Is the Cadet Pilot extinct down under?

[wheels_down]

It appears that may operators globally are targeting cadets in layoffs. It appears there is going to be no need for any Cadet Factories in the medium to even long term.

However it appears our operators have yet to drop the axe on such programs, as I am aware of one who is still ‘business as normal’. Even though the airlines pilots, who have recently been advised of reduced workload in the coming years, would be lucky to see a roster every couple of months. Then there is the issue of current Cadets within the company facing delayed promotion prospects, which in turn puts the brakes on the next fresh batch walking in the door.

Many of these cadets have been giving some form of false hope in that they will be rehired when things improve, or, in that they are young they will have long and distinguished careers ahead. I’m not convinced that a 45yr old Emirates or Tiger FO will be overlooked for a 20 something 2 striper with a very basic CV. They don’t have any GA background to back them up if they wanted to go down that route.

I also have an issue with the large amount of people who have been made redundant and then replacing these people with fresh 2 stripes in the future.

I guess that opens up the next can of worms, are all these big flying operations producing dozens of CPL pilots yearly, essentially a dead business? I can’t see any Labor governments propping them up.

[neville_nobody]

I was wondering a similar thing myself. I can't see any airline in Australia needing cadets for at least 5 years. REX will keep their one going as it's more about IR and it probably makes money than actually requiring the pilots.

Any flying school is pretty much dead in the water unless next year airlines really rebound in a big way.

The real issue for cadets is the inability to fly out their airline due lack of experience.

[dr dre]

It appears that may operators globally are targeting cadets in layoffs.

At SQ cadets layed off were still under training, therefore at the bottom of the seniority list and the first to be targeted. That's similar to what other carriers are doing, cadets or not. Airlines in the USA are furloughing plenty of pilots at the bottom of the seniority list too, no cadets over there. Don't forget that in most of the world outside the US (partially in Australia) "cadets" (those trained to multicrew jobs straight after initial training) are the norm, not the exception.

However it appears our operators have yet to drop the axe on such programs, as I am aware of one who is still ‘business as normal’.

They wouldn't want to. You're training people for a decades long career. This pandemic and recession will pass. Baby boomers are retiring. Developing world and Asia industrializing and growing, these factors will be back in play in the next 5 years, and by decade's end we'll all be back in it again. It'll be those who trained via an affiliated airline's cadet or ab initio course who are first in line to be recruited too, before anyone from GA. This is the way airlines are headed and the speed bump of the current recession will not change that.

The real issue for cadets is the inability to fly out their airline due lack of experience.

You sure? If it's MPL you're talking about then there was a case in the UK where an airline training MPL cadets went bust, the cadets were allowed to continue their MPL after being recruited into another airline after a short conversion. However since no Australian airlines use MPL it's not relevant. All here are trained for a CPL, so they're in the same boat as any trainee pilot, except they are a known quantity to the airline during their training, and would be the first in line for recruitment when it restarts. This has been the case here previously (airlines with big gaps in hiring dates looked at their own unemployed cadets first before considering external candidates).

[Le Chiffre]

There will be no demand for cadets globally in the next 2-3 years when there is so little demand for air travel and experienced FOs are being put on 50% hours or being made redundant. Airlines operating 30% schedules at 30% capacity is simply not sustainable long-term.

I can see flying schools going bust or having to mothball until the industry recovers.

Anyone pressing ahead and starting out as a cadet in the current global picture is absolutely insane.

[Derfred]

I disagree. Do the course, knowing that there probably won’t be a job waiting for you at the end of it.

Then take your fresh CPL and go bush, like a normal GA pilot would, knowing that you will be competing for C206 gigs with ex-airline pilots with thousands of hours.

That’s ok...Work in a bar up north or out west, pick fruit, sweep hangars, fix 4wd’s or whatever else you can find, and network with whatever pilots and charter mobs you can find until you find yourself in the seat of something that flies. That’s what we all used to do. You might find an operator who actually wants you over a redundant airline jock who expects the coffee delivered to them rather than the other way around. Depends how you present yourself.

A few years later, you might get a phone call from your cadet airline operator. If so, sweet! You would have a few years of real blues and real flying, and you would never forget it. If not, keep doing what you are doing until you have the hours and experience to make in an airline, old-school. You won’t regret that either.

If you aren’t prepared to do that, then I would argue that you shouldn’t be doing a cadet course in the first place. You need to love flying to enjoy this career, and that means doing whatever it takes.

Airlines always go in waves. When you are at the bottom of a wave, it can be impossible to see the top.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see our industry going gangbusters within 5 years. Maybe it will be 4, maybe 7. But it will happen.

[Le Chiffre]

I mean yea, if you are prepared to mortgage your future to the tune of £100k in the middle of probably the greatest crisis the industry has ever seen.

[Derfred]

There will always be downturns. Better to do it in a downturn with a clear picture of the troughs and wait for an upturn than do it in an upturn and get dismayed and destroyed by the next downturn!

I know, it’s a contrary view, but like the old adage, when your taxi driver is telling you to buy shares, it’s time to sell.

When everyone is telling you not to go to flying school, it might actually be a good time to sign up. You’ll be in the right position to ride the next wave (assuming you have the $100K of course!)

[Le Chiffre]

Agreed - but this isn't part of the usual 10-15 year upturn / downturn cycle. This is something completely different. There are, literally, thousands being laid off or put on P/T hours.

[Derfred]

Right now, there are, yes. Just 6 months into it we feel the hole is so deep it’s impossible to perceive a recovery.

Humankind has always prevailed. This virus is not the worst global event in the last 100 years. We were swinging in the 50’s after WWII. That era proved the zest for prosperity after 5 years of despair. This virus won’t give us 5 years of despair. We have medical science, vaccines only months away from certification, rapid testing on the horizon, etc. Sure, aviation won’t return overnight, but my optimism remains.

[Le Chiffre]

Again, agreed.

At the risk of turning this into a Covid-19 thread, the problem is public confidence and perception. Governments have scared the **** out of people. Road traffic collisions are a bigger risk to people under 45 than Covid-19 is.

We need to work out a sensible, risk balanced approach. Shield the most vulnerable, let everyone else get on with life.

[Derfred]

...At the risk of turning this into a Covid-19 thread...

Ah, but you did, didn’t you! My fault, sorry, I started it. We can discuss that on another thread.

No-one knows how COVID is going to play out, nor do they know the timeframe.

All I am suggesting is that at some point it will be all sorted out along with economic activity resuming, and when it does, the pent-up demand will possibly blow all gloomy predictions out of the water.

That’s the moment you want to have your CPL finished, a few bush hours, and ready to ride the next wave of aviation boom.

That’s not the moment to start your training, because if you do, then I guarantee that the stock market will crash again the day after you get your CPL in the mail.

As I said, it’s contrary, but so is “buy low, sell high.”

In my first post on this thread I suggested 5 years, maybe 4-7.

Very bold of me to make such a prediction in a completely unknown climate. But on reflection, I’m going to stand by it.

“I believe that a cadet or a GA pilot starting tomorrow will have the opportunity for RPT Turbo Prop or better in 5 years (with a variance of 4-7 years).”

I’m going to take a screen-shot of this post and see how I go.

What’s your prediction?

[aviation_enthus]

Ah, but you did, didn’t you! My fault, sorry, I started it. We can discuss that on another thread.

No-one knows how COVID is going to play out, nor do they know the timeframe.

All I am suggesting is that at some point it will be all sorted out along with economic activity resuming, and when it does, the pent-up demand will possibly blow all gloomy predictions out of the water.

That’s the moment you want to have your CPL finished, a few bush hours, and ready to ride the next wave of aviation boom.

That’s not the moment to start your training, because if you do, then I guarantee that the stock market will crash again the day after you get your CPL in the mail.

As I said, it’s contrary, but so is “buy low, sell high.”

In my first post on this thread I suggested 5 years, maybe 4-7.

Very bold of me to make such a prediction in a completely unknown climate. But on reflection, I’m going to stand by it.

“I believe that a cadet or a GA pilot starting tomorrow will have the opportunity for RPT Turbo Prop or better in 5 years (with a variance of 4-7 years).”

I’m going to take a screen-shot of this post and see how I go.

What’s your prediction?

I think you’re probably right!!

I’ve been thinking something similar. All the pilots being made redundant now, may be facing upto 2 years before any significant hiring starts again. A large number of those pilots will either retire or find another career. How many will change back to an airline gig when the music starts again? My guess would be not many.

So this will result in a large chunk of experience vanishing from the industry. When hiring starts again, it won’t take long to “pick up the slack” and run out of qualified pilots to move up.

Combined this with the view that now is NOT the time to start training, you’ll also have a lack of fresh CPL drivers coming through at the bottom. So again, when hiring starts, qualified pilots will be picked up pretty quick.

For perspective, the US domestic market took 3 years to recover after 9/11. That was also only a 30% drop. So a 4-5 year timeframe to see a recovery back to 2019 levels isn’t unreasonable, especially in international travel.

[clark y]

When the wheel turns and recruiting starts again, who would be the cheapest to employ?

[Australopithecus]

I see five challenges to starting a long career in aviation:

1. The virus, to which we will adapt by vaccine, treatment or realpolitik. We are likely past the halfway point about now.
2. The long term economic harm that the global slowdown has caused which, like 2008, will take a long time to overcome.
3. Technology. Both the Zoom type of virtual travel which reduces premium cabin demand, and advances in autonomous (or semi, or remote) aeroplane control which the airframe builders are already investing in.
4. Climate change, which is going to loom ever larger as a damper on discretionary fossil fuel burn.
5. The biggie.The downward pressure on wages and conditions which we are just now starting to see redoubled. The invention of the LCC started the rot, and now airlines emerging from bankruptcy want to pay meagre wages which will in turn put pressure on other airlines’ pilots.

The days of going bush to bang around in a forty year old single are gone. No one in airline HR cares about that kind of experience. And who the hell wants to pay $140,000 just to starve for a few years against a potential future job which may not ever be stable or rewarding? My 30 year old sparky drives up in his Dodge Ram and speaks of just buying his second house. A lot of my 40 yr old aviation colleagues are wondering about losing theirs.

[Sunfish]

The real question is wether we will ever return to pre covid “normal” or will covid be the turning point for the start (in hindsight of course) for a completely new era - one that may not feature massive international tourism and domestic air travel. We don’t know the answer.

‘’Thus, start a cadetship entails more risk than before on two fronts; the risk associated with finding employment and the salary you receive once employed.

Is the era of “we have a lon weekend, let’s do Bali/ Majorca/Amsterdam” over?

What is the impact of the green movement and flight shaming?

What is the impact of cold war II with Russia and China?

Indications are that Zoom meetings, working from home, etc. etc., have sparked the end of CBD offices and maximum business travel.

Our superannuation savings have been trashed. The millennials haven’t got spare cash for travel.

Over to you. Good luck.

[dontgive2FACs]

Are cadet pilot programmes extinct for the foreseeable future?

Put simply, Yes.

[ScepticalOptomist]

I disagree. Do the course, knowing that there probably won’t be a job waiting for you at the end of it.

Then take your fresh CPL and go bush, like a normal GA pilot would, knowing that you will be competing for C206 gigs with ex-airline pilots with thousands of hours.

That’s ok...Work in a bar up north or out west, pick fruit, sweep hangars, fix 4wd’s or whatever else you can find, and network with whatever pilots and charter mobs you can find until you find yourself in the seat of something that flies. That’s what we all used to do. You might find an operator who actually wants you over a redundant airline jock who expects the coffee delivered to them rather than the other way around. Depends how you present yourself.

A few years later, you might get a phone call from your cadet airline operator. If so, sweet! You would have a few years of real blues and real flying, and you would never forget it. If not, keep doing what you are doing until you have the hours and experience to make in an airline, old-school. You won’t regret that either.

If you aren’t prepared to do that, then I would argue that you shouldn’t be doing a cadet course in the first place. You need to love flying to enjoy this career, and that means doing whatever it takes.

Airlines always go in waves. When you are at the bottom of a wave, it can be impossible to see the top.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see our industry going gangbusters within 5 years. Maybe it will be 4, maybe 7. But it will happen.

Precisely. Couldn’t agree more. Helps to have been around a while in order to have a sense of perspective.

This, like every other downturn, will pass.

[PilotLZ]

I think you’re probably right!!

I’ve been thinking something similar. All the pilots being made redundant now, may be facing upto 2 years before any significant hiring starts again. A large number of those pilots will either retire or find another career. How many will change back to an airline gig when the music starts again? My guess would be not many.

So this will result in a large chunk of experience vanishing from the industry. When hiring starts again, it won’t take long to “pick up the slack” and run out of qualified pilots to move up.

Combined this with the view that now is NOT the time to start training, you’ll also have a lack of fresh CPL drivers coming through at the bottom. So again, when hiring starts, qualified pilots will be picked up pretty quick.

For perspective, the US domestic market took 3 years to recover after 9/11. That was also only a 30% drop. So a 4-5 year timeframe to see a recovery back to 2019 levels isn’t unreasonable, especially in international travel.
I fully endorse your view. Even if there's no shortage of CPL holders with undefined experience, a shortage of experienced candidates is enough to put the boot on the other foot once again. By my most avant-garde estimates, producing a quality Captain takes a bare minimum of 7-8 years (initial training - 2 years, FO experience - 4-5 years, another year or two of command experience to settle in and actually find your feet in that LHS). Producing a line trainer thus takes at least 10 years, zero to hero.

The question is, who's going to fill that void if the top part of the list gets shaved off by early retirement, those in the lower half walk away from flying in large numbers and new entrants put their training plans on hold and potentially bin them while waiting for a complete recovery?

Back on the subject of training - cadetships will likely not be a thing for a couple of years as the last thing on the mind of a financially troubled airline is long-term strategic investment. But those who left high school this summer or are about to next summer have some seriously good prospects if they play their cards wisely. Go to uni - that's 3-4 years spent in a quality way. Do as much as you can of your CPL in the meantime. Before you know it, it's 2025 out there, you hold a degree and a CPL and the doors are open everywhere. You're fully equipped with a licence and a substantial backup qualification. And you're far better positioned than those who will barely start training in 5 or 7 years.

[Ladloy]

I fully endorse your view. Even if there's no shortage of CPL holders with undefined experience, a shortage of experienced candidates is enough to put the boot on the other foot once again. By my most avant-garde estimates, producing a quality Captain takes a bare minimum of 7-8 years (initial training - 2 years, FO experience - 4-5 years, another year or two of command experience to settle in and actually find your feet in that LHS). Producing a line trainer thus takes at least 10 years, zero to hero.

The question is, who's going to fill that void if the top part of the list gets shaved off by early retirement, those in the lower half walk away from flying in large numbers and new entrants put their training plans on hold and potentially bin them while waiting for a complete recovery?

Back on the subject of training - cadetships will likely not be a thing for a couple of years as the last thing on the mind of a financially troubled airline is long-term strategic investment. But those who left high school this summer or are about to next summer have some seriously good prospects if they play their cards wisely. Go to uni - that's 3-4 years spent in a quality way. Do as much as you can of your CPL in the meantime. Before you know it, it's 2025 out there, you hold a degree and a CPL and the doors are open everywhere. You're fully equipped with a licence and a substantial backup qualification. And you're far better positioned than those who will barely start training in 5 or 7 years.
That's a lot of debt to roll the dice on aviation. I think the younger generation have been hounded so much for being 'financially unstable' that they will pick safe, risk free jobs. My guess is what will be left is the rich entitled kids who have parents with fat wallets bankrolling their way to a CPL, no matter how many repeats it takes.

[dr dre]

My guess is what will be left is the rich entitled kids who have parents with fat wallets bankrolling their way to a CPL, no matter how many repeats it takes.

You’re aware a proper cadet program is designed to avoid that? Candidates undergo a selection process, training is structured and monitored and repeated fail attempts at assessments wouldn’t be tolerated? You can’t just pay your way to a job.

[TBM-Legend]

Qantas cadets still buzzing around Wellcamp...

[KRUSTY 34]

Cadetships nowadays are almost always self funded. $100-150K? Employers demand a return of service for this “Golden Opportunity”, typically 5-7 years. In return, the “Contract” usually guarantees a job at the end, subject to achieving the required standards of course.

In a massive downturn such as this, redundancies are the order of the day and most industrial agreements specify in the reverse order of seniority.

Oops!

[dr dre]

Cadetships nowadays are almost always self funded. $100-150K? Employers demand a return of service for this “Golden Opportunity”, typically 5-7 years. In return, the “Contract” usually guarantees a job at the end, subject to achieving the required standards of course.


I can only think of one carrier in Oz doing that, and the bonded amount wasn’t that much for a 7 year minimum employment. I also know of some carriers who were bonding any pilot with a similar amount, cadet or GA, for their endorsement training too.

Every other carrier that was operating a cadet program had no obligation beyond a minimum notice period if the cadet was self funded, and some did choose that option to take their labor elsewhere before or early on during their employment with said carrier.

[dr dre]

In a massive downturn such as this, redundancies are the order of the day and most industrial agreements specify in the reverse order of seniority.

Oops!

And those at the bottom could’ve been employed via any stream, cadet, GA, military. Some of the most senior pilots at airlines are cadets.

A company needs to make the bottom pilot redundant, if that happens to be an ex RAAF fighter ace with 10,000hrs in hornets considered an absolute top gun, and second most junior is a 21 year old cadet with 200 hours, guess who’s getting the chop?

[wheels_down]

So what’s the plan for Oxford and FTA? I assume they will need to sell aircraft/lay-off staff or close down? They can’t just run the current fleet and operational size for the next five years with little to no contracts thrown at them. As General Aviation is not associated with the Union movement they won’t be getting a cent from any Labor Government, so Oxford in Melbourne are probably most at risk.

Rex have taken over the mob at Ballarat so they might live to see another day.

Virgin had some form of deal underway with FTA, now as this involves cost, it’s clearly dead. With the amount of backlog that VA Group has on its redundancy list, they wont have any issues this decade recruiting, however with limited expansions plans into the future, it seem as they won’t need to.

Not sure how much QF is spending on its programs however that tap will most certainly be turned off.

[PoppaJo]

Aero Clubs around the country are quite busy at the moment, my local has put on extra instructors. I was told two things with that, people have more time, government assistance, and people are cashing out their super. A CFI agreed with me they expect that to die off post March with cause for concern for the ‘new normal’ post Government assistance ending.

However, that boom is largely for recreational reasons for many. That 30 year old tropics CPL guy or girl heading up north is on the verge of extinction. 30 years ago in Darwin we had the luxury of sifting through multiple resumes from tropics trained young pilots. These days you would be lucky to find one.

Anyone churning out more than 10-15 CPLs a year are in trouble.

[bringbackthe80s]

Aviation has effectively gone back 30 years, make of it what you wish but in those days (and in mine for that matter) cadets were the exception not the norm.

[Ladloy]

You’re aware a proper cadet program is designed to avoid that? Candidates undergo a selection process, training is structured and monitored and repeated fail attempts at assessments wouldn’t be tolerated? You can’t just pay your way to a job.

I should have specified that is outside of cadetships.

[PoppaJo]

Cadet courses don’t screen for general laziness, listening skills or the ability to stick to company SOPs. The first one is a major gripe of mine, an issue that I see more often of late which then will stem to others in the future when these people get promotions. I have questionable ability in some should the $hit hit the fan in the future when they are in command.

[KRUSTY 34]

And those at the bottom could’ve been employed via any stream, cadet, GA, military. Some of the most senior pilots at airlines are cadets.

A company needs to make the bottom pilot redundant, if that happens to be an ex RAAF fighter ace with 10,000hrs in hornets considered an absolute top gun, and second most junior is a 21 year old cadet with 200 hours, guess who’s getting the chop?

My point exactly Dr.

[Sam Ting Wong]

Beware of the industry terms in a few years. The oversupply might lead to significant lower pay / later promotions.

I know not on your radar right now ( been there), but trust me, t&c are all you are interested in later in your career.

[dr dre]

Cadet courses don’t screen for general laziness, listening skills or the ability to stick to company SOPs. The first one is a major gripe of mine, an issue that I see more often of late which then will stem to others in the future when these people get promotions. I have questionable ability in some should the $hit hit the fan in the future when they are in command.

Yeah whatever mate. The exact same things have been said about cadets for decades now (these programs didn’t just start in the last couple of years). Guess what, almost all became Captains, some training captains too. They’ve done fine.

[SITTINGBULL]

So if Cadetships become they way of the future here In Australia, what does this mean for experienced and well deserving GA drivers come recruitment time? I.e.

Example CV;
Degree
ATPL Theory
500-2000 Multi
100 Night
4000+ TT (If were talking about 5 years no external hiring)

do they get shafted to the curb? Surely there will be a genuine need for actual experience in some RPT cockpit somewhere?

[Telfer86]

from one of the contributors above (& this isn't intended to upset anyone)


"Humankind has always prevailed. This virus is not the worst global event in the last 100 years. We were swinging in the 50’s after WWII. That era proved the zest for prosperity after 5 years of despair. This virus won’t give us 5 years of despair. We have medical science, vaccines only months away from certification, rapid testing on the horizon, etc. Sure, aviation won’t return overnight, but my optimism remains"

The pilots know things about medicine that the medical professors don't know ? Economics professor also

What babbling baby talk

Cadetship now ? with either Rex or QF ?

Taking a big risk doing direct from year 12 with no "plan B" vocation/profession/skill

Surely any vacancies at Qlink for next few years would be filled by those who are stood down from other QF group airlines , returning from lwop
to other QF group airlines or have been made redundant. Probably nudging 5000 in QF group Australia based airlines (717, Network, Qlink , EFA , JQ ,Mainline) & a significant surplus
for at least 4 or 5 years

Maybe QF are planning to get cadets into Qlink regardless of stand down redundancy in other group airlines

Notice all Lufthansa just sent all their cadets home, lots of other airlines have , CX ?

QF program still running is very strange, the boasted about how it was going to be bigger than Texas - then took years & years to get it going , L3 walked
away at some point. Now keeping it going & new intakes when airlines fleet around world all grounded , we are just a little bit off the pace in Aussie

Maybe QF were dumb enough to sign a contract with significant financial penalties for shutting it down, whole thing looked like an example of how to not do
this kind of project. Big talking , bull****ting & boasting as you delayed delivery for years , major contractor walking away , did the Aussie talk feast for years about location
To much big talkies not enough action

[dr dre]

So if Cadetships become they way of the future here In Australia, what does this mean for experienced and well deserving GA drivers come recruitment time? I.e.

Example CV;
Degree
ATPL Theory
500-2000 Multi
100 Night
4000+ TT (If were talking about 5 years no external hiring)

do they get shafted to the curb?

Who is the person behind those numbers? Can they work in a team, or are they single pilot focused? Will
they follow SOPs? Can they communicate well? Do they respond well to constructive criticism and strive to improve themselves? Do they have established decision making processes? Do they bark out orders or lead from example? Would you want to spend hours locked up in a flight deck with them? Do they show hazardous attitudes? Are they argumentative, it’s my way or the highway?

Numbers on a resume only show you a fraction of the person you’re going to recruit. Airlines have switched to personality based recruitment for a reason.

As far as what will the future hold for that person, who knows? It could be positive or negative, all signs point to ab initio pilots marking up a bigger chunk of airline recruitment in the future.

Surely there will be a genuine need for actual experience in some RPT cockpit somewhere?


The one sitting on the LHS? Some airlines are almost all cadet recruitment based, LH springs to mind. I think they can fly planes.

[Lookleft]

The one sitting on the LHS? Some airlines are almost all cadet recruitment based, LH springs to mind. I think they can fly planes.

They also have a subsidiary called Germanwings. I'm not sure if their cadets went through the same program as Lufthansa but if you are looking for an example I wouldn't be using Lufthansa.

Do they respond well to constructive criticism and strive to improve themselves? Do they have established decision making processes? Do they bark out orders or lead from example? Would you want to spend hours locked up in a flight deck with them? Do they show hazardous attitudes? Are they argumentative, it’s my way or the highway?

Just based on my experience, I get a lot more of the negative answers to your questions from the cadet F/O's I fly with than the direct entry pilots. Most of them are very good but even they admit that they didn't know how little they knew when they were first CTL.

[dr dre]

They also have a subsidiary called Germanwings. I'm not sure if their cadets went through the same program as Lufthansa but if you are looking for an example I wouldn't be using Lufthansa.


You might also want to look at the backgrounds of those who committed similar horrible acts in Egyptair, Silkair and Fedex before making such a comment, using those one in a billion terrible incidents as a measure for pilots of certain backgrounds is ridiculous.

[Gazza mate]

The Qf Cadetship looks alive and well. I believe there is another course starting later this year so congratulations to them and good luck!

As for those “experienced drivers” suggesting they are more deserving of a job than less experienced pilots, that’s exactly the entitled attitude that will kill your chances.

[Telfer86]

Your achieve a bubsy babytalk index of 9.5/10 for that response GM

"It's all just so wonderful"

The downsides of QF cadetship atm are

1. QF group has 4500 pilots in Australia - doesn't even need 10% of them
2. 1000 Virgin guys made redundant
3. 2000 more Aust pilots made redundant overseas will return
4. No international atm , domestic at around 5% max
5. You will max out your student loan, ie: will you be able to do business degree if after Cship QF don't take you on , & no GA job
6. Virtually no GA jobs for when you finish
7. Do it if you are prepared to roll the dice & come out with no career & $150k down & atm you would think that would exceed 75% chance

So not so sure why GM (great handle just wants to make you do aussie , oi oi chants) claims it is so wonderful , perhaps he/she can enlighten us

I would have thought the success could only be gauged a few years down the track when grad destinations are figured

The only reason I can see for QF to keep open is financial penalties from flying school /Airport if they shut it down

Why train pilots when you have 1000s of redundant ones

Perhaps QF don't like admitting mistakes (just like 777 - we could never make it work) they dithered about this project since 2015 , likely tried to
get a free ride (L3 walked) & missed the opportunity window. Lot's of cheesy sh55 eating grins from the QF gang in the publicity blurbs

QF (like everyone) do on occasion do some pretty stupid things, would have been an idea to cancel immediately upgrades to A380 when Covid
hit, could have saved hundreds of mill. Noticed the leader in August stated he believes they will fly again , not sure how many would agree

Standing by for more Bubsy babytalk

[Lookleft]

I'm not the one extolling the virtues of cadet programs to the point that they are infallible and produce a much better pilot. I was merely suggesting that if you want to use an example of an airline that is exclusively a cadet based program that supports your point, then LH is not a good one.

Did you want to comment on the second part of my post or offer some anecdotal evidence of your own?

[dr dre]

I'm not the one extolling the virtues of cadet programs to the point that they are infallible and produce a much better pilot.
Did you want to comment on the second part of my post or offer some anecdotal evidence of your own?

Because I’m not extolling the virtues of anything beyond debunking false stereotypes made without real evidence beyond someone’s prejudice.

My anecdotal evidence is as pointless as yours, all I’ll say is I really can’t tell the difference in standards between a pilot from a cadet background vs one from a GA background, with the one exception that cadets are generally a few years younger.

[havoste]

For those that wonder why Qantas hasn't shut down any of their cadet courses in Wellcamp, what cost is Qantas actually bearing to keep them running? The courses are 100% self funded by the student with no contribution by the airline, essentially it is a glorified VET course.
Qantas has zero obligation to hire and churning out hundreds of fresh CPLs over the next few years to further flood the market is surely is a great way to drive down T&Cs.

Though fully sponsored cadetships still training eg. CX is hard to explain.

[logansi]

I'll place a small bet.

Over the next few years, Chinese Cadets will make almost 50% of aviation training in Australia, unlike the rest of the world Chinese airlines are still hiring cadets, (domestic aviation is now back at 2019 levels), and with airlines unable to get their cadets into Australia or America their is a growing backlog of cadets. I know of Australian companies with 250+ cadets who are waiting in China already assigned to cadet groups many of whom already hold visas.

[Telfer86]

Havoste think QF always wanted a freebie for the "set-up" Govt State or Fed or Local dollars , they were flea bagging around
look for someone else's cash & a free ride

Getting it going without spending a dime , The buildings facilities would have cost many million , likely well north of 10 million

Looks like those costs were paid by the Airport owner & FTA & it looks like they were smart enough to agree to front the build with
the proviso of penalties if QF had a "Womans Day" six months in & decided they didn't want to do it anymore

That would be why it is still running I would think, when you whore there is a downside

Can see why someone who already has an established vocation/profession might roll the dice , at best one third chance of getting a win

But why a school leaver would do it ? You would be mad , max out student loan , forfeit any chance of getting another skill/career , - go be a nurse or tech in the Navy
, & check out cadetships in 5/6 years.

The reality is that the "Airline Industry" doesn't actually exist anymore , it is something from part days. If it returns & in what form - well that is open to speculation

CX no more sent out to FTA , & some talk that some courses got sent home

[Unstall]

I am a current captain that came through the cadet pathway. A frequent question I am often asked by both cadet first officers and direct entry first officers is “who makes the better pilot”. I think the answer is simple, no one way is necessarily better than the other. As the saying goes “there are a million ways to skin a cat”. It comes down to the discipline of the individual. I’ve flown with great guys and girls from both pathways. I’ve also flown with some that were borderline incompetent. Whilst I believe it to be true that handling errors are more common in first officers with low-time, they tend to be better at adapting to SOPs. It is expected of a new pilot, in the same way that a P plater in a car gains experience, and makes errors. The most dangerous candidates are always those that think they know more than they do. If you were to compare the two after several thousand hrs, any difference you would observe would be a reflection of the individuals personality, demeanour and professionalism.

Moving off from the thread drift. To answer the real question, “will cadetships have their place still?”. Maybe, but it will be a very long way down the track. With such a surplus of pilots stood down, unemployed or waiting for that break from slogging it out in GA, how could any airline justify a Cadetship now? Why would any prospective pilot with half a brain want to risk entering such a career now? From both a business sense, and dare I say it, a moral standpoint, cadetships imho don’t have a place in the immediately foreseeable future. There is a current wealth of experience floating around the industry looking for another chance, and it would be remiss, as an industry, to lose that experience by overlooking it for brand new pilots.

[Jetsbest]

Well said!:D
I joined an Oz-major with plenty of experience over twenty years ago. I admit to reservations about its cadet scheme, but I’ve found my views to be without foundation given the airline’s people, training, standards, & the average time-to-command.
It comes down to the discipline of the individual and I agree.
...but WRT how could any airline justify a Cadetship now?....current cadet schemes are profitable for airlines who continue to offer the disingenuous suggestion of ongoing employment in a XX-group airline if you join (& pay) for their course.:rolleyes:

[gordonfvckingramsay]

....current cadet schemes are profitable for airlines who continue to offer the disingenuous suggestion of ongoing employment in a XX-group airline if you join (& pay) for their course.https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies2/icon_rolleyes.gif

Exactly right! If airlines really wanted cadets schemes to provide a reliable supply of pilots, they would offer cadetships free of charge to suitably chosen candidates, with a bond period attached to the end of their training. “Pay-to-fly” cadetships are just another income stream for airlines who will take your money and offer no guarantee of a job.

As far as the “quality” issues. I’ve flown with people with diverse flying backgrounds, from a 20,000 hr co-pilot who had normalised hazardous attitudes because nothing bad had happened to him yet, to a 200 hr guy who appeared to have ten times that experience and an amazing attitude to match. It’s purely down to the individual and their capacity for humility.

[dr dre]

Exactly right! If airlines really wanted cadets schemes to provide a reliable supply of pilots, they would offer cadetships free of charge to suitably chosen candidates, with a bond period attached to the end of their training. “Pay-to-fly” cadetships are just another income stream for airlines who will take your money and offer no guarantee of a job.


As far as I’m aware the money is payed to the flying school, which in Australia for the most part is not connected to the airline. The airline does spend some amount of HR resources with regards to selection, monitoring and overall assessment of the cadet’s performance.

[Telfer86]

Set up costs would have been likely over $25 million , so QF locked in by Airport owner /flying school to keep going

That was the price they paid to not wanting to contribute a brass razxoo for set up, QF like to try this little trick - land the cost of somebody else
- just like the whoring around for HQ location at the moment. Wanting a tax payer free ride from State Govts - how interesting ?

Airline industry , doesn't exist anymore , if it returns , & in what timeline & when that is a variable

So if you enter just understand you are training for an industry that is grounded worldwide

The only way atm you would enter employment with QF after graduation (when 90% of their pilots are stood down/lwop) is if QF decide
to make a non-commercial bloody minded decision. ie: " we will employ the cadets immediately on what little flying we have , when 1000s of our pilots not working"

Will they do this ??. Well they do make some big decisions that logic & reason doesn't explain ie: not buying 777s, buying two "expirimental"(new, unproven) AC at same time 787& A380
- both delayed for years & backfired spectacularly. Continuing to spend on A380 upgrades once Covid hit - on AC that will never fly. All madman decisions that cost billions (ie: how much more
money you would have earned if 777 purchased)

Just understand the following things , you are investing $150K & circa two years on an industry/career that

1. Doesn't exist right now
2. Your employer is grounded right now & thousands of pilots in Australia unemployed , 100s of thousands around the world

So if people try to tell you 1989, 2001 , 2010 are "similar" they would not be correct

Ignore the babytalk from people claiming to be "Airline Captains" about cadet/re; direct entry. Its been done since end of ww2 in EU so
obviously works fine. These characters would be best off trying to get alternative employment / retrain in another skill - most won't be flying for years if ever.
& almost all are discovering that the "skills & abilities" as airline pilots are worth nothing in the outside world , & their prospects to earn six figure incomes are
nil unless you want to do "labouring" type mining FIFO work working 70 + hour weeks in the Pilbara. The flash houses & cars are being put up for sale

Corporates are not screaming out for stood down or redundant Australian airline pilots, & most are doing menial , low paid , unstable casual work. & good on
them for getting out & working - just no point pretending the reality is different from what it is. The exception is the small % who acquired skill/trade/profession before/during
their flying career & got enough ongoing & current experience to keep the skill marketable & useful - unfortunately the vast majority didn't bother. Do you want to end up in
this position in your Life ?

Had hoped that Covid would be a small blip - but that is not the case. QF originally were saying 40% by the end of July - they achieved 4%

Why don't some of the people claiming to be "Airline Captains" share what skills outside flying they have & how they are paying the bills now

I wonder if the QF leadership group will be attending the graduations at Wellcamps , big cheesy grins , kissy kissy & hugs all around pumping up the volume, much dancing & jumping around

Think the same crew from QF who went to the "opening party" will be notable for the absence from facility

Think a more lonely journey out front gate with your $150k debt & journey direct to the Centrelink line & don't think about Uni your
loan account is now maxed out

Don't get sucked in the flash brochures & the bubsy babytalk on here , these guys are all unemployed (or underemployed) right now & face a very uncertain future

Be careful what you wish for

[Lookleft]

As far as I’m aware the money is payed to the flying school, which in Australia for the most part is not connected to the airline. The airline does spend some amount of HR resources with regards to selection, monitoring and overall assessment of the cadet’s performance.
If the endorsement costs for Jetstar pilots is anything to go by there is possibly a "facilitation fee" to cover some of the costs associated with the HR resources.

["Littlebird"]

As long as there are wealthy parents and not so wealthy parents that live their dreams through their children, cadet schemes will live on. Saying that, the Virgin cadet program is dead and will not re-emerge for a long time, if ever. So that leaves Qantas, Jetstar and ReX as potential providers in Australia.
Virgin recently made 800 pilots redundant (all 777, 330, ATR, NZ 737 and Tigerair 737 and 320 pilots). In addition, there are hundreds of pilots redundant and returning to Australia from China, Japan, Vietnam, Hong Kong and the Middle East. I would guess there would be at least 2000 unemployed experienced pilots in Oz right now.
Even during the good times with recruitment in full swing, there are barely 100 jobs available every 12 months in Australia. Do the math!
Also, Virgin have committed to re-employ from the redundant pilots until the year 2028. Therefore, there will be hardly any jobs for externals available at Virgin for the next 7 years.
To any newly qualified pilot or person contemplating being a pilot, I would offer the same advice that I received from my instructors over 25 years ago. Try and join the defence force as a pilot, and if no joy, pick a career that will make you enough money to fly as a hobby.

[Lookleft]

As far as what will the future hold for that person, who knows? It could be positive or negative, all signs point to ab initio pilots marking up a bigger chunk of airline recruitment in the future.

Well it looks like LH have decided that the future of their cadet pilots is not very bright at all:

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/no-new-pilots-needed-for-very-long-time-lufthansa-training-arm/140484.article

[KRUSTY 34]

Yup, and here’s the rub.

No real prospect of any return on investment for 5, perhaps 10 years!

Candidate or Airline.

[Keg]

The demise of cadet programs has been predicted in Australia for decades and yet they keep rejuvenating- albeit in slightly different forms given that these days they’re mostly self funded.

The reason for them re-occurring is that they fill a need. Sure, the ‘need’ fluctuates depending on underlying economic conditions (both global and local). At the moment that need is precisely zero.

Certainly the airline has a lot more control over the final product using cadets and generally the desire for cadet courses invariably occurs when the pilot supply is getting a bit tight and forcing airlines to look at candidates that previously would have been deemed ‘not competitive’. Given the lag of getting the courses set up and running it’s no surprise that invariably the initial graduates tend to be graduating just as the industry goes into a downward trend.

Are there better ways of doing it or producing a better pilot? Perhaps though pass/fail rates at airlines would likely indicate that for command at least there is no discernible difference between cadets and non cadets and so the ‘better pilot’ is likely only in the formative years within an airline environment.

[neville_nobody]

The reason for them re-occurring is that they fill a need. Sure, the ‘need’ fluctuates depending on underlying economic conditions (both global and local). At the moment that need is precisely zero.

I would probably dispute that assertion. There has never been a real "need" in Australia for Cadet programs ever. There has always been a good supply of qualified pilots so much so that we export pilots to the world. In more recent iterations the cadet programs are more about controlling your workforce and interfering in the labour market to keep downward pressure on salaries especially for Regional Airlines. What airlines do not want is people consistently jumping around gaining experience and resigning. Regional Airlines feel this the most as they don't pay enough to keep their staff long term so had to create roadblocks to prevent people resigning.

There could have been an argument that Cadets would be needed into the future as flying training was becoming a significant financial risk however Covid has fixed that problem for the next 10 years.

[dr dre]

There has never been a real "need" in Australia for Cadet programs ever. There has always been a good supply of qualified pilots

Legally qualified is one thing, having the personal attributes to perform the role that an employer seeks of them is another.

[wheels_down]

Legally qualified is one thing, having the personal attributes to perform the role that an employer seeks of them is another.
Is there not ample bodies around the Regional Twin network capable? Sure you might clean out some operators but I don’t think they care. I mean Jetstar has had its fair share of wiping out the Rex ranks over the years.

Anyone flying a Kingair or above should be the succession material.

Long Haul it’s clearly just a way to eliminate a second FO. Which is what one long haul loco here used to do.

[dr dre]

Is there not ample bodies around the Regional Twin network capable? Sure you might clean out some operators but I don’t think they care. I mean Jetstar has had its fair share of wiping out the Rex ranks over the years.

Anyone flying a Kingair or above should be the succession material.


A large number of those in the regional twin networks around the country are cadets themselves. Even they are attacked for not having enough single pilot time before joining that regional and "stealing" a job a GA charter pilot or instructor was "entitled" to.

Any idea of a standard pilot career path a pilot should take in GA before joining an airline was thrown out years ago.

[Keg]

Is there not ample bodies around the Regional Twin network capable?

History has demonstrated that at times this has not been the case. 1988/89 prior to the dispute the shortage was starting to bite in terms of the quality of suitable applicants which is why QF set up their Cadetship then. I recall that in about ‘08 or thereabouts JQ changed their selection criteria as they too started to run short of candidates that exceeded the standard.

[Telfer86]

Why would people train for an industry that currently doesn't exist & is going to have to resized , restructured in a massive way

Virgin laid off 1000 pilots , they get priority for re-employment until 2028, 40% paycut for those who remain
QF Group likely have around 4500 pilots , they only need 10% of those atm & priority for next decade will be shuffling the excess around the group ,
At least 2000 Australian pilots returning from jobs overseas & in many cases their jobs OS are permanently gone
There are 4000 plus pilots in Australia who are currently "stood down" & facing possible redundancy
100s made redundant from Air NZ , Aussie airlines have always liked Kiwi pilots
Every year 150 or so ADF pilots are eligible to leave , you will have to compete against them
Shut down or cadetships by almost all the worlds Airlines (aside from China, as locals replacing expat)
Flying schools in Australia face very uncertain future, so way way less instructor jobs

Have a look at the thread on SEA (Singapore flying schools) it is more sensible - this forum is all rose coloured glasses dogma

Don't get sucked in the "best time to train" nonsense, there are thousands of unemployed pilots in Australia now & unfortunately
that will remain the case for years. Difficult to think of a more useless qualification than a CPL/IR right now

The QF/Aviation Uni partnership was much over hyped, how many did actually get hired direct from Aviation Uni during the 4 year
pre-covid boom ? - relatively token number. Relatively recently CQU were "talking up" their new partnership with Qlink - for goodness sake
Qlink is largely grounded - quite incredible to be doing press releases at this time.

You expect private institutions to be full of misleading BS with their marketing, surprising how low the Uni's will stoop to make a buck

Think quite unethical for Aviation Unis to be "talking up their book" when the industry has collapsed & it is obvious
that it will emerge much smaller , years down the track. They have one motivation & one motivation only - achieving full enrolments & maximising
funding from Govt

10 months into Corona & the scorecard for Aussie airlines is domestic 5% ; international 0%.

I knew this was bad but I wasn't expecting or guess at this level of disaster

Not the time to be looking at cadetships , set up your plan B qualification/skill & look at it in a couple of years

This is not 1988 or 2008, the world aviation industry is grounded, there are 1000s of unemployed pilots in Australia now & the world is in
for a monster recession unfortunately

[KRUSTY 34]

Why would people train for an industry that currently doesn't exist & is going to have to resized , restructured in a massive way

Virgin laid off 1000 pilots , they get priority for re-employment until 2028, 40% paycut for those who remain
QF Group likely have around 4500 pilots , they only need 10% of those atm & priority for next decade will be shuffling the excess around the group ,
At least 2000 Australian pilots returning from jobs overseas & in many cases their jobs OS are permanently gone
There are 4000 plus pilots in Australia who are currently "stood down" & facing possible redundancy
100s made redundant from Air NZ , Aussie airlines have always liked Kiwi pilots
Every year 150 or so ADF pilots are eligible to leave , you will have to compete against them
Shut down or cadetships by almost all the worlds Airlines (aside from China, as locals replacing expat)
Flying schools in Australia face very uncertain future, so way way less instructor jobs

Have a look at the thread on SEA (Singapore flying schools) it is more sensible - this forum is all rose coloured glasses dogma

Don't get sucked in the "best time to train" nonsense, there are thousands of unemployed pilots in Australia now & unfortunately
that will remain the case for years. Difficult to think of a more useless qualification than a CPL/IR right now

The QF/Aviation Uni partnership was much over hyped, how many did actually get hired direct from Aviation Uni during the 4 year
pre-covid boom ? - relatively token number. Relatively recently CQU were "talking up" their new partnership with Qlink - for goodness sake
Qlink is largely grounded - quite incredible to be doing press releases at this time.

You expect private institutions to be full of misleading BS with their marketing, surprising how low the Uni's will stoop to make a buck

Think quite unethical for Aviation Unis to be "talking up their book" when the industry has collapsed & it is obvious
that it will emerge much smaller , years down the track. They have one motivation & one motivation only - achieving full enrolments & maximising
funding from Govt

10 months into Corona & the scorecard for Aussie airlines is domestic 5% ; international 0%.

I knew this was bad but I wasn't expecting or guess at this level of disaster

Not the time to be looking at cadetships , set up your plan B qualification/skill & look at it in a couple of years

This is not 1988 or 2008, the world aviation industry is grounded, there are 1000s of unemployed pilots in Australia now & the world is in
for a monster recession unfortunately

Pretty much covered all the bases there Telfer’

[Telfer86]

The one exception might be Cobham or Rex cadetship as strong articulation to employment outcome (in past at least)

Trades Vs Degree is never ending debate, one thing people can forget is that at end of trade you have "experience" whereas
Degree you have just done the academics

You would hope the large flying schools are able to successfully lobby to get foreign students in obviously China

[LG7838]

Cebu Pacific also has a Cadet Pilot "Fly Now, Pay Later" Program with FTA. I wonder if these cadets were sent home.

[wheels_down]

CPL graduation is fairly useless in the next three years as you have all the low hour GA drivers laid off ahead of you regardless of how well you claim you are.

2023 onwards seems to be a safer bet. 23/24 you then ride out of the rest of the decade in GA.

Those joining the CPL club mid this decade won’t have any issues later on considering the mass retirements forecasted next decade and the exodus to Emirates et all which will commence at some point in the future again.

I would be holding off if anyone is considering however make sure you revisit in the future if you want to be apart of what I think it’s going to be the years of jobs plenty, the 2030s.

[Telfer86]

The real problem in getting international going is going to be trust & confidence & combine that with language cultural difference
, whether via "safe bubbles" or people claiming to have been vaccinated. Aside from dealing with NZ

It's just going to make it incredibly complicated - hope I'm wrong

I certainly have zero faith in the Vict Govts ability to quarantine international arrivals (happening next month) & really hope Fed Govt don't allow to occur
Vict Govt continues to make arrogant comments & boast about how they lead Aussie in contract tracing & the leader states he is needed to do the recovery
Stated today he "will not" follow NSW isolation model (which is more rigorous). Do not open your borders to Vic , it is a true mad house here (been living in Melb a few years now) the Socialist Left Govt here will drag down rest of country even further

That's why CPL/IR right now for Aust/NZ is a very bad idea, absolutely no way to predict. I would have thought getting 50% of international back in five years
from this point in time would be a great result - it might take twice as long.

All the advice on US focused forums the same to go to Aviation Uni (Embry Riddle , Purdue etc) do aviation degree plus licences would just be crazy

[Keg]

For context QF has just under 2300 pilots. 600 of them were due to retire in the next decade and of those, 250 are likely gone by the end of November 2020. If we hit ‘pre COVID’ levels within 3 years (even money is my guess) that will create a demand for at least those 250 pilots plus whoever else is needed depending on A350 crewing requirements.

[Telfer86]

Rosy coloured glasses dogma

1. A350 is coming
2. International back to normal in three years
3. Heaps and heaps of pilots needed
4. Futures so bright you gotta wear shades
5. Do the QF cadetship its all good as gold

Just keep saying it all again and again and again - it makes it so so much more persuasive and believable

The retirements metrics have changed , these guys are down a lot of coin & significantly more will try to transfer back to SH & stay for as long as possible after 65

[KRUSTY 34]

For context QF has just under 2300 pilots. 600 of them were due to retire in the next decade and of those, 250 are likely gone by the end of November 2020. If we hit ‘pre COVID’ levels within 3 years (even money is my guess) that will create a demand for at least those 250 pilots plus whoever else is needed depending on A350 crewing requirements.

Love your confidence Keg.

For the sake of all my friends in QF and the profession in general, I hope you’re right?

[Telfer86]

Trying to convince young people cadetships are just oh so wonderful & the future is just so promising

Quite likely it will end up with disastrous results for young people direct out of school, large debt no prospect of QF work or GA work & $150k debt

Great form what a chap, bravo

Unusual interest in QF retirement numbers & most willing to suggest a good time for the older cohort to go, interesting

[dr dre]

The retirements metrics have changed , these guys are down a lot of coin & significantly more will try to transfer back to SH & stay for as long as possible after 65

The bulk of the 60-65 cohort will be leaving soon so not too many reaching 65 over the next few years. SH training isn’t exactly a walk in the park, and the job is a lot different. Most don’t stay for more than a few years.

As far as super goes the market is now at April 2019 levels so balances are well on the way to recovering, and a lot of defined benefit super is only dependant on the best 3 years in the last 10, of which there won’t be any better than the last 3 for a while.

A lot of signs on the domestic front are showing quite a quick bounce back to 2019 levels, and international would be similar. Someone up high has seen a reason to start multiple Academy courses into the first half of next year that won’t have the cadets graduating until well into 2022. Quite possibly long term forecasts are seeing a need for them

[Keg]

I don’t see Telfer’s comments except when others quote them.

Some may try and stay but there needs to be an available slot for them to stay for. Currently there are zero and unlikely to be any at any stage prior to this time next year. There is no hope in Hades that FWA would rule that Qantas must create a vacancy on a fleet where 70+% of crew are stood down in order to allow someone 65 to continue.

Someone in the 63-65 bracket also needs to consider the early retirement offer in front of them and if aged between 63 and 64.5 what a difference that (tax free) sum is going to make to their bottom line compared to hanging on for a couple of years until they’re able to start and then doing a conversion course.

[Derfred]

Telfer, how many years’ LWOP did you take?

I’m just hoping you have put your money where your mouth is, and have taken at least 5-10 years.

I should be retired by then, so hopefully I won’t ever have to share a cockpit with you.

[Lookleft]

A lot of signs on the domestic front are showing quite a quick bounce back to 2019 levels, and international would be similar.

A lot of assumptions with that statement. The WA government has stated that it wont be opening its borders until June 2021 and while C19 is in the community at such low levels, by world standards, Qld,Tas and SA are going to open and shut their borders on a regular basis. The domestic market will remain patchy at best so any forecast of a quick bounce back is premature.

Someone up high has seen a reason to start multiple Academy courses into the first half of next year that won’t have the cadets graduating until well into 2022. Quite possibly long term forecasts are seeing a need for them

You could be right but never underestimate the inability of the left hand not talking to the right hand. I remember Jetstar cancelling the cadet courses in anticipation of reduced growth then recruiting direct entry for two years because their were no cadets. Then they restarted the cadet course and I think a lot of the first course were graduating at the end of 2018. So just because someone up the food chain has decreed that courses will start next year doesn't mean they have any inside knowledge of the future of aviation post covid. What is the caveat at the end of the industry super ads; past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

[krismiler]

Any flying school churning out batches of 20-30 new CPL holders will likely go under, given the outlook for the next few years. This may lead to problems towards the end of this decade if the jobs start appearing but the training capacity is lacking. It may seem to some people that now is a good time to train but with years of guaranteed no job ahead a new licence holder will have forgotten most of what he learnt and require extensive retraining when the market picks up. Any employer will want a fresh graduate over one that got his licence 5+ years ago and isn't current or up to speed on the latest equipment, regulations and procedures.

Flying clubs with a sideline in CPL training should survive but may need to wind down a bit.

At the moment I wouldn't even think of getting a CPL and would be looking at other career options for the next few years. However if flying was my dream job I would aim to save as much money as possible and keep a careful eye on the situation for when the upturn begins. Possibly get a PPL and do just enough to stay current whilst studying for the ATPL exams at leisure. Once you're sure the investment won't be wasted then complete the training, this should put you ahead of someone starting from scratch and give you nice fresh instrument and multi engine ratings to go door knocking with.

Just for reference, my employer laid off 25% of flight crew in estimation of what would be the required number in 3 years time. Once recruitment begins again, all the retrenched pilots have priority for employment. After those that want to return are taken on, there will still be many rated and experienced pilots on the job market to choose from.

[KRUSTY 34]

Exactly!

Retrenched Pilots from virtually all the operators will be entitled to retain their relative seniority for 5 years (nominal). Even allowing for retirements, hundreds if not close to a thousand will begin to resign from what they have been doing to survive, and head back to the cockpit. I know I would. Every newly minted CPL and graduated Cadet that have not been inducted prior will have to wait until the last of these pilots have been offered re employment, just to be considered!

IMHO, 5-10 years?

[neville_nobody]

Retrenched Pilots from virtually all the operators will be entitled to retain their relative seniority for 5 years (nominal). Even allowing for retirements, hundreds if not close to a thousand will begin to resign from what they have been doing to survive, and head back to the cockpit. I know I would. Every newly minted CPL and graduated Cadet that have not been inducted prior will have to wait until the last of these pilots have been offered re employment, just to be considered!
IMHO, 5-10 years?

The other real consideration in all this is the way the Labor Governed States are behaving. There is no real appetite to actually enable freedom of movement within Australia from the Labor Premiers. What was once a speculative question could become very real and that is how long QF and VA could actually hang on for if the borders remain closed well through 2021. It could be game over for both of them and the entire travel industry.

Originally I would have expected to be back to normal domestically by Christmas but it is looking pretty unlikely unless the Federal Government steps in.

[krismiler]

Realistically, a laid off pilot with a seniority number and a promise is looking at 3 - 4 years out of the flight deck, depending on

1. The strength of the recovery.
2. How close to required numbers his airline will be at, did they overshoot or undershoot with the layoffs.
3. His position on the return list.
4. The airlines ability to train, check and return people to service.

A suitable pilot with experience and a decent type rating, without a queue number or bottom of the list could easily be looking at 4 - 5 years.
New licence holders easily 5+ years.
A tiny minority were lucky and got previous jobs back, such as the RFDS, or went to REX for the B737 but most have ended up with jobs well below their qualifications and ability.

The result of COVID could be a significant shortage of pilots at particular career points in the decades ahead as a gap of years when little to no training was undertaken moves through the system. First there's few suitable applicants for F/O jobs and few training schools, then there are few F/Os with the required experience to upgrade then there are few experienced captains. A future pilot in primary school today could be looking at a wide body command with QF on the East Coast in under 10 years.

[KRUSTY 34]

Some interesting observations Krismiler. While I’m certainly not saying you are wrong, predicting just what hiring requirements will exist in a decade, really is crystal ball stuff.

On the subject of what the future of Cadetships in Oz will look like? I can sum it up in one word.

REDUNDANT!

[Slezy9]

The other real consideration in all this is the way the Labor Governed States are behaving. There is no real appetite to actually enable freedom of movement within Australia from the Labor Premiers. What was once a speculative question could become very real and that is how long QF and VA could actually hang on for if the borders remain closed well through 2021. It could be game over for both of them and the entire travel industry.

Originally I would have expected to be back to normal domestically by Christmas but it is looking pretty unlikely unless the Federal Government steps in.


What do you mean by “the way Labor Governed States are behaving”?

last time I checked NSW, SA and TAS were all Liberal Governed states and they all have border restrictions in place? Or does that not suit your narrative?

[compressor stall]

You took the words out of my mouth re political parties of the locked states. Left / right don’t enter into it. It’s bleeding state populism.

As for green shoots of recovery... I queried ML TWR at 0800L this week about any preceding aircraft getting visual in the low cloud as we started the ILS. “We haven’t had an arrival for over and hour” was the reply. A weekday morning on what was one of the busiest air routes in the world.

Around the country, Perth is the busiest yes - but with intrastate stuff.

[Mach E Avelli]

A future pilot in primary school today could be looking at a wide body command with QF on the East Coast in under 10 years.

Any kid in primary school today dreaming of becoming a pilot will have a choice of becoming an astronaut or a drone pilot, or perhaps a pilot with the RFDS. 25 to 30 years from now widebody commands in the conventional sense will be on the point of extinction.

[Keg]

What do you mean by “the way Labor Governed States are behaving”?

last time I checked NSW, SA and TAS were all Liberal Governed states and they all have border restrictions in place? Or does that not suit your narrative?

SA now open to everyone except Vic.
Tassie open from October 26 to everyone except Victoria. Hedging their bets a little on NSW but ‘expect’ to open to them too. No one mentions them too much because they don’t have too much impact on the national economy.
NSW open to everyone except Vic. I suspect that will likely change in a month if Victoria gets its act together.

QLD closed to Vic and NSW. There were two cases in NSW yesterday in a city of 6 million people. My uncle on a farm in regional NSW can’t visit QLD to see his grand kids. Stupidity.
WA still closed to everybody?

[dr dre]

I think there’s already a few threads on this forum arguing about borders and politics.......

Having said that there’s a also been quite a few threads over the years arguing about cadetships, and what’s been written on this one isn’t really any different

[Green.Dot]

I suspect that will likely change in a month if Victoria gets its act together.

That is a big “IF” when you have a lying clown in charge of the whole rock show.

[Keg]

No dispute there. Perhaps I should have said ‘get their act together despite their Premier’.

[Street garbage]

Telfer, how many years’ LWOP did you take?

I’m just hoping you have put your money where your mouth is, and have taken at least 5-10 years.

I should be retired by then, so hopefully I won’t ever have to share a cockpit with you.

Mate, the troll is not even a pilot, he just comes on here to try and inflict his misery on others.

[globex6000]

Why are cadet programs still running? Simple. They are VET funded money makers that have very little to do with the actual airline. FTA is a for profit school that, like every other VET fee provider offers a taxpayer funded product at an inflated price. (how much does a CPL cost? Whatever the VET limit happens to be that year) The more students they pump through every year, the higher the profit. Whether they get a job at the end isn't their business. No different to Soar or Basair.

They may have an 'affiliation' with qantas but at the end of the day qantas isn't the one providing the training, the students don't have a contract with Qantas, the instructors aren't from Qantas, and at the end of if they simply get the right to apply for a job. That is all.... the same job their own instructor is probably applying for!

[wheels_down]

So do they sign a contract? Or can they just walk away at any time without paying another cent?

To those who have just signed the dotted line or are about to? Perhaps get some legal advice. I cannnot reiterate the importance, there is no jobs with Qantas at the other end. Zero. You also have bush or tropics GA pilots ahead of you for jobs for the next five years.

FTA and Oxford are essentially non viable businesses at the moment.

["Littlebird"]

The cadet pilot is not extinct as long as the crook cadet pilot institutions remain and take advantage of the vulnerable. Is it worth signing up as a cadet? I would say yes if you have a contract in black and white confirming guaranteed employment, and we know that's unlikely to happen for a very very long time, bar a few jobs here and there for the special or privileged.
L.B

[globex6000]

So do they sign a contract? Or can they just walk away at any time without paying another cent?

To those who have just signed the dotted line or are about to? Perhaps get some legal advice. I cannnot reiterate the importance, there is no jobs with Qantas at the other end. Zero. You also have bush or tropics GA pilots ahead of you for jobs for the next five years.

FTA and Oxford are essentially non viable businesses at the moment.

The FAQ section on the Qantas recruitment page (not FTA's) provides a bit more of a reality check, making it abundantly clear you sign a contract with FTA, not Qantas. That after completion you go into a talent pool, and points out that 500 hours multi is a typical requirement for a regional airline. That the cadetship is NOT a 'Qantas Group Cadetship' and that it is not a part of their Future Pilot program that they have with some Uni programs (which has been ended due to Covid anyway)

Some of my favorites:4. If I successfully graduate from the Academy will I be guaranteed a job at Qantas?No. However, after graduation, students will automatically join the Qantas Group’s talent pool, have access to our General Aviation partners and be part of the Academy Alumni Program, all of which combined, will help to fast track your place in the recruitment process.

Different airlines have different entry requirements and it’s best to contact prospective employers to seek advice on this matter. It is common for regional airlines to require a minimum of 500 multi-engine command hours for employment. Major airlines usually require 500 multi-engine command hours, 1500 hours total flying time and an ATPL for direct entry.5. Is the Academy the same thing as the Qantas Group Future Pilot Program?No. The Qantas Future Pilot Program provides Aviation students the opportunity to be mentored by experienced Qantas Group pilots during their university degree and if successful through the selection process, will transition to a job in the Qantas Group after graduation. Students from the Academy may be selected as participants in the Qantas Group Future Pilot Program based on various eligibility criteria including course performance.7. Are the courses run at the Academy a Qantas Group cadet program?No, there are no funded cadetships available with Qantas Group airlines. However, after graduation, students will automatically join the Qantas Group’s talent pool, have access to our General Aviation partners and be part of the Academy Alumni Program, all of which will help to fast track your place in the recruitment process.

[Cscouller]

Hi all,

I have a spot with Basair on a course starting Jan 2021 and have also received an email for an interview with Qantas for feb (Course begins in April). Is it worth going for Qantas, knowing there is no job on the other side and the fact it's very difficult to get into? To be honest, there seems to be next to no advantage with Qantas. Is it worth just starting with Basair and be 3 months ahead?

C.S

[SixDemonBag]

Hi all,

I have a spot with Basair on a course starting Jan 2021 and have also received an email for an interview with Qantas for feb (Course begins in April). Is it worth going for Qantas, knowing there is no job on the other side and the fact it's very difficult to get into? To be honest, there seems to be next to no advantage with Qantas. Is it worth just starting with Basair and be 3 months ahead?

C.S

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/375x217/44703369_a0bd_4242_9d7d_d2f073db7ace_b86a1481c4fd5ba06c91158 48a4b9327e9593fb1.gif

[Derfred]

All I can suggest about your dilemma is that if there are no QF Group jobs on graduation from the Qantas course (very likely to be the case), then you will be looking for a GA job just like you would be on graduation from the other course.

However, when the time comes that QF Group start hiring, someone in HR will fish around in their bottom drawer and find a list of names, and you will be a known quantity to them, so (assuming your reputation is good) you will probably be hired sooner than otherwise.

Will having the QF course in your logbook be a detriment to your employment prospects with other operators? Who knows. Probably not a detriment to a GA job, but could be a detriment to a later turboprop job if the employer wants to keep you and is worried about QF phoning you 6 weeks/months after employment.

Pros and cons, and no one can predict the future in aviation. If I had the choice and airline flying was my goal, I’d choose the QF course, but you may get different opinions from others.

3-6 month wait isn’t going to make much difference to your career because we are in a slump. If we were at the beginning of a wave then that 3-6 months can make a big difference.

[wheels_down]

I can’t see much on the horizon for at least 6/7 years cadet wise.

I can’t imagine the Jetstar guys being overly impressed, who are on reduced terms and hours for the next 2 years (well from what I gather), with having a batch of cadets roll on in.

Every single pilot laid off within the group should get precedence for any position within the company vs a 21yr old just walking on in. Just feels wrong.

Perhaps the young of this world need to pull
their finger out and go down the GA path. You will become a better pilot.

[Asturias56]

"Every single pilot laid off within the group should get precedence for any position within the company vs a 21yr old just walking on in. Just feels wrong."

I understand the reasons and have a lot of sympathy but you do need to keep bringing in younger people - even at low rates - otherwise in 20-40 years you're faced with disaster with all sorts of unfillable gaps.

If no one is hired out young word spreads very fast and kids just go elsewhere - then you have no demand for training and then.... a n aging industry having to overpay for people at the bottom. Pleanty of examples from other boom & bust industries like energy, mining etc etc

[krismiler]

Sorry to rain on your parade, but I can't see the need for an airline to look at cadets for at least 5 years. Most airlines are laying off at the moment and are still overstaffed in anticipation of the recovery. Once recruitment commences again, staff who have been laid off will be first in the queue followed by those from other companies with considerable airline experience. Plenty of Australian pilots have been laid off overseas and are back home driving busses and combine harvesters. With the new contract, Cathay Pacific pilots would be better off flying a turboprop in their own country and would come back at the drop of a hat if they had the chance.

Even if you do get in, career progression can move at a glacial pace. A pilot from my previous company joined QF in 2008 as a S/O on the B744 and remained in that position until he was recently stood down and joined Pilots4Harvest2020 on Facebook, looking for work in the agricultural sector. His future aviation prospects aren't brilliant with second officer time on an obsolete type. In many other airlines, he would have already have a narrowbody command or at least be a senior widebody F/O close to upgrade. In a low cost he would probably have 6 - 7 years in the left seat already.

I would save my money until things improve and there's a realistic prospect of getting a job when you get your licence.

[almostthere!]

That SO had the opportunity to upgrade to a window seat but didn't for whatever reason.

[Jetdream]

Can’t think of any turboprop jobs in Aus paying anywhere near even the new (Severely reduced) CX contract, but I get what you are saying. When things pick up again many from CX will be looking to return home.

[krismiler]

Trying to raise a family in HKG on the new CX contract vs a decent turbine job in Australia, taking everything into account such as housing, medical, cost of living, lifestyle etc and it could be a close decision.

Bailing out of CX for QF at the first opportunity has been SOP for Australian S/Os for a long time, and with reduced terms and conditions likely to be the norm in the expat world for the foreseeable future, many pilots could decide that it’s not worth going back overseas and start lining up for the right hand seat at Virgin or J*.

Cadets would have a hard time competing against applications with thousands of hours airline flying.

[Jimsaviation]

They can apply to VA after April 2028.

[neville_nobody]

I understand the reasons and have a lot of sympathy but you do need to keep bringing in younger people - even at low rates - otherwise in 20-40 years you're faced with disaster with all sorts of unfillable gaps.


Noone in managememt thinks in those timeframes. They barely see more than 2 years into the future let alone 20+ It will just drift along until suddenly there is yet another crisis.

[Dashtrash]

If I can broaden the horizons for a moment. Airlines around the world that have fired significant numbers(EK) or all(KA) their pilots could be placing themselves at a disadvantage. QF has stood down so in theory, would be quicker to start up operations. Should there be a workable vaccince, borders re-open etc (fingers crossed/wishful thinking) could some airlines find themselves suddenly under-crewed? Airlines that rely on expats could struggle to employ or re-employ pilots that have been forced to move back to their home country. Many of those in a year or so, may look at the numbers and decide that they can retire, others have secured jobs elsewhere and others may step away from aviation altogether.
Could there be a rush on experienced crews in the next 12-24 months? The need to employ en-mass in all seats leading to a new outlook on seniority? Have some airlines painted themselves into a corner by their efforts to stay in business?
What do you think? Could it happen? Sensible discussion?

How this impacts the lowest levels is anyones guess. I certainly wouldn't advocate committing to a massive financial burdon at this point. Beware of taking advice from turkeys at Christmas time. Get another qualification, get some cash behind you and even if my possible scenarios came true, the industry would still take a few years to normalise for the cadet level entry.
Apologies if I'm waffling but it's late here.

[dontgive2FACs]

I tend to think that the big-hub carriers (Gulf + Singapore and Hong Kong) might have their business model changed by the way in which people chose to travel for the next 5 years.

Possibly many of the expats who have retired home after losing their jobs, might be shy of venturing abroad again.

Could see a large surplus of experienced pilots in Australia and NZ.

One reason cadet programmes are dead for a significant time to come.

I definitely feel for those that had already started on the journey. Terrible luck.

[KRUSTY 34]

At the end of the day the cadet programs are here to stay. It’s all well and good to say that there are sudokus pilots in oz, expats home etc, but if the airlines want cadets, that’s what they’ll get. Remember recruitment is driven by some 20 something HR moron. If the flavour of the day is recruiting compliant pilots that they can mold into shape from day 1, then that’s what they’ll do. Being an expat, a redundant pilot or anything else is a guarantee of precisely zero.

Good in theory.

I know of one group of cadets, who on graduation joined the union as their first act as employees. The molded, compliant (as in gladly taking the pineapple) former cadet is simply a Management/HR wet dream.

[Ladloy]

Good in theory.

I know of one group of cadets, who on graduation joined the union as their first act as employees. The molded, compliant (as in gladly taking the pineapple) former cadet is simply a Management/HR wet dream.
Can confirm this is true for almost every cadet course. ​​​​​​​

[wheels_down]

Noone in managememt thinks in those timeframes. They barely see more than 2 years into the future let alone 20+ It will just drift along until suddenly there is yet another crisis.
The generation changeover will arrive around 2040 and no executive or Chief pilot will be in the same job so nobody cares.

Those in the 20s now starting out will probably have pretty good careers in the back half of it.

[FightDeck]

COVID has exposed why an Airline Pilot is a terrible career option. Have to say it has the worst prospects now and into the future. Too niche and not a portable job either. Regardless of experience or seniority you can be stood down in an instant Unpaid, and in some cases like Virgin be made redundant not in seniority order.Pilots can also lose their licence medically at any stage.
Anyone crazy enough to want to do this job now with rapidly deteriorating pay, conditions and work/life balance needs to make certain they have another qualification and income stream available. .
My Advice would be do something else with better prospects, portability, better outcomes for family and health, and fly privately for fun if you like it that much.

[knobbycobby]

Agree.
COVID is a nail in the coffin for aspiring pilots and the job. If you were young enough you’d be mad not to get out and get a decent career with stability somewhere else.
Do something else. Pilots can be redundant or furloughed at the drop of the hat with no where to go.
In any other job or industry you can simply move to many other companies or roles. It’s Not an option in aviation.
Cadet programs and training in general will die off for a long time. Just is common sense unfortunately.