Smaller aircraft on the horizon PERHAPS

[cannot]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3104044/coronavirus-cathay-pacific-mulls-smaller-aircraft-business

[Bangaluru]

That article makes it sound like a decision is a long way off. So I suppose a decision is indeed imminent.

[unitedabx]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3104044/coronavirus-cathay-pacific-mulls-smaller-aircraft-business


Danny over at SCMP grasping at straws. The Cathay Group has many irons in fires and it would not be surprising if some or all would be sold or hived off ( if anyone would buy them ). Qatar is flush with cash and will be watching the 293 share price. A quick and inexpensive entry into the China SE Asia market. Two Qatari executive G650's visiting HKIA over the weekend. Gone now.

PS Don't tell Danny.

[Drc40]

The article sounds like the decision is already made, not a long way off. I’m thinking smaller aircraft like ATR’s, Dash, etc will be in the works while the big jets will be sold off to the highest bidder. Cargo is the only operations keeping CX going at the moment.

With Chek Lap Kok passenger numbers at 1-2% of previous volumes it’s the hardest hit airport in the world. COVId is only a small part of that problem. The geopolitical situation has already sealed the City’s fate and the airline is following suite.

I’m af raid Cathay and HK will never be the same. The jewel of SE Asia and the plum of Airline operations worldwide are gone. I’m thinking CX will be the modern day PanAm.

[Dan Winterland]

I’m thinking smaller aircraft like ATR’s, Dash, etc will be in the works

787/350s instead of the 777-300X more like.

[Bangaluru]

The article sounds like the decision is already made, not a long way off. I’m thinking smaller aircraft like ATR’s, Dash, etc will be in the works while the big jets will be sold off to the highest bidder. Cargo is the only operations keeping CX going at the moment.

With Chek Lap Kok passenger numbers at 1-2% of previous volumes it’s the hardest hit airport in the world. COVId is only a small part of that problem. The geopolitical situation has already sealed the City’s fate and the airline is following suite.

I’m af raid Cathay and HK will never be the same. The jewel of SE Asia and the plum of Airline operations worldwide are gone. I’m thinking CX will be the modern day PanAm.

Maybe the long sleeved senior fleeters (are there any left?) can be repurposed onto a Q400 for a quick 2hr30min flight to Taipei at FL230. :}

[Sam Ting Wong]

I don't see the logic behind the argument for (much) smaller aircraft, beside possibly the lack of funds to pay for them.

Either we have a vaccine/quick test or we don't.

As Dan said, maybe a downgrade from 777 to A350 or 787, so still a wide body and hardly "small".

DRC, nothing will ever be the same. Additionally, you are confusing civil rights with the economy. Asia will be the primary growth market of the aviation industry for decades to come, and Hong Kong will not only survive this, but remain one of the most prosperous cities of the region.

[Curry Lamb]

SIZE does MATTER - in this case :ok:

[Rie]

Maybe the long sleeved senior fleeters (are there any left?) can be repurposed onto a Q400 for a quick 2hr30min flight to Taipei at FL230. :}
Vomit Comets from May to October each year...

The group now has a large number of smaller planes already. 320 and 321neos can easily be positioned under any of the AOCs

It is just another Danny article anyway... grain of salt

[Drc40]

I don't see the logic behind the argument for (much) smaller aircraft, beside possibly the lack of funds to pay for them.

Either we have a vaccine/quick test or we don't.

As Dan said, maybe a downgrade from 777 to A350 or 787, so still a wide body and hardly "small".

DRC, nothing will ever be the same. Additionally, you are confusing civil rights with the economy. Asia will be the primary growth market of the aviation industry for decades to come, and Hong Kong will not only survive this, but remain one of the most prosperous cities of the region.

Don’t believe you. Hong Kong is in the bullseye of the chicomms. They will do just enough to let HK’ers feel sort of OK but never let them fully prosper as in the part. HK has already suffered immeasurable financial and quality of life losses that will never be regained. There is nothing you can point too disputing that fact. Forget civil rights, HK’ers will be assimilated into the Beijing chicomm vision and it’s already WELL underway. I hope everyone gets the hell out ASAP. Take your money and property because Xi is already looking for more storage units to pack it all away.

[Get.over.it]

787/350s instead of the 777-300X more like.
No such thing as the 777-300X, I presume you meant the 777-9 or 777-8?

[krismiler]

Airlines which already have the A320/1 and B787 in their fleet seem to be using them in preference to larger aircraft. Easier to fill and cheap to operate, with little if any premium cabin flying around unused.

EK got badly caught out with only the B777 and A380, QR not so much with smaller to medium types available.

[Suvarnabhumi]

The A220, A321LR , 787, and A350 seem the aircraft of choice in this new normal. Easier to fill to max ZFW and make a precious operating profit.

777X too big and too expensive to buy, especially in this current low fuel price era.

[Curry Lamb]

The A220, A321LR , 787, and A350 seem the aircraft of choice in this new normal. Easier to fill to max ZFW and make a precious operating profit.

777X too big and too expensive to buy, especially in this current low fuel price era.

And don’t forget the “A50” - great aircraft for “Catfay Paciic”


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1600x1600/42db302b_0706_49cf_bc07_315b53939e1b_376e219d84e1f2e67de16ec c399e6f99140509c8.jpeg

[OK4Wire]

If you can't get the little details right...

[fly1981]

Vomit Comets from May to October each year...

The group now has a large number of smaller planes already. 320 and 321neos can easily be positioned under any of the AOCs

It is just another Danny article anyway... grain of salt

there would be no need to reposition anything, just down scale the wide body operation.

[1200firm]

If HKG was "just another city in China" then there would be a booming domestic travel market and CX/KA would actually be semi busy.

[Curry Lamb]

Wrong! The hordes from up north are not welcome in the territory, locals have made that abundantly clear in the past. “Domestic” travel is dead, international travel ain’t gonna happen anytime soon.
Only saving grace is transit pax, and some cargo flights that keeps the circus on the road - for now.

[AQIS Boigu]

Maybe NR should have ordered those 777F planes

[fly1981]

The cx groups recovery will be lead by China, Following that, Asia in general. Initially narrow bodies will make sense but not long term, as the capability for the majority of cx’s network is not there. I imagine the article refers to smaller wide bodies.

[unitedabx]

The cx groups recovery will be lead by China, Following that, Asia in general. Initially narrow bodies will make sense but not long term, as the capability for the majority of cx’s network is not there. I imagine the article refers to smaller wide bodies.
Unfortunately, The Swire Group only knows and has only ever deployed one method of coping with a crisis, "cuts". Each department will be told to cut by 20-30% regardless of their value and need. The airline will shrink by 20-30% overnight and the managers will be able to say that costs have dropped. But this time around that will not suffice. A total restructuring will be needed. This means some departments will not be needed at all and others will need increasing. A total restructure means a total rethink of how the airline works. Top to Toe dictatorships, masonic led flight ops teams, golf buddy engineering teams,fear driven ISD will need dismantling. The problem employees face is that The Swire Group doesn't have the capacity or will to do this. So the restructuring we will see shortly will be "cuts" disguised by clever words but the operating system will remain the same. Unfortunately, this is now obsolete. When the big investors see this they will pull the plug. The proof is that of all the major airlines in the world only The CX Group has not uttered a word of what they will do. This isn't because they have found the secret to survival and the others haven't. It's because they don't have any new plan just dusting off the Swire Answer "CUTS" and hope for the best.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Baseless and entirely speculative blaming of management for a global pandemic and complete breakdown of demand is just silly.

Those who complain about waiting for decisions don't see the dynamic and ever changing nature of the current situation. It also complacently disregards ties and obligations that come with the capital injections and wage subsidies by the Hong Kong government. And while some moan out of retirement on pprune, Swire successfully negotiated and received this state support, a first in the history of Hong Kong. Without this vital help, Cathay would be dead as we speak.

Whatever any airline decided yesterday might be invalid tomorrow. There is no definite answer or final "restructuring". Restructuring to what? To which scenario? After the decision is before the decision.The idea we are the only ones deliberately kept in the dark is a misconception. Every airline on the planet is constantly re-evaluating the situation, whether they laid off yet or not. Any day can bring new decisions and surprises, regardless of past announcements, at every airline. The security and assurances you expect are not available, nowhere.If you don't believe me have a read of the other forums, e.g. ME or BA.

I personally take waiting while getting paid before being laid off three months ago anytime, thank you very much.

[Sam Ting Wong]

You ignore the political context.

Cathay is not paying our wages, the Hong Kong government does.

Cathay is not losing, quite the opposite. The deal with the government saved the company.

PS I actually do keep my helper even I don't need her right now. I think it is the decent thing to do.

[Drc40]

Guess the company should keep all unnecessary pilots too, hey it’s the decent thing to do.

[Sam Ting Wong]

I did not claim the current situation was sustainable, nor did I say nobody laid off their helper. I said I don't lay off mine because I think it would be wrong.

This is not The Apprentice Show, this is real life and real families are affected. I am stunned you are basically asking the company to lay off fellow pilots or their helpers. I find your statements cynical.

Your claim that state support has run out is incorrect. The company struck a deal, and a very important one. Without that deal we would not have this discussion, we would be all busy packing. Part of that vital and cleverly brokered deal, without prescedence in the history of Hong Kong, was not to lay off, for the moment. It baffles me how it is so difficult to understand and accept political implications as part of state intervention.

The waiting is unpleasant, I get it. But read the comments on the forums concerning employers who already started to lay off.You will notice those not affected are still anxious, and those who have been laid off are desperate. How is that better compared to our situation?

Your desire for a final and reliable answer from management is not available, nobody can give you that security right now.

There is no such thing as a definite restructuring, at any airline, as long there is no vaccine. It will continue to be a very umcomfortable ride, regardless of any future announcements.

[WeelardPassord]

I think the word is “ right sizing “ not “downsizing”...downsizing has never been used by the company. There is a difference.
Company wants to save as much money as possible and making a few thousand pilots redundant and having to pay them off will not save the company money .
they don’t want to be caught when things pick up and have to rehire/retrain , I optimistically see will be voluntarily unpaid or some sort of salary reduction scheme.
If the airplanes don’t fly , they don’t make money. They need pilots. And this Covid is just temporary.

[Oasis]

This is all taking so long, that we will likely be out of Covid territory, if we still have money left.
I think this may be a case of Hong Kong style leadership by consensus, and not very decisive in the short term.
I hope this will not go down in the history books as the airline that was the deer caught in the headlight.

[Flying Clog]

Most of you are right, for various reasons I suppose. But this is a fast moving situation and no airline can even look a week ahead, let alone plan for the medium or long term.

CX is screwed because of massive incompetence and ineptitude. We all saw the writing on the wall years ago, and the fuel hedging debacle just put the icing on the cake.

We work for the biggest collection of muppets in the management/airline industry, and they can no longer rest on their laurels, sadly.

I see a massive swipe coming across in terms of redundancy, and cuts to Ts and Cs like housing. Because that's all they can think to do.

I suppose they've tried to be clever, waiting for the long awaited opening of the border to the trash up north, but that isn't happening. And since we rely so heavily on transits and long haul, we're screwed, just like Emirates.

Until Dragon gets back on it's feet, flying up north. Until then, it's going to be a blood bath.

[SanMig]

I think these last two posts are the most accurate ones I have ever read on this site. CX management have not reacted quickly enough, and until China opens up nothing can save this company. 3 months ago CX should have let go 25% of its pilots, now its more like 50%. Shared pain through special leave and reduced salaries is not going to help, massive cuts are the only panacea.

[main_dog]

Listening to pilots discuss how they would fire/slash T&Cs is like watching cows at the abattoir discussing which cut of meat is juiciest and which bit the butcher should slice off first...

:ugh:

[AQIS Boigu]

My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈

[doolay]

But he gets to fly a shiny jet!!!

[Shoebox]

My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈

:ugh::ugh::ugh:

Race to the bottom it is then.

[Rie]

:ugh::ugh::ugh:

Race to the bottom it is then.

Hong Kong Express doesn't have the contractual history and backing of unions like that of Cathay. They were always a small Chinese run company on narrow body jet aircraft. They never had the crew complement to be able to increase pay to the levels of the big players. People I know in the company are proud to have had their time on the Embraer and move upwards to the Boeing and Airbus. I say good for them, they have given their loyalty and have been rewarded. Not everyone cares about flying a wide body, some people enjoy family life at home every night.

I must say that your friend should be ashamed for being proud to be the cheapest but he cannot help his level of pay. It is just a carry over from the mainland owners who would have removed anyone for thinking they could have higher remuneration.

[Avinthenews]

My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈

A good month at HKE is better than bad month at CX on COS18, just ask any that joined CX from HKE. KA must have COS18 crews who will be the same. It'll all come down to the monthly hours and rostering which will eventually be the JCP/JCR system for all.

[Slasher1]

I don’t think they have had a clue and don’t think they have a clue at this point. Perhaps they will have one in a month or two and how to handle the various contracts without breaching them where it counts.

I do know that all of this is simple conjecture at this point and most are getting paid something. So maybe better to stash that money away for whatever might happen.

I also know from what I read here that there are several with a very bright future ahead—regardless of the WuFlu world. Simply bottle up whatever it is you’re apparently smoking when you come up with these ideas and market it in a venue like California.

You’ll make zillions.

[benttrees]

My mate at HKE is proud of being cheaper than his KA colleagues 🤯🙈Your mate needs to have a long hard think about that !

[SloppyJoe]

Boom (https://boomsupersonic.com/)

Need to get in line for some of these. Europe to Aus in less than 1/2 the time. Small, premium. Will be interested to see how much fuel it uses and if they have solved the noise problem. The company name makes me think no.

[s6b]

4500nm range. Where are you going to tech stop - Astana?

[AllWobbly]

4500nm range. Where are you going to tech stop - Astana?

In any case I’d be just as happy tucked up in cx first class asleep over night. It’s certainly going to cost as much .
Any time saved ultra long haul wouldn’t work well with curfews in places like lhr

[Momoe]

The other issue is that this was conceived pre-Covid. Surmising that 4500nm is optimised for transatlantic routes, although some routes for ME based carriers might work.

A large proportion of that anticipated traffic doesn't existing currently and it's uncertain when it will return to make this even vaguely viable; it's an expensive solution for a niche problem