Worldwide Redundant Pilots-Smile Please

[Lucifer786]

Dear colleagues,
I am well aware that this topic may have been extensively discussed, albeit in hushed whispers or individually in open forums on social media platforms.
Firmly of the belief that in numbers there is strength and in discussion there is knowledge and solace, I am specifically attempting to relieve some of the pain of seperations or redundancy that most professional pilots across the board of seniority today are having to endure.
This thread is started SPECIFICALLY for those very pilots to openly discuss anything and everything with their professional colleagues across borders and nationalities with regards to coping with redundancies, future job prospects, airlines hiring worldwide and other vocational options for a super highly skilled professional such as a 25K hour airline pilot or a 250 hour abinito rookie.
Please feel free to discuss your present condition, future employment prospects or other vocationally linked topics shamelessly or with due etiquette. Keeping in mind the company you’re keeping and the decorum of the forum.

As for me, this is my fifth month without having seen the inside of a cockpit after spending three and a half decades doing what I love most ie airline flying. I was very rudely laid off on my days off via a short impersonal email from a legacy carrier that I had been loyal to for many years. Not a smile nor a tear. Simply ‘informed’ of my notice period for termination and asked to contact seperations department after completion of the same. Almost made me feel like I had suddenly developed a highly contagious disease like the very virus that was the root cause of this irony. Made me very suddenly feel like a diseased untouchable!
And now, after almost 5 months of the email, I am almost beginning to believe that I may in fact be what I simply believed earlier … 😪
With at least a decade with of flying still in me, uplifting thoughts of a brighter future always welcome … 🥺

[Flaperon777]

Excellent thread Lucifer. Thanks for the start.
I myself am dealing with a very similar situation. Over fifteen thousand hours as an airline pilot and last gig as 380 TRE in a ME carrier. Was on no pay leave for about 2 months before I was politely made redundant by an email from none other than the CEO.
Licence and medical about to lapse. Am not sure how to get either renewed if I have to leave the country in about a week without a job. And then with my current rating..
Looking at ANYTHING that fits my CV in ANY part of the world. I can see some Far East markets showing a little hope, if that what you can call it. Bought myself a luxury in these times to keep myself sane. A 1100cc Triumph two wheeler cruiser from a friend.
Helps to clear your head when things get claustrophobic.
Any expected openings please feel free to PM me. I shall keep this space updated as things progress. Praying for a vaccine.

[Lucifer786]

I hear Turkish might be looking for skippers sooner rather than later.
When the bull gates open, I have a strong feeling it will be a scramble for who can land the best for the least … hahaha.
Key word being ‘when’ !
🙄

[nickler]

Great thread !

Just like Flaperon777, same position but I actually resigned pre-covid crisis (end of 2019) to relocate back home (UK) and decided to take a few months off before joining the new LCC gig and get ready for a busy busy summer 2020 !
The rest is history.

[Flaperon777]

Thanks Nickler.
May I however enquire as to why did you resign pre covid. Just curious. Did you have some kind of a promonition based on the initial COVID spread end 2019 or was it just to relocate.
And how’s the UK LCC scene today ? Any potential employers ?

[Flaperon777]

I have a feeling that post COVID is gonna see the narrow body boys in the right place at the right time.
Followed very quickly by the fuel efficient new gen big boys ( 787, 350 etc )

[nickler]

Hey Flap,

no, just craving to go back home after 20 years of dunes. Thought I would chill and relax before experiencing european LCC ops... I had my OCC planned in April... obviously that never happened.
Nothing good is happening in the UK, like everywhere else I guess... I keep myself busy playing tennis, at least there is social distancing !

[metro301]

Lucifer, Good post! Same boat for me. 3 decades flying. 1.5 deacdes at the same carrier. 5 months away from flying. Keeping positive, looking at early retirment, maybe I will sit on a sailboat and drink whiskeys on a tight budget.

[PilotLZ]

I feel very sorry for everyone who has lost their job. But I also very much support the idea of having a positive, pep-talk thread. Relentless doom and gloom will not make life any better.

Especially for the redundant A380 and A340 masters - you're actually quite well positioned, so no need to get upset. You can retrain for any other FBW Airbus a lot quicker, easier and cheaper than a non-Airbus candidate. And some of them are very well suited to a post-quad aviation. Think A321neo LR, A330neo, A350... All of them have a good future and all of them will need people to fly them. Especially the ones which used to be senior fleets pre-COVID. This is where many early retirements took place and, the moment their capacity recovers, a replacement will be much needed.

[Xulu]

Will require airlines to not demand recent time on type.

I don’t see much poaching going on between airlines for a while. Most pilots will be thankful to stay in whatever job they have; seeing the benefit of job security.

Therefore most new hires will be way out of recency.

To that end, the best bet is for former employers to take back those they had to let go.

I also think airlines may be surprised of how few come back after a couple years out.
1) Too old.
2) Early retirement
3) New Employer
4) New profession
5) New roots somewhere
6) Change in priorities (family, sleep etc)

I personally would dread working through the night again after having 5 months off flying; They will have to make it worth my while.

Those managers thinking they will snap their fingers and hand out reduced contracts to rejoiners may be in for a shock.

[PilotLZ]

As for the recency problem, at some point it will become so widespread that there will only be a handful of candidates who are out of work AND current/recent. At best, they will have done the annual LPC to keep their type rating, but nothing beyond that. So, a recruiter's options will either be limited to those who have recently lost their jobs or those who are working somewhere and looking for a better gig - or will include the not-so-recent candidates, as long as they have retained sufficient knowledge. This boils down to supply and demand. In times of high demand, I have seen people who have been out of flying for 6-8 years get jobs. Many of those weren't even rated, one was a 200-hour guy who did his fATPL, ditched flying for a career in IT and decided to come back 6 years later.

[Lucifer786]

I’m personally going to run out of currency very soon. Say a couple of months. NOT looking forward neither expecting my previous employer to take me back. Like Nickler very correctly said earlier, had wayy too much of the pit.
What are my options now ? I’m guessing loads of us are gonna be running out of recency. And after the local regulators grace validity extension period runs out, I’m guessing most agencies and airlines are going to have to accept this lack of recency as a norm rather than otherwise and then tweak their recruitment processes and/or their initial training accordingly. I don’t see that as much of an issue so far.
What I’m certain of however is that even a scent of a vaccine or a cure is going to be a real game changer. Especially for aviation !!
Lets say a vaccine is hypothetically out and patented by someone by say 1st September. How long do you think it would be before the normal legacy carriers begin recruitment drives again. Given the current situation. Just hypothetically.
I mean, finding a vaccine is inevitable. People will start to travel again and this time given the added insurance of a known cure/vaccine, their travels are gonna be more frequent and HUNGRY ! That’s going to need high frequencies between cities and obviously more flights and therefore more pilots.
All this, I feel is going to be very sudden and airlines will be left none the wiser and extremely poorly equipped if they keep letting go of their most vital resource. The Pilot.

[PilotLZ]

Depends on some semi-predictable factors like how long vaccination will take, how bound to border reopening it is going to be, how many people will be confident in taking the vaccine right away after it comes out, the recovery of economic branches where potential travellers are employed etc. Many people are willing to travel even now. The desire to explore, meet friends and relatives abroad, go on holidays and so on hasn't gone anywhere. So, I'm also in the more-or-less optimistic lot who don't think that severely reduced traffic will last forever. As a pure speculation, I think that with the current state of affairs we're looking to a somewhat better 2021, an almost-normal 2022 and life as we knew it in 2023. With a lead time for recruitment of 4-6 months and the gradual nature of the process, I would say that mid-to-late 2021 might be the beginning of some more or less significant recruitment. That's not to say that no openings will be available by then. There are some even now, but mostly in business aviation and not quite well-known carriers who only take a handful of people and often through connections and referral.

[Lucifer786]

I more or less agree with your timeline PilotLZ. But for obvious reasons I like to see the glass half full these days.
Hoping that Jan 2021 will bring in the more sensible think ahead recruiters. When dawn is inevitable, the smart sleeper pulls his blinds at night. Pilots are going to be in demand. Say what you want. And the deck has been shuffled now. So the really smart airlines and recruitment agencies really get their pick of pilots that at any other moment in time they couldn’t dream of recruiting.
THAT fact I feel is going to separate the successful airlines of the near future from the bankrupt has beens …
Pure and raw common sense !

[macdo]

Having been laid off and no prospect of another gig in the near future, the single piece of advice I'd give is to get a very tight understanding and control of your finances. We have mostly been used to a fairly or even generous income with little thought on what it is spent on. Pair it to the bone to see what your minimum to exist is, then work up from there.

With regard to recency, I cannot praise the help that UK sim operators have offered unemployed pilots over the last year enough.

[Lucifer786]

All very valid points Xulu.
Would be nice to have airline managers read this thread for its true intrinsic worth.

[RAD_ALT_ALIVE]

This is a cracker of a thread - I hope many PPRuNers share their thoughts on it.

I too chose the wrong time (in hindsight) to move to a job closer to home. After less than 2 months at the new gig, they sent us all on LWOP before terminating us a couple months later. By us, I mean all the expats. It was my dream job, and I was devastated that it turned pear shaped so quickly! No word or hint or suggestion on whether they'll take us back if / when the market picks up.

So, I too feel the anxiety of the fast approaching, dreaded, '12 months since last flight' date. Having said that, it makes sense that when the market kicks off again, agencies/airlines will have very little option but to consider pilots who haven't flown since early in the pandemic. Else the only pool will be newbies with little experience - and I doubt the insurance companies will be happy with that!

However, it is concerning to see some airlines (well...one only that I've seen) recruiting for pilots at rates that are nothing short of offensive! The flag carrier of a far east nation is after TRI / TRE / LTC candidates at the princely sum of US$400 / MONTH base pay! No, I have not omitted any zeros - it is four hundred greenbacks of base pay. This is inclusive of the first 25 hours of flying. Thinking this was some kind of printing error, I contacted the agency. I was politely informed that the total monthly package, inclusive of per diems, for an average 80 to 85 hour month, would be between $3000 and $3500/ month.

Unbelievable! Never did I think I would see such unashamed devaluing of our profession. To offer that to First Officers would be bad enough. To line Captains, insulting in the extreme. To experienced training department pilots, it is just appalling.

I haven't seen (or heard of) any other companies trying on the same thing. I would hope that they get no applications, but we all know that there will be enough truly desperate guys and gals who will not be able to see past the benefit of recency. They will not see that they have given the wider industry an opportunity to join said far east flag carrier in bringing down Ts and Cs to ridiculous levels.

Hopefully the industry will get up and running again before this kind of thing becomes more widespread.

[PilotLZ]

Lucifer786

True that. Right now, you can get excellent flight crews and all sorts of top-notch ground personnel, together with very good and relatively new aircraft at more than competitive lease/purchase rates. Whoever manages to set up a meaningful startup airline now will be lightyears ahead of those who will wait for the crisis to be completely behind us to start a similar project. The same goes for expansion. The same goes for any sort of recruitment. Whenever you have a good choice, picking up the best people/aircraft/routes/slots gives you a competitive advantage over those who would rather sit on their hands and wait.

[perantau]

While waiting for travel to pick up, some find employment in different fields just to make ends meet, and some start small businesses or go into agriculture etc.

Returning to flying jobs may be easier for those who view their current gig as temporary to tide things over. But those who put in a lot of effort into starting something new and get it up & running may be reluctant to abandon it to fly again, especially if the new endeavour shows promise.

[flightleader]

In airline flying for 30 years. Nearly 6 months on No Pay Leave now.

This period gave me a chance to ‘live’ a little despite social distancing and the covid negativity. The privilege of sleeping in my own bed nearly same time every night, waking up same time every morning, going to the toilet with the morning newspaper nearly same time everyday is truly a blessing! Able to take a stroll in the evening sun, explore the menu of little eateries that I never have time to, having the time to chat with people I had never bothered to, all these, has been my living that I never have time to.

As long as there is enough food on the table, we shall just smile and live another day. Work will always be just work. Be kind to yourself. Best wishes to everyone!

[Lucifer786]

You’re not in a terrible position really. You’ve weathered a similar storm before and b. You seem to have heavy experience on the only jet that I foresee will make the quickest comeback. SE Asia, ME and Far East carriers are/will soon be looking for experienced aircrews to crew their domestic flights. I see it uphill all the way from there on.
All the very best my friend. We all need Lady Luck these days more than ever before.

[Lucifer786]

More interested in how that ‘experienced’ pilot will keep himself current and interested in that potential job vacancy 1-2 years hence.
Recency and currency is once again going to be an issue if not well regulated.

[PilotLZ]

LorisBatacchi

You haven't lost your chances for a command. That Airbus FO experience will come in very handy. Maybe not exactly where you imagined, but somewhere there will be an opportunity for an upgrade. If I understand correctly, you still have 15-20 years of working life to age 65 - and that's not little by all measures.

[Lookleft]

More interested in how that ‘experienced’ pilot will keep himself current and interested in that potential job vacancy 1-2 years hence.

That is a very good point. There have been a few comments here and on other social media from LH pilots who are enjoying being in their own bed and starting to feel normal again after the jetlag has been exorcised from their bodies. If they need the money then in the intervening years they are going to have to find something to support themselves and maybe they won't want to go back to what they had before. The lure of aviation might be even less shiny if T&C's are eroded. I am seriously considering leaving the industry if I can find the right opening. I have learnt that I can survive on a lot less money and having a regular routine after so many years of not knowing what I am doing until 10 days before the next month no longer has any appeal. The pilot shortage in the US was going to be exponential over the next 10 years anyway. I think C19 might make that more acute when travel picks up as a lot of pilots in the 55-65 age bracket may just not bother.

[PilotLZ]

Interesting times ahead, I think. There is a good number of pilots aged 55+ around me who are taking their pensions and calling it a day, quite often without having been made redundant. Some are concerned with the immediate situation (i.e. being in an above-average risk age group and having to go through crammed airport terminals, aeroplanes, hotels etc). Others were already tired of it and waiting for the moment to pull out and enjoy retirement. Many younger guys also looking into alternative careers. So, it might as well be that a couple of years after the mother of all crises we'll see the mother of all shortages.

[iggle piggle]

Well i’ve had a bad back for approx 7 years, tried every treatment under the sun to no avail. Guess what, time off with covid and it’s 100%, no sitting in the seat for hours on end plus the drive to work. Every cloud...

[Meester proach]

Best of luck folks. I’m scared what there may be to return to - with things like the $400 a month offer from rishworth / Vietnam. Simply won’t be worth going to the other side of the world when you can get the same money in your local McDonald’s .

I’m sure demand will return eventually , it’s crisis management until then

[nickler]

Agree.

Unfortunately I guess there is not much to smile for. When airlines will restart somehow to hire, there will be a huge supply excess and it does not take fancy economists to realize that oversupply will lead to ridiculous terms&conditions.
Many of us will have no recent flights over the past 2+ years and will accept anything to add a few fresh hours in the logbooks. Apparently some operators are already studying this project, and could eventually end up offering some "return to work" offers for all levels of experience, where You basically fly for free, be it as a Captain or F/O, just to get Your currency back. Multiply that for hundreds of unemployed pilots and You can easily end up covering an almost normal 2022 summer season for peanuts.

[Lucifer786]

So, it might as well be that a couple of years after the mother of all crises we'll see the mother of all shortages.
Extremely well put indeed. I wholeheartedly endorse this viewpoint

[Lucifer786]

Meester proach

May I gently enquire who this airline in particular may be. And what was the type of equipment and rank on which this was offered 😳

[guy_incognito]

It takes an extraordinary level of delusion to think that Ts&Cs will ever get back towards the pre-covid norms. I predict that within three years we'll see A320/737 captains in the UK being paid in the region of £35-40k with zero benefits on temporary or part year seasonal contracts. FOs will be on a mix of pay to fly, fly for free and zero hours/ minimum wage contracts.

Airline management will continue to find new ways to reach that elusive bottom of the barrel. The mere fact that VNA are offering to pay trainers anything at all, rather than demanding that they pay for the privilege of working for them shows that there's still a way to go before the bottom is reached.

[Meester proach]

As stated , in what you quoted ! Are you applying ? I’m sure they’ll be a few.

Maybe if you live in VN, and have nothing to do, it’s for you.

I’m not flying for nothing, and I’m certainly not flying for nothing 1000s of miles away from home. This is not hours building when I was 19. I could fly for reduced salary , but they’ll have to be cast iron guarantees we will be back to a sensible wage when things pick up.

Unfortuntely , they’ll always be halfwits who probably will.

[MonarchOrBust]

Good grief guy. You need to take a very chilled pill. Who on earth is going to spend €70-100k to qualify for a position that is capped at that kind of money? As a Southerner, you need to earn 50k just to make ends meet and run a 3 bed house.

There's a little thing called supply vs demand and right now it's working in the favour of the slave masters, it won't be for long.

[PilotLZ]

I completely agree. Something which I very much hope that people will find somewhat comforting is that there's a difference between a momentary condition and a sustainable one. Offering $400 per month, some Mickey Mouse hourly pay and no other benefits to a TRI who took at least 7-8 years to reach that level (more like 10 if we assume 2 years of initial training, the A320 being their first and only type and no prolonged gaps in employment) is simply not sustainable long-term. To be able to "afford" such a job, you need a secondary source of income because you will never, ever be able to cover even the absolute necessities on this income. And, if you have a strong secondary source of income, why would you be instructing in Vietnam under the full civil and criminal responsibility of a Training Captain? So, such practices will not be around for long, rest assured.

[Meester proach]

Good grief guy. You need to take a very chilled pill. Who on earth is going to spend €70-100k to qualify for a position that is capped at that kind of money? As a Southerner, you need to earn 50k just to make ends meet and run a 3 bed house.

There's a little thing called supply vs demand and right now it's working in the favour of the slave masters, it won't be for long.


Are you referring to me ? I’m very chilled, thank you for Asking , but I’ve been in aviation a long time and am slightly cynical .

I’m not sure what your point is - people have paid that sort of money to train and ended up RHS Flybe dash8 for £30k ? Trust me , they’ll still be those who can find 100k , just so they can get a selfie with stripes on instragram.

Supply has ALWAYS exceeded demand in piloting. The only time I can think of it didn’t was about 1987 ( when a chimpanzee could have got an FO slot ) and in a few recent years - but that boils down to right experience , right type rating , etc.

If you hadn’t noticed even the airlines with great cash reserves are making a land grab for TCs off their crews - and you can bet they won’t be quick to reinstate them after all this unless it’s written legally and binding.

[Superpilot]

Err, I think he was referring to guy_incognito ;)

[guy_incognito]

MonarchOrBust

It's already been proven that there's a market for paying to fly at all levels. A while ago, Eaglejet were offering the chance to fly 500 hours as PIC on the 747 for something like $50k. The requirements for that "job" were pretty much the same as you'd expect for a standard DEC position (significant wide body command time required). They wouldn't have been advertising it if there wasn't a market for it.

Regardless of the salaries on offer, starry-eyed kids will still be lining up to fork over mortgage-sized sums for training, so that they can post pictures on Instagram and Facebook, resplendent in their two stripes and aviators. Flying is highly vocational; people will want to do it regardless of earning potential. People will take on second or third jobs just so that they can fly. It's a minor miracle that salaries have remained as high as they have for as long as they have. Any de-skilled job with an incredibly low academic bar to entry is obviously not going to attract a high salary. That is the cold reality of the situation.

The only way the slide could have been arrested is through strong and aggressive unionisation. You just have to look at the salaries and benefits enjoyed by train/ tube drivers to see the power of 100% union membership and the willingness to go on strike to curb management excesses.

[Private jet]

Those managers thinking they will snap their fingers and hand out reduced contracts to rejoiners may be in for a shock.
Are you sure about that? For the last 20 years airline flying has been a subtle form of masochism. There will be a line quickly formed, ready to take their "punishment". A few sly ones will see that bizjets were not so bad after all and change their opinion of what constitutes "quality" aviation. I suspect 99% will be rightly told to "jog on".

[Meester proach]

Superpilot

Whoops. I thought guy was very chilled as well...

[MonarchOrBust]

The examples you give are not common. This is exagerration.

[guy_incognito]

As I said: delusion.

£40k is still above the average salary in the UK, and is more than most could expect to earn with the qualifications profile required to get an airline job. There is no competition among airlines to attract "the best" candidates, as there would be in other trades. The airline industry will recover in time, but reasonable crew Ts&Cs are gone forever.

[Meester proach]

guy_incognito

Whilst I’d agree on the P2F ( and that’s always existed, I remember folk paying for 737 TRs back in 95 ), I’d take issue with the deskilled bit......every time I go in the sim it doesn’t feel like it, and we are paid for the experience , knowledge and responsibility ....not the hand eye coordination ...which has been of lesser importance since the 50s with the advent of autopilots to help.

RE the academic bar, well, that’s primarily the flying schools trying to get people through the door. 5 GCSEs min is it ?
However the bar was always set higher by airlines recruiting for cadets. I think the 10000 going for the 100 BA cadetships back in the early 90s had to have three decent A levels min. That is where I’d pitch it, as that seems about the level.

A lot of countries insist on degrees, but that seems a bit OTT to me.

[NoelEvans]

I probably should not post on here as I am not a redundant pilot and due to several very fortunate circumstances face no chance of becoming one (again!). However, I have thoroughly enjoyed reading the positive comments on here. Thanks, keep it positive and good luck!

[rotorwills]

Well, so pleased to see such a positive post.

One caveat, don't use the words no chance. Just an experienced fellow of the world.

[Lucifer786]

Two things we’re all gonna have to agree on.
a) The cards have been dealt. ie layoffs, involuntary and voluntary redundancies and retirements, wage cuts, terminations, no pay leave etc etc have now all happened.
b) The deck has now been shuffled. ie pilots from all strata of experience, all levels of performance, all nationalities of the world and working in all airlines in the world and based in most countries the world over have been effected and are now in this pool of ‘available’ pilots.
That said, one thing is for sure. Be it a month from now of a year from now but aviation HAS TO OPEN UP to the traveling public who has grown so used to crossing borders as if they were simply neighborhoods.
Once airlines open up to the travel demand, their recruiters are quite surely going to look to this shuffled up deck of pilots from the world over to pick the best of the lot. Or at least to pick the most of the best. Be it simply to have bums on seats. That said, in order to sustain the level of recruitment then, it is very likely that those very recruiters would offer above market salaries and conditions so as to attract the available lot and then have a picking out of that lot. The ones left behind ( relatively less experienced or qualified ) may well find themselves facing t n c ‘s which might well be below current market values.
I predict that when all this opens up, at least initially, the t n c’s offered by the initial recruiter may well match or even exceed that of pre covid levels initially. And that would only be for one reason and one reason alone. To attract the best available on the hold, in the shortest possible time frame. NO ONE would want their planes on ground again be it for the reverse reasons this time ie shortage of a pilot. No one ! And they will be willing to pay a premium for that fact alone.
Needless to say, the vaccine will be the game changer …

[six-sixty]

I probably should not post on here as I am not a redundant pilot and due to several very fortunate circumstances face no chance of becoming one (again!). However, I have thoroughly enjoyed reading the positive comments on here. Thanks, keep it positive and good luck!

Hi Noel, we work for the same operator but I'm wondering if your very fortunate circumstances might (at least partly) be same ones which are attracting the red light beam to my forehead! After a 30y career (15 in aviation) where apart from a 3 week stint of redundancy when I was 22, I've managed to dodge the axe more times than I can mention, but looks like my luck has finally run out. Though I love flying, it's not part of my identity and I'm certainly not in love every aspect of the lifestyle. My family are being regularly briefed using my best sales skills for a potentially "soul enriching" change of circumstances. Being cast out the wrong side of 50 into the jaws of what I think history will show as a lost decade, with a non-transferrable skillset and previous career experience perished through time, is affecting my sleep a little. My comfort blanket is embracing the belief everything happens for a reason.

Best of luck to everyone. It's been quite cathartic writing this - thanks OP!

[Meester proach]

I can’t see how recovery can begin in the U.K., when every week the government changes where you have to quarantine from. How can anyone plan a holiday when they may lose their job on return.

UK government please stop it and get some airport testing sorted out before you destroy all civil aviation !

[srjumbo747]

Does anyone actually know how many pilots there are redundant worldwide?

[PilotLZ]

Nobody knows. But the more interesting question is how many of them intend to return to flying. Many past their mid-50s don't, as per my observations. Many much younger ones already wanted to pull out and this crisis was the final straw which broke the camel's back. Many who are not redundant will retire or pull out in the next 3 years or so. So, speaking of experienced pilots, the number of applicants for jobs will not be equal to the number of those made redundant. But by how many?

[CW247]

I'd say right now not as high as we might think, judging by news headlines 8000 globally? Of course about to double over the winter season.

I'm with PilotLZ, there is a certain population of pilot that will not be interested any more. And frankly many of these would become victims of recruitment age bias, especially outside of Europe. They know their career is already over. Look around you, this age group of 55+ is very significant. That's a big vacuum that will need to be filled in a few years time.

[NoelEvans]

... I am not a redundant pilot and due to several very fortunate circumstances face no chance of becoming one (again!). ...I apologise if I might have given a misleading impression that I have some 'golden ticket' to avoid redundancy. I am one of those who is going to be forced out due to age (they call it 'retirement'!). Yes, some may not want to continue, but there are still some of us who thoroughly enjoy the job. I will leave with very, very fond memories of a wonderful career. And as such I will be one of those leaving vacancies for others.

However, there has been mention of the "55+". Those that I feel very, very sorry for are the 55 to 60 pilots, especially regional pilots (who were never the wealthiest), who are losing their jobs. By not continuing to 'full term' they have had their pension planning shattered with very little chance of getting back to recover lost ground. And if they do manage to get back into a flying job, they will be forced out again two years before they will be able to receive a State Pension (that is for UK pilots) therefore being hit by a 'double whammy'. This is unfair and for domestic work needs to change in line with some of the more enlightened, civilised countries in the world.

This present situation is going to change a lot in the industry but won't last forever. (As a personal 'show of support' for those who have lost or are losing jobs due to this present situation I will never buy anything from the place that caused all of this and I have been pleased to find that alternatives are usually quite easily available.) Good luck to all of you with your futures.

[Lucifer786]

Vaccine news is churning some top minds in some big airlines. Many of whom are seriously regretting a lot of the very real redundancy drama that has unfolded that last few weeks. Watch this space closely I say

[PilotLZ]

The real consequences will only be known in a couple of years as there will be a massive breakdown in trust and loyalty between employers and employees. Sure, those who have been left jobless will be "happy" to be rehired on half of their previous salary while things are still as bad as they are today - but, once it picks up and more opportunities appear, there will be a mass exodus of personnel from some places. Some of the things some managers did in the past 6 months simply can't be forgotten or forgiven because they lack basic human decency and professionalism. No matter how hard the situation, there's always a respectful way of handling it - but some never bothered to think of one.

[pippobaudo]

Lucifer786

Just out of curiosity, what’s the source of this? Are you in contact with management people in various airlines and you get an “off the record” information or you “think” that this is going to happen? No offense!

[Sam Ting Wong]

Deja-vu of 9/11 in my opinion. Back then we had the same discussion. In the end those called back happily returned. Pilots want and have to work, there is no room for the luxury of hard feelings.

[bringbackthe80s]

Exactly this. Whoever thinks otherwise is deluded

[PilotLZ]

You completely missed the point, nonetheless you call people "deluded". It's one thing when the industry is just about picking up and taking some baby steps towards recovery and that recall is your one and only chance to get back into flying reasonably soon. Then, the decision is an obvious one, no matter what feelings are involved. Preserving and continuing your career is more important than playing it offended in hopes for something better some day. But, long-term, people's loyalty towards a specific employer does get influenced by disgraceful handling of redundancies and unprofessional, opportunistic behaviour. And, even if they have nothing better to choose at the time they get called back, they will in another year or two, once recovery has advanced enough to offer better alternatives. That's when the massive movement will start.

[Sam Ting Wong]

There is no loyality or emotional attachment in this industry. It's a constant and never ending weighing up of demand and supply, basings, roster, pay, command, etc. And then the wife decides

[flightleader]

So true! Command decision from the real commander!

[Future Rodney King]

guy_incognito

I won’t subscribe to that BS. If they want me to continue being responsible for their multi million dollar asset and cash cow (paying pax). Subject me to bi annual sim checks, FDM hanging over my shoulder every day, for 40k a year. No. To coin a phrase, that ain’t gonna fly.

[PilotLZ]

Do you reckon that anyone has the financial means to pay to fly or work for free as a FO for what is on average 5-7 years until command? Or are we going to see destitute homeless beggars living in the gutter flying planes and washing their uniforms in the nearby river? A bit difficult to believe, even with all the relentless doom and gloom banging on 24/7.

[Superpilot]

When you run the numbers, P2F is the most exaggerated thing pilots get annoyed about. It just doesn't happen on the scale people think. WizzAir have slave contracts but it's not quite P2F. SmartLynx and Avion Express are the only companies where 10-20% of new FO recruits regularly come via this path but all are gainfully employed the next year on full salary - in any case, that's Eastern Europe for you and dare I say it, (incoming missiles!) if Brexit is done properly, not something for Brits to worry about anymore when competing for jobs at home. EasyJet had a very brief affair with the concept in 08/09 with approx 15 cadets getting through and people are still harping on about it till this day. If you think I'm wrong, give me some other examples of sizeable airlines who have practiced P2F recently (small, dodgy Cambodian operators don't count).

[guy_incognito]

Future Rodney King

That's an entirely sensible course of action and I won't fly for those sorts of salaries either. The fact remains though that for everyone who says "no" there'll be many more who will sign whatever is put in front of them.

Do you reckon that anyone has the financial means to pay to fly or work for free as a FO for what is on average 5-7 years until command? Or are we going to see destitute homeless beggars living in the gutter flying planes and washing their uniforms in the nearby river? A bit difficult to believe, even with all the relentless doom and gloom banging on 24/7.

I think it's very likely that we will see a situation where FOs will work second and third jobs so that they can pay for their aviation "career".

[PilotLZ]

I'm no fortune teller and I'm totally happy with any opinions different from mine - but still, the latter would be interesting to see with those flying close to 900 hours per year at a LCC. Good luck combining that even with a 20-hour-per-week, student-type job. Even if that's technically possible on a week of 5 or 6 earlies, the brave volunteer giving it a shot won't last for long.

[macdo]

Future Rodney King

Trouble is, in the global market we operate in, there are people out there, from outwith Western Europe/USA who will work for these numbers. I bet Wizz is not short of FO hopefuls for their £12600/yr offering. When the dust settles on this Covid business a whole new world awaits.

[PilotLZ]

The hopefuls for the magenta offer mostly fall into two groups - locals for whom that would still be a decent offer given what else is otherwise available in their countries (spoiler - it makes Wizz look like paradise) and those desperate for any flying job. The former category is not much of a competition to the average Western European, American, Canadian or Australian pilot as most of those would be looking either into opportunities within their own countries or into the more stereotypically expat (and far better paid) jobs in Asia. The size of the latter category is inversely proportional to the number of opportunities out there, i.e. most of them will happily forget about the magenta brigade the very moment they see anything better suited to them. As the overall situation in the market now is about as far from good as it could be, it surely won't be pretty for a while. But in another couple of years things will likely look a lot different. Until the next big crisis which will inevitably happen.

[bringbackthe80s]

There is nothing to smile about.

[Contact Approach]

What about that top quality rest you're now afforded after the years of abuse?

[Smooth Airperator]

Personally, I think you guys in those kinds of jobs are mugs. I've flown an average of 500 hours a year for the past 5 years. I slept better then than now!

[nickler]

Contact Approach

You mean the quality of rest You get by being jobless and not knowing when and IF You will step in a flight deck again and will have to possibly reinvent yourself in a complete different industrie starting from the bottom of the food chain ?

[nickler]

bringbackthe80s

Agree.

All the BS going on about transferable skills and so on... all those crew coaches trying to hook you up to show you your "real potential" and crap like that.
The vast majority of my former colleagues who lost their pilots jobs and do not have the time to wait for something better to come are working as Tesco drivers or Uber.
Maybe they need to find their real potential.

[PilotLZ]

To find any semblance of "real potential" in another industry, you need to commit to it for a good number of years, put a lot of effort into learning (because non-technical skills are essential but without the technical ones you're no professional in anything) and gain experience, starting from the bottom of the ladder. I.e. reinvent yourself completely, which has to start with accepting that aviation is now history for you and you're not coming back into it ever again.

In the end of the day, that's not what the majority of redundant pilots want. At least two thirds of them intend on coming back into flying as soon as given the chance. Hence the "survival" jobs driving delivery vans etc. That's all their current qualification allows for under the circumstances - and getting another one now is only worthwhile if you intend on sticking with it long-term. Spending 2-3 years in misery retraining onto something else, only to bin it and go back into flying right after, hardly makes sense long-term.

[Smooth Airperator]

Nail. Head. On.

[Future Rodney King]

guy/macdo

I don’t care. Should they start taking the Mick and slash t’s&c’s to that sort of level then I’m pulling the pin. They can get some other mug to sit in the left seat.

[Meester proach]

nickler

That’s the problem - if you have a CV with your airline experience on it you’ll get turned down by anyone looking for permanent staff doing anything , as rightly so they know you’ll disappear as and when things improve

Your only real chance for a quick few quid is zero hours stuff in logistics or such like , as depressing a thought as that is.

Or if you are ex - RAF become a after dinner / motivational speaker as it appears 75% do for some reason

[PilotLZ]

Agreed. Again, it's either a not-so-plush job until things improve OR a complete career change forever. In the latter case, you will be able to convince a decent employer to hire you because, having committed to a career change with all the associated efforts and expenditure, you'll appear unlikely to bolt in the very moment any airline starts hiring. Otherwise, focus your search on jobs which have a high staff turnaround in any times. Call centres, supermarkets and many other places are looking for staff all the time because nobody treats this sort of job as anything long-term.

If neither of those two options looks appealing, the third one is working for yourself. But, again, this requires qualification and experience which might or might not be worth getting if you still haven't got them. Examples of that kind of jobs are tradesman, driving instructor, tutor, maybe also financial advisor or marriage counsellor (both very well suited to the average pilot). Depends on what you can do and have done outside of the flight deck.

[nickler]

I agree with your theories, the point is -at least for me- that it’s really though to decide to give up an aviation career because of something that is so crazy like this pandemic. It is also worth mentioning that it is unlikely that any new career started in your mid 40s will pay you enough to keep flying on week ends at your local flying club, unless you are single with no mortgages and expenses.

[Smooth Airperator]

Free bit of advice and you probably won't hear it from anywhere else. In a global pandemic situation, upfront honesty is not always going to be the best policy. This is a fight for survival in many cases. Remove any mention of your flying experience and details of your license from your CV. Your aviation CV is for aviation jobs and nothing more. I'm sure there's many of you out there whose situation is becoming dire and even after selling the car at a massive loss and putting down the pets, you'll be seeing the need to substantially readjust and downsize your lifestyles in order to survive on a Delivery Driver wage. I'm sorry, but I'd rather conceal the truth before I lose everything I have, but that's just me with my flakey principles in the face of adversity. Be bold, convert that 15 years of piloting into 'Business Owner running a transportation business'. Help yourself to get a better job. Don't lend yourselves to being judged or you will suffer.

[nickler]

So Your advice is to massively lie about what you have done so far in your life ? How far do you think that will get you ?
If you have been running a transportation business for 15/20 years and nobody knows anything about it then it also means it was a crappy service.
Come on...

[PilotLZ]

The problem is, you're often required to provide some form of records or references proving your previous employment. If it was otherwise, everyone could make up whatever "employment history" they feel is most appropriate for the job. Employers often do some form of vetting on their candidates without telling them - and, if it turns out that you've been grossly dishonest in the application form, this can bite your lower back a lot worse than the fact that you have spent X years flying for an airline.

[fatbus]

I've been used as reference's several times in the last few months . All pilots I knew , some for flying jobs some not . I was never asked about the individuals flying skills . Pilots need to check their egos at the door , get over yourselves and move on . Harsh but needed!

[PilotLZ]

No reference will detail anyone's pilot skills because, first, a lot of that is subjective judgement, and, second, do you really want to take any unnecessary responsibility? If you say that X is an awesome pilot and he overshoots the runway tomorrow, can it be that the legal department will be after you because you gave an untrue description of his skills? On the contrary, if you write down that he was less than perfect and he doesn't get the job because of this, he can sue you for damage. That's why most references I've seen only contain plain and easy to confirm facts. Was employed from this date to this date in this capacity, flew that number of hours in his role, passed his last proficiency check on this date, had no formal investigations or disciplinary inquiries launched against him. That's about it.

And this is the very reason why lying about your background is not a good idea.

[nickler]

fatbus

Ego ? Move on ? Nobody here is saying that as pilots we deserve anything more than people working regular 9-5 ground jobs BUT I believe that as a group we are getting tired of getting our ax kicked every single time there is some sort of crisis in the world, whether it is a minor or major one like in this circumstance.

[Smooth Airperator]

So Your advice is to massively lie
Nope, me thinks you need to read what I wrote again.

[nickler]

Being a pilot employed by one or more airlines is not owning a transportation business unless you have done that as a second job while flying, which I doubt many of us did flying close to max FDP limits for years.

[Meester proach]

I can’t really do that - I’d have to fabricate 28 years or so and I’m not that good at being that slippery SO......
The saving grace is , I’ve been here before, therefore I always lived to about 35-40% of the salary - yeah so, I didn’t have a second home, flash car or boat but we were still relatively well off .

This means I can live on the JRS , we can get jobs paying enough to continue ...don’t need much .

[Tartiflette Fan]

nicker

This really does read to me as if you continue to think that you are something special, and in this case specially disadvantaged and picked upon. Do you never read/listen to the news and learn about steel-workers, car-workers, oil-workers, ship-builders ( they do still exist ) even the military who have all been affected by world events leading to (often very big )job losses in the recent pre-covid past ?

[Meester proach]

I’m sure he’s aware , but this is not the “ Tata steel workers rumour network “ nor the “ esso roughnecks rumour network “, which is why we tend to concentrate on pilot problems .

We are not a special case, but work in one of those industries very prone to massive boom/ bust cycles.

[nickler]

Tartiflette Fan

This really does read to me you are not following the thread. Somebody was stating you should “adjust” your resume if you’re looking for a job outside aviation. I was pointing out it’s hard to hide 20+ years spent in the flight deck as you can’t just make up a job you’ve never done.

[Tartiflette Fan]

I disagree about being in a very "prone" industry. You are in the middle, but have a huge degree of entitlement which finds its expression in threads like this..

[nickler]

It's funny how there seems to be a few user who joined right about at the same time (April 2020) and the majority of their forum activity is to diminish our (former?) pilot jobs by repeating we are not special, we have been overpaid for years and mine workers have a tougher life than us.
So habibis first of all you are in a forum dedicated to aviation professionals and I believe the vast majority of us is proud to be or to have been employed in this sector. Second point is I am proud, yes PROUD, of my job as an airline pilot for the last 25 years. So if You have got nothing better to do, and decided to join pprune right in the middle of the pandemic mess to freak around with serious professionals who have always put their heart in their activities, then I believe it is about time You start considering some more productive ways of spending your not so valuable time.

[PilotLZ]

Many find comfort in denigrating aviation just because they didn't get what they wanted out of it for whatever reason. Many of those are wannabes who have never had any pilot job. Some are disgruntled experienced pilots. The common denominator of all of them is that they feel better about themselves when pointing out other people's choices as "wrong" (without suggesting any better course of action) and when trying to convince themselves that there was nothing worth fighting for by trying to convince others therein.

[Lucifer786]

Negativity aside, what’s the educated ( and as optimistic as possible pls) prognosis for Jan 2021 for global aviation in terms of routes flown, passenger loads and recruitment patterns.
Would make for some interesting thoughts …🤔

[PilotLZ]

I don't know for sure about global, but the Eurocontrol forecast for Europe until March says that, with the current state of affairs, traffic numbers will stay at about 40-50% of 2019 levels for the coming 6 months. Obviously, this can be reviewed in either direction at any time. The next EC meeting on border reopening is on 13 October, if memory serves me well. Obviously, the EC is advising in favour of a more unified approach than now that could aid travel recovery, but it remains to be seen how willing to take part the national governments will be.

If you ask me, the optimistic scenario is some more significant movement towards spring 2021, hopefully followed by a summer that will be better than summer 2020. Whether that will be achieved through the natural course of the pandemic, through a vaccine, through cheap and easy testing or through a combination of those - we can only guess for now.

[nickler]

I totally agree with PLZ comments above. As of now it’s plain uncharted territory, any guess is purely a crystal ball exercise. My opinion based on what I can read from an aviation and medical point of view is that the second half of 2021 will most likely be the period we are going to start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, and from there on a slow and hopefully constant climb will be possibile. I can’t see any recruitment (I mean classic recruitment, not the 2/3 pilots getting in being friends of friends) coming up before spring 2022 and I am afraid I am damned optimistic.

[PilotLZ]

Good point, nickler. There's indeed a difference between hiring and recruitment. Hiring is happening even as we speak, however dire the situation now. But recruitment, defined as a proactive search for employees on part of a company, will not be happening on any significant scale this year or next year. Why? Because most DFOs already have a list of people to call whenever someone needs to be hired. Those might be pilots made redundant by the same operator earlier on, acquaintances returning from the Middle East, people who have worked for the operator at some past point and have demonstrated a good track record etc. They will inevitably have priority over any external applicant.

With this in mind, my piece of advice for those looking for a job is - don't leave unchecked any opportunity to return to a place where you have previously worked, whether that was 1, 3 or 5 years ago. As long as you left on good terms, that's where your chances are higher than anywhere else. When vacancies are few and far between, those who are already known to the right people and have proven their worth are usually considered first.

[Lucifer786]

Prophetic words there PilotLZ and Nickler.
Sadly, but most probably, recruitment drives may not really be seen until mid next year. If even that. Hiring of course goes on with the need of the hour.
I personally feel that a vaccine would be a game changer. Not just for aviation but also for the overall economy as a whole.
Will be the first baby step towards the giant leap forwards. Fingers crossed !

[DuneMentat]

Problem is putting too much faith in the vaccine. They still don't know the efficacy or how long it's going to protect. At the moment they are happy to just get a 50% efficacy out of the vaccines so even if 100% of the population is vaccinated only 50% will be protected (we can then hope the other 50% will get a milder run if they do get infected). How long is it going to be before everyone is vaccinated? will it be a requirement to fly? Even with my most optimistic glasses on I can't see any meaningful recovery of aviation this side of summer 2021 and possibly well into '22.

[Ancient Observer]

Aviation has grown at c 6% per annum since the 50s. There have been bumps in this, and some huge bumps - 9/11 and later the financial crunch, with Lehman's demise at its peak are the 2 most recent big bumps.
During/after the big bumps, lots of gurus said "it will never be the same again".

After the bumps, Aviation continued to grow at its normal rate.

However, this Wuhan virus is an even bigger bump. Will Aviation recover? Yes. And the old growth rates will resume. ...................As long as some of the Majors can survive a year or so of very limited cash generation.

So, my optimistic spin is that by 2022, Aviation will be growing strongly again.

[PilotLZ]

"It's never going to be the same as in 2019", many of the doom and gloom merchants say. And that's a matter of fact. Just as in 2019 it was not quite the same as in 2018 and in 2018 it was not the same as in 2017. The world is constantly changing. Think about all the companies that vanished since 2015, all the new ones which were created and the changes in fleet types and numbers, destinations and whatnot else in all those which lived through this entire 5-year period. Which ones of the existing companies will make it through the next 5 years, what will they look like and what will the newly found players be like remains to be seen. Some tails will get repainted, that's for sure. Some will do better than others. But, on the grand scheme of things, mass air travel will still be there and growing - it will just have some chairs reshuffled, as it has always been.

[CW247]

Humanity learns from adversity. We become more resilient with each crisis. Bouncebacks are stronger not least because all that pent up will and energy needs to be exercised. No money? Both my neighbours are broke as hell in average to low paid jobs. They holiday much more than me and have always done so. Yes, business travel is unlikely to ever make a recovery but it's my view a lot of business travel is not colleagues meeting other colleagues but companies meeting clients. And you simply don't risk a new business deal for the sake of spending £200 in a flight ticket. So it won't be as bad as we think.

Next year is a write off and there will be more bankruptcies, perhaps even major ones but next year this time airlines will be making solid plans for a major surge in flying for 2022. There will be a temporary recruitment crisis. Not necessarily because of a shortage of pilots but due to an inability to get us all trained, renewed and online. If they're wise they'll start early.

I think the greatest amount of doom and gloom comes from those in their 50s and 60s who were in cushy jobs and know there is nothing out there that can ever match the cosseted lifestyle and high renumeration they had. For us in our 30s and 40s we have much more acceptance of the new norm and have a very tempered expectation.

[PilotLZ]

I think that the perception of how bad a situation is might be based not only on objective figures, but also on some subconscious comparison of the expected duration of the crisis to expected duration of the remainder of one's career. I know that this may start another fight about pension pots and all the likes, but folks in their 50s and 60s are generally far better off and far more secure financially than the youngsters who haven't even paid back their training debt yet. Nonetheless, the younger guys and girls seem not to succumb to much negative talks. Why? Perhaps because they have the realisation that 1 or 2 years are not any sizable fraction of the 30-40 years of career they have got ahead of them. If you are 25, 2 years equal 5% of your time between now and 65. If you are 60, 2 years are already 40% of your time to 65. Massive difference.

[Meester proach]

I don’t mind a new norm as long as if, and when, normality returns our TCs go back to where they were....and then I woke up.

[PilotLZ]

Given that Lufthansa is unlikely to be back to its pre-COVID capacity before 2024, largely because of long-haul, and that there are already plenty of people in the pipeline - no wonder. Also, there will likely be more than enough experienced German pilots fighting for each place in Lufthansa, no matter what. So, why generate extra costs in times when cash is short? Airlines were shown what a high-risk investment cadet programmes are like never before. You can never truly guarantee that, in two years time when your cadets will graduate, the market situation will be favorable enough to allow for their intake. Back in October 2018, did we think that this would happen? Absolutely not!

With this in mind, I would advise anyone aiming for a cadet programme in the next couple of years, no matter where in the world, to accept that they will likely only be offered something where the entire financial risk lies with them. You pay for everything upfront and MAYBE you will get a job in the end. Likely not right away but after spending some time in a holding pool. So, think twice about whether paying any premium price for such an arrangement is worth it. And, when the time comes, only go for it if you're sure that you can afford the less-than-favourable scenario.

[Flying Clog]

It will take at least 5 years (IMHO) for the airlines to reabsorb all the experienced pilots now on the street. And the Ts and Cs will be far worse than what we/they are all used to. Market forces.

So I would say, optimistically, the demand for fresh new pilots want appear for another 5-7 years.

[bafanguy]

Here's a little something:

"Grounded pilots are literally going back to the land in Australia where they’re finding work driving huge agricultural harvesters."

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/grounded-pilots-land-jobs-in-agriculture/

[SaulGoodman]

“Pilots spend a lot of time operating machinery. That’s kind of their core job,” Thomas told the Guardian. “And whether it’s an airplane or an agricultural machine, it’s all the same.”

There you have the solution for the next pilot shortage...

[nickler]

This is the kind of statement that drives me nuts.

In addition to this one "Andrew King has traded the left seat of Hainan Airlines aircraft for the cab of a harvester and he’s looking forward to getting back to work. “They’ve recognized the transferability of the skillset of an airline pilot, someone who could operate heavy equipment and learn large amounts of information quickly and remain proficient,” he said.

So I believe the opposite could be true, i.e. you can have a farmer in command of an airliner with minimum training since they are used to the GPS.

[PilotLZ]

Why do we even need separate qualifications for a harvester, an aeroplane, a coach and a train? It's all the same! The job should be called "Moving machinery operator", with one ticket for all types of rolling, flying and sailing machines out there.

On a serious note, good thing that the guys in question were given some solution to ride this out. Especially knowing just how bad the situation with airlines in Australia is (not that it's awesome elsewhere in the world though).

[Meester proach]

Aye, it’s all true.
At school I used to look at the Wurzels chugging past and hope that one day “ I’d have a brand new combine harvester “.

Maybe covid is my chance ?

[Flying Clog]

I'm a 747 captain, and i would much rather drive a combine harvester, be home every night, with decent pay. Where do I apply?

[CW247]

What this thread now highlights is that there is too much of a good thing. This is hands down one of the most coveted and nicest jobs in the world. However, those that have been doing it the longest or are worked to the bone flying 800-900 hours per year, are increasingly hating it. I have one decade each in both aviation and business technology. I'd rather be flying most days, but after 3 on the trot, give me the office back quick!

For that reason, I'm a massive advocate of airline flying as a part time career as a job option at every airline. Definitely too late for most of you. I have tried it part time, having worked for a charter outfit and it was the best time of my life. Im a contractor in business tech and senior enough to write my own schedule. Sadly charter went tits up.

[Meester proach]

CW247

I think after this a lot of people who have been forced part time, won’t want to go back . I’ve done part time, and if you can afford it, it’s definitely the way to go - with any job !