Geoffrey Thomas has predicted the Virgin Owner

[chance]

The Perth aviation journalist Geoffrey Thomas has picked Cyrus as the new owners on VA because of their connection in backing the starting of Virgin America as reported in a live IV on Channel 7 News.
V America no longer exists as Alaskan absorbed them and the shaggy white knight could not negotiate his flagship brand on the tail.
But GT is the luminary of aviation journalism in Australia so we shall have to wait and see if his predictive powers are correct.

[Buttscratcher]

PLACEHOLDER:

(I'm just gonna come back here in a month or so and edit this into something insightful and hilarious)

[Capt Fathom]

There is a full moon at present!

[ozbiggles]

Wow, he made a prediction in a two horse race, gutsy call.

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Spare me. With nothing really going on in the industry he was probably desperate for air time. He’s got a 50% chance of guessing right.

I’d give more credence to Rabio the octopus’ guess.

[Best Rate]

We should ask Punxsutawney Phil ! 🦡

I know doomsday folks on the forum would be discreetly pleased to see VA fail, but unfortunately for the catastrophists amongst us, it’s looking like a measured, potentially very successful transition through administration..

Stay strong and positive VA staff - even with some inevitable reduction in fleet sizes, VA Mk2 will be there for the years to come ✌️

[Double_Clutch]

Can GT now share this Saturday’s Lotto numbers?

[ozbiggles]

He can only predict that if the numbers are 1 and 2.

[N4sir]

Based on form I’d say GT has picked the rank outsider. CCP $6 Billion in prize money, Bain Capital $155 Billion in prize money. I’d know which horse I would be backing.

[No Idea Either]

We should ask Punxsutawney Phil ! 🦡

Best Rate

That’s GOLD.......

[mrs nomer]

Punxsutawney Phil

aka Groundhog Day - very true

[galdian]

Wow, he made a prediction in a two horse race, gutsy call.

No it's a three horse race - no new owners possible, likely/unlikely depends on your perspective and just how many nasties the administrators continue to find/spin.

[On eyre]

No it's a three horse race - no new owners possible, likely/unlikely depends on your perspective and just how many nasties the administrators continue to find/spin.

Yes and my money is still on that third horse unfortunately 😳

[vee1-rotate]

I'm putting my life savings on a bet that it will be either Bain or Cyrus. I think my odds are pretty good.


/End sarcasm

[Snakecharma]

International aviation expert and soothsayer Thomas Geoffrey today predicted that there was a reasonably good chance that if Virgin Australia was sold it would be to a buyer.

Using my deep and insiteful knowledge of all things aviation, I confidently predict that something could definitely happen.

If you review my website CRAPA you will see that I have previously predicted that things might happen and something did indeed happen, mostly not what I predicted, but let’s not quibble over the small stuff.

[hoss]

My money is on Cyrus Capital getting up.👍

[industry insider]

Isn't there still the small matter of an additional $200m "bridging" required to sustain VA between end June and mid August when the deal with any new owner is financially settled?

[Pundit]

I guess GT's selection is what Qantas thinks!

[sumtingwong]

GT couldn’t predict his local bin night.

[Buster Hyman]

GT couldn’t predict his local bin night.
If it wasn't for Bin night, I'd have no idea where I was in the week during this stand down!!!

[Boeingpilot738]

If it wasn't for Bin night, I'd have no idea where I was in the week during this stand down!!!

Phew....I’m glad it’s not just me.

[Turnleft080]

I wonder if all you people would show the same disrespect if you met him in person. He has been writing on
aviation for over 40 years. At least give him that.

[sumtingwong]

I wonder if all you people would show the same disrespect if you met him in person. He has been writing on
aviation for over 40 years. At least give him that.

I tried writing a novel for 10 years. It took me that long to realise my writing was rubbish.
What’s GT’s excuse after 40?

[SOPS]

I wonder if all you people would show the same disrespect if you met him in person. He has been writing on
aviation for over 40 years. At least give him that.

You mean the man that sat in a 777 ‘ mock up’ at Jandakot and told the world.. “ I’m in the only 777 simulator in Australia”.. while Virgin has a proper one in Brisbane? GT writes mostly fantasy.

[Going Boeing]

I wonder if all you people would show the same disrespect if you met him in person. He has been writing on
aviation for over 40 years. At least give him that.

In his early days GT's work wasn't bad but, infortunately, he was seduced by greed, power & position. He's now easily bought through "cash for comment" and Chairman's Lounge access.

[Blueskymine]

You mean the man that sat in a 777 ‘ mock up’ at Jandakot and told the world.. “ I’m in the only 777 simulator in Australia”.. while Virgin has a proper one in Brisbane? GT writes mostly fantasy.


Oh yes, the park brake is off...

[Snakecharma]

Was that the one that had the caption which said “the Boeing 777 has difficulty maintaining altitude when it has run out of fuel”?

I though that was priceless.

Despite me taking the piss a little earlier I think that he isn’t that bad but he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. What is obvious to many on this forum because of our background and experience isn’t necessarily obvious to journos or “lay” people, though I have an enormous amount of time for Jeff Watson.

In this day and age where company PR machines are so well organised and spin well spun (sorry) it is easy to be sucked into regurgitating a lot of what you are fed. In my opinion that is probably his biggest failing.

That said many of us here, myself included, don’t know what we don’t know and what seems obvious to us as aeroplane drivers is sometimes ignorant of the bigger picture, so to a certain extent we are people in glass houses.

[itsnotthatbloodyhard]

Was that the one that had the caption which said “the Boeing 777 has difficulty maintaining altitude when it has run out of fuel”?

I though that was priceless.



No, that was CNN - nothing to do with GT. Still priceless though.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/600x450/515a63db_9083_4152_a653_01c63cc3c8c7_7567e88dc4040bfa7b31344 a911a9421998879fe.jpeg

[Green.Dot]

Thread drift but some more quality reporting on a 777 worthy of a revisit!

https://youtu.be/L1JYHNX8pdo

[sumtingwong]

Despite me taking the piss a little earlier I think that he isn’t that bad but he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.


I get what you’re saying Snake but his lack of any meaningful professional experience in what he claims loudly to be an expert on is kinda the point.

How do you reckon Doctors would go having a hospital orderly holding themselves up as, and commenting in the media as, a medical expert?

Lawyers with a law firm secretary?

Real Estate agents with some bloke who’s owned a house?

Mechanical engineers because they own a spanner?

’Journalists’ because you read a book on how to lie.

Really though, it’s our own fault. Can you imagine the AMA allowing a hospital orderly to comment on, let alone be touted as an expert in ANY medical matter for example?

That’s what GT does, and that’s what this industry allows him to do.

[morno]

I wonder if all you people would show the same disrespect if you met him in person. He has been writing on
aviation for over 40 years. At least give him that.

Oh **** yes, I’d have no hesitation telling him what a f***ing numpty he is

[tdracer]

In the immediate aftermath of Asiana crashed while landing at SFO, I turned the TV to a news channel (something I almost never do since they mainly report rubbish, but I wanted the latest breaking news of the event).
About the time they managed to extinguish all the flames, they quoted an aviation 'expert' as sayin 'it was obvious that the plane had crashed because the tail broke off'.
I almost threw something at the TV set.:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Arnold E]

it was obvious that the plane had crashed because the tail broke off'.

Maybe this statement wouldn't look quite so bad if an apostrophe was added in the appropriate place, poor editing if that is the case though

[neville_nobody]

I get what you’re saying Snake but his lack of any meaningful professional experience in what he claims loudly to be an expert on is kinda the point.

How do you reckon Doctors would go having a hospital orderly holding themselves up as, and commenting in the media as, a medical expert?

Lawyers with a law firm secretary?

Real Estate agents with some bloke who’s owned a house?

Mechanical engineers because they own a spanner?

’Journalists’ because you read a book on how to lie.

Really though, it’s our own fault. Can you imagine the AMA allowing a hospital orderly to comment on, let alone be touted as an expert in ANY medical matter for example?

That’s what GT does, and that’s what this industry allows him to do.

Very true. The problem in aviation is that Pilot's have no influence in the industry, it has been hijacked by the regulator and large corporations. Basically a power vacuum has occurred and the void is filled by people who will do the bidding of the the corporations or the regulator with no real understanding of the industry. The difference with medicine is that essentially it is controlled completely by the AMA and the college of surgeons who also have representation in both the Liberal and Labor Parties, both of whom won't have the courage to stand up to them. If a corporate mouth pipes up in the media they can be shot down pretty quickly by the AMA who can then run their agenda. However in Australia any so called aviation expert can get free reign in the press presenting bogus or biased reporting as noone will challenge it. I would also imagine there is a fair bit of collusion and quid pro quo between the media and airlines about anything aviation related. I would guess that Mr Thomas would be on a very leash about what he can and can't say.
For example you will never hear him pipe up about RPT ops into CTAFS as the airlines don't won't someone pubically discussing an increase in the cost of operating.

[tdracer]

it was obvious that the plane had crashed because the tail broke off'.

Maybe this statement wouldn't look quite so bad if an apostrophe was added in the appropriate place, poor editing if that is the case though
Arnold, listening to it live (it's been long enough I don't recall exact words) it was clear that he was saying the tail breaking off was the cause of the crash - not the result of the crash. Pretty much as I was hearing this I was looking at aerial views of the tail and debris field - and it was bleeding obvious that there had been some sort of impact that had caused the tail to depart.
Besides, it doesn't take an aeronautical background to know that if the tail had broken off on final, the crash would have been far worse (not to mention, why exactly would the tail fail just prior to touchdown on a calm summer day?). It was quite simply one of the most preposterous things I've ever heard on TV news (and I've heard some whoppers).
Granted, some of the eye witness reports that the aircraft had 'flipped over' seemed rather preposterous at the time, but at least became understandable when video of the event surfaced.
Anyway, my opinion of news channel "expert commentary" was never very high, but after that it was pretty much zero. If I can readily see how pathetic their experts are when they talk about something where I have some knowledge, why should I expect it to be any better when they are talking about things I don't have knowledge of?

[MelbourneFlyer]

The Perth aviation journalist Geoffrey Thomas has picked Cyrus as the new owners on VA because of their connection in backing the starting of Virgin America as reported in a live IV on Channel 7 News.
V America no longer exists as Alaskan absorbed them and the shaggy white knight could not negotiate his flagship brand on the tail.
But GT is the luminary of aviation journalism in Australia so we shall have to wait and see if his predictive powers are correct.

Cyrus has a good chance and is sees as less predatory than Bain, especially as Bain is rumoured to be looking to make Virgin Australia more like Virgin Blue and has ex-JQ CEO Jayne Hrdlicka on its team. But all the same GT has 50% chance on this, it's a coin toss, and if he gets it right then he will be telling EVERYONE how he tipped it etc, even though it's just a heads or tails guess at the moment.

[Buster Hyman]

it's just a heads or tails guess at the moment.
So, who are we all picking in this 'showdown'? Where does the esteemed patronage of PPRUNE sit in this coin toss?

I'm thinking Cyrus too. Mainly because the company has invested so much in matching QF that they'd never get that 'premium' loyalty back if they abandoned it.

[Atlas Shrugged]

I've heard that he's actually paid nothing..... which values his input quite accurately.

[On eyre]

Oh to wax allegorical after a slightly boozy lunch -
The stupidist bird in the world is the seagull, to quote:-" The seagull. The worst bird on earth, and it’s not even close. Say what you will about pigeons, they at least add some practical value to the world. You can eat them. You can train them to send coded messages across enemy lines. You can keep them as pets on a rooftop, Mike Tyson–style. They’re useful scavengers. Seagulls, on the other hand, are the worst. Every boardwalk in America is ruined by their presence. All I wanted to do was eat an ice cream cone. Now I’m in the middle of a goddamn Hitchcock movie. We should nuke the seagulls. "

Does Cyrus and Bain come to mind here ?

And the smartest bird ? The Crow of course.
Every Ozzie knows it is impossible to shoot a Crow let alone run one over on the road. The cunning buggers know to leave the carcase alone when vehicles approach to return to get nourishment at a safer time.
So to take the allegory a bit further, who is the Crow in this case ? Don't know yet but all Crows are bits of darkness and love saying "Fark"em.
You have been warned. Roll on liquidation time.
Guess I should have a strong black coffee now to become a hyperactive drunk.
Cheers
I should add I have friends in Virgin, wish them well, but don't see the present pair of protagonists providing a very satisfying result. But like GT I could be wrong.

[Icarus2001]

I've heard that he's actually paid nothing..... which values his input quite accurately.

Given his profile on the West Australian newspaper page, I doubt that is true.

https://thewest.com.au/profile/geoffrey-thomas

[FFG 02]

Thread drift but some more quality reporting on a 777 worthy of a revisit!

https://youtu.be/L1JYHNX8pdo


Most pilots have seen the above post by Green Dot. Do you know a couple of days later there was Southwest aircraft that had landing gear issues?
The Korean's got their own back...
"It looks like a Korean news agency is having some fun at KTVU’s expense. After the landing gear failure of the Southwest flight at LGA they showed this graphic with American pilot names “Captain Kent Parker Wright”, “Co-Captain Wyatt Wooden Workman”.

They even went as far as making up fake names for people to interview. Flight instructor “Heywood U. Flye-Moore” and skeptical passenger “Macy Lawyers”.
https://jerz.setonhill.edu/blog/2013/07/28/korean-news-station-pokes-fun-at-ktvu-with-fake-american-pilot-names-after-southwest-airlines-landing-gear-failure-slothed/

[MelbourneFlyer]

Given his profile on the West Australian newspaper page, I doubt that is true.
https://thewest.com.au/profile/geoffrey-thomas

Ignore the puffy profile. My understanding is that GT was let go from The West many years back after 7West bankrolled his wesbite with a massive loan, then after several years it was still running at a loss and 7West was in financial trouble so it demanded its money back. GT was somehow able to hoodwink convince some wealthy avgeeks to put up the money to repay 7West. However some arrangement remained in place to have GT write for The West for a small retainer or to supply content for free from AirlineRatings, but he is definitely not on salary, doesn't have a full-time job there. AirlineRatings is also in a mess, a few months ago it let go of all staff except for GT and his wife, both of whom still draw salary from the site as far as I know.

[DanV2]

Most pilots have seen the above post by Green Dot. Do you know a couple of days later there was Southwest aircraft that had landing gear issues?
The Korean's got their own back...
"It looks like a Korean news agency is having some fun at KTVU’s expense. After the landing gear failure of the Southwest flight at LGA they showed this graphic with American pilot names “Captain Kent Parker Wright”, “Co-Captain Wyatt Wooden Workman”.

They even went as far as making up fake names for people to interview. Flight instructor “Heywood U. Flye-Moore” and skeptical passenger “Macy Lawyers”.
https://jerz.setonhill.edu/blog/2013/07/28/korean-news-station-pokes-fun-at-ktvu-with-fake-american-pilot-names-after-southwest-airlines-landing-gear-failure-slothed/

If I recall correctly, that was a Korean Parody making fun of the American news agency getting those pilots names wrong.

[On eyre]

Oh to wax allegorical after a slightly boozy lunch -
The stupidist bird in the world is the seagull, to quote:-" The seagull. The worst bird on earth, and it’s not even close. Say what you will about pigeons, they at least add some practical value to the world. You can eat them. You can train them to send coded messages across enemy lines. You can keep them as pets on a rooftop, Mike Tyson–style. They’re useful scavengers. Seagulls, on the other hand, are the worst. Every boardwalk in America is ruined by their presence. All I wanted to do was eat an ice cream cone. Now I’m in the middle of a goddamn Hitchcock movie. We should nuke the seagulls. "

Does Cyrus and Bain come to mind here ?

And the smartest bird ? The Crow of course.
Every Ozzie knows it is impossible to shoot a Crow let alone run one over on the road. The cunning buggers know to leave the carcase alone when vehicles approach to return to get nourishment at a safer time.
So to take the allegory a bit further, who is the Crow in this case ? Don't know yet but all Crows are bits of darkness and love saying "Fark"em.
You have been warned. Roll on liquidation time.
Guess I should have a strong black coffee now to become a hyperactive drunk.
Cheers
I should add I have friends in Virgin, wish them well, but don't see the present pair of protagonists providing a very satisfying result. But like GT I could be wrong.

I haven’t been to Singapore but looks like they have Crows over there 🤪🤪

[mostlytossas]

Well GT got that one wrong!

[galdian]

So now it's down to a two horse race.

[MickG0105]

Well GT got that one wrong!
You would save time and keystrokes by just posting when he's right about something.

[mostlytossas]

True, a self proclaimed expert!

[Section28- BE]

PLACEHOLDER:

(I'm just gonna come back here in a month or so and edit this into something insightful and hilarious)

Reckon- he shall be along soon........... tic-toc, tic-toc........

Rgds
S28

[Blueskymine]

But he will come out now and say he knew all along Bain would be the winner.

[airdualbleedfault]

I'm not sure about Bain being the "winner", they were the only one left :cool:

[MickG0105]

I'm not sure about Bain being the "winner", they were the only one left :cool:
You reckon they did a Bradbury?

[Buster Hyman]

You reckon they did a Bradbury?
I think that part will be played by Deloitte!!!:ok:

[MickG0105]

I think that part will be played by Deloitte!!!:ok:
Yes, good call. They'll be the only ones going home from this outing with gold.

Cyrus will still be looking for their dummy.

[normanton]

Bain are probably thinking "oh ****".

[No Idea Either]

I think....that you think......oh ****, Normanton. Might hold up that command further my friend.

[On eyre]

The large female ain’t singing yet 😳

[No Idea Either]

No she ain’t, but it is a big step in the right direction IMHO.

[slice]

Why would Bain be thinking “oh ****”. They put 60 analysts, financiers, accountants, and lawyers onto this project for weeks. The unsecured bond holders seem to be scrambling for a better deal but looks like they were not organised enough. They ‘might’ be able to sink it with a vote at the second creditors meeting but it looks as though they will get even less out of the subsequent liquidation.

[bentleg]

I've heard that he's actually paid nothing..... which values his input quite accurately.

He gets a lot of free flights from Qantas. He is always there when they pick up a new plane or do something they want publicity for.

I wonder why he is never critical of Qantas......