C441]

When entire capital cities are locked-down for case numbers in the single digits, do you really think they'll allow overseas arrivals without at least 14 days quarantine and thus little more than the current limited numbers until such time as they can be near certain there'll be no chance of another outbreak?

[krismiler]

See point 3, once most of the population has been vaccinated the risk factor should be acceptable as a vaccinated traveller with a negative test result is very unlikely to have the disease. If he does, and the vaccination rate in the country he visits is high, then he is unlikely to pass it on.

After being vaccinated, anyone who catches COVID is unlikely to get very sick. A few cases here and there is something we’re going to have to live with for the foreseeable future but mass waves and hospitalisations with hundreds of deaths per day should be coming to an end.

Some countries such as Thailand are highly dependent on foreign visitors and need to open up soon, Australia less so but it can’t stay isolated forever.

[unexplained blip]

It's been shown that COVID-19 continues to exist on surfaces for many days (e.g., stainless steel over 14 days IIRC - see https://blog.csiro.au/covid19-virus-surfaces/) under normal climatic conditions, so pax will (re-)introduce COVID via their person and belongings regardless of their own infection and vax status. I do not want this to be the case, but it probably means that for international travel to be opened up, at least without quarrie at one or both ends, we will need a very high % vaxxed at origins, destinations and anywhere significant in between.

[Climb150]

It's been shown that COVID-19 continues to exist on surfaces for many days (e.g., stainless steel over 14 days IIRC - see https://blog.csiro.au/covid19-virus-surfaces/) under normal climatic conditions, so pax will (re-)introduce COVID via their person and belongings regardless of their own infection and vax status. I do not want this to be the case, but it probably means that for international travel to be opened up, at least without quarrie at one or both ends, we will need a very high % vaxxed at origins, destinations and anywhere significant in between.
It is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, says Dean Blumberg, MD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children's Hospital. "You'd need a unique sequence of events," he says. First, someone would need to get a large enough amount of the virus on a surface to cause infection. Then, the virus would need to survive long enough for you to touch that surface and get some on your hands. Then, without washing your hands, you'd have to touch your eyes, nose, or mouth.

Blip,
Are you honestly trying to say that people will get infected by other people's luggage because even though they aren't infected, an infected person may have touched it and then its bought into the plane to infect others? That's funny

[LostWanderer]

It is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, says Dean Blumberg, MD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children's Hospital. "You'd need a unique sequence of events," he says. First, someone would need to get a large enough amount of the virus on a surface to cause infection. Then, the virus would need to survive long enough for you to touch that surface and get some on your hands. Then, without washing your hands, you'd have to touch your eyes, nose, or mouth.

Blip,
Are you honestly trying to say that people will get infected by other people's luggage because even though they aren't infected, an infected person may have touched it and then its bought into the plane to infect others? That's funny

I think the sensible money is on anything being possible when it comes to COVID. Let’s be honest here, we have had this virus being closely studied for over a year now and it still is impossible to control or contain it despite measures not seen maybe ever before in most countries.

People who have been vaccinated are still getting the virus, I believe I even read some of which have died. Numerous mutations to the virus that are looking to be resistant to the vaccines. Border safety measures that seem to fail regularly...the list goes on.

I think the smart money is on aviation, travel and any form of normality being severely suppressed for a lot longer yet.

[dr dre]

People who have been vaccinated are still getting the virus, I believe I even read some of which have died. Numerous mutations to the virus that are looking to be resistant to the vaccines. Border safety measures that seem to fail regularly...the list goes on.


For some perspective:

Israeli data shows an infection rate in their vaccinated population less than 1/200th of their unvaccinated population. Only 16 people being treated in hospital had received both doses, an incredibly low figure:
Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/israel-covid-vaccination-data-offers-hope-exit-pandemic)

As far as mutations go vaccines are providing protection against hospitalisation and death (https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n296) with the new mutations. They are NOT vaccine resistant.

Border safety measures can be improved in the short term yes, but lesser need for total elimination once the levels of immunisation in the country rise.

[unexplained blip]

It is theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, says Dean Blumberg, MD, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children's Hospital. "You'd need a unique sequence of events," he says. First, someone would need to get a large enough amount of the virus on a surface to cause infection. Then, the virus would need to survive long enough for you to touch that surface and get some on your hands. Then, without washing your hands, you'd have to touch your eyes, nose, or mouth.

Blip,
Are you honestly trying to say that people will get infected by other people's luggage because even though they aren't infected, an infected person may have touched it and then its bought into the plane to infect others? That's funny

Low probability but multiplied by a large number of people equals near-certainty (say one per month). With the current national intolerance for any cases, there would need to be low occurrence at the origin and/or high vax rate at the destination. I am not advocating it should be like this, but I am expecting that surface-based transmission is not being discounted.

Remember also the NZ outbreak mid-winter -- unless they have revised their view of that since, the inbound vector was believed to be refrigerated freight. Also that there are gangs of people in our cities walking around spraying and polishing traffic signal buttons, road signs, seats etc etc. Yes that might be make-work but again also indicates where governments' thinking is at.

[krismiler]

COVID is something we are going to have to live with, zero cases isn’t a realistic expectation. Once an adequate percentage of the population is vaccinated the world can start opening up again. Initially it will be between countries with high vaccination rates, some countries will still be off limits for the immediate future.

There will be small outbreaks but they will be controllable and citywide lockdowns won’t be necessary. Some people will get sick, some will get very sick and some will die but the numbers involved will be manageable.

We could almost eliminate road deaths by banning motorised vehicles or imposing a 20mph speed limit but we don’t because the economic effect would be too great, so we live with car accidents and road trauma. We manage the problem with rules and regulations which are enforced by the police, and a health system which treats the injured. Hospitals aren’t overwhelmed by road accident victims and soon, COVID will be the same.

[C441]

Krismiler, all that is great in theory but unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, Australia's political 'leaders' have been and probably will be incredibly over-cautious as they have demonstrated to date. I'd be surprised if they suddenly change their outlook if there's even a modicum of a chance that there may be a case from any source. W.A. has one case that led to a 5 day lockdown. Whether that decision is correct or otherwise, that is the precedent that has been set. Politicians love precedents - especially if they can convince the public that it was a correct call.

[dr dre]

Krismiler, all that is great in theory but unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, Australia's political 'leaders' have been and probably will be incredibly over-cautious as they have demonstrated to date. I'd be surprised if they suddenly change their outlook if there's even a modicum of a chance that there may be a case from any source. W.A. has one case that led to a 5 day lockdown. Whether that decision is correct or otherwise, that is the precedent that has been set. Politicians love precedents - especially if they can convince the public that it was a correct call.

The response is based on health advice for a virus spread amongst a non immunised population. Once the vaccine has been rolled out the advice will change. It's not too hard to comprehend:

Coronavirus: few vaccines prevent infection – here’s why that’s not a problem (https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-few-vaccines-prevent-infection-heres-why-thats-not-a-problem-152204)

[Fonz121]

Israel's vaccination rollout shows stunningly successful results
Some of the earliest figures from a mass vaccination program (https://www.9news.com.au/vaccine)has shown a huge drop in coronavirus cases (https://www.9news.com.au/coronavirus).
Israel has had by far the most successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout, with 56 Pfizer doses administered for every 100 people in the country.
And already a sharp drop has been recorded in the number of people falling ill.

Of the 163,000 Israelis vaccinated by the Maccabi Healthcare Services, just 31 have contracted coronavirus.
"This is very, very good news," vaccine statistician Anat Ekka Zohar told the Times of Israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-found-92-effective-in-israel-in-first-controlled-result-outside-trials/).
"It is the first study in the world that looks at such a large number of fully vaccinated patients."

The Israel data shows the Pfizer vaccine has an efficacy rate of 92 per cent.
But what is perhaps even more encouraging is how those vaccinated who contract coronavirus nevertheless respond.
"None have been hospitalised and they have very, very light symptoms," Dr Ekka Zohar said.
"We are talking about headache and a mild feeling of sickness, and they are almost completely without fever. It's really a very light illness."

edit* Channel 9 news

[dr dre]

But what is perhaps even more encouraging is how those vaccinated who contract coronavirus nevertheless respond.
"None have been hospitalised and they have very, very light symptoms," Dr Ekka Zohar said.
"We are talking about headache and a mild feeling of sickness, and they are almost completely without fever. It's really a very light illness."


And that's the whole point of the vaccine, not to completely eradicate a virus, but to turn it into a common cold or flu. Once that happens travel and lockdown restrictions don't need to be enacted.

Just get the jab please.

[krismiler]

The Israeli data is highly encouraging and importantly, is believable. Unlike certain countries they have no reason to cover up case numbers or exaggerate the effectiveness of a domestically produced vaccine.

Australia will definitely trail the rest of the world in opening up, but with news like this, a firm basis to plan on is now available. A schedule based on “as long as this doesn’t happen” can now be tentatively worked out for easing restrictions.

[kingRB]

And that's the whole point of the vaccine, not to completely eradicate a virus, but to turn it into a common cold or flu. Once that happens travel and lockdown restrictions don't need to be enacted.

Just get the jab please.

you mean like the statistical majority that contract Corona virus? Mild flu like symptoms?

[WingNut60]

you mean like the statistical majority that contract Corona virus? Mild flu like symptoms?
Yes, but unlike the statistical 4% (in Oz) who die from it. Most definitely unlike statistical flu outcomes.

[kingRB]

Yes, but unlike the statistical 4% (in Oz) who die from it. Most definitely unlike statistical flu outcomes.


sorry where did I make comparisons to influenza fatality rates?

[Icarus2001]

Yes, but unlike the statistical 4% (in Oz) who die from it. I have been trying to find an ACCURATE fatality rate for Australia. Where did you get 4%?

[WingNut60]

I have been trying to find an ACCURATE fatality rate for Australia. Where did you get 4%?
28,830 cases / 909 deaths.

OK ....3.1%
The 4% was a rough (mis)calculation.

Obviously, no allowance for asymptomatic cases.

[Icarus2001]

Okay thanks. I found this page...https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
So the REAL rate will be a great deal lower than 3.1% given that is simply the ratio of those who tested positive to those who died.
My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.

[WingNut60]

Okay thanks. I found this page...https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
So the REAL rate will be a great deal lower than 3.1% given that is simply the ratio of those who tested positive to those who died.
My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.
But that's just a guess. Because there are no statistics for asymptomatic cases. Only "impressions".
Whereas for inluenza the 5 year average for Australia is 0.34%. That is deaths per confirmed influenza diagnosis.
If you expand THAT out to include all of the influenza cases that were relatively mild and never reported to any health authority then I think you'd find the "apples with apples" death rate to weigh strongly in favour of influenza.

And, hey, has anyone got any figures for asymptomatic influenza? Or are we all just presuming that it's only Covid that has asymptomatic cases.
John Hopkins School of Public Health says "As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic".

[Icarus2001]

They are good points you raise. Makes it difficult to plan. Hence one case in Perth has caused two million people to be locked down. Crazy.

[WingNut60]

They are good points you raise. Makes it difficult to plan. Hence one case in Perth has caused two million people to be locked down. Crazy.
One KNOWN case in Perth. But considering the bigger picture, the potential for many more is considerable.
If he's the only one then I think everyone will be amazed.

In the period from when he became infectious until he went into quarantine he visited a truly impressive list of public venues covering a broad expanse of the metropolitan area.

[Pinky the pilot]

My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.

I have had several Medicos and Nurses quietly say to me much the same. And some of those consider various Goverments reactions to be way over the top!

[WingNut60]

I have had several Medicos and Nurses quietly say to me much the same. And some of those consider various Goverments reactions to be way over the top!
But in Australia it is very different, 0.34% vs 3.1% for confirmed cases.
And if you want to factor in unconfirmed & asymptomatic cases then you need to do it for both.

When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

This discussion of death rates also ignores other long-term effects, which sound a lot nastier for Covid than the flu.

[krismiler]

In 2019 it was estimated that there were 29 000 people with HIV in Australia with new infections running at around 800 per year. Back in the 1980s, AIDS was a virtual death sentence, now it’s under control. We learnt to live with it and treatments were developed.

COVID will be the same and we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations, at least for the next few years. Travel passes will be needed to fly internationally, possibly with some degree of tracking. Social distancing will be the new normal, hygiene levels will be increased and contactless will be the way of doing things as far as possible.

I get my second jab this weekend and whilst I will still have regular testing it will be less frequent. I fully expect to get vaccinated again in 12 months with the vaccine optimised for the new strains that emerged since my last dose.

Around the middle of the year, enough people will have been inoculated in developed countries for there to be a semblance of normality and an easing of restrictions.

[dr dre]

My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.

This has to be debunked every couple of weeks.

UK average yearly flu deaths 600-13000 (https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu)
UK Covid deaths in 11 months 108,000 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)

France average yearly flu deaths 10,000-15,000 (https://www.google.com/search?q=france+average+flu+deaths&rlz=1C1GCEO_enAU852AU852&oq=france+average+flu+deaths&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160.4634j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)
France Covid deaths in 11.5 months 77,000 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/)

US average yearly flu deaths 12,000-51,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html)
US Covid deaths in 11.5 months 457,000 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

All that information is readily available.

[Icarus2001]

Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.

When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?

When was the last time it was reported? That is how you would know and remember it.

How often are suicide figures reported in Australia? How often are road deaths reported? Which number is bigger?

Spoiler alert: Road deaths for Australia 2020 just under 1100. Suicide deaths Australia 2020: 3300

[WingNut60]

Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.

Do you honestly think that 700 influenza deaths in a couple of months would go unreported?

And you think that the bulk of the 700 were all at deaths door and would have died within days anyway?
If your argument relies on grey wiggly area then I'll let you have a few sq cms.
Lots? Definitely not.

[dr dre]

Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.

Not really. WHO classifications on what constitutes a Covid death:

INTERNATIONAL GUIDELINES FOR CERTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION (CODING) OF COVID-19 AS CAUSE OF DEATH (https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/Guidelines_Cause_of_Death_COVID-19.pdf?ua=1)

Debunking the conspiracies that if you test positive for Covid and then die in a car crash your death will be recorded as a Covid death. If you have terminal cancer and die with Covid? Was it Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome or Pneumonia bought on by Covid that contributed to your death? Then yes Covid will be listed as an underlying factor. If not then it won't.

C'mon you need to start looking up facts yourself and not ask questions that hint at baseless conspiracies. Rational answers are all out there if you bother to look.

[Momoe]

Dr Dre,

Extract from the document you attached

"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Covid deaths are being over reported as a result of this - during the height of the first wave, any death with any COVID symptoms had the head sealed, body bagged and removed for interment, NO autopsy.

My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.

[morno]

I think you’ve lost Icarus

[Stick Flying]

But that's just a guess.

Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.

[dr dre]

Covid deaths are being over reported

My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.

Actually most evidence points to the UK undercounting their death toll:

Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.

It does not include people who died more than 28 days after testing positive - even if those people spent that entire period in hospital and had Covid-19 marked on their death certificate. It also excludes anyone who did not have a positive Covid-19 test. Because of this, it undercounts the number of Covid-19 deaths that occurred during the first months of the pandemic, when only a minority of people were being tested.
Why the UK’s Covid death toll has passed 100,000 a second time (https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40214720.html)

[Icarus2001]

I think you’ve lost Icarus No I am keeping up but I have an open mind. Except when it comes to this lock down in Perth for ONE case. I was expecting by Tuesday there may be 20-30 cases but even today no extra cases. The damage and stress from locking people down is unnecessary. I feel it is a massive over reaction. How about just explain the facts to people and advise them to stay home and avoid contact?

As I said above, the media just love reporting road deaths, they are all over it. Suicide deaths are three times as many. Silence. Which is the bigger problem? Accidents due to fatigue and stupidity or people choosing to take their own life. I know my thoughts. Now apply that media bias philosophy to Covid coverage.

[Pinky the pilot]

Extract from the document you attached

"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."

Well.....most interesting.:hmm:

Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.

But Dr Dre; Does not your quote simply prove that the first abovementioned quote is true? Despite that there have may been other diseases that each victim may have been suffering from, that if they had subsequently contracted Covid 19, then that was their 'sole' cause of Death?

[WingNut60]

Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.
Thanks for your advice about guessing. It is most assuredly correct.
However I was not referring to my argument,

I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.

[WingNut60]

...........Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.

Eh???? And modeling is so much more accurate?

[dr dre]

Despite that there have may been other diseases that each victim may have been suffering from, that if they had subsequently contracted Covid 19, then that was their 'sole' cause of Death?

No one has ever suggested a death certificate can only have one cause of death. Might want to re read that. Plus the WHO advice isn't necessarily taken up by every single member state. There'll be minor differences in reporting of mortality. I'm not going to go through 200 different reporting systems to decide what is most accurate. None of this really detracts from the fact Covid is far deadlier than a seasonal influenza.

COVID Far More Lethal Than Flu, Data Shows (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows#1)

[dr dre]

As further proof this isn't a "bad flu season" check out the video in this link:

NEW: a common response to reports of hospitals struggling this winter is "it’s no different to a bad flu season!" I’ve tracked down historical data on flu ICU admissions, including winter 2017-18, a record high. Here’s how England’s Covid winter compares to a bad flu season

[McLimit]

I think you’ve lost Icarus

Depends on what evidence you want to quote and choose to believe.

My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.

No, no way, can't be so? Someone on the frontline with a rationale view based on evidence?

FACT: There are financial incentives to hospitals in some countries for reported covid deaths.

[Stick Flying]

Thanks for your advice about guessing. It is most assuredly correct.
However I was not referring to my argument,

I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.
Is that not an argument? You disagreed with Icarus but chose to use a 'guessed statistical percentage' in order to portray your side of the case?

And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.

[morno]

Ohh FFS, it’s here, it’s not going away anytime to soon.

There shouldn’t be a problem getting another job in flying once this is all over with so many of you being qualified doctors/epidemiologists/disease experts....

[Icarus2001]

Corona virus’s do not go away. The common cold and influenza are two examples.

My “impression” is a guess, of course. What I do know is the death rate is less than 3.1 % because there are well documented asymptomatic cases.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext

This is interesting.Particularly in hospital mortality as it varies with age. Th graph shows up to about age 50 flu and COVID are about the same, after that age COVID is much more deadly, needing ICI care.

[McLimit]

There shouldn’t be a problem getting another job in flying once this is all over with so many of you being qualified doctors/epidemiologists/disease experts....

You're including yourself in those ranks, yeah?

[Transition Layer]

Here’s an actual example of the blurred lines associated with COVID death statistics:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x1462/a2b28926_9449_4984_9068_d673553f0653_23692b0bad1b42fff352c7f 69e8242a54c12a10c.jpeg
Was it pneumonia or COVID?

[WingNut60]

Is that not an argument? You disagreed with Icarus but chose to use a 'guessed statistical percentage' in order to portray your side of the case?

And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.
It was not a guess. It was a quoted simple mathematical percentage based on published hard data from the Australian government.
I qualified my statement by saying that I had excluded asymptomatic cases.

I also said that, if you want to include asymptomatic cases in any comparison then you need also to include asymptomatic cases for influenza.
By their very nature any percentages being parried about for asymptomatic cases, either for Covid or for influenza, are no more than a guess.

[McLimit]

asymptomatic cases for influenza.

I think I get that every year, except every 5 or 6 years when it's symptomatic.

[Stick Flying]

It was not a guess. It was a quoted simple mathematical percentage based on published hard data from the Australian government.
I qualified my statement by saying that I had excluded asymptomatic cases.

I also said that, if you want to include asymptomatic cases in any comparison then you need also to include asymptomatic cases for influenza.
By their very nature any percentages being parried about for asymptomatic cases, either for Covid or for influenza, are no more than a guess.

I guess some guesses are better than others. There have, since the start of the pandemic, been random test samples done which could be extrapolated to approximate the level of debilitation for a given sample range. The latest figures I read (from a British medical journal publication) were IFR figures varying from 0.37-1.45% (depending on geographical demographics). So you are right, these numbers are guesses (I'd say a statistical estimation would be a better term). So to come up with 4% then a revised 3.1% is a considerably worse guess, almost alarming. My whole beef is why quote a percentage which is of little relevance and considerably more than the better guesses. I have read an article that suggests Covid could be 6 times as deadly Influenza. But these are all generalisations as the widespread data collection for Flu hasn't needed the resources that Covid-19 see's us experiencing today.

But food for thought is required. There is no doubt in my mind that Covid-19 couldn't carry on unchecked. But when making comparisons, Influenza has had centuries of experience to draw upon on making decisions how to treat flu sufferers. We have vaccines for the flu (although it is a lottery to which variant is in the offing). Yet people still die from it. Where Covid ends up in the 'Viral hall of shame' will be determined in a few years. But we are just going to have to learn to live with it.

[WingNut60]

I guess some guesses are better than others. There have, since the start of the pandemic, been random test samples done which could be extrapolated to approximate the level of debilitation for a given sample range. The latest figures I read (from a British medical journal publication) were IFR figures varying from 0.37-1.45% (depending on geographical demographics). So you are right, these numbers are guesses (I'd say a statistical estimation would be a better term). So to come up with 4% then a revised 3.1% is a considerably worse guess, almost alarming. My whole beef is why quote a percentage which is of little relevance and considerably more than the better guesses. I have read an article that suggests Covid could be 6 times as deadly Influenza. But these are all generalisations as the widespread data collection for Flu hasn't needed the resources that Covid-19 see's us experiencing today.

But food for thought is required. There is no doubt in my mind that Covid-19 couldn't carry on unchecked. But when making comparisons, Influenza has had centuries of experience to draw upon on making decisions how to treat flu sufferers. We have vaccines for the flu (although it is a lottery to which variant is in the offing). Yet people still die from it. Where Covid ends up in the 'Viral hall of shame' will be determined in a few years. But we are just going to have to learn to live with it.
Well thanks for keeping your argument within logical limits but I will point out one (last) time, the 3.1% is not a guess. It is the statistical value from recorded data in Australia for confirmed Covid cases.

The 4% was just bad rounding and was never intended to be dissected as if it was from published dissertation.

[morno]

You're including yourself in those ranks, yeah?

I’m not the one second guessing what medical experts are determining as cause of death for someone

[McLimit]

I’m not the one second guessing what medical experts are determining as cause of death for someone

I would question any 'statistic' or 'evidence' that has a financial incentive attached to it. Plus any of the other myriad of tainted evidence that is produced.

[WingNut60]

I think I get that every year, except every 5 or 6 years when it's symptomatic.
Refer my previous quote from John Hopkins.

[morno]

I would question any 'statistic' or 'evidence' that has a financial incentive attached to it. Plus any of the other myriad of tainted evidence that is produced.

So what are you proposing to do about it? What does posting crap on a forum do about it?

You’re not going to change the way anyone is handling this, so just accept it and move on. Go get another job in the meantime.

[McLimit]

Dude, I'm just venting like you do, and have done for the past 3 or 4 years. I'm not stupid enough to think that anything I type here will change anything. Do you honestly think this board has any influence on any subject whatsoever? I'm fulltime employed, in aviation, in a flying job and not subsidised by jobkeeper or seeker. Just like you were lucky enough to pick up a job with your old employer when you got back from overseas, so did I. Well, not with my old employer, a new one.

[Dannyboy39]

Go get another job in the meantime.
The irony-o-meter has gone off the charts considering this forum is extremely vociferous when it comes to T&Cs of pilots.

[Momoe]

dr dre,

Post 152 - First of all, if you're going to quote from another post, don't edit the post to suit your argument.

How is a death certificate a more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid19, when an ambulance crew declares life extinct, this is normally followed by a doctor attending and confirming/issuing a death certificate, as previously stated, they were sealed, bagged and interred. No examination, just a death certificate that stated cause of death - Covid19. That is not more comprehensive, it's far less, admittedly due to exigent circumstances.


Captain Sir Tom was dying of pneumonia, he tested positive for Covid19 and that's what's on the death certificate.

[morno]

Dude, I'm just venting like you do, and have done for the past 3 or 4 years. I'm not stupid enough to think that anything I type here will change anything. Do you honestly think this board has any influence on any subject whatsoever? I'm fulltime employed, in aviation, in a flying job and not subsidised by jobkeeper or seeker. Just like you were lucky enough to pick up a job with your old employer when you got back from overseas, so did I. Well, not with my old employer, a new one.

Yeah sorry McLimit, just sick of reading so much shiiiiiiit

[dr dre]

How is a death certificate a more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid19, when an ambulance crew declares life extinct, this is normally followed by a doctor attending and confirming/issuing a death certificate, as previously stated, they were sealed, bagged and interred. No examination, just a death certificate that stated cause of death - Covid19. That is not more comprehensive, it's far less, admittedly due to exigent circumstances.

Not sure what you're getting at, but the recording of statistics from death certificates includes deaths that extended beyond 28 days from a positive test, so this is considered more comprehensive. Maybe this article explaining how doctors go about the process of writing a death certificate will help?:

Anti-vaxxers say death certificate guidelines suggest COVID-19 death rate is overstated. Experts beg to differ (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-21/coronacheck-wa-death-certificate-covid-19/12578946)

Captain Sir Tom was dying of pneumonia, he tested positive for Covid19 and that's what's on the death certificate.

How did you see a British person's private medical information? How many co-morbidities did he have listed on his death certificate?

A patient can die with a lot of co-morbidities and causes. Unless a full autopsy or coronial inquest is done it can be a bit difficult to ascertain how much of the morbidity was influenced by each factor. You can excuse British medical workers for having higher priorities on their hands at the moment.

I'm a bit lost at your point, are you saying that Covid deaths are not causing significantly greater deaths than normal because they stuffed up how they report it on death certificates?

It can be a bit confusing with all these factors and co-morbidities and the like, experts get around this by using excess mortality.

A focus on just confirmed and suspected deaths misses out on those deaths from other causes resulting from more indirect effects of Covid-19. For example, deaths can occur when health systems are strained or overwhelmed and unable to provide sufficient or quality care — think of non-Covid-19 patients requiring ICU beds in units already over capacity due to the pandemic. Deaths can also arise from delays in going to the hospital among those needing care due to fear of getting infected during their stay. And lastly there are deaths stemming from Covid-19’s interactions with noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, cancer, kidney disease, and others.


Measuring excess mortality gives a clearer picture of the pandemic’s true burden (https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortality-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/)

Also check out the CDC graph of excess death in the US in recent years, compare the 17/18 flu season with the Covid Pandemic on the graph:

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

[Momoe]

dr dre,

you believe the body of evidence suggesting that Covid deaths are under-reported, on balance I'm inclined to disagree.

You're also quoting Australian medical protocol, they have a 35/1m death rate compared to the UK's 1606/1m.

Even the excess deaths comparison doesn't work, folk were VERY reluctant to go to hospital, even with serious issues, a lot of folk either died at home or left it too late before calling an ambulance; additionally, it's inevitable that the NHS being a bit busy, some services were curtailed leading to other issues.

Under or over, it doesn't really matter - I'm more concerned about the long term effects, our children's children will be paying for this long after we've gone.

[Pearly White]

Keep in mind that the number of excess deaths is not all covid. People are skipping normal preventive medical care and in some locations most elective medical procedures were stopped. In addition mental health issues have led to a increase in suicide. Another thing is that the flu season is non existent! In the US hospitals get additional funds for covid patients but not for flu patients. Virtually no flu deaths. Perhaps some are being miss categorized!What's your source for an increase in suicides?

When I read the last Coroners report for Victoria, the worst-affected state in Australia, it showed a reduction of suicides in 2020 versus 2019.

Would be interested to know if you have actual data in conflict with the Coroner's report, or whether you are just making an assumption.

[Pearly White]

As I said above, the media just love reporting road deaths, they are all over it. Suicide deaths are three times as many. Silence. Which is the bigger problem? Accidents due to fatigue and stupidity or people choosing to take their own life. I know my thoughts. Now apply that media bias philosophy to Covid coverage.Is that at all surprising? Why do you think the media does not report the details of suicides?

[Icarus2001]

I know why they don’t but which is a bigger problem for us to solve?

So back to Prince Mark, 189 contacts tested from 191 and all negative but he still wants restrictions after 6pm tomorrow. This guy is out of control. I would like him to table the full medical advice on this. Masks on for another week? Various gathering restrictions? Based on ONE person having the virus.

[Stick Flying]

A study conducted by Manchester University concluded there was no clear evidence that 2020's Covid lockdown had impacted on the suicide rate. There was a caveat in that there was an increase but this could possibly be accounted for by the year on year suicide increase. But in my opinion, the crucial period will come when government furlough payments come to an end. At this point we will be able to see how many businesses are able to keep their staff employed. That could see widespread job losses which may affect mental wellbeing. Alas, it is a bridge we are destined to cross soon and it may not bode well (surely hope I'm wrong).

[Chronic Snoozer]

Corona virus’s do not go away. The common cold and influenza are two examples.

I don’t believe influenza is a ‘coronavirus’, nor the common cold, which is a rhinovirus. Just for clarity.

[jmmoric]

I don’t believe influenza is a ‘coronavirus’, nor the common cold, which is a rhinovirus. Just for clarity.

No need to believe, it is a fact that the virusses are different for all three of them :ok:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/coldflu.htm

[Derfred]

I don’t believe influenza is a ‘coronavirus’, nor the common cold, which is a rhinovirus. Just for clarity.

Some common cold virus's are coronavirus's.

Four, actually: HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1.

This article (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1) discusses them, and the problem of immunity which only lasts around 12 months - a problem that could also exist with SARS-CoV-2 vaccines - we just don't know yet.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Some common cold virus's are coronavirus's.

Four, actually: HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1.

This article (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1) discusses them, and the problem of immunity which only lasts around 12 months - a problem that could also exist with SARS-CoV-2 vaccines - we just don't know yet.

Indeed. I think that the prevalence of the rhinovirus version of a cold matches the descriptor ‘common’ more accurately when considered in the context of Icarus2001’s post. But thanks for that - we are all learning all the time - it’s been a very interesting 12 months or so.