Is the GA training industry walking blindfold over a cliff?

[LexAir]

Recently I was conversing with a senior instructor at a major GA school and that person was ebullient about how busy the school is, which is great for now. But nobody seems to be talking about the elephant in the room: What is going to happen to the GA training industry in Australia after the current batch of international airline cadets, being trained at the major schools, graduate?

After the current trainees have graduated and with the international borders still closed, how are the major schools going to survive until the borders reopen?

When the borders reopen, will the Chinese, in particular, still send us students or is the geopolitical situation going to work against us?

[mindsneak]

Recently I was conversing with a senior instructor at a major GA school and that person was ebullient about how busy the school is, which is great for now. But nobody seems to be talking about the elephant in the room: What is going to happen to the GA training industry in Australia after the current batch of international airline cadets, being trained at the major schools, graduate?

After the current trainees have graduated and with the international borders still closed, how are the major schools going to survive until the borders reopen?

When the borders reopen, will the Chinese, in particular, still send us students or is the geopolitical situation going to work against us?

I personally think that the major GA schools will survive until the borders re-open regardless of what China may or may not do once the international borders re-open. I would even go as far as to make an educated guess that China would still send students to us once the borders reopen because the geopolitical situation is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be.

By the time borders reopen enough time will have passed for them to send students here should they choose to. Even if the worse case scenario happened and they stopped sending Chinese pilots to Australia for flight training I am sure that it would still not spell the end of the big schools.

There will always be plenty of aspiring pilots in Australia wanting to learn to fly.

[Bodie1]

Unless new batches of Chinese students are sent out shortly, the 'major' schools, that is, the schools employing truckloads of instructors will start to wind down. I would say that the students already in the pipeline are enough to keep the industry ticking over but I reckon we'll be seeing parents and careers advisors talking kids out of this industry for the time being.

[dr dre]

I would say that the students already in the pipeline are enough to keep the industry ticking over but I reckon we'll be seeing parents and careers advisors talking kids out of this industry for the time being.

Plus those who would possibly be looking at PPL for leisure flying decreasing due to an economic downturn and preserving cash. Overseas students should be the saviour for Australian GA instructing. Chinese domestic carriers are already on the path to returning to 2019 levels. Pilots who begin their screening and application for training now will be ready in 2-3 years time when this downturn will be over. It should be a priority for those who are invested in the future of Australian GA to lobby as hard as possible to retain and grow the foreign flight training industry. Because there are other places in the world which are suitable for flight training, Australia doesn't have a monopoly on it in any way.

[mindsneak]

Unless new batches of Chinese students are sent out shortly, the 'major' schools, that is, the schools employing truckloads of instructors will start to wind down. I would say that the students already in the pipeline are enough to keep the industry ticking over but I reckon we'll be seeing parents and careers advisors talking kids out of this industry for the time being.

I would be very disappointed if parents and career advisors started talking kids out of the industry just because of what is happening in the world right now.

I personally feel that part of the problem is the big emphasis that is placed on careers in the airlines. I completely understand why this is, however I feel that the benefits of working in general aviation especially in regional Australia is quite often overlooked. Lifestyle benefits that you would never get working for an airline in a major city. Now is actually a perfect time for parents and career advisors to be actually encouraging kids to instead consider life long careers in general aviation and for the government to take concrete action in making general aviation business operations more commercially viable. If they started to do this then the pipeline will continue to tick over regardless of what is happening with international borders.

[Bodie1]

Personally, I think the industry as a whole will rebound, it'll take a while. The shortages in the US are structural, they will be there again, but when? Is the big question. And there's no doubt that the Chinese take a different view to training in downturns. The problem is getting the cadets into the country I would imagine?

The time to train is at the bottom of the curve, be ready for the next uptake. But that won't stop people from panicking and talking little Johnny out of the aviation industry.

[Ascend Charlie]

Are these chinese students training to Australian licence standards? Or do they follow a syllabus laid out by their bosses, but do not attempt a licence test here?

[Mumbai Merlin]

Ascend; think carefully.
If you think our RAAF fighter pilots are any better than a Chinese Air Force pilot; think again.
Culture, status, pride, government directives will drive the Chinese students towards excellence.
We are going to have a new Northern neighbor very soon. The PNG is selling out to the Chinese 'Belts and Roads' projects. Napoleon found it was very difficult to cross the English Channel. The Japanese found it was all too hard to cross the Owen Stanley's. The Chinese will do it easily!

[Guptar]

https://tfipost.com/2020/05/chinese-army-is-full-of-wimps-sissies-little-emperors-we-are-not-saying-this-this-is-what-china-thinks/

Chinese army is full of wimps, sissies & little emperors. We are not saying this. This is what China thinks



[Lookleft]

MM you dont work for the Labor party do you? The Victorian government is selling out to the Bib and Braces project, do you think the PLA will find it any easier to invade Australia through the back door. Culture, status ,pride government directive will drive the Chinese student to what ever standard the CCP requires of them, no more, no less. Unless the PLA has developed the ability to teleport they will find the tyranny of distance as insurmountable as Napoleon and Adolf found in Russia if they want to invade and colonise Australia.

[Sunfish]

What lookleft said. Russia has “general winter” Australia has “general summer”.

[dr dre]

So is it part of Belt and Road for China to come to Australia and invest in Australian GA training when no Aussies seem to want to, and provide jobs for hundreds of Australian flying instructors? Does part of the BRI involve turning disused strips of gravel like Merredin into world class aviation training aerodromes? If so sign us all up. They pull out and a whole bunch of Australian flying instructors (all of them at the start of their careers which I suspect very few posters here are) lose their jobs.

We already have far too many Australian pilots unemployed in 2020, and I don't want any more. I don't care about point scoring politics (no do the instructors and students at these schools), let us train as many as possible.

Are these chinese students training to Australian licence standards? Or do they follow a syllabus laid out by their bosses, but do not attempt a licence test here?


It would of course vary from school to school but here's the details at one of the most prominent:

Integrated Commercial Pilot Licence (http://www.cswafc.com.au/students/integrated-commercial-pilot-licence/)

They are trained to at least minimum CASA standards in conjunction with the CAAC. The flying training and instructors are regulated under Australian regs. All licence testing is done in the country. All that flight and ground training, testing, engineering and support keeps hundreds of Aussies employed in Aviation at the moment. Importantly, a lot of those in rural Australia.

[Lookleft]

The CCP has demonstrated that they cannot be trusted to be fair and reasonable when it comes to trade. Acceptance of the Bib and Braces program comes with very thick strings attached. If a country doesn't accept that the economic benefits requires subservience and a gag on any criticism of the great and benevolent CCP then the strings are cut. Students from China will be sent to Australia while ever it suits the CCP but it will be politics that stops that flow as a "punishment" for speaking out against China.

[thorn bird]

"Are these chinese students training to Australian licence standards? Or do they follow a syllabus laid out by their bosses, but do not attempt a licence test here?"

Aside from being very expensive, exactly what makes Australian "Standards" so much better than anyone else?

[mindsneak]

"Are these chinese students training to Australian licence standards? Or do they follow a syllabus laid out by their bosses, but do not attempt a licence test here?"

Aside from being very expensive, exactly what makes Australian "Standards" so much better than anyone else?

I am speculating that one of the main reasons why China sends their flight students to Australia is because ICAO legally requires pilots to be fluent to at least a Level 4 language proficiency standard. They would easily achieve this language standard by sending them to an english speaking country in order to train. If they work on their language skills while they are here by being immersed in the culture they should easily meet the language standard and will ultimately make it easier on themselves in the long run as it is a good way to consolidate their language skills.

[Bodie1]

I'm speculating too, in that it's a numbers game. Other countries are used for their training capability not just Australia. China is also developing its GA capability, once they can train their own I'd suspect that Australia will be dumped like a steaming turd.

[Karunch]

"Are these chinese students training to Australian licence standards? Or do they follow a syllabus laid out by their bosses, but do not attempt a licence test here?"

Aside from being very expensive, exactly what makes Australian "Standards" so much better than anyone else?

I comment having spent the last 10 years working with the end product in a PRC airline environment.

The outsourced training is conducted in the USA, Canada & Australia. The offshore trained pilots are trained to a significantly higher standard than those internally trained, and English communication is very much second nature to them by then. The offshore trained pilots continue to improve at a greater rate after training as such things as Fcom, Jeppesen & ATC are within their comprehension. They are also more likely to ask questions. The Australian license is viewed as a difficult one to obtain by the Chinese pilots.

Our biggest assets are the low dollar & Chinese owned flying schools. These far outweigh any short term disputes between the two countries and withdrawal of training from Australia would be punishing the Chinese flying school owners, many of whom are influential.

Chinese airlines moving Chinese passengers to foreign countries is big business & whilst still cyclical, is less dependent on the economic health of the destination countries than western airlines. They will rebound quickly once border restrictions are eased & the internal demand for pilots will continue for some time.

[aroa]

I wouldnt rely on General Summer to do the job here, plenty of extremely hot desert areas in China.
General Winter in Russia is a much more severe and longer term unit.
Data is king and Cyber warefare can do a lot of damage from afar anyway. Those advances on Moscow and retreats are now in the history..books.
The worry is the Emporer for Life, raving nationalism and territorial ambitions . Sound familiar ?

There are many very smart people in Oz in electronics,rocketry and hypersonics. We need our own industry cranking out those stand-off weapons for air and sea , because when the balloon goes up, supply links will be cut.
And even that guy with the funny haircut in North Korea has lCBMs that can reach here, how do we retaliate to that ?
At the moment I think we are ready now for WW2, then as now we are woefully underprepared.
2c
And to stay on topic. I can thank those very experienced Instructors of yesteryear, hoary old WW2 guys who imparted their skills and experience,,,, all gained in the school of very hard knocks.
Not so sure about some of the very young, no real world experience folk about these days. Its a worry.

[Lookleft]

I don't think that with the C19 pandemic going on with the destruction of jobs and income that we can say that the young have no real world experience. They are getting it in spades.

I wouldnt rely on General Summer to do the job here, plenty of extremely hot desert areas in China.
General Winter in Russia is a much more severe and longer term unit.

The only modern equivalent that you can make a comparison to the effect of trying to cross the desert is the Western Desert campaign in WW2. Most of the action was on the coastal strip of Africa and not in the interior. If the PLA wanted to land in the north and traverse the desert they would have to cover an area much much bigger than the Gobi desert. As far as I know a winter can be just as long and as severe as a summer. Logisitics was the problem for the Germans and the French (and the armies in North Africa), as it would be for the PLA crossing the GAFA.

[dr dre]

And to stay on topic. I can thank those very experienced Instructors of yesteryear, hoary old WW2 guys who imparted their skills and experience,,,, all gained in the school of very hard knocks.
Not so sure about some of the very young, no real world experience folk about these days. Its a worry.

Oh C’mon, the WW2 generation was mostly retired or flying airliners not instructing by the 70s. I’ve been hearing the “young guys with no experience can’t instruct” line since at least the 90s. Therefore the last 30 years, and if you start flight training at 20 that means at least anyone under 50, which would be the bulk of today’s professional pilots. Aircraft don’t seem to be dropping out of the sky on a regular basis.

Just another “kids these days” myth methinks......

[aroa]

well, I did say 'some;..not all painted with the same brush. But some sprog, just off the books, regurgitating the books and the training tick box exercises..then imho its deficient.
A yound CPL who goes out and works for job under all conditions , making all the hard decisions and getting the frights and flying experience..then they have some practical as opposed to just theoretical knowlege to impart,
Better for the student in my book.
People bust aircraft because they dont know what they dont know. As a few bent aircraft locally showed ...the result of poor training?
And the WW2 gen...not in my day they werent