BALPA Advises against becoming a pilot [Archive]

Alex Whittingham

6th Nov 2020, 17:37

Already happened. CAA man said today that they will allow EASA licence holders to fly G reg aircraft commercially, no time was given but probably their 'up to two years'. Also the papers left out a paragraph "“We urge potential pilots to get experience in another profession first which will postpone any training until the industry is in a more robust shape, provide additional skills and experience and also give them another avenue to fall back on. For anyone that still wants to proceed they should consider the Modular training route which does provide the opportunity to learn and work in other fields”.

dns

6th Nov 2020, 17:57

At the age of 38 I'm finally within half a chance of being able to get my Class 1 and commit to the training.

I've no idea what to do now, I'm too old to just wait a few years for things to pick up

bex88

6th Nov 2020, 18:39

DNS: I don’t know really what to say. There is no escaping the fact it is the worst crisis in aviation history. The likely hood of jobs being available after training is very slim and there will be many experienced and probably still rated pilots. I think you know all of that anyway. My only advice would be that you don’t put yourself in debt to do this. If you do don’t put yourself in so much debt that you loose your home (if you own or mortgage one) if you don’t get a flying job. If you have the cash in the bank then roll the dice once you weigh it all up. You sound like a sensible individual and I am sure you will do what’s right for you. Good luck

Mcflyer101

6th Nov 2020, 18:54

If flying is your passion and you can’t think of doing anything else do it slowly and the modular way. This will save you money if you’re working or studying on the side. I started training (modular) after the 1st gulf war when there were no jobs around either. Finished 3 years later when things started improving and got a job pretty much straight away. Although this looks like being a much bigger crisis no one knows the future. If they find a vaccine that really works things could change dramatically. I have the impression that once people feel safe to travel again there’s going to be an enormous demand. Let’s all hope that this shall pass soon!

clvf88

6th Nov 2020, 19:26

dns

No, 38 is not too old - and another couple of years would make no difference even if you were!

Agree with Bex here. Theres no right or wrong answer; and the best time to start training will be a gamble. Personally, I'd not want to start training for at least another year and re-evaluate then. Add to that 15 months or so for training, and your talking nearly 2.5 years from now before your looking for work. The skills you pay all that money to learn at flight school are very perishable and you really don't want to come out into several years of unemployent.

Most important of all - do not get suckered in by the flight schools. They're great salesman, and its easy to believe what you want to hear. They're not on your side and just want your money.

Good luck!

PilotLZ

6th Nov 2020, 20:32

A bit of pep talk to our future colleagues who understandably find this very disheartening...

Don't take the current situation as the end of the world. Things are bad now, but they won't be this way forever. You haven't had your dream taken away from you. Nobody is telling you not to become a pilot altogether. All you are advised in favour of is - revise the timing. If you're now at high school, apply for uni and go modular alongside your degree. Or learn a trade and build your customer portfolio while going along the modular route, paying for everything off your own back as you go and graduating completely free of debt.

On the grand scheme of things, 3 or 5 years do not matter all that much. If you get your licence at age 25 instead of age 20, you still have 40 years worth of flying ahead of you. The delay due to the current situation is a drop in the sea, as compared to the amount of working life you've got ahead of you. Plan your work, work the plan and stay motivated. You'll get there - and society will eventually be relying on YOU to transport people and goods safely by air.

DontBeStupid

6th Nov 2020, 21:30

dns

I honestly think that you are too old to be starting a career in aviation, I started at 33 and that was sometime back. You will be 40 when finished training approx. and this is a tough business and recruiters prefer younger single people who dont have family commitments and can drop everything to work another flight. The BALPA article is a good, easyjet and all airlines have dumped loads of pilots and that is the end of it for them and they are all in their 20s who got on an airline program.

Saying that if it is something that you want to do and you can afford to spend the money and not get the investment back and never get a job then it is good to have tried that and achieved that but if its all you have and you have kids dont do it!

bringbackthe80s

6th Nov 2020, 23:37

PilotLZ

It’s much worse than this unfortunately.

polax52

7th Nov 2020, 02:35

PilotLZ

The Airline industry for the time being is considered to be environmentally unacceptable.
Aircraft will be semi-Autonomous within 15 to 20 years.
There is a worldwide glut of Pilots which may take a decade to overcome.

If you have a passion about flying then do it. If you want a rewarding career then try something else.

I've been flying for 40 years. My Children all have different careers.

olster

7th Nov 2020, 08:15

You are right polax. The green lobby has aviation in its sights backed up globally by ill informed politicians, ok my view. Flying has been a wonderful career and also a great hobby. If anyone commences flight training , definitely modular, enjoy the ride. At all costs avoid forking out large sums of money to the integrated schools up front. Balpa are wise to issue this warning. Too many bad stories now of crazy levels of debt and limited jobs with limited salaries. A sad state of affairs.

wiggy

7th Nov 2020, 08:31

I've had cause to :hmm: over some of BALPA's advice, articles and advertising in "The Log" with regard careers for some time now so I'm glad to see they have at last stuck stuck their heads above the parapet on this issue.

I have my reservations about the time scale associated with semi-autonomous airliners, but that aside I very much agree what olster, bex and others have said.

Oh and as clvf88 most importantly states:

Most important of all - do not get suckered in by the flight schools. They're great salesman, and its easy to believe what you want to hear. They're not on your side and just want your money.

parkfell

7th Nov 2020, 08:57

For those caught up in this maelstrom on the modular route and are deep into the exams (perhaps with some hour building complete?) you are clearly in an invidious position.
No prospect of any job until a C-19 vaccine is fully rolled out, and confidence is being restored.

Beware of the snake oil salesmen goes without saying.
One thought might be to complete the CPL/IR but on a single engined ac for licence issue.

Leave the multi engined flying with ME/IR & MCC until there are signs of recruitment for wannabes.
Those experienced pilots laid off will invariably be ahead of you in the queue.

By delaying these two items, you will be current and ideally placed for the interview and sim ride.

PilotLZ

7th Nov 2020, 10:14

That's indeed a smart suggestion, parkfell. I fully second it. Single-engine is cheaper to keep current - and there's some chance you might get to do some single-engine flying as a weekend job. Glider towing for a gliding club maybe? Gliding club members don't get paid for any job they do, be it flight instruction or towing (at least in the UK), so it will be more of a hobby than anything else - but at least you will keep current, build some time and, most importantly, stay motivated. MEP is useless unless you are applying for your first type rating. There are relatively few MEP aircraft around, they're very expensive to run and insure and a novice is extremely unlikely to be trusted with flying one of them in a non-training environment. So, if you're not an experienced GA pilot already, you can forget about the MEP rating being anything other than an expense. And it would better be fresh at the time of your airline application.

DontBeStupid

7th Nov 2020, 13:03

I think parkfell's suggestion is very sound advice for any pilots who have started training and do want to continue.

BALPA are inundated with requests from sacked pilots so they realize that the market has been absolutely destroyed!!!!

BALPA has always been on the fence in the past but I think it is great they are doing the right think and showing what the majority of people think so listen to a union that is looking after pilots rather than some school just lying through their teeth to get your money.

So if any student/parent who is unsure listen to the union!

SpamCanDriver

7th Nov 2020, 14:14

Add to this the big question of how internationally recognisable will British licences be in a post-Brexit world. Insurance is the true bugger with that. As much as the UK has been known to have very high standards of flight training ever since, if the insurance provider says "UK CAA is not equivalent to EASA" - there go your chances of a job abroad without exchanging your ticket for a different authority.

What a load of nonsense
Have you ever flown abroad? Have a look at the makeup of the pilot group and licences accepted in the sandpit for starters. Your assertion that a UK licence wouldn't be recognised outside the UK or would be un-insurable is palpable nonsense.
Given EASA FTL's are amongst some of the worst in any developed country, maybe insurance companies will pull the plug?

The UK CAA allowing the use of an EASA licence for atleast 2yrs, is eminentally sensible pragmatism. It gives airlines, plenty of time to sort out licencing going forward

dns

7th Nov 2020, 16:03

Maybe I'll be the one lone cadet at one of those flight schools.

Covid (rather the insane covid restrictions) has destroyed my current career anyway, but I've got the money saved to do my ATPL so might as well do it. If I don't do it now, I'll never get to!

Thanks for the advice, but for all our sakes I hope you're wrong.

Alex Whittingham

7th Nov 2020, 16:22

What parkfell said :ok:

ShotOne

7th Nov 2020, 18:30

dns, if you’ve got money for the course, and to keep yourself for a year or three afterwards, go in with open eyes and fill your boots. But paying for a course now on the expectation of a job to follow, especially on borrowed money is a financial kamikaze mission at this point.

spitfirejock

7th Nov 2020, 20:43

All we needed is for BALPA to stick the knife in......what load of twoddle!

Let ensure ALL ATO's go out of business, all flight instructors lose their jobs, all training aircraft get scrapped after not being used for 2 years...let's just give up.

Yes I agree (as per all my other posts on this forum) paying 100K+ for training is insane today......but this was always close to insane anyway, and completely unnecessary. Spend no more than half that. BALPA (and everyone else) didn't care then and didn't offer advice or caution then, they were encouraging people to just go for it. It was almost like World War 11, "your'e country needs you", except it was "airlines are desperate for pilots" so you can't go wrong.

We all need to take a breath and take a cautiously optimistic approach to training. The vaccine will come soon and attitudes will change, but dent go crazy and don't get sucked in. Take one step at time but don't stop. I, like many others will repeat, Go Modular, pay only small amounts upfront, stop training anytime you want based on how you feel about things, don't sign a fancy contract with huge commitments to finish or get nothing...and above all enjoy your flying and focus on the dream after all, life would be miserable without something to look forward to and work towards.

DontBeStupid

7th Nov 2020, 21:04

spitfirejock actually BALPA never said or recommended a career in aviation, they have videos online from years ago saying think about it, its alot of money for no guarantee, terms and conditions are getting worse by the day it seems.

From my experience BALPA people are pretty decent and most pilots I know there actually try and discourage their children from it as a career as its not what it used to be and that was before 2020!

There is a massive oversupply in the market for pilots and that isnt going to change for a long long long long long long long long time. What this post was trying to do was saying dont believe what some flight school tells you because many experienced pilots have no job so your better off doing something else and maybe come back to it in 6/7 years....

polax52

8th Nov 2020, 11:21

spitfirejock

You're viewing the ATO's with rose tinted spectacles. Some people have made their fortunes from running what was inevitably going to end as a Ponzi scheme. As BALPA state 200 guys/girls holding the ponzi Easyjet MPL.

Nothing short of a miracle will prevent carnage in the British Airline industry next year. Start with BA, they don't have the money to maintain their LHR slot allocation. Easyjet need a superb summer to stay afloat etc. People are struggling they don't have money to spend and they're nervous.

Looking long term, 5 years plus. I think that there will be one more good period for Pilots. Lasting from about 5 years time until the time that semi Autonomous Aircraft come along reducing significantly demand for Pilots, that I believe will be in 15 years time. Don't forget that flight Engineers were in denial about being replaced in the 70's and 80's but it did happen, and when it started, it happened pretty quickly.

Currently qualified and experienced Pilots will get one more go, I'm confident of that.

Alex Whittingham

8th Nov 2020, 11:42

BALPA have always warned against spending 100K on a licence and have, at least for the last 10 years, promoted the modular route as the way to go. They were particular opponents of the terms of 'employment' given to some Easyjet/CTC cadets, a model that CTC called 'flexicrew' and which BALPA regarded as a zero hours contract (https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/43035/easyjet-slammed-over-disingenuous-jobs-announcement) .

parkfell

8th Nov 2020, 12:22

..........Don't forget that flight Engineers were in denial about being replaced in the 70's and 80's but it did happen, and when it started, it happened pretty quickly...... .

A number ended up at BAeFC PIK in 1992. Aged between 28 to 44. Many succeeded in achieving fATPL and returned to BA as FOs.

spitfirejock

8th Nov 2020, 14:19

I stand corrected......but I just felt that we don't need to pile on any more negativity. COVID is making people miserable and depressed, and as some would say, the cure is proving worse than the disease in so many ways.

Notwithstanding all the uncertainly, ATO's will have to offer incredibly attractive pricing to convince potential trainees to get qualified now, perhaps this is the only good thing that will come out of all this? Paying considerably less than $50,000 (equivalent) from zero to CPL/IR, is where the industry was 25 years ago and I am now seeing these prices being offered.

PilotLZ

8th Nov 2020, 14:30

Here comes another catch - an attractive price which is, however, requested upfront should light that red MASTER WARNING in your head. It could easily be due to a dent in the short-term liquidity of the school, with the bean counters being desperate to get any money into the account, no matter the long-term consequences. And, at some point, it may go BANG with your money and incomplete training.

spitfirejock

8th Nov 2020, 14:39

PilotLZ - 1,000 percent agreed - run a mile if asked.

Whitemonk Returns

8th Nov 2020, 15:20

Autonomous aircraft might start being built in 15 years (highly unlikely) but it will be another 30 years until they start replacing all the ones coming off the production line right now, let alone all of the ones currently parked up. Now let's add in the time frame for upgrading airport infrastructure/ATC to deal with them, another 10 years? New joiners have a myriad of things to be concerned about, being replaced by robots any time soon isn't one of them.

VariablePitchP

8th Nov 2020, 16:19

Why couldn’t you upgrade the airports at the same time as building the aircraft?

Though I do agree with you on the timeframe. Most people with jobs now are probably fine. If you’ve got a two year old though, they’re probably not going to get a run at it.

The MAX crashing itself into the floor has probably bagged us an extra 5 years with any luck.

Bealzebub

8th Nov 2020, 18:05

And when you have spent however many pounds or dollars to acquire your CPL..... What are you going to do with it?

dns

8th Nov 2020, 18:28

Personally if I don't do it (or at least attempt it) I'll be wondering "what if" forever more.

In light of what BALPA have said, I may rethink how I go about it, maybe go modular, get an instructor rating, build some hours towing gliders etc if I can. I had previously been planning to go integrated as I'd always thought it was what the airlines preferred.

Maybe there will be a job for me one day, maybe there won't, but right now I have absolutely nothing to do anyway as my work no longer exists (I was a production technician in live events).

It's very interesting to see the different opinions on here

Fair_Weather_Flyer

8th Nov 2020, 19:41

I've seen a few big downturns during my career. The aviation market only ever seems to be good for about three of every ten years. It's a roller coaster industry, always has been. I trained after 9/11, people told me that there would never be any jobs again due to fear of flying. True in the short run, not so in the long run. If you are still interested in a flying career, just do a PPL in your spare time and get the exams out of the way. As has been said, avoid integrated courses and getting an IR until things improve. Don't get big ideas about going to Africa to build hours, crop dusting or even instructing. When the pilot market is low, there really are no jobs, or they are just awful ones, best to avoid.

Hedge your bets, don't bet the farm, bide your time and maybe invest in a decent flight simulator setup to scratch your itch. Don't give up though, few will train now and this will help you in the future.

Alex Whittingham

8th Nov 2020, 20:03

In my view there's not going to be any significant hiring for at least 3 to 5 years. My advice would be stay in your job, work slowly, aim for a CPL SE IR and sit on it. Enjoy your flying for a bit. If/when hiring restarts the upgrade to ME IR and APS MCC will leave you reasonably current. Beware of any ATO that asks for large sums of money upfront. If there aren't some big integrated schools going to the wall in the next two years I would be astonished. They are all advertising modular courses but there is no way they can ever get their cost base down to even begin to compete with the best modular ATOs. An example would be

Leading Edge MEIR, price now POA but last time I looked £35K,
L3 MEIR £39,500,
Skyborne combined CPL MEIR APS/MCC £44,500

whilst comparable modular offerings are

Diamond in Sweden, which is just the dogs, £30K for a modular MEIR including accommodation etc. £25K not.
Stapleford modular CPL ME IR £22K (if I have read it right)
VA APS MCC about £7K, Wings Alliance similar.

Integrated are not even close, they can't compete. Integrated course recruitment has dropped to near zero, no modular income = bust

spitfirejock

8th Nov 2020, 22:30

However Alex, although everything you say I agree with, as confirmed by all my posts, don't just plug the Wings Alliance ATO's as you are the founding member, there are plenty of others just as good and some even less expensive!

Alex Whittingham

8th Nov 2020, 22:36

Fair cop, but it is not-for-profit and i was only a little plug just after VA, who are very good! Anthony Petteford is a complete star, years of experience and very balanced. I don't think either of us are going to be doing many APS/MCC courses for some time.

Edit: are you querying my examples of modular prices? Yes, there are even cheaper modular offerings but I wouldn't put my name to recommending them, hence not mentioned.

Sholayo

9th Nov 2020, 14:20

dns

Same advice as above - go slowly modular. In 3 years from now you'll have fresh, current license and you will be ahead of many. Some old hands would retire anyway, some others will not have money to stay current etc.

Getting there modular way for someone who loves aviation is mostly fun. Especially time building if you can afford. And I bet you can if you can afford integrated way.
If you will build time by flying for long weekends from UK to Spain or Croatia it will be absolutely amazing way of learning. SO much better than doing circuits in local school

After all - who knows what the world will be like in 3-5 years from now. Maybe no job for pilots, maybe the savings you have will diminish due to a worldwide crisis.
At least you'll have memories from the air ;)

ShotOne

9th Nov 2020, 20:48

Even the statistics for unemployed pilots, grim as they are, don’t reveal the worst. Most of the “lucky” employed pilots are on reduced pay in some cases equating to salaries when I joined the industry 31 years ago.

dns

9th Nov 2020, 20:59

Negan

I appreciate the advice.

Out of interest, what would be the downside of doing my CPL and ATPL exams over the next year or so?

My current career has completely evaporated thanks to Covid and I'm desperate for something new to stop me going out of my mind with boredom! (I'm lucky in that I have no commitments and my partner earns a good salary which means I don't have to worry about getting work)

If I did my training over the next 12 months, but then had to hang about for a year or so before an airline job arrived, would that be a problem? Wouldn't I just have to do enough hours to keep current or do airlines only look at cadets who have recently finished their training?

Bealzebub

9th Nov 2020, 21:56

If I did my training over the next 12 months, but then had to hang about for a year or so before an airline job arrived, would that be a problem?

Tell me more about this “airline job” arriving? I appreciate a large dollop of naivety is evident, but is that really what you think happens? Airlines are making pilots with tens of thousands of hours redundant. Do you honestly believe that that there is likely to be a mandate to go out and seek CPL holders with 250 hours? If so, why?

Wouldn't I just have to do enough hours to keep current or do airlines only look at cadets who have recently finished their training?

A flight crew normally comprises 2 pilots. A Captain and usually a First officer. In the case of the latter, that pilot will have a reasonable amount of relevant aviation experience. The First officer may also be a “cadet.” Generally, that means they are an inexperienced pilot who has followed a specific programme of flight training that has been tailored towards an airlines apprenticeship programme. Not all (indeed not many) airlines operate Cadet programmes. Those that do, tend to use them as a fast track apprenticeship to the right seat of that airline. For the airline, the benefits are junior pilots with a known provenance. These cadets are demanding on training resources, but that is offset by reduced early career salaries and strict probationary requirements. On top of this, the prospective cadet assumes nearly all of their own financial risks.

The “self improver” CPL holder with 250 hours isn’t normally a prospective “cadet.” Airlines recruiting First officers will generally look for experience that is commensurate with their operating requirements. That means they usually want experienced type rated pilots. Normally there is absolutely no shortage of such candidates. Piles of applications are whittled down to the best and most suitable candidates who are then offered interviews to further whittle down the process.

The new CPL is really an “aerial work” licence. It allows you to work for remuneration. Flying instruction and other light aircraft work were always the traditional ways of amassing experience to work your way up the career ladder to the “pinnacle” jobs. In recent years the perception that a CPL and 250 hours was a golden ticket to the airlines has very much taken root and very often been the source of much angst and disappointment.

Airlines are in the business of making money and like any business they look for the best product at the cheapest cost. For the foreseeable future they will have pilots with thousands and thousands of hours of relevant experience prepared to sell that experience and their acquired skills at a truly knock down price. Do you honestly believe these companies are going to have a demand for 250 hour licence holders with no experience to offer? It’s also worth bearing in mind that training becomes stale very quickly. Licences and ratings are a perishable commodity and they are very expensive to keep current. You only have to speak to airline pilots now about their serious concerns as their own Licence standard tests and Operator proficiency checks expire.

dns

9th Nov 2020, 22:08

Bealzebub

9th Nov 2020, 22:12

No.

However, here is a bit of a reality check for you to ponder while you wait for the “airline job” to arrive. Ignore it by all means.

dns

9th Nov 2020, 22:14

I'm not expecting it to just happen immediately, but surely lomg-term someone who starts now is as in a good a position as anyone?

BLACKPINK

9th Nov 2020, 22:23

dns

Nothing wrong about doing your CPL and ATPL exams before commencing training. In fact a lot of integrated courses and Cadets do their theory first and then focus on flying after.

The chances of securing an airline job after a year is impossible at this stage. It's only possible if you're a Cadet and even Cadet programs are being culled. Once the industry does recover (expect 2022/23), priority will go to the hundreds if not thousands of experienced pilots that have been stood down. It will take awhile for the industry to gain movement to the point where the benefits finally trickle down to the hundreds of fresh CPL/IR pilots competing for a spot in the industry.

To keep current, you would have to renew your CPL and Instrument Rating. As long as you renew your ratings I don't think airlines care if you recently finished your training. Either way it's not going to matter as I'd say there will be a backlog of Cadets anyway. I'm not sure on the exact cost for renewals but I'd suspect it's 3-5k every year.

In this time of uncertainty, it's not worth bleeding thousands every year just waiting for the industry to recover. As others have said, wait for more certainty before making any big decisions.

dns

9th Nov 2020, 22:35

Thanks blackpink,

Obviously I'm aware that it's an incredibly :mad: time, I'm just not prepared to let a lifelong dream go that easily!

I'm just looking to do what gives me the best chance possible when things finally start to pick up!

portos8

10th Nov 2020, 06:28

Get your PPL first. See if you like flying. Then start the ATPL theory training, spread the exams over some time. Then assess the state of the industry. If low hour pilots are getting hired by then (can be 3 -4 years from now) invest in the CPL/IR. Do all this while holding a (part time) job. Pay all out of your savings. Take your partner with you on a "hourbuilding holiday" in California or Western Australia to reward him/her for putting up with all the whining and aviation bull**** talk. Above all enjoy it.

lcolman

10th Nov 2020, 06:59

I'm with you, I started my ppl in 2004 with the intention of getting my commercial ticket, then listened to all the doomsayers back then pointing out that there were no jobs, autonomous airliners coming, the world is over etc etc - then spent the next 13 years watching as all my mates stepped into airline jobs, pilots were in short supply and generally kicked myself for being short sighted.

So here I am at 38, just completed my PPL at stapleford, bought a beagle pup for hours building about to start my ATPL theory with Bristol.

All I'm saying is that there are Doom Mongers everywhere, if you want to fly - aviation is more than just airlines and there is alot of metal out there still flying! Just do it, but follow the modular route. As far as i can tell those spending 100k plus are just spanking away 50k for fun. Use that 50k saved to buy a spamcan!

wiggy

10th Nov 2020, 07:43

Personally I think any move away from the mindset that you'll get a sure fire financial return if you or your backers "invest" 100k plus in an integrated course would be a good thing.

Aviator172s

10th Nov 2020, 08:01

I guess one of the things going on here and lie beneath all this debate (very interesting btw), is the fact that it is tremendously tough and sad to give up a dream that many of us aim to fulfill one day. I include myself here. The thing is that when you want something "so badly", you can't think rational and always try to read/seek for opinions that support your positions, but unfortunately, we need to listen to those in the industry and to those who tell us reality, which will be pretty gloomy for a couple of years (hopefully 2 or 3 in a best case scenario?).

I think is a great idea to have a PPL, fly whenever possible as time building makes up, and start ATPL theory without doing exams at least until there is some clarity about short-term future? At least, that's my idea and I try to be happy doing it, despite all this huge negativity/reality check.

BONES_

10th Nov 2020, 09:12

[irony mode ON]

Get your 100k checks ready, folks!

Freshly baked from CAE: https://www.cae.com/cae-pilot-demand-outlook-2020/index.html?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=PDO_2020_article

[irony mode OFF]

Seriously, why would they publish such article right now?!

wiggy

10th Nov 2020, 09:30

Heavens that's right up there with the best of the pre-Covid "living the dream" adverts... starting with the apparently ethnically and gender balanced images right through to fancy bar charts.

Of course the "why" is money..

parkfell

10th Nov 2020, 09:31

..........I think is a great idea to have a PPL, fly whenever possible as time building makes up, and start ATPL theory without doing exams.......

This is a terribly difficult time for those who were about to start the ‘journey’.
The analogy is joining the Church; you need to believe in a God.

The Modular route is clearly the sensible way to proceed. Keep the day job. Avoid going into debt, and gently nibble away at the hour building and once the C-19 vaccine is fully rolled out, think about booking the first exam sitting.
The 18 (up to) month clock will then start. Get the 14 Exams ✔️: up to 36 months for licence issue.
Previous advice given on whether SE IR initially, with ME/IR + MCC once it is evident that Junior Birdmen are being recruited.

The older brethren are probably better considering Turbo Prop jobs, unless of course you consider yourself to be ‘an ace of the base’.
In my experience that is about as rare of rocking horse shOneTango.

EDIT: I have now read the posting by BONES including
the cae.com ~ pilot demand link.
Nothing in that would change my thoughts on the timings stated above.
CAVEAT EMPTOR

Capewell

11th Nov 2020, 06:37

So, what do you suggest?

That everyone just stops any idea of being a pilot?

What happens in 3-4 years time when all the currently unemployed pilots are back in jobs?

Airlines surely have to accept inexperienced pilots at some point...

Sure mate give it a go, what's the worst thing that could happen? Even in the good times it is a massive gamble dropping 100k on the chance of getting in the rhs of a jet

Go for it if you really can afford it but only you can answer that.

Lots of tales of woe out there from folk that didn't make it for a myriad of reasons. I wouldn't trust any of the large training providers either.

No-one here is trying to shatter your dreams dude but at the end of the day it is just a job.

hec7or

11th Nov 2020, 07:22

No-one here is trying to shatter your dreams dude but at the end of the day it is just a job.

This is the very fact that the training schools go to great efforts to avoid mentioning. I fly with many young people, all great operators, but all pretty disillusioned at the huge gap between the dream and the reality.

Working as an airline pilot is essentially boring, repetitive, shift work and anyone who thinks otherwise either isn’t a pilot or is in denial.

VariablePitchP

11th Nov 2020, 07:34

Yes it’s boring shift work but in reality for 99% of the flights all you have to worry about is not thumping it in at the end of the flight. You don’t have to do any development work if you don’t want to, work never follows you home and the vast majority of your time at work is spent reading the paper and eating snacks.

Yes it’s just a job but for the money it is by far the easiest job you could have.

Edited because tone doesn’t come across very well in text...

clvf88

11th Nov 2020, 07:53

Please tell me you’re not an airline pilot?

PilotLZ

11th Nov 2020, 08:26

To me, sitting at a desk and going over the same standardised papers over and over again is a far more boring and repetitive job, as compared to flying. I am a pilot, so this suggests that I'm in denial. Thanks for enlightening me, it was good to learn something new about myself.

One reason why people's opinions on whether flying is a good job or a not-so-good one are so polarised is that most have never known otherwise. Some guys in their 30s who jumped into the RHS at age 20 and have never known working life outside of the flight deck think that it's a terrible job. Others, by contrast, have never had any real exposure to aviation and, from their outsider position, think that it's all roses and you get paid like a superstar and treated similarly just for sitting in a seat and watching a jet fly itself. The reality, as usually, is somewhere in between.

Aviator172s

11th Nov 2020, 08:45

Fully agree with you. I would say is in the middle of all extreme positions, as virtually everything in life... It is just a job, yes, but all of them are and a 9-5 or 9-7 job in an office (the latter, my case), with computer, numbers, endless meetings etc is not more enjoyable than flying a plane, although most of the time AP works for you. I am only a PPL holder, but it's my view on this.

ShotOne

11th Nov 2020, 08:58

“Zero responsibility..” ? In an age where almost nobody takes responsibility for anything, the flight deck is the ultimate example of where the buck-stops. If you think otherwise, variable pitch, I sincerely hope you’re not in the industry.

Bueno Hombre

11th Nov 2020, 09:12

Yes its even more difficult now because with modern communications chief pilot office can follow your flight and might advise your every move .......

Capewell

11th Nov 2020, 11:04

I'm on my third career, started flying aged 39 on a sponsored cadet scheme. Yeah the day to day stuff isn't very taxing but things do go wrong and you'd better be ready to deal with them when they do.

I'm married to an anaesthetist, most of her job is monitoring stuff and she can only kill one person at a time. Zero responsibility, really?

wiggy

11th Nov 2020, 11:20

in reality you have zero responsibility.

If you think that you haven't been paying attention...a few from my log book..

"Captain are you happy with the de-icing..we are out of de-icing fluid so if you are not happy we will need to find hotel rooms for X hundred passengers"

"Captain it will take another y hours to fix this defect, minimum, are you happy to extend your hours, if not we will need etc..."

" Birdseed 123, centre is closing en-route airspace due to weather, take up the hold at..., expect onwards clearance at HH:mm" (two hours hence), advise of your intentions"

Dupre

11th Nov 2020, 11:27

Personally if I don't do it (or at least attempt it) I'll be wondering "what if" forever more.

I'm with the more positive brigade on this one. Given that you seem to have your eyes wide open, have the cash on hand and are not going into debt for it, and that you are considering the much cheaper modular option with some potential free/low pay hour building options afterwards, I say go for it.

Clearly the industry is in a situation the like of which we have never seen before. However so many pilots in the UK (I have found) are blinkered to the multitude of interesting flying roles outside of the airlines. Many of these roles have not been impacted by the pandemic, and while I wouldn't say they are easy to come by, they are certainly more of a possibility than an airline job for the foreseeable future. I completely disagree with the common assumption that 250hrs RHS of a medium jet is the only goal worth going for. In fact I think it's a very poor goal to have for a number of reasons.

If a student is just about to go into massive debt for an integrated course expecting that in 12-18 months they'll walk into an airline job, I'd say that's a very bad idea. But in your case, with eyes wide open, no debt, a relatively slow training program and a good plan to keep some form of flying going afterwards, I think that's a good idea.

Someone on this thread (I can't see who right now to credit) mentioned doing the single engine IR which is cheaper to keep current, and when you decide to get the multi, it gives you a chance to get proficient again before interviews. I back this idea. Consider even just doing the VFR licence - you won't be needing an IR to tow gliders or drop skydivers. Then when you see opportunities needing an IR coming up again, go do the training. (when I got my CPL it was a Single Engine, Day only, VFR only license! - I'm not sure if that's allowed in the UK tbh, but it's fine in NZ)

One final thought (again not sure about the rules around training in the UK, but this was fine in NZ) - consider getting a share of an aircraft. Though some of your flying might need to be through a school/club, much of your hour building towards the CPL can be more cost effective if you own the plane. C150 or similar shares can be had for £1000-2000 with hourly flying rates around the £60/hr mark and fixed charges of around £70/month. PM me if you would like details of where to find shares advertised.

nickler

11th Nov 2020, 16:12

Yes it’s boring shift work but in reality you have zero responsibility

Can You tell me which airline You work for in the unlikely case you are a pilot ? Just in case.
Thanks.

hec7or

11th Nov 2020, 17:12

PilotLZ

11th Nov 2020, 19:30

It's true that pretty much every job has a routine element to it. Unless you're an industry-leading researcher, a designer or something else which actually involves making brand new things from scratch, there will be some form of protocol you'll be following in your working activities. There aren't thousands of ways how to make a dental filling, how to arrange a property sale or how to build court defence in a case of domestic abuse. It's all been done multiple times way before our day and we're unlikely to completely reinvent any process. The same goes for flying. So, I don't think that it's intrinsically a boring occupation just because it's quite procedural. Most jobs are in one way or another.

RedDragonFlyer

12th Nov 2020, 11:59

This is a terribly difficult time for those who were about to start the ‘journey’.
The analogy is joining the Church; you need to believe in a God.

The Modular route is clearly the sensible way to proceed. Keep the day job. Avoid going into debt, and gently nibble away at the hour building and once the C-19 vaccine is fully rolled out, think about booking the first exam sitting.
The 18 (up to) month clock will then start. Get the 14 Exams ✔️: up to 36 months for licence issue.
Previous advice given on whether SE IR initially, with ME/IR + MCC once it is evident that Junior Birdmen are being recruited.

For those of us who have already started the ATPL exams, I think this is the most reasonable response too. Delay as much as possible to extend the amount of time you have. It's worth pointing out that a number of CAAs have extended the 18 month ATPL limit due to Covid so that could give extra time too. Do be careful though for the end of the old syllabus which is/ was due in January 2022 (maybe people like Alex W. know more about this).
Someone who finishes their ATPLs in December 2021 has until December 2024 to complete the IR-CPL. That's a fairly significant amount of time.

Love the analogy too.

DontBeStupid

14th Nov 2020, 01:51

PilotLZ

True but the main factor is lifestyle, building your life around a roster that can change several times a day is fine when your early 20s but as you get older its harder when you have responsibilities and dont want to end up divorced.

Pay as a pilot is low these days and in many jobs you can define what you earn depending how good you are, not for pilots its all defined for you, very rule based!

As 2020 has shown ALOT of professional jobs can be done from home which makes it more pleasant and it will become more common. I dont know any pilots that can work from home yet.....:)

SignalSquare

14th Nov 2020, 09:28

Must agree with BALPA for the time being.
Perhaps in the years to come, todays 10 year olds will sit the exams again

charliegolf

14th Nov 2020, 23:57

Buy an aeroplane with at least 5 years of life in it., PPL, night rating, maybe instructor. Keep piling up the experience, keep adding to the training pot via your day job as you dip into the dosh to run an aircraft. Watch the pilot market, and do the ATPLs when you see a light at the end of the tunnel. Do the learning for the exams from day one. If you can't enjoy that, you ain't gonna enjoy airlines. If airlines never come back in your age-slot, you'll be a pilot. If they do, you'll be ready. My 2p worth.

Aviator172s

16th Nov 2020, 07:57

Hi there, what do you mean by do the learning for the exams? ATPL theory? I am struggling to plan the 14 subjects' theory considering all factors we nowadays face (crisis, Covid, future demand, 18month time constraint, my age, etc). I am now trying to study in my free time, but with no exam dates nor any certainty of the best plan to organise it, I find it pretty much difficult to properly progress in it.

parkfell

16th Nov 2020, 08:27

From previous posts you are suggesting that really only weekends are the only free time you have, due to your work commitments.
As difficult as it may sound, try and do one hour of study after work, and a few hours at the weekend. You need to get into a routine if you hope to make progress. Gently nibble away at it.
I was fortunate working shifts which effectively freed up far more time for study.
The clock will not start until the first exam sitting, and you will have a far clearer picture in 9-12 months time once the vaccines are fully rolled out.
These days the order you sit papers are totally flexible. You need to consider doing the more challenging papers first?

Capt Pit Bull

16th Nov 2020, 09:07

These days the order you sit papers are totally flexible. You need to consider doing the more challenging papers first?

Do them in the order specified by your ATO or you will have difficulty getting the classroom time. Some ATOs have put a lot of thought into the sequence. Others..... haven’t.

Aviator172s

16th Nov 2020, 11:19

Since I am doing it online, and have not attended classes by the moment, I have no clear order to be honest. I have started with M&B and performance, since it might be one of the toughest? Which ones do you think are the toughest ones?
I have some CAE books which are 2 or 3 years old, hope this is not a problem if syllabus hasn't changed much.

charliegolf

16th Nov 2020, 13:09

My post assumed a long lead-in for the OP to start 'formal' training. 'Do the learning now', was meant to mean that there is nothing to stop you getting into the books now. Read the books, leave the Q banks for a bit later, don't be stressing over the exams; or constantly doing tests! I despair at the idea that 'building hours' and 'cramming for the exams', is the right way to look at it. Student pilots should be 'building up their experience', and' broadening their knowledge base', not the former.

Capt Pit Bull

21st Nov 2020, 07:46

Aviator172s

Are you signed up with an ATO?

If so, do them in the order they specify. If not, get signed up with an ATO.

You can’t just self study and go and sit the exams. There are minimum training hours requirements, if you turn up at an ATO saying “Hi, I’m ready to take these exams “ you’ll be in for a disappointment.

Why would you start with PERF and M&B? There are relationships between the subjects that mean there are some sensible orders for doing things in. PERF is a natural follow on from POF, so starting with PERF is sub optimal.

Most ATOs group the subjects into related topics and then provide the mandatory training time in those groups. If you try and do your own thing you’ll be very lucky to have their timetabling match your plan.

Bottom line is that you need to engage with your ATO. Don’t try and reinvent the wheel.