UK pandemic government aviation policy

[speedrestriction]

Are the U.K. government trying to wipe out the U.K’s airlines? This airbridge policy could hardly be implemented in a more damaging way.

The way changes are being implemented at short notice will undermine people’s confidence in booking anything.

The way they lump geographically (and epidemiologically) distant places in together is illogical. Even a week of “x country is now under increased monitoring due to infection rates” would give people more confidence.

I think this government are lacking in ability and their behaviour is bordering on reckless when it comes to the aviation sector.

[SWBKCB]

Another random COVID thread, when there's plenty already. Anyway, could just as easily argue that the aviation industry's approach to the pandemic has been reckless.

[Walnut]

Boris has totally lost the plot on Quarantine
The cases in the U.K. are verging on the same level as the resent entries eg France.
We are now restricting entry to all from Holland France Spain Portugal.
Most of our food is imported by sea from these countries.
If these countries retaliate and require our lorry drivers to take a test or Q for 14 days a crisis could develop.
In Nelsons time the Royal Navy blockaded Europe might the reverse happen to the U.K?

[LGW Vulture]

Are the U.K. government trying to wipe out the U.K’s airlines? This airbridge policy could hardly be implemented in a more damaging way.

The way changes are being implemented at short notice will undermine people’s confidence in booking anything.

The way they lump geographically (and epidemiologically) distant places in together is illogical. Even a week of “x country is now under increased monitoring due to infection rates” would give people more confidence.

I think this government are lacking in ability and their behaviour is bordering on reckless when it comes to the aviation sector.

You're wasting your time as the majority on here are covid sympathisers. Whether it be the European posters or the Aussie posters, they all seem to be in fear of it. To think this is an aviation forum too, then there are those that point you towards all the science in order to beat you down.

We in the industry will have to live with this decimation because there's not going to be much left when this all blows over.

[AirportPlanner1]

If you think their approach to Covid and the aviation sector is reckless you’ll be livid when you find out what they’ve got planned for January 1st....

[PilotLZ]

Such policies actually do a wonderful job on discouraging travel to the extent when most people will no longer need any blanket ban to stay put. The sole thought that your destination might get onto the wrong list while you are there, sending you into the Mickey Mouse uncontrolled "self-isolation with exceptions" upon arrival, will make you think more than twice before booking. Whether the potential public health benefits of that outweigh the tremendous economic damage is quite arguable. I would instead be looking into something similar to the German setup - large-scale testing of those returning from high-risk REGIONS (not countries - regions!) instead of blanket restrictions on whole big chunks of the world, a huge part of which isn't any more dangerous than the UK in terms of contagion risk. But probably in a year or two we'll know more about who was right and who was wrong.

[Cloud1]

My belief - and I don’t care if anyone agrees or not - is that Boris wants everyone to holiday in the U.K. so that we are not dependant on any other country for tourism. This is part of his Brexit strategy and he has already openly said there will be no summer holidays abroad this year pre airbridge so the latter was just a half hearted approach at pacifying those that questioned why it wasn’t doing anything to support the travel industry. Boris is deluded and wants to make “Britain great again” but fails to recognise the importance of inbound tourism and economic benefit.

This winter will see casualties - they are already hard
months and with very little summer funding to help airlines through, plus the lack of confidence others have alluded to, we are in very dangerous waters.

The virus isn’t going away. However we as a country are failing to adjust our ways of living to accommodate the virus and instead we are trying to fight it. Labour were spot on in that the government need to up their game on the track and trace system and adequate testing measures rather than blanket quarantines.

[Mr Mac]

Cloud 1
Tend to agree with you re BJ and unspoken policy. I think he would like it if all holiday money was spent by the UK population in the UK, and if not on holidays on doing up houses replacing cars etc , preferably UK manufactured if at all possible. I am not sure its a plan, as BJ does not do that ,more of a gut feeling of his, which he acts on all too frequently, for those surrounding him and the recipients of his "gut" effect. I do not see any light yet at the end of the tunnel in this, so I think it will be tough winter for this sector.
Kind regards
Mr Mac

[shinners]

Cloud 1
Tend to agree with you re BJ and unspoken policy. I think he would like it if all holiday money was spent by the UK population in the UK, and if not on holidays on doing up houses replacing cars etc , preferably UK manufactured if at all possible. I am not sure its a plan, as BJ does not do that ,more of a gut feeling of his, which he acts on all too frequently, for those surrounding him and the recipients of his "gut" effect. I do not see any light yet at the end of the tunnel in this, so I think it will be tough winter for this sector.
Kind regards
Mr Mac

Autarchy in UK...great plan

[EastofKoksy]

It is impossible to run any business on the basis the government will allow you to operate this week but might ban you next week and penalise your customers for doing business with you. Then, to rub salt into the wound, they say the consequences of their decisions are your problem.

[ATNotts]

Does the UK have an aviation policy; let lone one to get through the pandemic?

[southside bobby]

At a stroke the decimation of airlines & with it the airports removes too any personal confliction for the Prime Minister in regard to RW3 at LHR.No more waiting around in wellies & the show boating hard hat photo op waiting for those `dozers anymore.So conflicted was he... did he not "disappear" to Europe on an "urgent" or "prearranged" visit when in charge at the F/O so not to be present at a pertinent vote in the Commons back in the day....
C19 handling ineptitude helps to remove what were the many looming expansion projects from virtually every UK airport & therefore relief from decision making resulting in avoidance of any Minister/Government confrontation with what though before C19 was clearly fast becoming deference to the Green lobby juggernaut.
Very harshly for the industry but for politicos only concerned with their own personal short-termism doing nothing strategically now only meddling & muddling produces clearly a win for themselves unfortunately...
Aviation decisions & strategy not just kicked into the long grass but into the long grass many meadows away appears the scenario with these opportunistic muddle heads...
The only hope could be in the Autumn with a Chancellor with clear sights on the top job setting out strategic No 11 policy inc reducing or abolishing say APD to start...or specific & targeted support for industry sectors...

[nuisance79]

Either way we cant carry on like this, there is literally going to be nothing left of the Aviation industry and a lot of others come to mention it!

I don't see the point in a Lockdown (let alone another) unless you lock everyone down until there is no trace of the virus left. What's the point in having a lockdown and then ending in at the start of the summer as humans will just be humans therefore, infection rates are bound to creep up again. Its almost like part of the plan was to have a 'second waive!'

The only alternative I can see is just to carry on as old normal (i.e as if it was 2019) and just learn to live with the thing as we do other viruses. Sorry if that may sound selfish but I'm afraid the path we are on at the moment is leading to nothing short of disaster.

N79

[DaveReidUK]

You're wasting your time as the majority on here are covid sympathisers.

Well that's a new one on me.

Isn't sympathy a bit wasted on a virus ?

[ciderman]

For what it's worth, with the country in such a mess (whose fault? - discuss) how is flying on an Irish Airline, using Arab fuel to a Spanish resort and spending British currency in a Costa Brava bar going to help? Sorry but Boris hasn't got much right but he is OK on this one.

[Cloud1]

For what it's worth, with the country in such a mess (whose fault? - discuss) how is flying on an Irish Airline, using Arab fuel to a Spanish resort and spending British currency in a Costa Brava bar going to help? Sorry but Boris hasn't got much right but he is OK on this one.

Because ciderman we need airlines and an aviation industry along with the multiple thousands of jobs it secures. Please wake up and realise the bigger impact here. Boris most certainly has not got it right at all. The U.K. are behind many other countries and it’s all well and good saying their cases are rising but that’s the case everywhere and will be the case here in the U.K. regardless. Feel free to sit in isolation if you wish but we need to keep planes flying.

[PilotLZ]

Cloud 1
Tend to agree with you re BJ and unspoken policy. I think he would like it if all holiday money was spent by the UK population in the UK, and if not on holidays on doing up houses replacing cars etc , preferably UK manufactured if at all possible. I am not sure its a plan, as BJ does not do that ,more of a gut feeling of his, which he acts on all too frequently, for those surrounding him and the recipients of his "gut" effect. I do not see any light yet at the end of the tunnel in this, so I think it will be tough winter for this sector.
Kind regards
Mr Mac
Spending holiday money in the UK wouldn't necessarily reduce casualties across the board. While it's true that a part of your money will thus go to a hotel/restaurant owner in Penzance instead of a hotel/restaurant owner in Costa Adeje, the failure of airlines, travel agencies and all other British businesses relying on international travel is likely to far outweigh this in terms of overall impact.

[OzzyOzBorn]

This is a crisis. We face a pressing need for a testing kit to check for the presence of a brain within the human body.

650 kits required at Westminster with utmost urgency. Please advise immediately if any sign of a brain is found.

[pax britanica]

Boris isnt bothered about the UK population just his scumbag crooked friends who will still holiday abroad and dodge isolation by private jets and citizenship in tax havens.

Lets face it he and his friends , Gove and Cummins and Hancock have had their hands in the till over PPE kits and testing aps allegedly giving contracts to companies owned by friends and family.

An awful state of affairs exemplified by having aircraft carriers when e need patrol boats and using A400s where a Cessna 150 would do the job.
The Ameircan's have a word for what they are doing to us-Gaslighting and we are just watching it happen

[LTNman]

This is now the third Covid 19 thread or should I call it a government bashing thread. It doesn’t matter what the government does the usual suspects will see it as an opportunity for political points scoring.

Travelling abroad for a jolly during a pandemic has never struck me as being bright particularly when the virus has propagated through mass travel. The virus can quickly get out of control so the government reacts to countries with problems and people here don’t like it.

Coronavirus in Europe: Infections surge in France, Germany and Spain. Germany blames returning holidaymakers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53747852

[SWBKCB]

This is going well, isn't it? Personal insults and conspiracy theories, who'd have guessed.

So, how about a few facts - how does the UK's "aviation policy" compare to our neighbours in terms of quarantine, support for airlines, etc?

[Big_D]

This is going well, isn't it? Personal insults and conspiracy theories, who'd have guessed.

So, how about a few facts - how does the UK's "aviation policy" compare to our neighbours in terms of quarantine, support for airlines, etc?

The policy is simple, not sure how you missed the recent announcement: "**ck business" - Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, UK PM.

[LTNman]

The UK gave the Hungarian holding company of Wizz £300m who didn’t need the money so allowing them to pay off £300m of loans with cheap UK loans.

[southside bobby]

LTNman...

Semantics or no this thread title appeals more...certainly to myself & is quite specific if you care to read or re read the heading...

I count two different threads & like me you have posted across both but your good self has continued discussion thru at least two airport threads as well may I point out...

You mention mass travel but airbridges were/are contrived rightly or wrongly from political & Governmental desire too though yes/no? & all modes of travel basically encouraged by the Government in recent times...

If the majority of posts may appear "government bashing" to you perhaps that may indicate others view & express certain issues differently but are no less valid in these trying & difficult times for the industry..

[Dannyboy39]

The UK gave the Hungarian holding company of Wizz £300m who didn’t need the money so allowing them to pay off £300m of loans with cheap UK loans.
Isn’t this factually incorrect? It was in fact a U.K. based subsidiary?

[BA318]

Boris has totally lost the plot on Quarantine
The cases in the U.K. are verging on the same level as the resent entries eg France.
We are now restricting entry to all from Holland France Spain Portugal.
Most of our food is imported by sea from these countries.
If these countries retaliate and require our lorry drivers to take a test or Q for 14 days a crisis could develop.
In Nelsons time the Royal Navy blockaded Europe might the reverse happen to the U.K?

There is a long list of people exempt from the regulations and it includes lorry drivers and those traveling weekly for business. I assume such exemptions would be reciprocal. Lots of EU nations were quarantining brits and many still do so we are by no means alone in this. Ireland is still advising against travel to almost everywhere.

As for the conspiracy theories in other posts, it’s good to see everyone believes everything they read on social media...

[Expressflight]

This is going well, isn't it? Personal insults and conspiracy theories, who'd have guessed.

So, how about a few facts - how does the UK's "aviation policy" compare to our neighbours in terms of quarantine, support for airlines, etc?

That's a good question and maybe someone has easy access to that data. I don't unfortunately but have found that Germany has, effective today, imposed some form of self-isolation at home for those returning from Spain and the Balearic Islands. They seem to define 'risk areas' as those having a 14 day cumulative infection rate of 50 per 100,000 population. Spain is 111, Malta 84, Belgium 59, Netherlands 42, France 34, while the UK is currently 17 per 100,00. It seems that the UK applies a lower infection rate to its quarantine policy than does Germany at this time.

A previous poster stated that the UK's infection rate is "verging on the same level as .... France". That's hardly accurate as it is only 50% of the current French infection rate.

[LTNman]

Isn’t this factually incorrect? It was in fact a U.K. based subsidiary?

The money went to the holding company which is Hungarian. Not saying that is wrong but on the face of it seemed a little strange except Wizz Air Holdings LTD is listed on the U.K. stock exchange despite not being a U.K. company

[LTNman]

LTNman...


You mention mass travel but airbridges were/are contrived rightly or wrongly from political & Governmental desire too though yes/no? & all modes of travel basically encouraged by the Government in recent times...

.

Like many I have lost foreign holidays this year when both Gibraltar and Spain imposed their own travel bans. In my case they were holidays booked last year but it was something I had to take on the chin and just accept. I now watch winging holidaymakers returning from France saying the decision was disgusting when it has been hinted about for a good week as French numbers rise.

[Manx]

Like many I have lost foreign holidays this year when both Gibraltar and Spain imposed their own travel bans. In my case they were holidays booked last year but it was something I had to take on the chin and just accept. I now watch winging holidaymakers returning from France saying the decision was disgusting when it has been hinted about for a good week as French numbers rise.
Seems to me like most people coming back from France aren't "winging" at all but just fairly accepting albeit disappointed. At the same time theyre trying to avoid being put in lockdown again. Maybe the Daily Mail/Express/Sun have put a spin on it for some. I haven't booked a holiday this year but I don't begrudge other people taking the gamble, especially if it helps to keep some sort of revenue stream coming into the aviation industry. I guess some people are quite happy for airports and airlines to fail and for employees and investors to take a hit, or maybe they don't understand basic business.

[southside bobby]

Nice edit LTNman...but still contradictory yes/no...

The question you require to answer for yourself is WHO did nothing to discourage & even encourage all modes of & including mass travel (airbridges) in recent times that as you point out is causing the increase in outbreaks if not the Government itself?...Contrarily you choose to castigate others here instead for "government bashing "in pointing out reality (albeit in their own way perhaps)

Reality & answer is simples keeping to the theme of the thread...This Government does not have a strategic approach for airports with the current pandemic & everyone is feeling or will feel consequences...
Mass travel is/was obviously too soon especially with an inadequate test/trace & mitigation system & clear lack of focused virus education on their own media for younger people who as travelers too are the main spreaders now.

[inOban]

I don't think that the government encouraged mass travel. It always said that it would not hesitate to reinstate restrictions and that any travel was at your own risk. It merely listed those destinations which at that time were lower risk.

[southside bobby]

Correct wouldn`t really disagree with the headline/strap announcements/advice from Government but after many weeks of lockdown it could be thought the resulting rebounding scale of holiday travel was inevitable/predictable & therefore condoned (of course at own risk) Certainly the PM turned volte face & sought to encourage a large return to public transport right out of the box...

[BA318]

This policy also continues to poll well with voters hence why it’s continuing. In polling, bailouts and support for airlines also gets very little support. Few people think airlines look out for anyone other than themselves hence when airlines then want help few are willing to support them. Especially with BA being shown in the media as firing their staff to rehire on lower wages despite profits and VS being shown as the toy of a tax dodging billionaire.

The government made clear that any destination on the list could easily be removed and at short notice. Ministers also said in interviews that they wouldn’t recommend booking holidays abroad.

[gsa]

Boris has totally lost the plot on Quarantine
The cases in the U.K. are verging on the same level as the resent entries eg France.
We are now restricting entry to all from Holland France Spain Portugal.
Most of our food is imported by sea from these countries.
If these countries retaliate and require our lorry drivers to take a test or Q for 14 days a crisis could develop.
In Nelsons time the Royal Navy blockaded Europe might the reverse happen to the U.K?

Lorry drivers have never been subject of quarantine or travel restrictions at anytime throughout the whole pandemic. A lot of foreigners refused to deliver but we were still getting about 10 artic loads a day from Poland and Italy.

[southside bobby]

BA318

"Ministers also said in interviews that they wouldn`t recommend booking holidays abroad"....

Ahhh that explains the Secretary of State for Transport red faced & expedited back to the UK from holiday in Spain to serve his 14 days Q forthwith then...

[BA318]

BA318

"Ministers also said in interviews that they wouldn`t recommend booking holidays abroad"....

Ahhh that explains the Secretary of State for Transport red faced & expedited back to the UK from holiday in Spain to serve his 14 days Q forthwith then...

Doesn't mean they all followed the advice... I know several MPs are in France and Holland now and will also be affected.

At the end of the day it is obvious that a global pandemic is still underway and any trips will be at risk. Surely we don’t need the Government to tell us everything constantly? The media have been reporting for a week that France was likely to be added back to the list and they did give a day and a half notice which was more than Spain and Belgium got.

[Martin the Martian]

While the government have not covered themselves in glory (yet again) with their decision the airline industry didn't exactly help themselves by suddenly putting up prices for those people wanting to fly back before the deadline. One flight (didn't catch which airline) was mentioned on the news yesterday evening with the price going from £100 to £300. Profiteering? Surely not.

[Walnut]

I think we should be very concerned about the U.K. virus case position, in the last 3 days it has risen by about 40%
2days ago 1009 yesterday 1129 today 1440 We are heading the same way as France.
Even if there is no further increase that’s circa 10000 cases on a rolling 7 day measure.
I should be very interested to know how the experts calculate the 17.4 per 100000 level that they report
notwithstanding this rise the deaths are falling so is all this lockdown being overplayed

[AirportPlanner1]

I’ve got a lot of legitimate criticisms of the Government and I’m glad to see some of those issues being picked up fairly widely by others. You don’t have to be a Remoaner to see giving a £150m contract to a £100 company run by a friend for PPE that turns out to be inadequate is wrong.

This is something we can’t prove, but the cynic in me thinks the strategy IS to harm the aviation sector. Amongst the very many electoral problems for the Tories to see off is airport expansion, and to a lesser extent the climate change lobby. Well, decimating the sector very much puts Heathrow and others very much back into the long grass. And possibly gives scope to reduce APD without upsetting environmentalists.

[PilotLZ]

Actually, the German model makes a lot of sense. It's pure maths, based on a rolling infection rate threshold of 50 people per 100,000 population in the last 7 days. So, it makes short-term decision making very simple and predictable. Wiki will happily tell you what the population of your region of interest is. You calculate the cases per 100,000 and draw the conclusions on whether they're anywhere close to the threshold. If you've been unlucky enough to find yourself somewhere where the numbers exceed the threshold, you're given the choice of either undergoing a compulsory test upon arrival to Germany or, if you feel that this is too much of an intrusion into your privacy, you may instead stay in quarantine for 14 days. Bloody good way of mitigating risk and keeping the economy running at the same time.

Some keen defenders of the UK model will now say that the test might not always detect infection. Fair enough, it can happen. But, in the UK version of things, people in "self-isolation" are nonetheless allowed to go shopping for essentials and participate in some other, albeit very limited activities. What's the chance that someone infected and untested will infect a whole bunch of people in his local Tesco? And what's the chance that they will also go elsewhere, using the excuse that they were going for essentials if stopped by the police? I think that it's more or less the same as that of someone with a false negative test doing the same. So, in terms of risk mitigation, "self-isolation" is no better than testing. It either has to be proper quarantine with zero contacts with the outer world - or it serves no practical purpose.

Now, the conspiracy theories that the government is deliberately destroying aviation in order to not have to deal with stuff like the LHR expansion - I cannot comment on that, it might be true or it might not be. But, for sure, there are alternatives which could keep many companies in business and many people employed. Why they are not being implemented is not for me to say.

[Dannyboy39]

I think we should be very concerned about the U.K. virus case position, in the last 3 days it has risen by about 40%
2days ago 1009 yesterday 1129 today 1440 We are heading the same way as France.
Even if there is no further increase that’s circa 10000 cases on a rolling 7 day measure.
I should be very interested to know how the experts calculate the 17.4 per 100000 level that they report
notwithstanding this rise the deaths are falling so is all this lockdown being overplayed
These numbers are fairly meaningless though - if you’re testing more people, you’re going to find more people. The ONS figures are far more accurate and it says that 1 in 1900 people in the U.K. have the virus right now and only 6% of the population have had it. It’s just disappointing that governments/ ECDC are using these numbers as gospel and using it to decide policy such as travel. Monaco for example has tested 90% of their population whereas most countries are struggling to test 10%. Indonesia for example has tested 7 in 1000! Testing in a lot of countries is risible.

At the peak of the peak just before Easter, around 100,000 new cases were suspected a day in the UK. Officially there was only 5-6k cases a day hence why people are seeking headlines about second waves.

[LTNman]

LTNman, there is no such Company as ‘Wizz Air Holdings LTD’ Do you perhaps mean Wiz Air Holdings PLC?

Wizz Air Holdings Plc is a United Kingdom-based airline company. The Company provides low-cost air transportation services on scheduled short-haul and medium-haul point-to-point routes across Europe and into the Caucasus and the Middle East. It operates a fleet of approximately 60 Airbus A320 aircraft, and offers over 380 routes from 22 bases, connecting 112 destinations across 38 countries. In addition, the Company offers approximately 50 Hungarian routes to 22 countries from two Hungarian airports. Its subsidiaries include Wizz Air Hungary Limited and Wizz Air Ukraine Airlines LLC.

Of course, the London Stock Exchange could be wrong...

https://wizzair.com/en-gb/information-and-services/about-us/company-information

Actually the holding company is based in Jersey as a tax dodge. Jersey is not officially part of the United Kingdom, but rather a British Crown Dependency which is self-governing.

[SWBKCB]

Now, the conspiracy theories that the government is deliberately destroying aviation in order to not have to deal with stuff like the LHR expansion - I cannot comment on that, it might be true or it might not be. But, for sure, there are alternatives which could keep many companies in business and many people employed. Why they are not being implemented is not for me to say.

Think people need to get their heads out of the aviation bubble - in the list of issues facing the country, how near the top do you think LHR expansions is that it needs special attention?

[inOban]

Lots of multinational companies are listed on the UK stock exchange.
And most tax dodging isn't illegal, unfortunately. Indeed it is the duty of the Board to minimise their tax bill, leaving more for the shareholders. It's been a failure of governments round the world to make sure that businesses pay taxes where they actually do business.

[ShyTorque]

If you think their approach to Covid and the aviation sector is reckless you’ll be livid when you find out what they’ve got planned for January 1st....

You have inside information? Please tell.

[AirportPlanner1]

Think people need to get their heads out of the aviation bubble - in the list of issues facing the country, how near the top do you think LHR expansions is that it needs special attention?

Actually significant infrastructure investment, which Heathrow surely is, was pre-Covid policy and has been reiterated very recently. Certainly provides more jobs than duelling of the A66....

[Expressflight]

I think we should be very concerned about the U.K. virus case position, in the last 3 days it has risen by about 40%
2days ago 1009 yesterday 1129 today 1440 We are heading the same way as France.
Even if there is no further increase that’s circa 10000 cases on a rolling 7 day measure.
I should be very interested to know how the experts calculate the 17.4 per 100000 level that they report
notwithstanding this rise the deaths are falling so is all this lockdown being overplayed

You say you would like to know how the 17.4 cases per 100,000 population is calculated. It's a figure calculated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for all European countries. It's the cumulative number of daily infections per 100,000 population for a rolling 14 day period. If the UK had a constant daily infection rate of 666 over a 14 day period that would be one case per 100,000 population per day, so the 14 day cumulative number would be 14.0. If over the next fortnight the average daily new case rate is 1,332 (which could be possible given the trend) the EU figure for the UK would be 28.00. France at the moment is 34.0.

[Cloud1]

Seems to me like most people coming back from France aren't "winging" at all but just fairly accepting albeit disappointed. At the same time theyre trying to avoid being put in lockdown again. Maybe the Daily Mail/Express/Sun have put a spin on it for some. I haven't booked a holiday this year but I don't begrudge other people taking the gamble, especially if it helps to keep some sort of revenue stream coming into the aviation industry. I guess some people are quite happy for airports and airlines to fail and for employees and investors to take a hit, or maybe they don't understand basic business.

Agree with you Manx.

[Walnut]

Thanks for that explanation On Today Grant Shapps said France was 20.5
Boris is always stating the infection rate in the U.K. is 1900 using the ONS figures down from 4000 I believe are his words So using that calculation that means the U.K. is circa 30, about 50% more than France
So who is right? or are we being given yet more dodgy numbers

[Expressflight]

Thanks for that explanation On Today Grant Shapps said France was 20.5
Boris is always stating the infection rate in the U.K. is 1900 using the ONS figures down from 4000 I believe are his words So using that calculation that means the U.K. is circa 30, about 50% more than France
So who is right? or are we being given yet more dodgy numbers

Firstly the ONS figures normally cover England only, although they included Wales for the first time in their latest survey. This estimated the number of people in England who had COVID-19 during the week 3 to 8 August at 28,300 people, that is 1 in 1,900 people (not that only 1,900 people had it as your post seems to say) so presumably Boris said "1 in 1,900" as well. I would trust the ECDPC numbers rather than what any politician says as far as infection rate per 100,000 of population is concerned. All the daily numbers for infections are a function of the number of people being tested - test more people and you will pick up more infections, especially if the testing is focused on outbreak 'hotspots', that is obvious. As the UK has to date carried out 12 million tests compared to France's 6 million the raw number of daily infections for the UK is likely to be higher is it not? This week's 'More or Less' on Radio 4 is worth a listen as it discusses testing at some length.

[topradio]

It's good to see that more on here are starting to see the light and question the official narrative. Perhaps it's the effective ban by OFCOM on the broadcast of anything that dissents from the government's line that means that so many have been brainwashed by the constant drip-drip of the message into their homes and brains (it's known as gaslighting).

It's a simple question, and perhaps one of you scientists can answer it? If this lethal virus is infecting so many new people every day, why aren't they dying in massive numbers?

[Expressflight]

It's good to see that more on here are starting to see the light and question the official narrative. Perhaps it's the effective ban by OFCOM on the broadcast of anything that dissents from the government's line that means that so many have been brainwashed by the constant drip-drip of the message into their homes and brains (it's known as gaslighting).

It's a simple question, and perhaps one of you scientists can answer it? If this lethal virus is infecting so many new people every day, why aren't they dying in massive numbers?

I'm certainly no scientist but I can think of three reasons:

1. Many among the more threatened section of the population, the elderly or those with underlying health problems, are still cautious about socialising while the young are fed up with the restrictions and are more reckless in their behaviour. The upshot is that the average age of those infected may be lower than previously so fewer hospitalisations and deaths.
2. The time from infection to death is likely to be two or three weeks at least so the increase in deaths hasn't materialised yet.
3. Treatments for those hospitalised have become more effective and better targeted so more are surviving the infection than previously.

[Dannyboy39]

The FCO this morning have clarified that if you've transited through BSL, being on French soil, you have to self isolate!

[SWBKCB]

Perhaps it's the effective ban by OFCOM on the broadcast of anything that dissents from the government's line

Care to expand on that? Examples?

[homonculus]

Some sensible discussion in between the conspiracy theories on this thread

The issue is we are using tests that have a significant false negative - up to 40% - and then extrapolating using different methods and assumptions. You cant compare apples with pears. In addition most young infected individuals are asymptomatic or parsi symptomatic and dont get tested. We can follow the same figure over time, but the politicians are changing the goal posts making even that difficult

The attack rate (number of people infected) is increasing in the UK and most of Europe and India. It is falling in the US. I am sceptical there is a second wave, a term coined in 1918 for a second year of infection when science couldnt identify the virus and government control was patchy. What we see is a balance between the degree of lockdown and attack rate. Reduce lockdown, get more cases, and vice versa.

The worry is we are seeing a repeat of the US when they stopped lockdown. The elderly and at risk populations stayed in isolation but the young went partying. The attack rate rose but hospitals remained empty for some weeks until the number of cases hit a level where the virus spilled into the older and more at risk populations. Result - a rapid increase in deaths and hospitalisations.

The obvious answer is to maintain restrictions on high risk activities such as pubs, restaurants and sporting events and concentrate grants, loans and furlough on these industries instead of waving money around at people who can safely work. Some people and businesses I regret have done well from the pandemic although we cant blame people for accepting taxpayers' money when they are offered it

As for aviation, it seems unlikely load factors can become profitable pre vaccine except for a minority of routes so money needs to be concentrated there as well.

[scr1]

You think the Government has a sensible policy that it will stick to on anything??????????????

[Walnut]

Express freight suggests that an estimated 1 in 1900 infections as reported by the ONS does not bust the Grant Shapps criteria of infections of over 20 per 100000 will lead to Q.
It most certainly does at 39.7 over the 14 days rolling average it puts the U.K. miles over, this being the established criteria as used by the EU
What Shapps has slipped in is his measure is now over 7 days which obviously halves the reported number, putting the U.K. just below the 20 boundary
He justifies this change by saying it alerts the government more quickly to a virus increase
its just smoke and mirrors, as his methodology is not WHO? Practice
politicians will say anything to save face

[P.N.Ridley]

I want to know why ( if this virus is so deadly ) do we need to be tested to see if we have or haven't had it?

[Expressflight]

Express freight suggests that an estimated 1 in 1900 infections as reported by the ONS does not bust the Grant Shapps criteria of infections of over 20 per 100000 will lead to Q.
It most certainly does at 39.7 over the 14 days rolling average it puts the U.K. miles over, this being the established criteria as used by the EU
What Shapps has slipped in is his measure is now over 7 days which obviously halves the reported number, putting the U.K. just below the 20 boundary
He justifies this change by saying it alerts the government more quickly to a virus increase
its just smoke and mirrors, as his methodology is not WHO? Practice
politicians will say anything to save face

You are well illustrating the difficulty of trying to compare apples with pears and come up with a meaningful result.

There are two sets of figures derived from two different methodologies:

1. The ONS data estimates the likely number of people who have COVID-19 during a particular week AND the likely number of people actually infected in that week. Those are obviously two different numbers. They estimate that 1 in 1,900 (that's 28,300 people) had the disease in the week 3rd to 9th August. They separately estimate that 26,600 were infected during that week. Those estimates are not based upon testing those presenting with symptoms or who are tested in health care environments etc. as are those produced by Public Health England, but ONS random testing of 122,000 people resulting in 58 positives. They extrapolate that number to give an estimate of the total cases in England.

2. The EU's ECDPC collates data from all the European countries health authorities, such as the Public Health Authorities in UK, to produce an infection rate among those tested under each country's testing scheme with the aim of giving reasonable comparisons between countries and some sort of bench mark for imposing travel restrictions etc.. As I said previously the vast differences in the percentage of the population tested in each country casts doubt over the validity of the figures for each, but it does seem that their figures are used in that way in the absence of anything better.

Are you not using the ONS numbers for England as a comparison with the ECDPC Europe wide numbers to produce your figure of 39.7? I would suggest that this is just not a valid comparison.

[LTNman]

LTNman, so now you are accusing the company of an illegal means of reducing the tax they pay? A very serious charge to make, one that you may have to defend. I suggest you contact the City of London Police pronto with your evidence.

First you got the company name wrong, now it’s about being based in Jersey, a British Crown Dependency. They are listed on the London Stock Exchange as a UK based airline company.

LTNman, perhaps you should read what the BOE had to say about why Wizz qualified for the loan. And yes, it’s a loan. They have not been ‘given’ the money. Or is Wizz Air UK Ltd. another issue for you?


Calm down sonny. You are soooo angry and all about nothing. I am happy to say legally reducing their tax bill while receiving UK government support. Yes we all agree they are listed on the London stock exchange but they are registered in Jersey, which is a British Crown Dependancy, have their HQ in Hungary and qualified for government loans. Their UK airline is registered to an office in Luton’s terminal which I don’t think is even staffed.

[LTNman]

You think the Government has a sensible policy that it will stick to on anything??????????????

Again we have a poster who focuses on the English government yet quarantines etc are devolved decisions but there is no mention of the governments of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in any post here. Why would that be?

[southside bobby]

To be fair Wizz appeared to be thrown into the mix with no apparent reasoning with post #24 & the original poster been digging a few holes with corrections on the subject since..

[Cloud1]

Again we have a poster who focuses on the English government yet quarantines etc are devolved decisions but there is no mention of the governments of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in any post here. Why would that be?

Probably because the vast majority of airports in the U.K. fall under the English rules rather than others you list.

[racedo]

Most people would be happy for a UK policy on the pandemic, (ANY POLICY), that doesn't change quicker than Megan changes dresses.

Compare and contrast across the Irish sea, pubs still shut as school getting back are more important, want to visit then 14 day quarantine................. policy is consistent.

[ericsson16]

Again we have a poster who focuses on the English government yet quarantines etc are devolved decisions but there is no mention of the governments of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in any post here. Why would that be?
I am in quarantine and resident near Glasgow after visiting the canary islands,my air ticket was bought and I travelled during the 3 days window of opportunity shambles,the following paragraph is from the Scottish Government,I like to call it the Stasi paragraph "If the National Contact Tracing Centre is unable to contact you via 3 phone calls or an email in order to provide you with public health advice and support during your period of stay in your specified premises, Public Health Scotland is obliged to share your contact details with Police Scotland who will continue with the follow-up process to engage, explain, encourage, and enforce the law, where necessary."

[PilotLZ]

That's how it works in most countries. If you can't be reached by the health services for a random check by phone, they send the police to the address to check if you are actually there. And woe to you if you aren't. The only difference is that pretty much everywhere in the world other than the UK quarantine means that you are not allowed to step out of your home for any reason whatsoever. Not even for food. Not even to throw the rubbish bags into that bin just across the street. Not even for a quick cigarette in front of the doorstep.

[Expressflight]

ericsson16

Three phone calls and an email to check if you're at the address you gave for quarantine and not getting any response from you seems a reasonable amount of effort to me. It would surely suggest you are not where you said you would be so a report to the enforcing authority doesn't seem over the top. Or would you suggest they don't bother checking people's compliance with the regulations?

[ericsson16]

ericsson16

Three phone calls and an email to check if you're at the address you gave for quarantine and not getting any response from you seems a reasonable amount of effort to me. It would surely suggest you are not where you said you would be so a report to the enforcing authority doesn't seem over the top. Or would you suggest they don't bother checking people's compliance with the regulations?
"seems a reasonable amount of effort to me",are you serious? I came from the canary island archipelago which has had 162 deaths to the UK archipelago which has had 41000+.So to be absolutely clear I am in quarantine not because I have arrived back from the Canaries but because I am now resident in what these people call a "an at-risk country" the UK.

[Expressflight]

Yes, I'm serious. The regulations apply whether you consider them reasonable or not. Their reasonableness is, of course, something for discussion and you may be right in your views about that, but that was not the subject of my post.

[homonculus]

If the National Contact Tracing Centre is unable to contact you via 3 phone calls or an email in order to provide you with public health advice and support during your period of stay in your specified premises, Public Health Scotland is obliged to share your contact details with Police Scotland who will continue with the follow-up process to engage, explain, encourage, and enforce the law, where necessary."

Am I the only person who has a phone that receives voice and emails anywhere in the UK and not just at a particular address?

[OC37]

"seems a reasonable amount of effort to me",are you serious? I came from the canary island archipelago which has had 162 deaths to the UK archipelago which has had 41000+.So to be absolutely clear I am in quarantine not because I have arrived back from the Canaries but because I am now resident in what these people call a "an at-risk country" the UK.

Why not just play the game whether you/we agree with it or not, if we all tow the line and work together perhaps, just perhaps, we shall get thru this sooner rather than later.

[DaveReidUK]

Am I the only person who has a phone that receives voice and emails anywhere in the UK and not just at a particular address?

If you're able to receive calls and email without the network provider having a pretty good idea of your whereabouts then, yes, you probably are the only person who can do that.

[BA318]

If you're able to receive calls and email without the network provider having a pretty good idea of your whereabouts then, yes, you probably are the only person who can do that.

As far as I’m aware that information isn’t shared or requested. I’ve been exempt from the quarantine based on my weekly commuting but my wife and daughter just finished their two weeks quarantine after visiting from Sweden. Not a single call or text.

[Del Prado]

Last week Spain had over 18,000 new cases. An estimated (by test, track and trace) 163 of those were ‘imported’.

So if Spain had quarantined new arrivals over the past three weeks they would have cut new cases by less than 1%.

Quarantine makes such little difference it’s simply not worth it but it does poll well..