TBM850 down near Buffalo, NY

[CAP A330]

Reports say 2 dead, radio contact lost, re established and lost again

n965dm

[JanetFlight]

Last minutes here.


youtube.com/watch?v=rwbvlrfBqqg

[atakacs]

Strange one - spatial disorientation ? incapacitation ?

[aa777888]

Wild ass guess: pressurization problem leading to incapacitation.

[fitliker]

Does the TBM have a CVR ?
He was not talking on the radio so my wag would be an electrical failure of some kind or hit the master by mistake . Autopilot kicking off in the dark due to electrical issues would be a challenge for a full time pilot . I cannot imagine a part time pilot coping very well with an electrical issue at night .
Add fatigue that is ignored by most private Operator guys and who knows ?

[Climb150]

Does the TBM have a CVR ?
He was not talking on the radio so my wag would be an electrical failure of some kind or hit the master by mistake . Autopilot kicking off in the dark due to electrical issues would be a challenge for a full time pilot . I cannot imagine a part time pilot coping very well with an electrical issue at night .
Add fatigue that is ignored by most private Operator guys and who knows ?
It was the middle of the day. Light winds with few clouds.

[fitliker]

Thanks for pointing out the correct time .
Electrical issues could have caused the windows to frost up on descent out of the flight levels , no attitude information . I have had several smoke and fire events in flight . Not easy to get deal with even when well rested and well drilled in Emergency procedures .

[Airbubba]

NTSB News Release on the TBM 700 crash.

NTSB News Release
National Transportation Safety Board Office of Safety Recommendations and CommunicationsStatement from NTSB’s Deputy Director for Regional Operations10/5/2020​ WASHINGTON (Oct. 5, 2020) — The National Transportation Safety Board (http://www.ntsb.gov/)issued a statement Monday detailing the actions the agency has taken since Friday in its ongoing investigation of the fatal crash of a Socata TBM 700 airplane near Pembroke, New York.

“Contrary to some media reporting, the NTSB is, and has been since Friday, actively investigating this crash,” said Tim LeBaron, Deputy Director for Regional Operations in the NTSB’s Office of Aviation Safety (https://go.usa.gov/xG6mU). “Our investigation of this crash does not rely solely upon our physical presence at the crash site, in fact, on-scene activities are but one portion of the many necessary to our investigative process.”

The NTSB’s working relationship with the FAA facilitated the NTSB Investigator-in-Charge’s ability to obtain information about the condition of the wreckage and the crash site. The NTSB directed that the salvaged wreckage be taken to a secure facility for examination, and the airplane’s insurer selected a facility in Springfield, Tennessee. The recovery of the wreckage is ongoing, and the NTSB’s Investigator-in-Charge will receive updates as the recovery progresses.

The Investigator-in-Charge has named parties (https://go.usa.gov/xG6mN) to the NTSB’s investigation as well as two accredited representatives representing the investigative bodies from the country of manufacture for the airplane and the country of manufacture for the plane’s engine.

Examination of the wreckage will include follow-up testing of components as needed, a search for indications of malfunctions that could have contributed to the crash and examination of controls for continuity.

“Away from the scene, we are following our standard investigative processes that include obtaining air traffic control data, meteorological data, pilot training and medical certification records, and maintenance records for the airplane,” said LeBaron. “Our investigators have interviewed numerous witnesses Sunday as part of our standard process (https://go.usa.gov/xG6mW)for gathering factual information.”

NTSB does investigate every aviation accident in the United States, which number on average around 1,300 annually. However, NTSB investigators do not travel to the site of each and every accident they investigate. For example, in 2019, the NTSB sent aviation investigators to the scene of 221 accidents out of the 1,310 aviation accidents investigated by the agency that year. Travel to crash sites is not the only travel associated with accident investigations; many investigations require follow-up travel to conduct examinations and tests of recovered hardware and components.

The NTSB expects to publish its preliminary report for the investigation of Friday’s crash within the next few weeks. Investigations involving fatalities, and other major investigations, currently take between 12 and 24 months to complete.

[lederhosen]

Some interesting information available particularly from Blancolirio on YouTube. The pilot lost radio contact and was way past the normal descent point when he reestablished communication. The controller trying to be helpful told him that he would be vectored over the airport at Buffalo with a turn back onto downwind (logically left 270 degrees to give room to descend). The pilot may not have understood this and as a private pilot flying a very high performance aircraft it is speculated he got behind the aircraft and lost situational awareness. In any case a very high rate of descent and speed developed along with a right turn in the direction of the downwind. The radar shows speeds well over 400 knots and it is possible he exceeded VNE and there was an ensuing breakup. This is just speculation, but it is one scenario that might fit the information available so far. I fly a high performance single (not nearly as high performance as a TBM) and the incredible amount of automation can make normal operation very simple. But once you get outside your comfort zone things can happen very quickly, particularly single pilot.