Will you ever go back to Aviation?

[Skippy69]

Hi all,
So, like many, I lost my dream job, though was only newly checked to line and still very few hours on my jet type, now I'm looking at trying to get back into GA eventually or even for an airline again- anywhere in the world- but with all these super experienced people out of work, what are those of you thought's on people going back into the business? (Personally I would think that many of the older heads may leave to not come back??) The foreseeable future- and how things are going to be when the new normal will be up and running? ie; no social distancing etc...

Not looking to start fights or anything, but just throwing it out there??

[Mach E Avelli]

Personal opinion only, not based on any research, just gut feel:

Pilots over age 60 who do not have seniority-protected status mostly won't get back into the game for various reasons.
1. They don't want the hassle of all the revalidation training and checks that will be required
2. Some (not all), who have been hanging on at minimum standard anyway, simply won't make the grade
3. They have found that they rather like golf five days a week, tinkering with old cars, sailing, playing with the grandchildren
4. Those who in the past have rolled over and only kept flying to pay off multiple ex-wives will say "enough" to the lawyers and simply default on their alimony
]5. Recognition of dwindling years remaining to complete bucket list items will motivate some to take off to wherever the above-mentioned lawyers can't touch them anyway (I am told one can live well and cheaply in Costa Rica)

At the other end of the experience/age spectrum: for a low-hour 'newbie' it is certainly not rosy in the short to mid term, with so many experienced pilots available who will crawl over broken glass and sell their mother-in-law as a sex slave for an airline flying job. This won't be lost on airline managements who will exploit it to the max. At what point will airline recruitment and conditions start to favor low time pilots? It seems no one really knows - guesstimates seem to vary from no less than two years to five or more years.

I always recommend that a pilot determined to remain in the game during any downturn must be prepared to fall back on any G.A. job going, as current experience wins over someone with two or three years of sitting on the beach hoping for a gig. The worse the location (forget that nice city or coastal resort town), the older the equipment (40 year old clunkers rock), the tougher the employer (the tough ones in GA tend to remain in business), the better your chances of a job.

Good luck, don't give up just yet!

[ShyTorque]

Just gut feel....you’re not over 60.

[Mach E Avelli]

I wish that were the case....!
I know one sad individual aged 60-something who was not protected by seniority. He has not flown for some time, yet he fantasises that his flying days are not over. Unless he can afford his own private aircraft, they are.
I know another of similar age who would be highly unlikely to pass his next check ride, should one ever be offered. He simply can’t accept that he was in decline before being stood down. A year on the beach will be great for his blood pressure but won’t do much for his flying skills. He would be wise to avoid humiliation by going gracefully.
Elsewhere in these forums is much vitriol between millennials and boomers, which the O.P. isn’t seeking to ignite here, so let’s leave that one out of it and perhaps debate a newbie’ s options in these uncertain times.
Now, how soon can I travel to Costa Rica?

[krismiler]

A 35 year old Captain is likely to be in the best position when it comes to reemployment, he would have a reasonable level of experience, still be sharp and keen and have 30 years of work ahead of him. It will be difficult to justify spending a large sum of money on someone who's 60+ and likely to retire in a few years time. After the cherries have been picked it will come down to age/experience/currency as companies will be looking to get the most from a pilot whilst spending the least on him.

Basically younger pilots on or above the experience graph whose last flight wasn't too long ago will be first in line. Those without too many years left who haven't flown for so long that their ratings have lapsed will be last in line. Newbies may have a bit of a wait ahead of them but time is on their side, remaining current as far as possible and being ready jump at the first chance they get are the keys to getting back in the door.

I knew a pilot who waited nine years for his first job and went on to become Chief Pilot with a major company.

[Sunfish]

Indications are that RAA/SAAA aircraft kit and associated equipment orders are way up in the last few months. The alleged buyers are older airline pilots who figure that they will not be returning to airline flying. They are finishing existing projects or starting new ones.

[machtuk]

Those smart enough in the early years had other skills behind them, that corny old saying always applies sometime in ones life.....never put all your eggs in one basket.....good advice for the youngins' getting into the uncertainty of commercial flying!
As for the original question? Well a little revolution can be a healthy thing sometines-)

[DHC8 Driver]

With dark clouds brewing on the northern horizon, anyone young enough and with the skills and required education who really wants to fly should be applying to the Air Force. I’m sure they must be or soon will be recruiting intensively.

[junior.VH-LFA]

With dark clouds brewing on the northern horizon, anyone young enough and with the skills and required education who really wants to fly should be applying to the Air Force. I’m sure they must be or soon will be recruiting intensively.

Why?

Air Force has just had a load of airline guys flood back into the service, along with the overall realisation amongst the pilot workforce that leaving to fly anywhere else other than a few niche roles is a fruitless endevour. The RAAF will no doubt keep recruiting at the exact same pace it always has, knowing that retention of it's people is likely to be at record levels for the next 3-5 years at least. Regardless of whats happening in the Pacific, there are enough pilots to put on all the seats of the RAAF's fleet. For a recruiting expansion there would have to be a fleet expansion, and that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

[oldm8ey]

Why?

Air Force has just had a load of airline guys flood back into the service

Yep, can confirm.

[LostWanderer]

I know for myself and a large number of my fellow Australian pilots who have been made redundant or likely to be in the near future, regardless of if we want to believe it, the pointy end of a jet just probably won’t happen for a very long time in Australia and most parts of the world for us and some, maybe never.

There are far too many highly qualified guys willing to do anything to get back in as previously pointed out and the demand just is not going to be there for everyone to do so.

Yes its terrible. But gotta face facts. A few hundred or even a few thousand hours in a 320 or 737 right seat isn’t going to mean anything at all when you consider how many guys will be on the market with a lot more from all over the world, not just down unda.

[ShyTorque]

I wish that were the case....!
I know one sad individual aged 60-something who was not protected by seniority. He has not flown for some time, yet he fantasises that his flying days are not over. Unless he can afford his own private aircraft, they are.
I know another of similar age who would be highly unlikely to pass his next check ride, should one ever be offered. He simply can’t accept that he was in decline before being stood down. A year on the beach will be great for his blood pressure but won’t do much for his flying skills. He would be wise to avoid humiliation by going gracefully.
Elsewhere in these forums is much vitriol between millennials and boomers, which the O.P. isn’t seeking to ignite here, so let’s leave that one out of it and perhaps debate a newbie’ s options in these uncertain times.
Now, how soon can I travel to Costa Rica?

Thankfully, there’s more to aviation than the airlines.

[Slezy9]

Why?

Air Force has just had a load of airline guys flood back into the service, along with the overall realisation amongst the pilot workforce that leaving to fly anywhere else other than a few niche roles is a fruitless endevour. The RAAF will no doubt keep recruiting at the exact same pace it always has, knowing that retention of it's people is likely to be at record levels for the next 3-5 years at least. Regardless of whats happening in the Pacific, there are enough pilots to put on all the seats of the RAAF's fleet. For a recruiting expansion there would have to be a fleet expansion, and that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

I agree that there will be no real change in the amount of people recruited. However, I would imagine that for those in their mid to early 20's the RAAF will have become much more attractive. Perhaps the RAAF will see a higher quality candidate walk through the door? Nothing like a good crisis to turn people to the military for job security!

[Duck Pilot]

There is more to life than aviation. The reality is that a lot of pilots will probably never get re-employed as a pilot again, which I assume is going to effect all age groups and experience levels.

Couple this with the fact that some operators will use this crisis as a catalyst to degrade salaries and conditions.

There are still quite a few pilots out there who have been stood down who are in denial of reality, based on the regular correspondence I’m getting from some of my colleagues.

Solution is the look beyond aviation, diversify and up skill if required. Also probably requires a bit of thinking outside of the square for some.

[Half Baked]

Agree with just about everything you've said Duck.

However, make no mistake. Once the first operator exploits this situation and lowers the bar for T&Cs, others and eventually all will follow. They'll have to in order to remain competitive.

i was actually in an EBA meeting just last week when the pilots' Log of Claims was tabled and the management chuffed and stated something along the lines of well you haven't seen ours yet and and I think you'll need a reality check very shortly!

Effectivley share markets around the world are down around 25%-30% and some so called "property experts" are predicting property values will head south @ 25%.

My gut feel is that salaries will follow and take @ 25% hit as well. It's all about supply versus demand, and there's not going to be any supply shortage any time soon, let alone much of a demand!

Just my two bobs worth of course.

Look after yourselves and fellow colleagues.

[Lapon]

I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse change now.

The quality of the new hire will improve, and all that really seems to happen in more prosperous times is that anyone with the ever reducing requirements seems to get a job.

A minority will find lucrative opportunities outside of aviation, but most will given a realization of how good they had it in aviation despite the many drawbacks.

[KRviator]

There's a few trainee train driver's jobs going round the country at the moment. :} Warwick (https://www.seek.com.au/job/41364142?type=standout#searchRequestToken=6d15a478-10f6-4c3c-bf88-f159a4c09d1a), Mackay (https://www.seek.com.au/job/41364116?type=standout#searchRequestToken=6d15a478-10f6-4c3c-bf88-f159a4c09d1a), Albany & Wagin (https://www.seek.com.au/job/41363720?type=standout#searchRequestToken=64099966-44fb-4108-b8f2-4bd99173bc82), Adelaide (https://www.seek.com.au/job/41358223?type=standout#searchRequestToken=64099966-44fb-4108-b8f2-4bd99173bc82), and Sydney Trains has been recruiting for trainee suburban guys too!

[finestkind]

I agree that there will be no real change in the amount of people recruited. However, I would imagine that for those in their mid to early 20's the RAAF will have become much more attractive. Perhaps the RAAF will see a higher quality candidate walk through the door? Nothing like a good crisis to turn people to the military for job security!

Slezy9. Interesting comment on "higher quality candidate". I can only take it that your inferring that higher quality aviation applicants go commercial.

[geeup]

[QUOTE=Lapon;10797958]I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse

Maybe not in OZ but expat around the world have taken hits to terms and conditions. China, the Pacific, UAE to name a few all getting BELTED and it’s only the beginning.

[Slezy9]

Slezy9. Interesting comment on "higher quality candidate". I can only take it that your inferring that higher quality aviation applicants go commercial.

Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

I think aviation in general has suffered over the past decades from a low level of interest. I think being a pilot is the best job out there, but it also has its downsides! I just wish I didn't love staring out the window so much!

[junior.VH-LFA]

Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

I think aviation in general has suffered over the past decades from a low level of interest. I think being a pilot is the best job out there, but it also has its downsides! I just wish I didn't love staring out the window so much!

I think there is a smaller percentage of young people these days willing to hand over control of their life for 11.5-14.5 years to the military. I can't blame them, with the options that were available only months ago within the industry, there were other avenues. People talk about HECS debt, but very few mention the burden of being told where to live, when to go on leave etc that comes with the military. Nothing is ever free!

[finestkind]

Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

I think aviation in general has suffered over the past decades from a low level of interest. I think being a pilot is the best job out there, but it also has its downsides! I just wish I didn't love staring out the window so much!

I agree that the numbers have declined coming through the doors and that with a lower number the likelihood of having quality candidates reduces but is maintained via entry requirements. But the RAAF have attempted to address this by changing the requirements for entry. This allows more applicants to progress to the selection process but whether this will translate to a greater graduation number of high quality candidates remains to be seen.

Yes general aviation has suffered but not over the last decade but more likely over the last three decades. I do not think you will find many if any that would argue that todays commercial career bears no resemblance
to pre 1990's commercial career.Unfortunately world events have conspired to make the attraction of a career as a commercial pilot, well not attractive. The lack of experienced pilots was becoming an issue when 911 occurred. Than SARS etc. I know there has been oddles of advice given to those looking at a career in aviation mainly revolving around have a backup and good luck. I agree.

[finestkind]

I think there is a smaller percentage of young people these days willing to hand over control of their life for 11.5-14.5 years to the military. I can't blame them, with the options that were available only months ago within the industry, there were other avenues. People talk about HECS debt, but very few mention the burden of being told where to live, when to go on leave etc that comes with the military. Nothing is ever free!

Hmm, yes, no, maybe. We certainly have a more transient career population but also most professionals do not change career paths (do know a few who have but they generally having to many of those stray neurons upstairs). This has been highlighted for the last 20 + years and attempted to be addressed with a varying ROSO. Most people join the military for a career with the option or plan to move to commercial. In regards to the options that were available a few months ago in the commercial area I would argue that the military has changed, for the better, to what it was a decade plus ago ( as I would point out the commercial life is nothing to what it was 20 plus years ago). If you are flying for a commercial organisation where to live may well, and certainly is for juniors, not an option. Leave in the military has been recognised as a requirement and your superior that denies a leave app needs a very good reason.

I guess it all comes back to the individual and what they find attractive for career.

[neville_nobody]

Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

Given the very low numbers that actually pass every year and the disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate, is there ever really going to be an issue for the RAAF? One thing they could change would be the failure rate. In reality if you get through the RAAF selection you should have close to 95% pass rate once on course.

But the RAAF have attempted to address this by changing the requirements for entry. This allows more applicants to progress to the selection process but whether this will translate to a greater graduation number of high quality candidates remains to be seen.

It could also be just a way of dealing with some heat they have copped over recent years about their lack of "diversity" in pilot ranks.

[finestkind]

Given the very low numbers that actually pass every year and the disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate, is there ever really going to be an issue for the RAAF? One thing they could change would be the failure rate. In reality if you get through the RAAF selection you should have close to 95% pass rate once on course.



It could also be just a way of dealing with some heat they have copped over recent years about their lack of "diversity" in pilot ranks.

NN, the "disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate" is an arguable statement. How many apply and have no chance of making it through the first stage of recruiting due to a myriad of reasons ranging from medical to educational is not a valid comparison of the pass rate. What is a low pass rate? The RAAF has been around the 60% pass rate for years and with the new selection and training system planning to increase that percentage.

NN you are so right. In the perfect world the selection process would be perfect and to a large extent is fairly accurate with who has a high chance of passing and who is a risk and fails. Yes there are the surprises both ways where an apparent very good applicant falls by the wayside. A lot of that can be attributed to external factors that are beyond the control of not only the selection process but the individual. The same as the applicants that appears a risk but worth a go and ends up duxing the course. The latter is far less common. The new selection process is likely to improve the pass rate.

Your "diversity" comment has some merit but also has been in the system for some time with the IMPS being fairly constant apart for attracting the diversity numbers.

[chrismonson85]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.

[Climb150]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
You spent 140k on a CPL/IR????

[aussieflyboy]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.

Plenty of jobs out there for a fresh CPL Graduate, like just about every other pilot has done in the past you need to go looking for them. Head North and have fun! Wasn’t there a company in Shark Bay looking for an admin assistant?

[Xeptu]

At least there's a bit more reality in this thread than there is over in the QF Group thread. Age 55 is the magic number in the workforce generally, if you find yourself unemployed without a very specific niche skillset.

[Flyboy1987]

Plenty of jobs out there for a fresh CPL Graduate, like just about every other pilot has done in the past you need to go looking for them. Head North and have fun! Wasn’t there a company in Shark Bay looking for an admin assistant?

that admin role....I heard first hand they had 400 applications.

Unfortunately universities and flying schoolS have been telling pork pies to potential students for years. All the flashy beat ups about estimate pilot number that will be needed etc.
i even seen a Qld university advertising they have both an a320 and a 737 sim...WHAT THE HELL WOULD THEY NEED THAT FOR?

There are still jobs out there...but these next few years will be the most competitive it’s ever been...not just with added students with fresh cpls...but guys who were further up the ladder having to come back down...and operators taking full advantage of that.

Goodluck to all...and if you do get that “crap c210 job based out of Arnhem Land”...it will be the most fun you’ll ever have in a plane :)

[SpyderPig]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.

Pack the car and head north mate. I can think of at least 10 companies off the top of my head you’d be able to talk to before you hit Darwin

[dr dre]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.

Don’t despair. In the long run your qualifications will come in useful.

Pandemics pass, this one will too, recessions pass, as will this one. I would say 2-3 years.

Aviation will still boom worldwide over the next 20 years. Boeing still estimates we’ll need another 600,000 airline pilots worldwide in the next two decades, half in the Asia Pacific, our region. In some parts of the world aviation is almost back at pre Covid levels today.

The youngest of the Baby boomer generation, born 1945-65, are now at age 55. So that means they’ll be retiring over the next 5-10 years. I’ve seen pilot age and retirement data from airlines and there is a big chunk set to go over the next 5-10 years in line with predictions. They’ll need to be replaced somehow. There is a reason airlines are continuing to invest in and recruit for pilot academies. They’re thinking 2030, not 2020.

For perspective I’ll assume you’re about 21, as are your classmates. In 4 decades retirement age will probably be around 70. That’s 50 years of working life. This current recession will take up 5% of the total length of your career. A tiny minority. It’s only because this is all you’ve seen in your time in professional aviation it will lead you to believe this is how it will be all the time. It won’t. In a 50 year career you’ll probably see at least two other downturns like this. Every other downturn in history passed, as will this.

You may need to do other things for a year or two, but keep your hand in aviation, keep current, network etc. You’ll be in a good spot especially if upon return to the norm a lot of the baby boomer generation have taken early retirement and some students planning to commence professional pilot training in the next 12 months decide not to, leaving a supply issue you can take advantage of.

[Xeptu]

Spot on Dr Dre

[leftfrontside]

Feel for all you guys, it's going to be a long way back to anything normal if at all. Like a lot of others from my era we are all retired and a myriad of things have changed in Aviation since our day. You now have to deal with something no one saw coming COVID - 19 :\
We were lucky we only had to deal with an ars........le Prime Minister who saw us as Bus Drivers so we went driving Taxi's, Buses and took Labouring Jobs whilst awaiting placement anywhere in the World. That is obviously not on this time and getting any job not necessarily in Aviation is a priority - :(:(
:{:{:{

[pithblot]

G’day Chris,

It’s ok to be “at a loss” in these crazy times. I can understand the feeling, but don’t go talking yourself down or buy into the gloom, doom and hysteria that is everywhere today. If you follow that path then you likely won’t be in a position to jump at opportunities when they finally do open up.

Yes, times have changed and you’ve got a big debt, but you do have prospects and something to look forward to.

You’ve got age on your side, health and proven skills/abilities. It may be that you don’t end up flying for a while - that’s disappointing, but not the end of the world. I suggest you prioritise your health/fitness and an income that is not flying to knock that debt over. Make it a challenge. You are not defined by being a pilot. Keep your finger on the aviation pulse but get comfortable hitting the pause button on your log book. Life is good. Don’t forget it.

All the best.

pithblot

FWIW
Will I ever go back to aviation? Yeah/nah. I’m pretty happy to rule a line under my last log book entry in March after 42 years in the game. I’ve had a great time, lots of ups and downs so-to-speak. It’s been the best job in the world and the worst career. But flying being what flying is, someone might just wheel out a PC24 for me to play with; or a DC3, or a glider. So I’ll rule the log book line in pencil, just for the moment :)

[Xeptu]

G’day Chris,

It’s ok to be “at a loss” in these crazy times. I can understand the feeling, but don’t go talking yourself down or buy into the gloom, doom and hysteria that is everywhere today. If you follow that path then you likely won’t be in a position to jump at opportunities when they finally do open up.

Yes, times have changed and you’ve got a big debt, but you do have prospects and something to look forward to.

You’ve got age on your side, health and proven skills/abilities. It may be that you don’t end up flying for a while - that’s disappointing, but not the end of the world. I suggest you prioritise your health/fitness and an income that is not flying to knock that debt over. Make it a challenge. You are not defined by being a pilot. Keep your finger on the aviation pulse but get comfortable hitting the pause button on your log book. Life is good. Don’t forget it.

All the best.

pithblot

FWIW
Will I ever go back to aviation? Yeah/nah. I’m pretty happy to rule a line under my last log book entry in March after 42 years in the game. I’ve had a great time, lots of ups and downs so-to-speak. It’s been the best job in the world and the worst career. But flying being what flying is, someone might just wheel out a PC24 for me to play with; or a glider. So I’ll rule the log book line in pencil, just for the moment :)

The B200 does nicely so long as it's all glass and has all the goodies in it :)

[pithblot]

Agreed.
I wouldn’t want to sound selfish :)

[Xeptu]

Agreed.
I wouldn’t want to sound selfish :)

We are old and retired, be as selfish as you like :) I'm not even embarrassed by it anymore.

[aussieflyboy]

that admin role....I heard first hand they had 400 applications.

In my day positions like that wouldn’t have needed to advertise! I would have been working at the pub waiting for a job like that to come up!

[Green.Dot]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.

Hi mate, I feel for you and many others just starting out. But you have not made a big mistake.

You made a decision on the best info you had at the time and no doubt chose aviation because you love flying.

This will turn around, the hard bit to process is “when?” The day it does though, you will look at your job and say I am glad I chose something I enjoy.

Good luck, and as others say, chase a job even if it means moving somewhere else for a while.

[Propjet88]

I can understand why some newcomers to the profession are feeling gloomy, as well of course as those colleagues who have lost their jobs or been stood down. A personal view (and I am standing by to be flamed) is that, at least in some cases, companies are being opportunistic and "not wasting a crisis" by aggressively repositioning their workforces for the recovery.

Let's look at some underpinning facts. For the last several years a world pilot shortage has been brewing. In July last year, both Airbus and Boeing agreed that the world needed three-quarters of a million pilots over the next 20 years https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook/ These are not just figures from the OEMs. Every airline in the world (including Australia) was recruiting hard, with many introducing subsidised ab-initio cadet programs. The potential shortage was acknowledged by initiatives from ICAO and IATA.

Let's assume that it may take 2 or 3 or even 4 years for a vaccine to be found, administered, and for people to start traveling again. (I haven't seen any predictions/estimates of longer than this, although I do agree that its guess-work). In any case, whenever a vaccine is found and distributed, people will start flying again - why wouldn't they? Assuming that things only recover to 2/3 of the 2019 figures that still means half a million new pilots, needed plus the extras from those who have retired or decided to give it away. Like an earlier poster, I agree that numbers of the older demographic (of which I am one) may well be considering giving it away earlier than originally planned.

I don't buy into the "Drones will take over / airliners will have single-pilot operations by then" and other such rhetoric being spread by doom and gloom merchants. Maybe in the distant future, but not in my lifetime. I am predicting that the pilot shortage will come back with a vengeance. Having said this, I appreciate that pilots are very big into uncertainty avoidance and not having a fixed date for the bounce back is very stressful.

I believe that the unions and associations have a difficult path to tread, with conflicts between accepting expedient measures for short-term job protection sometimes conflicting with longer-term thinking to protect the profession. Just bear in mind that the airlines are positioning themselves for the future.

In summary, "Steady team, steady"! Everything will be OK.

Be Safe
PJ88

[chrismonson85]

Hi mate, I feel for you and many others just starting out. But you have not made a big mistake.

You made a decision on the best info you had at the time and no doubt chose aviation because you love flying.

This will turn around, the hard bit to process is “when?” The day it does though, you will look at your job and say I am glad I chose something I enjoy.

Good luck, and as others say, chase a job even if it means moving somewhere else for a while.

I am new here so I want to say thanks so much for the encouragement! I was reluctant to sign up to pprune because I've heard it gets really nasty... but came here to share my little story and so thank you to everyone!

[chrismonson85]

You spent 140k on a CPL/IR????

I did everything (airline integrated)... so the more expensive route... and as mentioned earlier, regretting it slightly as I don't know how to pay it back.

[compressor stall]

Things will come good again. It won't be as it was before for a while - but as it ramps up again, 15-20% of the workforce won't be there (if a flying career is 40 years, many over over 57 now probably won't fly again, and add into it those younger who leave the industry and don't bother coming back.). Maybe in fact more.

Late last year, the pilot shortage was really bad. Companies were struggling to find applicants for all levels - jets and turboprops and pistons.

When it picks up again, the shortage will be worse.

If it's your dream, hang in there lad. Get something to tide you over for now, keep the car boot packed and be ready to bolt at the first whiff of something.

[redsnail]

G'day Chrismonson85, welcome to the wonderful reality that is aviation. You've just learnt the most valuable life lesson. Reality is very different to the sales pitch. Don't worry, we have all been there.
Right now, you're justifiably worried about paying off this humungous debt and staying current. There's several ways to play this. Find any job you can and approach the bank with a repayment plan. Forget about keeping things current until this sh!tshow settles down. That's an option.

You could research the heck out of GA "up north" and work on getting the various tickets, such as Dangerous Goods, First Aid, small bus drivers lic. I doubt you'll be traveling at the moment if I've understood Australia's lock down properly? (I'm in the UK - now that's a mess. Fortunately the private jet side of aviation is absolutely booming - busier than we were last year.)
Unless you land a nice airline job first up, you'll be flying piston aircraft. So, see if you can find an Maintenance organisation that'll let you learn how to change the oil, change spark plugs, change the tyres etc.

Can you find a job in an FBO? (Fixed Base Operator). I am not sure how the business jet market is in Oz, could be worth a look.

Bottom line is you need to keep yourself occupied adding strings to your bow that won't cost you much. Any job will keep some money coming in and the bank off your back. Hopefully, showing some initiative now will help you nail the future interview.

Good luck

[umop apisdn]

I did everything (airline integrated)... so the more expensive route... and as mentioned earlier, regretting it slightly as I don't know how to pay it back.

Don't worry about it mate. I did the same thing. Fee Help / University degree (which actually funnily enough has probably helped me out a bit in more recent times)

Government student loans are the most forgiving thing you can get:
- No affect to your credit score or ability to buy a house, car, etc.
- Interest pretty much just pegged to inflation.
- No consequences for your family if anything happens to you, and no consequences to you if you never get to pay it off.

I did exactly the same thing in 2009. Would have I worked and paid my way through flight training having known what I do now? Probably.

I also had the opportunity to take a similar loan from a family member. I'm so glad I didn't do that. The pressure to pay it back would have completely stifled my career. You made the best decision with the knowledge you had available.

At the time I rationalised the premium as being the best way to keep age on my side and to get all of my licences done asap. I'm still thankful for that, and the timeline it set me on is still worth it in my opinion.

My only real suggestion with the debt would be to do your best to keep it where it is. Even though it's indexed at a low number, it can run away from you if you ignore it's existence for a few years, as I did. You might just scrape in at the repayment threshold every year, but if you make a plan to keep it where it is with extra voluntary repayments, you'll thank yourself for it later on.

Now I live in the USA and am extremely lucky to still have a job which will help me to make a good dint my student loans next year.

There are so many things with this pandemic that are unknown. It has the potential to create a downturn in the aviation industry for many years, but it also has the potential to exacerbate the pilot shortage to numbers you never even thought of, if the recovery happens quickly enough. A lot of airlines still have orders on the books and will be forced to expand over the next 5 years or so.

In the mean time, as soon as you're allowed, grab car and go for a drive to Darwin and WA. You never know what opportunities might pop up for you. Also keep on the lookout for jobs like survey operator, loader driver, or anything else that directly supports the operation of an aircraft. Lastly don't be afraid to go overseas to further your career. The US definitely has a lot of problems, but its still host to the greatest aviation industry on the planet. If you're interested in taking that route, at the very least you could apply for the green card lottery every October and see if you get lucky with a selection combined with a low case number.

[DUXNUTZ]

I started training the month after Sept 11, 2001 and the outlook then was extremely bleak. Jobs were few and far between and I ended up doing the drive up north that so many recommend - luckily getting my first job within a month or so.

I’m now also working overseas, was affected by the 2008 downturn and currently trying to hang on to a job due Coronavirus. Like the above poster I highly recommend flying in the USA, at the very least it will help you advance your career to become more competitive for a job back home.

Its an industry like no other but what it shares in common with other occupations is that you really need drive to succeed. You may get lucky with timing but at some point you’ll need some inner grit to stay the course.

[Xeptu]

Airliners will have single-pilot operations by then"

I do see that happening in the next 20 years. The Co-pilot seat removed and replaced by a fully robotic AI, connected to all of the Aircraft systems and external surveillance systems. Fully Autonomous, fully situationally aware. The Captain in his/her seat will be the only human on the flight deck.

[dream747]

I empathise with how you’re feeling right now - having spent a huge sum on getting your CPL, with little or no prospect of employment upon completion of the course. I have been in your shoes before, spending a huge fortune only to end up in a period of financial crisis with no opportunities for employment.

I am sure you (and most people) would have considered the possibility of not being able to find jobs after getting the licence before starting the course, but it hits real hard and it is a hard slap in the face when you’re truly in this situation facing reality. I had to go through a long period working in other jobs and the wait for a flying job without certainty was frankly, hard to deal with.

No one could foresee this pandemic coming, you’ve made the decision there and then with the best information you had. It’s not a mistake.

Do not give up.

[Xeptu]

I empathise with how you’re feeling right now - having spent a huge sum on getting your CPL, with little or no prospect of employment upon completion of the course. I have been in your shoes before, spending a huge fortune only to end up in a period of financial crisis with no opportunities for employment.

I am sure you (and most people) would have considered the possibility of not being able to find jobs after getting the licence before starting the course, but it hits real hard and it is a hard slap in the face when you’re truly in this situation facing reality. I had to go through a long period working in other jobs and the wait for a flying job without certainty was frankly, hard to deal with.

No one could foresee this pandemic coming, you’ve made the decision there and then with the best information you had. It’s not a mistake.

Do not give up.

I went through it too, at the very beginning for exactly the same reason and then 3 more times while I was in it. It's an industry hazard, one which I don't miss one little bit and the very reason I diversified into other areas. That ended up taking more of my time and making more money. It is the main reason I retired early. I didn't give up flying though, just for my own purposes (business) these days, to the retirees if you fly on other than in recreational aircraft, make sure it's tax deductable.

[Green.Dot]

I do see that happening in the next 20 years. The Co-pilot seat removed and replaced by a fully robotic AI, connected to all of the Aircraft systems and external surveillance systems. Fully Autonomous, fully situationally aware. The Captain in his/her seat will be the only human on the flight deck.

More negativity from the master himself. Just like NSW will fall by Xmas, robots will replace us.

My Tip, Xeptu, there will still be 2 pilots in the cockpit in 20 years. Feel free to correct me then if I’m wrong.

[Lookleft]

My Tip, Xeptu, there will still be 2 pilots in the cockpit in 20 years. Feel free to correct me then if I’m wrong.

As there are no new commercial airliners being developed with 2 pilots let alone single pilot I can't see an autonomous airliner being in service much before 2080 in which case the OP will be a retired airline pilot.

[Xeptu]

More negativity from the master himself. Just like NSW will fall by Xmas, robots will replace us.

My Tip, Xeptu, there will still be 2 pilots in the cockpit in 20 years. Feel free to correct me then if I’m wrong.

Well they managed without a flight engineer and a navigator, why can't they manage without a human first officer, whats wrong with a robot, that doesn't get tired, never leaves the flight deck, is fully situationally aware continuously and doesn't cost $100,000 per year, seems perfectly sensible to me. I don't see the travelling public will accept no humans at all up the front

[Green.Dot]

Well they managed without a flight engineer and a navigator, why can't they manage without a human first officer, whats wrong with a robot, that doesn't get tired, never leaves the flight deck, is fully situationally aware continuously and doesn't cost $100,000 per year, seems perfectly sensible to me. I don't see the travelling public will accept no humans at all up the front

I have no doubt it will happen at some stage mate, but not in twenty years IMO.

Seriously though, you bring lots of negativity to all of these forums.

You have mentioned numerous times you are in a much better life position than most of us average airline drivers with our few qualifications outside, and I believe you.

Best thing for you to do is stop essentially telling us how bleak our future is with robot and COVID threats.

I know you are probably just after a “bite” from people just like me, but I couldn’t let this go after we just tried to tell an up and coming aviator new to PPRUNE that there is hope ahead.

Enjoy flying your King Air 200 in the flight levels (I’m actually envious) and voting for your Premier keeping the borders closed until a vaccine is here, but please give PPRUNE a rest if it’s all about telling us to make a career change because you had to.

[Xeptu]

I have no doubt it will happen at some stage mate, but not in twenty years IMO.

Seriously though, you bring lots of negativity to all of these forums.

You have mentioned numerous times you are in a much better life position than most of us average airline drivers with our few qualifications outside, and I believe you.

Best thing for you to do is stop essentially telling us how bleak our future is with robot and COVID threats.

I know you are probably just after a “bite” from people just like me, but I couldn’t let this go after we just tried to tell an up and coming aviator new to PPRUNE that there is hope ahead.

Enjoy flying your King Air 200 in the flight levels (I’m actually envious) and voting for your Premier keeping the borders closed until a vaccine is here, but please give PPRUNE a rest if it’s all about telling us to make a career change because you had to.

Well you did have the audacity of telling me I'm old and out of touch I think you said. This is a public forum, for news and rumour, If you or anyone else has a personal problem with what's posted here, interpretation, opinion or otherwise, then it is you who should consider, giving it a rest. You take care.

[Transition Layer]

Xeptu,

Do us all a favour and get off pprune, jump in your caravan and head north with the rest of the Sandgroper Grey Nomads. Find the nearest caravan park where you can sit around the camp fire and circle jerk over what a fantastic job McMoron is doing.

The rest of us will then carry on with finding some positivity, and encourage each other out of this mess so we can hopefully resurrect our careers.

[3wickets]

My biggest advice to anyone who has a fresh CPL , if you want a long lasting and prosperous career in Aviation. Seek flying jobs OVERSEAS. I left Australia with about 400hrs , scored single piston day VFR charter job. Got my hours , then got a job flying airliners in the U.S. straight from piston to Jet.

opportunities like that do not and will not exist in Australia unless you become a cadet. Myself as well as thousands of other Australians are flying all over the world Asia, Africa , U.S ....the aviation industry in Australia is its own worst enemy. Take a leap of faith , I did 4 years ago n haven’t looked back 👍

[Climb150]

My biggest advice to anyone who has a fresh CPL , if you want a long lasting and prosperous career in Aviation. Seek flying jobs OVERSEAS. I left Australia with about 400hrs , scored single piston day VFR charter job. Got my hours , then got a job flying airliners in the U.S. straight from piston to Jet.

opportunities like that do not and will not exist in Australia unless you become a cadet. Myself as well as thousands of other Australians are flying all over the world Asia, Africa , U.S ....the aviation industry in Australia is its own worst enemy. Take a leap of faith , I did 4 years ago n haven’t looked back 👍
Leaving Australia with only a few hundred hours means your only employment options are one operator in lndonesia or maybe a job flying tourists around Southern Africa.

Even pre covid the USA was the only place an Australian could walk into a jet job with no previous jet time. You still needed ATP mins. Whilst it is possible to do what you did, you were very lucky and it's not a common outcome.

[lucille]

My biggest advice to anyone who has a fresh CPL , if you want a long lasting and prosperous career in Aviation. Seek flying jobs OVERSEAS. I left Australia with about 400hrs , scored single piston day VFR charter job. Got my hours , then got a job flying airliners in the U.S. straight from piston to Jet.

opportunities like that do not and will not exist in Australia unless you become a cadet. Myself as well as thousands of other Australians are flying all over the world Asia, Africa , U.S ....the aviation industry in Australia is its own worst enemy. Take a leap of faith , I did 4 years ago n haven’t looked back 👍

+1

Best career move I ever made and that was 35 years ago. Despite not being a religious person, but the word blessed is the only one to properly describe my career after leaving Oz. If I can do it, anyone can.

Although for the next couple of years everyone will have to accept that there will be zero opportunities overseas. Eventually, as sure as day follows night, they will return.

Occupy the next few years with care. Add value to yourselves.

[Xeptu]

I've always seen myself as a bit of a visionary since Dick Tracy's watch, you young blokes might need to look that one up.

I watched Neil, Buzz and Mike fly to the moon. Ten years later I was flying myself. I've seen The INS, VLF Omega, IRS, VOR and DME replace the Navigator. I've seen the auto throttle replace the flight engineer. I've seen propellors become turbo jet, become fan jet and four engines become two. Analog become digital, the dark cockpit, the glass cockpit, the FMS, the GPS, the TAWS the TCAS and ADS. The 33k dialup modem, become broadband become fibre, from cable to wireless. The first mobile phone become digital, become smart, home phones and public phones fade away. I've used the first pc, laptop and tablet. DOS, visual basic, C+ C++ and HTML5. I've seen automation and robotics do things so tiny and precisely that humans cannot. I've seen recession, mergers, collapse and emergers.

Most of those things we had barely heard of before we were learning and using them. Most of those changes occurred in the last 30 years, evolving ever more quickly. I think I've seen my fair share of change and adapted quite well Thanks.

So just in case I missed anything, if you wouldn't mind updating the last 5 years and if you feel so inclined your expectation in the next 20 years.

Propjet88 is on it, post 41, good post.

[neville_nobody]

Well they managed without a flight engineer and a navigator, why can't they manage without a human first officer, whats wrong with a robot, that doesn't get tired, never leaves the flight deck, is fully situationally aware continuously and doesn't cost $100,000 per year, seems perfectly sensible to me. I don't see the travelling public will accept no humans at all up the front

Whilst it is technically possible I think the development, certification, insurance costs are going to make it uneconomical for now. Additional to that it is actually riskier to start experimenting with automation as the current system of two pilots with a computer system is already very safe. Single Pilot with a computer is actually a higher risk proposition.

[Xeptu]

Whilst it is technically possible I think the development, certification, insurance costs are going to make it uneconomical for now. Additional to that it is actually riskier to start experimenting with automation as the current system of two pilots with a computer system is already very safe. Single Pilot with a computer is actually a higher risk proposition.

And I agree with you "For Now" but in 20 years, that's a long time in our rapidly evolving world.

[Lookleft]

Propjet88 is on it, post 41, good post.

Interesting because he actually contradicts what you state:

I don't buy into the "Drones will take over / airliners will have single-pilot operations by then" and other such rhetoric being spread by doom and gloom merchants. Maybe in the distant future, but not in my lifetime. I am predicting that the pilot shortage will come back with a vengeance. Having said this, I appreciate that pilots are very big into uncertainty avoidance and not having a fixed date for the bounce back is very stressful.

The only real technological advance in the last 20 years has been the use of carbon fibre in the manufacturing of airframes and thats by only one manufacturer. As far as I am aware an autoland can still only be conducted in what would best be described as benign conditions.

[Xeptu]

The only real technological advance in the last 20 years has been the use of carbon fibre in the manufacturing of airframes and thats by only one manufacturer. As far as I am aware an autoland can still only be conducted in what would best be described as benign conditions.

Umm! really!!!, where have you been ???

[Lookleft]

Flying 737s and A320s. Updates to technology is not the same as new technology. There are more checks and cross checks required before an RNP approach than there are for an ILS. So why is the 2nd pilot not required?

[Xeptu]

So why is the 2nd pilot not required?

I didn't say "not required" I said replaced by an AI, The vision, A self contained, fully independent, totally situationally aware, fixed installation robot, so good you can't tell the difference from a real first officer performance wise.

[Lookleft]

You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.

[Xeptu]

You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.

Well it's all academic then, personally I don't think progress will just stop, in fact after every crisis there has been a burst in development or change, hence the term "never waste a good crisis" I'm optimistic for the future, it would be nice to have a crystal ball and know in advance what that's going to be and how it will look.There's gains to be made if you can predict it right and get in early enough.

[Daddy Fantastic]

You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.

Pig with lipstick...thanks mate, gave me a good laugh and I happen to agree with you.

[Sunfish]

single pilot is dangerous unless you fit the robot with a crash axe.

[Blueskymine]

Pig with lipstick...thanks mate, gave me a good laugh and I happen to agree with you.

Which is why the 737 is a 1960s jet with a 1990s computer strapped to it.

The A320 is a 1980s jet with a 1990s computer strapped To it.

The rest is just marketing.

The advancements in aerospace are in the materials and manufacturing. The actual interface is very basic. There is probably less computing power in an A350/B787 than an iPhone.

[lucille]

100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/

Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison.

When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey?
CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability.

The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters.

[Xeptu]

100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit.

I think not, it has to be more than a glorified autopilot, it has to be better than human, updated yes but self contained, so well that from a captains perspective is flying with the same first officer every time, even though it's a different unit. It must learn human individual uniqueness, remember every conversation. It doesn't need to walk or leave the flight deck, just be able to operate the rudder and brakes along with two hands. It must see everything, know everything, understand and respond to verbal conversation. external input in flight is ideal but not essential. Then we are in the zone, but only the first officer and I wouldn't expect to see that in a commercial airliner for at least 20 years, but I'm sure it will happen.

[bekolblockage]

100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/

Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison.

When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey?
CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability.

The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters.

As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...

[lucille]

“As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...”

Agreed. Poor choice of words on my part. It was just simpler and less pedantic than saying a probability of failure that would be low enough to assuage the fears of the travelling public. Nevertheless, I’m sure most got my drift no matter how inexpertly I may have worded it.

But anyone who rejects the idea that crews of aircraft which operate between major city airports can’t eventually be replaced by automation is just being hopeful. It’s coming, the capability is very nearly here, the only question is when.

[Lookleft]

And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?

[Xeptu]

And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?
Well that's the best part, an AI doesn't need to be tested in a real aircraft, a simulator will do nicely. The development of an AI is a stand alone project, it just needs to be adapted to an aircraft/airline environment. It's not without it's challenges, in recent times and I'll hunt down the name of the AI project, when powered up it's very first action was to write it's own language at an alarming rate, no-one could understand or keep up with what it was doing, it took just 20 minutes before they pulled the plug. I guess that got moved underground into a faraday cage.

ipsoft.com/amelia

Go and meet Amelia and you'll sorta get the idea, imagine 20 years from now.

[turbantime]

If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.

[Xeptu]

If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.

That's right, well for about half the workforce, that's why it's time to have the conversation about how we want to live when half of us are not employed because of robotics and automation.
How should our society look.

[Lookleft]

Well that's the best part, an AI doesn't need to be tested in a real aircraft, a simulator will do nicely.

At some point it will need to be integrated, tested and certified into a real oxygen breathing aeroplane. Integrating different "systems" into something that needs to actually fly not just be simulated is a very difficult proposition. I'm thinking Kaman Seasprite and the RAN.

[Xeptu]

At some point it will need to be integrated, tested and certified into a real oxygen breathing aeroplane. Integrating different "systems" into something that needs to actually fly not just be simulated is a very difficult proposition. I'm thinking Kaman Seasprite and the RAN.
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.

[zanthrus]

More Human then Human....

[ElZilcho]

I’ll never understand why, as a society, we’re so hell bent on putting people out of work. It’s already been said, but if true AI is realised, it won’t just be Pilots out of work. Given humanity’s history of “looking before they leap” we’ll have all these fancy self flying Aircraft with no one buying tickets because the population is unemployed and broke.

But I digress...

Currently I cant even leave old mate alone for 5 minutes to take a leak without a CC member supervising them. So Single Pilot + AI will be a very interesting discussion in terms of who’s actually in Command. The AI or the “Captain”.
Secondly, right now, there’ll be no shortage of Pilots suitably qualified to babysit the AI, having done their “apprenticeship” as FO’s. Once it’s all single Pilot, will kids be going fist “Solo” in an Airliner?

I've (hopefully) got 20 years give or take left in the saddle, and I can definitely see Long-Haul becoming 2 Pilot, single Pilot Cruise in my career, but Single (or no) Pilot is a ways off I imagine.

Ignoring everything else, I can see Liability being the big brick wall in this endeavour. When (not it) one of these fancy AI Aircraft crash, and the manufacturer can’t blame the Pilots, and the class actions start rolling in, and Airlines around the world are forced to ground entire fleets until the software is fixed, will it really be worth it?

Boeing and Airbus sell the Aircraft, they don’t employ the Pilots. How much liability are they going to willingly accept so their customers can save a few percent on operating costs?

If every other form of transport becomes fully automated during my career, I might start to worry. But given most trains still have drivers and they’re on tracks, I can’t see us being replaced in my lifetime.

Yes, single Pilot cruise is likely coming to Long-haul, and yes, the jobs going to get even more automated and tedious, but there will till be 2 Pilots up front for Takeoff and Landing.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.

And this fantastical machine will make decisions? Think for itself? Or will it still require a human to tell it what to do?

I’m still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and I’ve seen such crews cross check each other’s work to virtually eliminate errors.

Good luck to you Xeptu, you’ll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.

[Lookleft]

It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.

I think you need to stop channeling L. Ron Hubbard and step back into reality. Whatever robot F/O your freakshow imagination comes up with will need to be certified by the FAA and EASA before it gets used on a revenue generating flight. There are no shortcuts with that process especially after Boeing tried to sneak their MCAS wunderkind through.

[Xeptu]

And this fantastical machine will make decisions? Think for itself? Or will it still require a human to tell it what to do?

I’m still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and I’ve seen such crews cross check each other’s work to virtually eliminate errors.

Good luck to you Xeptu, you’ll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.

Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you. It's a synthetic human, you'll enjoy working with it, it knows more than you.
I know it's difficult to imagine, but 30 years ago, we couldn't have imagined WiFi either.

[brokenagain]

Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you.

....send drunk suggestive text messages to F/As same as you.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x1600/2f094002_6ec7_4740_b9a6_5da18c53f322_c3095bf8efd83c9b401a56e 0d59dae3012e87a69.jpeg

[neville_nobody]

It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.

The fact they can't automate simple processes yet makes me wonder how something as safety critical and complex as aviation is magically going to be automated with ensuing mass layoffs. And it still begs the question of what problem are you solving by automating it?

I read in the paper today that Wharfies are threatening to shut down the country again. Yet people think that Pilots are going to be redundant in the near future. If we can't or can't afford to automate something so simple as a wharf how are we going to automate an aviation network??

[Turnleft080]

Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you. It's a synthetic human, you'll enjoy working with it, it knows more than you.
I know it's difficult to imagine, but 30 years ago, we couldn't have imagined WiFi either.

Drivers required for USS Enterprise. No more humanoids however now accepting Vulcans.

[Xeptu]

Drivers required for USS Enterprise. No more humanoids however now accepting Vulcans.

I know it all sounds 24th century, but we are further along than you think. How Amelia will be rolled out, I see a short sim session with a few unsuspecting Captains, the objective to see if you notice she isn't human.

[ruprecht]

I know it all sounds 24th century, but we are further along than you think. How Amelia will be rolled out, I see a short sim session with a few unsuspecting Captains, the objective to see if you notice she isn't human.
When she gets plugged in might be the first clue. :confused:

[Xeptu]

When she gets plugged in might be the first clue. :confused:

She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.

[brokenagain]

She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.

Oh FFS. Who thinks up this ****? Is that you BNEA320?

[Xeptu]

Oh FFS. Who thinks up this ****? Is that you BNEA320?

No! but the reaction doesn't come as any surprise, it wasn't all that long ago it was the exact same response about women.

[ruprecht]

She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
Hahaha, that’s gold Jerry, gold!

So when the briefing officer tells you’re briefing on your own and that the FO is waiting in the sim, that’ll be your first clue.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/530x267/9a8a58cc_07f4_4017_97fc_f2da34c71c4b_4b67d6b23d84de89b4e5573 70063fa9358aec2b1.gif

[Maggie Island]

Awesome thread, just awesome. To get it back on track and answer the original question.... YES I intend to aviate again. To stay in the correct headspace I put on full uniform for my morning walk to get my daily bottle of fortified wine.

All the hip cool kids get theirs in a box!

[blow.n.gasket]

Hey Pilot , you buy me a box of “ White Lady in a boat “ ?
(Lindeman’s Moselle ) ?
You can puk me if you do !
Luv U long time !

[ifylofd]

I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse change now.


Just an update(!), the crew that are still fortunate enough to be flying, that there are indeed material changes being implemented (to T's and Cs / EBA's etc etc) The shrewd operators are using the Covid smokescreen as the perfect opportunity - regardless of profitability of the said business or not - to continue the race to the bottom for aviation professionals remuneration. Sad fact is, when things do start to stabilise, there is likely to be a direct impact in the form of an accident or incident owing to the distraction of all things Covid, recency, currency, standards, mental health (in the form of distractions) ........ the list goes on.

[boaccomet4]

I was lucky to be part of the industry in the Golden Era. First as a passenger as a boy and then finally got into GA and then a domestic airline. Left the industry many years ago and feel for the younger guys and girls who fought hard to get into the airlines like me. The industry has changed so much that I feel the regulator has lost touch with the real life challenges of both GA and RPT ops. Despite my age I gained a lot of skills from the old timers who were my instructors and examiners of airmen in the DCA in the late 1960's onwards. There are now so many restrictions and rule changes that I feel are there to protect the regulator from indemnity rather than focusing on safety. Can still remember when, during my initial twin endorsement in a Twin Camanche, we unintentionally got into a flat spin with the late James Hazelton who suggested we try a full power stall, We were lucky to get out of it but Jim had a technique for recovery talked me through it rather than taking over. The next day we told the head examiner of airmen DCA at Bankstown and he had the flight manuals amended so as to prevent such incidents.
In those days the DCA and Bureau of Air Safety worked together. The great thing about those days were that if you experienced an abnormal incident you could be honest with the regulator in the interests of safety. Although I have a lot of experience in the industry and would like to impart the knowledge to the younger generation I do not have faith in either the regulator nor the ATSB in its present form. Thus because of my age and my distrust of the industry in it's present form I doubt if I will ever return.

[KRUSTY 34]

Bloody hell boaccomet4,

I did a Queenair endorsement with Jim nearly 30 years ago and thankfully spin practice wasn’t on the program!

[finestkind]

. Despite my age I gained a lot of skills from the old timers who were my instructors and examiners of airmen in the DCA in the late 1960's onwards. .

Boa that reads as if you started flying when you were about 9 y.o.

[Bend alot]

I think you need to stop channeling L. Ron Hubbard and step back into reality. Whatever robot F/O your freakshow imagination comes up with will need to be certified by the FAA and EASA before it gets used on a revenue generating flight. There are no shortcuts with that process especially after Boeing tried to sneak their MCAS wunderkind through.

As you are aware 737 MAX probably exceeded its limit & should have been a new design.

Airbus can probably upgrade one or two more times until it needs a clean sheet also.

The Boeing wallet is currently burning because they wanted to save the operators a few bucks on staff costs, will they do it again?

The next step of cutting staff costs will be in the new clean sheet designs & they will need to be radical to cover development costs and get market share.

There are a few options to start the process, I see no (or small emergency only) windscreens or remote second pilot as options to create a bridge of reduced staff costs.

[Lookleft]

The Boeing wallet is currently burning because they wanted to save the operators a few bucks on staff costs, will they do it again?

They already have. The Max is close to being recertified. If they wanted the expense of a clean sheet design they would already have started the process. In the current climate neither Boeing or Airbus have the financial capacity to start developing a pilotless airliner. The next new design if there is going to be one will be a narrow body. The narrow body environment is even less likely to go single pilot than the wide body.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

As you are aware 737 MAX probably exceeded its limit & should have been a new design.

Probably??? Have a read of the report, Boeing engineers and execs (some) blatantly lied to the FAA.

Any way, the entire debate about over whether two pilots should be reduced to one is based purely on the assertion from airline CEOs that pilots are too expensive. Those claims have never been proven, it’s CEO hearsay.

[PPRuNeUser0161]

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.
Mate I really feel for you and others like you in your position. FWIW Hex should never have been available for pilot's full stop, it's just not that type of profession. In light of the fact that you're already in I would not despair. One thing I can tell you after 30 plus years in this game is that a pilot surplus precedes a pilots shortage shortly thereafter. 5 years from now things will be looking much more positive and provided you stay in touch you should get a start if your still interested. In the mean time assess your options and if nothing presents maybe re-skill and start something else. You never know you might never look back. Whatever you do don't let it get you down and as hard as it is be positive about whatever your doing.

SN

[mattyj]

I don’t think there will be another episode of pandemic hysteria. Despite the fact that the media and the government is still trying to peddle that wheel as fast as they can, behind closed doors they admit the response was seriously flawed and fails the cost/benefit model that socialized medicine usually follows. This was a one time deal..even a real pandemic couldn’t justify the response we’ve had.

On the the other hand there’s still climate change waiting in the wings whether it’s real or imagined, it’s still possible it gets used politically to shoot aviation down again (and modern civilization with it)